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2017年武汉大学考博英语真题试卷一、PartIReadingComprehension1.
Directions:Inthispartofthetest,therewillbe5passagesforyoutoread.Eachpassageisfollowedby4questionsorunfinishedstatements,andeachquestionorunfinishedstatementisfollowedbyfourchoicesmarkedA,B,CandD.YouaretodecideonthebestchoicebyblackeningthecorrespondingletterontheANSWERSHEET.
PassageOneMrGordonisrightthatthesecondindustrialrevolutioninvolvednever-to-be-repeatedchanges.But
thatdoesnotmeanthatdriverlesscarscountfornothing.MessrsErixonandWeigelarealsorightto
worryabouttheWest’sdismalrecentrecordinproducingnewcompanies.Butmanyoldfirmsarenot
runbybureaucratsandhavereinventedthemselvesmanytimesover:
GeneralElectricmustbeonatleast
itsninthlife.Andtheimpactofgiantnewfirmsbominthepast20yearssuchasUber,Googleand
Facebookshouldnotbeunderestimated:theyhavealltheSchumpeteriancharacteristicstheauthors
admire.
Onthepessimists*sidethestrongestargumentreliesnotoncloselywatchingcorporateandinvestor
behaviorbutratheronmacro-levelstatisticsonproductivity.Thefiguresfromrecentyearsaretruly
dismal.KarimFoda,oftheBrookingsInstitution,calculatesthatlaborproductivityintherichworldis
growingatitsslowestratesince1950.Totalfactorproductivity(whichtriestomeasureinnovation)has
grownatjust0.1%inadvancedeconomiessince2004,wellbelowitshistoricalaverage.
Optimistshavetworetorts.Thefirstisthattheremustbesomethingwrongwiththefigures.One
possibilityisthattheyfailtocountthehugeconsumersurplusgivenawayfreeofchargeontheInternet.
Butthisisunconvincing.TheofficialfiguresmaywellbeunderstatingtheimpactoftheInternet
revolution,justastheydownplayedtheimpactofelectricityandcarsinthepast,buttheyarenot
understatingitenoughtoexplaintherecentdeclineinproductivitygrowth.
Another,secondlineofargumentthattheproductivityrevolutionhasonlyjustbegunismore
persuasive.OverthepastdecademanyITcompaniesmayhavefocusedonthingsthatweremore“fun
thanfundamental”inPaulKrugman’sphrase.ButSiliconValley’sbestcompaniesarecertainlyfocusing
onthingsthatchangethematerialworld.
UberandAirbnbarebringingdramaticimprovementstotwolargeindustriesthathavebeenmoreor
lessstuckfordecades.MorganStanleyestimatesthatdriverlesscarscouldresultin$507billionayear
ofproductivitygainsinAmerica,mainlyfrompeoplebeingabletostareattheirlaptopsinsteadofatthe
road.
(1).Whathasledtothepessimisticopinionconcerningtheworld’seconomy?
A.Itisbasedonmacro-levelstatisticsonproductivity.
√
B.Itisbasedoncloseobservationoncorporateandinvestorbehavior.
C.Itisduetothefactthatmanyoldfirmsarenotrunbybureaucrats.
D.Itisduetothefactthatnotenoughnewfirmshavebeencreated.(2).Thefirstargumentontheoptimists’sideisunconvincingbecausetheofficialfigures,______.
A.arebothwrongandunconvincing
B.downplaytheInternetrevolution
C.failtoincludetheconsumersurplus
D.can’texplainthedeclineinproductivitygrowth
√(3).WhatistrueabouttheITcompaniesinSiliconValley?
A.Theyhaveonlyfocusedonthefunpartoflife.
B.Theyhavemadeadifferenceintherealworl正确答案:D
C.Theyhavemorepersuasiveproductivity.
D.Theyhaveonlyjustbeguntodevelop.(4).HowcandriverlesscarsbenefitAmericanindustries?
A.DriverlesscarshaverevivedtwolargeAmericanindustries.
B.Thesaleofdriverlesscarscanreachhundredsofbilliondollars.
C.Thankstothempeoplefreefromdrivingcandomorecreativework.
√
D.DriverlesscarshavestimulatedthedevelopmentofUberandAirbnb.
2.Directions:Inthispartofthetest,therewillbe5passagesforyoutoread.Eachpassageisfollowedby4questionsorunfinishedstatements,andeachquestionorunfinishedstatementisfollowedbyfourchoicesmarkedA,B,CandD.YouaretodecideonthebestchoicebyblackeningthecorrespondingletterontheANSWERSHEET.
PassageTwoWinstonChurchillwasoneofthecentralstatesmenofthe20thcenturyand,almost50yearsafter
hisdeath,remainsasubjectofenduringfascination.Partofthecurrentinterestinthisvenerablefigure
canbeattributedtotwosuperbbiographieswritteninthe1980sbyhistorianWilliamManchester:The
LastLion:VisionsofGloryandTheLastLion:Alone.Thesetwobooksexaminedthefirsttwo-thirdsof
Churchill’slife.
Unfortunately,aftercompletingthesecondvolume,Manchester’shealthdeclinedandtherestof
theprojectstalled.Sogreatwaspublicinterestinthelong-delayedfinalvolumethatitwasthesubject
ofafrontpagestoryinTheNewYorkTimes.
Eventually,in2003,ManchesteraskedhisfriendPaulReidtocompletethetrilogy.Now,nearlya
decadelater,ReidhaspublishedTheLastLion,thefinalpieceofthismonumentalundertaking.Reid
startswhenChurchillwasappointedprimeministerinMay1940andfollowshimthroughhisdeathin
1965.WhilemostofthisvolumeisappropriatelydevotedtoWorldWarII,italsoincludesthevast
expansionoftheBritishwelfarestatefollowingthewar,thestartoftheColdWarandtheenormous
dangersitcarried,andthelossoftheBritishEmpire.
Reidhaswrittenathoroughandcompleteanalysisoftheseyears,anditisaworthyfinaletothe
firsttwovolumes.Exhaustivelyresearchedandcarefullywritten,itdrawsonafullrangeofprimary
andsecondarymaterials.Thisbookwillbeessentialreadingforthosewhoenjoyedthefirsttwovolumes
andthosewithadeepinterestinunderstandingthisseminalfigureandhisplaceinhistory.
ReiddoesawonderfuljobofcapturingChurchillinallhiscomplexity.HegivesChurchillgreat
praiseforhispersonalcourageandinspirationalleadershipduringthedarkdayswhenBritainstood
alone,butheisequallyclearaboutChurchill’spoorstrategicjudgments,suchastheeffortstodefend
GreeceandCrete,theAlliedassaultonAnzio,andthedecisiontosendthebattleshipPrinceofWales
andbattlecruiserRepulsetotheSouthChinaSeawithoutadequateaircoverwheretheywerepromptly
sunkbytheJapanese.
HehighlightsChurchill’snaiveteindealingwithSovietPremierStalinintheearlyyearsofthewar,
butpraiseshisprescienceinanticipatingStalin’slandgrabinEasternEuropeattheendoftheconflict.
Reidalsogiveswelcomeattentiontoaspectsofthewar—suchasChurchilFsfearthattheUnitedStates
mightdecidetoputitsprimaryemphasisondefeatingJapanregardlessofthe4<Germanyfirst”
understandinghesharedwithRooseveltthathavereceivedlittleattentioninotherbooks.
(1).WhatcanbeknownaboutthetwobiographiesofChurchill?
A.Theywerewritteninaninterestingstyle.
B.TheywerewrittenpriortoChurchilFsdeath.
C.Theyaremainlywrittenfromahistoricalpointofview.
D.Theyhavehelpedintriguethereadersoveralongperio正确答案:D(2).WhydidthebiographyoncebecomeafrontpagestoryintheNewYorkTimes?
A.Peoplewerelookingforwardtothepublicationofthefinalvolum正确答案:E
B.Readerswereangrywiththeauthorforthedelayofthefinalvolume.
C.Thepublicationofthefinalvolumewasthenaheatedlydiscussedissue.
D.Readerswantedtoknowwhowouldbethenewauthorofthefinalvolume.(3).Whydoesthethirdvolumeprovetobeworthy?
A.Itiswidelyreadandwelcomedbyreaders.
B.ItinvolvesenoughdetailsinChurchill’slife.
C.Itisbasedonthoroughandreliableresearch.
√
D.ItoffersauniqueunderstandingofChurchill.(4).WhatcanweknowaboutChurchillthroughthethirdvolume?
A.Heisamanwithcomplexity.
√
B.HepulledBritainthroughWWII.
C.Hemademanystrategicmistakes.
D.Heiscourageousandinspirational.3.Directions:Inthispartofthetest,therewillbe5passagesforyoutoread.Eachpassageisfollowedby4questionsorunfinishedstatements,andeachquestionorunfinishedstatementisfollowedbyfourchoicesmarkedA,B,CandD.YouaretodecideonthebestchoicebyblackeningthecorrespondingletterontheANSWERSHEET.
PassageThree
AsteroidsandcometsthatrepeatedlysmashedintotheearlyEarthcoveredtheplanet’ssurfacewith
moltenrockduringitsearliestdays,butstillmayhaveleftoasesofwaterthatcouldhavesupportedthe
evolutionoflife,scientistssay.Thenewstudyrevealsthatduringtheplanet’sinfancy,thesurfaceof
theEarthwasahellishenvironment,butperhapsnotashellishasoftenthought,scientistsadded.
Earthformedabout4.5billionyearsago.Thefirst500millionyearsofitslifeareknownasthe
HadeanEon.Althoughthistimeamountstomorethan10percentofEarth’shistory,littleisknown
aboutit,sincefewrocksareknownthatareolderthan3.8billionyearsold.
FormuchoftheHadean,Earthanditssisterworldsintheinnersolarsystemwerepummeledwith
anextraordinarynumberofcosmicimpacts.“Itwasthoughtthatbecauseoftheseasteroidsandcomets
flyingaroundcollidingwithEarth,conditionsonearlyEarthmayhavebeenhellish,”saidleadstudy
authorSimoneMarchi,aplanetaryscientistattheSouthwestResearchInstituteinBoulder,Colorado.
Thisimaginedhellishnessgavetheeonitsname—HadeancomesfromHades,thelordofthe
underworldinGreekmythology.
However,inthepastdozenyearsorso,aradicallydifferentpictureoftheHadeanbeganto
emerge.Analysisofmineralstrappedwithinmicroscopiczirconcrystalsdatingfromthiseon“suggested
thattherewasliquidwateronthesurfaceoftheEarthbackthen,clashingwiththepreviouspicturethat
theHadeanwashellish,”Marchisaid.ThiscouldexplainwhytheevidenceoftheearliestlifeonEarth
appearsduringtheHadean—maybetheplanetwaslessinhospitableduringthateonthanpreviously
thought.
TheexacttimingandmagnitudeoftheimpactsthatsmashedEarthduringtheHadeanareunknown.
Togetanideaoftheeffectsofthisbombardment,Machiandhiscolleagueslookedatthemoon,whose
heavilycrateredsurfacehelpedmodelthebatteringthatitscloseneighborEarthmusthaveexperienced
backthen.
“Wealsolookedathighlysiderophileelements(elementsthatbindtightlytoiron),suchasgold,
deliveredtoEarthasaresultoftheseearlycollisions,andtheamountsoftheseelementstellsusthetotal
massaccretedbyEarthastheresultsofthesecollisions,”Marchisaid.Priorresearchsuggeststhese
impactsprobablycontributedlessthan0.5percentoftheEarth’spresent-daymass.Theresearchersdiscoveredthat“thesurfaceoftheEarthduringtheHadeanwasheavilyaffectedby
verylargecollisions,byimpactorslargerthan100kilometersorso—really,reallybigimpactors,”
Marchisaid.“WhenEarthhasacollisionwithanobjectthatbig,thatmeltsalargevolumeofthe
Earth’scrustandmantle,coveringalargefractionofthesurface,”Marchiadded.Thesefindings
suggestthatEarth’ssurfacewasburiedoverandoveragainbylargevolumesofmoltenrock—enough
tocoverthesurfaceoftheEarthseveraltimes.Thishelpsexplainwhysofewrockssurvivefromthe
Hadean,theresearcherssaid.
(1).WhyisitlittleknownabouttheEarth’sfirst500millionyears?
A.Becauseitisanimaginedperiodoftime.
B.Becausethisperiodisoflittlesignificance.
C.Becauseitisimpossibletoknowaboutthisperiod.
D.Becausenorocksareavailableasresearchevidenc正确答案:E(2).WhyistheearlyEarthimaginedtobehellish?
A.Becauseitwasoftensmashedbyasteroidsandcomets.
√
B.BecausebackthenHades,thelordofHell,resigned.
C.BecauseitwassoaccordingtoGreekmythology.
D.Becausebackthentherewasnolife.(3).WhywastheearlyEarthinfactlessinhospitablethanoftenthought?
A.BecausemineralsoftheHadeanhavebeenfoundsuggestingtheexistenceoflife.
B.Becausetheclashingbroughtbyasteroidsandcometswasnotcompletelydamaging.
C.BecauseduringtheHadeantherealreadyexistedtheevidenceoflife.
D.BecausetherehadalreadybeenliquidwaterontheEarthbackthen.
√(4).HowcanthemoonhelpwiththeunderstandingoftheimpactsthatsmashedtheEarth?
A.ThemoononcesmashedintotheEarthtoo.
B.ThemoonwasbatteredearlierthantheEarth.
C.Themoon,asacloseneighbor,iseasiertoobserve.
D.Themoon’ssurfaceisheavilycrateredastheEarth’s.
√4.Directions:Inthispartofthetest,therewillbe5passagesforyoutoread.Eachpassageisfollowedby4questionsorunfinishedstatements,andeachquestionorunfinishedstatementisfollowedbyfourchoicesmarkedA,B,CandD.YouaretodecideonthebestchoicebyblackeningthecorrespondingletterontheANSWERSHEET.
PassageFour
Frombeachballs,pooltoys,andjumphouses,inflatabletechnologytakesabigstepforwardfor
itsnextfrontier:spacestation.AnewkindoftechwillbeaboardSpaceX’seighthsupplymissionto
theInternationalSpaceStation(ISS).Acompressedlivingmodulewillbedeliveredandattachedtothe
stationwhere,inthevoidofspace,itwillexpandintoanewhabitatforastronauts.
DesignedbyBigelowAerospace,theinflatablespacehabitatisoneareaNASAisexploringfor
potentialdeepspacehabitatsandotheradvancedspacemissions.
“The‘BigelowExpandableActivityModule,ortheBEAM,isanexpandablehabitatthatwillbe
usedtoinvestigatetechnologyandunderstandthepotentialbenefitsofsuchhabitatsforhumanmissions
todeepspace,”NASAAdministratorCharlesBoldenwroteinablogpost.Thehabitatscouldbeaway
to“dramaticallyincrease”thespaceavailableforastronautswhilealsoofferingaddedprotectionfrom
thedangersofspace,likeradiationandspacedebris,theNASApressreleasesays.
Buthowisaninflatablespacestationsupposedtobeaviablemeansofhousingforspacetravelers?
BEAMsarefarmorethanballoon-likeroomswhereastronautscantakeasylum.Technically,the
modulesdon’tinflate—theyexpand,accordingtothecompany.Andbeyondjustair,thehabitatsare
reinforcedwithaninternalmetalstructure.Theoutsideiscomposedofmultiplelayersofmaterial
includingthingslikerubberandkevlartoprotectformanyspeedingdebris.
InsideSpaceX’sDragonspacecraftonthewaytotheISS,theBEAMwillbeapproximately8feet
indiameter.Itwillexpandoncedeployedinspacetooffer565cubicfeetofspaceforastronauts.“It’ll
bethefirsttimehumanbeingswillactuallystepinsidethisexpandablehabitatinspace,”former
astronautGeorgeZamka,whohasworkedforBigelowAerospace,toldUSAToday.“Therewon’tbe
thissenseofitbeinglikeaballoon.”
Butastronautswon’tbegettinginsidethemoduleforsometimeyet.TheBEAMwillbeattached
totheTranquilityNodeanddeployed.Insidethemoduleareaseriesoftoolsthatwillhelpthecrewof
theISSmonitordifferentaspectsoftheexpandableareatoseehowitactsinspace.Thecrewwillwatch
heat,radiation,orbitaldebris,andprovideinformationabouttheviabilityofusingsimilarmodulesin
thefuture.
Thetestingisscheduledtogoonforatwo-yeartimeperiod,afterwhichthemodulewillbe
releasedandbumupintheatmosphere.NASA’spartnershipwithBigelowfitsMr.Bolden’sdesireto
helpgrowarobustprivatesectorindustrytocommercializeaspectsofspace—aprocessheseesasvital
ifhumanswanttoreachfarthercosmicdestinations.“TheworldoflowEarthorbitbelongsto
industry,”BoldensaidatapressconferenceinJanuary2015.
(1).WhatisspecialaboutthenewlivingmoduleonSpaceX’seighthmissiontoISS?
A.Itisexpandabl正确答案:E
B.Itlookslikeatoy.
C.Itisgoingtodeepspace.
D.ItwillnotreturntoEarth.(2).Whatisthepurposeofdesigningtheinflatablespacehabitat?
A.Itistofindoutitspotentialcapacity.
B.Itistogiveatryonanewtechnology.
C.Itistosavetimeandmoneyinproduction.
D.Itistoseeifitcanbeappliedindeepspac正确答案:E(3).WhatdoestheunderlinedsentenceinParagraph5mean?
A.Thehabitatwillnotbeaballoon-likeroom.
B.Thehabitatwillnotfeellikeaballoon.
√
C.Thehabitatwillbelikeasenselessballoon.
D.Thehabitatwillbeadifferentkindofballoon.(4).WhydoesNASAintendtocommercializeaspectsofspace?
A.ItcansaveNASAtimeandenergy.
B.Itisnecessaryforarobustindustry.
C.Itiscrucialforfurtherspaceexplorations.
√
D.ItmeetsbothNASA’sandBigelow’sneeds.5.Directions:Inthispartofthetest,therewillbe5passagesforyoutoread.Eachpassageisfollowedby4questionsorunfinishedstatements,andeachquestionorunfinishedstatementisfollowedbyfourchoicesmarkedA,B,CandD.YouaretodecideonthebestchoicebyblackeningthecorrespondingletterontheANSWERSHEET.
PassageFive
Ofallthepeopleonmyholidayshoppinglist,therewasonelittleboyforwhombuyingagifthad
becomeincreasinglydifficult.He’sawonderfulchild,adorableandloving,andhe’snotfussyor
irritableorspoiled.Thoughhelivesacrossthecountryfromme,Ireceiveregularupdatesandphotos,
andhelikesallthethingsthattheboyshisagewanttoplaywith.Shoppingforhimshouldbeeasy,but
Ifindithardtosummonupanyenthusiasm,becauseinalltheyearsI’vegivenhimpresents,henever
oncesentmeathank-younote.
“Sendingthank-younotesisbecomingalostart,”mournsMaryMitchell,asyndicatedcolumnist
knownas“Ms.Demeanorvandauthorofsixetiquettebooks.Inherview,eachgeneration,compared
withtheonebefore,islosingasenseofconsiderationforotherpeople.“Withoutrespect,nshesays,
“youhaveconflict.”
Ms.Demeanorwouldbeproudofme:Ihavefiguredoutawaytoensurethatmychildrenalways
sendthank-younotes.Andsuchagestureisimportant,saysMs.Demeanor,because“agrateful
attitudeisatremendouslifeskill,anefficientandinexpensivewaytosetourselvesapartinthework
forceandinouradultlives.Teachyourchildrenthatthehabitofmannerscomesfrominside—it’san
attitudebasedonrespectingotherpeople.”
Afewyearsago,asmychildrendescendedlikepiranhasontheirpresentsundertheChristmas
tree,theonlyattitudeIcouldseewasgreed.Wherewastheappreciationoftimeandeffort?
Athank-younoteshouldcontainthreethings:anacknowledgementofthegift(Lovethetiewith
thepictureofahorseonit.);arecognitionofthetimeandeffortspenttoselectit(Youmusthave
shoppedalloverthestatetofindsuchauniqueitem!);apredictionofhowyouwilluseyourgiftorthe
wayithasenhancedyourlife(I’llbesuretowearittothenextMr.Edconvention!).
So,fiveyearsago,inoneofmyrareflashesofparentalinsight,Idecidedthatthemost
appropriatetimetoteachthisbasiccourtesyiswhilethetinselishot.Tothehorrorofmychildren,I
announcedthathencefortheverygiftreceivedwillbeanoccasionforathank-younotewritten
immediately,onthespot.IhaveexplainedtomykidshowIhavereactedtonothearingfromthelittle
boy—howitmademefeelunappreciatedandunmotivatedtorepeattheprocessnextyear.
Ihavereluctantlygivenmykidsthegreenlighttosende-thank-younotes;thoughhand-lettered
ones(atleasttome)stillseemfriendlier.Butprettymuchanythank-youmakesthegiftgiverfeel
special—justas,wehope,therecipientfeels.It’sagesturethatperfectlycapturesthespiritofthe
holidays.
(1).Theauthorfeltunmotivatedwhenbuyingagiftforthelittleboybecausehe______.
A.purposelyintendednottoshowgratitudeforherkindnessandconsideration
B.hadneverexpressedappreciationofthegiftshereceivedinpreviousyears
√
C.hadnoideahowthoughtfulshewasinchoosingagiftforhim
D.didn’tlikeanyofthegiftshehadgivenhim(2).AccordingtoMs.Demeanor,showingappreciationhasthebenefitof______.
A.formingthehabitofgoodmanners
B.regainingthelostartofexpressingthanks
C.motivatingthegiftgivertobuymoregifts
D.distinguishingoneselffromothersinworkandlife
√(3).Inathank-younote,“ThebookwillbemygoodcompanionwhenIamalone.”servesas
A.arecognitionofthetimeandeffortspenttoselectit
B.anannouncementofhowithasenhancedyourlife
C.apredictionofhowyouwilluseyourgift
√
D.anacknowledgementofthegift(4).Whatdoestheauthormeanby“whilethetinselishot”(Line2,Para.6)?
A.Themomentherkidsreceiveagift.
√
B.Themomentshestartschoosinggiftsforeachkid.
C.Whentheartofsendingthankyounotesisn’tlostyet.
D.Whenherkidsstillrememberwhoboughtthegiftsforthem.二、PartIIEnglish-ChineseTranslation6.Directions:Readthefollowingpassage,andthentranslatetheunderlinedpartsnumberedfrom【A1】to【A4】,fromEnglishintoChinese.PleasewriteyouranswerontheANSWERSHEET.Economicsisnodifferent.Supply,demand,elasticity,comparativeadvantage,consumersurplus,deadweightloss一thesetermsarepartoftheeconomist’slanguage.Inthecomingchapters,youwillencountermanynewtermsandsomefamiliarwordsthateconomistsuseinspecializedways.【A1】
Atfirst,thisnewlanguagemayseemneedlesslyarcane.But,asyouwillsee,itsvalueliesinitsabilitytoprovideyouanewandusefulwayofthinkingabouttheworldinwhichyoulive.Economiststrytoaddresstheirsubjectwithascientist’sobjectivity.Theyapproachthestudyoftheeconomyinmuchthesamewayasaphysicistapproachesthestudyofmatterandabiologistapproachesthestudyoflife:【A2】
Theydevisetheories,collectdata,andthenanalyzethesedatainanattempttoverifyorrefhtetheirtheories.Tobeginners,itcanseemoddtoclaimthateconomicsisascience.Afterall,economistsdonotworkwithtesttubesortelescopes.【A3】Theessenceofscience,however,isthescientificmethods—thedispassionatedevelopmentandtestingoftheoriesabouthowtheworldworks.Thismethodofinquiryisasapplicabletostudyinganation’seconomyasitistostudyingtheearth’sgravityoraspecies,evolution.【A4】AsAlbertEinsteinonceputit,“Thewholeofscienceisnothingmorethantherefinementofeverydaythinking.”(225words)
(1).【A1】__________________________________________________________________________________________
正确答案:(一开始,这种新的语言似乎毫无必要地晦涩难懂。但是,正如你会看到的一样,它的价值在于它能够为你提供一种全新的、有用的方式来思考你所生活的世界。)(2).【A2】__________________________________________________________________________________________
正确答案:(他们设计理论,收集数据,然后分析这些数据,试图验证或反驳他们的理论。)(3).【A3】__________________________________________________________________________________________
正确答案:(然而,科学的本质是科学的方法——即冷静客观地创立并检测关于世界如何运转的科学理论。)(4).【A4】__________________________________________________________________________________________
正确答案:(正如爱因斯坦曾经提出的,“整个科学只不过是对日常思维的提炼。”)三、PartIIIChinese-EnglishTranslation7.Directions:TranslatethefollowingparagraphfromChineseintoEnglish.PleasewriteyouranswerontheANSWERSHEET.为了寻找实验室试验的替代品,经济学家十分关注历史所提供的自然实验。例如,当中东战争中断了原油运输时,全世界石油价格飞涨。对石油和石油产品的消费者来说,这个事件降低了他们的生活水平。对经济决策者来说,它提出了选择最优反应的难题。但对经济科学家来说,它提供了研究关键自然资源对世界经济影响的机会,而且,在战争引起的石油价格上涨结束后,这种机会还会持续很长时间。因此,在本书中我们要考虑许多历史事件。这些事件之所以具有研究价值,既是因为它们能使我们了解过去的经济,更重要的则是因为它们使我们可以说明并评价现在的经济理论。
__________________________________________________________________________________________
正确答案:(Inordertofindasubstituteforlaboratoryexperiments,economistspaycloseattentiontothenaturalexperimentsprovidedbyhistory.WhenawarintheMiddleEastinterruptedtheflowofcrudeoil,forinstance,oilpricessoaredupthroughouttheworld.Forconsumersinoilandoilproducts,suchaneventhasreducedtheirlivingstandards.Foreconomicpolicymakers,itputsforwardtheproblemofchoosingthebestresponse.Butforeconomicscientists,itprovidesanopportunitytostudytheimpactofkeynaturalresourcesontheworldeconomy,andthisopportunitywillpersistforlongaf
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