2026年4月金融数据点评：如何接受信贷负增长

表1：社融、存贷款、货币同比增速同比增速2026/42026/32026/22026/12025/122025/112025/102025/92025/82025/7社融7.8%7.9%8.2%8.2%8.3%8.5%8.5%8.7%8.8%9.0%扣政府债5.8%5.9%6.1%5.9%6.1%6.0%5.9%5.9%5.9%6.0%各项贷款5.6%5.7%6.0%6.1%6.4%6.4%6.5%6.6%6.8%6.9%各项存款8.9%8.6%8.7%9.9%8.7%7.7%8.0%8.0%8.6%8.7%非财政存款8.8%8.7%8.8%9.4%8.7%7.7%8.0%8.0%8.4%8.4%M28.6%8.5%9.0%9.0%8.5%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.8%8.8%新M15.0%5.1%5.9%4.9%3.8%4.9%6.2%7.2%6.0%5.6%M1-M2-3.6%-3.4%-3.1%-4.1%-4.7%-3.1%-2.0%-1.2%-2.8%-3.2%老M14.5%4.2%8.0%2.0%3.8%5.4%6.2%5.8%4.9%M012.2%12.5%14.1%2.7%10.2%10.6%10.6%11.5%11.7%11.8%单位活期2.6%1.6%9.5%0.1%2.2%4.1%5.0%4.4%3.3%，国联民生证券研究所图1：新老口径M1增速 新M1 老M130.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%2011-052011-102011-052011-102012-032012-082013-012013-062013-112014-042014-092015-022015-072015-122016-052016-102017-032017-082018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-062023-112024-042024-092025-022025-072025-12-5.0%-10.0%，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款人民币贷款人民币贷款+政府债人民币贷款+政府债-财政存款M2M0新M1单位&居民活期202031,02727,67016,23917,00020,35719,82812,610-1,537-15,755-14,218202118,57014,83112,84014,70018,43912,662-14,381-740-24,053-23,31220229,3275,4153,6166,45410,3669,9562,023485-18,667-19,151202312,2497,7014,4317,18811,7366,708-6,097313-22,771-23,0852024-6582793,3497,3006,3635,382-36,010100-42,196-42,296202511,5991,8708842,80012,5298,819-8,815695-43,456-44,15120266,207-2,857-3,996-1008,9641,570-8,237417-47,403-47,820同比多增-5,392-4,727-4,880-2,900-3,565-7,249579-278-3,947-3,669，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融人民币贷款年份社会融资规模社融人民币贷款新增外币贷款新增委托贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资非金融企业境内股票融资政府债券其他202031,02716,239910-579235779,2373153,357948202118,57012,840-272-213-1,328-2,1523,6248143,7391,51820229,3273,616-760-2-615-2,5573,6521,1663,912915202312,2494,431-31983119-1,3452,9409934,5487992024-6583,349-31089142-4,4901,707186-937-394202511,599884-130-2-77-2,7942,3403919,7291,25820266,207-3,996184-284-130-5,2834,5358359,0641,282同比多增-5,392-4,880314-282-53-2,4892,195444-66524，国联民生证券研究所年份新增人民年份新增人民币贷款社融人民币贷款(投向实体)社融人民币贷款(扣票据）对公:中长期对公:短期对公:票据融资居民户:中长期居民户:短期非银行业金融机构贷款其他202017,00016,23912,3295,547-623,9104,3892,280404532202114,70012,84010,1296,605-2,1472,7114,9183651,53271620226,4543,616-1,5322,652-1,9485,148-314-1,8561,3791,39320237,1884,4313,1516,669-1,0991,280-1,156-1,25523003,349-5,0324,100-4,1008,381-1,666-3,5182,6071,49620252,800884-7,4572,500-4,8008,341-1,231-4,0191,6343752026-100-3,996-16,425-4,100-4,60012,429-3,408-4,4621,7452,296同比多增-2,900-4,880-8,968-6,6002004,088-2,177-4431111,921，国联民生证券研究所年份新增人民币存款年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款新增居民存款新增企业存款财政存款非银金融机构存款其他单位存款机关团体存款境外存款其他202012,7003,704-7,99611,7005298,571-104837-969282021-7,252-19,256-15,700-3,5565,7775,268959819150-92022909-8,242-7,032-1,2104106,7162,0251,71231302023-4,609-13,408-12,000-1,4085,0282,9128591,581-736132024-39,200-37,225-18,500-18,725981-3,300344-3975801612025-4,400-27,197-13,900-13,2973,71015,7103,3774,170-8354220262,700-31,900-19,400-12,5007,39424,7002,506同比多增7,100-4,703-5,5007973,6848,990-871，国联民生证券研究所年份居民贷款居民存款年份居民贷款居民存款居民部门净融资对公社融融资对公存款对公部门净融资政府债券财政存款政府部门净融资非银贷款款20206,669-7,99614,66519,30111,5967,7053,3575292,828-8,16720215,283-15,70020,9839,794-2,59712,3913,7395,777-2,038-3,7362022-2,170-7,0324,8629,2938158,4783,9124103,502-5,3372023-2,411-12,0009,58910,666-54911,2154,5485,028-480-7782024-5,184-18,50013,31610,195-18,38128,576-937981-1,9185,9072025-5,250-13,9008,6508,563-9,92018,4839,7293,7106,019-14,0762026-7,870-19,40011,5308,869-9,99418,8639,0647,3941,670-22,955同比多增-2,620-5,5002,880306-74380-6653,684-4,349-8,879，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款人民币贷款人民币贷款+政府债人民币贷款+政府债-财政存款M2M0新M1单位&居民活期2020142,137122,99988,75587,957107,095109,709107,0454,296-4,596-8,8922021121,459111,13591,94691,400101,72497,58075,3111,489-22,381-23,8702022129,821110,08786,97989,854109,588105,752116,8114,801-14,203-19,0042023157,682134,841111,416113,188136,029128,027144,1491,198-14,382-15,5802024127,370114,72394,443101,900114,547116,42189,2293,866-24,737-28,6032025163,437114,97097,840100,600149,067137,167116,4173,193-21,662-24,8552026154,500110,00085,00085,900130,400118,400127,4526,239-9,347-15,585同比多增-8,937-4,970-12,840-14,700-18,667-18,76711,0353,04612,3159,269，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融口径人民币贷款年份社会融资规模社融口径人民币贷款新增外币贷款新增委托贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资非金融企业境内股票融资政府债券其他2020142,13788,7552,820-1,549-10683727,0291,57119,1383,6422021121,45991,9461,572-264-4,8971,09312,7043,28110,3245,7002022129,82186,979990459-2,305-1,76516,8504,14819,7344,7312023157,682111,416287765783,34111,5973,14222,8414,2152024127,37094,4431,213-9072,1261,01211,68794912,6474,2002025163,43797,840-1,098544542,5057,5911,35248,4676,2722026154,50085,0001,036-941351315,0002,00844,5007,381同比多增-8,937-12,8402,134-995-451-1,9927,409656-3,9671,109，国联民生证券研究所表9：历年前4月累计新增贷款结构（单位:亿元）年份新增人民币贷款社融口径人民币贷款(投向实体)对公:中长期对公:短期对公:票据融资居民户:中长期居民户:短期非银行业金融机构贷款其他202087,95788,75578,54035,94722,93810,21516,9891,771-1,3251,422202191,40091,94694,02051,3059,853-2,07424,7186,194-5501,954202289,85486,97973,80442,15220,35213,17510,386871,2982,4042023113,188111,416119,93973,46930,601-8,5238,2866,3981,3431,6142024101,90094,443101,06266,10025,600-6,6198,084504,9433,7422025100,60097,84094,94158,30030,3002,8997,601-2,4167683,148202685,90085,00083,57150,10036,7001,4291,199-6,102-1,9354,509同比多增-14,700-12,840-11,370-8,2006,400-1,470-6,402-3,686-2,7031,361，国联民生证券研究所年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款新增居民存款新增企业存款财政存款非银金融机构存款其他企业存款（主要机关团体存款）机关团体存款境外存款其他202093,30087,00456,70430,300-2,6144,8584,0523,2091,247-404202176,24850,11851,100-9824,14416,9685,0185,027702-7112022109,50983,85871,16812,6903,83612,4609,3559,876-7201992023149,291117,39287,00030,3928,00210,89912,99813,64734-684202473,20050,60067,100-16,500-1,87412,30012,17410,4772,091-3932025125,50082,40378,3004,10311,90018,80012,39712,691188-4822026140,00071,70057,40014,30012,00045,00011,300同比多增14,500-10,703-20,90010,19710026,200-1,097，国联民生证券研究所表11：历年前4月累计净金融债务增加（单位:亿元）年份居民贷款居民存款居民部门净融资对公社融融资对公存款对公部门净融资政府债券财政存款政府部门净融资非银贷款-非银存款202018,76056,704-37,94498,86534,35264,51319,138-2,61421,752-6,183202130,91251,100-20,18871,4804,03667,44410,3244,1446,180-17,518202210,47371,168-60,69595,82122,04573,77619,7343,83615,898-11,162202314,68487,000-72,316111,41643,39068,02622,8418,00214,839-9,55620248,13467,100-58,966100,149-4,326104,47512,647-1,87414,521-7,35720255,18578,300-73,11599,85216,50083,35248,46711,90036,567-18,0322026-4,90357,400-62,303105,33525,60079,73544,50012,00032,500-46,935同比多增-10,088-20,90010,8125,4839,100-3,617-3,967100-4,067-28,903，国联民生证券研究所图2：2026年4社融增量同比多增（亿元） 3,0000

314-282-282

2,195-53-53

444

24-665-2,000-3,000

-2,489-4,000

-4,880-5,392 ，国联民生证券研究所图3：2026年4信贷增量同比多增（亿元）4,0884,0001,9214,0884,0001,9212,0002000-443-2,000-2,177-4,000-2,900-6,000-4,880-6,600-8,000111-10,000

-8,968 ，国联民生证券研究所图4：2026年4月存款增量同比多增（亿元）10,000新增人民币存款 居民款 新增企业存款新增人民币存款 居民款 新增企业存款财政存款 非银金融机构存款其他单位存款居民存款 新增+企业存6,0004,0002,0000-2,000-4,00