2025东南亚国家煤炭转型挑战与经验报告

Challenges,LessonsLearned,andStrategicInsightsfromtheASEANPresentationby:HeadoftheSustainableandRenewableEnergy(SRE)DepartmentASEANCentreforEnergy塔琳亚·苏帕萨博⼠东盟能源中⼼可持续和可再⽣能源部⻔主任LandscapeofCoalinSoutheastAsia东南亚煤炭现状AlmostallASEANMemberStates—exceptforthePhilippinesandMyanmar—havedeclared计划：在特定年份前逐步淘汰煤炭、开始退役现有燃煤电厂，或承%00CoalremainsdeeplyembeddedinASEAN’senergyvaluechain,withIndonesiaasakeyregionalsuppliercontributingto89%oftheregioncoalproduction.煤炭在东00ProductionfordomesticProductionfordomesticuseConsumptionConsumption45,00040,00000Coaluseinpowergenerationhasshownaslightdeclinerecently,conversely,theincreaseseeninindustryandcaptivecoalplants.近期煤炭在发电领域的使用量出现小幅0TheCFPPsintheregionarerelativelyyoung,averagingjust14.3years.ThemajorityofCFPPsinSoutheastAsiaarelow-efficiencymodels.本地区燃煤电厂0Thecontroversiessurroundingthecoalphase-downunderclimatecommitment,specificallydebatesonenergysecurityandaffordability,frequentlyleadtopolicyparadoxes.在气候承诺背景下，domesticandimportedcoaldomesticandimportedcoalblending.•BenefitfromthecompetitivecoalimportpricefromIndonesia.capimportedcoalpowerfromLaoNationalpowercompcommitstopurchasingaminimumquantityofpowercoalproductionby2030,coalmarketandinfrastructureexpansion.(2025)capelectricitypricefrom•producerstoallocate2590/tonneforselectedindustries.•financialandoperationallock-•CompetitiveimportpricingandproximitytoIndonesia’scoal.•••CompetitiveimportpricingandproximitytoIndonesia’scoal.•coalusetoreduceimports.Promotelocdevelopmentandattractprivateinveexploration,mining,transport,andinfrastructure.Includefixed-pricecontracts,fuelcost-passthroughandguaranteeddispatch.•CompetitiveimportpricingandproximitytoIndonesia’scoal.东盟国别聚焦：现有燃煤电厂的解决方案86420CombustionCombustion USC Co-firing efficiencyGasification Ultra-Supercritical--yKeyTakeaways核心结论东盟煤炭未来展望ASEANMemberStatesadoptedthenewEnergyCooperationBlueprint*lastmonthtoadvanceregionalcooperationonenergytransition.Oneofthetopprioritiesfor2030istoadvancerenewableenergyinthepowersystemandsharecredibleenergyattributesthroughtheASEANPowerGrid.东盟成员国于上月通过了新版《能源合作蓝图》*西亚吉隆坡举行的第43届东盟能源部长会议*EnergyCooperationBlueprint=ASEANPlanofActionforEnergyCooperationThememberstateshaveadoptedtransformation,toaligneffortstowardtherapidscale-upofVREs.成员国已采纳《东盟可再生 32.7%18.8%37.8%37.8%CoalCapacityOverTime:ShiftingRoleandHowtoFinanceIt 一ASER-CoalASER-Gas *Flexiblecoalplantshaveunpredictablegenerationandmaystillemitsignificantlyifnotreplacedbyreoperatingatlowl