东鹏饮料跟踪报告：Q1收入增长有望超预期短期“糖税”传闻扰动无碍长期逻辑

财务报表分析和预测主要财务指标2024A2025E2026E2027E资产负债表（百万元）2024A2025E2026E2027E盈利能力现金及现金等价物3,3288,68712,59716,845ROE43.5%46.1%46.4%45.1%应收账款81108134159毛利率44.8%45.9%46.5%46.9%存货1,0681,8922,3222,738营业利润率26.2%27.2%28.1%28.5%预付费用0000销售净利率21.0%21.9%22.6%22.9%其他流动资产8,2288,4138,5138,610成长能力流动资产合计12,70619,10023,56628,352营业收入增长率40.6%32.5%24.1%18.7%固定资产3,6703,1073,8354,462营业利润增长率60.1%38.0%27.9%20.3%无形资产7461,0031,2551,503净利润增长率63.1%38.4%27.9%20.3%递延所得税460460460460其他非流动资产5,0955,1075,1255,139每股指标与估值非流动资产合计9,9719,67710,67511,565EPS（元）6.408.8511.3313.63资产总计22,67628,77634,24139,917P/E43312420应付账款及票据1,2652,2422,7513,243其他应付款1,0891,9302,3682,792短期借款6,5516,5516,5516,551利润表（百万元）2024A2025E2026E2027E应交所得税379502623740收入15,83920,99126,05430,935流动负债合计14,84518,64221,39924,060成本8,74211,36013,94016,435长期债务0000税金及附加160212263312租赁负债85858585毛利7,0979,63112,11514,500其他长期债务54545454销售费用2,6813,4594,2415,004长期负债合计140140140140管理费用426522629747负债合计14,98518,78121,53824,200研发费用6383103122留存收益5,1657,51510,22213,236财务费用-191-194-270-420母公司股东权益7,6459,99512,70315,717资产减值损失0000少数股东权益信用减值损失4,1455,7197,3178,803负债和股东权益总计22,67628,77634,24139,917投资收益9511011010其他收益59595959营业利润4,1455,7197,3178,803现金流量表（百万元）2024A2025E2026E2027E营业外收入2000净利润3,3274,6045,8907,086营业外支出40000折旧摊销337378484590税前利润4,1075,7197,3178,803少数股东损益0000所得税7811,1151,4271,717营运资金变动(2,139)4582,1684,292少数股东损益0000其他-22000归母净利润3,3274,6045,8907,086经营活动现金流5,7897,4628,2089,384扣非后归母净利润3,2624,6045,8907,086资本支出(21,243)(1,494)(1,494)(1,494)其他(8)---投资活动现金流(6,875)16(1,384)(1,484)支付股息(2,051)(2,106)(2,913)(3,652)借款变动2,511(8,096)(2,106)(2,913)其他(112)(306)--筹资活动现金流1,507(2,119)(2,913)(3,652)汇率变动32---现金净增加额4215,3593,9104,248期末现金及等价物3,3288,68712,59716,845备注：（1）36日；（2）HTIAPPENDIX1SummarySpringFestivalsalesgotofftoastrongstart,withQ1growthexpectedtoexceedexpectations.Pre-holidaybusinessarrangementsinclude:1)Expandingdistributionchannelstoreachvillage-leveloutlets;2)Deployingadditionaltemporaryshoppingguidestopromotegiftboxes;3)Placingproductsinchannelssuchasinternetcafesandbathcenters.DrivenbysteadygrowthinandwarmSpringFestivalsalesperformedwell:FromJanuarytoFebruary2026,thecoreenergydrinkproductsawapproximately20%growth,whilethesecondgrowthcurveproduct"Buleila"achievedhighyear-on-yeargrowth.DuringtheSpringFestival,thecoconutmilkbrand"Hainanao"giftboxessoldbriskly,witha300%year-on-yearincrease.Buildingonahighbasein25Q1,weexpectrevenuefor26Q1toachievearound30%growth.Theinternationalizationstrategyaccelerating,markedbytheH-sharelistingandentryintotheSoutheastAsianmarket.ThecompanytookastepinitsinternationalizationstrategybycompletingitsH-sharelistingontheHongKongStockExchangeonFebruary3,2026,raisingnetproceedsofapproximatelyHKD10billion.Thesefundsareplannedforoverseassupplychainconstruction,channeldevelopment,andbrandpromotion.Ithasformedajointventure,PTDongpengVitaminFunctionalDrink,withIndonesia'sSalimGroup,leveragingthelatter'smaturelocalchannelnetwork(SalimGroupoperatesover11,000smallsupermarkets).Additionally,itisbuildinglocalteamsinVietnam,Malaysia,andothercountriestoaccelerateitsentrancetotheSoutheastAsianmarket,whichhasayoungpopulationandstrongdemandforenergydrinks.Short-termdisturbancesfrom"sugartax"rumorsdonotaffectlong-termvalue,withchannelsandproductsdrivinggrowth.InFebruary,marketrumorsaboutimposinghigheronsugarydrinksledtoashort-termstockpricecorrection.believesuchapolicyisunlikelytobeimplementedsoon,andasmarketsentimentrecovers,thepreviouspullbackmayofferafavorableinvestment Channeloperationsarecontinuouslybeingexpandedandoptimizedthrough:1)Acceleratedfreezerplacements:Planningtoplace120,000to200,000in2026(currently400,000),targeting1millionunitswithin3-5years;2)Digitalempowerment:Leveragingtheindustry-leading"FiveCodesinOne"digitalsystemtogainreal-timevisibilityintochannelinventoryandterminalsales,enablingdata-drivenprecisiondistributionandcost-efficiencyoptimization,thuscontinuouslyimprovingoperationalefficiency.Theplatform-basedstrategyismaturing:Thecoreenergydrinkcontinuestoinnovatevertically,stillpossessingsignificantgrowthheadroom.Horizontally,newcategoriesarerapidlyincubated;thesecondgrowthcurveelectrolytedrinkcontinuespromotionandmaintainshighgrowth.Byexpandingproductspecificationstomatchmultiplescenarios,thecompanyhaslaunchednewlarge-packsizesoffruitteatargetingthefoodservicechannel,itscoconutmilkgifthavereceivedpositivemarketfeedback,andnewmilkteaandroastedteaproductsoffercompetitivepricinganddifferentiatedflavors,enrichingtheproductportfolio.ProfitForecastsandInvestmentRecommendation:Accordingtocompanyannouncements,2025revenue/recurringnetprofitattributabletoshareholdersareexpectedtoincreaseby31-33%/26-33%forecastthatprofitgrowthwilloutpacerevenuegrowthin2026duetoimprovinggrossmarginsfornewproducts,thecommissioningofthenewTianjinplanttomeetnorthernmarketdemand,andlowerPETandwhitesugarcosts.estimatethecompany'srevenuefor2025-2027tobeRMB20.99bn/26.05bn/30.94bn,representinggrowthof32.5%/24.1%/18.7%(previousestimate:31.8%/21.6%/18.2%);netprofitattributabletoshareholderstobeRMB4.6bn/5.89bn/7.09bn,growing38%/27.9%/20.3%(previousestimate:37.4%/26.2%/19.4%);andEPStobeRMB8.9/11.3/13.6(previousestimate:RMB8.8/11.1/13.2).Referringtovaluationsofcomparablecompanies,wemaintaina30xfor2026,settingatargetpriceofRMB340(previous:RMB333)andreiteratingan"Outperform"rating.RiskWarning:Intenseindustrycompetition;upwardtrendinrawmaterialprices.APPENDIX2ESGCommentsEnvironmental:Thecompanyhasnotbeenpunishedforanyenvironmentalissues.Social:Thecompanyactivelyprotectstherightsandinterestsofshareholders,creditors,consumers,andcustomers.Governance:Thecompany'sgovernancestructuredidnotundergosignificantadjustments.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，XiaoruiHu，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,XiaoruiHu,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,HongweiWen,certifythati)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).NoDisclosure评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市12-1810%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100,美国–SP500;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina. 截至2025年12月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布 截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市中性弱于大市优于大市中性弱于大市(持有)(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 6.0%0.1%92.3%7.5%0.2%投资银行客户* 3.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。4.0%0.0%3.3%3.9%0.0%上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution, HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution, asofDecember31,2025 asofSeptember30,2025 OutperformNeutralUnderperformOutperformNeutralUnderperformHTIEquityResearchCoverage93.9%6.0%0.1%92.3%7.5%0.2%IBclients*3.0%4.0%0.0%3.3%3.9%0.0%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitative,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccordingtovaluationandothermetricsormaysuggestpricesbasedonpossiblevaluationmultiples.Suchrankingsorsuggestedpricesdonotpurporttobestockratingsortargetpricesorfundamentalvaluesandareforinformationonly.海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰海通证券（601211.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与国泰海通证券不同的评级系统，