房地产 -澳大利亚办公楼指标 -2025 年第三季度 Australian Office Indicators - Q3 2025

knight

Frank

knightfrank.com.au/research

keyleasingandcapitalmarketsmetricsacrosstheAustralianofficemarketQ32025

Tighteningyieldinsydneysignalsanimprovingmarket

SYDNEYCBDYIELDSTIGHTEN

AverageprimeyieldstightenedinthesydneycBDforthefirsttimesince

2021,highlightingtheunderlying

strengthforbest-in-classassetsintheCBD.Thiswasdrivenbya25bps

tighteningofyieldsinthecoretoan

averageof5.75%.Tighteningyields

reflectbothimprovedbuyerdemandasthemarketoutlookimproves,and

broaderawarenessoftighteningof

supplyatthetop-endoftheleasing

market.ownersarebeginningtosee

earlysignsofcapitalgrowthandare

likelyholdingoffsalesuntilvaluationsrecoverfromtheircyclicallows.

IMPROVINGRENTALPERFORMANCE

Rentalperformancecontinuestodifferbylocationbutissteadilyimproving

overallwithrisingleasingdemand.NeteffectiverentsinBrisbanecontinuedtogrowinQ32025,tobeupby14.9%overtheyear.Adelaidehasalsoseenastrongincreaseinrents,withneteffective

rentsrisingagaininQ3be13.7%higherovertheyear.Rentgrowthhasalso

acceleratedinsydneyandMelbourneinQ3,drivenbyhighqualitycore

assets.

LOCATIONDRIVINGRENTGROWTH

Rentalperformanceinsydneyand

Melbourneisbeingdrivenbythebestlocatedprecincts.Thisreflectsthe

shiftingpatternoftenantdemand

towardshigherqualityassetsto

encourageworkersbackintooffices.Insydney,rentgrowthisbeingdrivenbythecoreandthishasstartedtoripple

outtowardssurroundingprecinctssuchasthemidtown.similarly,strongrentalperformanceinMelbournecBD'seastisstartingtospreadtoadjacentprecincts.

Lookingahead,robustdemandandadwindlingsupplypipelineisexpectedtosupportstrongprimerentalgrowthoverthecomingyears.

primeofficeyieldstighteninsydneycBDprimeofficeyieldsbycBD(%)

sydney(core)MelbourneBrisbane

perthAdelaideNational(weighted)

source:knightFrankResearch

FastestcBDrentalgrowthinBrisbane

Annualnetfacerentalgrowth&neteffectiverentalgrowth(%)

uNetfacerentalgrowthuNeteffectiverentalgrowth

source:knightFrankResearch

Rentgrowthstrongestinfavouredprecincts

Netfacerenalgrowthvsneteffectiverentalgrowth(%y/y)

uNetfacerentalgrowthuNeteffectiverentalgrowth

12%

4%

sydney

Melbourne

source:knightFrankResearch

-8%

knightFrank

primemarketaveragesQ32025

Netfacerent

($/sqm)

Growth(q/q,%)

Growth(y/y,%)

Incentives

(%)

Net

effective

rent($/sqm)

Growth(q/q,%)

Growth(y/y,%)

yield(%)

overall

vacancy

(H1,PCA,%)

CBDS

sydney

1,371

2.1

3.8

36.1(g)

785

1.5

4.2

5.75

Melbourne

755

2.8

47.7(n)

402

2.7

4.5

6.73

Brisbane

859

2.0

37.9(g)

455

3.7

14.9

7.25

perth

731

0.3

47.0(n)

387

3.0

7.58

Adelaide

568

33.9(g)

324

13.7

canberra

462

28.1(g)

298

suburban

Northsydney

39.5(g)

503

1.4

7.42

21.7

stLeonards

41.0(g)

335

-5.4

8.13

29.7

chatswood

40.0(g)

328

20.2

Macquariepark

480

3.2

40.0(g)

288

22.2

parramatta

575

38.4(n)

355

southbank

692

48.0(n)

360

-4.1

692

stkildaRoad

525

50.0(n)

263

525

Recenttransactions

property

price(A$m)

size

(NLA

sqm)

purchaser

vendor

coremarket

yield(%)

WALE

CBD

sydney

75Elizabethst

6,104

sydneycatholicArchdiocese

kingold

5.4

2.3

Melbourne

180Flindersst

21,000

PAG

Dexus

6.5

5.0

Melbourne

357collinsst

c195.3

32,000

Harrystamoulis

Frasers

c7.3

Melbourne

50Queenst

40.1

8,650

upproperty

Fidinam

c7.0

Brisbane

63Georgest(50%)

52.0

10,586

Marquetteproperty

QIC

8.72

Adelaide

63piriest

11,500

centennial

Raptis

8.65

canberra

4Mortst

5,422

AEGIS

GladiatorMEIF

8.53

*Includesthesaleofanannexedcarpark

knightFrank

TransactionactivityremainssubduedinQ3,butisexpectedtoriseinQ4

•CBDofficeinvestmentactivityroseto$0.4billionofclosedtransactionsinQ32025.ActivitywasdrivenbyMelbourne,withthe

contract/duediligenceandseveralotherassetsareintheprocessofmarketingcampaignswhichpointstoastrongactivityinQ4.

collinsstinMelbourne.

•AverageprimeyieldstightenedinthesydneycBDforthefirsttimesince2021,highlightingtheunderlyingstrengthforbest-in-

classcBDassets.Thiswasdrivenbya25bpstighteningofyieldsinthecoretoanaverageof5.75%.Averageprimeyieldswereonce

•whilesecondaryassetshavegenerallyexperiencedlargerwrite-downsthanprimeassets,locationisalsoacriticalinfluenceonpricing,andsecondaryassetsinfavouredlocations-notablysydney'scorecBDprecinct-continuetotradewell.

•Reducedborrowingcosts,andincreasinginvestorconfidencethatassetvaluationshavestabilised,willfostergreaterconfidence

driveaprogressivepickupindealmomentumacrossallcitiesovertheremainderof2025.Inprecinctsleadingtherebound,includingthesydneycBDcore,risingconfidenceinthemarketoutlookhasreducedthenumberofhighqualityassetsbeing

rfrom

primeofficeyieldstighteninsydneycBDprimeofficeyieldsbycBD(%)

sydney(core)Melbourne

Brisbaneperth

AdelaideNational(weighted)

source:knightFrankResearch

theircyclicallows.

AustraliancBDofficeinvestmentpausesInvestmentvolumesbycity(AUDbillions)

usydneyaMelbourneuBrisbaneuperthUAdelaidecanberra

source:knightFrankResearch,RCA

Australianborrowingcostshavestabilisedyieldbyswapduration

2yearswap5yearswap

10yearbondcashRate

source:knightFrankResearch,Macrobond

cross-bordercapitaldrivingtransactions

shareofinvestmentvolumesbybuyertype,Q1Q32025(%)

source:knightFrankResearch,RCA

knightFrank

DemandstrongestforcBDassetswithattractiveinternal&externalamenity

•InH12025therewaspositivenetabsorptionof63,738sqmacrosstheAustraliancBDmarkets,whichtookyearlyabsorptionfor

thepast12monthsto113,049sqmthestrongestnetabsorptionsince1H2022.ThecontinuedgrowthinnetabsorptionhighlightstheimprovedsentimentthroughoutmostcBDmarkets.

•Risingsentimentreflectsagradualimprovementintenantdemandnationally,withallcapitalcitiesrecordingpositiveabsorption

positivenetabsorptioninH1forthefirsttimesinceH12022.Mostmajortenantsarenowconsideredtohavecompletedtheirprocessofportfoliooptimisation,sodownsizingisbecominglessofaninfluenceonthemarket.

•The'bestandtherest'thematiccontinuestoprevail,withafocusonhighquality,well-locatedpremisesthathavethebestamenityforemployees,ifnotonthedoorstep,thenimmediatelyadjacentintheprecinct.

•Demandfornewlybuiltproductremainshighnationallyasoccupiersarestillfocusedondeliveringnewworkplaceswhichwillencouragehighproductivity,collaboration,employeewellbeingandarewell-credentialledwithhighESGratings.

•Thecleardivergenceinperformancebylocationalsopersists,particularlyinsydneyandMelbournewherethecorecBDprecincts

Demandfavourshighergradeofficespace

Totalabsorptionsince2021bygradeandmarket('o00sqm)

upremiumuAgradeusecondary

source:knightFrankResearch,PCA

MidtownandMelbourne'SNorthEasternandcivicprecincts.CBDnetabsorptionreturnstogrowth

12monthsnetabsorption('o00sqm),vacancyrate(%)

Netabsorption(LHS)——vacancyrate(RHS)

source:knightFrankResearch,PCA

sydneycBDcoreleadstherebound

Netabsorptionin12monthstoJul25('o00sqm)

60

40

20

0

-20

sydney

Melbourne

source:knightFrankResearch,PCA

primeoccupiedstockchange

changeinprimeoccupiedstock,Jul-23toJul-25(%)

%changeAverage

source:knightFrankResearch,PCA

knightFrank

CBDofficemarketsareyettoturnthecorner,butthepipelineisthinningbeyond2025

•AcrosstheAustraliancBD,thevacancyrateroseby0.6%to14.3%inH12025.

•canberraandBrisbanehavethelowestvacancyratesamongstthecapitalcitiesat10.7%respectively,whilstMelbourneandpertharecurrentlythehighestrateat17.9%and17.0%,respectively.AdelaidehasseenthestrongestimprovementincBDvacancyoverthepastyearwithvacancyfalling2.5%to15.0%

•Reflectingthetrendoftenantdemandinrecentyears,vacancyratesarelowerinthemostfavouredcBDprecincts,mostnotablysydney'scoreandMelbourne'SEasterncore.

•MajormetromarketsnationallyhavelaggedthecBDmarketswiththeaveragevacancyratesacrossmetromarketsat17.3%.

•overthenextthreeyears,thedevelopmentpipelineinmajorcBDsisforecasttodeliverc970,000sqmofnewsupply,incontrasttothelastthreeyearswherenewsupplyhastotalledover1.17millionsqm.

•Thepipelinelooksparticularlythininsydney,Brisbaneandperth.Developersfacemultiplepressuresincludinghigh

vacancyratesmixedacrossmarketsTotalvacancybygrade,Jul25(%)

UTotaluprime

source:knightFrankResearch,PCA

CBDvacancyriseswhilenon-CBDstabilisesTotalvacancyrate(%)

——AustraliacBDAustralianon-CBD

25%

source:knightFrankResearch,PCA

primecBDofficesupplytightening

Historicandforecastcompletionsbycity('o00sqm)

MelbournecBD

source:knightFrankResearch

knightFrank

positiverentalgrowthacrossAustralia,withBrisbaneandAdelaideoutperforming

•AverageprimenetfacerentscontinuedtoriseinQ3,withquarterlygrowthledbyMelbourne(2.8%),followedbysydney(2.1%),Brisbane(2.0%),andAdelaide(0.4%).

•overthepastyear,Brisbanehasledthewaywithanexceptionallystrong14.9%increaseinprimeeffectiverents,whileAdelaidehasexperienced13.7%growth.GrowthhasbeenmoresubduedinMelbourne(4.5%),sydney(4.2%)andperth(3.0%).

•IncentivesremainedstableacrossmostcapitalcitiesinQ3.Brisbanewastheexception,whereincentivescontinuedtoslowlyfall,reaching38%(gross)inQ3.

•withoccupierdemandweightedtowardscorecBDlocations,thecoreprecinctsinsydneycBDandtheEasterninMelbourneCBDhaveout-performedwith7.4%and11.4%neteffectiverentgrowthoverthepastyear.

•Lookingforward,sustaineddemandanddeclininglevelsofnewdevelopmentparticularlynewpremiumbuildingswillaidprimerentalgrowthandlowervacancyratesoverthemediumterm.Economicrentsremainwell-aboveexpectedmarketrents,makingtheconstructionofnewofficetowerslargelyunviable.

FastestcBDrentalgrowthinBrisbane

Annualnetfacerentalgrowth&neteffectiverentalgrowth(%)

uNetfacerentalgrowthaNeteffectiverentalgrowth

source:knightFrankResearch

primeincentivesstabilise

primeincentives,%

Melbourne(n)

perth(n)

canberra(g)

sydney(g)Brisbane(g)Adelaide(g)

source:knightFrankResearch

Rentgrowthstrongestinfavouredprecincts

Netfacerenalgrowthvsneteffectiverentalgrowth(%y/y)

uNetfacerentalgrowthaNeteffectiverentalgrowth

source:knightFrankResearch

Rentgrowthdrivenbythecore

Annualneteffectiverentgrowthbyprimebuilding(%)

uothersydneycBDUSydneycBD-core

uotherMelbournecBDUMelbournecBD-East

source:knightFrankResearch

knightFrank

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BenBurston

chiefEconomist

+61290366756

Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com

AndreaRoberts

officeLeasing

+61290366703

Andrea.Roberts@au.knightfrank.com

Alcarpenter

valuations

+61290366662

AI.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com

AlistairRead

seniorEconomist

+61450831899

Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com

Robsewell

capitalMarkets

+61290366847

Rob.sewell@au.knightfrank.com

LisaAtkins

AssetMa