Incrementum比特币Kompass–2024年第二季度（英）

BitcoinCompass

Q22024

Ronald-PeterStöferle

MarkJ.Valek

1

TableofContent:

1.

NewsandSocialMedia

2.Bitcoin

3.Bitcoinvs.Altcoins

4.BitcoinComparisons

5.BitcoinSpotETF

6

.BitcoinOn-Chain

2

1.NewsandSocialMedia

“Idothinkbitcoinisthefirst[encryptedmoney]thathasthe

potentialtodosomethinglikechangetheworld.”

PeterThiel

3

News

•FinancialTimes,01/11/2024(EN):SECapprovesfirstspotbitcoinETFsinboosttocryptoadvocates(

link

)

•B,01/30/2024(EN):GoogleUpdatesAdvertisingPolicyforCrypto,AllowsETFAds(

link

)

•glassnode,02/27/2024(EN):SpeculationInBothDirections(

link

)

•Decrypt,03/07/2024(EN):SECPuntsonBlackRockBitcoinETFOptionsTrading(

link

)

•TheBlock,03/08/2024(EN):BlackRockplanstopurchasespotbitcoinETFsforitsGlobalAllocationFund(

link

)

•Decrypt,03/10/2024(EN):CoinbaseMetWithSECOverGrayscale'sProposedEthereumETF(

link

)

•CoinDesk,03/19/2024(EN):World'sLargestPensionFundSeeksInformationonBitcoinUnderPortfolioDiversificationPlan(

link

)

•Kaiko,03/25/2024(EN):TheReturnoftheFlashCrash(

link

)

•TheBlock,03/26/2024(EN):AnunidentifiedBitcoinaddressjustmoved$6billioninBTCtothreenewaddresses(

link

)

4

SocialMedia

ncrementum

CNBCTelevision,01/11/2024(EN)

GrayscaleCEOMichaelSonnensheinonbitcoinETFapproval:The

culminationof10yearsofwork

CNBCTelevision,01/12/2024(EN)

SECChairGensleronbitcoinETF

approval:Theunderlyingassetishighlyspeculativeandvolatile

glassnode,02/28/2024(EN)

TheBitcoinETFMultiplierEffect-TheWeekOn-chain09,2024(Bitcoin

OnchainAnalysis)

HooverInstitution,03/19/2024(EN)

WhyBitcoinWillTakeOverTheWorld:CoinbaseCEOBrianArmstrong

5

2.Bitcoin

“BitcoinislikeinvestingwithSteveJobsandApple…Ithinkweareinthefirstinningofbitcoinandit’sgotalongwayto

go”(22/10/2020,Bitcoin=12,855USD)

PaulTudorJones

6

BitcoinPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2011-2024YTD

Year

USD

EUR

GBP

AUD

CAD

CNY

JPY

CHF

INR

Average

2011

1,473.3%

1,526.8%

1,479.7%

1,474.9%

1,509.0%

1,402.6%

1,391.7%

1,480.2%

1,765.8%

1,500.5%

2012

186.2%

180.7%

173.9%

181.4%

178.6%

183.3%

222.7%

179.5%

196.9%

187.0%

2013

5,481.1%

5,257.9%

5,373.3%

6,404.5%

5,874.4%

5,323.1%

6,675.3%

5,342.7%

6,172.3%

5,767.2%

2014

-57.4%

-51.6%

-54.7%

-53.5%

-53.4%

-56.4%

-51.6%

-52.6%

-56.6%

-54.2%

2015

33.8%

49.1%

41.4%

50.1%

59.4%

40.0%

34.5%

34.9%

40.6%

42.7%

2016

124.9%

132.3%

168.7%

127.1%

118.3%

140.6%

118.5%

128.5%

130.9%

132.2%

2017

1,385.6%

1,202.1%

1,256.3%

1,274.1%

1,291.2%

1,292.2%

1,332.2%

1,322.1%

1,295.6%

1,294.6%

2018

-73.5%

-72.2%

-71.9%

-70.6%

-71.2%

-71.9%

-74.2%

-73.3%

-71.1%

-72.2%

2019

87.8%

92.1%

80.6%

88.7%

78.9%

90.2%

86.2%

85.2%

92.7%

86.9%

2020

305.0%

271.7%

292.9%

269.5%

297.0%

279.6%

285.0%

270.4%

314.6%

287.3%

2021

59.8%

71.6%

61.5%

69.3%

58.6%

55.5%

78.1%

64.6%

62.9%

64.6%

2022

-64.3%

-62.1%

-60.1%

-61.9%

-61.7%

-61.2%

-59.3%

-63.8%

-60.3%

-61.6%

2023

157.0%

149.3%

144.2%

157.1%

151.2%

164.5%

176.5%

133.9%

158.5%

154.7%

2024YTD

66.7%

70.4%

68.1%

74.0%

70.3%

69.5%

78.8%

78.6%

67.0%

71.5%

CAGR154.4%158.6%158.5%163.2%160.4%156.2%166.7%153.8%166.7%159.8%

Source:Glassnode,ReutersEikon(asof03/31/2024),IncrementumAG

7

AnnualizedPerformanceofBitcoin,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayof

theMonthandHelduntil03/31/2024(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May.

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

2011

145.44%

137.54%

140.80%

117.89%

100.22%

93.77%

97.12%

105.49%

114.73%

123.56%

126.43%

119.24%

2012

117.74%

121.09%

122.43%

123.03%

123.30%

120.23%

114.65%

115.04%

112.17%

115.25%

114.27%

114.11%

2013

107.52%

99.60%

82.80%

77.01%

79.02%

84.73%

84.00%

80.67%

81.83%

75.35%

49.26%

55.77%

2014

54.87%

61.92%

65.59%

66.64%

61.81%

62.06%

64.21%

68.48%

73.05%

76.39%

75.19%

79.27%

2015

88.04%

85.99%

87.80%

89.58%

91.42%

89.60%

89.02%

94.97%

95.61%

90.48%

87.46%

85.68%

2016

90.47%

87.77%

90.17%

89.58%

86.73%

82.60%

85.44%

88.85%

88.62%

86.47%

86.20%

80.83%

2017

82.16%

78.03%

82.02%

77.30%

65.16%

63.82%

61.91%

50.87%

54.58%

45.58%

36.88%

29.10%

2018

37.43%

36.79%

47.41%

41.03%

46.83%

52.10%

47.98%

51.22%

53.88%

56.31%

71.98%

74.49%

2019

79.82%

77.82%

76.25%

69.86%

55.07%

46.95%

52.03%

55.06%

61.21%

58.79%

67.67%

71.49%

2020

62.44%

67.44%

81.88%

70.21%

68.86%

72.62%

64.82%

65.37%

71.56%

61.27%

47.54%

31.65%

2021

28.12%

17.42%

6.32%

7.87%

26.14%

29.80%

22.16%

17.21%

21.61%

6.63%

9.65%

20.80%

2022

32.61%

29.05%

24.41%

37.80%

54.83%

113.84%

93.02%

120.86%

136.94%

140.65%

190.44%

220.19%

2023

162.76%

180.80%

149.52%

Source:Glassnode,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG*Purchasedate=lastdayofthemonth

8

PurchaseattheEndof

Q2/2018

Q3/2018

Q4/2018

Q1/2019

Q2/2019

Q3/2019

Q4/2019

Q1/2020

Q2/2020

Q3/2020

Q4/2020

Q1/2021

Q2/2021

Q3/2021

Q4/2021

Q1/2022

Q2/2022

Q3/2022

Q4/2022

Q1/2023

Q2/2023

Q3/2023

Q4/2023

Q1/2024

BitcoinPerformanceTriangle(USD),in%,Q1/2018-Q1/2024

-8.0-4.1-44.8-39.764.919.63.7-6.232.555.2319.9753.9400.9529.2570.8563.0171.4181.4139.6311.2340.2292.2515.7926.1

4.2-40.0-34.479.130.012.61.943.968.6356.2827.7444.1583.6628.8620.2194.8205.7160.3346.8378.2326.1568.91,014.8

-42.4-37.172.024.88.1-2.238.161.8337.9790.5422.3556.2599.5591.4183.0193.4149.8328.9359.0309.0542.1970.19.3198.7116.887.869.9140.0181.1660.71,447.0807.41,039.91,115.31,101.1391.6409.7334.0645.0697.5610.51,015.41,759.0

Q1/2018

Q2/2018

Q3/2018

Q4/2018

Q1/2019

Q2/2019

Q3/2019

Q4/2019

173.398.371.8

998.7

302.1

454.1

539.4

581.6

149.4

243.7

296.6

157.1

-5.9

29.7

49.6

942.8

281.6

425.9

506.9

595.9

154.6

250.9

305.0

119.5

-19.7

10.7

27.8

297.1

45.3

100.2

131.1

1,011.7

306.8

460.6

547.0

349.7

64.6

126.8

161.7

730.1

203.7

318.6

383.1

366.3

70.6

135.2

171.4

629.5

167.0

267.9

324.6

550.0

137.8

227.8

278.3

920.4

273.4

414.6

493.8

1,600.6

522.3

757.6

889.7

55.4

-43.1

-21.6

-9.6

1,315.2

-27.4-37.1

417.9

-13.3

613.7

723.6

Q1/2020

Q2/2020

Q3/2020

Q4/2020

434.1

278.1

222.8

19.3

810.6

544.7

450.3

103.4

615.3

406.4

332.3

59.8

607.0

400.5

327.3

57.9

200.0

112.4

81.3

-33.0

369.4

232.3

183.7

4.8

556.5

364.8

296.8

46.6

338.5

210.5

165.1

-2.1

571.0

375.0

305.5

49.9

318.2

196.1

152.8

-6.6

994.2

674.7

561.4

144.4

189.4

104.9

74.9

-35.4

155.5

80.9

54.4

-42.9

41.265.5347.7

217.0

170.6

17.1

Q1/2021

Q2/2021

Q3/2021

-41.3-26.3-21.4

25.6

33.9

6.6

-22.4-68.2-67.1-71.9-51.8-48.4-54.1-27.920.232.4-45.8-43.8-52.2-17.9-12.1-21.722.9104.95.4-56.9-55.3-61.9-34.6-30.0-37.7-2.163.1

-1.2-59.5-58.1-64.3-38.7-34.4-41.5-8.253.0

Q4/2021

Q1/2022

Q2/2022

Q3/2022

Q4/2022

-59.1-57.6-63.9-38.0-33.6-40.8-7.154.83.7-11.751.562.244.5126.9278.1

-14.846.256.539.4118.8264.771.783.763.7157.0328.3

7.0

Q1/2023Q2/2023Q3/2023Q4/2023

-4.649.7149.5-10.939.9133.1

57.0161.666.7

SoldattheEndof

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

9

Bitcoin(MonthlyCandlestickChart),inUSD,01/2015-03/2024

100,000

ncrementum

10,000

1,000

100

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

10

Bitcoin(WeeklyCandlestickChart),inUSD,04/2022-03/2024

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

ncrementum

04/202207/202210/202201/202304/202307/202310/202301/2024

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

11

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

CryptoFear&GreedIndex,07/2023-03/2024

CurrentValue:79.83

07/202308/202309/202310/202311/202312/202301/202402/202403/2024

CryptoFear&GreedIndex

Source:,IncrementumAG

12

03/13/2024

BitcoinDrawdownsinUSDfromAll-TimeHigh,01/2011-03/2024

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%

-80%

-90%

-100%

-851%

-83.1%

-76.9%

-93.1%

.

incrementum

ATH

20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

BitcoinDrawdownsHalvings

Source:,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

13

BitcoininVariousDevelopedMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh,

03/31/2024

0%

-1.81%

-2.31%

-2.52%

-2.49%

-3.17%

-3.42%

-3.49%

-3.56%

-4.31%

-3.36%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%

-80%

ncrementum

-90%

-100%

CADSGDGBPEURAUDUSDKRWJPYCHFNOK

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

14

0%

-10%

-20%

BitcoininVariousEmergingMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh,

03/31/2024

-3.89%

-5.86%

-2.21%

-3.01%

-4.18%

-4.34%

-3.48%

-3.51%

-4.72%

-16.23%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%

-80%

incrementum

-90%

-100%

MXNBRLVESCNYINRARSRUBTRYZARCLP

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

15

RollingBitcoinVolatility(30days),RealizedandImplied,03/2020-03/2024

200%

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

03/2020

09/202003/2021

——RealizedVolatility

09/202103/2022

—ImpliedVolatility

09/2022

03/202309/2023

Linear(RealizedVolatility)

Source:T3Index,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

16

1.0

Bitcoin(log),inUSD,01/2011-03/2024

Profitablevs.UnprofitableEntryPoints

100,000.0

incrementum

10,000.0

1,000.0

100.0

10.0

ProfitableDays180D1Y2Y4YSince2011

Profitable

97.8%

98.9%

99.5%

99.7%

99.9%

Unprofitable

2.2%

1.1%

0.5%

0.3%

0.1%

0.1

20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

—Profitable—Unprofitable

Source:,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

17

BitcoinPerformanceafterHalvings(Halving=100,log),11/2012-03/2024

10,000

1,000

100

10

incrementum

01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

Days

201220162020

Source:,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

18

1,000,000.0100,000.0 10,000.0 1,000.0100.0

10.0

1.0

0.1

Halving#1:

Start:28/11/2012,12.35

High:04/12/2013,1,151.17

Low:28/11/2012,12.35

Close:08/07/2016,662.97

Halving#2:

Start:09/07/2016,652.95

High:18/12/2017,18,690.00

Low:02/08/2016,540.00

Close:10/05/2020,8,668.45

Halving#3:

Start:11/05/2020,8,633.99

High:09/11/2021,73,157.00

Low:11/05/2020,8,633.99

Close:31/03/2024,70,841.00

2014

2018

2022

2026

2012

2016

2020

2024

Halving#3:05/11/2020

Halving#2:07/09/2016

Halving#1:11/28/2012

20132017

20212025

Bitcoin,inUSD,01/2011-03/2024

20112015

20192023

InfoBox:

•ThisgraphillustratestheevolutionoftheBitcoinprice,whichis

exponentialduetotheshortageofsupplythatoccurseveryfouryearsafterahalving.

•ThenextBitcoinhalvingwilltakeplaceinApril2024.

•ThepriceofBitcoinhasnotyet

recordedanegativeperformanceintherolling4-yearcomparison,whichhasledtoanever-increasingspiral.

2011-20142015-20182019-20222023-2026

Source:@therationalroot,,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

19

HalvingEffects

Halving

ReductionofNewSupplyperBlock

TotalReductionover

480Days(mn)

OutstandingBitcoins

(mn)

ReductioninNew

SupplyasPercentage

ofOutstanding

ReductioninNew

Supplyas%of

PreviousHalving

2012

25BTC

1.7

10.5

16.5%

2016

12.5BTC

0.9

15.8

5.5%

33.0%

2020

6.25BTC

0.4

18.4

2.4%

43.0%

2024

3.125BTC

0.2

19.7

1.1%

47.0%

Source:Glassnode,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

20

GoogleTrends:Bitcoin,01/2012-03/2024

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

incrementum

20122013201420152016

Source:Google,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

20172018201920202021202220232024

—GoogleTrends:Bitcoin

21

3.Bitcoinvs.Altcoins

“…therewasalotofhypemasqueradingasrealityinthecryptofield,Nakamoto’sinnovationisreal.Further,ithasbeenandcouldcontinuetobeacatalystforchangeinthe

fieldsoffinanceandmoney.”

SECChairGaryGensler

22

MarketCapitalizationoftheTop10Cryptocurrencies,inUSDbn,

03/31/2024

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

ncrementum

1,403.1

435.4

104.5

90.6

88.8

34.4

32.5

31.5

23.0

20.3

Bitcoin

Ethereum

Tether

BinanceCoin

Solana

Ripple

USDCoin

Dogecoin

Cardano

Avalanche

(BTC)

(ETH)

(USDT)

(BNB)

(SOL)

(XRP)

(USDC)

(DOGE)

(ADA)

(AVAX)

Source:,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

23

ncrementum

BitcoinDominance,01/2015-03/2024

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2016

2017

2015

Source:,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

2018

2019

2020

BitcoinDominance

2021

2022

2023

2024

24

VariousS&PCryptocurrencyIndices(100=03/2023),03/2023-03/2024

300

ncrementum

250

200

150

100

50

03/202305/202307/2023

—S&PBitcoinIndex

—S&PCryptocurrencyDeFiIndex

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

09/2023

11/202301/2024

—S&PCryptocurrencyBroadDigitalMarketIndex

—S&PCryptocurrencyFinancialsIndex

25

incrementum

Bitcoin/Altcoin30DayCorrelation,04/2023-03/2024

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

ncrementum

-1.0

06/2023

—BTC/BNB

08/2023

—BTC/XRP

10/2023

—BTC/ADA

12/2023

—BTC/DOGE

02/2024

04/2023

—BTC/LTC

BTC/SOL

—BTC/ETH

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

26

4.BitcoinComparisons

“Iwouldtakethegoldandsprinklealittlebitcoinontop.”

RayDalio

27

MonthlyPerformanceofVariousAssets,04/2022-03/2024

Bitcoin

Gold

Silver

GDX

S&P500

NASDAQComp.

EuroStoxx600

Nikkei225

Shanghai

Composite

MSCIWorld

DXY

Refinitiv

UST10YIndex

Refinitiv

DE10YIndex

Apr.2022

-16.28%

-2.11%

-8.20%

-8.76%

-8.80%

-13.26%

-1.20%

-3.50%

-6.31%

-8.43%

4.73%

-5.29%

-3.47%

May.2022

-17.05%

-3.13%

-5.30%

-9.32%

0.01%

-2.05%

-1.56%

1.61%

4.57%

-0.16%

-1.17%

0.69%

-1.69%

Jun.2022

-41.06%

-1.64%

-5.98%

-13.71%

-8.39%

-8.71%

-8.15%

-3.25%

6.66%

-8.77%

2.88%

-0.87%

-2.20%

Jul.2022

26.37%

-2.31%

0.36%

-4.05%

9.11%

12.35%

7.64%

5.34%

-4.28%

7.86%

1.16%

3.10%

5.98%

Aug.2022

-14.66%

-3.09%

-11.56%

-9.40%

-4.24%

-4.64%

-5.29%

1.04%

-1.57%

-4.33%

2.64%

-3.91%

-6.38%

Sep.2022

-3.86%

-2.98%

5.73%

1.34%

-9.34%

-10.50%

-6.57%

-7.67%

-5.55%

-9.46%

3.14%

-4.96%

-4.85%

Oct.2022

5.11%

-1.60%

0.74%

0.17%

7.99%

3.90%

6.28%

6.36%

-4.33%

7.11%

-0.53%

-1.96%

-0.21%

Nov.2022

-16.27%

8.29%

15.96%

20.24%

5.38%

4.37%

6.75%

1.38%

8.91%

6.80%

-5.00%

3.05%

2.00%

Dec.2022

-3.25%

3.16%

7.98%

-1.34%

-5.90%

-8.73%

-3.44%

-6.70%

-1.97%

-4.34%

-2.29%

-0.72%

-5.07%

Jan.2023

38.76%

5.67%

-1.11%

11.72%

6.18%

10.68%

6.67%

4.72%

5.39%

7.00%

-1.38%

3.27%

2.97%

Feb.2023

0.86%

-5.22%

-11.76%

-14.08%

-2.61%

-1.11%

1.74%

0.43%

0.74%

-2.53%

2.72%

-2.80%

-2.86%

Mar.2023

22.65%

7.70%

15.11%

17.59%

3.51%

6.69%

-0.71%

2.17%

-0.21%

2.83%

-2.25%

3.90%

3.28%

Apr.2023

3.37%

1.11%

4.00%

3.80%

1.46%

0.04%

1.92%

2.91%

1.54%

1.59%

-0.83%

0.70%

-0.02%

May.2023

-7.60%

-1.37%

-6.23%

-7.95%

0.25%

5.80%

-3.19%

7.04%

-3.57%

-1.25%

2.62%

-1.46%

0.62%

Jun.2023

12.06%

-2.18%

-3.09%

-2.59%

6.47%

6.59%

2.25%

7.45%

-0.08%

5.93%

-1.36%

-1.14%

-0.80%

Jul.2023

-3.89%

2.32%

8.87%

4.32%

3.11%

4.05%

2.04%

-0.05%

2.78%

3.29%

-1.03%

-0.84%

-0.44%

Aug.2023

-10.91%

-1.24%

-1.35%

-6.84%

-1.77%

-2.17%

-2.79%

-1.67%

-5.20%

-2.55%

1.73%

-0.92%

0.41%

Sep.2023

4.06%

-4.71%

-9.31%

-8.03%

-4.87%

-5.81%

-1.74%

-2.34%

-0.30%

-4.45%

2.51%

-3.45%

-2.77%

Oct.2023

27.97%

7.27%

3.34%

4.09%

-2.20%

-2.78%

-3.68%

-3.14%

-2.95%

-2.97%

0.41%

-2.25%

0.56%

Nov.2023

8.94%

2.68%

10.26%

11.82%

8.92%

10.70%

6.45%

8.52%

0.36%

9.21%

-2.97%

4.85%

3.12%

Dec.2023

12.61%

1.32%

-5.90%

-0.99%

4.42%

5.52%

3.77%

-0.07%

-1.81%

4.81%

-2.09%

4.20%

3.56%

Jan.2024

-0.11%

-1.23%

-3.55%

-9.90%

1.59%

1.02%

1.39%

8.43%

-6.27%

1.14%

1.92%

-0.32%

-0.65%

Feb.2024

44.72%

0.30%

-1.08%

-5.65%

5.17%

6.12%

1.84%

7.94%

8.13%

4.11%

0.85%

-2.06%

-1.90%

Mar.2024

15.29%

9.26%

10.17%

19.95%

3.10%

1.79%

3.65%

3.07%

0.86%

3.01%

0.37%

0.67%

1.07%

Average

3.66%

0.68%

0.34%

-0.32%

0.77%

0.83%

0.59%

1.67%

-0.19%

0.64%

0.28%

-0.36%

-0.41%

MAX

44.72%

9.26%

15.96%

20.24%

9.11%

12.35%

7.64%

8.52%

8.91%

9.21%

4.73%

4.85%

5.98%

MIN

-41.06%

-5.22%

-11.76%

-14.08%

-9.34%

-13.26%

-8.15%

-7.67%

-6.31%

-9.46%

-5.00%

-5.29%

-6.38%

CurrentPrice70,841.002,232.3824.9731.625,254.3516,379.46512.6740,369.443,041.173,437.76104.55590.65556.93

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

28

MarketCapitalizationofBitcoinvs.VariousAssetsandCentralBank

BalanceSheets,inUSDbn,03/31/2024

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

ncrementum

43,218

26,933

15,258

7,5507,350

1,403

2,684

S&P500

MarketCap

USTs

Outstanding

Gold

Stock

Fed

TotalAssets

ECB

TotalAssets

Crypto

(ex.Bitcoin)

MarketCap

Bitcoin

MarketCap

Source:,WorldGoldCouncil,USTreasury,Fed,ECB,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

29

Bitcoin/GoldRatio(Top),andBitcoin/GoldCorrelation(Bottom),

04/2020-03/2024

40

30

20

10

0

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

—Bitcoin/GoldRatio

04/2020

10/2020

04/2021

10/2021

04/2022

—180Day

10/2022

04/2023

10/2023

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

30

Weekly6MonthRollingCorrelationofa60/40PortfolioandaPortfolioof(1/3)

Gold,(1/3)Silver,and(1/3)Bitcoin,03/2011-03/2024

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

03/2011

03/2013

03/2015

03/2017

—Correlation

03/2019

03/2021

03/2023

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

31

DistributionofWeeklyLogarithmicReturnsofGold,Silver,andBitcoin,

08/2010-03/2024

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

ncrementum

Gold

Silver

Bitcoin

Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

32

ncrementum

MarketCapitalizationofBitcoinandGold(lhs),inUSDtrn,and

Bitcoin/GoldMarketCapRatio(rhs),01/2013-03/2024

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2014

2013

2016

2017

2015

Bitcoin

2018201920202021202220232024

Gold一Bitcoin/GoldMarketCapRatio

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Source:,WorldGoldCouncil,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

33

GoldStock*(lhs),inTonnes,andBitcoinStock(rhs),inCoins,

01/2010-01/2030

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

incrementum

25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0

20102012201420162018202020222024202620282030

□Gold.Bitcoin

Source:,WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG

*GoldProduction(2024-2030)=averagegrowthrate(2004-2023)

incrementum

34

GoldStock*(lhs),inTonnes,andBitcoinStock(rhs),inCoins,

1900-2030e

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

ncrementum

25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0

190019101920193019401950

Gold

Source:,USGS,WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG

ncrementum

196019701980

19902000201020202030

Bitcoin

*GoldProduction(2024-2030)=averagegrowthrate(2004-2023)

35

Stock-to-FlowRatioforGold*andBitcoin,1900-2030e

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

ncrementum

19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000201020202030

Bitcoin—Gold

Source:,USGS,WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG*GoldProduction(2024-2030)=averagegrowthrate(2004-2023)

incrementum

36

5.SpotBitcoinETFs

“It'snodifferentthanwhatgoldrepresentedoverthousands

ofyears.Itisanassetclassthatprotectsyou.”

LarryFink

37

SpotBitcoinETFOverview,03/31/2024

Issuer

Ticker

MarketShare

Holdings(₿)

Holdings(USDmn)

Fee

Grayscale

GBTC

40.3%

335,649

23,778

1.50%

BlackRock

IBIT

30.1%

250,383

17,737

0.25%

Fidelity

FBTC

17.3%

143,637

10,175

0.25%

21Shares

ARKB

5.3%

44,079

3,123

0.21%

Bitwise

BITB

3.7%

30,735

2,177

0.20%

Invesco

BTCO

0.8%

6,305

447

0.25%

VanEck

HODL

1.0%

8,657

613

0.25%

Valkyrie

BRRR

0.9%

7,592

538

0.25%

FranklinTempleton

EZBC

0.5%

4,118

292

0.19%

WisdomTree

BTCW

0.1%

1,147

81

0.30%

Source:hildobby,IncrementumAG

38

DailySpotBitcoinETFFlows,inBitcoin,01/10/2024-03/31/2024

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000

-20,000

1/10/2024

GBTC

2/7/2024

1/24/2024

IBITFBTC

3/6/2024

HODLBRRR

3/20/2024

EZBCBTCW

2/21/2024

ARKB

BITBBTCO

Source:hildobby,IncrementumAG

39

SpotBitcoinETFHoldings,inBitcoin,01/10/2024-03/3