摩根大通-中国锂概览：短期消息面加重锂板块压力-China Lithium Dashboard：Near-term newsflow adds pressure to lithium sector-20260604

AsiaPacificE

hqtutiys:R/e/swewr.ch

04June2026

ThismaterialisneitherintendedtobedistributedtoMainlandChinainvestorsnortoprovidesecuritiesinvestmentconsultancyserviceswithinthe

territoryofMainlandChina.Thismaterialoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofJ.P.Morgan.

ChinaLithiumDashboard

Near-termnewsflowaddspressuretolithiumsector

Lithiumcarbonatefuturesfell4%toRmb167k/ton3Jun,whileChineselithiumnamesdeclined0–2%(vs.HSI-1.9%),assentimentweakenedafterGFEXlithiumcarbonatewarehousereceiptshitarecordhigh.Althoughdownstreamdemandremainssolidandweraiseour2026–2028EearningsforecastsforTianqiandGanfeng(onhigherLTlithiumpriceassumptionsandstrongerlithiumcompoundandbatterybusinessmarginexpectations),wedonotexpectcommodity/equitysentimenttoreversenearterm.ThemarketstilllacksconsensusonlithiumS/D,leavingpriceslargelynews-flowdriven.Withrecentpositivecatalysts(i.e.,JiangxilepidoliteproductionsuspensionsandZimbabweexportcontrols)largelyplayedout,weseeriskskewedtowardsadversenewsflow(i.e.overseasminerestarts,asuddenJianxiaworestart,orhigher-than-expectedinvisiblelithiuminventory).WemaintainNeutralonGanfengandTianqi.

•RecentS/DmodelupdateandLTlithiumpriceuplift.OurregionalteamrecentlyupdatedlithiumS/DandraisedLTspodumeneandcarbonatepricestoUS$1,500/t&US$18,000/t(+15/20%),whilekeepingourSTpriceunchanged(linktoreport).Ondemand,therevisedmodelreflectsmateriallyhigherESSexpectations,up23%/25%in2026E/2027E,withEVbatteryforecastsbroadlyunchangedaslargerbatterysizesoffsetlowerEVunitassumptions.Onsupply,recentminerestartsinAustralia,Chile,ArgentinaandAfricamorethanoffsetmajordowngradeselsewhere,thoughJiangxilepidoliteremainsakeyswingfactor.CATL’sJianxiawomineisundergoingasandstoneore-disposalpriceassessmentaheadoftheEIAprocess,withbiddingscheduledforJune1–4andrestarttimingstillunclear.OtherJiangxilepidoliteminesunderlicenserenewalcouldseeproductiondisruptions/haltinJune–July,withresumptionlikelydelayeduntil2027.

•DestockingTrendContinues.SMMdataasofMay28(underitsnewinventorymethodology,whichexpandedtradercoverageandaddedaround36kttothereportedinventorybase)showeddomesticlithiumcarbonateinventoriescontinuedtodeclineto135.6kt,down1,617tWoW,withdrawdownsmainlyfromrefiners(down8%WoW),andtraders(down1%WoW),whiledownstreamproducerssawmodestrestocking(up2%WoW).

•Ganfeng/Tianqimodelupdate.Wereviseupour2026–2028earningsforecastsforGanfengandTianqiby15–22%and6–41%,respectively,reflectingupwardrevisionstoourLTlithiumprice,lithiumcompoundmargin,anddownstreamcostpass-throughassumptionsforthelithiumbatterybusiness.

EquityRatingsandPriceTargets

AsiaBasicMaterials

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

SabrinaLiu

(852)2800-8535

sabrina.liu@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

FrankieFong

(852)2800-8574

frankie.fong@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

Company

Ticker

MktCap

($mn)

Price

CCY

Price

Rating

PriceTarget

CurPrev

Cur

EndDate

PrevEndDate

GanfengLithium–A

002460CH

20,507

CNY

68.79

N

n/c

80.00

Dec-26

n/c

n/c

GanfengLithium–H

1772HK

15,578

HKD

60.55

N

n/c

70.00

Dec-26

n/c

n/c

TianqiLithium–A

002466CH

14,897

CNY

60.98

N

n/c

56.00

Dec-26

n/c

n/c

TianqiLithium–H

9696HK

10,014

HKD

47.50

N

n/c

52.00

Dec-26

n/c

n/c

Source:Companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof03Jun26.

Seepage27foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon.USanalystdisclosures.

2

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

04June2026

Pricemovessummary

Figure1:Chinalithiumpricemoves

Shareprices

Spot

1wkago

Change

%Change

YTD

%YTD

Tianqi-A(CNY)

61.3

66.4

-5.1

-7.7%

5.9

10.7%

Tianqi-H(HKD)

48.2

51.6

-3.3

-6.4%

-2.8

-5.5%

A/Hpremium

47.2%

48.7%

-1.5ppt

26.4ppt

Ganfeng-A(CNY)

69.0

75.0

-6.0

-8.0%

6.1

9.7%

Ganfeng-H(HKD)

61.6

66.8

-5.2

-7.8%

9.7

18.6%

A/Hpremium

29.8%

29.7%

0.1ppt

-5.1ppt

SHCOMPIndex

4,075

4,145

-70

-1.7%

106

2.7%

HSCEIIndex

8,763

8,577

186

2.2%

-151

-1.7%

Chinalithiumcompoundpricesandmargin

Spot

1wkago

Change

%Change

YTD

%YTD

LithiumCarbonate(CNY/t)

173,500

178,500

-5,000

-2.8%

54,500

45.8%

Externally-sourcedspodumenemargin

-1,013

-245

-768

-8,881

Externally-sourcedlepidolitemargin

-34,060

-35,835

1,775

-12,440

LithiumHydroxide(CNY/t)

166,000

166,000

0

0.0%

62,100

59.8%

Externally-sourcedspodumenemargin

10,818

7,598

3,220

4,669

Externally-sourcedlepidolitemargin

-18,280

-23,739

5,459

1,536

GFELithiumCarbonateFuture(Mostactive)(CNY/t)

178,900

175,960

2,940

1.7%

57,320

47.1%

Futurespreadoverspot

3.1%

-1.4%

4.5ppt

0.9ppt

Rawmaterials

Spot

1wkago

Change

%Change

YTD

%YTD

DomesticSpodumene6%(CNY/t)

17,382

17,847

-465

-2.6%

7,563

77.0%

ImportedSpodumene6%FOBAustralia(USD/t)

2,611

2,915

-304

-10.4%

1,181

82.6%

DomesticLepidolite1.5-2%(CNY/t)

3,840

3,995

-155

-3.9%

1,540

67.0%

DomesticLepidolite2-2.5%(CNY/t)

5,380

5,575

-195

-3.5%

1,915

55.3%

FX

Spot

1wkago

Change

%Change

YTD

%YTD

USDCNY

6.76

6.79

-2.2ppt

-0.3%

-22.4ppt

-3.2%

HKDCNY

0.86

0.87

-0.3ppt

-0.3%

-3.5ppt

-3.9%

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgancalculations.Dataasof3June2026.

Stockperformanceandlithiummargin

Figure2:TianqiandGanfengstockperformance

Rebasedto100onJan1,2025

e)

Tianqi-ATianqi-HGanfeng-AGanfeng-HLithiumfuture(Mostactiv

470

370

270

170

70

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgancalculations;dataasof3June2026.Note:Pastperformanceisnotanindicatoroffutureresults.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

04June2026

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

3

Figure3:TianqiandGanfengstockpricesvslithiumcarbonatespotprice

(x)

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

May-21

Sep-21

Jan-22

May-22

Sep-22

Jan-23

May-23

Sep-23

Jan-24

May-24

Sep-24

Jan-25

May-25

Sep-25

Jan-26

May-26

Rmb/t

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

LithiumCarbonatespotprice(RHS)Tianqi-Ashareprice/0.1kgLiCO2price

Ganfeng-Ashareprice/0.1kgLiCO2price

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgancalculations.Note:Pastperformanceisnotanindicatoroffutureresults.

Figure4:Chinalithiumcarbonateprice

600

550

500

450

400

Rmbk/t

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20222023202420252026

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan.

Figure5:Chinalithiumhydroxideprice

600

550

500

450

400

Rmbk/t

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20222023202420252026

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan.

4

Figure6:Guangzhoulithiumcarbonatefutures

Rmbk/t

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

May-26

Jun-26

190

170

150

130

110

90

70

50

MostrecentCont.4M

Cont.1M

Cont.5M

Cont.2M

Cont.6M

Cont.3MSpot

Source:Wind,J.P.Morgancalculations.

Figure7:Chinalithiumcarbonatespread(spodumenefeedstock)

Rmbk/t

300

200

100

0

(100)

(200)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20222023202420252026

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,SMM,J.P.Morgancalculations.

Figure8:Chinalithiumhydroxidespread(spodumenefeedstock)

Rmbk/t

325

275

225

175

125

75

25

(25)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20222023202420252026

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,SMM,J.P.Morgancalculations.

5

Figure9:Chinalithiumrefiningspread(lepidolitefeedstock)

Rmbk/t

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

(25)

(50)

(75)

LithiumCarbonateSpreadLithiumHydroxideSpread

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,SMM,J.P.Morgancalculations.

Rawmaterialpricetrend

Figure10:Chinaspodumene6%CIFprice

US$/t

6,500

5,500

4,500

3,500

2,500

1,500

500

-500

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20222023202420252026

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P,J.P.Morgan.

Figure11:Chinalepidoliteprice

Rmb/t

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Grade1.5-2%Grade2-2.5%

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

6

Lithiumoutput

Figure12:Chinalithiumcarbonatemonthlyoutput

kt

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2023202420252026

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Figure13:Chinalithiumcarbonatemonthlyoutputbreakdownbysource

kt

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

FromSpodumeneFromLepidolite

100

80

60

40

20

FromBrine

0

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Figure14:Chinalithiumcarbonatemonthlyoutputfromlepidolite

kt

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

FromLepidoliteYoY%

20

15

10

5

0

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

04June2026

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

7

Figure15:Chinalithiumhydroxidemonthlyoutput

kt

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2023202420252026

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Figure16:Chinalithiumhydroxidemonthlyoutputbreakdownbysource

kt

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

FromPureRefiningFromCarbonate

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Figure17:Chinalithiumcarbonateweeklyoutput

30

25

20

kt

15

10

5

0

FromSpodumeneFromLepidoliteFromBrineOthers

Source:SMM,J.P.Morgan.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

04June2026

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

8

Apparentconsumption

Figure18:Chinalithiumcarbonateapparentconsumption(downstream)

kt

-

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2023202420252026

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P,SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Figure19:Chinalithiumhydroxideapparentconsumption(downstream)

kt

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2023202420252026

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P,SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Figure20:Chinalithiumcarbonateimportbreakdownbycountry

kt

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

FromChileFromArgentinaFromOthers

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

(5)

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P,SMM,J.P.Morgan.

9

Figure21:Chinalithiumhydroxideexportbreakdownbycountry

kt

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

-

ToKoreaToJapanToOthers

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P,SMM,J.P.Morgan.

Inventory

Figure22:Chinalithiumcarbonatemonthlyinventory

kt

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

100100%

8080%

6060%

4040%

2020%

00%

InventoryatRefineryInventoryatDownstream%ofInventoryatRefinery(RHS)

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,SMM,J.P.Morgancalculations.

Figure24:Chinalithiumcarbonateweeklyinventory(afterMay21stmethodologychange)

OthersInventoryatrefinersInventoryatdownstream

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

-

kt

Figure23:Chinalithiumcarbonateweeklyinventory(beforeMay21stfrmethodologychange)

3/5/2026

3/12/2026

3/19/2026

3/26/2026

4/2/2026

4/9/2026

4/16/2026

4/23/2026

4/30/2026

5/7/2026

5/14/2026

5/21/2026

5/28/2026

kt

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-26OthersInventoryatrefinersInventoryatdownstream

Source:SMM,J.P.MorgancalculationsSource:SMM,J.P.Morgancalculations

10

Valuations

Table1:GlobalLithiumcomparison–consensus

CompanyTickerMktCap

(USDm)

P/E(x)

2026E2027E2028E

P/B(x)

2026E2027E2028E

EV/EBITDA(x)

2026E2027E2028E

China

GanfengLithium-A002460CH21,459

23.819.414.7

2.82.42.0

16.614.510.5

GanfengLithium-H1772HK16,519

15.613.09.8

2.11.91.6

14.212.510.0

TianqiLithium-A002466CH15,500

19.016.313.1

2.11.81.6

7.16.76.1

TianqiLithium-H9696HK10,623

13.611.811.0

1.41.31.1

6.96.66.8

QinghaiSaltLake000792CH23,827

14.212.811.3

2.92.42.0

8.89.77.4

YongxingMaterial002756CH4,859

18.415.29.5

2.32.01.8

10.68.56.0

Marketcapweightedaverage

17.615.012.0

2.42.01.7

11.110.38.2

Australia

PilbaraMineralsPLSAU15,221

39.520.225.9

5.14.13.6

19.711.714.0

IGOIGOAU5,202

49.711.913.4

3.32.62.3

26.616.624.3

LiontownResourcesLTRAU5,659

155.614.814.9

7.24.53.5

n.a.9.39.4

CoreLithiumCXOAU748

n.a.11.913.4

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.14.95.2

Marketcapweightedaverage

17.520.3

4.73.53.0

14.111.112.9

US

FMCFMCUS1,668

7.86.05.4

0.80.80.7

8.47.77.3

LithiumAmericas(US)LACUS1,934

n.a.n.a.10.7

1.01.00.8

n.a.n.a.10.2

LithiumAmericas(Canada)LACCN1,932

n.a.n.a.10.7

1.01.00.8

n.a.n.a.10.1

PiedmontPLLUSna

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

Marketcapweightedaverage

2.31.89.1

1.00.90.8

2.52.39.3

SouthAmerica

SQMSQMUS22,719

12.612.312.0

3.22.82.3

8.08.47.3

Marketcapweightedaverage

12.612.312.0

3.22.82.3

8.08.47.3

Globalmarketcapweightedaverage

12.414.713.8

3.02.42.1

11.09.99.2

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan.Pricesarebasedonthemostrecentclose.Note:Pastperformanceisnotanindicatoroffuturereturns.

11

Neutral

002460.SZ,002460CH

Price(03Jun26):Rmb68.79

PriceTarget(Dec-26):Rmb80.00

AsiaBasicMaterials

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

KeyChanges(FYEDec)

GanfengLithium–A

MaintainNeutral

Wehaveadjustedourmodeltoreflectupdatedlong-termspodumeneandcarbonatepriceswhichhavebeenraisedtoUS$1,500/t&US$18,000/t(+15/20%)onthebackofrecentincreasesincapitalintensityandcostinflation(settingsbasedonagreenfieldbrineopera-tion).Whileourshort-termforecastsareunchanged,wehaverevisedupourassumptionforthelithiumbatterysegmentgrossmargintoreflectthecostpast-throughobservedinthepastmonths.WealsorevisedthetotalCOGSlowerandreviseddowntheSG&Aassumptiontoalignwiththe1Q26results.Wethereforerevisedupour2026-2028Eearningsby15-22%.NochangesweremadetoourPTandwerateGanfengN.

Pre∨

Cur

Δ

Adj.EPS-26E(Rmb)

2.52

3.08

22.0%

Adj.EPS-27E(Rmb)

2.84

3.40

19.5%

StyleExposure

Sourcesfor:StyleExposure–J.P.MorganGlobalMarketsStrategy;allothertablesarecompanydataandJ.P.Morganestimates.

12

PricePerformance

Abs

Rel

YTD1m

9.4%-22.4%6.5%-21.8%

3m12m

2.3%128.3%3.2%106.8%

CompanyData

SharesO/S(mn)

2,016

52-weekrange(Rmb)

91.67-29.91

Marketcap($mn)

20,507

Exchangerate

6.76

Freefloat(%)

65.0%

3MADV(mn)

65.11

3MADV($mn)

755.8

Volatility(90Day)

50

Index

SHASHR

BBGANR(Buy|Hold

|Sell)

22|3|1

KeyMetrics(FYEDec)

Rmbinmillions

FinancialEstimates

Revenue

Adj.EBITDA

Adj.EBIT

Adj.net

incomeAdj.EPS

BBGEPS

CashflowfromoperationsFCFF

MarginsandGrowth

RevenueGrowthY/Y(%)EBITDAmargin

EBITDAGrowthY/Y(%)EBITmargin

Netmargin

Adj.EPSgrowth

Ratios

Adj.tax

rate

InterestcoverNetdebt/Equity

Netdebt/EBITDAROCE

ROE

Valuation

FCFFyield

Dividendyield

EV/Revenue

EV/EBITDA

Adj.P/E

FY25A

23,082

3,9121,383(901)

(0.44)

0.27 2,945(4,477)

22.1%

16.9%

114.5%

6.0%

(3.9%)

1.6%

6.3%

3.0

0.5

6.5

1.7%

(2.1%)

(3.2%)

0.2%

12.3

72.8NM

FY26E

43,598

10,600

7,538

6,285

3.08

3.068,174

2,174

88.9%

24.3%

171.0%

17.3%

14.4%

(797.5%)

3.9%

7.6

0.4

2.2

8.8%

13.1%

1.5%

0.4%

6.5

26.7

22.3

FY27E

49,306

11,594

8,138

6,936

3.40

3.719,518

3,518

13.1%

23.5%

9.4%

16.5%

14.1%

10.4%

3.9%

8.6

0.3

1.8

8.9%

12.8%

2.5%

0.5%

5.7

24.1

20.2

FY28E

51,998

14,054

10,255

9,153

4.48

4.6612,012

6,012

5.5%

27.0%

21.2%

19.7%

17.6%

32.0%

3.9%

11.1

0.2

1.1

10.3%

14.8%

4.3%

0.6%

5.3

19.5

15.3

SummaryInvestmentThesisandValuation

InvestmentThesis

Ganfengisamongthelargestlithiumproducersglobally,withstakesinseveralkeylithiumassetssuchasMtMarionandCauchari-Olaroz.Thecompany'sbatteryproductionsegmentcontinuestoshowsolidgrowth,drivenbyrisingESSandEVdemand,andisemergingasanincreasinglyimportantearningsdriver.Ganfeng'sfundamentalsareimproving,withapositiveQoQearningstrajectoryanticipated.However,wemaintainNascurrentvaluationsappearelevatedrelativetopeers,andnear-termsupply-sideuncertaintyposesriskstolithiumpricestability.WhileGanfengiswell-positionedtoparticipateinthemulti-yearexpansionoflithiumdemand,thepaceofincrementalmineramp-upandpotentialsupplyresponseathigherpricesremainkeyfactorstomonitor.

Valuation

OurDec-26PTofRmb80isbasedonatargetFY26EP/Bof3x,inlinewithglobalpeers.ThePTimpliesa26xFY26EP/E.

PerformanceDrivers

Source:J.P.MorganGlobalMarketsStrategyforPerformanceDrivers;companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morganestimatesforallothertables.Note:Pricehistorymaynotbecompleteorexact.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

04June2026

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

InvestmentThesis,ValuationandRisks

13

GanfengLithium–A(Neutral;PriceTarget:Rmb80.00)

InvestmentThesis

Ganfengisamongthelargestlithiumproducersglobally,withstakesinseveralkeylithiumassetssuchasMtMarionandCauchari-Olaroz.Thecompany'sbatteryproductionsegmentcontinuestoshowsolidgrowth,drivenbyrisingESSandEVdemand,andisemergingasanincreasinglyimportantearningsdriver.Ganfeng'sfundamentalsareimproving,withapositiveQoQearningstrajectoryanticipated.However,wemaintainNascurrentvaluationappearselevatedrelativetopeers,andnear-termsupply-sideuncertaintyposesriskstolithiumpricestability.WhileGanfengiswell-positionedtoparticipateinthemulti-yearexpansionoflithiumdemand,thepaceofincrementalmineramp-upandpotentialsupplyresponseathigherpricesremainkeyfactorstomonitor.

Valuation

OurDec-26PTofRmb80isbasedonatargetFY26EP/Bof3x,inlinewithglobalpeers.ThePTimpliesa26xFY26EP/E.

RiskstoRatingandPriceTarget

Upsiderisksinclude:(1)earlier-than-expecteddownstreaminventoryrestocking;(2)stronger-than-expectedbatterydemandgrowth;and(3)asharpreductioninsupplyorsignificantproductioncuts.

Downsiderisksinclude:(1)weakerlithiumprices;(2)softerESSdemandgrowth;(3)supplymateriallyrampingupinresponsetohigherprices;and(4)apotentialequityraisepostsharepricestrength.

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

04June2026

AveryChanAC

(852)2800-8659

avery.chan@

GanfengLithium–A:SummaryofFinancials

14

IncomeStatement

FY24A

FY25A

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

CashFlowStatement

FY24A

FY25A

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

Revenue

COGS

Grossprofit

SG&A

Adj.EBITDA

D&A

Adj.EBIT

NetInterest

Adj.PBT

Tax

MinorityInterest

Adj.NetIncome

ReportedEPS

Adj.EPS

DPS

Payoutratio

Sharesoutstanding

18,906

(16,861)

23,082

(19,453)

43,598

(32,169)

49,306

(36,719)

51,998

(37,051)

12,012

3,799(511)

(6,000)

(6,000)

11.5%

(694)

(694)00

5,319

6,012

70.9%

5,1612,9458,174

1,3842,5293,062

4,811(3,403)(879)

(12,242)(4,407)(6,000)

(9,905)(7,422)(6,000)

52.4%32.2%13.8%

3,4473,720(315)

(2,498)(1,375)(315)

1093,2380

7,7483,6740

(3,652)2,2271,859

(4,744)(4,477)2,174

(54.5%)(5.6%)(148.6%)

9,518

3,457(551)

(6,000)

(6,000)

12.2%

(629)

(629)00

2,889

3,518

61.8%

Cashflowfromoperatingactivities

o/wDepreciation&amortizationo/wChangesinworkingcapital

Cashflowfrominvestingactivities

o/wCapitalexpenditureas%ofsales

Cashflowfromfinancingactivities

o/wDividendspaid

o/wSharesissued/(repurchased)

o/wNetdebtissued/(repaid)

Netchangeincash

Adj.Freecashflowtofirm

y/yGrowth

RatioAnalysisFY24AFY25AFY26EFY27EFY28E

Grossmargin10.8%15.7%26.2%25.5%28.7%

2,045

(1,018)

1,824

(1,384)

3,629

(1,357)

3,912

(2,529)

11,428

(1,781)

10,600

(3,062)

12,586

(2,014)

11,594

(3,457)

14,947

(2,124)

14,054

(3,799)

4