2025年新研究探讨绿色金融作为区域转型的催化剂报告-

BridgingtheGreenGap:

GreenFinanceasaCatalystfortheGreenTransition

CTTNResearchGrantsProgram2025

Preparedby

YunaDi

YueDou

AmjadAhmedMohammedSaif

FurtherInformation

1

CTTNResearchGrantsProgram2025

BridgingtheGreenGap:GreenFinanceasaCatalystfortheGreenTransition

YunaDi

YueDou

AmjadAhmedMohammedSaif

February2026

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ExecutiveSummary

ThisreportexaminesthegrowingimportanceofgreenfinanceasacatalystforthegreentransitionintheCentralAsiaRegionalEconomicCooperation(CAREC)countries,whereeconomicdevelopmenthastraditionallyreliedonfossilfuelsandcarbon-intensiveinfrastructure.Ithighlightstheincreasingurgencyofshiftingtowardlow-carbon,climate-resilientdevelopmentamidrisingclimaterisks,energyinsecurity,andglobaldecarbonizationcommitments.Thereportidentifiessignificantdisparitiesingreenfinancereadinessandimplementationacrosstheregion.CountriessuchasKazakhstan,Uzbekistan,andChinahavemadenotableprogressinestablishinggreenbondmarkets,renewableenergytargets,andnationaltaxonomies,whereasothers,includingAfghanistan,Turkmenistan,andTajikistancontinuetofaceinstitutional,regulatory,andfinancialconstraints.Usinganentropy-basedindex,thereportquantitativelyassesseseachcountry’sperformanceinmobilizinganddeployinggreenfinance.ItfindsthatwhileexternalfundingfromMultilateralDevelopmentBanks—suchastheAsianDevelopmentBank,EuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment,andIslamicDevelopmentBank—hasplayedavitalrolethroughconcessionalloans,blendedfinance,andcapacity-buildinginitiatives,theoverallscaleofinvestmentremainsinsufficientrelativetoregionalneeds,whichareestimatedtoexceedUSD400billionby2030.ThereportalsoemphasizestheimportanceofPublic-PrivatePartnershipsindeliveringgreeninfrastructure.SuccessfulexamplesinUzbekistanandAzerbaijandemonstratehowtransparenttenderingprocesses,de-riskinginstruments,andinternationalsupportcanattractprivateinvestmentincleanenergyandsustainabletransport.Policyrecommendationsincludedevelopingclearnationalgreenfinancestrategies,expandinggreentaxonomies,strengtheningdomesticcapitalmarkets,andenhancingregionalcooperationplatformssuchastheCARECGreenEnergyAlliance.Together,thesemeasuresareessentialforbridgingthegreenfinancegapandensuringaninclusive,just,andsustainabletransitionacrosstheCARECregion.

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1.Introduction

1.1Backgroundandobjective

Overthepastfewdecades,theworldhaswitnessedunprecedentedeconomicgrowth,withglobalGDPalmosttriplingsince1990(WorldBank,2023).However,thisrapideconomicdevelopmenthascomeatthecostofenvironmentaldegradationandresourceexhaustion.Forexample,sincethe1990s,globalcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustionhaveincreasedfrom21,328milliontonsin1990to37,400milliontonsin2024(IEA,2025).Thistrendhasledtosevereconsequences,includingglobalwarming,morefrequentextremeweatherevents,andecologicalimbalance.

Currently,theglobaleconomicdevelopmentmodelremainshighlyreliantonahigh-carbonenergysystems,withasignificantpositivecorrelationbetweeneconomicgrowthandcarbonemissions.Althoughsomedevelopedcountrieshaveachievedpartialdecouplingthroughtechnologicalupgradingandindustrialtransformation,developingcountries—constrainedbytheirstageofindustrializationandgrowingenergydemand—continuetoexperiencesustainedincreasesintotalcarbonemissions.

Theinternationalcommunityhasreachedbroadconsensusontheneedtobalanceeconomicgrowthwithemissionreductiongoals.However,significantdifferencesremainintermsofspecificimplementationpathways.Developedcountriesgenerallyadvocatepromotingglobalemissionreductionthroughtechnologytransferandfinancialsupport,whiledevelopingcountriesemphasizetheprincipleof"commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities"andcallforfairermechanismsforallocatingcarbonemissionrights.

Asemergingeconomies,thecountriesparticipatingintheCentralAsiaRegionalEconomicCooperation(CAREC)program—includingKazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Azerbaijan,andothers—haveachievedrelativelystableGDPgrowthoverthepastfewdecades(seeFigure1.1).However,duetotheirhighdependenceonfossilfuels,lowenergysystemefficiency,andagingindustrialinfrastructure,thesecountriesgenerallyexhibithighcarbonemissionintensity,withCO₂emissionsperunitofGDPrankingamongthehighestglobally.

Whilemaintainingeconomicgrowth,CARECmemberstatesfaceanurgentneedtopromotelow-carbontransformationtoaddressglobalclimatechallenges.Byoptimizingenergystructures,upgradingindustrialtechnologies,andstrengtheningpolicyframeworks,these

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countriescanpursuesustainabledevelopmentwhilereducingcarbonemissions.Lookingahead,strengtheningregionalcooperationandlearningfrominternationalexperienceswillbeimportantdriversoflow-carbondevelopmentintheCARECregion.

Figure1.1GDPGrowth(%)ofCARECCountries

DataSource:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators.

/source/world-

development-indicators#

Toaddressglobalclimatechange,thetransitiontoalow-carbonandenvironmentallysustainableeconomy(i.e.,thegreentransition)hasbecomeaninevitableglobaltrend.However,thecurrentgreentransitionprocessstillfacesnumerousstructuralobstaclesthaturgentlyrequiresystemicreformsandresourceinputs.Inpractice,thegreentransitioninvolvesfundamentaltransformationsinkeysectorssuchasenergy,industry,transportation,andagriculture.Itscoreobjectivesincludereducinggreenhousegasemissions,improvingresource-useefficiency,andpromotingtheadoptionofrenewableenergy.

Technologicalupgradingandinfrastructuremodernizationacrossthesesectorsrequiresubstantialfinancialsupport.Forexample,toaccommodatethegrid-integrationneedsofvariablerenewableenergysourcessuchassolarandwindpower,traditionalelectricitygridsmustundergolarge-scalemodernization,requiringbillionsofdollarsininvestment.Similarly,industrialdecarbonization,electrificationofpublictransportation,andenergy-efficientbuildingretrofitsrequirelong-termandstablefinancing.AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA,2021),achievingnet-zeroemissionsby2050willrequireglobalannualinvestmentincleanenergytoincreasefromUSD1.2trillionin2020tomorethanUSD4trillionin2030.

However,CARECmembercountriesareconstrainedbylimitedfiscalcapacityandunderdevelopedgreencapitalmarkets,makingitdifficulttomobilizesuchlarge-scalefunding.

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Withouttargetedgreenfinancialinstruments,thegreentransitionintheCARECregionmayfallshortofnationalcommitmentsandinternationalclimategoals.

Inthecontextoftheglobalgreentransition,establishingsoundgreenfinancialmechanismsisessentialforCARECcountriestoachievesustainabledevelopment.GreenfinancewasoriginallydefinedbytheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeFinanceInitiative(UNEPFI,2016)asfinancialinvestmentsdirectedtowardsustainabledevelopmentprojectsandinitiatives.Inrecentyears,scholarshaveexpandedthisdefinitiontoencompassarangeoffinancialinstruments,institutionalmechanisms,andpolicyframeworksthatallocatecapitaltoactivitieswithmeasurableenvironmentalbenefits,suchasemissionreduction,energyefficiencyimprovement,andbiodiversityprotection(Zhangetal.,2022a).

Keygreenfinanceinstrumentsincludeenvironmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)investmentframeworks,sustainability-linkedloans,greenbonds,climatefunds,andgreencredit.Previousstudieshavealsoemphasizedtheroleofgreenfinanceinaddressingfundinggapsforgreentechnologies,internalizingenvironmentalrisks,andguidingcapitalflowstowarddevelopmentpathwaysconsistentwithclimatemitigationobjectives(Campiglio,2016;Chenetetal.,2021).

However,shapedbylong-standingtraditionaldevelopmentmodelsandpolicyframeworks,thedesignandimplementationofgreenfinancesystemsinCARECcountriesexhibitstructuralweaknessesthatareinconsistentwithsustainabledevelopmentgoals.Policyfragmentationremainsamajorchallenge,withmanygovernmentsintroducingisolatedmeasuresinspecificareas(e.g.,renewableenergy)withoutestablishingcomprehensiveframeworkscoveringenvironmentalriskassessment,informationdisclosure,andincentivemechanisms.Thelackofcoherenttop-leveldesignhaslimitedpolicycoordinationandreducedoveralleffectiveness.

AccordingtoWorldBankreports,only30%offinancialinstitutionsinCentralAsiaincorporateenvironmentalfactorsintocreditdecision-making,reflectingsignificantimplementationgaps.Inaddition,AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)datashowthatgreenbondissuanceintheCARECregionaccountsforonly0.8%oftheglobalmarketandisconcentratedinafewcountries,particularlyKazakhstan.Althoughgreencreditdominatesregionalgreenfinancing(approximately72%ofthetotal),maturitymismatchespersist,withapproximately85%ofgreenloanshavingmaturitiesoflessthanfiveyears,limitingtheirsuitabilityforlong-term

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infrastructureprojects.Thesestructuraldeficiencieshaveseverelyconstrainedthelarge-scaledevelopmentofgreenindustriesintheregion.

Overall,greenfinanceremainsatanearlystageofdevelopmentinCARECcountries.Althoughpolicymakersincreasinglyrecognizeitspotential,practicalimplementationremainslimitedduetounderdevelopedcapitalmarkets,fragmentedregulatorysystems,andinsufficientinstitutionalcapacity.Manyfinancialinstitutionslackthetechnicalexpertiseneededtoassessenvironmentalrisksandevaluategreenprojects.Moreover,theabsenceofstandardizedtaxonomies,robustdisclosureframeworks,andeffectiveregionalcoordinationfurtherhampersmarketdevelopment.

Therefore,examiningtherelationshipbetweengreenfinanceandgreentransformationisnotonlyofpracticalrelevancebutalsoessentialforformulatingeffectivepolicies,investmentstrategies,andinternationalcooperationmechanisms.

Figure1.2.Totalapprovedfinancingbycountryandclimateandsustainabledevelopmentsector(USDmillion)

Approvedfinancingforclimateand

sustainabledevelopmentsector(USD

mln)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

DataSource:EurasianFundforStabilizationandDevelopment

/

Figure1.2illustratesthedistributionofapprovedfinancing(inUSDmillions)acrossCentralandWestAsiancountries,highlightingallocationstoclimateandsustainabledevelopmentsectors.Pakistanemergesasthelargestrecipient,withfundingapproachingUSD2,000million,likelyreflectingitslargepopulation,highclimatevulnerability,andsubstantialinfrastructureneeds.UzbekistanandMongoliafollow,withapproximatelyUSD900millionandUSD750million,respectively,indicatingactiveenergytransitioneffortsandongoinginstitutional

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reforms.GeorgiaandBelarusreceivedmoderatelevelsoffinancing,rangingbetweenUSD600and700million,whileKazakhstan,theKyrgyzRepublic,Tajikistan,andArmeniasecuredmoremodestamountsofapproximatelyUSD250–450million.Incontrast,Azerbaijan,Russia,andTurkmenistanreceivedlessthanUSD150million,possiblyduetolimitedprojectpipelines,institutionalbarriers,orlowerengagementinclimate-relatedfinancingmechanisms.

ThisreportaimstoexaminetheroleofgreenfinanceinpromotingthegreentransitioninCARECcountries.Theremainderofthereportisorganizedasfollows:

I.GreentransitionstrategiesinCARECcountries.ThissectionreviewsthecurrentstatusofgreentransitionstrategiesinCARECcountries,focusingonenergyconsumptionstructuresandpolicytrendsrelatedtodecarbonization.Itidentifiesthemajorchallengesfacedbythesecountriesinpursuinglow-carbondevelopment.

II.GreenfinancedevelopmentinCARECcountries.Thissectionprovidesadetailedanalysisofgreenfinancepoliciesandfinancialinstrumentsintheregion.Itevaluatestheoverallpolicyframework,theavailabilityanduseofgreenfinanceinstruments(e.g.,greenbonds,creditlines,andfunds),andexistinggovernanceandregulatorysupportmechanisms.

III.Theroleofgreenfinanceinsupportingthegreentransition.ThiscoresectionexamineshowgreenfinancecurrentlyinfluencesgreentransformationeffortsinCARECcountries.Itassessestheimpactofgreenfinanceflowsoncleanenergyinvestment,industrialmodernization,andlow-carboninnovation,andidentifieskeybarrierslimitingtheeffectivenessofgreenfinanceinterventions.

IV.Policyrecommendationsandregionalcooperationstrategies.Basedontheempiricalfindings,thissectionproposespracticalpolicyrecommendationstostrengthentheuseofgreenfinanceinstrumentsinaddressinggreentransformationchallengesinCARECcountries.Italsopresentsselectedcasestudiesfromwithinandoutsidetheregiontoillustratebestpracticesingreenfinanceandclimatecooperation,providinginsightsforenhancingregionalclimate-relatedfinancialintegration.

Basedonthesefindings,thereportseekstosupportCARECpolicymakers,developmentinstitutions,andfinancialactorsindesigningmoreeffectivestrategiestobalanceeconomicdevelopmentwithenvironmentalsustainability.

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1.2Methodology

ThisreportemploystheImprovedEntropyMethod(IEM)toassessthecomprehensivelevelofgreenfinancedevelopmentinChina.First,therawdataarestandardized.Forpositiveindicators,wherehighervaluesindicatebetterperformance,standardizationisperformedbysubtractingtheminimumvalueanddividingbytherange.Fornegativeindicators,theprocedureisreversedtoreflectthatlowervaluesrepresentbetterperformance.

Toensurethatallstandardizedvaluesarepositiveandtoavoidlogarithmicerrors,asmallconstant(θ=0.0001)isaddedtoeachvalue.Theadjustedvaluesarethenconvertedintoproportions(Pij),whichreflecttherelativeperformanceofeachobservationunderagivenindicator.

Next,theentropyvalue(Dj)ofeachindicatoriscalculated.Dimeasurestheinformationutilityofeachindictor:lowerentropyvaluesindicategreatervariabilityandhigherinformationcontent.Entropyredundancy(Gj)isthencomputedas1minustheentropyvalue,representingtherelativeimportanceofeachindicator.Theweight(wj)ofeachindicatoriscalculatedbynormalizingGj.

Finally,thecomprehensivegreenfinanceindex(Uj)iscalculatedastheweightedsumofallstandardizedindicators,reflectingtheoveralllevelofgreenfinancedevelopmentinChina.

2.GreentransitionstrategiesinCARECcountries

TheCARECregioncomprisesAfghanistan,Azerbaijan,China,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Mongolia,Pakistan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,andUzbekistan.Together,thesecountriesformavast,resource-richcorridorthatplaysavitalroleinregionalenergyproduction,distribution,andtrade.Severalcountries,includingKazakhstan,Turkmenistan,andAzerbaijan,possessextensivefossilfuelreserves,whileothers,notablyTajikistanandKyrgyzstan,havesignificanthydropowerpotential.Asoneoftheworld’slargestenergyconsumers,Chinaisalsoagloballeaderinrenewableenergytechnologydevelopment.

Thesecharacteristicshaveresultedinacomplexanddiverseregionalenergylandscape.CARECcountriesdiffersignificantlyintermsofenergysupply,demandpatterns,infrastructuredevelopment,andrenewableenergypolicyorientations.

ToassessthesustainabilityandresilienceofenergysystemsinCARECcountries,itisessentialtoinvestigatebothenergycomposition(supply)andenergyconsumptionstructures.These

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dimensionsareundergoingrapidchangeduetopopulationgrowth,technologicaladvancement,regionalcooperation,economictransformation,andinternationalclimatecommitments.

2.1EnergyconsumptionstructureofCARECcountries

2.1.1PrimaryEnergySupplyTrendsinCARECCountries

Between2020and2030,totalprimaryenergysupplyinCARECcountriesisprojectedtogrowsignificantly,althoughthepaceofgrowthvariesacrossscenariosandregions.ExcludingthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC),CARECmembercountriesareexpectedtoexperienceaveragegrowthofapproximately30%,risingfrom280milliontonsofoilequivalent(toe)in2020tobetween334and402milliontoeby2030.

UndertheGreenGrowthscenario,whichemphasizesaggressiveenergyefficiencymeasures,annualgrowthisconstrainedtoapproximately1.9%.Incontrast,theGovernmentCommitmentsandBusiness-as-Usual(BAU)scenariosprojecthigherannualgrowthratesof2.4%and3.5%,respectively.Naturalgasisexpectedtodominatetheenergymixacrossallscenarios,increasingitsshareto43%–48%by2030,drivenbyitswidespreaduseinpowergenerationandindustrialandresidentialconsumption.

Meanwhile,theshareofrenewableandnuclearenergysourcesisprojectedtotripleundertheGovernmentCommitmentsscenario.WhenthePRCisincluded,totalprimaryenergysupplyintheCARECregionisforecasttoincreasebyapproximately12%,reaching3,859–4,086milliontoeby2030,dependingonthescenario.Althoughcoalwillremainamajorenergysource,itsshareisexpectedtodeclineto36%–44%,reflectingagradualshifttowardcleaneralternatives.

Renewableandnuclearenergyareanticipatedtoincreasefrom15%oftheprimaryenergymixin2020tobetween22%and33%by2030.Despitechangesinenergysupplyandcomposition,cumulativeeconomicgrowthacrosstheCARECregion,includingthePRC,isexpectedtoremainrobust,withGDPgrowthaveraging3.3%in2020andpotentiallyreaching8.5%annuallyunderoptimisticscenariosthrough2030.

2.1.2FinalEnergyDemandbyFuelinCARECCountries

FinalenergydemandinCARECcountriesisprojectedtogrowsubstantiallyby2030,withnotableregionalandscenario-specificvariations.ExcludingthePRC,demandisexpectedto

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risebyapproximately32%,from204milliontoein2020tobetween254and290milliontoe,dependingontheextentofenergyefficiencyimplementation.

Electricityandnaturalgasareanticipatedtoexperiencethefastestgrowth,particularlyintheresidentialandindustrialsectors.WhilecoalandoilsharesremainrelativelystableundertheBAUscenario,theyareprojectedtodeclineunderboththeGovernmentCommitmentsandGreenGrowthscenarios,mostmarkedlyundertheGreenGrowthscenario,wherecoal’ssharefallsfrom10%to5%.Inabsoluteterms,coalconsumptioncontinuestoincreaseunderBAUduetooveralldemandgrowthbutdeclinesundertheGreenGrowthscenarioasnaturalgassubstitutesforcoal.

IncludingthePRC,finalenergydemandintheCARECregionisexpectedtoincreasebyapproximately10%,reaching2.4–2.7billiontoeby2030.Naturalgasisforecastedtoexpandmostrapidly,growingat3%–4%annuallyandcapturinga10%–13%shareoffinaldemand.Electricity’ssharealsoincreasesacrossallscenarios,whileoildemandremainsstableorgrowsmoderatelyduetocontinuedtransportationneeds.Coalconsumptionisexpectedtodeclineinallscenarios,drivenprimarilybythePRC’sstrategiceffortstolimititsusedespiteongoingrelianceoncoalforpowergeneration.

2.1.3FinalEnergyDemandbySectorinCARECCountries

Fromasectoralperspective,thetransportsectorisprojectedtobethefastest-growingenergyconsumerinCARECcountriesexcludingthePRC,withdemandincreasingatacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of3%–4%by2030,dependingonthescenario.

Incontrast,energydemandintheresidentialandindustrialsectorsisanticipatedtogrowmoremoderately,atapproximately2%–3%annually,reflectingtheimpactoftargetedenergyefficiencymeasures.WhenthePRCisincluded,thetransportandresidentialsectorsremaintheprimarydriversofenergydemandgrowth,withprojectedCAGRsof2%–3%and2%–4%,respectively,by2030.

2.2GreentransitiontrendsofCARECcountries

EnergypoliciesanddevelopmentplansofCARECcountriesarecloselylinkedtothegreentransitionprocess.Inpractice,mostofthesecountriesremainhighlydependentonfossilfuelstomeettheirenergyneeds.Atthesametime,increasingclimate-relatedpressuresareacceleratingeffortstoexpandrenewableenergyadoption.Althoughprogresstowardgreen

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transitionvariesacrosscountries,theregionasawholeismovinggraduallytowardacleanerenergysystem.Accordingly,thissectionexploresthemaintrends,opportunities,andchallengesfacingtheCARECregioninitsgreentransition.

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Table2.1OverviewofenergytransitionstatusacrossCARECcountries

Country

GreenTransition

Renewable

Main

KeyProgress

MajorChallenges

Status

EnergyTargets

RenewableSources

Kazakhstan

LeadinginCentralAsia

15%by2030,50%by2050

Wind,Solar

Policyframeworks,auctions

Heavycoalreliance,aginginfrastructure

Uzbekistan

Rapidprogress

25%by2030

Solar,Wind

Successfulauctions,foreigninvestment

Lowenergyefficiency,fossilfueldominance

Turkmenistan

Minimalprogress

Noofficialtargets

Negligible

Focusongasexports

Weakclimatepolicy,lackoftransparency

Kyrgyzstan

Hydropowerleader

Maintainhighshare

Hydropower

90%electricityfromhydropower

Watervariability,limiteddiversification

Tajikistan

Cleanpowersystem

Maintain~95%

Hydropower

Amongthecleanest

Wintershortages,climaterisk

Azerbaijan

Earlydiversification

hydropower

30%by2030

Solar,Wind

energymixes

Large-scaleforeignpartnerships

Oilandgasdependency

Georgia

Moderateprogress

Increase

renewableshare

Hydropower,Wind

Over60%fromhydropower

Financinggaps,energysecurityconcerns

Mongolia

Strongpotential

30%by2030

Wind,Solar

Grid-connected

projectswithADBsupport

Coaldependence,harshclimate

15

Pakistan

Scalingupinvestments

60%renewable

electricityby2030

Solar,Wind,Hydro

Largehydropowerprojects,policy

reforms

Gridinstability,fossilfuelsubsidies

Afghanistan

Verylimitedbutvital

Nounifiedtarget

Solar,SmallHydro

Donor-fundedoff-gridprojects

Conflict,limitedinfrastructure

China(West)

Globalleader,regionalgaps

Carbonneutralityby2060

Alltypes(esp.

solar/wind)

Large-scalerenewabledeployment

ContinuedcoaldependenceinXinjiang

Sources:Satubaldina,A.(2025,February13).RenewablesexposeweaknessesinKazakhstan’spowersector,transformmindsets.TheAstanaTimes.

ClimateandCleanAirCoalition.(n.d.).Kazakhstan.Climate&CleanAirCoalition.RetrievedJuly3,2025,from

/partners/kazakhstan

PVKnowHow.(2025,May15).Azerbaijanrenewableenergygoals:30%renewableenergyby2030.PVKnowHow.RetrievedJuly3,2025,from

/azerbaijan-renewable-energy-goals-30-percent-2030/

Dimovska,M.(2024,January26).Mongolia’scleanenergytransition:Apathwaytosustainableandinclusivedevelopment.UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme.

RetrievedJuly3,2025,from

/mongolia/blog/mongolias-clean-energy-transition-pathway-sustainable-and-inclusive-development

CleantechLawPartners.(2024,June).Pakistanaimstogenerate60%ofitsenergyfromcleanandrenewableenergysourcesby2030.CleantechLaw.RetrievedJuly3,2025,from

/2024/06/pakistan-aims-to-generate-60-of-its-energy-from-clean-and-renewable-energy-sources-by-2030/

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Overall,greentransitioneffortsinCARECcountriesareprogressingbutremainunevenandconstrainedbysystemicchallenges.CountriessuchasTurkmenistanandAfghanistanrequiresubstantialinternationalsupportanddomesticinstitutionalreform,whileothers,includingKazakhstan,Uzbekistan,andMongolia,havemademeasurableprogressindiversifyingtheirenergymixes.

Countrieswithabundanthydropowerresourcesarewellpositionedforlow-carbondevelopmentbutremainvulnerabletoclimate-relatedrisks.Meanwhile,fossilfuel–exportingcountriesfaced