瑞银-全球贵金属评论：揭秘官方领域黄金流动-Global Precious Metals Comment：Demystifying official sector gold flows-20260505

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GlobalResearch

5May2026

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment

Demystifyingofficialsectorgoldflows

DidcentralbanksreallybuythatmuchgoldinQ1?

LatestdatafromtheWorldGoldCouncil(WGC)didnotvalidateearlierfearsamongmarketparticipantsofbroad-basedliquidationfromcentralbanks.InitsQ12026report,theWGCestimatesshowedthatcentralbanksandotherofficialinstitutionsbought244tonnesofgoldonanetbasis,a3%year-on-yearincrease,eventhoughsellingactivitybecamemorevisibleduringthequarter.Thisoutcomewasstrongerthanmanymarketparticipantsexpected.Whilewedidanticipatethatthemulti-yeartrendofofficialsectorgoldpurchaseswouldcontinue,wewerealsosurprisedbythemagnitude.

Expansionofofficialsectorparticipationmaybesupportingflows

Growthintheassetsofotherofficialinstitutionsandthebroadeningofparticipationwithinthesectorsuggestthatbuyingmaynotbelimitedtocentralbanksalone.Moreover,whilesomeofthemostactivecentralbankbuyersmayhaveslowedthepaceofaccumulationoverthepastfewyears,thereremainsscopeforinstitutionsthathavebeeninactiveforlongperiodstostepuppurchases,particularlyinanenvironmentwhereglobaltradeandpoliticalrelationshipsareshiftingandgeopoliticalriskremainselevated.

Whydoofficialsectorflowsmatter?

Marketreactionsandconversationsinthepastfewmonthsunderscorewhyofficialsectorflowsremainsoimportanttomarketpsychology.Evenifcentralbanksarenotthemarginalprice-settersdaytoday,persistentnetbuyingcanhelpanchormarketconfidence,helpinginvestorsgainconvictiontomaintainoraddexposurethroughperiodsofdollarstrengthandelevatedrealrates.Italsoillustrateshowheadlinesaroundsellingcanhaveanoutsizedimpact.Specifically,aperceivedshiftfromsteadyaccumulationtonetliquidationwouldnotjustchangephysicalbalances;itwouldchallengeakeystabilisingassumptioningold'snarrativeandaffectinvestorsentiment.

Goldpricetostaychoppyfornow;downsideriskspresentopportunities

Gold'snegativerelationshipwithUSrealratesandthedollarhasbecomestrongeroflate.Meanwhile,goldhasbeenmovingwithastrongpositivecorrelationwithequitiesandastrongnegativerelationshipwithoil.Fornow,itisdifficulttoseewhatcouldbreakgoldoutoftherecentrange.Whileitisencouragingtoseespeculativepositionsquitemuted,thereisalsolittleevidenceofappetitetorebuildexposuremateriallyatthemoment,evenattheselowerpricelevels.Physicalmarketstendtobequieterduringthisquarter,thoughitwillbeinterestingtoseehowparticipantsinChinawillreacttogoldpricescloserto$4500whentheyreturnfromholidayslaterthisweek.

Weexpectsupporttocomeinaroundthe$4500psychologicalarea,andwouldviewanynear-termdownsideasopportunitiestograduallybuildpositions.Thelikelydragofhigherenergypricesongrowthandtheanticipatedcompressionofrealratesaheadshouldbesupportiveforhighergoldprices.Whilenear-termpricerisksremaintothedownside,wethinkthepotentialforgoldtotradehigherthanourbaselineforecastsoverthemedium-tolong-termareincreasing.

FX

Global

JoniTeves

Strategist

joni.teves@

+65-64956851

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAG,SingaporeBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,iNcLuDiNGiNFoRmATioNoNTHEQuANTiTATivEREsEARcHREviEwpuBLisHEDByUBS,BEGiNoNpAGE7.

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment5May2026a§2

GlobalPreciousMetalsCommentUBSResearch

Goldmarketparticipantshavebeenparticularlyfocusedonofficialsectorflowsinrecentyears,ascentralbankandothersovereignpurchaseshavebecomeaprominentpillarofthebullishnarrative.Yetitisimportanttodistinguishbetweenafactorthatdrivespriceshigherandonethatsupportsthemarket’sabilitytosustainanuptrend.Investorflows,drivenbymacrofactors,aremainlyresponsibleforgoldpriceaction,especiallyinthenearterm.Thisiscertainlythecaseatthemoment,withfinancialmarketsanticipatingtheimpactofhigherenergypricesoninflationandthecorrespondingread-throughtomonetarypolicy.

Gold'snegativerelationshipwithUSrealratesandthedollarhasbecomestrongeroflate.Meanwhile,goldhasbeenmovingwithastrongpositivecorrelationwithequitiesandastrongnegativerelationshipwithoil.Fornow,itisdifficulttoseewhatcouldbreakgoldoutoftherecentrange.Whileitisencouragingtoseespeculativepositionsquitemuted,thereisalsolittleevidenceofappetitetorebuildexposuremateriallyatthemoment,evenattheselowerpricelevels.Physicalmarketsalsotendtobequieterduringthisquarter,thoughitwillbeinterestingtoseehowparticipantsinChinawillreacttogoldpricescloserto$4500whentheyreturnfromholidayslaterthisweek.

Withregardstoofficialsectorbuying,weareoftheviewthatthishasnotpushedpriceshigherperse;rather,ithashelpedunderpinthemarketbyabsorbingsupply,reducingavailableliquidity,andprovidingasteadierfloorduringperiodswhentraditionalmacroheadwindswouldotherwisehavetriggereddeeperdrawdowns.Thatunderlyingsupporthas,inturn,helpedenablethebroaderuptrendtopersist.

Thisdistinctionmattersbecausegoldisultimatelypricedatthemargin,whereinvestorpositioning,realyields,andcurrencydynamicstendtobedecisiveforshort-termdirection.Officialinstitutions,bycontrast,typicallyoperatewithlongerhorizonsandlesssensitivitytonear-termopportunitycost.Theiractivitythereforefunctionsmorelikeastructuralstabiliserthanatacticalcatalyst:persistentnetbuyingcancushionweakness,discourageaggressiveshort-selling,andcontributetoahighertradingrangeevenifitdoesnotsingle-handedlygeneratenewhighs.

Thisyear,however,theofficialsectornarrativebrieflyflippedfromsupporttorisk.AstheconflictintheMiddleEasterupted,goldpricescameunderpressureamidasurgeinoilpricesthatfuelledexpectationsofhigherinflationand,byextension,amorehawkishFedreactionfunction.TheriseintheUSdollarandUSrealratesbecameameaningfulheadwindforgold,reassertingtheclassicmacrolinkagesthattendtoweighonnon-yieldingassetswhentheopportunitycostofholdingthemincreases.

Againstthatbackdrop,investorsbegantoworrythatsomecentralbanks—especiallyintheMiddleEast—mighthavetosellpartoftheirgoldholdingstoraisedollars.Thelogicwasstraightforward:higherenergypricesandheightenedgeopoliticaluncertaintycancoincidewithcurrencypressures,anddefendingapegorstabilisingaweakerexchangerateoftenrequiresreadilydeployablehardcurrencyreserves.Atthesametime,governmentsfacingwiderfiscaldeficitsmayseekadditionalfundingsources.Inamarketwhereofficialsectorbuyinghadbeenviewedasakeybackstop,thepossibilityofsubstantialofficialsellingwasperceivedasapotentialregimeshift.

ThosefearsintensifiedwhenheadlinessuggestedthattheCentralBankoftheRepublicofTürkiye(CBRT)hadsoldaround50tonnesofgold.Historicalexperiencemattershere:Türkiyehassold(andmobilised)goldinthepastforarangeofreasons,andsomepriorepisodeshavecoincidedwithwideningbudgetdeficits.Atthesametime,recentvolumeslookrelativelysmallfromahistoricalaswellasglobalcontextand,crucially,reporteddeclinesinofficialholdingscanreflectamixofoutrightsalesandgoldswapsratherthanjustliquidation.

CBRTalsousesgoldasapolicytoolindomesticliquiditymanagement,meaningthatpartsoftheflowcanrepresentcommercialbankactivity.Moredetailisrequiredtoproperlydisaggregate“officialsector”flowsandavoidover-interpretingheadlinereservechanges.Türkiye’sgoldimportsfromSwitzerland–akeyglobalhubforpreciousmetalsrefininganddistribution–havebeenrelativelysteadyoverthepastcoupleofyears.Thatsteadinesssitsuneasilywithasimple“forcedseller”narrativeandreinforcestheideathataportionofreportedofficial-sectormovementsmaybelinkedtobalance-sheetoperations(includingswaps)anddomesticmarketfunctioningratherthana

Therehasbeenalotoffocuson

officialsectorgoldflows,buttheysupportratherthandriveprices.

Gold'straditionalmacrorelationshipshavebeenstrongeroflate.

Investorshavebeenparticularlyconcernedabouttheprospectofcentralbankgoldsellinginrecentmonths.

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment5May2026婚§3

sustained,structuralshifttowardnetofficialliquidation.

LookingbeyondTürkiye,thebroaderpictureforMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)centralbankshasbeenoneofsteadyaccumulationsincearound2012.Theregionsawanotablestepupin2022,amidsizeablepurchasesbyIraq,Qatar,theUAEandEgypt,anditwasalsoduringthisperiodthatOmanbeganaccumulatinggoldreservesafterpreviouslyholdingnone.Morerecently,thepaceofadditionsappearstohaveslowed,likelyinpartbecausethestrongrallyingoldhasmechanicallyliftedtheshareofgoldintotalreserves—animportantconsiderationforreservemanagersbalancingdiversificationgoalsagainstconcentrationriskandliquidityneeds.

Estimateofofficialsectorgoldflows,however,didnotvalidatefearsofbroad-basedliquidation.InitsGoldDemandTrendsreportforQ12026,theWorldGoldCouncilreportedthatcentralbanksbought244tonnesofgoldonanetbasis,a3%year-on-yearincrease,eventhoughsellingactivitybecamemorevisibleduringthequarter.Takenatfacevalue,thisoutcomewasstrongerthanmanymarketparticipantsexpected.Whilewedidanticipatethatthemulti-yeartrendofofficialsectorgoldpurchaseswouldcontinue,weweresurprisedbythemagnitude,havingexpectedflattoslightlylowerbuyingversusthesameperiodin2025.AndalthoughQ1purchaseswereslightlybelowtheaverageoverthepastseveralquarters,theyremainclearlyhigherthanpre-2022levels.Thissupportstheviewthattheofficialsectorgolddemandtrendremainsintact.

Recentmarketreactionsunderscorewhyofficialsectorflowsremainsoimportanttomarketpsychology.Evenifcentralbanksarenotthemarginalprice-settersdaytoday,persistentnetbuyingcanhelpanchormarketconfidence,helpinginvestorsgainconvictiontomaintainoraddexposurethroughperiodsofdollarstrengthandelevatedrealrates.Italsoillustrateshowheadlinesaroundsellingcanhaveanoutsizedimpact:aperceivedshiftfromsteadyaccumulationtonetliquidationwouldnotjustchangephysicalbalances;itwouldchallengeakeystabilisingassumptionembeddedingold’snarrative.

Finally,whiletheQ1outcomemayhavesurprisedthemarket,itisnotimplausiblethatofficialsectordemandwasstrongerthanexpected.Growthintheassetsofotherofficialinstitutionsandthebroaderexpansionofgold’sinvestorbasesuggestthatbuyingisnotlimitedtocentralbanksalone.Moreover,whilesomeofthemostactivebuyersmayhaveslowedthepaceofaccumulation,thereremainsscopeforinstitutionsthathavebeeninactiveforlongperiodstostepuppurchasesaspartofdiversificationorlong-termreservestrategy—particularlyinanenvironmentwhereglobaltradeandpoliticalrelationshipsareshiftingandgeopoliticalriskremainselevated.

LatestdatafromtheWorldGold

Councilshowinga3%y/yincreaseinofficialsectorgoldbuyingcameasasurprise.

Figure1:Gold'straditionalmacrorelationshipshavebecomestrongeroflate

Source:Bloomberg,UBS.

Figure2:Gold'scorrelationswithequitiesandoildiverge

Source:Bloomberg,UBS.

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment5May2026婚§4

Figure3:DeclinesinTurkey'sgoldreservestendtocoincidewithperiodsofwideningbudgetdeficits

Source:Bloomberg,IMF,WGC,UBS.

Figure5:MENAcentralbankgoldholdingshavebeenrisingsince2012

Source:IMF,WGC,UBS.

Figure7:Thesharprallyingoldpricesmechanicallylifted%goldtototalreservesintheregion,despitelowerpurchasevolumes

Source:Bloomberg,IMF,WGC,UBS.*Note:simpleaverage

Figure4:Turkey'snetimportsofgoldfromSwitzerlandhavebeenrelativelystable

Source:IMF,SwissCustoms,WGC,UBS.

Figure6:Theincreaseingoldreservesintheregionsloweddownin2025

Source:IMF,WGC,UBS.

Figure8:EstimatedofficialsectorgoldpurchasesinQ12026are3%highery/yandonlyslightlybelowtherecentaverage

Source:IMF,WGC,UBS.

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment5May2026婚§5

Figure9:Totalofficialsectorassetshavegrownsince2015,increasingthepotentialforbuildinggoldallocationstodiversifyreserves

Source:Industryestimates,UBS.

Figure11:Topcentralbankgoldbuyerssofarin2026aredifferentfrominpreviousyears

Source:IMF,WGC,UBS.

Figure10:Saudireportedalargeincreaseingoldreservesin2007,buthavekeptholdingsbroadlyunchangedsince

Source:IMF,WGC,UBS.

Figure12:Thechangingcompositionoftopcentralbankbuyerssuggeststhatwideningparticipationcanhelpoffsetslowerpurchases

Source:IMF,WGC,UBS.

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment5May2026婚§6

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Risksofmulti-assetinvestingincludebutarenotlimitedtomarketrisk,creditrisk,interestraterisk,andforeignexchangerisk.Correlationsofreturnsamongdifferentassetclassesmaydeviatefromhistoricalpatterns.Geopoliticaleventsandpolicyshocksposerisksthatcanreduceassetreturns.Valuationsmaybeadverselyaffectedduringtimesofhighmarketvolatility,thinliquidity,andeconomicdislocation.Alloptionsdiscussionsare'over-the-counter'.Lossesonsomeoptionstradesarepotentiallyunlimitedunlesshedged/neutralised.

GlobalPreciousMetalsComment5May2026婚§7

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