高盛-首要议题：人工智能会引发就业末日吗？-TOP of MIND：AN AI JOB APOCALYPSE-20260625

ISSUE149|Ju

t2p5s,2:w|0.:52AMEDT

ANAIJOBAPOCALYPSE?

“

RapidimprovementsinAIcapabilitiesandgrowingcorporateadoptionhaveledto predictionsthatthetechnologycouldleadtolarge-scalejoblossesbeforetheend ofthedecade.So,justhowconcernedshouldwebeaboutanAI“jobapocalypse”? MIT’sDaronAcemogluandNeilThompsonandGS’JosephBriggsgenerallyagree thatthesepredictionslikelywon’tcometopass,thoughtheydifferonthescaleof disruptionahead.Briggsexpectssignificantlabordisplacementbutonlytemporarily asnewjobseventuallyemerge.Thompsonislessconvincedaboutlarge-scalejob displacementandtakescomfortintheabilitytoanticipatechanges,seeingAIasa risingtideratherthanacrashingwaveforlabor.AndAcemogluexpectsasmallnet negativeimpactonlaboroverthenextfiveyears,withpossiblelargerlossesoverthelongertermifinvestmentremainsfocusedonreplacingratherthancomplementingworkers.Amidthisdebate,wefindthatAI’simpactoncorporatelaborneeds—andearnings—remainstoouncertainformarketstoreward(fornow).

WHAT’SINSIDE

INTERVIEWSWITH:

Nogenerallawofeconomicssaysthatjobcreationmustmatchjobdestruction.Jobgrowthoverthelast80+yearsresultingfromacombinationofchangingtasks,newtasks,andashiftingstructureofoccupationshasnotoccurredatanevenpace.-DaronAcemoglu

Previousautomationwaveshaveresultedinmanynewjobs,whichofferssomereassurance.ButAIalso

processesinformationinwaysmoresimilartohumansthanprevioustechnologies,somoreworrymaybe

warranted

.

-NeilThompson

DespiteourexpectationthatAI-relatedjoblosseswillleadtoameaningfulamountoflabordisplacement,wecontinuetoexpectthatlabormarketheadwindswillbetemporary.KeytothisviewisourexpectationthatoverthelongrunAIwillcreatemanynewjobsevenasit

destroysexistingones.

-JosephBriggs

JennyGrimberg|jenny.grimberg@

“

...ANDMORE

AshleyRhodes|ashley.rhodes@

DaronAcemoglu,InstituteProfessoratMIT

NeilThompson,DirectoroftheFutureTechresearchprojectatMIT’sComputerScienceandArtificialIntelligenceLab

HOWMUCHAILABORDISPLACEMENT?

JosephBriggs,GSGlobalEconomicsResearch

AI&LABOR:SUBSTITUTIONVS.AUGMENTATION

ElsiePeng,GSUSEconomicsResearch

ISAIHURTINGNEWGRADUATES?

JessicaRindelsandPierfrancescoMei,GSUSEconomicsResearch

AI’SUNEVENTOLLONWORKERS

PierfrancescoMei,GSUSEconomicsResearch

AI:LIMITEDLABORPRODUCTIVITYUPLIFTSOFAR

RyanHammond,GSUSPortfolioStrategyResearch

AIAGENTSVS.HUMANS:WHOCOSTSMORE?

JamesSchneiderandLuyaYou,GSEquityResearch

AllisonNathan|allison.nathan@

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2

TopofMindIssue149

【价值目录】网整理：

Macronewsandviews

Weprovideabriefsnapshotonthemostimportanteconomiesfortheglobalmarkets

Japan

LatestGSproprietarydatapoints/majorchangesinviews

•Nomajorchangesinviews.

Datapoints/trendswe’refocusedon

•BoJpolicy;weexpecttheBoJtocontinuehikingrates

roughlyeverysixmonths,withthenexthikelikelyinJan

2027,toapolicyrateof1.5%nextsummer,though

uncertaintyaroundthetimingofthenexthikeremainshigh.

•Japanfiscaloutlook,whichcouldworsenifPMTakaichi

implementsherexpansionaryplansandlong-terminterestratesrisefurthertowardthelevelsofotherG10economies.

•JapaneserealGDPgrowth,whichweexpecttodeclineto

0.5%in2026(from1.1%lastyear,bothyoy).

US

LatestGSproprietarydatapoints/majorchangesinviews

•Weraisedoursequential2H26GDPgrowthforecastto2%(from1.9%)andloweredour12mrecessionoddstothe

15%long-termnorm(from25%)followingtheUS-Irandeal.

Datapoints/trendswe’refocusedon

•Fedpolicy;thehawkishJunemeetingraisestheriskofhikeslaterthisyear,butweexpecttheFedtoremainonholdin‘26asmostFOMCvoterslikelystillleantowardunchangedpolicyratesandthelatestprojectionsmaybestalegiventhedeal.

•CorePCEinflation,whichweexpecttoremaincloseto3%throughYEbeforedecliningtocloseto2%in2027(yoy).

•Realincome,whichwilllikelyslowin2H26,keepingrealconsumerspendinggrowthatjust1.5%.

USrecessionrisk:backtoitslong-termnorm

US12maheadrecessionprobability,%

100

90BloombergconsensusGS

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Mar-22Oct-22May-23Dec-23Jul-24Feb-25Sep-25Apr-26

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGIR.

Japan:apotentiallylesssustainablefiscaloutlook

Debt/GDPratiobyinterestratescenario,%ofGDP

GSestimate

10Yyield=3.5%

10Yyield=2.7%(ratesasofendMay2026)

10Yyield=2.0%(ratesasofend2025)203020402050

270

250

230

210

190

170

150

2010

2020

Source:CabinetOffice,GoldmanSachsGIR.

Europe

EmergingMarkets(EM)

LatestGSproprietarydatapoints/majorchangesinviews

•Weloweredour2Q26ChinarealGDPgrowthforecastto3.5%(from4.0%,bothqoqann.)givenweakAprilandMayactivitydata,thoughweexpectgrowthtoreboundto5.0%in3Q26(qoqann.),forfull-yearrealGDPgrowthof4.7%.

Datapoints/trendswe’refocusedon

•AIinvestmentboom,whichwilllikelycontinueboosting

growthinseveralAsianeconomiesinvolvedinthetechandAIsupplychain,especiallyTaiwanandSouthKorea.

•China’scurrentaccountsurplus,whichcontinuestogrowandcouldweighontradingpartners’exportgrowth.

•RMBinternationalization,whichcouldaccelerateahead.

LatestGSproprietarydatapoints/majorchangesinviews

•Weraisedour2026/27EAGDPgrowthforecaststo0.5%/1.2%(from0.3%/0.9%,yoy)andloweredourEA/UKpeakcoreinflationforecaststo2.6%/2.9%(from2.7%/3.1%,yoy)partlytoreflectthelowerenergypriceswenowexpect.

Datapoints/trendswe’refocusedon

•UKpolitics;BurnhamisexpectedtosucceedStarmerasPM,whichcouldleadtoslowerfiscalconsolidation.

•BoEpolicy;recentweakactivitydataandacontinued

decelerationinunderlyinginflationmeasureshaveraisedourconfidencethattheBoEwillremainonholdthisyearbeforecuttingratesin2027.

•EAfiscaldeficits,whichhavewidenedonaveragevspre-covid.

Euroarea:deterioratingfiscalbalances(formost)

Belgium

France

Finland

Austria

Germany

EU

EA

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Portugal

Ireland

202020212022202320242025

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGIR.

Singapore

SouthKorea

OtherAsianeconomies

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Taiwan

Malaysia

HongKong

FiscalbalancesintheEuroarea,%ofGDP

Asia:surgingtechexports

Asiaex.MainlandChinatechexportstoworld,3mann.,$bn

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

2012-19

2026-27

Source:HaverAnalytics,EuropeanCommission,GoldmanSachsGIR.

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch3

TopofMindIssue149

【价值目录】网整理：

AnAIjobapocalypse?

RapidimprovementsinAIcapabilitiesandgrowingcorporate

effortstointegratethetechnologyintoenterpriseworkflows

haveraisedconcernsthatAIcouldtriggera“jobapocalypse”,especiallyassomecompanieshavecitedAIasafactorin

recentlayoffs(seepg.16),entry-levelhiringappearstobe

softeninginsomeAI-exposedoccupations,andunemploymentamongcollegegraduateshasrisenabovethepre-pandemic

average.So,justhowconcernedshouldwebeaboutthedisruptivepotentialofAIfortheUSlabormarket?

SomeprominenttechnologistspredictthatAIcouldultimatelyeliminateamassivenumberofjobs.Theyarguethat,unlike

previoustechnologicalshiftsthatprimarilyautomatedroutinemanuallaborandclericaltasks,increasinglycapableAImodelswillsoonbeabletohandlemuchofthecognitiveworkhumansperform,leavingmanyworkerswithlesstodo.TheyalsopointtotheunprecedentedspeedofAIadvances,whichcould

outpacethelabormarket’snaturalabilitytoadapt,leadingto

substantialdisplacementinassoonasthenextfewyears.Andevenifthetechnologyeventuallycreatesnewroles,theywarnofaskillsmismatch,whichcouldmeanthatthesenewroles

willbefilledbyAIitselfratherthandisplacedhumanworkers.

GSSeniorGlobalEconomistJosephBriggsalsoexpects

significantlabordisplacement,estimatingmorethan9%ofthelaborforce—around15mnworkers—couldlosetheirjobsduringthe10-yearAItransitionheassumes.Buthebelievesthese

losseswillprovetemporaryowingtohisexpectationthatAIwillcreatemanynewjobsoverthelongtermevenasitdestroys

existingones,takingcomfortfromthehistoricalprecedentof

technologicalinnovationscreatingmuchnewworkandthe

dynamismoftheUSeconomy(whichGSCEODavidSolomonalsocitesasakeyreasonwhyhebelievesthenarrativeofanAIjobapocalypseisoverblown).Andthe10-yearAItransition

periodthatBriggsassumesshouldprovidethelabormarkettimetoadapt.

NeilThompson,DirectoroftheFutureTechresearchprojectatMIT’sComputerScienceandAIlab,islessconvincedthatAI

willdrivelarge-scalejobdisplacement.Heexplainsthat

“capabilityisonlyonestepintheprocessthatleadstolabor

marketchange”—AImustalsoperformreliably,haveaccesstotherightinformation,andbecosteffectivetomeaningfully

impactjobs.Andbecausemostjobsconsistofmanytasks,onlysomeofwhichcanbeautomated,heexpectsaslowerand

moreunevenlabormarketadjustmentthanAI’scurrent

capabilitiessuggest.Thompsonalsotakessome—thoughnotcomplete—comfortfrompreviousautomationwavesthat

createdmanynewjobs.So,hedescribesAI’simpactonthelabormarketmoreasa“risingtide”thana“crashingwave”:

realchangeandchurn,especiallyifadoptionacceleratesquickly,butnotsudden,widespreadjobloss.

WethenspokeagainwithDaronAcemoglu,InstituteProfessoratMITandwinneroftheNobelPrizeinEconomics.HeexpectsAItohaveonlyasmallnetnegativeimpactonlaboroverthe

nextfiveyears—farlessthansometechnologistspredict—ascurrentAImodelsaremorelikelytoreplacethancomplementworkers(GSUSEconomistElsiePengindeedfindsthatAIiscurrentlysubstitutingmorethanaugmenting,resultingina

smallnetdragonthelabormarket).ButAcemogluwarnsthat

joblossescouldbelargeroverthelongertermifAIinvestmentcontinuestofocusmoreonreplacingthancomplementing

workers,andespeciallysoifagenticadvances,improvementsinAImodels’socialcapabilities,orAI-roboticsintegration

expandthesetofjobsthatthetechnologycouldimpact(GSequityanalystsJamesSchneiderandLuyaYoualsoarguethatfallingtokencostscouldmakemoreenterpriseworkflows

economicallyviabletoautomate).AndAcemogluisless

comfortedthanBriggsandThompsonbyhistory,pointingoutthat“nogenerallawofeconomicssaysthatjobcreationmustmatchjobdestruction.”

So,whichworkerswillbemostimpactedbytheselabormarketshifts?WhilemuchoftheconcernaboutAI-drivenjoblosses

hascenteredonnewgraduatesandwhite-collarworkersmorebroadly,GSUSEconomistsJessicaRindelsandPierfrancescoMeifindthatAIhashadlittleimpactoncollegegraduates’jobprospectssofar.Buttheyarguethatcouldchangeoverthe

neartermascollegegraduatesaredisproportionatelyemployedinindustrieswithhighAIadoptionratesandoccupationswith

morepotentiallyautomatabletasks.Evenso,RindelsandMei

remainrelativelyoptimisticaboutcollegegraduates’longer-termprospects,findingthattheyhavehistoricallyadjustedmore

nimblythanotherworkerstotechnologicaldisruption.

Asforwhite-collarworkersmorebroadly,Acemogluarguesthatthoseperformingcognitive,routinetasksunderpredictable

conditions—suchascustomerserviceandback-officework—willbearthebruntofAIdisplacement.Asthesetasksare

disproportionatelyperformedbylower-paidwhite-collar

workers,heexpectsthistoleadtoariseinincomeinequality

overthecomingyears.However,Acemoglunotesthatif

workersinhigher-paidmanagerialrolesarealsodisplaced,as

somethinktheycouldbe,theninequalitycouldactuallydecline.

ThompsonagreesthatmuchwilldependonwhattypesofworkAIultimatelyautomates,withthekeybeingwhetherit

automatesthemostorleastexpertpartsofajob.IfAI

automatestheleastexperttasks,employmentwouldfallwhilewagesriseastheworkbecomesmorespecialized;ifitinsteadautomatesthemostexperttasks,employmentwouldrisewhilewagesfallasmoreworkerscandothejob.Thatframework

suggeststheimpactwillcutacrosstheoccupationandwagedistributionratherthanhittingoneworkergroupinparticular.

Amidthisdebate,GSSeniorUSEquityStrategistRyan

Hammondfindsthatthetechnology’simpactoncorporatelaborneeds—and,crucially,earnings—remainstoouncertainfor

marketstorewardtoday.Asaresult,hesays,investors

continuetofavortheAIinfrastructurecomplex,whereearningsbenefitsaremoretangible.ButHammondexpectsthisto

change,withtheAItradeeventuallybroadeningtoincludelaborproductivitybeneficiariesasclearerevidencethatAI’smuch-

toutedproductivitybenefitscangenerateadurableearningsupliftemerges.

AllisonNathan,Editor

Email:allison.nathan@

Tel:212-357-7504

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4

TopofMindIssue149

【价值目录】网整理：

InterviewwithDaronAcemoglu

DaronAcemogluisanInstituteProfessoratMITandauthorofseveralbooks.HereceivedtheNobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicSciencesin2024(jointlywithSimonJohnsonandJamesA.Robinson).Below,hearguesthatAIislikelytohaveasmallnetnegativeimpactonlaboroverthenextfiveyearsandalargernegativeimpactoverthelongertermunlesstheindustrydirectsmoreinvestmenttowardadvancesthatcomplement,ratherthanreplace,workers.

TheviewsstatedhereinarethoseoftheintervieweeanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofGoldmanSachs.

AllisonNathan:Theconsensus

amongeconomistsseemstobe

thataggregatelabormarketdataisnotyetindicatingsignificantlabormarketimpactsfromAItechnologydespiteheadlinesoflargeAI-relatedlayoffs.Doyouagree?

DaronAcemoglu:Yes.Well-informedpeoplelikemycolleagueErik

Brynjolfssonhaveobservedanimpactontheentry-leveljob

market.ButIbroadlyagreewiththeconsensusthatnohugeeffectisnotableintheaggregatedatayet.SomeofthelayoffheadlinesmaybeAIwhitewashing,andsomeofthemare

genuineattemptsbyahandfulofbravecompaniesto

experimentwithcompletingmoretaskswithAI.Butthese

effortsarenotlargeenoughtoshowupintheaggregatedata,exceptpossiblyinsomeslowdowninhiringinAI-exposed

entry-levelpositions.

AllisonNathan:Doyouexpectalargerimpacttobevisibleanytimesoon?

DaronAcemoglu:Yes.Whileit’sverydifficulttomake

predictionswithanydegreeofcertainty,asthesecompany

effortsintensify,Isuspecttheseimpactswillbecomemore

visiblein2027intheformoflayoffsorahiringslowdownin

jobswhereAIcanatleasthaveachanceofreplacingsome

tasks.AIismorelikelytoreplacethanaugmentjobsintheneartermsimplybecausecurrentAImodelsarenotgoodat

complementingworkersbeyondsimpletaskslikereference

checks,exceptinafewfieldssuchasbiologicalandchemicalresearch.So,Iexpectanetnegativeimpactonthenumberofjobsincomingyears.

Butitisimportanttoemphasizethat,inmyestimation,the

scaleofjoblosseswon’tbeanywhereclosetotheverylargelayoffssomearepredicting.Iestimatesuchlosseswillbelessthan,say,2-4%overthenextfiveyears.MycautionaboutAI’sspreadand,inturn,itseconomicimpact,reflectstherelative

lackofuser-friendlyapplicationstodaythatwouldenablelargeemployerstoleveragethefoundationmodels.

Rightnow,workersarelargelyengagedinpromptengineering,whichisdifficult,inconsistent,andtime-consuming.Coding/

softwareengineeringremainsthenotableexceptionbecausemanyaspectsofcodingarenowroutinizedandsoftware

engineerstodayareAIexpertsthatknowhowtoleverage,

troubleshoot,andcheckthemodels.Agenticadvancesmay

openthedoortodevelopingapplicationsthatenablebroaderAIuse,butthat’sunlikelyifeverycompanymustdevelopitsownapplications.What’srequiredtomovetheneedleisthe

developmentofapplicationsthatallcompaniescanleverage,liketheMicrosoftOfficeversionofAI,sotospeak.

So,Iexpectonlyasmallnetnegativeimpactonlaboroverthenextfiveyearsorso,concentratedinwhite-collarworkers

whosetasksarecognitiveandroutineandinvolveperformingsimilarfunctionsunderpredictableconditionsratherthan

typicallyconfrontingnewandunusualthingsorconstant

innovation,creation,andintensesocialinteractionorjudgment.Theseexposedoccupationsincludecustomerservice

representativesorback-officework.IntheUS,theseworkersnumberroughly8-9million,whichisnotasmallnumberbut

accountsforonlyroughly5%oftheworkforce.AndtheimpactcouldbeevensmallerandsloweriftheearlymoversthatarealreadyexperimentingwithAIlaborreplacementgettheir

mouthsburned.

AIismorelikelytoreplacethanaugmentjobsintheneartermsimplybecausecurrentAImodelsarenotgoodatcomplementing

workersbeyondsimpletaskslikereference

checks...So,Iexpectanetnegativeimpactonthenumberofjobsincomingyears.But...thescaleofjoblosseswon’tbeanywhereclosetotheverylargelayoffssomearepredicting.”

AllisonNathan:DoesyourcalculusaboutAI’slabormarketimpactshiftoverthemedium-to-longerterm?

DaronAcemoglu:Muchmoreuncertaintyexistsovera10-to15-yearhorizon.Howthisevolvesdependsonwhere

investmentsaredirected.Ihavearguedforover10yearsthatthecomplementarypath—wherebyAItechnology

complementsversusreplaceshumanlabor—couldbequite

productive.Butsuchapathrequiresdifferentinvestmentsintermsofpre-traininganddomain-specificapplicationsanddata.Andthoseinvestmentsarenothappeningonasufficientscaletodaytosupportahuman-complementarypath.Ashiftintheindustry'sprioritiesandincentivesthatleadstogreater

investmentinthisdirectioncouldresultinamuchmore

positiveoutcomeforlabor.Butshouldthingscontinueastheyare,Iwouldexpectbiggernetjoblosseswithinthenext10to15years.

Manywildcardscouldalsoworsentheselosses.Ifagentic

advancesleadtowidelyaccessible,user-friendlyapplications,thenjoblossescouldextendbeyondback-officewhite-collarworkerstomiddle-managerrolesthatinvolvemorejudgementandeventomoreseniormanagerialrolesshouldthe

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch5

【价值目录】网整理：

TopofMindIssue149

technology’scognitiveabilitiesvastlyimprovefromhere.Thelargechunkofjobsthatinvolvesocialinteractionscouldalsocomeunderthreatifthesocialdimensionsofmodelscontinuetoimproveandhumanconsumersbecomemoreacceptingofinteractingwithbots,whichyoungergenerationsseemmoreopento.

Andperhapsoneofthebiggestwildcardsisthepotential

integrationofAIandrobotics.Significanteffortsarebeing

madeonthisfront,especiallyoutsideoftheUS,butseveral

challengesexisttosuchintegrationonboththeroboticsandAIsides.Robotsneedtobeflexibleandgentlewhilestillbeing

abletoperformphysicallychallengingtasks,andAImodels

currentlydon'tdoverywellonspatialcausalrelations,whichcombinespatialreasoningwithcausalinference.AImodels

alsolackimmediatefeedbackcontrols,whichrequiremuch

greaterawarenessoftheenvironmentthanwhatlarge

languagemodels(LLMs)canachievebysimplyreadingtext

andunderstandingwords.So,manyadvanceswouldbe

required,whichsuggestsprogresswilllikelybeslow.But

shouldamazingbreakthroughsoccur,thatwouldgreatly

increasethenumberofjobsthatAIcouldimpactgiventhat

roughly50%ofjobsintheUSeconomyrequirephysicallabor.

Ashiftintheindustry'sprioritiesandincentivesthatleadstogreaterinvestmentin[thecomplementarypath]couldresultina

muchmorepositiveoutcomeforlabor.Butshouldthingscontinueastheyare,Iwouldexpectbiggernetjoblosseswithinthenext10to15years.”

AllisonNathan:Thevastmajorityofjobgrowthsince1940hasbeendrivenbytechnologyandthecreativedestructionprocess.So,doyouthinkthistimewillbedifferent?

DaronAcemoglu:Notnecessarily.Butnogenerallawof

economicssaysthatjobcreationmustmatchjobdestruction.Jobgrowthoverthelast80+yearsresultingfroma

combinationofchangingtasks,newtasks,andashifting

structureofoccupationshasnotoccurredatanevenpace.Forexample,fewerjobsforworkerswithoutacollegedegreehavebeencreatedsince1980thanbefore1980,leadingtoadeclineinthisgroup’semployment-to-populationratioandwages,

especiallyamongmen.Duringthe1950s,1960s,andearly

1970s,jobcreationexceededjobdestruction,whichledto

increaseddemandforlaborandafasterriseinwagesthan

productivity.Butsincethelate1970s,jobcreationhasmostlyfallenshortofjobdestruction,withthedestructioncenteredinmanufacturingjobs.ThejoblossesIexpectinthecomingyearsamounttoasimilarscenario,butwiththejoblossesinstead

centeredaroundcognitiveofficejobs.So,nothingiscompletelydifferentthistimearound,buteveryperiodisdifferentintermsofthebalancebetweenjobcreationanddestruction.

AllisonNathan:WhatimplicationswillAIlikelyhaveforwagesandincomeinequality?

DaronAcemoglu:Toanswerthat,it’simportanttounderstandthatinequalityandemploymentaremoretightlylinkedthanissometimesimpliedbecausedecliningorstagnantwagesfor

somegroupstypicallyreducethesegroups’employment-to-

populationratioorparticipationrateastheybecomeless

motivatedtowork.So,adeclineinwagesandemploymentwilllikelygohand-in-handforspecificgroups.And,assuminglower-paidwhite-collarworkerswillbehithardestbyAI,atleastin

thecomingyearslaborincomeinequalitywilllikelyrise.

Ofcourse,ifjoblossesalsoencompasshigh-paidmanagerialroles,assomepeopleseemtoexpect,thenincomeinequalitycouldactuallydecline.But,aswe’vediscussed,Idon’tbelievethat’sthemorelikelyscenario.Andevenifwell-paidmanagersdidfindthemselvesinthecrosshairs,theywouldlikelyhave

moresuccessatfindingnewjobsthanthenextlayerof

displacedworkers.So,they’dstillbeunlikelytobearthebruntofAIdisplacement.

AllisonNathan:Whatabouttheimplicationsforcapitalversuslaborincome?WhichismorelikelytoreapthebenefitsofAItechnology?

DaronAcemoglu:Labor-capitalinequality—thegapbetweenincomeearnedfromworkandincomegeneratedfromassets—willmorecertainlyincrease.LLMsareincreasingthecapital

intensityofproduction.Thehugecapitalinvestmentthey

requireisatelltalesignthatcapitalincomewillincrease,evenifsomeofthoseinvestmentsaren’tfullyprofitableordon'tbreakeven.Theyneverthelessgeneratesubstantialrevenue,almostallofwhichiscapital-based;whileAIcompaniespresumably

paytheiremployeeswell,themaininputisdataandcompute.So,labor-capitalinequalitywillrise.Moreover,sincemanyofthesecompanieshaveconcentratedownership,inequalitywillincreaseevenwithincapitalincomeearners.

AllisonNathan:Whatrole,ifany,willpolicyhaveinshapinglabormarketoutcomes?

DaronAcemoglu:Policyhasavitalroletoplay.Butbeforeweeveninvolvepolicy,wemustfirstarriveatasocietalconsensusaboutwhatwewantfromAIandwhatAIcandeliver.Inmy

view,complementaryAIcouldresultinproductivityandlaborbenefitsandproveenormouslyusefulfortheeconomyand

societyatlarge.Butwhat’smissingtodayisaclear

conversationaboutwhatitwouldtaketopurposefullybuild

human-complementaryAItools.Somepeoplearguethatthe

bestapproachwouldbetodoubledownonLLMsandthenusetheminhuman-complementaryways.Idisagree.Inmyview,anapproachthatshiftsthefocusfrom“machineintelligence”to“machineusefulness”—orfrommachinesdesignedto

mimicandreplicatehumanabilitiestothosedesignedto

augmentandempowerhumancapabilities—wouldbebetter.Onceth