2025 AI“魔球理论”：全球前沿AI人才竞争量化分析报告

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DraftingthenextgenerationofFrontierAItalent

Introduction

TheWaronTalentinAlisacontinuallyrelevanttopicinthemedia.Thisnarrativegainedtractionwiththeemergenceofgenerative

AI(GenAl),atransformativetechnologythatpromisestoproduceincreasinglyintelligentAlsystems.

TheleadingtechgiantsintheUSarecurrentlyinaracetomasterthis

technology,resultinginasurgeofcapitalinvestmentaimedatgaininganadvantage.ThisincludessignificantfundingtoacquirethetalentnecessarytodevelopthenextgenerationoftheirFrontierAlmodels.

ButwhatdoesthisFrontierAltalentlooklike?Howdoesitdifferfrom

othertalentinthemarket?ArethetalentscoutsfortheseUStechgiantsidentifyingthebestcandidates,oraretheymainlyhiringindividualswhoresembletheircurrentworkforce?WillthisFrontierAltalentdrivethenextwaveofinnovationinAl?

INSPIRATION

InspiredbyMoneyballinbaseball,whichpioneeredtheuseofdatatoidentifyundervaluedplayers,ZekiDatacollecteddataonthetop2,000individualsspecialisinginpushingtheboundariesofresearchandengineeringbehindthecreationofthemost

powerfulFrontierAlmodelsoutsideofChina.

DEFINITIONS

CONTACTHITTER:eliteperformerinAl,akintobaseballplayersthatare

characterisedbyhighbattingaverages,proficiencyinputtingtheballinplayandalowerstrikeoutrate

POWERHITTER:eliteperformerinAl,akintobaseballplayerswhocanhithomerunsbutmayalsostrike

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Overthepasttenyears,wehavetrackedandevaluatedtheirprogressusingaproprietaryscoringsystembasedonmorethan30variables.

Thesevariablesmeasuretheirareasofexpertise,innovationtrackrecord,careerpositioning,skills,influenceandreputationamongstpeers.

ZekiDatacomparedthisFrontierAlcohortwith30,000individualswiththesameareasofexpertiseinAlbutwhowerenotselectedordidnotchoose

toworkonFrontierAlmodels.TheresultspaintapictureofanincreasinglyconcentratedsetofeliteperformersinAl.Todrawabaseballanalogy,theseindividualsareakintoMajorLeagueContactHitters-knownforhighbattingaverages,theirabilitytomakeconsistentcontactandstrongteamplaywhileexperiencingfewerstrikeouts.

However,baseballteamsneedmorethanContactHitters.TheyalsoneedPowerHitters,whocanhithomeruns(butmaystrikeoutmorefrequently).ButarePowerHittersplentifulwithintheFrontierAlcohort?

Wedon'tthinkso.

TheContactHitterLandscape

ItcomesasnosurprisethattheFrontierAlcohort’sprimarylocationisintheUS.Thehighnumber

intheUKactuallyreflectsthenumberofGoogleDeepMindresearchscientistsandengineerswhoarepartoftheUS-owned,multinationalcompanyAlphabet.

ByunderstandingtheFrontierAlcohortlandscapefirst,wegainaclearerpictureofwheretalentisconcentratedglobally.Thecohort'sareasof

expertisearehighlycentralisedintoeightmainspecialisationsinAloutofover100categorisedbyZekiData.

GeographicdistributionoftheFrontierAlcohort:top10countries

COUNTRY

TOTALCOUNT

MALE

FEMALE

USA

1,192

934

258

UK

290

228

62

Canada

98

76

22

Switzerland

70

55

15

France

67

54

13

Germany

57

54

3

India

40

36

4

Korea

24

21

3

Israel

24

22

2

Australia

22

19

3

TheFrontierAlcohortishighlyconcentratedineightmainareasofexpertise

VisualQuestion

AnsweringinimagesandAdvancesinVideosTransfer

179Learningand

Domain

Adaptation

158

Deep

Learningin

Computer

Visionand

Image

Recognition

131

NaturalLanguageProcessing635

StatisticalMachineTranslationand

NaturalLanguageProcessing

566

Speech

ReinforcementLearningRecognitionAlgorithmsTechnology

17793

Generative

Adversarial

Networksin

Image

Processing

59

Overtime,GoogleandGoogleDeepMindhavehiredthemajorityofthisFrontierAlcohort,currentlyholdingover60percentofthemarketshare,andareincreasinglyconsolidatingthistalentintojointteams.

GoogleandGoogleDeepMindconsolidatetheirleadershipbyacquiringthemajorityofthe

marketforFrontierAltalent

MARKETGROWTH

7/1/2013

1/L/2014

/1/2020

1//2021

/1/2021

1/1/2022

7/L/2023

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

7/1/2011/20151/1/20167/1/20167/1/2018

7/1/201/1/201211/1/2013

7/1/2022

0%

7/1/2017

DATERANGE

1/1/2010

7/1/2012

1/1/2024

OftheUStechgiants,onlyMetaismaintaininganymeaningfulmarketcompetitiontoGoogle,asMicrosoft,Amazon,AppleandIBMflatlinebelowfivepercentmarketshare.

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MetacontinuestomaintainmarketshareofFrontierAltalentasothermain

playersfallbehind

—

Apple

DATERANGE

Meta

Despiterecent,verypublicexitsoftop

executives,OpenAlcontinuestogrowits

marketshareinthisFrontierAlcohort.WhileMistralAlappearstobeflatlining,itrecentlyannounceditsintentiontoestablisha

presenceinSanFrancisco,California,primarilytosecuretalent.Anthropicpossessesauniqueapproach,whichwewilldelveintobelow,andexhibitsareducedinclinationtorecruitthe

sametalentasitscompetitors.

OpenAlkeepsattractingagrowingmarketshareofFrontierAltalent

MARKETGROWTH

DATERANGE

—AnthropicMistralAl—OpenAl

ContactHittersAretheEliteforNow

Fornow,peopleconsiderthesemembersoftheFrontierAlcohorttobeelite.Announcementsofnewmodelsareheadlinenews.Butdoesthedatabackthisup?

Whatmadetheseindividualsstandoutforbeingselectedtoworkonthemosttransformativetechnologyofourgeneration?AretheyreallytheeliteMajorLeagueplayers?

ThevisualbelowshowstherangesofZekiDatascoresfortheFrontierAl

cohortagainstacomparisongroupof30,000individualsworkinginthe

sameareasofexpertiseglobally(outsideChina).Weuseddatafromover10yearstotracktheirprogressagainstthesescores.

FrontierAlcohortoutperformscomparisongrouponallZekiDatainnovationperformanceindicators

1.00

0.90

0.80

ZEKISCORERANGE

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

VisibilityEsteem

ProductivityLeadershipInfluence

ZEKIPERFORMANCEINDICATORS

□FrontierAlcohort□Comparisongroup

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TheFrontierAlcohortscoresabovethecomparisongrouponallscores,showingtheirconsistencyofproductivityindeliveringresearchandotheroutputs,theirlevelofinitiativeandleadershipinAlprojects,theirthoughtleadershipinfluenceintheAlcommunityaswellastheirinternational

visibilityandlevelsofrecognitionandesteemamongsttheirpeers.

Theyalsoscorehigherontheirdepthofteamworkandthediversityof

peopleindifferentdisciplinestheyhaveworkedwithtoachievetheir

success.Theyhavenotworkedinasmanydifferentsectorsoftheeconomy,usuallyonlythree,asthecomparisongroupbuthaveslightlymore

professionalexperience.

FrontierAlcohortoutperformscomparisongrouponallZekiDataindicators

oflevelanddiversityteamwork

ZEKIcORERANGE

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

TeamworkDiversityProfessionalExperienceSectoralDiversity

ZEKIPERFORMANCEINDICATORS

□FrontierAlcohort□Comparisongroup

Ononelevel,youwouldexpectthesehighscoresfortheelite.Buttherewereindividualsinthecomparisongroupwhohadjustashighscoresintermsofthequalityandconsistencyoftheirworkandalsothesamespecialisations.Whydidthetalentscoutsmissthem?

Tounderstandwhy,wenarroweddownthecomparisongrouptothe

highest-performing2,000individualswhoareallemployedincompanies

thatspecialiseinthesameareasastheFrontierAlcohortandeithermatchorsurpassthemintermsofproductivityandinitiativeinproducingoutputs.

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ThishighlightedthreekeycharacteristicsthattheFrontierAlcohortpossessedthatthenewcomparisongrouplacked.

1.TheFrontierAlcohortwasmorelikelytohavetrainedataTier1university.

PercentageofindividualstrainedatTier1universities

Top2000ComparisonGroup

FrontierAICohort

0%50%

2.TheFrontierAlcohortwasthreetimesaslikelytohaveinternedatMagnificentSevencompaniesintheUS.

PercentageofindividualswhointernedatMagnificentSevencompanies

Top2000ComparisonGroup

FrontierAICohort

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

3.TheFrontierAlcohortwasmorepreparedtomovecountriestotakeupjobopportunities.

Percentageofindividualswhohavemovedoverseastotakeupjobopportunities

Top2000ComparisonGroup

FrontierAICohort

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

ThetalentscoutsdidagreatjobspottingtalentatAl-relatedconferenceswheretheFrontierAlcohortstoodoutanddeliveredmanypresentations.

ThetalentscoutsalsoassistedtheMagnificentSevencompanies'HR

departmentsidentifyinternedtalent.Thepushfactorofjobapplicants

onGoogleisalsoimmense.Wehaveidentified52AllabsatuniversitiesgloballywherethedefaultistojoinGoogle.Amazonwasthesecondmostpopularcompany,witheightAluniversitylabschoosingitastheirdefaultdestination.

TheOppositeFieldHitters

However,aspreviouslystated,aneffectiveteamiscomprisedofnumerousplayers,eachwithuniqueskillsandrolestocontributetotheteam'ssuccess.

Inbaseball,OppositeFieldHittershavetheabilitytohittheballtothe

oppositesideofthefieldfromwheretheyarestanding.Thismakesthemlesspredictableand,inmanycases,morevaluable,astherolecaninvolvemorestrengthandskill.

AmongthemajorplayersinFrontierAl,Anthropicholdsthisunique

advantage.Theirapproachishighlyselective,basedonthecarefulscalingofthebusiness.Theyhave,forexample,selectedhalfadozentheoreticalphysicistsinrecentyearswhotrainedmainlyinanichefield:holographicderivationoffieldtheoriesandgravity.Thisfieldexplorestherelationshipbetweenquantumfieldtheoriesandgravity.

WithinZekiData'sbroaderdatasetof880,000topAltalents,

only83individualsworkingat73organisationshavethisnichespecialisation.Anthropicisthemainemployer.

SandBoxAQhasalsoembracedanalternativeapproach.

ThecompanyisreportedlybuildingadifferenttypeofFrontierAlmodel,

calledalargequantitativemodel,todelivercriticaladvancesinlifesciences,financialservices,navigationandcyber.Theirmodelreportedlyistrained

moreinthefundamentalsofphysics,biology,mathematicsandchemistrythanthecontentsoftheinternet.

TheyarehiringveryfewindividualswithAl-relatedskills,andmainlyinspecialisationsthatarenotthecorefocusofthetalentscoutsfortheUStechgiants.

MainareasofAl-relatedexpertiseofSandboxAQtalent

AdvancedCryptographicSchemesandProtocols

ArtificialIntelligenceinMedicine

Cavity

Optomechanicsand

Nanomechanical

Systems

OpticalWireless

Communication

Systemsand

Technologies

AtomicMagnetometry

Techniques

Physics-InformedNeural

NetworksforScientific

Computing

Statistical

Machine

Translation

andNaturalLanguage

Processing

ComputationalMethodsinDrug

Discovery

Brain-Computer

Interfacesin

Neuroscienceand

Medicine

RegulationofChromatinStructureandFunction

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Basedon

Zeki’sdata,thePowerHittersoftomorroware

nomorelikelytocomefromtheFrontierAIcohortthananyother

partoftheAIecosystem.

ThePowerHitters

UStechgiantshavePowerHitterswithintheirteams.

Venturecapitalists(VCs)seePowerHittersasthefoundersoffutureAIunicorns.ThePowerHittermindsetandskillsetencapsulatetheentrepreneurialcultureofSiliconValleyandunderpinitssuccess.

Theeightaccreditedauthorsofthe2017researchpaper‘AttentionIsAllYouNeed’wereallGoogleresearchers,ofwhomsevenwentontofoundcompanies.Theirstoriesarenowaslegendaryasthepapertheywrote.Butistheirsuccessthenormortheexception?

OnlyfivepercentoftheFrontierAIcohorthavefoundedacompanyatanystage,apercentagethatremainsconsistentacrossbothofourcomparisongroups.Therefore,thePowerHittersintheFrontierAIcohortrepresentasmallminorityamongtheContactHitterswhoareconsistentlyrackinguptheruns.

AgenticAI

SowherearethefuturePowerHitters?

GenAIwilllikelycreateatechnologicalbridgeforanewwaveofindividualstoemerge,creatingnewmarketapplicationsinspecificverticals.VCsarenowlaser-focusedonagenticAIstart-ups.

Welookedat150keyscientistsandengineersworkingat25emerging

agenticAIstart-upcompanies.Theearlysignsarethattheindividuals

drivinginnovationinthesecompanieshavenotemergedfromtheFrontierAIcohort,buttheyarejustaslikelytohaveinternedatMagnificentSeven

companiesandarehighlymobileandwillingtotakeuprolesoverseas.TheysharemanyofthesamespecialisationsastheFrontierAIcohort,such