银行业2025年市场前景及投资研究报告：业绩回正分红强化

证券研究报告银行行业

推荐（维持）业绩回正，分红强化——银行业2025年半年报总结报告日期：2025年9月09日投资要点

KEYPOINTS••中期分红扩面：多家银行持续实施中期分红，部分银行分红比例提升。国有大行近年来分红比例均保持在30%左右，中期分红比例基本持平。招商银行、宁波银行、常熟银行、杭州银行等拟首次实施中期分红。部分银行分红比例较去年同期有所提升，例如中信银行、上海银行、民生银行等。业绩回升，营收、利润增速转正。2025年上半年上市银行营收同比+1.0%，归母净利润同比+0.8%，分别较一季度回升2.8pct和2.0pct，营收、利润同比增速均环比转正。主要原因在于：①二季度债券市场表现回暖，投资相关收入同比增速大幅度回升。同时，银行加大了AC、OCI账户浮盈兑现力度。②去年同期的低基数影响下，二季度规模增长驱动贡献回升，净利息收入同比增速提升0.4pct至1.3%。分银行类型来看，国有行营收、利润同比增速均环比一季度改善，主要是得益于投资相关收入的大幅回升；股份行营收降幅收窄，利润同比增速环比转正至0.3%；城农商行营收同比增速均实现边际上升，利润同比增速继续领跑。•••规模方面，信贷投放以对公政信、制造业为主，存款增长环比改善。2025年二季度末，上市银行总资产同比+9.6%，贷款同比+8.1%，规模增速均较一季度改善。大行、城商行是信贷投放主力，结构上呈现出对公强、零售弱的特征。此外，多数上市银行票据规模较一季度压降，信贷结构实现优化。负债端，上市行存款增长环比改善，定期化趋势逐步放缓。息差同比降幅企稳，环比仍承压。2025H1净息差（日均口径）同比下降13bp、较24年全年下降9bp至1.42%。从期初期末口径来看，2025H1净息差测算值同比下降14bp至1.36%，与一季度同比降幅基本持平。其中国有行净息差上半年降幅高于其他类型银行，主要是由于更高的按揭贷款占比；城农商行资产定价压力相对小，存款成本改善托底息差。不良稳定，减值计提力度回升，零售风险加速暴露。2025Q2末，上市银行不良率环比持平于1.23%，保持在2015年以来最低位；拨备覆盖率环比+1pct至238%，拨贷比环比持平于2.93%，风险抵补能力相对充足，拨备小幅提升。分行业不良来看，对公贷款不良率1.24%，较2024年末下降9bp；而零售风险加速暴露，上半年末不良率1.26%，较2024年末上升12bp。•风险提示：金融监管超预期变化，息差超预期收窄，资产质量超预期下行1目录CATALOGUE0102030405盈利：触底回升，营收、利润增速转正规模：对公政信+制造业为主，存款增长改善息差：同比降幅企稳，环比仍承压资产质量：不良稳定，减值计提力度回升资本提升，中期分红扩面2盈利：触底回升，营收、利润增速转正013盈利：触底回升，营收、利润增速转正1.1•触底回升，营收、利润增速转正。2025年上半年42家A股上市银行营收同比+1.0%，归母净利润同比+0.8%，分别较一季度回升2.8pct和2.0pct，营收、利润增速均环比转正。主要原因在于：①二季度债券市场表现回暖，投资相关收入增速大幅度回升。②去年同期的低基数影响下，二季度规模增长驱动贡献回升，净利息收入同比增速提升0.4pct至1.3%。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理4非息贡献转正，低基数下规模驱动边际改善1.1•拆分业绩驱动因素来看：①低基数影响下，规模增速环比修复，仍是银行业利润增长的核心动能。去年同期的低基数影响，规模增长对利润的正向拉动作用环比回升2.6pct至16.2%，仍是上市银行利润增长的主要动力。••②息差承压，拖累利润增长。由于二季度LPR再度下调以及实际信贷需求偏弱，息差拖累了18.6%的利润增长。③手续费、投资相关收入贡献转正。行业降费基数效应逐渐消退，中收增长对利润的贡献环比转正。同时得益于债券市场回暖，投资相关收入贡献回升，2025H1环比上升4.8pct至3.3%。•④拨备反哺利润趋弱。零售风险有所抬头，银行加大减值计提力度，资产减值计提拖累利润0.9%。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理5国股行业绩超预期改善，城农商行继续领跑1.2••国股行业绩超预期改善，城农商行继续领跑。国股行营收、利润均实现环比改善，股份行利润增速转正。①国有行营收和利润同比增速分别为1.9%和-0.1%，表现较一季度明显改善，主要是得益于非息收入增速的大幅提升，以及净利息收入的改善。②股份行营收和利润同比增速分别为-2.3%、0.3%，营收增速较一季度回升1.6pct，但仍承担着一定压力。而得益于对业务成本、信用成本的严格管控，利润增速则环比转正至0.3%。•城农商行上半年利润增速仍好于其他板块。①城商行营收和利润同比增速分别为5.2%和6.7%，均环比一季度回升，主要是得益于投资收入降幅的收窄；②农商行营收和利润同比增速分别为0.9%和4.4%，其中营收环比小幅提速，而受零售风险暴露影响，资产减值压力的加大使得利润增速环比放缓。2025H1业绩拆分（同比增速）增速较2025Q1变化（pcts）营收1.0%1.9%-2.3%5.2%0.9%归母净利润净利息-1.3%-2.4%-1.8%8.8%手续费投资相关11.2%40.9%-8.4%营收2.83.41.62.30.7归母净利润净利息0.4手续费投资相关16.9上市银行合计0.8%-0.1%0.3%6.7%4.4%3.1%4.7%-0.6%4.1%1.0%2.02.02.31.3-0.43.86.1六大行股份行城商行农商行1.023.1-1.20.30.313.6-3.0%-6.2-3.710.9-0.6%12.7%0.4-2.5数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理6国股行业绩改善，多家区域银行业绩超预期1.225H1

YoYPPoP增速变化（较2025Q1，pcts）•国有大行中，农业银行业绩继续领跑，国有行营收、利润增速环比提升。其中，建设银行、工商银行营收改善幅度最大，分别较一季度回升8pct、5pct，主要是得益于投资相关收入的明显改善。利润方面，邮储银行增速环比转正，农业银行增速继续领跑国有行。营收净利润营收PPoP净利润工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行1.6%2.2%0.8%3.8%0.8%1.5%-1.7%-2.3%2.6%-3.0%7.8%-5.6%-10.0%-5.9%-5.8%1.0%4.2%7.8%8.6%7.9%3.9%1.6%-12.2%5.9%4.6%7.5%1.8%7.0%-7.0%5.8%-1.9%43.7%0.5%-3.4%3.9%-1.8%0.5%10.1%3.4%0.2%10.5%1.7%1.7%3.4%-1.4%-1.4%2.7%-0.9%1.6%0.8%0.3%0.2%10.2%2.8%-4.9%0.6%-3.9%-7.9%-4.2%1.1%2.0%8.0%8.8%8.2%16.7%5.1%-7.2%7.3%2.1%16.0%6.2%5.4%-4.6%16.5%0.9%8.6%4.6%0.6%5.6%5.2%0.1%13.5%3.5%5.2%16.6%5.1%5859330.1%000国有行0.5%112-1.0%14.9%-2.6%-3.1%4.6%240283112112139-2.4%12.3%-6.2%-10.3%-9.4%-6.3%0.0%111股份行010-23-230212176浙商银行北京银行上海银行江苏银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行长沙银行贵阳银行成都银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行渝农商行沪农商行瑞丰银行青农商行紫金银行常熟银行无锡银行苏农银行江阴银行张家港行-12-54••股份行业绩总体承压，但较一季度有所改善。其中，浦发银行利润实现两位数高增，位居同业首位；招商银行、兴业银行利润增速超预期转正；中信银行、光大银行利润维持正增。45.7%0008.0%2009.6%23211.7%4.7%22222-111.6%-25-56-16.0%6.7%0城商行3328.4%26-30城农商行中，多家区域银行业绩超预期。在营收端，西安银行、江阴银行营收分别同比高增43.7%、10.5%，均显著超出市场预期。此外，常熟银行成长属性仍然突出，实现10%左右的收入增长；利润端，江阴银行、杭州银行、青岛银行、齐鲁银行实现15%以上的利润增速，领跑上市行。13.2%7.1%-2112-107.0%23-8.5%5.9%111152100-2.5%56.8%-0.8%-1.9%4.5%-536-14-646-56-14-20-1-35-6-38-1-3-40-3.8%2.6%农商行11.3%5.3%000003.2%-34-16-114214.6%2.8%-2-2数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理7净利息收入：压力环比改善，城商行表现强劲1.3••••净利息收入总体承压但环比改善，板块间表现分化，城商行强劲增长，其他板块净利息收入同比负增。国有行净利息收入降幅收窄至2.4%，但整体来看压力仍然存在。除交通银行同比+1.2%外，其他五家国有行净利息收入均同比减少。股份行净利息收入持续承压，上半年降幅扩大至1.8%，招商银行、民生银行、浦发银行净利息收入实现正增长。城商行净利息收入增速近两位数，主要是信贷增长强劲、息差降幅收窄。江苏银行、宁波银行、南京银行、杭州银行、青岛银行、重庆银行、齐鲁银行均实现两位数左右同比增速。西安银行得益于息差拐点的确认、信贷规模的强势扩张，净利息收入更是实现了超过50%的增速水平。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理8中收：国股行回暖趋势明显，城农商行有所分化1.3••二季度中收表现明显回升，同比增速已大幅回升至8.2%。2024年上半年主要受保险、基金费率调降、资本市场波动影响，代理保险、代理基金、代理信托等收入普遍下滑。而得益于今年资本市场的较好表现，中收实现较快增长。国有行中，2025H1邮储银行、农业银行均实现同比两位数增长，中国银行同比增长9.2%；股份行中，兴业银行、中信银行、民生银行、实现同比小幅正增；城商行中，长沙银行显著加大了对理财业务的投入力度，中收同比高增25.6%，北京银行、杭州银行、厦门银行、齐鲁银行同样实现两位数以上的同比高速增长。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理9投资相关收入：债市回暖下边际改善，大行加大兑现1.3••二季度得益于债券市场回暖，上市银行投资相关收入增速明显改善，对营收贡献显著提升国有行中建设银行和中国银行投资相关收入分别同比高增104.9%和66.2%，邮储银行、工商银行分别同比+28.4%/+28.2%，预计主要得益于AC、OCI账户部分浮盈兑现+汇兑收益表现良好，整体表现显著好于其他类型银行。•单看二季度股份行、城农商行均实现正增长，股份行增速相对较低，同比+5.2%，城商行、农商行分别同比+7.7%、+10.6%。其中，民生银行、郑州银行、兰州银行、沪农商行、紫金银行、江阴银行表现更优，均实现了30%以上的增速。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理10投资相关收入：AC、OCI兑现力度加大1.4投资收益细项拆分（百万元）投资收益+公允价值变动占比营收投资收益占比营收处置OCI+AC占比营收投资收益内部结构（2025H1）细项同比增速（2025H1）③TPL（持有及兑现）银行①OCI兑现②AC兑现2024H120242025H12024H120242025H12024H120242025H1

OCI兑现

AC兑现TPL其他OCI兑现

AC兑现TPL2024H1

2025H1

2024H12025H12024H12025H1工商银行农业银行中国银行建设银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行7.1%5.6%6.5%5.5%7.5%7.6%5.1%4.1%5.0%4.4%6.6%2.9%10.4%9.1%8.9%17.1%7.7%6.3%1.4%1.9%1.5%0.8%0.6%1.7%5.3%5.3%1.1%1.5%1.9%0.9%0.7%1.5%3.4%2.2%3.4%4.6%1.5%4.9%1.6%5.9%4.9%6.4%14%9%30%65%8%48%217%48%18%50%45%52%64%8%-190%20%13%31%1%21%-28%36%732%123%71%26%5%415%251%-32%391%438%390%-66%21%32%53%-8%3,8272,7452,8331,2057254,6491,9693,86310,0201,6162,0787,0431,5501,9454,3001,7701,91410410,02515,0881,2029,40056011,96432,7278,2901,0755,4778,9058,33815,36015,74350,1487,6485.8%6.3%5.7%5.9%4.9%24%36%13%11%32%8%3.5%3.6%6.4%2.3%7.1%34%5%358%10%0%4,92112.1%10.4%12.6%22.4%11.4%10.6%10.7%18.6%9.7%10.5%6.8%9.0%6,03913.1%10.0%20.0%11.0%12.9%16.6%43%6%1,2125,5821,4741,7313,5784,5318,4851,2175,4778,91911.3%19.5%10%-2%37%-24%11,40511,70830%注：平安银行19.0%18.9%15.9%15.9%16.8%18.3%4.1%4.0%5.2%16%12%73%-1%-15%113%8%2,4212,0597201,5368,6269,317中信银行浦发银行民生银行光大银行浙商银行17.6%18.1%8.9%15.5%16.2%10.3%13.3%22.0%24.3%20.3%31.8%14.5%17.3%15.0%12.8%17.7%18.6%21.2%33.3%12.9%14.7%15.5%11.1%15.8%17.3%19.6%30.3%13.7%17.1%11.3%9.4%14.8%16.6%12.8%15.7%19.6%19.0%20.9%39.1%4.8%4.7%5.5%0.7%8.8%3.8%6.0%12.5%4.4%3.5%3.7%0.8%7.1%4.4%5.3%12.8%5.8%9.6%7.4%6.3%8.3%6.9%11.5%21.0%26%24%28%21%43%34%30%22%13%34%30%19%0%47%38%7%14%3%15%168%-2%18%84%20%-28%-84%-34%20%3,6041,3432,6413314,1353,5952,5762,1942,7692,9382,2932,3281,6802,7831,0241401,9875,1242,7721,9746,1067,9804,0977,4382,0856,5434,6044,1127,3335,7676641、投资收益主要包括：①TPL持有期间投资收益（利息收入/分红收益等）；②处置金融工具的价差收益（AC/OCI/TPL、衍生金融工具等）；③其他（包括长期股权投资收益、股利收入等）；35%13%19%-2%-1%5%171%1310%14.8%21.2%23.3%22.0%30.4%47%38%65%46%41%563%-11%69%4,8972,5035,6263,4864,43216.8%16.2%19.3%24.8%3,1021,7411,3108612%135%130%41%-14%-24%8%88207北京银行上海银行25%32%75%8231,8893,403170%2,408江苏银行24.3%22.8%17.2%19.4%18.1%17.7%2.8%2.2%6.0%34%0%76%-10%136%-14%1,1572,7350-257,0746,081南京银行宁波银行杭州银行成都银行苏州银行长沙银行齐鲁银行青岛银行41.5%24.6%26.7%19.9%23.6%19.5%18.4%18.2%41.8%20.6%25.4%18.8%24.9%15.7%16.1%15.1%34.4%21.2%21.5%20.1%19.4%19.9%12.9%19.7%25.1%18.4%23.9%17.3%18.5%11.2%13.4%10.9%27.1%20.6%19.1%15.8%19.0%12.0%14.0%12.7%28.4%22.5%28.5%18.5%20.0%24.0%16.4%19.7%5.8%6.5%2.2%11.4%4.5%1.0%5.6%3.1%6.2%5.6%0.4%8.5%3.6%0.9%4.2%3.4%10.1%8.7%9.6%13.3%9.0%8.1%5.9%7.2%22%39%19%40%27%21%36%14%14%0%58%59%61%34%52%66%55%67%7%2%6%-6%3%1%9%-3%141%46%159%62%48%334%11%-7%42%3%8%7332,2264195552381543622241,7683,2481,0868997821,1144,5184,5753,7776484,6534,9523,46577715%32%18%13%0%3682357%-5%-8%20%-22%61%44%79%0.02763488477292324012、部分银行将TPL持有期间收益和处置价差收益合并披露379%3548686772506%666-171,3064222,09960940223%20934305631,008重庆银行19.0%18.1%17.8%22.2%17.3%20.7%11.4%6.0%7.5%36%0%56%8%104%-100%856%54%282576533555738843、处置AC及FV-OCI两类资产收益较多，不一定代表银行显著增加了资产处置规模。结合债市利率波动下行背景，处置价差收益拉大预计也有较多贡献。西安银行厦门银行郑州银行贵阳银行兰州银行27.2%22.6%12.3%18.4%12.9%28.1%22.1%15.3%21.6%20.5%21.3%17.4%16.4%18.9%18.5%15.8%19.3%9.1%22.3%17.8%14.2%14.9%15.2%19.4%24.9%18.4%26.8%23.8%3.3%5.2%0.6%2.6%0.2%1.7%4.6%3.4%1.9%2.4%11.7%11.7%11.3%11.7%5.1%8%52%0%25%53%39%56%76%15%0%0%0%2%25%107%915%353%2578%2%65152368153024640755082753525135748197771047%30%43%21%-12%-12%18%33%31436875019231%1%38613813.8%13.5%-55%412%16672821%渝农商行沪农商行常熟银行17.1%13.9%16.8%13.6%13.5%15.1%14.7%16.5%17.7%19.0%10.2%16.7%14.9%9.2%17.0%15.3%19.8%7.3%1.5%3.8%5.0%2.1%3.2%9.5%8.3%41%55%16%15%0%44%42%16%0%3%432%466%77%-57%-100%560%-35%-14%-66%1921981081,0211,12219288263771,6861,0015891,09886313.7%14.3%56%11%102673198瑞丰银行无锡银行28.6%27.1%24.1%22.5%25.1%29.6%24.7%25.4%21.5%21.1%27.3%30.6%13.3%13.2%12.4%8.8%16.2%21.4%56%11%3%29%17%11%13%24%17%122%84%3%280763479081917421018014159%-33%260478江阴银行28.2%23.9%37.6%22.4%22.2%36.7%13.4%11.7%11.4%8.3%28.9%26.7%3%76%43%16%15%5%30%-3%147%-20%-66%222827013666361178380142128苏农银行张家港行紫金银行青农商行36.9%28.9%13.6%27.1%31.3%25.2%12.7%24.9%36.4%36.4%27.0%25.1%30.9%26.5%14.2%11.8%26.8%27.4%12.1%17.0%36.5%33.3%27.6%17.8%30%12%2726%25424712.2%3.6%10.0%0.9%22.7%19.1%26%32%56%75%1%17%-2%124%581%73%-39%7848175328213164368770116-6%369%-112%493-57上市银行合计国有大行股份行11.2%6.5%10.6%6.4%11.2%7.7%9.1%5.0%9.1%5.5%11.2%7.2%2.7%1.4%4.7%5.5%5.9%2.3%1.3%3.5%4.9%4.5%5.2%3.8%23%18%24%28%31%24%34%17%15%32%59%71%50%55%24%-6%-23%8%66%93%134%280%40%9%37%-11%1%44,99012,54722,2398,94674,87324,19528,85918,2683,55133,65411,76414,5445,42778,63544,76020,2949,869175,34068,43866,57335,6064,723191,23893,41859,22035,9012,69916.9%25.0%20.0%15.4%24.0%17.4%15.1%22.4%21.2%14.5%19.9%17.0%13.5%19.4%15.3%15.5%23.8%21.0%6.4%30%城商行10.3%13.3%1%104%182%82%农商行13%93%-43%1,2581,9183,712数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理112025H1国股行业绩驱动拆分1.42025H1业绩拆分增速较2025Q1变化营收归母净利润净利息手续费投资相关营收

归母净利润

净利息

手续费

投资相关工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行1.6%2.2%-1.4%-1.4%2.7%-0.1%-3.2%-2.9%-5.3%1.2%-0.6%4.0%28.2%104.9%21.6%66.2%-1.2%4.8%7.6%0.5%1.2%1.8%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.3%0.7%0.4%-1.5%3.0%11.9%1.3%2.6%2.6%0.5%2.1%0.1%3.5%2.3%2.4%9.2%1.1%0.3%0.2%1.7%6.1%-4.8%2.7%2.1%0.6%8.7%42%120%-25%-1%22%1%0.8%10.1%9.2%-0.1%

13.6%-0.8%

7.1%-1.3%

-0.2%国有行3.8%-0.9%1.6%0.8%-2.6%11.6%-1.9%2.6%1.5%0.8%-2.7%1.6%28.4%-21.9%-7.4%1.1%2.8%0.6%-1.7%-2.3%2.6%0.3%-0.3%9%0.2%-1.5%0.4%-2.8%

-5.9%14%8%10.2%2.8%-1.0%3.4%8.9%0.0%-4.0%-1.2%1.3%0.1%-1.0%2.7%4.4%-4.1%6.2%-3.0%7.8%-1.9%1.3%-14.4%89.3%-11.0%-19.6%-22.6%-17.3%15%26%-12%15%86%13%股份行-4.9%0.6%0.4%-5.6%-10.0%-5.9%-5.8%-5.6%-9.3%-3.6%-2.5%-0.9%-2.0%2.6%-3.9%-7.9%-4.2%-1.0%

-8.9%-3.9%

-4.5%浙商银行-17.6%数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理122025H1城农商行业绩驱动拆分1.42025H1业绩拆分增速较2025Q1变化营收归母净利润净利息手续费投资相关营收归母净利润

净利息

手续费

投资相关北京银行上海银行江苏银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行长沙银行贵阳银行成都银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行渝农商行沪农商行瑞丰银行青农商行紫金银行常熟银行无锡银行苏农银行江阴银行张家港行1.0%4.2%7.8%8.6%7.9%3.9%1.6%-12.2%5.9%4.6%7.5%1.8%7.0%-7.0%5.8%-1.9%43.7%0.5%-3.4%3.9%-1.8%0.5%10.1%3.4%0.2%10.5%1.7%1.1%2.0%8.0%8.8%8.2%16.7%5.1%-7.2%7.3%2.1%16.0%6.2%5.4%-4.6%16.5%0.9%8.6%4.6%0.6%5.6%5.2%0.1%13.5%3.5%5.2%16.6%5.1%1.2%1.7%20.4%-6.0%5.1%-4.0%13.7%-20.0%-6.4%-0.3%-10.7%8.3%4.2%0.3%1.6%2.1%2.3%1.7%-2.2%4.7%2.7%2.4%-2.2%1.0%1.7%11.4%1.0%-5.1%35.6%-0.9%4.0%-1.2%-2.8%5.3%0.1%-0.1%-3.1%4.4%-1.6%3.6%-0.3%-0.1%1.8%2.6%-4.0%2.2%13%7%-2.9%19.1%22.1%11.1%9.4%-2.8%

-16.6%4.3%

-11.3%15%4%6.7%4.0%2.5%-0.5%5.4%6%10.8%25.6%5.7%-0.6%1.2%2.5%

-11.4%-3.6%

-27.5%-0.6%

55.3%3.8%

-12.8%7%-1.7%-15.3%7.6%12%14%3%-9.9%12.1%39.3%20.3%-5.2%1.4%-0.4%1.6%城商行-45.1%-11.9%-13.3%9.0%1.0%-2.9%-0.4%-0.6%0.1%7.4%0.2%-4.2%4.3%-36%-1%9%12.2%2.7%3.3%

-13.5%-15.9%

-26.8%12.2%-0.5%13.3%-8.1%59.9%6.0%-28.6%10.5%13.6%-13.5%0.1%74%28%-6%-38%83%-1%-5%-12%-4%57%-12%-4%-4%15%-17%-25.8%-24.8%40.5%12.5%-15.2%34.5%-6.4%-9.0%99.7%36.7%12.7%4.4%9.6%4.2%5.4%7.2%5.0%7.3%9.4%0.0%-1.5%4.3%-4.1%14.2%-13.2%-4.1%274.1%1.7%-1.6%0.3%0.7%

-10.0%0.2%

2.2%0.8%

693.1%-5.5%3.4%-1.1%-2.7%-3.9%-0.3%0.4%1.5%-0.7%-2.0%-0.1%-5.7%7.6%-17.0%0.8%27.8%637.8%-24.4%69.4%-35.2%140.0%农商行143%5.1%0.0%

-13.3%0.0%

-276.6%1.2%

-16.1%-2.9%-0.2%-10.5%-1.0%14.4%1.9%46.9%29.7%4.1%4.5%数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理13规模：对公政信+制造业为主，存款增长改善0214资产端：贷款需求偏弱，大行、城商行是增长主力2.1••信贷需求有待修复，城商行、国有行增速高于其他类型银行。2025年二季度末，上市银行总资产同比+9.6%，贷款同比+8.1%，规模增速季度环比上升2.1pct、0.1pct，资产增速的提升主要得益于债券投资规模的增长，信贷需求仍处于修复阶段。分银行类型来看，国有行、城商行贷款规模分别同比增长8.9%、13.2%，增速均环比一季度上升0.1pct，是信贷增长的主力。而股份行、农商行贷款规模分别同比增长3.9%、6.7%，增速分别较一季度下降0.3pct、0.4pct，增速仍承压。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理15贷款增速：对公强零售弱，票据压降结构优化2.1••国有行中，邮储银行贷款同比增速10.5%，增速领跑国有大行。多家国有大行对公增速季度环比提升，票据贴现规模环比减少，信贷结构实现优化。股份行中，招商银行、浦发银行实现5%以上的信贷增速水平。对公端，招商银行、浦发银行、中信银行、光大银行同比增速均超10%；零售端，招商银行、兴业银行、浦发银行、中信银行、光大银行均同比实现正增长，预计增量主要于个人消费贷。总资产YoY25H1贷款YoY25H1对公贷款增速25H1零售贷款增速25H1票据贴现增速25Q1变化(pcts)25Q1变化(pcts)25Q1变化25Q1变化25Q125H1变化工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行8.3%7.7%6.3%6.9%7.4%8.3%8.8%3.6%5.5%8.7%0.7%4.8%0.8%3.2%8.9%7.5%7.4%5.2%11.0%10.3%11.6%8.5%8.9%10.8%9.4%2.6%4.2%8.3%2.9%6.5%2.1%5.1%3.1%9.6%10.4%5.3%2.72.68.5%8.0%10.0%8.3%8.7%10.1%4.7%5.0%7.5%5.1%0.6%5.4%-1.8%2.9%7.0%8.0%8.8%4.2%8.5%7.9%9.9%9.1%8.8%10.5%5.7%4.3%5.9%3.8%1.1%4.9%0.1%2.5%4.4%8.1%8.9%3.9%(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)0.8工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行6.7%7.0%3.8%7.5%6.7%0.8%-0.2%3.9%3.1%2.7%7.8%3.8%3.9%7.6%1.5%10.7%3.7%3.9%1.0%3.7%0.9%-0.4%0.3%-5.2%-0.3%-7.0%0.7%1.2%-0.2%80.4%95.0%110.0%47.2%54.9%63.7%90.2%-9.1%-33.2%-40.0%-46.2%5.37.7%1.69.2%1.50.17.8%15.2%9.2%6.3%9.2%10.6%0.9%8.8%1.0%3.4%2.2%0.6%3.6%0.0%-3.4%11.4%4.3%4.5%1.0%1.6%1.6%-0.2%-0.7%-0.6%-0.7%0.1%2.5%26.9%-20.3%16.1%-11.7%-16.2%0.5%2.50.418.6%11.5%6.9%10.7%-19.8%-7.9%0.61.0(1.1)(1.3)(0.4)2.2(0.7)(1.7)(1.4)0.5-24.0%12.8%10.5%-2.4%10.1%9.0%2.1%-41.3%-35.0%-50.6%-31.4%-20.4%-47.9%10.3%-0.7%-0.2%1.7(0.5)1.91.39.1%-0.1%-7.9%2.7%-19.7%-0.7%1.9(0.4)(2.6)0.06.7%浙商银行上市银行六大行(5.8)2.12.9浙商银行8.4%0.1股份行0.1(0.3)注：均为同比增速数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理16贷款增速：优质城商行延续强势扩张2.1•城农商行受益于优质区域景气度，贷款延续高速增长，业绩黑马需关注。江苏银行贷款增长提速明显，对公和零售分别同比+24%、+10%，双双高增。南京银行、宁波银行、成都银行和重庆银行贷款同比增速超过15%，零售贷款均延续回暖，增速持续提升，对公贷款维持强劲，其中重庆银行对公贷款增速同比大幅增长29%，主要受益于重庆区域蓄势强劲。西安银行二季度加大信贷投放力度，贷款规模同比高增35%，对公、零售贷款分别同比增长39.4%、42.2%，领跑上市银行。总资产YoY贷款YoY对公贷款增速零售贷款增速票据贴现增速25Q125H1变化(pcts)25Q125H1变化(pcts)25Q125H1变化25Q125H1变化25Q125H1变化北京银行上海银行江苏银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行长沙银行贵阳银行成都银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行渝农商行青农商行紫金银行沪农商行瑞丰银行常熟银行无锡银行苏农银行江阴银行张家港行上市银行城商行14.8%3.7%20.3%2.2%5.6(1.5)5.510.5%0.5%10.5%1.2%(0.1)0.7北京银行上海银行江苏银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行长沙银行贵阳银行成都银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行渝农商行青农商行紫金银行沪农商行瑞丰银行常熟银行无锡银行苏农银行江阴银行张家港行14.8%0.2%3.3%-6.4%9.6%4.5%27.2%-2.5%-0.3%27.6%-0.4%25.9%14.5%28.8%18.2%0.7%-1.6%1.6%-4.6%10.0%15.4%6.1%-1.7%-0.4%-0.1%-3.8%-5.3%19.1%8.1%24.4%16.1%28.5%17.5%19.1%0.4%-14.6%12.1%21.5%15.4%17.6%15.9%14.1%2.9%27.0%16.9%14.4%12.6%13.7%3.9%19.4%15.0%20.9%14.5%12.6%4.2%18.8%15.3%19.1%12.2%13.0%1.4%(0.6)0.315.2%2.3%1.5-0.3%-0.8%32.5%-4.9%(3.2)(3.3)(0.4)1.0(1.8)(2.3)0.46.1%0.8%2.0%5.2%-14.3%1231.8%105.0%13.6%-28.0%-26.5%-41.1%12.7%0.0%1.5%17.7%3.1%-1.1%-2.1%-0.8%1.3%3.1%-1.6%8.1%2.5%-2.7%3.7%0.8%6.3%13.4%10.5%0.7%8.3%2.0%-0.5%-1.0%-3.6%-0.2%-0.9%-1.4%-2.3%4.6%133.4%99.6%-147.8%5.4%(2.9)1.015.6%2.3%12.9%9.4%13.3%11.6%14.5%12.2%19.3%5.4%14.3%11.5%13.6%14.5%22.0%8.9%1.117.3%9.7%18.3%9.2%(0.2)(0.8)2.3(0.5)0.317.4%20.7%30.8%11.4%18.1%5.7%18.8%23.8%29.2%19.5%20.6%2.9%-2.8%-5.5%4.3%13.2%13.1%16.3%0.5%13.5%12.3%19.5%3.9%-5.3%5.2%(0.9)3.1-55.6%17.5%29.2%-4.8%2.7-9.1%-2.3%8.8%-10.5%-4.6%13.4%42.2%2.7%3.63.414.7%6.5%16.0%8.3%1.412.6%6.0%13.8%4.6%1.11.8(1.3)12.21.535.7%17.3%39.4%18.1%6.4%35.5%1.7%6.7%-90.5%-28.8%-90.1%-21.6%-3.8%0.3%7.2%17.8%8.0%21.1%8.0%3.223.1%6.9%35.3%8.4%1.0%(0.0)(1.7)(6.1)(0.3)(1.7)2.62.0%8.0%6.3%5.4%4.1%(1.3)(1.0)(1.6)(1.4)(0.9)(1.0)1.02.3%7.4%5.4%3.1%0.4%0.0%-5.2%2.3%1.1%4.8%-4.1%-1.8%3.3%-10.2%1.8%-8.4%-1.5%-0.4%0.0%0.7%-1.0%1.3%5.0%32.8%10.4%4.1%18.9%1.3%-13.9%-9.1%7.1%1.0%4.7%3.6%7.8%6.8%6.5%7.2%5.6%16.6%13.0%10.1%1.2%16.7%7.8%7.3%6.9%-21.9%38.6%16.8%20.2%-18.4%11.6%-26.1%17.3%-19.2%21.0%-22.1%-5.7%11.1%6.7%9.4%11.4%6.6%10.0%5.7%0.1%0.1%21.3%35.9%-0.8%3.7%9.2%12.3%2.4%-8.1%1.6%-7.3%0.6%8.8%9.1%0.311.5%3.8%10.5%4.8%4.8%2.6%(2.1)0.011.7%20.5%16.4%16.5%-6.7%-12.2%-5.4%-7.2%11.1%3.2%11.2%3.3%8.4%8.1%(0.2)(0.3)0.017.3%0.18.3%8.1%7.5%14.1%7.5%9.6%15.5%6.9%2.18.0%13.1%7.1%8.1%13.2%6.7%1.30.1注：均为同比增速农商行(0.5)(0.4)数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理17贷款结构：对公贡献占比持续提升2.1•投放结构来看，以五篇大文章为代表的重点领域仍然是信贷投放的最主要方向。2025H1上市银行对公贷款规模同比增长9.1%，主要投向基建、政信领域贷款，对公贷款占比较年初+2pct至60%。而零售信贷需求目前还处于修复阶段，上半年仅同比增长3.6%，且预计主要增量于个人消费贷，按揭、个人经营贷、信用卡规模均存在较大的压力。但考虑到消费贷、服务业经营主体贷贴息政策的落地，三季度后零售贷款需求或将回暖，利好零售贷款规模增速的边际回升。注：均为同比增速数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理18贷款结构：对公为主，政信、制造业仍是主力2.1•对公贡献了主要增量，上半年企业贷款贡献88%。上半年信贷增量结构方面，对公贷款贡献了上市银行88%的信贷增量，零售、票据贴现分别贡献11%、1%，其中租赁和商业服务业、制造业分别贡献了22%、20%的信贷增量。分银行类型来看，国有行、城商行77%、90%的增量贷款于对公贷款；股份行、农商行对公占增量贷款占比则分别高达168%、111%，票据贴现占比分别为-62%、-13%，信贷结构实现优化。上市银行2024A

2025H1127,176

102,456六大行2024A股份行2024A城商行2024A农商行2024A上市银行六大行股份行城商行农商行增量（亿元）增量占比2025H177,59260,03415,3215,6871,0625,3805,09814,1514,5893,29011,342-1110,06416,8833,6271,100-1122025H113,53812,1791,8173342025H11,2611,400152222024A

2025H12024A

2025H12024A

2025H12024A

2025H12024A

2025H1贷款原值95,54759,8209,74916,27414,7344,85683213,56011,9662,0043081,7951,23928691贷款原值企业贷款100%69%13%9%100%88%20%7%100%63%10%11%3%100%77%20%7%100%91%30%5%100%168%36%11%-1%12%11%31%8%100%88%15%2%100%90%13%2%100%69%16%5%100%111%12%2%企业贷款制造业87,75916,89411,8204,29590,49620,9177,1441,3907,2317,41622,2306,1575,69910,9191,203-2,0643,5248,641834制造业交通运输10,5893,034交通运输房地产业8543542175322332房地产业3%1%1%5%3%2%3%18%3%电力、燃气公用批发零售11,4195,6039,1731,7885201,1631,1443,14879841565643电力、燃气公用批发零售9%7%10%4%7%11%3%3%5%2%3,5401,2754,347447953268193127-10138222246115884%7%7%9%7%15%11%7%18%19%9%租赁和商业建筑18,3214,29510,8413,4402,9392814,686655租赁和商业建筑14%3%22%6%11%4%18%6%18%2%32%3%35%5%水利、环境和公共设施5,4973,9442908971,3651,8083481,424100水利、环境和公共设施4%6%4%4%2%9%10%13%3%11%1%-6%2%7%零售贷款23,320-4,2852,01020,628-6,6764,235846-55229零售贷款18%-3%2%11%1%22%-7%4%15%-1%-1%4%5%-5%19%-16%0%2%住房贷款1,990-2,2844401,948-1,562127752-13-1349住房贷款12%-14%3%2%3%-1%-1%4%信用卡贷款消费贷款83-72-23162165516信用卡贷款-2%3%1%-1%3%-1%9%11,67224,62613,4829,8953,1289,8445,9791,175175346消费贷款9%10%25%16%9%个人经营性贷款23,84915,259438-768-4431,2877个人经营性及其它贷款19%11%8%13%8%3%-8%-62%1%-3%10%9%1%票据贴现-2,086-6,263-207-169票据贴现1%-13%-2%29%-13%数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理19负债端：国股行存款增长延续改善趋势2.2•存款增速延续改善趋势，国有行增速明显回升。2025年二季度末上市银行存款同比+8.3%，增速季度环比提升2.1pct，延续改善趋势，其中国有行、股份行、城商行和农商行同比增速分别为+7.7%、+8.5%、+13.3%和+7.0%。国有行存款增速显著回升，股份行与一季度基本持平，城商行、农商行增速则分别环比下降2.0pct、0.8pct，城商行仍维持两位数以上的高速增长，农商行面临一定揽储压力。数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理20存款增速：国股行环比改善，城农商行增速放缓2.2存款YoY25H1对公存款增速个人存款增速较2025Q1变化(pcts)4.2较2024A变化(pcts)7.1较2024A变化(pcts)1.325Q124A25Q125H124A25Q125H1•（1）国有行存款规模普遍提速，主要是得益于对公存款同比增速转正，其中，农业银行、工商银行改善幅度最为明显，存款规模增速分别较一季度上升5.2pct、4.2pct。而除邮储银行外，其余五家个人存款规模均实现两位数高增，是存款规模增长的重要动能。工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行4.0%3.6%8.2%6.1%-4.3%-3.5%-3.6%2.2%--5.1%-7.9%-2.7%0.0%11.9%9.3%-13.2%11.0%12.9%11.5%10.4%7.6%2.53.510.2%9.2%-1.83.1%8.3%5.20.1%3.79.2%3.66.2%8.5%2.36.5%4.49.9%1.64.8%6.0%1.2-2.8%13.6%8.6%-5.0%20.5%-2.8%5.611.1%9.1%7.0%7.9%-(0.7)(1.5)(3.6)2.89.2%8.4%(0.9)(1.7)(1.4)0.914.5%6.4%1.010.2%10.3%10.9%11.4%2.6%8.5%(2.2)1.915.4%15.4%12.2%13.4%7.6%11.8%18.2%9.8%8.9%5.9%-7.8%-11.8%10.7%5.9%-0.4%4.7%8.6%-100.0%0.1%-4.9%5.316.3%16.7%8.3%-(2.4)0.4(0.6)3.39.5%4.813.8%7.1%-4.0%-8.1%2.1%5.7%9.7(0.5)0.13.5%8.5%5.09.4%17.51.77.0%7.1%6.2%3.5%(2.7)4.76.3%-3.8%6.6%6.0%-2.9%(3.7)3.33.7%8.4%-2.3%1.0%4.4%6.87.6%10.9%19.5%14.0%6.4%浙商银行北京银行上海银行江苏银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行长沙银行贵阳银行成都银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行渝农商行青农商行紫金银行沪农商行瑞丰银行常熟银行无锡银行苏农银行江阴银行张家港行上市银行六大行6.0%6.6%0.5-4.1%3.113.0%19.7%6.8%-6.419.1%4.4%13.3%1.6%(5.8)(2.8)5.612.7%2.9%-12.8%-0.5%23.6%12.6%13.8%13.1%4.7%0.1-(5.7)(0.5)1.9-(3.4)(1.2)4.5-••（2）多家股份存款增速环比改善，其中浦发银行、中信银行16.0%16.8%20.2%21.1%11.0%7.8%21.6%16.2%12.9%16.2%11.2%6.1%24.7%8.1%19.2%15.2%21.3%19.8%-16.2%11.7%19.7%31.3%15.0%13.1%23.8%24.7%16.6%20.4%24.2%22.8%13.3%7.3%15.0%19.9%16.1%29.3%-18.1%23.2%9.6%(0.6)(7.3)(4.9)0.211.5(10.1)(5.2)1.116.4%16.9%2.6%(2.5)(3.8)2.1存款均保持两位数同比增速。光大银行、、民生银行26.1%16.1%11.2%24.6%5.5%(1.8)(0.8)(0.2)(2.0)(1.2)1.7-1.9%3.8%4.3%8.7%6.3%13.0%9.4%-0.2%2.211.2%23.5%28.7%17.1%15.7%-(1.9)0.8存款提速明显，存款增速分别一季度提升5.0pct、4.7pct和3.3pct。15.6%16.5%14.9%12.8%19.3%14.9%14.2%6.6%14.8%16.2%12.9%11.6%20.9%12.5%12.5%6.2%5.7%1.9-3.0%7.6%7.2%9.6%10.32.0(19.2)0.517.2%15.4%24.9%23.5%16.5%8.7%8.6%7.2%(1.4)14.112.62.4(5.0)0.8-4.0%-6.4%7.5%10.1%6.2%(2.3)(1.7)(0.5)(5.6)0.09.4%14.9%-0.8%28.2%9.1%-23.6%14.9%8.8%9.9%9.2%-0.79.9%3.12.4%-5.0%16.9%13.2%7.0%(7.4)10.721.82.71.417.2%8.8%11.5%8.9%6.2%11.6%8.2%7.9%(3.8)0.6（3）中小行存款增速环比下行，城商行保持高增趋势，农商行面临揽储压力。二季度多数城商行存款增速回落，其中宁波银行、杭州银行存款增速分别季度环比下降7.3pct、4.9pct至12.9%、16.2%，但仍保持两位数高增。农商行二季度增速普遍下行，瑞丰银行、苏农银行分别环比下降7.1pct、5.9pct，-8.6%4.3%8.8%9.2%7.6%(1.6)(4.2)(0.1)(7.1)8.1%8.3%0.24.4%0.2%-9.2%0.3%-9.5%1.4%--17.1%9.4%(7.8)9.114.4%9.7%26.8%9.5%-10.3%8.5%(4.0)(1.3)(2.4)5.7%5.6%13.7%6.6%0.5%-5.8%157.

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))(4.8)1.94.5%9.5%5.4%8.3%7.7%8.5%13.3%7.0%-2.2%-4.4%19.3%35.4%4.7%2.8%34.7%8.8%15.0%-4.3%8.7%(1.6)0.92.1----------11.6%11.4%10.8%16.4%9.5%3.0-2.1%1.8%1.4股份行0.46.6%-1.1-0.5-1.5城商行(2.0)(0.8)10.6%-1.9%11.1%6.5%农商行面临一定揽储压力。农商行注：均为同比增速数据：各公司公告，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理21存款结构：定期化趋势放缓2.2对公存款占比25H1个人存款占比25H1存款活期率25H124A变化24A变化24A变化••存款定期化趋势放缓。截至上半年，上市银行定期存款占比较年初上升1pct至60%，而活期存款占比则下降至37%，定期化趋势逐步放缓。其中国有行、股份行、农商行活期存款占比分别较年初下降0.7pct、1.0pct、0.6pct，城商行则较年初上升0.4pct，实现逆势上升。展望下半年，考虑到资本市场近期较为火热的表现，财富效应的外溢或将利好存款活期化程度的改善，下半年定期存款占比的上升幅度有望进一步收窄。行业结构上，上市银行2025H1企业、个人存款占比分别为44.6%、51.8%，个人存款占比仍处于上升阶段。其中国有行、农商行个人存款占比明显高于股份行、城商行。工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行44.5%39.9%33.7%47.4%55.7%10.8%55.1%62.0%68.1%70.2%68.0%55.0%62.5%66.6%82.4%59.0%63.9%53.8%66.7%71.7%71.0%40.6%45.2%45.8%37.0%47.8%45.3%39.2%56.1%48.7%25.2%40.3%13.8%26.5%33.5%38.7%24.5%18.7%28.7%31.6%32.1%36.0%45.1%38.8%63.6%56.9%27.2%44.2%38.8%32.8%46.8%55.0%11.7%54.4%60.7%64.4%69.8%66.9%56.6%63.1%65.2%80.8%60.6%64.3%54.8%64.6%73.3%69.8%40.2%43.6%44.5%37.0%48.0%45.3%39.2%54.7%48.7%23.7%42.2%13.9%25.4%30.7%40.8%23.7%20.3%29.5%30.4%31.5%35.4%44.6%38.3%62.7%57.0%27.4%-0.3%-1.0%-0.9%-0.6%-0.7%0.9%53.2%56.6%61.7%47.4%42.4%89.1%43.9%27.8%30.1%28.3%30.0%31.7%35.8%25.3%15.8%29.9%34.3%38.1%31.2%26.5%23.3%52.5%49.8%49.5%50.9%49.6%52.3%52.6%37.7%49.2%68.1%54.9%85.8%71.2%59.4%53.5%68.7%69.2%60.2%59.5%58.9%60.6%51.2%57.9%32.3%37.6%66.6%53.7%57.9%63.2%48.2%43.2%88.3%44.7%28.7%29.2%28.8%31.4%31.5%35.4%25.4%17.3%29.9%34.2%36.6%33.3%25.0%24.5%54.1%51.9%51.6%56.5%49.9%52.5%53.2%39.3%49.6%68.7%53.6%85.8%72.8%63.2%53.7%71.8%68.3%61.8%61.8%62.2%62.4%51.8%58.7%32.6%37.9%67.7%0.5%1.3%1.5%0.8%0.8%-0.9%0.9%0.9%-0.9%0.5%1.5%-0.1%-0.5%0.1%1.5%0.0%-0.2%-1.5%2.1%-1.5%1.2%1.6%2.0%2.1%5.6%0.3%0.3%0.6%1.7%0.4%0.6%-1.3%-0.1%1.6%3.9%0.2%3.1%-0.8%1.5%2.3%3.3%1.8%0.6%0.8%0.4%0.3%1.1%39.1%42.4%40.2%40.0%33.1%27.1%51.7%36.7%38.9%42.5%33.4%26.3%33.2%31.9%26.0%29.7%33.5%26.9%21.1%30.2%39.5%38.5%30.2%28.9%25.0%26.2%26.3%16.4%27.4%27.4%29.8%26.0%26.1%25.9%21.6%30.0%28.3%17.6%21.7%29.3%29.2%20.1%37.6%38.5%38