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1、.,AgesandStagesQuestionnaireat3YearsforPredictingIQat56Years幼儿3岁时的发育情况(年龄和发育阶段问卷结果)能预测其5-6岁时的IQ,PEDIATRICSVolume139,number4,April2017IF:6.476Yaoxing,2017-11-07,.,Contens,BackgroundObjectivesMethodsResultsDiscussionStrengthsandlimitationsConclusionsImplications,.,Abbreviations,ASQ:Ageswhetherthechild

2、wasafirstbornchild;behavioralproblemsatage3,ratedviatheStrengthsandDifficultiesQuestionnaire(SDQ),andwhetherthechildhadstartedpreschoolatage3.2.Maternalcharacteristics:maternaleducationallevel,occupation,anddepressivesymptomsassessedwiththeCenterforEpidemiologicStudiesDepressionscale.3.Familycharact

3、eristics:parentsoccupationandfinancialdifficultiesreportedbytheparentswhenthechildwas3.,.,3.Statisticalanalysis,1.ChildrenincludedinthecurrentanalysiswerefirstcomparedwiththeotherchildrenintheEDENcohortwhowerenotincluded.2.Resultsforthe36-monthASQscoreandthe5-to6-yearWPPSI-IIIevaluationweredescribed

4、asmeansSDsandmedianwithinterquartileranges(IQRs).3.Thereceiveroperatingcharacteristic(ROC)curvelinkinglowIQ(85)andASQscorewasusedtodeterminetheoptimalcutoffvaluefortheASQscore.4.A3-stepanalysiswasthenconductedwithlogisticregression.5.StatisticalanalyseswereperformedinSASsoftwareversion9.3.,.,Results

5、,.,ASQscoresweredeterminedatameanageof37.30.8months.Themean36-monthASQscorewas27030,withamedianof280(IQR260290).IQwasmeasuredatameanageof67.21.8months.TheMeanIQwas10313,and69children(7.3%)hadanIQ85.Allchild,maternal,andfamilyfactorsstudied,exceptgenderandmaternaldepressivesymptoms,weresignificantlya

6、ssociatedwithASQscore.,.,1.CharacteristicsoftheStudypopulation(andcomparedwithchildrenintheEDENCohortbutnotincludedinthestudy),.,ChildrennotincludedweremoreoftenfromNancyCenter,werelessoftenfirstborn,hadmotherswithlowereducationallevels,andhadparentswithloweroccupationallevelsthanchildrenincluded.,.

7、,.,2.,IQatage5to6yearsaccordingto36-monthASQscore(ROCcurve),.,Theareaunderthecurvewas0.78(95%confidenceintervalCI,0.720.84).即IQ85的幼儿ASQ值小于正常组的概率为0.78。,TheoptimalcutoffvalueforpredictinglowIQwas270(sensitivitywas0.77,specificitywas0.68).Positivepredictivevaluewas0.16,thenegativepredictivevaluewas0.97

8、(提示3岁时ASQ得分270的幼儿5-6岁时IQ85的可能性小),ROC曲线下面积与工具诊断准确度高低高0.90-1.00=excellent(A)中0.80-0.90=good(B)0.70-0.80=fair(C)低0.60-0.70=poor(D)0.50-0.60=fail(F),.,3.FactorsassociatedwithIQ85onceASQistakenintoaccount,.,单变量,多变量,.,.,TherisksoflowIQwassignificantlyhigherinchildrenwithanASQscore270andamaternaleducationa

9、llevelathighschoolorbelow.,.,Discussion,.,1.TheprevalenceoflowIQwasprobablyunderestimatedinthestudy.,Aprevalenceof16%couldhavebeenexpected,consideringthedistributionofIQ(mean=100,SD=15).Theprevalenceinthisstudywas7.3%,whichwasalsointhelowerrangeoftheprevalenceobservedinthegeneralpediatricpopulatione

10、xhibitingsometypeofdevelopmentaldelayordisabilitybeforeenteringschool(5%15%).,.,2.ThetotalASQscoreusedinthestudy.,Asreportedinseveralpreviousstudies,totalASQscoresprovideaglobalevaluationofachildsfunctioning,whichseemsrelevantforpredictinglaterglobalcognitivefunctioning.Usingthetotalscoreinsteadofth

11、ecutoffpointsbydomain(能区)couldmisslesssevereproblemsrestrictedto1domain.OtherresearchersfoundthatinthegeneralpopulationtheuseofASQtotalscorecouldberecommendedbecauseofthelowprevalenceofdifficulties.,.,UsingtheASQatage3couldleadtodecisionstoperformmoredetaileddevelopmentalassessmentsforchildrenwithlo

12、werscores.Thegoalwouldbetosetupearlyinterventionsdesignedtohelpthechildachievehisorherfulldevelopmentalpotential.,.,3.FactorsassociatedwithIQatage5to6yearsonceASQscorewastakenintoaccount.,Theobjectiveofthisstudywastoidentifythefactorsstillhavinganimpactbetweenage3and5to6years,onceabilitiesatage3were

13、takenintoaccount.Interventionsconductedbetweenage3and5to6years,suchasspeechtherapy,werenotstudied.LowermaternaleducationallevelwasassociatedwithlowerASQscore.Thisassociationunderlinesthefactthatsocioeconomicbackgroundplaysacrucialroleinchilddevelopmentthroughoutearlychildhood.,.,Childrenwhosemothers

14、hadnooccupationalactivityhadagreaterriskoflowIQonceASQscorewastakenintoaccountandafteradjustmentfortheirmotherseducationallevel.Itispossiblethatmaternaloccupationalactivityservesasaproxy(代表)forvariousaspectsofsocioculturalandeconomicbackground.,.,Strengths,1.Largesamplesize(madeitpossibletostudynume

15、rousfactors).2.TheASQscorewasstudiedinrelationtothegoldstandardevaluationofcognitiveabilityatage5to6years(WPPSI-III).3.ThepsychologistsperformingtheWPPSI-IIIwereblindedtotheASQscore.,.,Limitations,1.TheIQat5to6yearsitselfalsohaslimitsandisnotaperfectpredictoroflonger-termoutcomes.2.Only69childrenhad

16、anIQ85,leadingtoalackofpowerforstudyingassociatedfactors.3.959childrenwerelosttofollow-upbetweenbirthandage5to6years.4.Childrennotincludedhadalowersocioeconomicbackgroundthanchildrenincluded.5.MothersinthecohorthadahighereducationallevelthanthoseintheoverallFrenchpopulation.,.,Conclusions,.,1.Result

17、ssuggestthatthe36-monthASQscorecouldbeusefulinpredictingtheriskofhavinganIQ85atage5to6years.2.TheASQscoressensitivityis0.770.11,with0.680.03specificityforacutoffvalueof270.3.AtagivenASQlevel,socioeconomicbackgroundaffectschildrensdevelopmentbetweenage3yearsandage5to6yearsandshouldbetakenintoaccountwheninterpretingtheASQscoreasapredictivetool.,.,Implications,学习1.选调查工具之前要对其进行详尽的了解,包括界值的确定,没有常模的情况下可以借助用ROC曲线;2.任何调查都存在抽样误差,在已有数据中选取

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