铝期货分析 Aluminum_Market_Anal.ppt

1、Aluminum Market Analysis,1.Foundamental analysis,1.1Quotation 1.2 Supply and demand 1.3 Related foreign futures contract -Aluminum in LME 1.4 Related economic index 1.5 Effects of related commodities 1.6 Related events 1.7 Conclusions about the economic situation,1.1Quotation,SH aluminum 1001 is quo

2、ted as 13490 Yuan per ton in 2009,6,8,1.2 Supply and demand,The supply is in excess of the demand. There are many aluminum left unused in the home market. Moreover, a great deal of aluminum are imported. However, the current aluminum prices temporarily deviate from the relationship between supply an

3、d demand and there is a bullish trend in the market. The present situation is in favor of going long.,1.3 Aluminum in LME,Name LME Al 03 highest：1655.0 Lowest：1595.0 Newest：1638.5 Purchasing price：1637.0 Selling price：1640.0 Position：825480 ton Inventory: 4,274,550 ton,1.4 Related economic index- Do

4、w Jones Industrial Average,品种名称 开盘 最高 最低 最新 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 日增仓 昨收 道琼工业 8764.83 8802.28 8725.27 8735.47 -0.33% 63738292 - 0 8764.49,NASDAQ,品种名称 开盘 最高 最低 最新 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 日增仓 昨收 纳斯达克 1850.48 1859.22 1846.34 1850.70 0.45% 576925696 - 0 1842.40,Top Countries in GDP,2008(billion dollars),countryGDP increasing

5、 rate - EU 18930 1.5% 1USA 14330 1.4% 2Japan4844 0.7% 3China4222 9.0%,09 GDP,The first season of 2009, GDP of the USA is $3518.875 billion, decreasing by 2.6% . The first season of 2009, GDP of 16 European countries is 239.1297, decreasing by 2.5%; while that of 27countries is 2929.9779 billion, dec

6、reasing by 2.4%. In china, GDP is ￥6574.5billion, increasing 6.1%.,CPI&PPI,In May 2009, Chinas CPI decreased by 1.4% and PPI decreased by 7.2% compared with last May. In the USA, CPI in April was close to last month, but decreased 0.7% compared with last year. PPI in April increased 0.3% and decreas

7、ed 1.2% in March. CPI in Europe increase 0.6%, but remained the same in May. And PPI kept decreasing by 4.6%, made it the greatest drop in annual rate.,Conclusion,The USA and Europe are experiencing economic depreciation, the increasing rate is slowing down, and wont recover soon. China experienced

8、less recession, and will keep increasing.,1.5 Effects of related commodities,The futures prices of Copper, zinc, and aluminum are closely related and share correspondent tendency. Because the prices of copper and zinc tend to increase as shown below, the price of aluminum may also increase in the fu

9、ture.,The price of SH futures copper 1001 from 13th ,May to 10th ,June saw an increase.,The price of SH futures zinc 1001 from 13th ,May to 10th ,June also saw an increase.,1.6 Related events,The dollar has weakened in international currency trading. Russia stopped supplying aluminum to Asia. The po

10、licy of supporting automobile industry in china increases the sales of cars and demand of aluminum.,Funds take part in the aluminum futures exchange. American automobile industry, represented by GM, is seriously weakened during the economic recession. Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Promotion Planning wa

11、s passed on 2，25 of 2009有色金属产业调整和振兴规划 The holding of Large reserves.,1.7Conclusion,On the whole , the advantages outweigh the disadvantages in terms of economic situation. So, it is advisable to go long.,2 Technical analyses 2.1价格分析-日K线（1）,价格分析-日K线（2）,价格分析-周K线（1）,价格分析-周K线（2）,价格分析-月K线（1）,价格分析-月K线（2）,

12、2.2沪铝1001日K线图09/5/13-09/06/10,沪铝1001周K线图08/08/29-09/06/10,沪铝1001月K线图05/04/28-09/06/10,2.3,The analysis of the price of the aluminum: At present, the price line of the aluminum is upward. We can analysis it with the following candlestick charts.,Resistance line,Support line,With the help of the daily

13、 candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines form the upward parallelogram (平行四边形)。,With the help of the weekly candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines are upward together, so they form the wedge（楔形）,Resistance line,Re

14、sistance line,Support line,With the help of the monthly candlestick chart, we draw the resistance line and the support line. The resistance line is upward, while the support line is horizontal.,The short-term price trend of the aluminum is upward, the medium-term price trend and the long-term price trend of the aluminum are also up