企业信贷风险管理的分析

企业信贷风险管理的分析CREDITCULTURE

信贷文化RiskaversegivenBank’shighgearingandthinmargin倾向低风险，由于银行高负债和低利息差Propergoalsandmeasureswithcontrols适当的目标和措施及控制TheLinetakesprimary(orjoint)responsibilityofthecreditdecisions

前线部门对贷款决定负主要（或共同）责任BurdenofproofontheLine

证明应贷款责任在于前线部门Neverfeelembarrassedtoask“dumb”questions不用担心问“愚笨”的问题2CREDITRISKMANAGEMENT

信贷风险管理Prerequisite:先决条件Seniormanagement’ssupport(positiveintervention?)高层管理的支持（积极干预？）People(technicalcapability,integrityandinter-personalskills)人员（技术能力、人格和人际交往能力）OrganizationandSystem组织及系统

Attribute:特征Independent独立性Nobottom-lineresponsibility没有盈利责任Professional专业性Firmandfair坚定和公正3STRUCTUREANDAPPROVALPROCESS结构和认证程序BoardofDirectors董事会行政总裁（总部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政总裁（亚太区）AMHGM总经理（香港及中国大陆）Line前线部门信贷总经理GMCreditCCO首席信贷官HDCredit信贷部门主管Concurrence认同Approval审批Approval审批Approval审批CountryRisk/BankRisk国家风险/银行风险MarketRisk/CreditRisk市场风险/信用风险MarketRisk/CreditRisk市场风险/信用风险Credit信用4ALTERNATIVES选择CentralizedvsDecentralized集权/分权IndividualvsCommittee(compositionanddecisionmakingprocess)个人/委员会（债务组成及决策过程）

Factorstoconsider:需要考虑的因素

Individual/CollectiveDecision/Responsibility个人/集体决策/责任Seniormanagement’strust高层管理的信任Qualityofstaff(atcentreandintheline)员工的素质（管理人员和一线职员）Specializationofstaff员工专业化Effectivenessofinternalcontrolsystem内部控制系统的功效Qualityofservice(e.g.turnaroundtime)服务的质量（例如：报废项目时间）Others(fraudpreventionetc.)其他（防范欺诈等）5StructureandAccountCycle

结构及客户信贷周期Policy/政策Approval审批RiskMonitoring风险监督Recovery追偿HeadofCRM信贷风险管理部Loans贷款Unhealthyloans不良贷款Review回顾Review回顾6CreditPolicy,GuidelinesandProceduresManual

信贷政策，指南及程序手册Keybusinessobjectives主要业务目标StructureandResponsibility结构及职责EconomicOutlook经济预期SectoralAnalysis行业分析BusinessStrategyandFocus业务战略和重点RiskAssessmentandCreditAppetite风险评估和信贷偏好LendingGuidelines贷款指南CreditProducts,ProceduresandAdvice信贷产品、程序和建议7CREDITPOLICY信贷政策Marketpositioningandriskappetite市场定位和风险偏好

Return回报

PrivateBank CommercialBank SubprimeLender

私人银行商业银行次级贷款人-Largecorporate大型企业-Middlemarket中端市场-Smallbusiness小型企业-Consumer消费者

Risk风险8MARKETSEGMENTATION–CREDITTOOLS市场细分—信贷工具CorporateBanking-Largecorporate-Judgemental(plusRating,KMV,MRA)公司金融-大型公司-主观判断（加评分，KMV,MRA)

CommercialBanking–Mediumsizedcorporate–Judgemental公司金融-中型企业-主观判断

BusinessBanking–Smallbusiness–Scoring商务理财-小型企业-评分

PersonalFinancialServices–Consumer–Scoring个人金融服务-消费者-评分

9Charge-OffRates,AllBanks,SA(USA)冲销率所有银行美国0.00.51.01.52.02.53.091Q191Q392Q192Q393Q193Q394Q194Q395Q195Q396Q196Q397Q197Q398Q198Q399Q199Q300Q100Q301Q101Q3Commercial*商业房地产贷款C&ILoans工商贷款TotalLoans&Leases贷款及租赁总额%Residential*住房贷款10LoanQualityinHK香港地区贷款质量-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NPL%不良贷款比例Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡冲销比例MortgageDelinquencyRate住房贷款不良率RealGDP(yearonyear%change)年实际GDP变化率11SmallBusiness小型企业Morevulnerabletoeconomicdownturn易受经济下滑的影响Informationproblematic(lowfinancialtransparencyandreliability)信息问题（财务信息透明度及可信度不高）Highoperatingrisks(relativelyweakinmanagementskills)高运营风险（较弱的管理能力）CharacteristicsoftheScorecard记分卡的特征Company’sfinancials公司财务状况Company’scredithistoryandbehavior公司信用历史和表现Company’sattributes(age,sector,sizeetc)公司性质（成立时间的长短、所属行业、规模等）Owner’sscores公司所有者的评分12英国小型公司主要业务的设立与终止设立千/每季度终止13Consumer消费贷款CriteriaBasedLending根据准则所进行的信贷Morecommonlyforsecuredproducts,e.g.mortgage,carloans,HPandloanssecuredbyliquidassets多用于担保产品，例如：住房贷款、汽车贷款、租赁及用流动资产担保的贷款Securitycoverage抵押品/贷款比例Incomecoverage收入/还款比例

14CreditCardQuality信用卡质量3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Dec-98Mar-99Jun-99Sep-99Dec-99Mar-00Jun-00Sep-00Dec-00Mar-01Jun-01Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000No.ofBankruptcyPetitions破产申请Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡冲销率Unemploymentrate失业率BankruptcyPetitions(RHS)破产申请（RHS)15Scoring评分Rankordering分级ApplicationandBehavioralScores申请信贷和行为评分GenericandCustomizedScores通用评分和专用评分Creditcard,personalloans,etc信用卡，个人贷款等16PRICINGSTRATEGY

定价战略1.Interestmargin:hurdlerates,e.g.bonds.利率边际：障碍率，例如：债券2.RORA:returnontheoverallrelationship总体关系的回报3.EP:costofcapital经济利润：资本成本

Factorstoconsider:考虑因素PD(Borrower’sgrade)违约机率LGD损失比率Term年期Costofcapital资本成本Competition竞争Businesspotential发展潜力17DEBTRECOVERY(1)

贷款收回（1）Objective

目标RiskvsRelationship

风险或关系Strategy

战略RehabilitationORExit

贷款康复或退出18DEBTRECOVERY(2)

贷款收回(2)Workout-Factorsforsuccess

债务重组-成功的因素-

legalsystem(SchemeofArrangement,IndividualVoluntaryArrangement,BankruptcyLaw)-法律体系(债务安排计划、个人自愿安排、破产法）-

professionalsupport(lawyer,accountant,financialadvisor,assetsearch