高盛-中国旅游与休闲行业追踪：中东冲突之际国内及短途旅游呈现韧性；酒店RevPar趋势稳健；在线旅行社和澳门股更具价值（摘要）-20260414

2026年4月14日|5:39PMHKT中东冲突之际国内及短途旅游呈现韧性；酒店RevPar趋势在上月的2025年四季度业绩期当中，我们覆盖范围内的旅游公司普遍对业务前景表示乐观，其中在线旅行社(OTA)运营商预计2026年一季度收入将同比增长15%左右（携程指引为12-17%，同程OTA业务指引亦为12-17%）以及国内业务利润率将呈现稳定趋势，不过携程的整体利润率可能因处于亏损状态的T平台的贡献上升而受到拖累。除亚朵外，大多数酒店运营商（华住、锦江、首旅）预计2026年一季度收入将实现中高个位数增长，隐含的2026年一季度每客房收入(RevPar)增幅预测较为保守，仅为1-2%。新秀丽预计2026年一季度净销售额将同比持平（以当地货币计），其中美国/欧洲市场的温和下滑将被亚洲市场1-2%的同比增长（尤其是在中国、日本和韩国市场）所部分抵消，同时毛利率预计将同比稳定在59%。为评估年初以来旅游趋势与公司指引的情况，我们更新频追踪指标。1-2月份国内航空/铁路客运量同比增长3-4%（2025年四季度为+5%/+9%增速放缓归因于春节假期时点的干扰，此后在4月4-6日的清明节三天假期中势头向好，文化和旅游部数据显示假期国内出游人次和旅游6.8%和6.6%。目前没有关于商务旅行的单独数据，但服务业采购经理指数（图表6）显示近几个月改善有限——这或许也解释了为何华住/亚朵（两者商务旅行业务占比均较高）的每客房收入不再像前几个季度那样跑赢整体行业2-5%。总体而言，2026年一季度行业RevPar稳健增长4%（根据STR数据），因为供应增长依然缓慢，同比增长2%（根据酒店之家对拥有15间及以上客房的酒店统其在主要电商平台（淘宝/天猫和抖音）的线上商品交易总额(GMV)仍然增长强2026年一季度同比增幅超过70%（全年指引为25-30%）。机票方面，春运过后国内机票价格保持良好势头，同比上涨9%，国际机票价格同比上涨22%；进入4月份，在航司上调燃油附加费从而部分转嫁燃油成本的上涨后，国内机票价14%。出境游增长保持韧性。根据国家移民管理局的数据（图表10），2026陆居民出境游人次同比增长14%（2025年三/四季度分别为+15%/+14%），澳门/香港游是主要增长动力（同比增长25%/20%），其他目的地同比增长12%（2025年四季张启业,CFA+852-2978-6102|simon.cheung@+852-2978-6972|leah.pan@ZhaohengChen+852-2978-0901|zhaoheng.chen@+852-2978-1984|alpha.wang@+852-2978-0726|herbert.lu@+852-2978-0415|ying.huang@信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国度为+15%），其中泰国、菲律宾和马来西亚在去年因泰国在安全方面的担忧而基数较低、以及今年1月菲律宾免签政策生效之后，吸引了更多中国大陆游客。在机票价格（尤其是长航线，3月份+6%）上涨之际，我们认为短期内短途目的地将继续吸引更多中国游客。尽管有媒体报道称，因油价上涨，一些亚洲航司正在削减盈利能访客量支撑博彩总收入(GGR)增长呈现韧性，2026年一季度同比增长15%（2025年三/四季度分别为+13%/+15%）。加上近几个月竞争环境和再投资活动更趋稳定，我们预计澳门博彩股的收入和利润率将呈现环比稳定的趋势（2026年一季度业绩前瞻量同比增速保持在16%（图表36香港零售额同比增速也加快至12%。其他方面，2026年一季度海南三亚凤凰机场和海口美兰机场的入境航空客流量同比增长4%（2025年四季度为+5%），而免税销售额波动较大，3月份同比增长25%（1月/2月分别为+45%/+15%），整个一季度累计同比增长26%，我们预测全年增幅为20%。我们更新后的价格调查（图表27）显示，门店价格折扣基本稳定。有报道称（链接），2026年一季度三亚市政府累计发放离岛免税消费券人民币8,000万元，带动消费13.8亿元，在100亿元免税店总销售额中占比13%。我们仍然认为，海南免税店销售额的可持续性将在很大程度上取决于未来政府消费券的发放力度和连续性。对于新秀丽，我们在静默期（4月13日）前与管理层的沟通中了解到，近几周美国/欧洲的销售有所放缓，这与在我们此前关于中东冲突迄今影响几何的报告（4月2日所述，虽然燃油附加费上涨以及由此导致的机票价格上涨可能会影响整体消部分客流从长途目的地转向短途，但这些公司近几周并未观察到明显的需求价和原材料价格持续上涨，则航空公司（燃油成本）和箱包公司（塑料、尼能会受到更大影响，不过后者仍有4-5个月的库存，表明未来1-2个季度毛利率可能保持稳定。对携程的反垄断调查方面，调查仍在进行中，普遍预计将在3-6个月内结束。在线旅特牌/金牌酒店标识）。我们追踪的月活用户(MAU)数据显示，携程/同程旅行的移动应用均保持稳定增长，同比增幅分别为高个位数/约20%（户补贴。同时，T的海外平台今年以来增长势头强劲，增幅达80-90%，尤其是在泰国、韩国和香港(图表28-图表31)。板块偏好和个股亮点：在覆盖范围内的旅游和休闲股中，虽然我们给予（华住和亚朵）估值仍然不高、表明若商务旅行复苏则股价仍有进一步上现在认为在线旅行社和澳门博彩股更具价值，其中携程2026年预期市盈率为12倍，澳门博彩股EV/EBITDA和市盈率则平均为8倍和11倍，二者估值均接近历史区间低端。对于携程而言，无论调查结果如何，我们预计调查的结束将消除股价面临的不确定因对于澳门博彩股，考虑到投资者担心从6月起的GGR高基数将导致今年增速放缓，我们预计本轮情绪后相关股票或迎来修复。我们仍有理由对未来GGR前景保持乐观，包括人民币兑港元/澳门元升值、其他长途目的地的旅客分流减少等。我们维持对级，并将关注海南免税销售势头的可持续性，尤其是在旺季过后。新秀丽估值2026年预期市盈率为9倍，股息收益率为5.3%，但利润率/盈利可能面临下行风险，具体取决于中东冲突持续的时长。对于航空公司而言，自霍尔木兹海峡关闭以累了该板块近期表现。我们认为，航空公司盈利可能因油价上涨而面临2026年4月14日22026年4月14日3YoYYoY图表1:Chinatravel&leisuretrendssummaryYoYYoYTrailing3monthsLeisurecategoryLatestperiodLatestperiodIndicatorValueUnitMainlandChineseoutboundbydestinationTotaloutboundTrailing3monthsLeisurecategoryLatestperiodLatestperiodIndicatorValueUnitMainlandChineseoutboundbydestinationTotaloutbound(toAsia)Feb-26'00010,81640%9%HongKongFeb-26'0004,24853%17%MacauFeb-26'0003,29144%20%SingaporeFeb-26'00043261%5%MalaysiaFeb-26'00039037%7%DOMESTICTRAVELMajorairportdomesticpassengersShanghaiPudongFeb-26mn4.111%7%BeijingCapitalFeb-26mn4.69%7%GuangzhouBaiyunFeb-26mn5.916%9%ShenzhenFeb-26mn5.27%6%TRAVELHotelsSectorRevPARMar-264%3%SectorADRMar-268%2%SectorOcc.Mar-26-2ppt1pptDeterioratingMixedImprovingDuty-freeHainanDFSstoresalesMar-26Rmbmn4,52525%28%IndicatorPassengerscarriedbymodeTrailing3monthsLeisurecategoryLatestperiodLatestperiodValueUnitAirFeb-26mn6110%9%RailwayFeb-26mn40811%12%MotorwayFeb-26mnn.a.n.a.n.a.PhilippinesFeb-26'00052133%44%CambodiaFeb-26'00014625%23%AustraliaFeb-26'00013914%-2%KoreaFeb-26'00048656%34%TaiwanFeb-26'0005828%-5%JapanFeb-26'000396-45%-52%ThailandFeb-26'00067882%-8%VietnamFeb-26'00046322%5%NewZealandFeb-26'0003581%15%HKretailsales(vs.FY18)Feb-26HKDmn35,05019%10%JapanDuty-freesalesFeb-26¥bn45-16%-17%KoreanDuty-freesalesFeb-26USDmn487-8%-6%MoviesMovieboxofficerevenueMar-26KoreanDuty-freesalesFeb-26USDmn487-8%-6%MoviesMovieboxofficerevenueMar-26Rmbmn2,12210%-51%MacauTotalGGRMar-26MOPmn22,61215%14%VIPGGRMar-26MOPmn4,50315%15%Mass&slotGGRMar-26MOPmn18,10915%14%TotalvisitationFeb-26'0004,17333%16%OnlineactivitiestimespentShort-formvideo(SFV)Feb-2612%14%GamesFeb-2620%11%12%MainlandChinasubtotalFeb-26'0003,29144%20%12%MainlandChinasubtotalFeb-26'0003,29144%20%HOBBIES&SPORTSGAMBLEPetsPetfoodonlinesalesFeb-26Rmbmn0-10%-9%Sportswear(incl.shoes)onlinesalesAdidasFeb-26NikeFeb-26-1%LiNingFeb-2627%23%IVSFeb-26'0002,03253%22%PackagedtourFeb-26'000120-15%-23%MainlandChinaothersFeb-26'0001,13839%25%HongKongFeb-26'0005912%1%OthersFeb-26'0002905%13%21%Anta21%AntaFeb-2630%14%86%44%ASEANPriorquarterCambodia:NagatotalGGR4Q25US$mn15921%57%MalaysiatotalGGR4Q25MYRmn1,8811%22%SingaporetotalGGR4Q25S$mn2,32617%48%RestaurantsHaidilaoaveragetableturnFeb-268%1%XiabuxiabuSSSGFeb-26n.a.n.a.TaiErSSSGFeb-26n.a.n.a.Wine/spiritsonlinesalesWineFeb-260%0%BeerFeb-2619%-4%SnacksonlineSnacksonlinesalesSnacksoverallFeb-2634%-15%资料来源：国家统计局,政府网站,CEIC,STR,Taosj,公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部2026年4月14日495%5%0%81 92%*AirlinesareusingDomestictravel-Healthytrafficgrowthledbyleisuredemandwhilebusinesstravellagged图表3:Total(Domestic+Int’l.)weeklypassengernumberistrackingat+5%YoY(+16%vs.2019)Totalweeklypassengernumber21-Apr-2521-Apr-2531-May-2520-Jun-2510-Jul-2530-Jul-2519-Aug-2508-Sep-2528-Sep-2518-Oct-2507-Nov-2527-Nov-2517-Dec-2506-Jan-2626-Jan-2615-Feb-2607-Mar-2627-Mar-26Note:ReferringtoChinesecarriersonly.Lastestshows6-daydatafromApr1toApr6,20265%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%20.08.06.04.02.00.02025-26Paxno(mn)YoY(RHS)资料来源：FlightMaster图表5:Totaldomesticvisitationgrowthacceleratedto+6.8%yoyduringChingMingTotaltourismrevenueYoY%TotaltourismrevenueYoY%8.0%6.7%5.9%5.7%5.5%.0%-0.2%TotaldomesticvisitationYoY%12.7%5.7%1.6%0.2%1-0.6%15%13%11%9%7%5%3%-1%-3%6.8%6.6%-0.2%7.6%6.3%4.7%1.7%8.1%7.0%6.3%ASPYoY%6.3%0.4%5.9%0.4%5.9%1.0%6.0%0.9%6.4%1.5%7.0%资料来源：MinistryofCultureandTourism,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表7:Domesticticketprice(incl.fuelsurcharge)istrackingat+14%YoY(-7%vs.2019)fortheweekofApr1-6Domesticticketprice(incl.fuelsurcharge)30-Dec-2413-Jan-2527-Jan-2510-Feb-2524-Feb-2530-Dec-2413-Jan-2527-Jan-2510-Feb-2524-Feb-2510-Mar-2524-Mar-257-Apr-2521-Apr-255-May-2519-May-252-Jun-2516-Jun-2530-Jun-2514-Jul-2528-Jul-2511-Aug-2525-Aug-258-Sep-2522-Sep-256-Oct-2520-Oct-253-Nov-2517-Nov-251-Dec-2515-Dec-2529-Dec-2512-Jan-2626-Jan-269-Feb-2623-Feb-269-Mar-26Domesticticketprice(incl.fuelsurcharge)vs.19(RHS)YoY(RHS)1,00090080070060050040020%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%0%资料来源：FlightMaster图表4:DomesticairandrailwaytrafficYoY(%)40%DomesticairtrafficYoY(%)30%10%0%-10%RailwayRailwaytrafficYoY(%)40%30%9%20%9%10%0%-10%Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26资料来源：MinistryofTransport图表6:ChinaservicePMIChinaservicePMIServiceServicePMI_BusinessactivityServicePMI_Businessexpectation60.058.056.054.052.050.048.0资料来源：国家统计局,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表8:Domesticticketprice(excl.fuelsurcharge)istrackingflattishYoY(-10%vs.2019)fortheweekofApr1-6Domesticticketprice(excl.fuelsurcharge)27-Jan-2524-Feb-2524-Mar-257-Apr-2527-Jan-2524-Feb-2524-Mar-257-Apr-255-May-252-Jun-2530-Jun-2528-Jul-2525-Aug-258-Sep-2522-Sep-2520-Oct-253-Nov-2529-Dec-2526-Jan-269-Feb-2623-Feb-269-Mar-2620%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%450Domesticticketprice(excl.fuelsurcharge)YoY(RHS)资料来源：FlightMaster2026年4月14日52026年4月14日6图表10:MainlandChineseoutboundgrowthbydestinations图表10:MainlandChineseoutboundgrowthbydestinationsTotalTotal图表9:Int’lflightsnumberfurtherincreased+2%yoyrecoveringto90%of2019levelInternationalflightnumbervs.2019(%)1-Mar1-May20221-Mar1-May2022vs.20192023vs.20192024vs.20192025vs.20192026vs.20192023-2025dataadjustedtocompareagainstChunyun(Springfestivaltravelrush)datesonlike-for-like0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%-80%-90%-100%Note:LatestdataasofApr07,2026.Datareferringto7-dayaverage.Internationalflightnumbervs.basis.资料来源：FlightMaster,高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：Immigrationdepartment,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchInt’lflightsnumberfurtherincreased+9%yoyrecoveringto75%of2019levelRegionalflightnumbervs.2019(%)RRilflihtb2019(%)egona-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%-80%-90%-100%numervs.2022vs.2019-25%2025vs.2019Note:Latestdataasof2023vs.20192026vs.20192024vs.2019g2023-2025dataadjustedtocompareagainstChunyun(Springfestiva资料来源：FlightMaster,高盛全球投资研究部图表11:Majorint’lrouteairfareindexMajorinternationalrouteMajorinternationalroutepriceindex(7dma)170202620252024150130+37%1109070501-Jan1-Feb1-Mar1-Apr1-May1-Jun1-Jul1-Aug1-Sep1-Oct1-Nov1-DecNote:Dataasof13-Apr-2026.LabelshowinglatestYoY%figure.资料来源：Ctrip,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年4月14日7图表12:AirseatcapacityrecoverybyoutbounddestinationAirAirseatcapacityfromChinaMainlandtodestinationregionsvs.19(7dma)Apr07vs.2019May'26endvs.2019Apr07YoY%(RHS)May'26endYoY%(RHS)80%60%40%20%0%161%169%46%125%132%126%21%121%109%20%80%60%40%20%0%161%169%46%125%132%126%21%121%109%20%25%11%117%98%96%30%9%88%84%11%18%9%6%80%84%77%26%31%19%16%57%55%54%.50%.51%3%2%55%23%4%60%40%20%.2%0%56%-20%43%-40%-60%Note:HongKongreferstovs.2018data.5%资料来源：OAG,高盛全球投资研究部2026年4月14日8图表13:Bydestination,Philippines/Korea/HongKongsawstrongergrowthyoyMainlandChineseoutboundtravelmonthlytrendQuarter1Q25Month/YearJan-25Macau2,750Singapore376Malaysia426Philippines31Cambodia68AustraliaKorea346Taiwan61Japan981Thailand663Vietnam575HK3,726NZ36AsiaTotal 10,154USA1Q25Feb-252,29226828522312457233723812,7697,728921Q25Mar-252,16425671398486622976312,750207,6062Q25Apr-252,1262082652074426487653173682,814217,553992Q25May-252,4402423102267467627903104083,1248,3592Q25Jun-251,9963119860461467983073652,6117,2803Q25Jul-252,56341447626584549754213913,510229,6493Q25Aug-253,258398464239799584701,0194104144,2232111,0802003Q25Sep-251,9902072942183487437763213622,458207,1664Q25Oct-252,5352263162578453567163574333,4528,7764Q25Nov-252,3972042782075364495633274673,041287,917944Q25Dec-252,5072859783382553303724883,354298,1721Q26Jan-262,705272352288278405473854004593,646258,8851Q26Feb-263,29143239052486583966784634,2483510,816FY26(2M)5,996704742802282188911057821,0789237,8946019,700284YoY%Jan-2533.8%78.3%92.9%-7.4%45.4%61.1%23.7%99.2%135.7%30.3%137.4%24.8%73.6%42.6%29.3%Feb-25-6.4%-18.0%-8.2%-54.4%84.1%-18.1%-9.2%20.5%57.3%-44.9%28.9%-14.7%-48.7%-8.5%-11.1%Mar-2521.1%-24.5%12.3%-28.8%27.3%21.9%1.7%59.9%46.2%-48.2%79.1%11.4%18.3%13.3%-0.8%Apr-2522.4%-5.8%34.4%-36.7%43.8%27.1%3.7%68.4%43.4%-46.7%2.8%13.3%-1.2%12.0%0.1%May-2531.4%9.0%35.4%-20.5%54.8%22.2%24.1%104.1%44.8%-44.5%14.1%18.9%16.8%20.0%-2.2%Jun-2520.8%-8.8%17.5%-15.5%54.4%8.1%21.4%49.0%19.9%-41.9%27.5%11.5%-15.5%11.6%-8.3%Jul-2517.4%0.4%15.8%-10.4%35.0%8.7%33.0%50.8%25.5%-38.9%56.9%11.8%-14.4%12.6%-13.8%Aug-2518.4%-1.2%9.2%8.4%30.2%25.7%21.3%87.5%36.6%-37.7%34.9%15.4%9.2%14.7%-8.3%Sep-2514.1%-4.7%19.5%7.4%51.5%12.9%22.1%35.5%18.9%-31.6%40.2%7.1%-1.5%10.3%-10.9%Oct-2512.0%-3.6%8.8%26.0%32.1%27.7%21.5%57.1%22.8%-22.3%41.9%10.0%9.6%11.6%-3.3%Nov-2521.9%16.5%28.5%16.7%34.1%33.5%29.0%-0.1%3.0%-32.4%37.6%18.9%37.7%16.7%-6.9%Dec-2522.6%-10.7%14.4%22.9%22.2%17.8%30.5%-9.4%-45.3%-30.4%25.7%8.2%29.0%6.8%-10.0%Jan-26-1.6%-27.8%-17.3%-10.4%20.0%-31.6%17.0%-23.8%-60.7%-39.6%-20.1%-2.2%-30.2%-12.5%-19.7%Feb-2643.6%61.3%36.9%132.8%25.4%13.6%55.6%27.8%-45.2%82.4%21.6%53.4%81.1%40.0%35.8%FY26(2M)18.9%9.3%4.4%49.6%23.4%-8.2%35.3%-1.8%-54.1%4.2%-3.5%21.5%9.0%10.2%-2.1%vs.FY19Jan-259.8%17.4%55.5%-76.4%-62.7%-19.7%-11.8%-74.4%30.0%-38.0%53.9%-32.8%-18.5%-3.7%-41.7%Feb-25-10.5%-21.1%-3.5%-87.2%-50.7%-40.5%-31.1%-84.0%-0.1%-65.1%-26.3%-39.3%-61.8%-31.6%-55.7%Mar-25-9.2%-37.7%-6.2%-87.7%-61.6%-42.9%-18.4%-82.1%-4.3%-69.8%61.3%-38.6%-50.2%-24.2%-40.2%Apr-25-9.1%-31.3%5.0%-85.6%-50.2%-23.3%-13.6%-84.5%5.4%-64.7%-13.7%-34.2%-41.6%-26.5%-46.2%May-250.6%-14.6%27.8%-83.3%-53.1%-28.9%-6.7%-80.5%4.5%-61.0%-4.7%-33.8%-41.5%-16.7%-48.4%Jun-25-5.0%-25.9%40.1%-85.6%-48.2%-25.4%-3.0%-82.3%-9.4%-63.4%4.9%-34.7%-38.8%-22.9%-52.5%Jul-25-0.3%6.4%54.6%-85.1%-51.6%-24.9%12.4%-83.1%-7.2%-57.2%-3.9%-20.3%-21.5%-16.2%-52.6%Aug-2523.1%0.3%49.6%-86.5%-51.6%-23.0%1.0%-75.4%1.8%-60.3%-14.1%-12.5%-30.0%-8.3%-46.4%Sep-253.4%-16.7%23.8%-86.4%-36.1%-16.1%-10.0%-62.6%-5.3%-62.3%-40.2%-33.8%-26.3%-24.6%-40.5%Oct-258.2%-12.6%17.9%-81.8%-31.2%-23.9%-20.3%-51.5%-2.0%-56.7%-27.5%-25.8%-38.0%-18.7%-34.9%Nov-2518.0%-18.1%10.9%-84.1%-32.5%-26.5%-28.0%-49.7%-25.1%-59.1%-30.6%-34.3%-26.6%-23.9%-29.2%Dec-2519.7%-36.7%56.9%-84.6%-46.4%-25.7%-24.9%-47.0%-53.5%-56.4%-12.7%-34.5%-22.6%-24.7%-35.7%Jan-268.0%-15.2%28.6%-78.9%-55.3%-45.1%3.2%-80.5%-48.9%-62.6%23.0%-34.2%-43.1%-15.7%-53.2%Feb-2628.6%27.3%32.2%-70.2%-38.2%-32.4%7.2%-79.5%-45.2%-36.3%-10.3%-6.9%-30.8%-4.3%-39.8%FY26(2M)18.4%6.7%30.4%-73.9%-45.6%-37.6%5.3%-79.9%-47.1%-49.5%3.7%-21.9%-36.5%-9.8%-48.1%Yellowhighlightsdenoteestimates资料来源：CEIC,高盛全球投资研究部2026年4月14日9Global®ionaltravel-SlowdownofUSandEuropeanoutboundtravelinFeb图表14:Globalairandcross-bordertravelmonthlytrackerAug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-263%3%5%3%4%3%5%5%5%4%3%2%3%4%4%0%6%5%4%7%6%6%6%6%1%0%3%0%0%0%3%4%3%7%6%8%6%5%6%5%8%8%6%4%9%8%5%6%4%7%9%7%4%7%9%4%-3%16%2%2%4%5%0%-5%5%4%-5%6%9%0%26%8%9%40%0%33%9%4%5%-11%-13%-11%-4%-7%-7%-12%5%5%-1%5%5%-2%-8%9%-4%4%-4%2%-10%-18%-3%-10%-2%-1%5%3%-38%-36%-35%-32%-43%-35%-37%7%-12%41%8%-7%3%-3%3%30%mnAug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26GlobalairtraveltrendUSoutbounndairpax5.0EuropeairflightseatcapacityAsiaairflightseatcapacity206200IATARPKbyregionWorldtotalNorthAmericaEuropeAPACLatinAmericaAsiacross-bordertraveltrendAsiacross-bordertraveltrendAsia11keymarketstotalinboundvisitation23.318.522.121.523.723.223.5Asia9keymarketstotalvisitation(ex-HK/Macau)14.012.414.013.915.514.714.1Japan3.5KoreaHongKong(vs.FY18)5.1Macau4.2Taiwan0.6Thailand3.3SingaporeMalaysia2.32.02.6Philippines0.6Cambodia0.4AustraliaAsiakeymarketsoutboundvisitationChina(toAsiakeymarketsonly)8.28.9JapanKorea3.4Note:YellowhighlightsareGSestimatesvs.FY19%Aug-25SepAug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-2622%25%29%27%30%27%27%6%5%8%5%7%2%4%6%2%4%2%3%7% -4%-8%-3%-6%-5%0%1% -5%-1%3%0%1%3%-1%36%44%56%44%43%34%33%-13%-30%-22%-30%-29%-10%-3% -35%-24%-19%-18%-17%-17%-35%-25%-23%-16%-14%-15%-12%-9% -7%-14%-10%-16%-21%-8%0%-2%0%6%6%31%18%-10%-35%-39%-32%-32%-19%-11%-18%-35%-28%-23%-30%-44%-39%-31% -5%0%-4%2%-4%-2%-7%-8%-25%-19%-24%-25%-16%-4%-22%-20%-25%-19%-24%-26%-29%0%9%24%31%资料来源：USGovernment,OAG,IATA,CEIC,高盛全球投资研究部Domestichotel-SequentialRevParimprovementamidmildsupplygrowth图表15:DomestichotelRevParweeklytracker(latestweekfromMar29toApr4)40%Apr-24Apr-24Apr-24Apr-24Aug-24Aug-24Feb-25 Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Jan-26 -资料来源：STR,高盛全球投资研究部图表16:DomestichotelsupplytrackerHotelreferstofacilitieswith>15roomsperproperty3913913953886%5%4504002502008%6%4%2%0%Hotels:Avg.rooms/facility>15YTD%8%395397370Hotelsupply(>15rooms/facility)3%2%2%9%4039%4023963979%4004033983743818%0%资料来源：InnHome,高盛全球投资研究部图表17:ChinadomesticRevParperformancebyoperatorsRevParRevParFY24FY251Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25HTHT-3%-1%3%-2%-8%-3%-4%-4%0%2%Atour-7%-3%-3%-6%-11%-6%-7%-4%-2%0%Jinjiang-6%-3%-2%-7%-8%-5%-5%-5%-2%0%BTG-4%-3%0%-6%-8%-3%-5%-6%-3%-1%IHG-5%-2%3%-7%-10%-3%-4%3%-7%-10%-3%-4%-3%-2%1%MAR-2%0%6%-4%-8%-2%-2%-1%0%3%Hyatt0%3%12%-3%12%-3%-7%0%0%2%2%7%ADRADRFY24FY251Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25HTHT-3%0%1%-3%-7%-2%-3%-2%1%4%Atour-6%-1%-3%-7%-8%-4%-3%-2%-2%1%Jinjiang-4%-2%1%-2%-10%-5%-7%-6%3%0%BTG-3%-2%1%-4%-5%0%-2%-3%-2%0%IHG-4%-2%1%-5%-7%-5%1%-5%-7%-5%-4%-3%-3%0%MAR-4%0%2%-5%-8%-3%-3%-1%0%3%Hyatt-4%-2%3%-5%-9%-5%3%-5%-9%-5%-5%-3%-2%3%OccOcc.FY24FY251Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25HTHT0.1(1.2)1.60.8(1.0)(0.5)(1.0)(1.6)(0.8)(1.6)AtourJinjiangAtourJinjiangHyatt(0.4)(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)(1.5)(1.2)(0.4)(0.4)0.52.83.20.8(1.7)(3.7)(2.1)(1.4)(0.0)(3.1)(2.0)0.4(0.1)(3.6)(0.9)0.2(0.8)(1.6)(1.8)(1.5)(1.8)(2.0)(0.8)(0.3)0.7(1.3)(2.1)0.4(0.1)0.7(0.2)2.7资料来源：STR,公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部2026年4月14日102026年4月14日11GMVTmall/TaobaoJDYoY%TotalPillowComfortersGMVTmall/TaobaoJDYoY%TotalPillowComforters图表18:HotelnetworkexpansionbychainoperatorsDomestichotelsNetadds400-JinjiangATATJinjiangATATJinjiangATATJinjiangATATJinjiangATATJinjiangATATJinjiangATATJinjiangATAT45kJinjiangJinjiangk480.4901Q252Q253Q图表19:AtouronlineretailGMVtracker349%-19%-191%-44%2025-1055%45%29%2025-1152%43%29%409%404%2026-0368%90%-31%461%321% TotalTotal