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CentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
November2021
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
November2021
ThisquarterlybriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicyresearchaswellasconsultationsandsurveyswithleadingChiefEconomistsfromboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.
Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetotheglobaleconomiccrisistriggeredbytheCOVID-19pandemic.
2
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Contents
Monitoringfragilities______________________________________4Bankruptcies____________________________________________5Inflation_________________________________________________6Globalfinancialmarketrisks_______________________________8
Disentanglingdisruptionfromtrends:theoutlookforprices,wagesandglobalization___________________________________9
Theoutlookforprices_____________________________________9Theoutlookforwages___________________________________10Theoutlookforglobaleconomicintegration_________________11
Theoutlookforpolicy____________________________________13Managinginflation_______________________________________13Globalcoordination______________________________________14
Reflectionsonpolicylessonsfrom2021____________________17
References________________________________________________18
Contributors_______________________________________________20
Cover:UNSPLASH/AmyShamblen
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ChiefEconomistsOutlook
1.Monitoringfragilities
AswepublishtheNovemberChiefEconomistsOutlook,COVID-19isresurginginsomepartsoftheworld,theglobaleconomystillfindsitselfinmajordisequilibriumandthecostsoffightingclimatechangearestartingtocomeintoview.
Whileaone-size-fits-allapproachtofiscalandmonetarypolicywasoptimalacrosseconomiesintheearlystagesofthepandemic,theensuingdisruptionhasevolvedinsuchdisparatewaysacrossglobalmarketsandeconomiesthatnational-levelpolicytoolscannolongeraddressthecurrentchallengesinhomogeneousways.Instead,policy-makersarefacedwithcomplexdomesticandinternationaltrade-offsintheirpolicychoices,withoneexception:acceleratingvaccinations.
Thedeepestfaultlinehasemergedbetweeneconomieswithvaccineaccessandfiscalsupportandthosewithout.Limitedvaccineaccessisstillforcingprolongedlockdownsanddeepeningthehealthtollinsomepartsoftheworld,whilelackoffiscalresourcesisexacerbatingeconomicandsocialscarsfrombankruptciesandunemployment.Workersandbusinessesineconomieswithlargeinformalsectorshavebeen
particularlyhardhit.Almostoneyearaftervaccinationcampaignsbegan,only3.7%ofthepopulationinlow-incomecountrieshavereceivedatleastonedoseversus61%ofthepopulationinhigh-incomecountries.1Untilthepandemichasbeenconqueredeverywhere,therecontinuetobemajorrisksfromthevirustrajectoryandthereforetheglobaleconomicrecoveryforall.
Onaccountofsuchanew,moreaggressivevariantthatspreadrapidlyacrosstheworld,growthforecastshadtobereviseddownwardsinthelatestprojections.ThedistributionofprojectionsbyChiefEconomistSurveyrespondentshasalsoshifteddownwardsincetheJuneeditionanduncertaintyhasincreased.2TheIMFpredicts5.9%globalgrowthforthisyear,downfrom6%(withsomemajordownwardadjustmentsforindividualcountries);theOECDrevisedits2021forecastsdownto5.7%initsSeptemberInterimOutlook.3
Beyondthevirustrajectory,thetopriskstotherecoveryhavestartedtochangefromafeareddelayedwaveofbankruptciestopolicymistakesinmanagingevolvinginflationdynamics,especially
therepercussionsonfinancialmarketsinemergingeconomies.
UNDP,dataasof6October2021.
WorldEconomicForum,2021.
IMF,2021;OECD,2021a.
4
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Whatisyourglobalgrowthforecastfor2021?
Octobersurvey
Junesurvey
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Lessthan
4.5-5%
4.5-5%
5.5-6%
6-6.5%
Morethan
4.5%
6.5%
Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021
Bankruptcies
Earlierthisyear,asnotedinourJuneOutlook,potentialsourcesofriskthatmightderailtherecovery,butforwhichlittledatawasavailableatthetime,includedadelayedwaveofbankruptcies.Atthesametime,therewasafearthatanoverextensionofgovernmentsupportwouldkeepunviablefirmsartificiallyalive.
Fivemonthson,thereisnewevidenceonthenumberofbankruptciesandtheeffectinadvancedeconomiesoffiscalpolicyincontainingtheworstofthefallout.Recentempiricalworksuggeststhatfiscalmeasuresweresuccessfulintreadingthefinelinebetweenavertingbothbankruptciesandzombificationoffirms.4Forsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs),wheretheriskoffailurewashighest,thestudyfindsthatfailureratesofSMEsincreasedby4.3percentagepoints,whentheywouldhaveincreasedby
9percentagepointswithoutgovernmentsupport(significantlymoresoinemergingmarkets).Inadvancedeconomiesthefailurerateevendecreased.Thecounterfactualforbusinessfailuresin2021withoutpolicysupportfurthersuggeststhatfailureswouldhavebeenonlymarginallyhigherthantheywerethisyear,implyingthattheinitialemergencysupportdidnotleadtosignificantzombificationoffirms.Overall,theeffectofstimuluspackageswasfoundtobeconcentratedonthedomesticeconomy,withfewpositivespilloversinternationally.
Eventhoughthefearedwaveof
bankruptcieshassofarnotmaterialized,
andprojectionssuggestthatthe
numberoffailedfirmsbeingkeptartificially
aliveislow,somecentralbanksaresaid
tobepreparingadditionalbackstopsin
theformofbond-buyingprogrammesto
safeguardagainstanypotentialtroublesand
furtherreducetheriskofafailedphase-out
ofemergencymeasures.5
Gourinchasetal.,2021.
Bloomberg,2021.
5
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Inflation
Pricesurgeshaveemergedinmanysectorsoftheeconomy,andthemultiplicityofcauseshasledtodivergingviewsonthemostlikelytrajectoryforinflation.Thereisdisagreementoverseveraldimensionsoftheevolvingdynamics,whichmakesitchallengingtofindtheoptimalpolicyresponses.Openquestionsinclude:(1)towhatextentpricesaredrivenbytoomuchdemandvs.risingcosts(overheatingvs.stagflation);(2)whetherpricesinisolatedmarketsorthegeneralpricelevelarerising;and(3)howinflationexpectationsarelikelytoevolve.
Overheatingorstagflationinadvancedeconomies?Viewsamongsurveyrespondentsareverymuchdividedastowhetherthegreaterriskinadvancedeconomiesistoomuchdemand,leadingtooverheating,orrapidlyrisingcostsonthesupplyside,leadingtostagflation–increasingpriceswithsimultaneouslyslowergrowth.AggregatesavingswentupinmostOECDcountriesoverthecourseofthe
Overheatingiscurrently
ahigherriskthanstagflationinadvancedeconomies.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Strongly Agree Uncertain Disagree Strongly
agree disagree
pandemicforvariousreasons,includingbuild-upofprecautionarysavings,feweropportunitiestospendandnon-targetedstimuluspayments.
Similarly,inthecorporatesector,companiesbuiltuplargecashreserves.Forlargerfirms,loosemonetarypolicyandfiscalstimulusspendinghasledtounprecedentedprofitmargins:intheUS,theS&P500averageoperatingmarginiscloseto13.55%inQ32021,upfrom6%in2020andcloseto3percentagepointshigherthaninQ42019.6Spendingthishouseholdandcorporatecashtooquicklyaseconomiesfullyreopencouldleadtooverheating.
Atthesametime,costshavebeenrisingwithhighpass-throughratestoconsumers.Whilesomesupply-sidebottleneckshavebeenlimitedtospecificmarkets,othersaffectawiderangeofgoods.Firstandforemostamongthelatterhavebeentransportandshipping,aswellasenergy.Shouldthesedynamicspersist,thereisariskthattheywillchokeofftherecovery.
Thecurrentsituationisoneofpriceincreasesinspecificproductmarketsratherthanoneofgeneralinflation.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Strongly Agree Uncertain Disagree Strongly
agree disagree
Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021 Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021
6 Armstrong,2021.
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ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Isolatedpricepressuresorgeneralinflation?Anotherpointofcontentionamongexpertsiswhetherweareseeingageneralriseintheoverallpricelevelorwhetherpricepressuresarecontainedwithinspecificproductmarkets.Again,2021hashadelementsofboth.Theworldeconomyisstillmarkedbyamultiplicityofdisequilibria,whichhavebeenduetobothsupplyanddemandshocks.Atthesametime,therehavebeenpricesurgesinsomeimportantinputmarkets,inparticularenergy,whichcouldaffectoverallpricelevelsandtriggerwage-pricespiralsiftheypersist.
Whetherornotisolatedpriceriseswillbecomegeneralinflationwilltoanimportantextentdependonexpectations.Anumberofsurveyrespondentsbelievethatinflationexpectationswillindeedremainanchoredataround2%(atleastincountrieswithnorecenthyperinflationexperience),yetthemajorityareuncertain.
Oneimportantreasonwhyinflationexpectationshavestayedanchoredsofaristhereputationindependentcentralbankshavebuiltupovertheyearsforsticking
totheirmandateofpricestability.TheJuneChiefEconomistsSurveyconfirmedtheexpectationthatmajorcentralbankswillcontinuetoprioritizepricestability,despitetheadditionofnewmandatesonemploymentandclimatechangeforsome.7Indeed,severalcentralbankshavestartedraisingratesinresponsetopricedynamics,includingNewZealand,8Norway,9BrazilandRussia.Inlower-andmiddle-incomecountrieswithlesscentralbankcredibilityandlessanchoredinflationexpectations,however,pricepressureshavebeenbuildingmorequicklyandareatagreaterriskofgettingoutofhand.10
Inflationexpectationswillremainanchoredaround2%despiteanintermittentperiodofhigherinflation.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Strongly Agree Uncertain Disagree Strongly
agree disagree
Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021
WorldEconomicForum,2021.
BBC,2021.
Reuters,2021.
TheEconomist,2021
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ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Globalfinancialmarketrisks
Ascentralbanksinadvancedeconomies,inparticulartheUSFederalReserve,arestartingtotightenmonetaryconditions,theriskthatsuchpolicyactiontriggerscrisesinlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesrises.Currenciesweaken,creatingevenmoreinflationarypressureswhilemakingithardertopaybackdollar-denominateddebt.Inaddition,currentfluctuationsinfoodandenergypricesarehurtinghouseholdsmore,sincethelattertakeupalargershareofconsumptionbaskets.Thisisanevenbiggerproblemforcountriesthatarenetimportersoffoodandenergy.Overall,thegrowthoutlook
foremergingmarketsisweak.IMFprojectionssuggestthatthegroupof
Thecapitalflowreversalriskforemergingmarketsiscurrently:
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Very Low Uncertain High Very
low high
emerginganddevelopingeconomies(excludingChina)willstillbe5.5%belowthepre-COVIDgrowthtrendin2024,whileadvancedeconomiesareexpectedto
be0.9%abovetrendonaverage.11Themajorityofsurveyrespondentsregardtheriskofcapitaloutflowsfromemergingmarketstobehigh,andespecially
soinmarketswheremacroeconomicfundamentalsareunsound.
Ontheotherhand,recentjittersinChina’sreal-estatesectortriggeredbybonddefaultsofsomemajorcorporatesareseenas
lessworryingfortheglobaleconomy.Thesituationisassessedbysurveyrespondentsasonethatcanberesolvedbydomesticpolicyandthatcarriesalowriskofinternationalcontagion.
TheriskofglobalcontagionresultingfromincreasingdefaultratesofChina’scorporatebondmarketiscurrently:
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Very Low Uncertain High Very
low high
Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021 Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021
11 IMF,2021.
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ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Disentanglingdisruptionfromtrends:theoutlookforprices,wages
andglobalization
Anumberofpowerfulforcesarepullingtheglobaleconomyindifferentdirectionsandseemtobereversing,atleastforabriefpost-crisismoment,long-standingpatternssuchasdeflationarytrends,adeclininglabourshareofincomeandglobalintegration.Thequestiononmanyobservers’mindsis:howlongwillthislast?Areweseeingtruetrendreversalsorareinflation,labourshortages,wageincreasesandglobaldisruptionmomentaryphenomenamarkingtheaftermathofoneofthedeepesteconomiccrisesofthepast100years?Surveyresponsespointtoawidemixofcompetingforcesthatareshapingpost-COVID-19dynamics.
Theoutlookforprices
Sincethefirstupticksininflationstartedappearinginpriceindicesearlierthisyear,viewshaveshiftedfromseeingsuchdevelopmentsasashortepisodetorealizingthatthegreentransitioninparticularcouldbecomeadriveroflong-termimpactsonpricelevels.
Pricepressureshavearisenfromsourcesasvariedaspent-updemand,changesinbehaviouralpatternsduetoCOVID-19(inparticularforgoodsenablingthedigital
economy),stimulusspending,shortagesinbuildingmaterials,supplydisruptionsduetorenewedlockdownsandreducedshippingcapacitiesorsimplybaseeffects.Productsandservicesthathavesufferedsuchtemporarypricesurgeshaveincludedusedcars,lumberandcontainershipping.12Lumberprices,forexample,surgedinthespring,butjustasrapidlydroppedbacktotheirpre-pandemiclevelsoverthecourseofJuneandJuly.Anumberofsurveyrespondentsfurtherplaceenergypricehikesinthetemporarycategory.
Inothercases,pricesmayberisinginthelongerterm.Forsomeproducts,surveyrespondentsexpectlonger-lastingsupplypressures–forexample,inthecaseofsemiconductorsandmicrochipsasmoreoftheglobaleconomymovesonline.Secondly,thegreentransitioncanbeexpectedtoaddresourceandproductioncoststopricesacrosstheeconomy.Energycostswillhavetoincreasebydesignandareexpectedtostayelevatedwhileittakestimefordemandtoshift,renewablessupplytoexpandandproductivitygainsfromgreeninvestmentsandtechnologytocomethrough.Somerespondentsalsoexpectincreasesinhousingpricesaswellasrentinflationtobelonger-termphenomena.Inaddition,greater
12 Tooze,2021.
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ChiefEconomistsOutlook
protectionismcanbeexpectedtobeadriverofinflationarypressuresascanwages.Thedynamicsofthelatterarediscussedinmoredetailbelow.
Onbalance,surveyrespondentsexpectcurrentlevelsofinflationtobeashort-termphenomenonoverthenext1–2years,withthecaveatthatenergyandhousingpricesmightbeonanupwardtrendforlonger(butlesssteepthanrecentenergypricehikes).Overall,thereisconfidencethatcentralbankswillremaindeterminedandabletokeepinflationincheck.13
Theoutlookforwages
TheCOVID-19crisis,togetherwithevolvinglong-termtrends,isshiftingemployees’bargainingpowerandhasbeenlifting
thewagesofdifferentgroupsofworkers.Moregenerousunemploymentbenefitsandbetterprotectionforgigworkers(e.g.intheUS)haveallowedlow-paidservice-sectorworkerstoinsistondecentpayashospitalityandretailbusinesseshavestartedtorehire.Reservationwages(thelowestwageatwhichapersonwouldacceptemployment)seemtobestayinghigher,evenasunemploymentsupportisbeingphasedout.Manyservice-sectorjobsremainunfilledtodate,eventhoughunemploymentratesarestillhigherthanbeforethecrisis.Insomecases,newimmigrationrestrictionsarecontributingtolabourshortagesintheservicesector.
Inadifferentpartoftheeconomy,acceleratingtrendssuchasfurtherdigitalizationandthenet-zerotransitionarerapidlyshiftingskillsdemandswhilesystems
havenotyetadaptedtoprovidingtherightreskillingandupskillingopportunities.Thishasledtoawarfortalent,inparticularingreenanddigitalskills,whichisdrivingupwages.14Wagepressuresarethusformingacrosslow-andhigh-skilledoccupations,whicharebothexperiencinglabourshortages.Demographicsinmanyadvancedeconomiescanbeexpectedtobeacompoundingforce.
Newevidenceisalsoemergingthatproductivityhasbeenpickinguppost-crisisascompanieshavestreamlinedprocessesduringthecrisisandarebattlingpost-COVID-19labourshortageswithmoreautomation.15Inaddition,thepandemicappearstohaveledtoworkersmovingfromlower-tech,low-productivityfirmstotech-savvy,high-productivityfirms,whichwereabletoexpandduringthecrisis.16ProjectionsfortheUSare2%oftotalfactorproductivitygrowthin2021asopposedtocloseto0%annualgrowthforthedecadebeforethecrisis.17OECDforecastsconfirm
pick-upinlabourproductivitygrowthacrosshigh-incomecountries.18Ifthisisindeedthecase,workerswillbeabletobargainforalargershareofagrowingpieasproductivityisupandfirmsarecompetingfortalent.
Anupwardpressurethatwillnotbringgainsinrealwagestoworkerscouldbearisingfromde-anchoredinflationexpectationsineconomieswithrecentinflationexperience.
Atthesametime,theautomationoftasksthatacceleratedduringthecrisiswillcontinuetoputdownwardpressureonthewagesofthemiddle-skilledworkersitis(in
SeealsoWorldEconomicForum,2021.
Kimbrough,2021aand2021b.
Sandbu,2021.
Andrewsetal.,2021.
OzyildirimanddeVries,2021.
OECD,2021b.
10
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
somecasespartially)replacing.19Inaddition,therealizationthatsometaskscanbedoneremotelywiththesamelevelofproductivitywillincreaseglobalcompetitionforcertainjobs.Shiftsinactivityawayfromcertainsectors(e.g.businesstravel)willalsoleadtodownwardwagepressures.Overall,somestrongforcescurtailingworkers’bargainingpowerremain.
Surveyrespondentsinthemajorityseewagegainsasashort-tomedium-termphenomenonthatisawelcomedevelopmentinthebattleagainstinequality,yetthatmayweakeninthelongertermasautomationandglobalcompetitionforlocaljobsagaindominatebargainingdynamics.
Theoutlookforglobaleconomicintegration
Globalintegrationisbeingpulledinmanydirections.Asmultilateralismandeconomiccoordinationareseeingarevival,economiclinkagesonthegroundarefragmenting.Someofthefragmentationisexpected
toremaintemporaryandcloselyrelatedtothecrisis,yetotherforcesmightdrivedisintegrationinthelongerterm.
Globalvaluechains:Globalvaluechainshavebeenexperiencingaseriesofdisruptions,beginningwithemergencyshutdownsandborderclosuresandcontinuingwithrawmaterialandintermediateinputshortages,staffshortages,missingcontainersandships,andcongestedports.Manyofthesebottlenecksshouldclear
upaspent-updemandeases,lockdownsarelifted,workersreturnandportsbecomedecongested.
Therearealso,however,forceslikelytocontinueeatingawayatglobalintegrationviavalue-chainlinkagesinthelongerterm.
19AutorandSalomons,2018;Egglestoneetal.,2021.
Resilienceconsiderationswillbeincreasinglyreflectedinnewproductionnetworksintheformofparallelsupplychains(a“just
incase”replacingthe“justintime”productionlogic).Secondly,drivenbymuch-neededenvironmentalpolicy,productionmaybemovedclosertomarketstoavoidmoreexpensiveshipping.Lastly,governmentsmaybetempted
toresorttoprotectionistmeasuresinordertoalleviatedomesticpressuresandgeopoliticalrisks,drivingfragmentationinsupplychainsforstrategicindustriessuchassemiconductors,electricvehicles,pharmaceuticals,microchipsandbatteries.
Geopolitics:SurveyrespondentsexpecttoseecontinuedrivalrybetweentheUSandChinaintherealmoftechnologydevelopmentsandthefurtherbuild-outoftwocompetingtechhubs(andmoregenerallybetweenChinaandotherAsianeconomies).SchismsinvaluesbetweenChina,theUSandEuropeareexpectedtobecomeincreasinglyapparentinadata-driveneconomywhereissuesofprivacyanddataownershippredominate.
Atthesametime,thereisstilldemandforgreaterglobalintegration,inparticularfromlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Businesslogicisfurtherexpectedtocontinueto
fallonthesideofintegrationbothontheproductionsideandthemarket-accessside.Globalintegrationwilltoanimportantextentbehelpedbytheprogressingdigitalizationofworkingarrangements(allowingforgreaterintegrationofservicesindustries)andplatform-baseddistributionchannels.Thelockdownsof2020revolutionizedworkingarrangementsinwhite-collarindustriesbyremovingphysicalandpsychologicalbarrierstoworkingindifferentlocationsandasynchronously.Ontheconsumptionside,itishopedthatdigital
11
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
platformswillcontinuetodriveintegrationbyprovidingsmallerfirmswithaccesstoglobalmarkets.Itwasalsopointedoutthatweareseeingare-emerginginterestinjoiningregionaltradeagreements,suchastheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP)andtheComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership(CPTPP).
Whenitcomestorestoringtheglobaleconomytoafunctioningsystem,thefirstorderofbusinesswillneedtobefindingaglobalapproachtovaccinedistribution.Failuretodosowillbeamajorcentrifugal
forceworkingagainstglobalintegration.Amultilateralapproachtovaccineandrecoveryfinancingwillgoalongwaytowardsstitchingtheglobaleconomybacktogether.Lookingfurtherintothefuture,nothinglessthanthesurvivaloftheplanetwilldependonglobalcooperationandcoordination.
Onbalance,surveyrespondentsviewglobalfragmentationasamedium-termphenomenon,withtheexpectationandhopethattheglobalchallengeshumanityisfacingwilleventuallyfocusmindsandforcetheadoptionofaglobalmindset.
Onbalance,arethebelowdynamicsmoretemporaryormorepermanent?
Inflation
Wageincreases
Globaldivergence
25
20
15
10
5
0
Fleeting Short-term Medium-term Long-term
(<1yr) (1-2yr) (2-5yr) (5-10yr)
Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021
12
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Theoutlookforpolicy
Managinginflation
Thereisastrongconsensusthatmonetaryandfiscalpolicyworkedwelltogether
inadvancedeconomiestosoftentheeconomicimpactofthepandemic.DrawingonthelessonsoftheGlobalFinancialCrisisin2008–2009,governmentsactedswiftlytoprovideliquiditytomarketsandemergencyfundingtohouseholdsandbusinesses.Todifferentdegrees,governmentshavebeentakingadvantageoftheopportunitytoputtheireconomiesonamoresustainableandinclusivetrack,earmarkingpartsofthestimuluspackagesformoregreenandsocialspending.20
Monetarypolicyhasbeenplayinganaccommodativeroleallalongandworriesaboutdebtsustainabilityinadvancedeconomieshadallbutdisappearedin2020,withinterestratesclosetozero.Yetthethreatofinflationbecomingentrenchedisputtingcentralbanksinthesituationofhavingtocooldownpricepressureswhilenotabruptlychokingofftherecovery.Whilecentralbanks’inflation-fightingcredentialsarestillstrong,thereisaquestionabouthowpotentmonetarypolicywillbeindampeningthemixofprice
pressurescurrentlyputtingstressontheglobaleconomy.
Viewsamongsurveyrespondentsonthisquestionareverydivided,withequalnumbers(strongly)agreeingand(strongly)disagreeingonthestatementthat“monetarypolicyisaneffectivetooltodealwithcurrentpricesurges”.
Shoulditturnouttobethecasethatoverheatingisthemostimportantforcedrivinginflation,monetarypolicywouldindeedbethemosteffectivetooltocombatit.Thereare,however,alsotheelementsoftemporarydisequilibria,includingsupplyandshippingbottlenecks,aswellaslonger-termfactors
–suchastheadditionalcostsimposedbyagreentransitionandfragmentationofglobalmarkets–thataredrivingpricedevelopments.Inthesecases,thebestresponseseemstobeamixofrapidvaccinedistributiontoendlockdowns(andhencesupplybottlenecks),protectingglobalintegrationbymeansoftradepolicy,andensuringthatpricepressuresarisingfromthegreentransitionarebornebythosewhocanmostaffordit.Itwasalsopointedout,though,thattheremaybeacasefornormalizingmonetarypolicyinordertorebuildresilienceandpolicyspaceforfuturecrises.
20 SeeWorldEconomicForum,2021,foradiscussion.
13
ChiefEconomistsOutlook
Monetarypolicyisthemosteffectivetooltodealwithcurrentpricesurges.
10
8
6
4
2
0
Strongly Agree Uncertain Disagree Strongly
agree disagree
Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,October2021
Globalcoordination
Restoringinternationalconvergencewillneedtobecomeapriorityformultilateralaction.
Recoveryfinancing:Inordertodealwiththeimmediateaftermathoftheglobaleconomiccrisisandendthepandemicfirstandforemost,theIMFhasproposeda$50billionpackagetofinancevaccinedistributiontothepoorestcountries.Inaddition,therehasbeenareallocationofIMFSpecialDrawingRightstolow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinordertosupportthecrisisrecovery.Despitethis,expectationsamongsurveyrespondentsaredividedoverwhethersufficientfinancingcanberaisedtorapidlyendthepandemiceverywhere.Otherchannelsforinternationalconvergencewillneedtoplayanequallyimportantrole.
Globaltaxcoordination:TheOECDdealonaminimumlevelofcorporatetaxationformultinationalenterprises(MNEs)representsahistoricalmomentinglobal
fiscalcoordination,with136countriesagreeingtoaminimumglobaltaxrateof15%.Thehopeisthatthiswillprotectandboostcountries’sourcesofrevenue.Yetsomeobservershavepointedoutthatthedealcouldbeadaptedtoallowlow-andmiddle-incomecountriestocollectagreatershareoftheglobaltaxtake.Arecentstudy,forexample,hasshownthatgainsintaxrevenuesforEastAsiancountriesarenegligibleunderthenewdeal.21Themajorityofsurveyrespondentsareuncertainastowhetheritwillbepossibletomaketherecentdealastrongerforceforconvergenceinthefuture.Ye
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