高盛-企业宏观镜：微观世界的宏观指南-Corporate Macroscope：A Macro Guide to the Micro World-202610

【价值目录】网整理：

https://www

CorporateMacroscope

AMacroGuidetotheMicroWorld

October2026

PeterOppenheimer

ChiefGlobalEquityStrategist

GoldmanSachsInternational

+

44-207552-5782|peter.oppenheimer@

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,

orgoto/research/hedge.html

.

Keytakeaways

Thedefiningfeatureoftoday’smacroenvironmentisarapidlyintensifyingcompetitionforcapital.Governmentsareborrowingmoretofunddefence,energysecurityandinfrastructure,whilecompaniesarecommittingunprecedentedsumstoAI,datacentresanddigitalcapacity.Thissimultaneousdemandhasrepricedcapitalacrossmarkets.Thirty-yeargovernmentyieldsinGermanyandJapanwereclosetozeroasrecentlyas2022;today,ratesareelevated,equityriskpremiaarecompressedandfinancingismoreexpensive.Forcorporateleaders,thecostandavailabilityofcapitalareagaincentraltoinvestment,fundingandstrategicdecisions.

Financialconditionsaretighteningacrossthecurve,andsovereignriskshaverisen.Ten-yearyieldsremainhigh,buttwo-yearrateshavealsosoldoffasmarketsreassessthetimingandscaleofmonetaryeasing.InEurope,theGerman10-yearyieldhasrisenabout35bpsinceearlyAugust,whiletheFrenchyieldhasincreasedroughly100bpto4.9%.Sovereignspreadshavewidenedmateriallyandcreditspreadsareshowingearlysignsofpressure.Boththelevelandspeedofthesemovesmatter:arapidrepricingcandisruptissuancewindows,raiserefinancingcostsandcomplicatedecisionsonleverage,acquisitionsandinvestment.Weestimateeach10bprisein10-yearGermanyieldstakesabout1%fromSTOXXEurope,andeach10bpriseinsovereignspreadsalsotakesanadditional1%fromindexvaluations,withBanksbeingthemostsensitivetospreadwidening.

Resilientgrowthissupportingprofits.Euro-areaactivityhasheldupbetterthanexpected,earningsrevisionsremainpositiveandconsensusforecastsabout22%year-on-yearEPSgrowthinthesecondhalfof2026,or15%excludingCommodities.Thatsaid,EPSgrowthislikelytoslowin2027,mainlybecauseEnergyearningsgrowthwilllikelydetractfromindexearningsratherthanaddingasithasdonethisyear,butalsobecausehighercostswillbecometrickierforcompaniestodigest.Thatsaid,westillexpect5%EPSgrowthin2027andthereareupsideriskstothisgivenstrongstructuraltailwindsinIndustrials,FinancialsandTechnology.Growthisstillsupportive,butthehurdleratehasrisensharply.

T.heAIcycleiscreatingahistoricinvestmentopportunityandanequallysignificantfundingrequirement.CapitalexpenditureamongNorthAmericanAA-ratedissuersgrew65%yearonyearinthesecondquarter,thetenthconsecutivequarterabove35%.AI-relatedborrowersaccountforaboutone-quarterofUSinvestment-gradegrosssupplyand44%ofUSconvertibleissuance,whichhasreached$135bnthisyear.Theopportunityextendsbeyondtechnologyintopower,utilities,industrialequipmentandinfrastructure.

Europe’scashgenerationandhealthyprivate-sectorbalancesheetsofferavaluablecounterweighttotighterfinance.Theprivateeconomyrestsonthreerelativelystrongpillars:consumerswithhealthybalancesheets,well-capitalisedfinancialinstitutionsandcorporateswithleveragearoundorbelowhistoricalaverages.Europealsooffersafreecashflowyieldofroughly5.5%,versus3.5%fortheUSandabout2%forthelargestUScompanies.Buybacks,limitedequityissuanceandrisingM&AmeanineffectequitysupplyisshrinkinginEurope.Atthesametime,weseecontinuedmodestbuyingofEuropeanequitybyglobalinvestors(lesssodomesticinvestors)astheyseektodiversifyconcentratedpositionedintheUSandelsewhere.

Focuschart:German10YBundandEURIGyieldshaverisenandarenow

atorabovetheSTOXX600dividendyield

0002040608101214161820222426

SXXPDYEURIG

Germany10-year

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

(%)

2

Source:Datastream,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Longratesstaysticky–governmentspend&highernear-terminflation

CentralBankrates

GSPolicyRateForecast(%)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

FED

ECB

BOE

21222324252627

US(PCE)

EuroArea(HICP)UK(CPI)

21222324252627

Inflationstaysabovetargetin2026

HeadlineInflation%changey/y

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Long.termyieldsremainelevated

10-YearBondYield,GSForecast(%)

6

5

US

Germany

UK

4

3

2

1

0

-1

21222324252627

Source:Datastream,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

3

4

MacroDriversofSectorPerformance

EuropeansectorsensitivitytoGDP

CyclicalsectorshaveahigherbetaofearningstoWorldGDPthandefensiveones

BetaofearningstoWorldGDP

BetaofearningstoEuropeGDP(RHS)

CyclicalsDefensives

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

1

1

8

6

4

2

0

secos;w

Europeantr12mfdEPS

2

0

BasicResources

Autos&Parts

Energy

Banks

Travel&Leisure

Chemicals

IndustrialsG&S

Europe

Retailers

FinancialSrv.

Technology

Construction&Mats

ConsumerPrd&Svs

Media

Insurance

RealEstate

Telecom

Drug&GroceryStores

Food,Bev,Tobacco

Utilities

HealthCare

Source:Datastream,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5

Sectorsensitivitytobondyields

CorrelationofRelativePerformanceofGlobalSectors&StyleswiththeUS10yBondYield(weeklychanges)

Outperform

whenBYrise

-8%

-3%

0%

-8%

-2%

-2%

-5%

-7%

-3%

-15%

-4%

-19%

-3%

-22%

-9%

-23%

-1%

-31%

-14%

-32%

-21%

-39%

-19%

-41%

-33%

20%

21%

17%

Correlationsince2010

Correlationsince2022

UnderperformwhenBYrise

CyclicalsFinancials

Energy

Value

SmallUSExposure ChemicalsIndustrials

MediaBasicResourcesTechnology

Growth Travel&Leisure RetailersConsumerStaples HealthCareTelecom

UtilitiesConsumerPrd,SvsDefensives

RealEstate

10%

8%

8%

8%

2%

5%

0%

7%

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%

39%

27%

18%

17%

24%

21%

Source:Datastream,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

6

Mappingthesectors

MSCIACWorld

Value/Growth/Cyclical/Defensive

Cyclical

12

Materials●

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

FinancialServicesSemiconductors&

Semiconductor

Automobiles&Components

Banks

Equipment

●

ConsumerDurables&Apparel

Energy

TechnologyHardware&

CapitalGoods

Insurance●

Transportation

Equipment

MSCIACWorld

Media&

Entertainment

ConsumerDiscretionaryDistribution&Retail

ConsumerServices●

RealEstate

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14

Commercial&

Software&Services

Telecommunication

Services

ProfessionalServices

Defensive

Utilities

ConsumerStaplesDistribution&Retail

FoodBeverage&Tobacco

HealthCareEquipment&Services

Value

Household&PersonalProductsPharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciences

Quality/

Growth

b

-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

Note:Formoredetails,pleasesee:Cyclicalsvs.Defensives:Aglobalimplementation

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

7

TheRAIisbasedon27pair-tradesacrossassetclassesmeasuredonz-scoresrel.tolast2years'performance,seeApril2019GOALfordetailsSource:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

8

RiskAppetitesensitivity

OurRiskAppetiteIndicatorhasincreased

RiskAppetiteIndicator(GSRAII)

Financials,Industrials,andConsumerDiscretionarybenefitthemostfromariseinourRiskAppetiteIndicator

5ycorrelationofw/wrelativereturns;STOXX600sectors

0.600.400.200.00-0.20-0.40

-0.60-0.80

RiskAppetiteIndicator

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

9

Bondyieldsensitivity

Nominalyieldshaverisensharplyin2026

10-YearBondYields(%)

CommoditiesproducersandFinancialsbenefitthemostfromahigheryield

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

5ycorrelationofw/wrelativereturns;STOXX600sectors

US

Germany

UK

1617181920212223242526

10yBY

US

Germany

0.400.300.200.100.00-0.10-0.20-0.30

-0.40-0.50

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

10

Inflationsensitivity

Market.impliedinflationhaspickedupandremainselevated

5.0

US

4.5Germany

4.0UK3.5

3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

1617181920212223242526

BreakevenInflation10YUS,GermanyandUK

Energy,BasicResources,andFinancialsaremostexposedtohigherinflation

5ycorrelationofw/wrelativereturns;STOXX600sectors

Market.impliedinflation

US

Germany

0.500.400.300.200.100.00-0.10

-0.20-0.30

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

11

Commoditiessensitivity

BrentpriceshavereboundedandremainelevatedamidMiddleEasttensions

130

110

90

70

50

30

10

750

650

550

450

350

250

150

Brent

Copper(RHS)

1617181920212223242526

Priceperformance(inUSD)

Commodity.relatedsectorsbenefitthemostfromhigherBrentandCopperprices

5ycorrelationofw/wrelativereturns;STOXX600sectors

0.750.600.450.300.150.00-0.15

-0.30-0.45

Brent

Copper

Commodities

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

12

Creditsensitivity

Creditspreadshavewidened,particularlyinEuroHighYield

EURIGandHYspreads

Cons.Staples,Telecom,andHealthcareoutperformwhenspreadswiden

5ycorrelationofw/wrelativereturns;STOXX600sectors

10

0.600.400.200.00

-0.20-0.40

EURIGspread9

EURHYspread8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

1617181920212223242526

CreditEURIGspread

EURHYspread

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

13

Currencysensitivity

SmallcapsandcyclicalsaremostsensitivetoFXmoves

5ycorrelationofw/wrelativereturns;STOXX600sectors

EURhasweakenedinrecentmonths

EUR/USDandGBP/USD

1.5EUR/USD

GBP/USD1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

1617181920212223242526

Currencies

EUR/USDGBP/USD

0.400.300.200.100.00-0.10

-0.20-0.30

Tradegrowthsensitivity

BetaofequityreturnstoworldtradegrowthacrossEuropeansectorsDefensives,GrowthandEnergyusuallyoutperformwhenuncertainty

Datasince2000rises

25ycorrelationofm/mrelativereturnswithm/mchangeinEuropeanEPU

BetaofEquityreturnstoWorldtradegrowth

5.0

4.5

4.03.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.00.50.0

(advancedoneyear)

4.3

2.0

0.2

0.9

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.1

2.2

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.1

HealthCare

Insurance

Utilities

Drug/GrocStores

Energy

Telecom

Media

Retailers

Europe

Autos&Parts

Travel&Leis.

ConsumerPrd,Svs

Technology

RealEstate

Const.&Mats

Banks

BasicRes.

Healthcare

Cons.Staples Growth Utilities Energy TelecomTechnology

CapexBeneficiariesChemicals

BasicResources

ConsumerPrd,SvsRealEstateFin.ServicesMedia

Aerospace&Defence

Autos&PartsRetailers ValueInsuranceSmall

Ind.Goods&SvsConst.&Mats

Travel&LeisureBanks

-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.3

Economicpolicyuncertainty

Source:Bloomberg,Datastream,Worldscope,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

14

Geographicalexposure

STOXXEurope600GeographicRevenueExposurebySector

Source:FactSet,STOXX,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

15

16

WhatFactors&Styleshavebeendrivingperformance?

StylePerformance

Cyclicalsvs.Defensives

GSSTCYCLvs.GSSTDEFS(Europe);GSSBCYCLvs.GSSBDEFS(US)

Growthvs.Value

MSCIindices

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

USEurope

Cyclicals

outperform

Defensivesoutperform

90

Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26Oct-26

GrowthoutperformsValue

EuroAreaUK

Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26Oct-26

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

Oct-25

US

Dec-25

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

18

StylePerformance

Small-capvs.Large-cap

EuroArea:MSCIEMUSmallvs.MSCIEMULarge;UK:FTSE250vs.FTSE100;US:Russell2000vs.S&P500

EuroAreaUK

Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26Oct-26

115

110

105

100

95

90

SmalloutperformsLarge

US

Dec-25

85

Oct-25

Domesticvs.International

GSSTDOMEvs.GSSTEURO(EA);GSTHAINTvs.GSTHINTL(US);GSSTUKDEvs.GSSTUKIE(UK)

USEuroAreaUK

Domestic

outperforms

International

outperforms

60

Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26Oct-26

110

100

90

80

70

19

Valuation

20

Equityvaluationsareelevatedbutnotextreme

12mfwdP/Emultiple.MSCIRegions,STOXX600forEuropeandS&P500forUS.Dataforthelast20years

19.3

18.6

16.515.8

13.8

12.7

12.0

10.6

10.0

22InterquartileRangeMedianCurrent10th-90thpercentile

ACWorldJapanEuropeACWorldex.US

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

USUSex.

BigTech

APxJChinaEM

UnitedKingdom

9.9

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

EuropetradingatadeepdiscounttotheUS;butvaluationsfellfurtherintheRussia/UkraineGasspikein2022

Thede.ratinginEuropewasespeciallysharpin2022

12mfwdP/EforSTOXX600andLong-termaverage

EuropetradingatadeepdiscounttotheUS

EuroperelativetoUS12mforwardP/E

Source:Datastream,STOXX,Worldscope,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

21

Source:Datastream,STOXX,Worldscope,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

22

UKdiscount

FTSE350valuationisbelowlonger-termmedianUKdiscounttotheUSremainslarge,buthasnarrowedsince2025

12mfwdP/EforFTSE350UKrelativetoUS12mforwardP/E

12mfwdP/EMedian

11.8

96980002040608101214161820222426

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

*Note:USTelecomsgrowth:34%;14%ex-SpaceX.

Source:FactSet,Datastream,Worldscope,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

23

Europeisonasteepdiscount;andit’snotalwaysdeserved

ThemajorityofsectorsinEuropeareonawider-than-usualdiscounttotheirUScounterparts

Europevs.US12mfwdP/EPremium/(Discount).Dataforlast20years

0%

-5%

-10%-7-8

5%

-17%-17%-17%-14%-11%

-24%-22%

-31%

-41%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%

-70%

-56%-63%

Current

Median

Theaggregate‘gap’betweenUSandEuropegrowthisduetosectorsontheright

FY3NetIncomeGrowth,MSCIIndices(inUSD)

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

23

22

20

15

15

12

11

16

9101010108

10

7

MSCIEurope

MSCIUSA

11

4

5

3

8

Afewsectorsareatorbelowaveragemultiples

12mfwdP/E,EuropeWorldscopeSectorssince2000

InterquartileRange

19.017.4

14.814.6

14.5

13.713.713.1

11.4

10.1

9.9

7.4

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

MedianCurrent10th-90thpercentile

21.3

19.1

13.813.9

22.6

Technology

Luxury

Chemicals

Industrials

Retailers

HealthCare

Utilities

Construction

Telecom

Europe

Consumer

Staples

Business

Services

Resources

Insurance

Banks

Energy

Autos&Parts

Basic

Source:Datastream,Worldscope,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

24

25

Europeanprice-to-earningsandexpectedsalesgrowthratiorevealvalue

12mfwdP/Eand2028/2025SalesCAGR(%).STOXXEuropesectorindices,aggregatedbottom-up.

12mfwdP/E

%

Cons.Prod&Svs

Industrials

Chemicals

Telecom

UtilitiesHealthcare

Cons.Staples

MediaBasicResources

Travel&Leisure

Financials

Energy

Autos&PartsSalesCAGR2025-2028

0%3%6%9%12%15

Retail

Software&TechConstruction&MatSvs

Hardware&TechEqp

SalesCAGR:23%PE:31x

Technology

30

25

20

15

10

5

STOXX600*

*STOXX600exFinancials.

Source:Datastream,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

26

Earnings

Marketearningsrevision&sentiment

STOXXEurope600EPSrevisions

EarningsinEURindexedtoJan

Earningssentimentfor2026

(Nbupgrades-Nbdowngrades)/Nbestimatesoverthepastmonth

2018

2022

2026

-40%

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

EarningsRevision

20192020

20232024

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2017

2021

2025

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

Oct-25

2026EarningsSentiment

S&P500

STOXX600

MSCIEM

Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26

Oct-26

Source:FactSet,STOXX,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

27

Europeanearningsdrivers

Salesmomentumisstrengthening,whilehigherinputcostsweighonmarginsentiment

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%

-50%

STOXX600SalesSTOXX600Margins

Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26Oct-26

CY26SalesandMarginSentiment

PMIssupportEPSimprovementinEurope

STOXX600CY1EPS(3mRevision)andEuroAreaPMI(RHS)

STOXX600CY1EPS(3mRevision)EuroAreaCompositePMI(RHS)

000306091215182124

15%

12%

9%

6%

3%

0%

-3%

-6%

-9%

-12%

62

60

58

56

54

52

50

48

46

44

Note:Margin/SalesSentiment=(Numberofanalystupgrades-downgrades)/Totalnumberofestimates||Period:1month)

Source:FactSet,HaverAnalytics,STOXX,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

28

Sectorearnings

3-monthEPSrevision

STOXX600sectorsandGlobalRegions.Localcurrency

EPSrevisionsincethestartof2026

STOXX600sectorsandGlobalRegions.Localcurrency

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

20262027

Energy

MXAPJ

MSCIEM

S&P500

MSCIACWorld

Technology

Telcos

Topix

FTSE100

STOXX600

Financials

Industrials

Retail

Utilities

HealthCare

BasicMaterials

Food,Bev&Tob

ConsProd&Svc

RealEstate

Media

PersCare,D&G

Autos&Parts

Travel&Leisure

Energy

MXAPJ

MSCIEM

Technology

S&P500

MSCIACWorld

BasicMaterials

FTSE100

Topix

STOXX600

Financials

Utilities

Media

Telcos

Industrials

Food,Bev&Tob

Retail

HealthCare

RealEstate

PersCare,D&G

ConsProd&Svc

Travel&Leisure

Autos&Parts

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

Energy2026+83%

2026

2027

Source:Datastream,I/B/E/S,STOXX,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29

Sectormargins,sales&EPSgrowthbysector

Salesgrowth,EPSgrowthandnetmargins

Consensusestimates

STOXX600

SalesGrowth(%)

EPSGrowth(%)

NetMargin(%)

2026E

7.4

2027E

2.8

2026E

20.7

2027E

9.7

2026E

11.0

2027E

11.6

Energy

20.6

-7.6

107.0

-8.9

8.6

8.0

BasicResources

18.0

0.0

61.9

6.8

6.6

7.4

Technology

14.8

14.1

31.1

31.3

19.3

20.4

Telecommunications

3.2

3.8

27.1

12.0

7.7

8.3

AutomobilesandParts

0.9

2.1

21.7

25.5

3.5

4.5

FinancialServices

NM

NM

21.0

-4.2

34.5

34.3

Chemicals

4.9

2.3

19.8

3.6

6.8

7.2

IndustrialGoodsandServices

8.2

7.2

18.6

18.8

8.2

8.9

Banks

NM

NM

13.9

16.4

29.6

31.2

ConsumerProductsandServices

4.2

5.9

10.6

14.1

9.3

10.0

ConstructionandMaterials

4.3

5.8

8.5

9.5

5.8

6.2

Utilities

2.6

3.7

8.2

9.1

9.1

9.5

Insurance

NM

NM

7.4

6.1

8.1

8.2

Retail

5.7

5.2

7.3

9.5

4.6

4.9

HealthCare

4.3

5.9

5.7

8.1

19.2

19.9

FoodBeverageandTobacco

1.8

4.1

4.6

7.6

12.8

13.3

PersonalCareDrugandGroceryStores

2.3

3.1

2.4

7.5

4.1

4.2

RealEstate

NM

NM

1.1

3.3

61.5

64.2

TravelandLeisure

2.8

4.9

-5.5

14.8

6.7

7.5

Media

2.1

4.5

-5.9

18.6

10.2

10.7

Source:FactSet,STOXX,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30

31

Corporateusesofcash

Corporatedebtcoststorise,butmanageable

Thecostofdebthasrisen

iBoxxEuroCorporate

Currentbalancesheetsarenotespeciallystretched

NetdebttoEBITDA,exfinancials

0002040608101214161820222426

4.0x

3.5x

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

EuropeJapanUS

USex-Tech

NetDebttoEBITDA

Yield-ToRedemption

AverageCoupon

0002040608101214161820222426

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Source:Datastream,FactSet,STOXX,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

32

33

Europeanusesofcash

TheamountofcashdeployedbyEuropeanequitieseachyearsince2000

Totaluseofcash(€,bn)andsharebyactivity(%)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

CAPEXR&DAcquisitions(M&A)TotalDividends(Gross)Buybacks

1,391

1,407

1,410

1,429

1,478

9%

1,214

1,198

1,241

13%

11%

10%

9%

930

3%

11%

22%

758

5%

15%

625

630

733

8%

908

9%

17%

1,071

10%

16%

24%

1,079

8%

18%

19%

818

2%

21%

831

4%

21%

1,015

7%

21%

13%

1,004

4%

21%

11%

955

5%

22%

8%

1,049

6%

22%

14%

1,114

6%

22%

13%

1,074

5%

21%

17%

1,075

5%

22%

15%

8%

22%

18%

8%

977

10%

22%

24%

23%

23%

23%

25%

6%

22%

22%

12%

10%

10%

10%

11%

12%

12%

16%

13%

14%

15%

15%

15%

10%

16%

12%

4%

16%

14%

13%

555

3%

16%

10%

14%

7%

18%

12%

13%

16%

16%

12%

19%

10%

9%

9%

13%

12%

10%

13%

11%

12%

12%

12%

12%

13%

13%

12%

13%

16%

13%

54%

53%

54%

56%

51%

48%

46%

41%

46%

53%

53%

48%

52%

53%

47%

47%

44%

44%

40%

42%

45%

39%

40%

42%

42%

43%

43%

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

Note:STOXX600exFinancials–2025and2026areGSestimates

Source:Datastream,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

34

UtilitiesandTelecomshavethehighestdebtratios

Europeishealthyfromabalancesheetperspective

STOXX600e

NetDebt/Equity

0

ConsumerProd&Svs

NetDebt/EBITDA

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.

PersonalCare&GroceryStores

Travel&Leisure

Small

Mid

Construction&Mat

LargeChemicals

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

xFinancials&RealEstate

MediaIndustrials

Food,Bev&Tobacco

STOXX600Healthcare

0%

-20%

EnergyRetail

BasicResources

Telecoms

-0.5

Utilities

Tech

Source:Datastream,FactSet,STOXX,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

35

ShareholderreturnshighinEurope,moderatingintheUS

InEurope,thetotalshareholderyieldremainshigh...

Europe,12mtrailing

...whileitisrelativelylowintheUS

US,12mtrailing

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

10

(%)

US

(%)Europe

8

6

4

2

0

DividendYield

GrossBuybackYield

IssuanceAdjustment

-2

-4

-6

DividendYield

GrossBuybackYieldIssuanceAdjustment

TotalNetShareholderReturn

TotalNetShareholderReturn

0002040608101214161820222426

0002040608101214161820222426

Source:Datastream,Worldscope,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

36

Returntoshareholders

CompaniesintheSTOXX600returnover4.5%oftheirmarketcapperyear

LTMTotalShareholderYield(%)–Europeansectors

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

7.37.36.9

6.66.5

6.15.85.85.65.55.45.4

GSSTDIVY

GSSTREPO

Banks

Energy

Financials

Media

Travel&Leisure

Autos&Parts

Telecom

FTSE100

RealEstate

Utilities

Cons.Staples

STOXX600

STOXXexCommo

Retail

STOXXexFin

Healthcare

Chemicals

BasicResources

Industrials

Cons.Prod&Svs

S&P500

Technology

DividendsGrossBuybacks

5.1

4.64.5

4.14.0

3.53.53.5

3.12.92.82.6

Source:Datastream,Factset,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Valueoutperformswithhigherbondyields

Valueoutperforms...

RelativepriceperformanceandUS10yBY

...alongsidehigherbondyields

RelativepriceperformanceandUS10yBY

133

130

6

7

6

5

135BuybackYieldbasket(GSSTREPO)US10yBondYield

vs.STOXX600(equalweighted)(RHS)

130

5

127

124

125

4

121

118

115

120

4

3

115

3

2

1

0

112

DividendYieldbasket(GSSTDIVY)vs.STOXX600(equalweighted)

US10yBondYield(RHS)

109

106

103

100

97

110

2

105

1

100

0

95

Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,Datastream,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

37

38

Flows&Positioning

Despiteamodestpick-up,stillweakpositioningintoEuropebyglobalinvestors

CumulativeflowsintoEuropeanequitieshaveimproved……butremainmuchweakerthanforallotherregions

Europebondandequitycumulativeflows(USDbn)Monthlyflows,USDbn.EPFRCountryFlows(weeklydataforcurrentmonth)

550USD

bn.EuropeBondFlowsEuropeEquityFlows

450

350

250

150

50

-50

Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:EPFR,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

39

PositioninginEurope

AlmosthalfofequityholdingsbyEuropeanfundsareintheUS

EuroAreaInvestmentFunds'holdingsinUSandEuroAreaequities