瑞银-矿业策略：中东休战下的矿业投资机遇-Mining Strategy Middle East Truce：Opportunities in mining-20260408

a§

GlobalResearch

8April2026

MiningStrategy

MiddleEastTruce:Opportunitiesinmining

CopperandGoldequitiesbestpositionedinde-escalationscenario

Inarecentupdatewecharacterisedtheoutlookfortheminersas'binary'basedontheoutcomeoftheconflictintheMiddleEast(LINK).IftheannouncedceasefireleadstoanormalisationofflowsthroughtheStraitofHormuzandlowerenergyprices,inourviewan'EnergyPriceShock'resultinginaprotractedperiodofweakdemandforindustrialmetalsislikelytobeavoided.WebelieveCopperequitiesofferthemostattractiveriskvsrewardifde-escalationandenergypricenormalisationpersists,followedbygoldequities.Aluminiumandthermalcoalhavebeensupportedbydisruptionandelevatedoilandgasprices,andwewouldexpectrelativeoutperformancetounwind.

Copper:PositioningwasextendedaheadoftheMiddleEastconflictandriskstodemandhavecausedapositioningreset.Despitenear-termriskstodemand,inourviewthepositivefundamentaloutlookforcopperbasedonsupplyconstraintsandresilientdemandfromenergytransitionisunchanged/arguablymorecompelling.Sincethestartoftheconflict,IVNhasannouncedanother~100ktpadowngradeto2026/27productionatKamoa-Kakula,andinourviewenergypricevolatilityislikelytoreinforcetheneedforsustainedinvestmentinrenewables,gridsandreshoringthatwouldsupportcopperdemand.Globalvisiblecopperinventoriesareelevated,butChinainventorieshavestartedtodecline,inlinewithseasonalpatterns.

Copperequities(COPEXETF)aredown~20%sincethestartoftheconflict.Weseethisasabuyingopportunityforstocksrichwithcatalystsandtradingatdiscountedvaluationswithoutmaterialupsidetocopperprices.FirstQuantum:WeseecompellingvalueinFMandseerecentgovernmentapprovalfortheprocessingofstockpiledoreatCobrePanamaasamaterialstepclosertoarestartthatshouldactasapositivecatalyst.Freeportistradingatamaterialdiscounttohistoricalvaluationandpeers,assumingproductionattheGrasbergminerecoversinlinewithguidance;webelievetheramp-upwillbede-riskedoverthenext6-12m,drivingre-ratingandoutperformance.Anglo&Teck:inourviewthelogicofthemergeriscompelling,proformavaluationisattractiveandthestockoffershighqualitycopperexposureandlowcapexintensityvolumegrowthwithself-help.

Gold:Basedonrecentpriceaction/macrocorrelations,de-escalationshouldbepositive,implyinglowerinflationandthecorrespondingread-throughtoFedpolicyandeasingconcernsthathigher-for-longerenergypriceswillresultinEMcentralbanksselling/buyinglessgold.Positioningiscleanerandonbalancethefactorsthatunderpinnedgold'supcycle(debasementandUSdiversification)arestillinplaceandshouldsupportelevatedgoldpricesin2026.

Goldequities:Despite'cheapvaluations'andlimitedre-ratingduringanearningsupgradecycleoverthelasttwoyears,goldequities(GDXIndex)aredown~20%sincethestartoftheconflict.Thepowerfulconsensusupgradecyclethathassupportedthegoldminersisunlikelytocontinueandmayreverse;butifpricesstayinthe$4,000s/ozrange,wethinkcashmarginsarestillattractive(majorsAISC<$2,000/oz)andvaluationsaregenerallyundemanding.Thisleavesusviewingtherecentpullbackasanattractiveopportunityforselectedgoldstocks.PreferredgoldminersareNewmont,Endeavour,SSR,andSkeena.Afterrelativeunderperformanceandinsulatedfromcostpressures,werecentlyturnedmorepositiveinstreamers,upgradingWheaton,andwereiterateourBuyonFranco-Nevada.

Equities

Global

BasicMaterials

DanielMajor

Analyst

daniel.major@

+44-20-75683472

MylesAllsop

Analyst

myles.allsop@

+44-20-75681693

AmyYiLi

Analyst

amy-yi.li@

+44-20-75682064

GeorgeEadie

Analyst

george.eadie@

+1-646-9964596

AlexStansbury,CFA

AssociateAnalyst

alex.stansbury@

+1-212-8820097

AndrewJones

Analyst

andrew-i.jones@

+44-20-79016545

LachlanShaw

Analyst

lachlan.shaw@

+61-3-92426387

BeiliWang

Analyst

beili.wang@

+852-29717812

SharonDing

Analyst

sharon.ding@

+852-29716284

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,iNcLuDiNGiNfoRmAtioNoNtHEQuANtitAtivEREsEARcHREviEwpuBLisHEDByUBS,BEGiNoNpAGE13.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

MiningStrategy8April2026婚§2

Aluminium:LMEis+10%sincethestartoftheconflict,outperformingcopperby15%.WeexpectsomeofthisoutperformancetounwindiftheStraitofHormuzre-opens,reducingtheriskofcurtailmentsto~5mtofsmeltercapacityinME;however,inourview,damage/disruptionto~3mtofsmeltercapacityintheMiddleEast(EGA~1.6mtAlTaweelahsmelterwilltakeuptooneyeartoresumeoperations-LINK;andALBA~1.6mtsmelterwasdamagedbyamissilestrike-LINK)combinedwiththecurtailmentofMozal(575kt)islikelytoresultinmorelostsupplyvsdemandweaknessin2026,supportinghigherprices,andthemedium-termS&Doutlookremainssupportive.

Aluminium:AAandNHYare+20%sincethestartoftheconflict.Weexpectsomeofthisoutperformancetoreversebutexpect'higherforlonger'aluminiumpricestosupportearningsandvaluationsremainundemanding.

ThermalCoal:HighCVthermalpricesareup15-20%sincethestartoftheconflictbutremainwellbeloweconomicparitywithgas(TTF/AsiaLNG),whilelowerCVpriceshavebeensupportedbypotentialsupplydisruptionsfromIndonesia.Inourview,powerplantsintheEUandAsiaarestilllikelytoincreasecoalburnratesoverthenext3-6monthsduetogassupplydisruptionsandrelativeeconomics(evenifgaspricescomedown),butthelonger-termoutlookforthermalcoalislesssupportive(vsbasemetals).

MiningStrategy8April2026a§3

MiningStrategyUBSResearch

GLoBALBAsEMETALsINvENToRy

Exchangeinventories(LME,SHFEandCOMEX)arereadilyavailable,but,inourview,theydonottellthewholestory(particularlyinChina).Wecollatemostoftheglobalbasemetalinventorydataavailabletous,andwebelievethisprovidesaclearerpictureofthebroadersupply/demanddynamics;however,wenotethatsignificantadditionalinventoryislikelytoexistinmetalsupplychainsorunreportedfinancialinventories.

Copper:ThewideCOMEXvsLMEpremium,until31stJuly,distortedthephysicalcoppertrade,resultinginflowofinventoryfromLME/ChinatotheUS,withComexinventoriesup350kt(>400%)vsLMEinventoriesdown~120kt(~40%)in2025.Chinainventoriesbroadlyfollowedseasonalpatterns,butinventoriesstartedliftinginDec-25(earlierthanusual),reflectingsoftdemand.In2026ComexinventoriescontinuedtobuildinJan/Feb(+100kt)duetothepotentialforUSrefinedcoppertariffsin2027(@15%-LINK),butinventorieshavestabilisedinMarch/April.LMEinventorieshaveconsistentlyrisenin2026(+200kt).ChinainventoriesincreasedinDec-25(seasonalinventorybuildstartingearlierthanusual)andareup~320kt(290%)YTD,includinga>150ktincreaseposttheChineseNewYear.PeakinventoriespostChineseNewYearwerelargerthanusual,butwithinthefive-yearrangeand,inourview,a~130ktdrawdownsincemid-Marchisencouraging.

Aluminium:Visibleglobalaluminiuminventoriesfinished2025athistoricallylowlevels.Chinaseasonalinventorybuildhasalsobeenhighervs2024/25,takingpeakinventoriesslightlyabovethetopofthefive-yearrange.AnecdotallyChinaaluminiumdemandheldupbetterthancopperin1Q,butinventorieshavenotstartedtodrawsinceChineseNewYear,reflectingbuyerspullingbackfromthemarketinresponsetohigherpricesduetotheMiddleEastconflict.IncontrasttocopperEx-China/LMEinventoriesremainlow.

Zinc:Globalvisibleinventoriesended2025atlowlevels.InDec-25LMEzincinventoriesreachedcriticallevels,resultinginabackwardationonLMEandmaterialLMEvsSHFEpremium.WithrefinedoutputinChinarising,zinchasstartedtomoveoutofChinaontotheLME,withinventoriesincreasinginlate2025/early2026.

Nickel:LMEinventoryhasbeensteadilyincreasingsinceend2023asthemarketmovedintosurplusandtheregistrationofmore'new'LMEnickelbrandsprovidedmoreopportunitiestodeliverontotheLME.

Figure1:Globalvisible/reportedbasemetalinventories(Kt)

2023

2024

2025

y/y%

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

m/m%

20-Mar

27-Mar

03-Apr

Changew/w%

ChangeYTD

Copper

LME

167

273

157

-42%

175

254

360

42%

342

360

364

4

1%

207

132%

SHFE

31

74

112

51%

233

392

359

-8%

411

359

301

-58

-16%

189

170%

Comex

17

87

438

405%

524

546

534

-2%

534

534

533

-1

0%

95

22%

ChinaBonded

8

22

75

244%

72

68

61

-10%

61

61

53

-8

-13%

-22

-30%

Sub-total

223

456

782

72%

1,004

1,259

1,315

4%

1,349

1,315

1,252

-63

-5%

470

60%

LMEoff-warrant

5

83

57

-31%

71

86

111

30%

112

111

133

21

19%

76

134%

Total

228

538

839

56%

1,075

1,344

1,426

6%

1,460

1,426

1,385

-42

-3%

546

65%

Aluminium

LME

549

653

521

-20%

496

466

421

-10%

430

421

412

-9

-2%

-109

-21%

SHFE

99

201

129

-36%

217

356

455

28%

452

455

470

16

3%

342

266%

Comex

42

27

6

-78%

4

4

2

-46%

3

2

2

0

-16%

-4

-66%

ChinaOther

335

289

488

69%

565

801

894

12%

887

894

879

-16

-2%

390

80%

Sub-total

1,025

1,170

1,144

-2%

1,282

1,627

1,772

9%

1,772

1,772

1,763

-9

-1%

619

54%

LMEoff-warrant

541

365

159

-56%

129

119

106

-11%

104

106

107

1

1%

-52

-33%

Total

1,566

1,535

1,303

-15%

1,410

1,746

1,879

8%

1,876

1,879

1,870

-9

0%

567

44%

Zinc

LME

225

245

107

-56%

110

97

115

19%

118

115

114

-1

-1%

7

7%

SHFE

21

30

73

141%

65

126

149

18%

152

149

147

-1

-1%

74

102%

Sub-total

246

275

180

-35%

175

223

264

18%

270

264

261

-3

-1%

81

45%

LMEoff-warrant

73

38

26

-32%

35

43

34

-22%

33

34

38

4

13%

12

46%

Total

319

313

206

-34%

210

267

298

12%

303

298

299

1

0%

93

45%

Nickel

LME

64

162

256

58%

286

288

282

-2%

284

282

281

0

0%

26

10%

SHFE

14

36

44

23%

55

61

64

6%

64

64

66

1

2%

21

48%

Sub-total

78

198

300

51%

342

349

346

-1%

347

346

347

1

0%

47

16%

LMEoff-warrant

17

69

105

51%

95

105

114

9%

112

114

114

0

0%

10

9%

Total

95

268

405

51%

437

453

460

1%

459

460

462

2

0%

57

14%

Source:LME,SHFE&COMEX-Bloomberg.Copperbonded(weekly)-SMM.AluminiumChinaother(weekly)-WIND.Wheredataisnotavailablethelastavailabledataiscarriedforward.UBSresearch.

MiningStrategy8April2026婚§4

Copper

Visiblecopperinventorieshaveclimbedtowards1mtandneartheaverage2010-20levelsof~750mtandthestockconsumptionratioof>2.5xisnowabovehistoricallevels.

Figure2:Globalcopperinventories(kt)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

1,750

1,500

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0

LMECOMEXSHFEChinaBondedS:Cratio

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Source:Bloomberg,MetalBulletin,WoodMac,UBSestimates

Likeothercommodities,copperinventoriesinChinaareseasonal,risingin1Qanddrawingdownthrough2Q-4Q.Visibleincreasedin2026,butremainslowvshistorical

levels&vsglobalconsumption.

Figure3:Globalcopperinventories-kt

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-

LMECOMEXSHFEChinaBonded

Source:Bloomberg,MetalBulletin,WoodMac,UBSestimates

Figure4:Chinacopperinventories-kt

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2023

2021

2022

2024

2025

2026

Source:Bloomberg,MetalBulletin,WoodMac,UBSestimates

MiningStrategy8April2026a§5

Aluminium

Visiblealuminiuminventoriesdeclinedfromapeakof~7mtin2014andsettledinarangeof2-3mtover2017-21.Amongthemajorbasemetals,aluminiumhashadthemostpersistentwarehousecarrytrade;wethinkthislikelyresultedinaproportionofthe2014-17visibleinventorydrawdownmovingtounreportedlocations(ratherthanbeingconsumed).

Figure5:Globalaluminiuminventories-Mt

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

LMECOMEXSHFEOtherChina

Source:Bloomberg,SMM

Visiblealuminiuminventories(SHFE+socialinventory)finished2024atlowlevels.

Figure6:Chinaaluminiuminventories-Kt

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0

202120222023202420252026

Source:Bloomberg,SMM

Figure7:Globalaluminiuminventories-Mt

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0

202120222023202420252026

Source:Bloomberg,SMM

MiningStrategy8April2026婚§6

Zinc

Wearenotawareofreliabledataforhigh-frequencynon-exchangedataforzinc,sowetrackonlyexchangeinventories,butweacknowledgethisisnotverycomprehensive.

Zincexchangeinventoriesremainlowvshistoricallevels,buthaveincreasedmateriallyvs2022lows.

Figure8:Globalzincexchangeinventoriesvsprice(Kt)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

4,700

4,200

3,700

3,200

2,700

2,200

1,700

1,200

ZincPriceUS$/t(RHS)

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

EuropeLME

SHFEstocks

AsiaLME

USALME

Source:Bloomberg,WoodMac,UBSestimates

Nickel

In2022/23,thenickelmarketbecameincreasinglybifurcatedandbottleneckspreventingarbitragebetweenclass1vsclass2andChinavsROWhaveresultedinadisconnectinnickelpricing,withpersistenttightnessinROWmetalmarketsdrivingLMEdrawdownvsoversupplyinNPIandNiSO4.In2H23,thisdisconnectstartedtounwind,resultinginanincreaseinLMEinventories.

Figure9:Globalrefinednickelinventoriesvsprice

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

500

400

300

200

100

0

LMESHFELMEPrice($/t)

Source:Bloomberg,WoodMac,UBSestimates

Figure10:Chineseportsnickeloreinventories-Mt

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Source:Bloomberg,UBSestimates

MiningStrategy8April2026a§7

Basemetalpositioning

Figure11:LMEcoppernetpositioning*

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

-800

LMECopperNetLong(kt)Copperprice($/t)

Source:Bloomberg,UBSresearch*Investmentfundsonly

Figure13:LMEaluminiumnetpositioning*

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

5,500

4,500

3,500

2,500

1,500

500

-500

-1,500

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

LMEAluminiumNetLong(kt)Alprice($/t)

Source:Bloomberg,UBSresearch*Investmentfundsonly

Figure15:LMEzincnetpositioning*

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

LMEZincNetLong(kt)Zincprice($/t)

Source:Bloomberg,UBSresearch*Investmentfundsonly

Figure12:SHFEcoppernetpositioning

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

SHFECopperNetLong(kt)Copperprice($/t)

Source:Bloomberg,UBSresearch

Figure14:SHFEaluminiumnetpositioning*

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

200

4,000

3,500

150

3,000

100

2,500

50

2,000

1,500

0

1,000

-50

500

-100

0

SHFEAluminiumNetLong(kt)Alprice($/t)

Source:Bloomberg,UBSresearch*Investmentfundsonly

Figure16:LMEnickelnetpositioning*

300

250

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

40,000

35,000

200

30,000

150

100

50

0

25,000

20,000

15,000

-50

10,000

-100

-150

-200

5,000

0

LMENetpositioningNickelPrice

Source:Bloomberg,UBSresearch*Investmentfundsonly

MiningStrategy8April2026a§8

Coppercharts

Figure17:Chinarefinedcopperproduction(kt)

20

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

202120222023202420252026

45

40

35

30

25

Source:SMM,UBSResearch

Figure19:Copperpremiums(US$/t)

Nov-17

Apr-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

Dec-19

May-20

Oct-20

Mar-21

Aug-21

Jan-22

Jun-22

Nov-22

Apr-23

Sep-23

Feb-24

Jul-24

Dec-24

May-25

Oct-25

Mar-26

0-40

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

USEuropeChina(RHS)

Source:Fastmarkets

Figure21:Chile(~30%total)coppermineproduction(ktpd)

19.0

18.0

17.0

16.0

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

202420252026

Source:Cochilco

Figure18:Chinarefinedcopperimports(kt)

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

202120222023202420252026

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

Figure20:CopperTCRCs(Chinaspot)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

SPOT(China)AnnualBenchmark

Source:MetalBulletin

Figure22:Peru(~12%total)coppermineproduction(ktpd)

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

202420252026

Source:MinisteriodeEnergiayMinas

MiningStrategy8April2026a§9

Aluminiumcharts

Figure23:Monthlyaluminaproduction(kt)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

105

95

85

75

65

55

45

Series1China

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

Figure25:Monthlyaluminiumproduction(ktpaann)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

ChinaRoW

Source:Bloomberg,Aladdiny,UBSResearch

Figure27:AluminiumSHFEvsLMEarb(US$/t)

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

-800

-1,000

-1,200

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Incentivetoimport

primary

Noincentivetoimport

primary

SHFEvsLMEPricedifferential3mMA

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

Figure24:Chinaaluminanettrade(kt)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-500

ImportsExportsNet

500

300

100

-100

-300

Imports

Exports

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

Figure26:Regionalphysicalaluminiumpremiums($/t)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

USMidwest-DutyPaidEurope-DutyPaidJapan

Source:Bloomberg,Aladdiny,UBSResearch

Figure28:Chinaaluminiumnettrade(kt)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

700

500

300

100

-100

-300

-500

ImportExportNet

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

MiningStrategy8April2026a§10

Zinccharts

Figure29:ZincTC/RCs(US$/t)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

Spot-RealisedBenchmarkContract

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

Figure31:Chinamonthlyrefinedzincproduction(kt)

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24

Jan-25

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

RefinedZincProduction12mMa

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

Figure33:Peruzincmineproduction(kt/month)

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

202020212022202320242025

Source:MinisteriodeEnergíayMinas

Figure30:Chinazincconcentrateimports(kt)

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24

Jun-25

Dec-25

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Zincconcimports12mma

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

Figure32:Chinamonthlyrefinedzincimports(kt)

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24

Jun-25

Dec-25

130

110

90

70

50

30

10

-10

-30

-50

RefinedZincImports12mMa

Source:Bloomberg,UBSResearch

Figure34:Zincpremiums(US$/t)

Nov17

Mar18

Jul18

Nov18

Mar19

Jul19

Nov19

Mar20

Jul20

Nov20

Mar21

Jul21

Nov21

Mar22

Jul22

Nov22

Mar23

Jul23

Nov23

Mar24

Jul24

Nov24

Mar25

Jul25

Nov25

US$/t

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Europe

US

Source:WoodMac,UBSResearch

MiningStrategy8April2026a§11

Nickelcharts

Figure35:Nickelpricing-MetalvsNPI(US$/t)

Jan-19

Aug-19

Mar-20

Oct-20

May-21

Dec-21

Jul-22