bcg -人工智能与自然保护事业 AI and the Business of Nature Conservation

CLIMATECHANGEANDSUSTAINABILITY

AIandtheBusinessofNatureConservation

ByEdenCottee-Jones,TorstenKurth,VukTnifkovic,SimonGillet,AmandaHyman,MatthiasGehder,andEricaBerghman

ARTICLESEPTEMBER17,20268MINREAD

Artificialintelligencehasgivenconservationistsabetterpairofeyes.Machinelearningcancountspeciesincamera-trapimages,andsatellitemodelscanspotforestlossalmostasithappens.ThesetoolsprovidegovernmentsandNGOswithaclearerviewofecologicaldecline.Yet

observationalonedoeslittletochangetheactivitiescausingthatdecline.Itprovidesabettermeasureofthetiderunningout,ratherthanawaytoturnit.

ThelargeropportunityforAlistoreshapetheproductsandpracticestoimproveperformance,productivity,andefficiencywhileatthesametimereducingthepressuresthatdrivenatureloss.Atseveralpointsinthevaluechain,companiesaredesigningmoreselectivecrop-protection

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chemicals,applyingagriculturalinputsmoreprecisely,anddevelopingalternativestocommoditieslinkedtodeforestation.

Thesearethreecasesrepresentingamuchbroaderopportunity,withpotentialapplicationsacrossthemajordriversofnatureloss.Ineachcase,theenvironmentalbenefitistiedtoabusinessrationalecompaniesalreadyunderstand.

·Safercropprotectioncanimproveproductperformanceandreducedevelopmentrisk.

·Precisionagriculturecanlowerinputcostswhilesustainingyields.

·Alternativeingredientscanprovideamorecontrollablesourceofsupply.

Together,theseapplicationscreateanewclassofconservationopportunitiesfinancedthroughresearchanddevelopment,procurement,andoperatingbudgets.(SeeExhibit1.)

EXHIBIT1

AIOffersSolutionsAgainstFiveMajorDriversofNatureLoss

Relativeglobalimpactofnaturelossdrivers,%

(indicative)

Land-usechange

Monitoringdeforestation,tracingsupplychains,advancingsyntheticbiology,developingdigitaltwins

Over-exploitation

Monitoringillegalfishing,monitoringpoaching,monitoringillegalwildlifetradetracingsupplychains

Climatechange

Monitoringmethaneemissions,optimizingtheindustrialprocess,optimizingpowergrids,innovatinginbatterytechnology

Pollution

Monitoringmarineplasticpollution,detectingenvironmentalhazards,deployingprecisionagriculture,advancingsyntheticbiology

Invasivespecies

Monitoringinvasivespecies

Otherdriversofnatureloss(e.g.,fire,tourism)

Alsolutionsagainsteachdriver

30

23

14

11

9

Sources;IPBES,2019;BCGanalysis.

Note:Showsdirectdriversonly.Percentagesdonotsumto100duetorounding.

Companies,investors,conservationists,andgovernmentsallhaveaninterestinseeingthesetechnologiessucceed.Eachalsohasaroletoplayinremovingtheobstaclesthatcurrentlypreventthemfromreachingscale.

AICanMakeCropProtectionMoreSelective

Agriculturalintensificationthreatens34%ofapproximately47,000assessedspecies,accordingtotheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature.Fertilizersalterwaterways,whilecrop-

protectionchemicalscandisrupttheinsectsandsoilorganismsonwhichhealthyagriculturalsystemsdepend.Arecentanalysisacross26countriesfoundnegativeeffectsonsoil

invertebratesin70%ofthesitesexamined.

Theproblemisdifficulttoaddressonceachemicalisalreadyinwidespreaduse.Environmentaleffectsmaybecomefullyapparentonlyafterapprovalanddeploymentatscale.Atthesame

time,withdrawinganestablishedproductcanbeeconomicallyandpoliticallycontentious.Broadereffortstoreducepesticideusehavealsoencounteredresistancefromfarmers

concernedaboutyields,croplosses,andtheabsenceofeffectivesubstitutes.

AIcreatesanotherroutebyenablingcompaniestodevelopcrop-protectionproductsthatremaineffectiveagainstweedsandpestswhilereducingharmtootherspecies.Traditionaldiscovery

processessynthesizeandscreenlargenumbersofcompounds,withsomeenvironmentaleffectsbecomingapparentonlyduringfieldtrialsorlaterstagesofdevelopment.Machine-learning

modelscanevaluateproposedcompoundsmuchearlier.Theycanpredictproteinstructures,identifybiologicaltargetsspecifictoapest,screenlargelibrariesofcandidatemolecules,andassesshowthosemoleculesmayinteractwithnon-targetspecies.

CompaniessuchasBayerandEnkoChemareapplyingtechniquesdevelopedinpharmaceuticalresearchtocropprotection.BayerisusingasystemnamedCropKeytohelpmatchtheprotein

structureofaweedwithachemicalmoleculethattargetsit,withoutimpactingotherplantsor

wildlife.Enkocombinesmachinelearning,DNA-encodedlibraries,andstructuralbiologyto

identifynewmoleculesandmodesofaction.Itsplatformidentifiedanovelweed-controltargetandbiologicallyactiveinhibitorsinfourmonths,compressingaprocessthathistoricallytookfarlonger.

Thecommercialpropositionisfasterdiscoveryandmoredifferentiatedproducts,ratherthanenvironmentalperformancealone.Crop-protectioncompaniescanreducethetimeandcostinvolvedinfindingviablecompounds.Farmersgainproductsthatprotectyieldswhilereducingenvironmentalrisks,strengtheningtheirpositionwithregulators,buyers,andconsumers.

Scientificpromisewillstillhavetotranslateintoreliablefieldperformance,affordable

production,andregulatoryapproval.Earlytrialswithagriculturalbusinessescanestablish

efficacyunderrealconditions,whileprocurementcommitmentsandtargetedincentivescangivedevelopersgreaterconfidencethatdemandwillexistonceaproductreachesthemarket.

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PrecisionAgricultureCanCutInputsandCosts

Moreselectivechemistrywilltaketimetodevelopandcommercialize.Asecondleverisalreadyavailablethroughusingfarfeweroftheinputsfarmersrelyontoday.Forfarmers,environmentalimpactandoperatingexpensesarecloselyconnected.Fertilizeraloneaccountsfor33%to45%ofoperatingcostsforUScornandwheatproducers.Crop-protectionproductsarealsoapplied

acrosslargeareasbecauseconventionalmachinerycannotalwaysdistinguishpreciselybetweentheplantsthatneedtreatmentandthosethatdonot.

AI-enabled

precisionagriculture

changesthatcalculation.Systemscombinereal-timeinformationaboutsoil,weather,crops,andfieldconditionstodeterminewhereinputsareneededandwhere

theycanbeavoided.

JohnDeere’sSee&Spraysystem,forexample,usesboom-mountedcamerasanddeepneural

networkstodistinguishweedsfromcropsinrealtime,includinggreenweedsgrowingamong

greencrops.Acrossmorethan5millionacresduringthe2025growingseason,customersreducednon-residualherbicideusebynearly50%,savingcloseto31milliongallonsofherbicidemix.

Trialsalsoindicatedhighersoybeanyieldsthanconventionalbroadcastapplications.See&Sprayissoldonbettercropandcostperformance,whichgivesthetechnologyacredibleroutetoscale.Farmerspurchaselessherbicideandcanimproveyields,whilefewerchemicalsenterthe

surroundinglandscape.Thatdirectreturnhelpsexplainwhytheprecision-agriculturemarketisgrowingatroughly20%ayear.

Adoptionstilldependsontherealitiesoffarming.Equipmentmustworkreliablyindifficultfieldconditions,integratewithexistingmachinery,andoperatewhereconnectivityisweak.The

strongestinvestmentswillpaireffectivesoftwarewiththedistribution,service,andfinancingneededtoputittoworkacrossfarms,crops,andregions.

AlternativeIngredientsCanReplaceLand-Intensive

Commodities

Land-usechangeisthegreatestdriverofnatureloss.Theconversionofforests,grasslands,andotherhabitatsforagriculture,extraction,anddevelopmentisassociatedwiththedeclining

conservationstatusof72%ofthreatenedspecies.

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Palmoilillustratestheunderlyingeconomicchallenge.Itischeap,versatile,andexceptionally

productive,whichiswhyitappearsinproductsrangingfromcosmeticstopackagedfood.Meetingdemand,however,hascontributedtotheclearanceofmorethan30millionhectaresoftropical

forestinMalaysiaandIndonesiaalone.

Fermentationoffersanotherwaytoproducecomparableoils.Companiescanusemicroorganismssuchasyeasttocreateingredientswithmanyofthesamefunctionalproperties.Thechallenge

hasbeenengineeringthoseorganismstoproduceconsistentoutputs,attheyieldandcost

requiredbymanufacturers.Historically,thatprocessinvolvedyearsoflaboratorytrialanderror.

AIcanacceleratedevelopment.Machine-learningmodelscananalyzegenomicdatasets,predictwhichgeneticmodificationsaremostlikelytowork,andoptimizethemanyvariablesinvolvedinfermentation.Thatallowsresearcherstoscreenmorepossibilitiesdigitally,concentrate

laboratoryworkonthemostpromisingstrains,andcompressdevelopmentcyclesthatoncetookyears.

CompaniessuchasC16Biosciences,ZeroAcreFarms,andSMEYareusingtheseapproachestodevelopoilsforcosmetics,food,andotherconsumerproducts.C16’sfirstproduct,madewithitsbioengineeredoil,soldoutinlessthanthreehours.Personalcareoffersanaturalentrypoint

becausehigherpricesmakeiteasiertoabsorbthecostofanewproductionprocess.Investorshavecommittedtensofmillionsofdollarstocompaniesinthesector.

Otherbusinessesareaddressingtheproductionconstraintsthatdeterminewhethersuch

ingredientscanmovebeyondpremiumapplications.DifferentialBio,forexample,usesAIto

optimizemicrobialstrains,feedstocks,andfermentationconditions.Theseimprovementswillbeessentialtoachievingtheconsistency,yield,andeconomicsrequiredforcommodity-scale

production.

Forlargeconsumercompanies,alternativeingredientscouldeventuallyprovideamore

controllablesourceofsupplywhilereducingexposuretothereputationalriskssurroundingpalmoil.Thepotentialmarketissubstantial.Palmoilisworthanestimated$78billiontodayandcouldreach$114billionwithinthenextdecade.

Reachingthemassmarketwillrequiremuchlowerproductioncosts.Fermentationyieldsmustimprove,feedstocksmustbecomemoreconsistent,andmanufacturingmustscaleenoughtocompetewithpalmoilatroughly$1perkilogram.Newfoodingredientswillalsorequire

regulatoryapproval.AIcanimprovethedevelopmentandproductionprocess,butcostwilldeterminehowwidelythesealternativesareadopted.

TurnWhiteSpaceintoMarkets

OurresearchpointstoconsiderablewhitespacewhereAlcanactdirectlyonthedriversofnatureloss.(SeeExhibit2.)Theexamplesdifferintheirtechnology,economics,andmaturity,butthey

shareacentralfeature.Eachcanreduceecologicalpressurebysolvinganoperatingproblemforacustomer.Andtheopportunitiesarebroad.Alcantracecriticalmineralsthroughcomplex

supplychains,distinguishorefromwasteinmining,andhelpdeveloperssteerinfrastructureawayfromhigh-biodiversityhabitats.

EXHIBIT2

AIUseCasesNeedtoAddresstheDriversofNatureLoss

Scaleddeployment

Broadcommercialuseandprovenoutcomes

Safercrop

agricultureAlternative

ingredients

Experimental

Pilots,limiteddeployments,or

unproveneconomics

ObservingnaturelossChangingitsdrivers

ImprovevisibilityandActdirectlyonactivities

measuremipactsthatdrivenatureloss

Observationsoftechnologystartups(representative)

Source:BCGanalysis,

Note:Eachdotrepresentsanaturetechnologyusecase.PositioningisillustrativebutreflectsBCGanalysisof-1,800early-stagetechnologycompaniesscannedusingkeywordsrelatedtonatureandAI.

Convertingthoseopportunitiesintoscaledbusinesseswillrequiretheorganizationsthatbuy,finance,validate,andregulatethesetechnologiestoaddressdifferentbarriers.

·Businessescanfindcompetitiveadvantageinconservingnature.Companiescanmaptheiruseofharmfulinputs,theirlargestcosts,andtheirexposuretoland-intensiveorconstrainedcommodities.ThatexercisecanrevealopportunitiestouseAltoadoptsaferproducts,

reduceresourceuse,orreplacevulnerableingredients.Largebuyerscanalsohelpcreatemarketsthroughpaidtrials,co-developmentagreements,andlong-termprocurement

commitmentsthatgivesupplierstheconfidencetoinvestincommercializationandscale.

·Investorscanfinancedeploymentaswellasdiscovery.Manyofthesetechnologiesdonotfitneatlyintoaconventionalventure-capitalmodel.Theyrequirespecialistscientificand

industrialknowledge,extendedperiodsofoperationalvalidation,and,insomecases,

significantinvestmentinequipmentormanufacturingcapacity.Thatcanleavethem

betweenAl-focusedinvestorsthatlacksectorexpertiseandindustrialinvestorsthatarelessequippedtoassessthetechnology.Purpose-builtinvestmentvehiclescanbringthose

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capabilitiestogether.Capitalshouldalsobematchedtothestageofdevelopment.Venture

fundingmaybeappropriatefordiscovery,whileprojectfinance,infrastructurecapital,or

blendedstructuresmaybebettersuitedtomanufacturinganddeployment.Anchor-buyer

commitmentsandmultiyearprocurementcontractscanprovidetheevidenceofdemand

neededtounlockthatcapital.Investorscanalsouseportfoliocompaniesasearlycustomersandtestbeds,helpingtechnologiesdemonstratevalueinoperatingenvironments.

ConservationorganizationscanguidetheapplicationsofAIfornature.TheirscientificandlocalexpertisecanidentifywhereAIapplicationsaremostlikelytoreducesystemic

pressureonnature,establishmeaningfulmeasuresofimpact,andassesspossibleeffects

onnon-targetspecies.Theycanalsodeterminewheredigitalorlaboratoryevidenceneedstobesupportedbyfieldverification.ThatroleshouldalsoextendtoAI’sownenvironmental

footprint,helpingtoensurethattheinfrastructurebehindthesesolutionsisbuiltand

operatedassustainablyaspossible.Byhelpingbusinesses,investors,andconsumers

distinguishmeaningfulimprovementsfromweakclaims,conservationorganizationscanstrengthencredibilityandhelpearly-adoptingcompaniesbuilddemandforproductsthatdeliverdemonstrablebenefits.

Governmentscanaddresstheconstraintsthatmarketscannotresolvealone.Rigorousandtimelyregulatorypathwayscangivenewpro