AI ROI行业市场前景及投资研究报告：被高估验证回报改善

AIROI系列报告（一）被高估的恐慌，四重验证回报改善2026年7月06日核心结论在近期市场对AI叙事再次产生担忧的背景下，结合供需两端，我们认为本轮AI投入在短中期仍具有可持续性。1）量化层面：我们将ARR

vs.算力折旧作为AI泡沫观察重点指标。2026年，大模型收入

(2,065亿美金)可覆盖算力折旧(2,060亿美金)，当前无需担忧硬件基础设施折旧压力下的AI商业化出口，未来重点观测二者增速剪刀差。根据我们测算，AI相关折旧2027/2028年增速分别为97%/59%，ARR增速需持续高于该水平方能覆盖投入成本。2）模型层面：对Tokens指数的担忧是短期噪音，模型收入转化效率持续改善ARR加速放量，Anthropic

已在2Q26

率先逼近盈亏平衡3）云厂CapEx：投入的健康回报清晰可见，无需过度担忧CapEx的持续投入以当年

Capex

对应次年增量云收入衡量边际资本效率，CSP

投入回报已得到验证4）大厂资产负债表：杠杆稳健，28-30E

偿债指标稳步改善海外大厂资产负债表保持健康，未来2-3年资产负债率普遍改善综上，ARR

vs.算力折旧、模型收入转化、Capex回报与资产负债表四重验证下，本轮AI投入均体现充足可持续性。我们认为，短期事件性冲击被高估，持续看好AI相关板块。注：大模型收入=ARR（年度经常性收入）；算力折旧=去除传统CapEx后的AI

CapEx，并按5年期折旧累计值模型层面：以“次年AI头部模型厂商增量ARR/当年云厂商CapEx”观察云层面：以“次年头部云厂商增量收入/当年云厂商CapEx”观察Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

21.近期市场对潜在AI泡沫再次产生担忧•••7月1号，Meta被报正在筹建云业务出售冗余算力：市场一方面视其为Capex找到出口的利好，另一方面也引发既然有算力可外租、是否印证Capex过度扩张的担忧；叠加7月2日扎克伯格在内部会议承认AI

agent进展慢于预期，进一步放大这一疑虑OAI考虑打响价格战且可能推迟上市：2026年6月，OpenAI据多家媒体报道正考虑大幅降低AI定价，以应对Anthropic等竞争对手的压力，被视为AI定价战即将打响的信号；而且据纽约时报报道，

OpenAI上市可能推迟至27年Token

maxxing让企业成本压力骤增：海外科技公司此前流行的

“Token

maxxing”（最大化AI

token消耗量）已出现明显停止或调整迹象，转向更注重实际ROI和成果产出，市场解读为高Token消耗并未带来预期价值，企业成本压力凸显••SiliconData

Token指数显著下滑：Silicon

Data

LLM

Token

Expenditure

Index2026年6月出现明显回落，

前沿模型使用量增长边际放缓Google等云厂面临短期现金流困局：Google因AI

CapEx大幅增加，2026年2Q自由现金流预计将下降接近零甚至面临转负风险，再次引发市场对Hyperscaler

现金流压力的忧虑Silicon

Data大模型token消耗指数06/26后显著下滑2.221.81.61.41.21Source:BBG,

WSJ,SiliconData

LLM

TokenExpenditure

Index,

HTIForfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

32.ARR追平折旧，AI回报拐点已至27/28年全球AI

CapEx导致的累计折旧增速放缓，ARR需至少追上折旧速度全球模型ARR仍在持续加速(USD

bn)Overseasmodel

year-end

ARROpenAI1,4001,2001,0008003.5320232.020245.5202521.42026E42.6327%1,229999AnthropicGeminixAIMistralCohere0.9n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.2.91.05.00.10.10.09.015.00.50.40.2109.837.51.81.20.62.52214%7026456001.51130%40640097%25120659%OverseasTotal11.746.5193.52000.506633202343

1570(USD

bn)Domesticmodel

year-end

ARR202420252026E累计折旧

（bnUSD)2027E累计折旧

YoY

(%)2028E2023n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.0.020240.020250.10.20.00.20.00.30.11.02026E4.6全球AI

CapEx(bnUSD)AlibabaByteDanceMoonshotAIKling0.04.0••2026E全球模型ARR首次与AI

Capex累计折旧打平，说明行业收入已经能够覆盖算力投资的折旧成本n.m.n.m.n.m.0.00.90.8DeepSeekZhipu0.22027E累计折旧增速降至97%，按5年期折旧口径，ARR只需同步增长即可持续覆盖折旧1.5MinimaxDomesticTotal0.00.11.013.0•

当前全球ARR增速仍维持300%以上，远超折旧追赶线，AI

Capex回Total

ARRYoY2.911.8310.4%47.5303.3%206.5334.7%报担忧可以缓解注：Google/Alibaba/ByteDance

24/25年ARR使用实际收入估算Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

42.模型ARR/云厂CAPEX持续改善•

全球整体模型ARR/CAPEX呈现持续改善趋势，但仍处于商业化早期阶段，收入兑现滞后于资本开支；•

海外ROI领先国内，得益于模型起步较早，企业级AI编程商业化得到验证，Claude

Code、Cursor等AI原生应用落地拉动ARR爆发；•

国内ROI稳步提升，受到模型能力逐步追赶国际、模型商业化未完全铺开、低价开源模型生态主导影响。当年云厂商CapEx对应次年头部模型公司增量ARR

（2024-26E）海内外前沿大模型API定价对比（2026/6月）40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%Input(US$/MTok)Output(US$/MTok)RegionCompanyModelReleaseOverseas

Anthropic

Claude

Fable

52026-06-0910.0050.00prev:

Claude

Opus

4.8-5.005.002.502.002.001.251.252.500.400.950.600.880.590.470.120.310.310.440.2925.0030.0015.0012.0012.002.502.50OverseasOverseasOverseasChinaOpenAI

GPT-5.5prev:

GPT-5.42026-04-23-GoogleGemini

3.1Proprev:

Gemini

3ProGrok

4.32026-02-19xAI2026-04-30-prev:

Grok

4.2Alibaba

Qwen3.7-Max2026-05-227.502.40prev:

Qwen3.5-Plus0%202420252026EChinaMoonshot

Kimi

K2.62026-04-20-4.003.00OverseasΔARR/CAPEXDomestic

ΔARR/CAPEXTotalΔARR/CAPEXprev:

Kimi

K2.5ChinaZhipuGLM-5.12026-03-273.532.65Incremental

ARR/Cloud

Capex(lag1year)prev:

GLM-5ChinaByteDance

Doubao

Seed2.0Pro

2026-02-142.351.1820245.9%0.2%4.9%202515.2%1.4%2026E34.3%16.4%31.7%prev:

Doubao

Seed1.6Overseas

ΔARR/CAPEXDomesticΔARR/CAPEXTotal

ΔARR/CAPEXChinaMiniMax

MiniMax

M3prev:

MiniMaxM2.72026-06-012026-04-241.241.2412.2%ChinaDeepSeek

DeepSeek

V4-Pro0.880.44prev:

DeepSeek

V3.2-ExpSource:BBG,

Reuters,

TheInformation,EpochAI,

FutureSearch,

Presence

AI,HTIForfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

52.模型商业模式盈利能力逐渐验证，to-B模式占优•

当前头部大模型厂商普遍处于收入保持高速增长、持续加大研发和算力投入的阶段，训推成本随ARR快速上升；Anthropic2Q26实现短期经营利润预计•Anthropic开始接近盈亏平衡：根据《华尔街日报》披露的内部预测，Anthropic

在2026年第二季度得益于每美元收入的算力成本从71美分降至56美分，有望实现约

5.59亿美元的季度经营利润，成为少数实现短期盈利的前沿大模型公司。•

商业模式或成为公司层面盈利关键：Anthropic

采取企业优先策略，80-85%的收入来自高单价、粘性强的企业客户，收入质量高、成本可控，盈利路径清晰；OpenAI消费者订阅占比更高，获客和推理成本降低仍需时间。OpenAI

GPT-5

盈利模式目前弱于AnthropicSource:Epoch

AI,WSJ,HTIForfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

63.GPU的快速迭代&高价值占比，导致CapEx居高不下2030年四家超大规模平台的总CapEx预计接近1万亿美元AI

CapEx

(mnUSD)AmazonMicrosoftAlphabetMeta2025131,81964,55191,44769,691357,50864.5%2026201,375117,057186,524134,890639,84679.0%2027E230,178184,414249,290160,254824,13528.8%2028E244,438199,374268,125173,228885,1657.4%2029E251,737232,783278,759185,981949,2607.2%2030E265,497241,158285,976196,481989,1124.2%TotalYoY150MW

（IT

load）AI

数据中心成本构成：GPU&存储占比约60%；寿命约3.5-5年，需要频繁迭代资产类别价格(m

n

USD)占比10.0%18.6%59.5%11.9%折旧年限(N

)

残值率(S

)土地

&

建筑电力

&液冷6301,1703,7507502075%0%0%0%服务器

&

存储设备其他

IT

设备（交换机等）总价3.576,300150MW

（IT

load）传统数据中心成本构成：

CPU&存储占成本约40%；寿命约6-8年，不需要频繁迭代资产类别价格(m

n

USD)占比16.6%30.8%39.5%13.2%折旧年限(N

)

残值率(S

)土地

&

建筑电力

&风冷6301,1701,5005002075%0%0%0%服务器

&

存储设备其他

IT

设备（交换机等）总价673,800Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

7Source:

VA,Dgtlinfra,HTI3.

但云收入增量验证CapEx投入，实际ROI会更高每1美金C

apEx对应的云收入增量%•计算仅纳入云收入增量，实际CapEx赋能范围远不止于此：CSPs202439.8%54.4%34.9%52.1%8.4%202531.9%44.5%32.7%75.2%36.3%2026E37.0%49.7%45.9%51.1%46.6%2027E30.5%36.4%30.7%45.0%48.3%2028E31.0%29.6%27.2%49.0%49.3%AMZNMSFTGOOGLORCL•GOOGL：AI驱动搜索广告优化、Gemini训练及推理BABANeoCloudCRWVNBIS•MSFT：Copilot全线产品赋能、OpenAI合作算力投入57.3%12.8%-2.3%37.0%50.3%2.7%73.9%71.4%9.8%37.6%37.7%61.0%37.9%43.3%30.9%IREN•Amazon：大模型训练、AI驱动电商/广告每1美金C

apEx对应的云收入增量%

(5年生命周期)变现提效CSPs2024199.1%271.9%174.7%260.4%41.9%2025159.4%222.5%163.7%376.0%181.6%2026E185.1%248.3%229.3%255.7%233.2%2027E152.7%182.0%153.4%224.8%241.5%2028E155.0%147.8%136.1%244.9%246.3%AMZNMSFTGOOGLORCLBABANeoCloudCRWVNBIS•NeoCloud在28年后成为第二选择：CoreWeave，IREN，Nebius这类新云的回报在28年显著降低，主要因为大厂CSPs的自建中心已完善，从成本和稳定性的维度，NeoCloud已不具吸引力286.5%64.1%-11.3%184.8%251.4%13.3%369.3%357.1%49.2%187.9%169.6%305.1%170.4%216.7%154.4%IREN计算原理：以当年CapEx对应次年增量云收入（lag

1年）衡量边际资本效率，假设GPU使用寿命为5年，所有上表数据乘5得到下表。Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

8Source:

VA,HTI3.大厂现金流拐点在28年显现大厂自由现金流26-27年承压，28年AI数据中心放量后，FCF开始反弹CSPs自由现金流

(mn

USD)250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000191,574160,735114,788106,94788,88262,31172,76473,266202569,49560,70824,31058,31736,81338,21915,47020,66514,27726,17621,5148,471202311,807

11,19420242026E2027E2028E2029E-6,0632030E-9,107(6,757)-23,686-50,000-100,000-48,315-41,114AMZNMSFTGOOGLORCLMETABABA当前Capex增速远高于OCF增速,FCF短期转负,2028年后剪刀差有望逐步收窄。背后有三重逻辑:1）经营性现金流(OCF)增速扩张:

云业务通过规模效应改善自身利润率，同时带动集团整体的利润率提升，逐步提振OCF的增速；2）Capex具有前置性：

北美数据中心从动工到投产周期较长,通常需2年左右，投入在前收入在后，二者天然错配;3）硬件涨价Capex二次上修：近期存储等关键物料缺货推升价格，导致原定Capex预算被动再次上调;

且长协锁量不锁价：CSPs须预留充足Capex预算以对冲后续涨价，因此当前的量存在一定冗余。Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

9Source:

VA,HTI3.CSPs大厂负债率稳定，利息保障倍数改善，资产负债表仍健康大厂标普评级均在投资级以上公司代码S&

P

评级S&

P

展望S&

P

最近动作（日期/原因）覆盖的科技龙头标普评级均为投资级，信用资质稳健M

icrosoftM

SFTA

A

A稳定AAA长期维持•

评级主要锚定

Debt/EBITDA、OCF/Debt

等杠杆与偿债指标A

lphabetA

m

azonM

etaG

O

O

G

LA

M

ZNM

ETAO

R

C

LB

A

B

AA

A

+A

A稳定稳定稳定负面稳定A

A

+自2017-02起稳定维持A

A

、稳定•

在

AICapEx上行背景下，需跟踪未来评级下调风险（ORCL

已转负面）Debt/EBITDA

杠杆下行、OCF/Debt

改善，偿债能力边际向好•

评级下调风险有限，部分标的存在上调空间A

A

-B

B

BA

+A

A

-自2022-08起稳定B

B

B

（2022

C

erner举债后下调），展望转负面2025-07-02；capex三倍增、FOF转负O

racle•

对应融资成本下降、利息压力趋缓，利好市场信心A

libabaA+长期维持、展望稳定700.0%Debt/EBITDA比例显著改善OCF/Debt：经营性现金流增速大于借贷增速606.6%600.0%500.0%400.0%300.0%200.0%100.0%0.0%515.4%509.1%450.0%427.4%486.2%455.2%400.0%350.0%300.0%250.0%200.0%150.0%100.0%50.0%360.2%333.5%402.0%401.3%329.4%335.2%269.9%286.0%204.9%239.5%230.3%197.9%161.2%46.4%2030E167.9%145.5%153.7%134.0%121.2%90.1%202596.1%76.9%2027E63.6%2028E53.8%2029E0.0%20252026EAMZN2027EGOOGL2028EMeta2029E2030E2026EAMZNMSFTGOOGLORCLBABAMSFTORCLBABAForfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

10Source:

VA,HTIAPPENDIX

1CapEx(mn

USD)增速平稳350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000CapEx激增236561,05363,64531,48524,64052,72940,14022,28132,25125,13923,54810,21213,184-20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EAmazonMicrosoftAlphabetMetaOracle大厂CapEx增速放缓，部分厂商在29-30年增速转负CapEx

(YoY)AmazonMicrosoftAlphabetMeta2023202457.4%58.2%62.9%37.8%-21.0%-6.5%202558.8%45.1%74.1%87.1%209.0%167.9%2026E52.8%81.3%104.0%93.6%162.4%46.6%2027E14.3%57.5%33.7%18.8%65.9%64.8%2028E2029E2030E5.5%3.6%2.6%5.6%-17.2%17.7%2.4%-14.0%92.8%-35.6%6.2%8.1%7.6%8.1%12.8%9.3%3.0%16.8%4.0%7.4%-12.3%-7.1%OracleBABA-8.8%-18.1%Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

11Source:

VA,HTIAPPENDIX

2•

由于AI价值链横跨模型、云基础设施和企业应用多个环节，单一维度难以全面衡量AI商业闭环。因此，我们采用自上而下的多角度验证框架，观察AI投入回报改善趋势：•

模型层面：以“次年AI头部模型厂商增量ARR/当年云厂商CapEx”观察•

云层面：以“次年头部云厂商增量收入/当年云厂商CapEx

”观察国内CapEx投入显著低于海外(USD

bn)Overseascloud

capexAmazonMicrosoftAlphabetMeta202352.728.132.327.38.7202483.044.552.537.36.92025131.864.691.469.721.212.715.07.02026E201.4116.9186.6134.955.739.745.035.027.0OraclexAIOpenAIAnthropicCoreweaveTotal0.55.614.8428.3149.5229.8842.0(USD

bn)Domesticcloud

capexBaidu20231.620241.220251.82026E1.8TencentBABAByteDanceTelcosGov,

enterprises&

othersTotal3.14.97.48.88.134.09.34.611.616.314.163.713.212.311.818.415.473.214.718.030.026.920.9110.0Forfulldisclosure

ofrisks,valuationmethodologies

and

target

priceformationon

allHTIrated

stocks,

please

refer

tothe

latest

fullreport

on

our

website

at

12APPENDIX

2重要信息披露本研究报告由(HTIJKK)和动。国际分销，国际是由国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited

(HSIPL)，Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，IMPORTANT

DISCLOSURESThis

research

report

is

distributed

by

Haitong

International,

a

global

brand

name

for

the

equity

research

teams

of

Haitong

International

Research

Limited

(“HTIRL”),Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited

(“HSIPL”),

Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.

(“HTIJKK”),

Haitong

International

Securities

Company

Limited

(“HTISCL”),

and

anyother

members

within

the

Haitong

International

Securities

Group

of

Companies

(“HTISG”),

each

authorized

to

engage

in

securities

activities

in

its

respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证Analyst

Certification:我，张晓飞

，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Xiaofei

Zhang

,certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

30

calendar

days

after

theresearch

report

is

published.我，王宪策，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Nathan

Wang,certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

30

calendar

days

after

theresearch

report

is

published.13APPENDIX

2我，崔冰睿

，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Bingrui

Cui,certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

30

calendar

days

after

theresearch

report

is

published.我，吴叡霖

，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Louis

Ng,

certifythat

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

30

calendar

days

after

theresearch

report

is

published.我，王晴

，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Rachel

Wang,certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

30

calendar

days

after

theresearch

report

is

published.14APPENDIX

2利益冲突披露Conflict

ofInterestDisclosures国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTI

and

some

of

its

affiliates

may

engage

in

investment

banking

and

/

or

serve

as

a

market

maker

or

hold

proprietary

trading

positions

of

certain

stocks

orcompanies

in

this

research

report.

As

far

as

this

research

report

is

concerned,

the

following

are

the

disclosure

matters

related

to

such

relationship

(As

the

followingdisclosure

does

not

ensure

timeliness

and

completeness,

please

send

an

email

to

ERD-Disclosure@

if

timely

and

comprehensive

information

is

needed).No

Disclosure15APPENDIX

2评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本

–

TOPIX,

韩国

–

KOSPI,

台湾

–

TAIEX,

印度

–

Nifty100,

美国

–

SP500;

其他所有中国概念股

–

MSCIChina.Ratings

Definitions

(from

1

Jul2020):Haitong

International

uses

a

relative

rating

system

using

Outperform,

Neutral,

or

Underperform

for

recommending

the

stocks

we

cover

to

investors.

Investors

shouldcarefully

read

the

definitions

of

all

ratings

used

in

Haitong

International

Research.

In

addition,

since

Haitong

International

Research

contains

more

completeinformation

concerning

the

analyst's

views,

investors

should

carefully

read

Haitong

International

Research,

in

its

entirety,

and

not

infer

the

contents

from

the

ratingalone.

In

any

case,

ratings

(or

research)

should

not

be

used

or

relied

upon

as

investment

advice.

An

investor's

decision

to

buy

or

sell

a

stock

should

depend

on

individualcircumstances

(such

as

the

investor's

existing

holdings)

and

other

considerations.Analyst

StockRatingsOutperform:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

exceed

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.Neutral:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

in

line

with

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.

Forpurposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.Underperform:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

below

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.Benchmarks

for

each

stock’s

listed

region

are

as

follows:

Japan

–

TOPIX,

Korea

–

KOSPI,

Taiwan

–

TAIEX,

India

–

Nifty100,

US

–

SP500;

for

all

other

China-conceptstocks

–

MSCIChina.16APPENDIX

2截至2026年3月31日国际股票研究评级分布截至2025年12月31日国际股票研究评级分布优于大市中性(持有)5.8%弱于大市优于大市中性(持有)6.0%弱于大市国际股票研究覆盖率投资银行客户*93.9%1.9%0.2%0.0%93.9%3.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%4.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年9月30日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本

–

TOPIX,

韩国

–

KOSPI,

台湾

–

TAIEX,

印度

–

Nifty100;

其他所有中国概念股

–

MSCIChina.17APPENDIX

2HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,

HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,as

of

March

31,

2026

as

of

December

31,

2025OutperformNeutral(hold)5.8%UnderperformOutperformNeutral(hold)6.0%UnderperformHTIEquityResearchCoverageIBclients*93.9%1.9%0.2%0.0%93.9%3.0%0.1%0.0%1.0%4.0%*Percentage

of

investment

banking

clientsineach

rating

category.BUY,

Neutral,andSELL

intheabovedistributioncorrespond

to

ourcurrent

ratingsof

Outperform,

Neutral,andUnderperform.For

purposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.

Please

note

that

stocks

with

an

NR

designation

are

notincludedinthetable

above.Previous

ratingsystemdefinitions

(until30

Jun2020):BUY:The

stock’s

total

return

over

thenext

12-18

monthsisexpected

toexceed

thereturnof

itsrelevant

broadmarket

benchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

in

line

with

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.Forpurposesonlyof

FINRA/NYSE

ratingsdistribution

rules,ourNeutralrating

fallsintoaholdrating

category.SELL:

Thestock’s

totalreturn

over

thenext

12-18

monthsisexpected

to

bebelowthereturnofits

relevant

broadmarket

benchmark,asindicated

below.Benchmarks

for

each

stock’s

listed

region

are

as

follows:

Japan

–

TOPIX,

Korea

–

KOSPI,

Taiwan

–

TAIEX,India

–

Nifty100;

for

allother

China-concept

stocks

–

MSCIChina.18APPENDIX

2国际非评级研究：国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:

Haitong

International

publishes

quantitative,

screening

or

short

reports

which

may

rank

stocks

according

to

valuation

andother

metrics

or

may

suggest

prices

based

on

possible

valuation

multiples.

Such

rankings

or

suggested

prices

do

not

purport

to

be

stock

ratings

or

target

prices

orfundamental

values

and

are

for

information

only.国际A股覆盖：发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰国际使用与国泰

证券不同的评级系统，所以证券（601211.CH），

国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国国际与国泰

证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong

International

Coverage

of

A-Shares:

Haitong

International

may

cover

and

rate

A-Shares

that

are

subject

to

the

Hong

Kong

Stock

Connect

scheme

withShanghai

and

Shenzhen.

GUOTAI

HAITONG

SECURITIES

(601211

CH),

the

ultimate

parent

company

of

HTISG

based

in

Shanghai,

covers

and

publishes

research

onthese

same

A-Shares

for

distribution

in

mainland

China.

However,

the

rating

system

employed

by

GTHS

differs

from

that

used

by

HTI

and

as

a

result

there

may

be

adifference

in

the

HTI

and

GTHS

ratings

for

the

same

A-share

stocks.国际优质100

A股（Q100）指数：选过程，并结合对国泰

证券

A股团队自下而上的研究。国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由国泰证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong

International

Quality

100

A-share

(Q100)

Index:

HTI’s

Q100

Index

is

a

quant

product

that

consists

of

100

of

the

highest-quality

A-shares

under

coverage

atGTHS

in

Shanghai.

These

stocks

are

carefully

selected

through

a

quality-based

screening

process

in

combination

with

a

review

of

the

GTHS

A-share

team’s

bottom-upresearch.

The

Q100

constituent

companies

are

reviewed

quarterly.19APPENDIX

2盟浪