摩根士丹利-DataDig：煤炭仍保持热度-Data Dig：Coal Stays Hot-20260928

RESEARCH

MorganStanley

September28,202609:00PMGMT

AustraliaMaterials|AsiaPacific

DataDig:CoalStaysHot

Charts,analysis,andcomparablesfortheglobalminingsector.

Coalmarketsremaintightinto4Q(spotmet~US$274/t+27%YTD,thermal~US

$144/t+35%YTD).Thermalissupportedbyfirmerwinterfundamentalswhile

Indonesianexportsremainconstrained,withthetightgasbackdropaddingfurthersupport(seehere).OurGlobalGas&LNGteamrecentlyraisedits4Q26JKM

forecasttoUS$27.50/mmbtu(here),seeingaslowerrestartinQatar,while

Europeangasinventoriesareonly~70%fullvs.82%lastyear(87%10-year

average),thelowestseasonallevelin>15years.TTFandJKM(ExhibitLHS)alreadysitwellabovecoalparity,increasingcoalgeneration'srelativeattractiveness.For

metcoal,safety-relatedminesuspensionsinShanxi,lowinventoriesandrecent

reportsofconstrainedMongolianborderflowskeepnear-termfundamentalsfirm,particularlyforhigh-qualitycokingcoal.However,weaksteelmargins,potentialforminerestartsinChina,andtheprospectofhigherMongolian/Australiansupply

couldtemperfurtherupsideinthemediumterm(here).ForWHC(OW),pricing

remainssupportiveacrossthermalandmet,implying~14.1%spotFY27eFCFyieldvs10.6%onourbasecase.WeseeFY27ROMguidanceof38-41Mtasconservative

(weestimate40.4Mt),afterFY26(40.3Mt)alsolandedatthetopenddespiteweatherdisruptions.Dieselremainsariskforcosts,butweexpectthatfurtherdieselpriceincreaseswouldlikelycomealongsidebroaderenergycomplex

tightness,whichshouldalsosupportthermalcoal,providingoffsets.

Exhibit1:LNGremainswellabovethermalcoalparity,withfirmthermalandmetcoalpricessupportingWHC'sspotFCFyield

元b

r2

Aslacodlvsgaspicedynanies(Stofcoal)Eflidencydopordentrrge

0odequivalentJMUNGpice(w.effcieng)

52

Jan26

SourceBloomberg.MorganStanleyResearchestimates

ASXMinersRelativePreferenceTableASXCoverageValuationTables

ASXMiningEquities

ASXMiners-RevenueExposures

ASXMiningSectorvs.IndustrialsEx-BanksASXMiningvs.Industrials-Relative

AustralianMiningvs.GlobalMiningSectorGlobalMiningSectorvs.GlobalMarket

GlobalMiners-ValuationTablesCommoditiesvs.MarginalCost

China-MacroOutlook

ElectricVehicle-relatedChartsCommodities:Aluminium

Commodities:Coal

Commodities:Copper

Commodities:GoldandPrecious

Metals

P9Commodities:ronOreP10Commodities:LithiumP11Commodities:Nickel

P15Commodities:Zinc

P16

P22

P27

P30

P32

P35

P37

P40

P48

P50

MORGANSTANLEYAUSTRALIALIMITED+RahulAnand,CFA

EquityAnalyst

+6129770-1136

R.Anand@morganstanleycomMichaelAStancliffResearchAssociate

+6129770-9253

Michal.S

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCDevinMcDermott

+1212761-1125

EquityAnalystandCommoditiesStrategistDevin.McDermott@morganstanley.cm

MORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+

AmyGower(AmySergeant),CFACommoditiesStrategist

+44207677-6937

Amy.Gower1@morganstanleycom

CharlotteFirkinsCommoditiesStrategist

+44207425-3866

ChalotteFirkins@morganstanleycom

AUSTRALIAMATERIALS

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewAttractive

RecentResearch:

BHPGroupLtd:FatalityatEscondida(25Sep

2026)

South32Ltd:Hermosa:Notmuchhaschanged

(14Sep2026)

RioTintoLimited:TheAluminiumWithin(3Sep

2026)

metal&ROCK:CouldLithiumRally?(1Sep2026)

BossEnergyLtd:UpdatingEstimates(28Aug

2026)

MineralResourcesLimited:UpdatingEstimates(27Aug2026)

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

MorganStanley

RESEARCH

IDEA

ASXMiners-RelativePreferenceTable

Exhibit2:ASXMiners-Investmentthesis,upside/downsidetoshareprice,financialmetricsandconsensusratings

RankCodeRating

Consensus

(Buy,Hold,Sel

LastPricarget

UpsidelEV/EBITDAFCFYiedDiv.YieldGeaningDownside1yrfwdIyrfwd1yrfwd1yfwd

12MthmovelnvestmentThesis

BHP

2PDN

3BOE

4LU

5WHC

6532

7LYC

8PLS

9NIC

数IGO

11SFR

12RIO

13FMG

14DRR

ow

ow

ow

ow

oW

ow

23%73%5%

71%7%21%

43%29%29%

67%33%0%

57%36%7%

53%47%0%

59.80

9.36

1.56

5.94

7.35

4.88

13.77

3.84

0.80

6.42

21.85

163.04

16.26

4.03

68.00

12.05

1.65

8.10

8.45

5.10

15.45

5.00

0.80

720

20.00

150.00

15.45

3.80

14%

7.84.3%4.1%

15%

八

BHPhasanatractivecommoditymix(ironore,copper,metcoal,reilientFCFandpotentialforshareholderreturns,whilemaintainingastrongbalancesheetforfavourablegrowthand/orincreasingcashshareholderretums.

29%

21.3

-0.6%0.0%

-8.0%0.0%

26

-4%

PDNhasstronggrowthpotentialthroughPattersonLakeSouth,a9.1MbpaprojectinCanadawithfistproductionexpectedinCY3le,whichcouldmakePDNasireableuraniumplayer.

WeseepotentialforanimprovedproductionscenariofromarevisedHoneymoonFeasibilitystudy.Althoughuncertaintyremains,weseerisksandopportunitiesskewedtotheupside,andweremainconstructiveontheoutlookforUranium.

WeseeLU'srareearthdownsreamstrategywellositionedtobenefitfromestablishmentofanexChinarareearthssupplychain.Weaksoseeanynear-termweaknessinthemineralsandmarketaspricedin,withpotentalnear-termrecoveryforpremiumzirconontightsupply.

WHChasseenimprovingoperationalperformancearossassets,whichwethinkcouldcontinueintoFY27e.FDWinchesterSouthwouldboostwaluationfurther,whlegeneratingstrongoperatingcashflowfollowingcost-outinitiativesatQueenslandassets.

532haspotentialtocontinuegeneratingsignicantcashflow,enablingstrongshareholderreturnsalongwithpotentialtogrowbasemetaksproductionthroughitsHermosaprojectintheU5.

LYCstandstobenefitfromrareearthssupplychindiversfication,andisalsoexpandingitsseparatedHREproductofferingsthroughanewseparationfacilityinMalaysiawhichweexpectwilldrneearningsgrowth,howeverweseethestockasfairlywaluedcurrenty.

PLShasexpansionoplionalityatPigangoora,andweseethecompanywelplacedtocapitalseonstrongreboundinspodumeneprices.P2000FIDcouldboostvaluation,withstudyresultsexpectedCY2Z6-end.

AlthoughNICremainsalowercostproducer,wecurrentyforecastrsingnickelmarketsurplusesfrom2026e.MSforecastsfornickelare4%11%belowconsensusfortheCY27e-29eforecastperioddriveourbasecasevaluation.Asapositive,wedoseeopportunityforanESGre-rateascarbonemissionintensitiesdeclinewhenENCcomesonline(MSeMarQ27firstfulquarteratnameplate).

WeseeGreenbushescontinuingtogeneratesignificantcashflowsatcurrentithiumprices,ghvenitslowcostposition.WestilseesomeriskofacquisitionswiththeNovaOperationendoflifeinCY26,andminoritystakeinGreenbushes

Ramp-upoftheA4OpenPitmineshouldexpandSFR'sproductioninthenearterm,benefitingfromthestrongcopperpriceenvironment.Weseethestockpricebeingdrvenmainlybynear-termmultiples,ignoringshortminelives(sixtosevenyears)however,thereareopportunitiestoextendatbothMotheoandMATSA.

RIOofferssomenear-termwolumegrowthfromSimandou,OyuTolgoiandlithium,howevermedium-termgrowthvsibilityappearsmoreimited,withlowercopperexposurethanpeers.Giventhewaluation,cashreturmoutlookandearningsrisksfromaluminiummargin

normalisation,weseemoredownsiderskthanupside

FMGcontinuestohavestrongcashgenerationthroughisHematiteoperationssupportingattractivwedividendsvield,howeverwethinkthisismorethanfaryvwaluedcurently.Weseeriskssurroundingdecarbonisationspending,withsignificantcapexremainingfromFY26-30.

DeterasearningsprimariycomefromMAC,butweexpectironoretoweakenassofterChinasteeloutput,lowerexportsandacceeraingSimandoushipmensdrivealarger2H26surplus.

6%

5.8

36%

20.411.0%1.0%40%

15%

4.710.9%

1.5%16%

5%

72

-0.1%3.1%

-45%

-25%

-46%

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

69%15%15%

53%29%18%

78%22%0%

12%

15.73.060.0%

30%

6.3

-0.8%0.1%

1%

4.921.6%8.5%

20%

29%71%0%

21%64%14%6

12%

26.91.2%

3.9%

-51%

27%

-8%

-8%

6.15.3%3.9%

8.44.2%64.4%

UW

UW

UW

4%44%13%

13%56%31%

36%55%9%

13%

7%

38%

-5%

-6%

6.3

12.3

2.2%3.6%

6.3%4.3%

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,ThorsonReuters.OrderofPrefereneconsidersrelativeupside/dowrsdetoTP,relainemarketcapitaization,reatiersk-rewardbalanceandfimingofpotentalperformancedriners.Greenshadingoncompanymetricsidentifiesequitie

withwaluesmorefavourablethantheweichtedaverase.ConsensusRatingcellhizHizhtedinoraneisacontrariancallfortheresnectiveeauitv.IGOEVEBITDAmultioleindudesIGO'shareoflithiumEBITDA.

SourceRefinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:SharepnioesasofSeptember28,2026.

Idea

ASXCoverageValuationTables

BaseCase

Exhibit3:Basecasevaluationmultiplesandkeymetrics:ASXminersunderMorganStanleycoverage

Rating

Yearending

FX

BaseCase

Valuation(A$)

MarketCap

(mn)

EV

(mn)

P/E

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

EV/EBITDA*

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

FCFYield

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

DividendYield

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

Gearing

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

Diversified

BHP

OW

June

USD

57.45

213,817

247,939e

16.817.0

8.38.6

4.2%4.8%

3.6%3.5%

15%14%

RioTintoLtd.

UW

December

USD

146.50

186,273

230,302e

13.615.3

8.68.5

4.6%4.8%

4.4%3.9%

16%14%

Bulks

FortescueMetalsGroup

UW

June

USD

16.00

35,226

36,832e

18.615.0

6.76.0

2.2%3.5%

3.5%4.4%

7%8%

DeterraRoyalties

UW

June

AUD

3.72

2,137

2,236e

18.114.7

12.710.3

6.1%6.1%

4.1%5.1%

38%23%

WhitehavenCoal

OW

June

AUD

8.70

6,118

7,297e

14.211.1

5.34.6

5.1%7.0%

1.5%2.3%

16%10%

BaseMetals

South32

OW

June

USD

4.45

15,491

12,231e

14.521.2

5.49.8

2.3%-4.0%

5.1%1.7%

-45%-25%

SandfireResources

EW

June

USD

12.90

7,164

6,611e

15.317.8

6.46.7

5.2%8.5%

3.8%8.4%

-27%-34%

IGOLtd

EW

June

AUD

6.25

4,893

4,085e

10.811.0

5.35.8

25.5%18.4%

3.7%3.3%

-51%-63%

Other

IlukaResources

OW

December

AUD

7.45

2,571

3,915e

NMNM

24.320.2

-10.4%-10.9%

1.0%0.8%

40%46%

PilbaraMinerals

EW

June

AUD

4.65

12,524

10,990e

12.521.5

6.39.8

-0.8%-0.5%

0.1%0.0%

-59%-41%

LynasRareEarths

EW

June

AUD

13.35

13,877

13,071e

28.020.2

15.911.4

2.9%4.7%

0.0%0.0%

-25%-46%

NickelIndustries

EW

December

USD

0.55

2,424

3,675e

34.818.7

7.64.7

6.6%14.7%

0.0%5.8%

26%20%

BossEnergy

OW

June

USD

1.10

456

439e

19.111.1

8.75.1

-5.4%6.2%

0.0%0.0%

-3%-11%

PaladinEnergy

OW

June

USD

7.95

2,966

2,869e

59.430.4

32.523.6

-0.4%-3.1%

0.0%0.0%

2%11%

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:*IGOEBITDAincludesIGO'sshareoflithiumEBITDAforEV/EBITDAcalculationandIGOFCFYieldincludesdividendsreceivedfromassociates.PricesasofSeptember28,2026.

MorganStanleyResearch3

4

Idea

SpotCase

Exhibit4:Spotcasevaluationmultiplesandkeymetrics:ASXminersunderMorganStanleycoverage

Rating

YearEnding

ClosePrice

(A$)

PriceTarget

(A$)

FX

ValuationatSpot(A$)

MarketCap

(mn)

EV

(mn)

P/E

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

EV/EBITDA

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

FCFYield

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

DividendYield

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

Gearing

FY27/CY26FY28/CY27

Diversified

BHP

OW

June

59.80AUD

68.00

USD

62.80

213,817

247,939

20.0

19.0

7.3

7.2

5.2%

6.4%

4.2%

4.4%

13%

11%

RioTintoLtd.

UW

December

163.04AUD

150.00AUD

USD

160.50

186,273

230,302

12.5

12.0

8.0

7.1

5.2%

6.6%

4.8%

5.0%

14%

10%

Bulks

FortescueMetalsGroup

UW

June

16.26AUD

15.45AUD

USD

16.55

35,226

36,832

14.4

12.1

5.9

5.3

3.5%

4.9%

4.4%

5.3%

6%

6%

DeterraRoyalties

UW

June

4.03

3.80

AUD

3.89

2,137

2,236

16.2

13.3

11.8

9.7

6.4%

6.5%

4.5%

5.5%

37%

21%

WhitehavenCoal

OW

June

7.35

8.45

AUD

11.95

6,118

7,297

5.9

3.5

4.1

2.8

8.9%

16.7%

3.0%

6.4%

13%

3%

BaseMetals

South32

OW

June

4.88AUD

5.10AUD

USD

4.80

15,491

12,231

10.5

19.2

4.4

9.1

5.3%

-3.6%

6.2%

2.0%

-43%

-23%

SandfireResources

EW

June

21.85AUD

20.00AUD

USD

16.35

7,164

6,611

17.2

16.3

5.5

5.1

6.2%

10.9%

4.8%

10.9%

-30%

-38%

IGOLtd

EW

June

6.42

7.20

AUD

7.40

4,893

4,085

10.5

7.3

5.4

4.0

25.1%

26.4%

3.7%

7.1%

-51%

-71%

Other

IlukaResources

OW

December

5.94

8.10

AUD

6.55

2,571

3,915

NM

NM

45.8

NM

-12.6%

-17.0%

1.0%

0.8%

41%

51%

PilbaraMinerals

EW

June

3.84

5.00

AUD

5.60

12,524

10,990

11.3

11.3

5.8

5.7

0.2%

3.8%

0.1%

0.8%

-64%

-60%

LynasRareEarths

EW

June

13.77

15.45

AUD

13.20

13,877

13,071

27.4

19.6

16.2

11.6

2.8%

4.6%

0.0%

0.0%

-25%

-45%

NickelIndustries

EW

December

0.80AUD

0.80AUD

USD

0.50

2,424

3,675

35.9

28.7

7.7

5.6

6.5%

12.4%

0.0%

5.8%

27%

22%

BossEnergy

OW

June

1.56AUD

1.65AUD

USD

1.55

456

439

24.2

11.0

9.9

5.6

-6.4%

5.6%

0.0%

0.0%

-1%

-9%

PaladinEnergy

OW

June

9.36AUD

12.05AUD

USD

9.50

2,966

2,869

NM

29.2

38.7

24.1

-0.8%

-3.2%

0.0%

0.0%

3%

13%

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:*IGOEBITDAincludesIGO'sshareoflithiumEBITDAforEV/EBITDAcalculationandIGOFCFYieldincludesdividendsreceivedfromassociates.PricesasofSeptember28,2026.

MorganStanleyResearch5

Idea

ASXMiningEquities

Exhibit5:EBITDAmarginsofASXminersinourcoverage

CY2026EBITDAMargin

CY2026

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

NIC

Diversified

BaseMetals

Bulks

0%

Other

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit7:FCFmarginofASXminersinourcoverage

FCFMargin

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

NIC

Bulks

BaseMetals

Diversified

CY2026

CY2027

Other

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:FCFdefinedasOCF-capitalexpenditures.

Exhibit9:DividendyieldofASXminersinourcoverage

CY2026CY2027

DivYield(%)

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

ILU

NIC

Diversified

BaseMetals

Other

0%

Bulks

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:PricesasofSeptember28,2026.

Exhibit6:P/EratiosofASXminersinourcoverage

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

CY2026

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

NIC

CY2027

Bulks

BaseMetals

Diversified

PERatio

Other

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:PricesasofSeptember28,2026.

Exhibit8:Netdebt/EBITDAofASXminersinourcoverage

Diversified

Bulks

BaseMetals

NetDebttoEBITDA

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

-

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.5)

(2.0)

(2.5)

(3.0)

(3.5)

(4.0)

(4.5)

(5.0)

BHP

RIO

FMG

DRR

WHC

S32

SFR

IGO

ILU

MIN

PLS

LYC

BOE

PDN

NIC

CY2026

CY2027

Other

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

Exhibit10:2026eP/Bvs.ROEofASXminersinourcoverage

4.0

CY26P/BvsROE

Expensive

3.5

3.0

RIO

PDN

2.5

MIN

IGO

P/B

2.0

FMG

S32

1.5

ILU

LYC

NIC

BOE

WHC

0.5

1.0

Cheap

0.0

-2.0%3.0%8.0%13.0%18.0%

ROE

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:Period-endbookvalues.PricesasofSeptember28,2026.

6

Idea

ASXMiners–RevenueExposures

Exhibit11:CommodityRevenueExposureofAustralianCoverage

SFR70%

BHP49%

SpodLeadZincNickelAluminaAluminiumCopper

RIO25%

S3213%

IGO3%

S3237%

RIO27%

S3222%

IGO6%

S320%

NIC16%

SFR14%

S322%

S322%

SFR1%

Lithium/

PLS100%IGO91%

MIN20%

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:IGOexposureconsidersIGOshareofLithiumAssets(accountedusingequitymethod).

Exhibit12:CommodityRevenueExposureofAustralianCoverage

LYCILUSilverMangThermalCoalMetCoalIronOre

DRR

FMG

RIO

BHP

MIN

BHP

WHC

WHC

S32

SFR

S32

Zircon

SyntheticRutile

Rutile

llmenite

Ndpr

39%

40%

79%

11%

58%

42%

14%

15%

8%

63%

19%

11%

19%

100%

100%

100%

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyResearch7

Idea

ASXMiningSectorvs.IndustrialsEx-Banks

Exhibit13:Next12monthsEV/EBITDA:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMEV/EBITDA

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25

Sep-26

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusEVandEBITDAtotalsusedindexconstruction.

Exhibit15:Next12monthsP/B:Miningandindustrialsindices

NTMP/B

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit17:Next12monthsdividendyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMDividendYield

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25

Sep-26

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapanddividendtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit14:Next12monthsP/E:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMP/E

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25

Sep-26

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandnetincometotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit16:Next12monthsFCFyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMFCFYield

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit18:Next12monthsROE:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

NTMROE

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

MiningIndustrials

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusnetincomeandequityvaluetotalsusedforindexconstruction.

8

Idea

ASXMiningSectorvs.IndustrialsEx-Banks–Relative

Exhibit19:Next12monthsrelativeEV/EBITDA:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

1.6

RelativeEV/EBITDA-MiningvsIndustrials

1.4

RelativeEV/EBITDA

1.2

1.0

0.8

+1SD,0.84

Avg,0.65

0.6

0.4

-1SD,0.45

0.2

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25

Sep-26

0.0

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusEVandEBITDAtotalsusedindexconstruction.

Exhibit21:Next12monthsrelativeP/B:Miningandindustrialsindices

1.2

RelativeP/B-MiningvsIndustrials

1.1

RelativeP/B

1.0

0.9

0.8

+1SD,0.86

Avg,0.73

0.7

0.6

-1SD,0.60

0.5

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

0.4

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit23:Next12monthsrelativedividendyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

RelativeDividendYield

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25

Sep-26

RelativeDiv.Yield-MiningvsIndustrials

+1SD,1.91

Avg,1.24

-1SD,0.57

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapanddividendtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit20:Next12monthsrelativeP/E:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

1.8

RelativeP/E-MiningvsIndustrials

1.6

RelativeP/E

1.4

1.2

1.0

+1SD,0.79

0.8

Avg,0.58

0.6

0.4

0.2

-1SD,0.37

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25

Sep-26

0.0

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandnetincometotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit22:Next12monthsrelativeFCFyield:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

RelativeFCFYield-MiningvsIndustrials

4.5

4.0

RelativeFCFYield

3.5

3.0

+1SD,2.57

Avg,

2.51.982.0

1.5

-1SD,1.40

1.0

0.5

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

0.0

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusmarketcapandFCFtotalsusedforindexconstruction.

Exhibit24:Next12monthsrelativeROE:Bottom-upminingandindustrialsindices

4.5

RelativeROE-MiningvsIndustrials

4.0

RelativeROE

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

+1SD,2.24

Avg,1.52

1.5

1.0

0.5

-1SD,0.80

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

0.0

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Marketcap-weightedconsensusnetincomeandequityvaluetotalsusedforindexconstruction.

MorganStanleyResearch9

Idea

AustralianMiningvs.GlobalMiningSector

Exhibit25:RelativeEV/EBITDA:Australiavs.GlobalMining

1.70

1.50

1.30

1.10

0.90

0.70

RelativeEV/EBITDA-AustraliavsGlobalMining

RelativeEV?EBITDA

+1SD,1.20

Avg,1.06

-1SD,0.92

Aug-96

Aug-97

Aug-98

Aug-99

Aug-00

Aug-01

Aug-02

Aug-03

Aug-04

Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

Aug-24

Aug-25

Aug-26

0.50

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

RelativeP/B

RelativeP/B-AustraliavsGlobalMining

+1SD,1.48

1.801.701.601.501.401.301.201.101.000.90

0.80

Exhibit27:RelativeP/B:Australiavs.GlobalMining

Avg,1.32

-1SD,1.16

Aug-96

Aug-97

Aug-98

Aug-99

Aug-00

Aug-01

Aug-02

Aug-03

Aug-04

Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

Aug-24

Aug-25

Aug-26

Source:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch.

Exhibit29:RelativeDividendYield:Australiavs.GlobalMining

1.601.501.401.301.201.101.000.900.800.70

0.60

RelativeDivyield-AustraliavsGlobalMining

RelativeDividendYield

+1SD,1.19

-1SD,0.82

Avg,1.01

Aug-96

Aug-97

Aug-98

Aug-99

Aug-00

Aug-01

Aug-02

Aug-03

Aug-04

Aug-05

Aug-0