房地产市场风险中英文对照外文翻译文献

中英文对照外文翻译(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文:TheresearchofriskpreventioninrealestatemarketAbstractOnApril2,2007,thesecondlargestintheUnitedStatessubprimemortgagecompanynewcenturyfinancialfiledforbankruptcyprotectiontosign,theUSsubprimemortgagecrisis.InSeptember2008,America'sfourth-largestinvestmentbankLehmanbrothersfiledforbankruptcyprotectionforlogo,America'ssubprimecrisiscouldworsen.Thefinancialindustry,withthefurtherdevelopmentofthesubprimecrisis,thecrisisofanindustrybegantospreadtothevarietyoftherealeconomy,retail,autoindustry,cateringindustry,andotherfieldsofsalesdecline,shrinkingdemandsituation.Notonlythat,influencedbythesubprimecrisis,thedomesticunemploymentrising,continuetodollardepreciation,thestockindexcontinuestodecline,realestatepricescontinuetofall,fallingconsumerconfidenceindex,economicprospectsaregrim.Contradictionsintherealestateindustryhasbeenhighlighted,realestatedevelopmentprojectisoverlydependentonbankcapital,transferalltherisktocommercialBanks,thecommercialBanksfacehugerealestatefinancialrisks,isoneoftheprominentcontradictions.Thisriskoncetheoutbreak,posesagreatthreattotheentiresystemwillbe.Therefore,studyhowtopreventtherealestatefinancialriskshasthesignificanttheoryandrealisticsignificance.Keywords:Realestate;Financialrisk;Bankloan1IntroductionRealestateindustryisahigh-riskindustry,realestatefinanceinsupportoftherapiddevelopmentoftherealestateindustryatthesametime,inevitablybearstheriskofrealestateindustry.Financeasthemainsuppliersofrealestatefunds,onceappear,thefinancialcrisis,thefinancialsectorfundsproblems,willinfluencethedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.Multipliereffectintherealestateindustry,realestateloansinbankportfoliosaccordinglytriggeramultipliereffect,andthiswillleadtoincreaseofbank'srisk.Whenrealestatepricescontinuetofall,realestatemortgageguaranteefoundationwillbeweakened,andrealestatefinancialrisksiscumulative,oncetheoutbreak,willexpandrapidly,alargeareaofthefinancialturmoil.Themaincharacteristicofthispaperliesintheintegrateduseofknowledgeoffinance,statistics,theoreticalanalysisandempiricalanalysis,qualitativeanalysiswithquantitativeanalysis,generalanalysisandspecificanalysisthewayofcombininganalysisofrealestatefinancialrisks,thecommercialbankloanbalancerelationsempiricaltestwiththetheoryofrealestateprices,realestatepricesisnotcontenttogetbankloansisgrangercausetestresults,butsetupanewvariable,therealestatepriceandthebankloanandtherelationshipbetweenaspecificindexofgrangercausalitytestagain.Finallyonthebasisoftestresults,intheaspectofreadingalargenumberofrelevantliteraturesbasis,putforwardadviceonhowtopreventtherealestatefinancialrisksincommercialbank.2Literaturereview2.1TheoryresearchDavis(2008)fromtheperspectiveoftheborrowerandthebankdemonstratestherealestatepriceswillaffectthebankcredit.Theauthorsthinkthatrealestatepricechangesaffecttheborrower'sexpectationsoftheirwealth,willaffecttheirconsumptionplans,andfurtheraffecttheircreditdemand.Andfromtheperspectiveofthebank,thebanklendingforrealestatedevelopmentloansandrealestateassetsmortgageisoneofthemostinallofitsloanbusinesspro-cyclicalcharacteristics,themostvolatileassets.Herring(2009)basedontheinternationalperspective,thestudyontherelationshipbetweentherealestatebubbleandthebankingcrisis,thecreditmarketmodelwasconstructed,causedtherealestatebubbleispointedoutthatthefocusofbankloans,realestatebubblewouldbelikelytocauseabankingcrisis.Gale(2009)proposedtheassetpricemodelbasedoncreditexpansion,thinktheassetsonthebasisofvalueisformedbytheinvestorstouseitsownfundsassetprices,wheninvestorsuseborrowedmoneytoinvest,asinvestorstoborrowmoneyonlyforlimitedliability,theyappeartobemorepreferenceforriskassets,sowillcontinuetopushupassetprices.Inthetheory,thebankloanistheimportantreasonfortheformationofassetbubbles.Krug(2010)throughthestudy,almostalloftherealestatebubbleiscausedbythebankfinancing.Collins(2010)pointedoutthatwhenrealestateprices,thebankwaswillingtoeaselendingconditionsandprovidemorerealestateloans,proposedalinkontherealestateindustryandeconomiccycleoftransmissionmechanism,andstressedthatinthecaseofweakregulationandforeigncapitalinflows,theroleofthemechanismmaybeenlarged.2.2EmpiricalresearchCoolly(2012)ofsoutheastAsiafinancialcrisisinrealestatepricesandGDPpercapita,loanbalancevectorautoregressionanalysis,pointsoutthatrealestatepriceswillriseinsixquartersofloansincrease.Hofmann(2013)of20majorindustrializedcountriesrealestatepricesandGDP,therelationshipbetweeninterestratesandlendingwasstudied,andfoundthatthe20countriesinthecountrycanrefusetounder10%significancelevelrealestatepricesandGDPandbankloansnullhypothesisdoesnotexistco-integrationrelationship,andfurtherpointsoutthatthechangesintherealestatepricecyclewillleadtothechangeofthebankcreditcycleforalongtime.Davis(2010),selectedsampledataof17countriesoncommercialrealestatepricesandtherelationshipbetweenthebanklendinghascarriedontheempiricalanalysis,itisconcludedthatrealestatepriceswillleadtotheconclusionofbankcreditexpansion.3CommercialBanksandrealestatefinancialrisks3.1RealestatefinanceManyscholarshavedonehowtodefinetheconnotationandextensionoftherealestatefinancialaspectsofthediscussionandresearch.Iswidelyrecognized,realestatefinancegeneralizedreferstoallandhousingdevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementoffinancingactivitiesrelatedtotheeconomicactivityandthenarrowsenseofrealestatefinancereferstothenonprofithousingagenciesorconsumerwiththeresidentsofhousingdevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementandothereconomicactivitiesrelatedtothefinancingactivities.Inthisstudy,tendtousethebroadscopeofrealestatefinance,andrealestatefinanceisinrealestatedevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementintheprocessofaseriesofthefloorboardofthefinancialactivities,includingthroughcurrencycirculationandcreditchannelofmonetaryfinancing,financingandotherrelatedfinancialactivities.Thebasicfunctionofrealestatefinanceisbyusingavarietyoffinancialinstrumentsandtoolsfortherealestateindustryandraisemoney,forthedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,circulationandconsumptiontoprovidefinancialsupport,toensurethesmoothprogressoftherealestatedevelopmentactivities.Accordingtothetypesofbusinesscanputtherealestatefinanceisdividedintofivecategories,absorptionoftherealestateindustry,housingsavingsdepositandlendingforrealestate,realestateinvestmentpawn,trust,insurance,currencysettlementandrealestateagentsinsecuritiesofferings.Accordingtotheserviceobjectcanbetherealestatefinanceisdividedintotwocategories,fortherealestateindustryofrealestatedevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementactivitiessuchastheserviceof"realestatefinancial"andfortheresidentsoftheresidentialbuilding,purchasing,maintenance,anddecorationandconsumptionactivitiessuchasservice"housingfinance".Realestatefinanceisthegreatcombinationoffinancialactivityandtherealestateindustry.Firstofall,therealestatefinancetoasymmetric,theborrowerusuallyinproportiontopayasmallamountofdownpaymentfortherighttousehouse,thenborrowtherestofthemoneyfromfinancialinstitutions,amortization:secondly,therealestateloanrepaymentsguaranteed,iftheborrowercan'ttimelypayment,sothemortgagehouses,carsandotherpropertywillbeingreclaimedbylenders,thenrealizedbythemortgagedpropertytooffsetloanlosses.3.2SummariesofrealestatefinancialrisksRealestatefinanceriskreferstothefinancialinstitutions,realestatefinancebusiness,duetothedecision-makingerrors,poormanagementorthechangeintheobjectiveenvironmentcausesthereturnonassets,orthepossibilityofcreditlosses.Generalrealestatefinancialriskreferstoasystemofrealestatefinancefacesalltherisk,notjustreferstoafinancialinstitutionoraprojectrisks.Typicalrealestaterisk,theriskofcommercialBanksarefacing,asintherealestatefinancebusinesswillalsoencounter,onlyformdifferent,hereisatypicalrealestatefinancialrisks,mainlyincludes:3.2.1InterestrateriskIntherealestatefinancebusiness,thecommercialbankisthemainbasisriskandoptionrisk.BasisriskreferstothereprisingofassetsandliabilitiesoftimeevenifBanksarethesame,butaslongasthedepositinterestrateandloaninterestrateadjustmentisnotcompletelyconsistent,Bankswillfacetherisk.Thedecisionisnotcommercialbankdepositandlendingrates,islikelytoseethecentralbankinordertoachievecontroltargetandmaketheregulationrangeofthetwoisnotconsistent,theprofitspacemaybecompressed,commercialBanksfacealoss;Optionreferstotheriskduetovariousreasonsinadvanceiftheborrowerrepaythehousingloanprincipalandinterestofrisk.Ifthecentralbankcutinterestratescontinuously,rationalandwillhavetheabilityofborrowerstorepaytheoutstandingloanlentalowerinterestrateofloan,thedefaultbehaviorwillmakethecommercialbankprofitlosses.3.2.2TheriskofdefaultAccordingtothereasons,itcanbedividedintomoralcreditriskandtheriskofcreditmoralcreditrisk.Inrealestatefinancebusiness,themoralityriskreferstotheborrowerhastheabilitytoclearlyreimbursement,butduetointerest,maliciousordeferredpaymentisdirectlytostoppayingandbringstothecommercialbankcreditrisk.Themoralhazardreferstotheborrowerundertheinfluenceofthefactorsofforcemajeureunabletocompletethecreditriskcausedbypayment.Amongthem,themoralityiscancontrolandmanagecreditrisk,thecurrentpromotingcreditreportingsystemisoneofthepreventivemeasures.Accordingtotheobjectcanbedividedintodevelopersdefaultriskandpersonalriskofdefault.3.2.3SystemicriskAlsoitiscalledundiversifiablerisk,policyrisk,mainlyinvolvedinthebusinessofrealestatefinanceeconomiccyclicalfluctuationrisk,purchasingpowerrisk,etc.Inordertopreventahousingbubbleaftertheinternationalfinancialcrisis,countriesenactedsomeinhibitionoftherealestatemarketeconomicpoliciesandregulations,whichhaveanimpactontherealestatemarket,indirectaffectthedevelopmentofrealestatefinancebusinessandinnovation,sothepolicyriskcancausealosstocommercialBanks.Economiccyclefluctuationoneconomicblowishuge,andcannotbespreadout,whentheeconomyisinalow,therealestatemarketarenotimmunetothepossibilityofconsiderablecommercialbanklosses.Purchasingpowerrisk,alsoknownasinflation,changesinthepricelevelleadstotherealburdenofborrowersandlendersandrealearningsuncertainty,thepossibilityofactuallossofthecommercialBanks.译文:房地产市场风险防范研究摘要2007年4月2日，以美国第二大次级抵押贷款公司新世纪金融公司申请破产保护为标志，美国次贷危机爆发。2008年9月巧日，以美国第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟公司申请破产保护为标志，美国次贷危机恶化。随着次贷危机的进一步发展，金融行业一个行业的危机开始向多种实体经济蔓延，零售业、汽车业、餐饮业等多个领域出现销售下降、需求萎缩的状况。不仅如此，受次贷危机的影响，美国国内失业率持续攀升，美元持续贬值，股指持续下滑，房地产价格持续下跌，消费者信心指数持续走低，经济前景堪忧。房地产业的各种矛盾也不断凸显出来，房地产开发项目过度依赖银行资金，把风险全部转移给商业银行，使商业银行面对巨大的房地产金融风险，就是其中的一个突出矛盾。这一风险一旦爆发，对整个体系将造成巨大威胁。因此，研究如何防范房地产金融风险具有重大的理论和现实意义。关键词：房地产；金融风险；银行贷款1引言房地产业是一个高风险的行业，房地产金融在支撑房地产业迅速发展的同时，不可避免地承担了房地产业的高风险。金融业作为房地产资金的主要供给方，一旦出现金融危机，金融业的资金发生问题，就会影响房地产业的发展。房地产业的乘数效应，使得房地产贷款也相应地在银行的资产组合中引发乘数效应，这将导致银行风险的加大。当房地产价格持续下跌，房地产抵押贷款的担保基础就会被削弱，而房地产金融风险具有累积性，一旦爆发，便会迅速扩大，出现大面积的金融风波。本文的主要特点在于综合运用金融学、统计学知识，采取理论分析和实证分析、定性分析与定量分析、一般分析与特殊分析相结合的方式，对房地产金融风险进行分析，对商业银行贷款余额与房地产价格的理论关系进行实证检验，并不满足于得到的银行贷款是房地产价格格兰杰原因的检验结果，而是设立新的变量，对房地产价格与银行贷款某一具体指标的关系进行再一次的格兰杰因果关系检验。最后在检验结果的基础之上，在阅读大量相关方面文献基础之上，提出商业银行如何防范房地产金融风险的建议。2文献综述2.1理论研究方面Davis(2008)从借款人和银行的角度出发，论证了房地产价格会影响银行的信贷规模。作者认为房地产价格的变化影响借款人对自己财富的预期，进而影响他们的消费计划，进一步影响他们的信贷需求。而从银行的角度出发，银行发放的房地产开发贷款和房地产资产抵押贷款是其所有贷款业务中最具有“顺周期”特质、最容易波动的资产。Herring(2009)立足国际视角，对房地产泡沫和银行危机的关系进行研究，构建了信贷市场模型，指出银行的集中贷款导致了房地产泡沫，房地产泡沫将可能引发银行危机。Gale(2009)提出基于信贷扩张的资产价格模型，认为资产的基础价值是投资者运用自有资金进行投资所形成的资产价格，而当投资者运用借贷资金进行投资时，由于投资者对借贷资金只承担有限责任，他们更多地表现出对风险资产的偏好，因此会不断推高资产的价格。在该理论中，银行贷款是形成资产泡沫的重要原因。Krug(2010)经过研究指出，几乎所有的房地产泡沫都是由银行融资引起的。Collins(2010)指出当房地产价格上涨时，银行愿意放松贷款条件并提供更多的房地产贷款，提出了一个使房地产业和经济周期联系起来的传播机制，并强调在监管薄弱和外资流入的情况下，该机制的作用可能放大。2.2实证研究方面Coolly(2012)对东南亚金融危机爆发国家房地产价格与人均GDP、贷款余额进行了向量自回归分析，指出房地产价格将在贷款发放增加的6个季度内上涨。Hofmann(2013)对20个主要工业化国家的房地产价格与GDP、利率和贷款量的关系进行了研究，发现20个国家中有巧个国家可以在10%的显著性水平下拒绝房地产价格与GDP和银行贷款不存在协整关系的零假设，并进一步指出，房地产价格周期的变化在长期会导致银行信贷周期的变化。Davis(2010)选用17个国家的样本数据，对商用房地产价格和银行贷款之间的关系进行了实证分析，得出房地产价格的上涨会导致银行信贷扩张的结论。3商业银行与房地产金融风险3.1房地产金融许多学者都做过如何界定房地产金融的内涵及外延方面的探讨和研究。目前广为认可的说法是，广义的房地产金融是指所有与住房的开发、建设、交易、消费和经营等经济活动有关的资金融通活动，而狭义的房地产金融是指与居民或消费性的非营利住房机构的住房开发、建设、交易、消费和经营等经济活动有关的资金融通活动。在本文的研究中，倾向于使用房地产金融的广义范围，暨房地产金融是对房地产开发、建设、交易、消费和经