2025 年国际商会脉冲调查：企业对美国新关税的反应 ICC Pulse Survey 2025 Business reactions to new U.S. tariffs

ICCPulseSurvey2025

Business

reactionstonew

U.S.tariffs

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary 3

Noteworthy 3

Informationonrespondents 4

2

Aprilannouncement:newU.S.tariffssparkconcern 5

Biggestconcernsrelatedtothenewtariffmeasures 7

Outlookforthenext6–12months 8

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|2

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|3

TheInternationalChamberofCommerce(ICC)conductedarapidsurveyfrom3Aprilto11April

2025ofitsglobalbusinessnetworktoassesstheimpactofnewlyannouncedU.S.tariffmeasures.Thesurveygatheredinsightsfrom448respondentsacross68countries,representingadiverse

rangeofcompanysizesandsectors.Thefindingshighlightwidespreadconcernamong

businessesregardingrisingcosts,supplychainuncertainty,andthepotentialfortraderetaliation.

ExecutiveSummary

•TheApril2025ICCPulseSurveyrevealsstrongconcernamongbusinessesworldwidefollowingtheannouncementofnewU.S.tariffmeasureson2April2025.Sixtypercentofrespondents

viewedtheannouncementnegatively,withworriescenteredonrisingcosts,disruptedsupplychains,andretaliatorytradeactions.

•Whileexpectedsectorssuchasmanufacturingandagricultureanticipatedirectimpacts,thefindingsalsohighlightunexpectedlyhighconcernamongservice-orientedsectorslike

accommodationandfoodservices—pointingtopotentialindirectorknock-oneffectsofthetariffs.

•Surveyresponsesfrom68countriesshowagrowingsenseofuncertainty:threeinten

businessesnowreportamorepessimisticoutlook,andfourintensaytheyaremorecautiousaboutthenext6–12months.

•Theriskperceptiongapbetweensmallandlargebusinessesisstriking,particularlyregardingpotentialtraderetaliation,withlargeenterprises(50%)beingsignificantlymoreconcerned

thansmallerbusinesses(25-35%).

•Thesefindingssuggestthetariffsarenotonlyperceivedasathreattoglobaltradeflowsbutarealsocompoundingbroaderplanningchallengesfacedbybusinesses.Theprivatesectoriscallingforpredictability,coordination,andmechanismstode-escalatetradetensionsbeforetheyripplefurtherthroughsupplychainsandmarkets.

Noteworthy

•Accommodationandfoodservicessectorfeelstheimpactoftariffs.OverhalfofrespondentsinthissectorreportedasignificantlynegativeoutlookinresponsetotheU.S.tariffmeasures—anunexpectedresultforasectornottypicallyinvolvedincross-bordergoodstrade.Thismayreflectdownstreameffectsontourismorimportedinputs(e.g.,food,kitchenequipment).

•Tariffstriggermixedregionalreactions.ThenegativeimpactofnewU.S.tariffmeasuresisbeingfeltacrossallregions.However,businessesinEastAsiareportbeingparticularly

affected.Incontrast,businessesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricafeellessexposed,whilethoseinSub-SaharanAfricaremainuncertain.

•Uniformimpact—butdifferentriskperceptionsbysize.ThenewU.S.tariffsarereportedto

havenearlythesamelevelofimpactacrosscompaniesregardlessofsize.However,larger

firmsaremorelikelytoflagconcernsaboutrisingcostsandglobalsupplychaindisruptions,

with50%oflargebusinessesconcernedaboutretaliatoryactionscomparedtoonly25-35%ofsmallerbusinesses.Thissignificantperceptiongapsuggestssmallerbusinessesappeareitherlessexposedorlessimmediatelyawareofdownstreamrisks.Thiscouldindicateapotential

blindspotforSMEsthatmaybeunpreparedforsecond-ordereffects.

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|4

Informationonrespondents

•ThesurveywassharedwiththeICCglobalnetworkofbusinessesandchambersandreceivedatotalof448responsesacross68countries.Theseresponsesincludeinputfrombusinessandchamberexecutives,withSMEsaccountingfor56%ofrespondentsandlargeenterprises

representing42%ofthesample.

•Thesurveygatheredresponsesfrom68countries,withthehighestnumberscomingfrom

Turkiye(99),Germany(60),Italy(38),Tunisia(27),andSouthAfrica(22).MostrespondentsarelocatedinEuropeandCentralAsia(59%),Sub-SaharanAfrica(14%),andtheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(9%).

Approximately40%ofrespondentsarefromthemanufacturingsector,10%fromrealestate,rental,andbusinessactivities,and8%fromretailandwholesaletrade.

Respondentsbyregion,numberand%total

18;4%6;1%

19;4%

19;4%

Europe&CentralAsia

Sub-SaharanAfrica

MiddleEast&NorthAfrica

24;5%

#N/A

40;9%

LatinAmerica&Caribbean

262;59%

SouthAsia

60;14%

EastAsia&Pacific

NorthAmerica

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|5

2Aprilannouncement:newU.S.tariffssparkconcern

•On2April2025,theU.S.administrationannouncedanewroundoftariffmeasurestargetingabroadrangeofgoodsimports.Theseactions,aimedataddressingperceivedtrade

imbalancesandunfairpracticesbycertaintradingpartnersaswellasabaseline10%tariff,sparkedimmediatereactionsfrombusinessesglobally.

•60%ofrespondentsviewthenewU.S.tariffmeasuresnegatively.Oftherespondentswho

viewedthenewtariffmeasuresnegatively,44%arefromthemanufacturingsectorand10%arefromthetransportsector.

•Threesectorsappearparticularlyvulnerabletothelatesttariffannouncements:

accommodationandfoodservices,retailandwholesaletrade,andagricultureandfishing.

Morethan50%ofrespondentsinthesesectorsbelievetheimpactwillbesignificantlynegative.

•TheimpactoftheU.S.announcementwasfeltalmostuniformlyacrossbusinesses,regardlessoftheirsize.

•Thenegativeimpactisfeltacrossallregions,withatleast50%ofrespondentsineachregion

reportingnegativeeffects.However,businessesinEastAsiareportbeingparticularlyaffectedbynewU.S.tariffmeasures,with50%ofrespondentsintheseregionsconsideringtheimpact

significantlynegative.BusinessesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricareportbeinglessexposedtothenewtariffannouncements,withalmost30%ofrespondentsinthisregionindicatingtheimpactwouldbeneutral.Sub-Saharanbusinessesarethemostuncertain,withnearly30%of

respondentsstatingitistoosoontotell.

Howdothe2Apriltariffannouncements

impactyourbusinessoperations?,%oftotal

Somewhatnegativeimpact

Significantnegativeimpact

Toosoontotell

Noimpact

Somewhatpositiveimpact

Significantpositiveimpact

N/A

25%

20%

12%

6%

2%

1%

35%

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|6

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Howdothe2Apriltariffannouncementsimpactyourbusinessoperations?,byregion

EastAsia&

Pacific

Europe&

CentralAsia

Latin

America&

Caribbean

MiddleEast

&North

Africa

North

America

SouthAsiaSub-SaharanAfrica

Significantnegativeimpact

Somewhatnegativeimpact

Toosoontotell

Somewhatpositiveimpact

Significantpositiveimpact

Noimpact

Howdothe2Apriltariffannouncements

impactyourbusinessoperations?,byenterprisesize

Micro

Small

Medium

Large

0%20%40%60%80%100%

N/A

Significantpositiveimpact

Somewhatpositiveimpact

Noimpact

Toosoontotell

Significantnegativeimpact

Somewhatnegativeimpact

Howdothe2Apriltariffannouncementsimpactyourbusinessoperations?,bysector

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|7

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Manufacturing

Realestate,rentalandbusiness

activities

Retailorwholesaletrade

Transportandstorage

Financialservices

Informationandcommunications

technologies

Other

Construction

Personalandotherconsumerservices

Miningorextractiveactivities

Accommodationandfoodservices

Retailandwholesaletrade

Agricultureandfishing

Supplyofelectricity,waterand

sanitation

(blank)

N/A

Noimpact

Significantpositiveimpact

Somewhat

Significant

positiveimpactnegativeimpact

Toosoontotell

Somewhatnegativeimpact

Biggestconcernsrelatedtothenewtariffmeasures

•Thetopthreeconcernsassociatedwiththenewtariffmeasuresareincreasedcosts(64%of

respondents),uncertaintyaffectingplanning(47%),andsupplychaindisruptions(45%).In

general,largebusinesses,whicharemoreintegratedintointernationalsupplychains,aremoreconcerned,withover50%ofthemmentioningatleastoneofthepreviouslycitedconcerns.

•Aboutfouroutoftenrespondentsalsoexpressedconcernsaboutpotentialtraderetaliation.

Largebusinessesaremoreacutelyconcernedaboutretaliatoryactionsfromtradepartners,with50%ofthemcitingthisfear.Incomparison,only25-35%ofsmallerbusinessessharethisconcern.

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|8

Whatareyourbiggestconcernsrelatedtothenewtariffmeasures?,in%oftotal

Increasedcosts

Uncertaintyaffectingplanning

Supplychaindisruptions

Riskofretaliatorytradeactions

Complianceoradministrativeburden

Nomajorconcern

Others

47%

45%

38%

23%

9%

8%

64%

Outlookforthenext6–12months

•Threeintenrespondentsreportamorepessimisticoutlook,whilefouroutoftenareapproachingthenext6-12monthswithincreasedcaution.

•Twosectorsappearparticularlypessimisticafterthelatesttariffannouncements:

accommodationandfoodservices,andretailandwholesaletrade.

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Whatareyourbiggestconcernsrelatedtothenewtariffmeasures?,byenterprisesizeand%total

MicroSmallMediumLarge

IncreasedcostsUncertaintyaffectingplanning

SupplychaindisruptionsRiskofretaliatorytradeactions

ComplianceoradministrativeburdenNomajorconcern

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|9

Howhavetheannouncementsaffectedyourbusinessoutlookforthenext6–12months?,in%oftotal

Moreoptimistic;3%

N/A;1%

Slightlymoreoptimistic;8%

Slightlymorecautious;42%

Nochange;15%

Morepessimistic;32%

April2025|ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs|10

Pleaseciteas:

ICC(2025),ICCPulseSurvey2025:BusinessreactionstonewU.S.tariffs,

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publications/policies-reports/icc-pulse-survey-2025-business-reactions-to-new-u-s-tariffs/

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