石油化工公司财务控制咨询报告(PPT 43页).ppt

1、石油化工股份有限公司财务成本分析项目方案,备注: 本文档所包含的内容属于DQ咨询的商业机密，其知识产权也归DQ咨询所有，任何个人与实体在未经DQ咨询许可的情况下不得复制与分发。,二零零一年四月十日,目 录,DQ DQ 咨 询 对 于 石 化 成 本 分 析 项 目 的 理 解 DQ 咨 询 对 于 石 油 化 工 行 业 的 成 本 分 析 案 例 介 绍 股 东 价 值 驱 动 的 分 析 模 型 如 何 在 石 化 一 体 企 业 中 实 施 财 务 分 析 系 统 DQ 咨 询 推 荐 的 对 于 石 化 成 本 分 析 的 解 决 方 案 规 划 DQ 咨 询 实 施 工 具 介 绍

2、问 答,目 录,DQ DQ 咨 询 对 于 中 石 化 成 本 分 析 项 目 的 理 解 DQ 咨 询 对 于 石 油 化 工 行 业 的 成 本 分 析 案 例 介 绍 股 东 价 值 驱 动 的 分 析 模 型 如 何 在 石 化 一 体 企 业 中 实 施 财 务 分 析 系 统 DQ 咨 询 推 荐 的 对 于 中 石 化 成 本 分 析 的 解 决 方 案 规 划 DQ 咨 询 预 计 的 本 阶 段 项 目 实 施 的 范 围 DQ 咨 询 实 施 工 具 介 绍 问 答,中石化财务管理信息系统建设的整体目标,中石化产业链与成本管理,原油 勘探,原油 开采,炼油,化工 生产,产品

3、 销售,成 本 核 算 / 管 理,生 产 成 本,管 理 成 本,销 售 成 本,全 方 位 成 本 管 理,采 够 成 本,股 东 价 值 驱 动 的 分 析 模 型,指标,运作,价值管理需要以下三个核心部分有效地运作,价值管理,战略,超前的战略 领先的地位,系统 流程 管理,准确的指标 准确的尺度,价值衡量需要有一整套指数,EVA is a registered trademark of the Stern Stewart Company,最可靠的衡量指数:,股东回报率Total Shareholder Return (TSR) 投资资本的现金流回报Cash flow return on

4、 gross invested capital (CFROI) 加权平均的资本成本Weighted-Average Cost of Capital (WACC) 可持续的资产增长率Sustainable Asset Growth Rate 未来现金流量的净现值Net present value of future cash flows (NPV or DCF),是否在创造价值? 表现如何? 什么是最低投资回报? 如何衡量增长? 公司的价值?,需要衡量的对象.,股东回报率TSR衡量上市公司的价值增长,为什么 TSR 是衡量价值 增长的最好指标,股东回报率TSR 定义,TSR = (市场差价 +

5、分红)/价格 = (2+1)/10 = 30%,12,1,10,股价 t = 0,分红,股价 t = n,反映了公司最终拥有者的回报率 用作各投资机构的积分卡 不受会计操作的影响 全面体现获利率和和增长率 是高层管理者持股分配的基础,股票价格,分 红,获利率和增长率驱动股价,股东回报率 (TSR),衡量分析指数,投资者回报,TSR定义,投资资本的现金流回报 CFROI,可持续增长,自由现金流,投资资本的现金流回报CFROI 全面衡量公司业绩,当上市公司拥有以下特征时，较为适合使用CFROI: 长年限的固定资产 (平均超过 15 年) 具有大量固定资产 固定资产非常陈旧或非常新 具有大型投资模板

6、和行为,益处,CFROI 定义,跨国家，跨行业，跨时间比较 不受资产的年限和组合的影响 全面 使内部决策和外部资本市场的表现挂钩 提供投资项目的回顾审计 与资本成本可直接比较,CFROI计算结果(1999年),5424 0 644 6,068 22,292 10,411 9,369 48,140,564 2163 1214 138 3891,Net Income Depreciation Interest Expense Minority Interest Gross Cash Flow,Net Working Capital +Land +Investments = Non Deprecia

7、ting Assets Net Fixed Assets Accum. Depr.* Inflation Adjustment* Gross Investment,资产年限 = 20,营运资本 + 土地,Sinopec 1999 ($ millions),Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statements,CFROI = IRR = 6.1%,48,140,4,079,6,068,*DC Estimates,Peers? Cost of Capital? Plan CFROI?,IRR：内部收益率,5927 0 739 6,666 22,897

8、10,599 9,539 49,701,1926* 2322* 814* 110* 5172*,Net Income Depreciation Interest Expense Minority Interest Gross Cash Flow,Net Working Capital +Land +Investments = Non Depreciating Assets Net Fixed Assets Accum. Depr.* Inflation Adjustment* Gross Investment,资产年限 = 20,营运资本 + 土地,Sinopec 2000 ($ millio

9、ns),Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statements,CFROI = IRR = 8.6%,49,701,5,172,6,666,*DC Estimates,Peers? Cost of Capital? Plan CFROI?,CFROI计算结果(2000年),IRR：内部收益率,Positive Spread Business,Neutral Spread Business,Negative Spread Business,Discount Rate: WACC,Increase CFROI Hold CFROI Grow Assets

10、 Erode CFROI Grow Faster,Increase CFROI Then Grow,Increase CFROI Reduce Reinvestment Divest or Liquidate,CFROI %,Strategies for Value Creation,任何业务都可创造价值 但需要按不同的情况设定战略,Note: this applies to business units as well as corporations overall,市场是如何设定股价的?,CFROI,Asset Size,Fade,Net Cash Flows,1 + Discount R

11、ate,Share Price,Asset Growth,=,Investors,评估使用表现指标和贴现现金流量,Gross Investment,Sustainable Growth,PV Cash Flow Existing Assets PV Cash Flow Future Investment Total Economic Value - Market Value of Debt1) Equity Value,34236 -1026 33210 -12687 20523,1) ST & LT, minority interest,2.2%,$49,701 m,8.2%,10%,$ m

12、il,$29.83/share,Fade Rate,Discount Rate,7.0%,CFROI,Sinopec, Fiscal 2000 estimate,的股价是由CFROI和增长决定的,4.2 2.2 0.2,Real Asset Growth Rate (%),CFROI (%),15.74 17.11 17.81 4.2,30.70 29.83 28.62 8.2,46.52 43.23 40.06 12.2,Sinopec equity value (fiscal 2000),Base Case,What is it worth if we improve?,Note: Gro

13、wth only improves value if CFROI improves to “positive spread”,如 何 在 一 体 企 业 中 实 施 财 务 分 析 系 统,CEO/Board,Business Units,Operations,How do I influence Share Price?,What is the best way to allocate my capital?,How do I improve execution?,Determine where value is being created/destroyed,Allocate capita

14、l like a portfolio manager,Implement a consistent & planning process linked to KPIs and comp.,Communicate to the market in a language they respond to,Fund Managers,Shareholders,How do I maximize shareholder returns?,Realize maximum value for shareholders - TSR,股价和运营的联接,各种价值指标的波动直接影响股价,Value Sinopec,

15、CFROI 1.1%,Asset Life 20 years,Asset Turns 0.36,Gross Plant Asset Turns 0.44,Net Cash Flow,Asset Growth 0.46%,Fade Rate 10%/year,Size Differential -.72,Leverage Differential +.57,Gross Cash Flow 2.394,Adjusted Gross Assets 48,002,Non-Dep. Assets 6,666,Operating Margin 16.2%,Sales Growth -?%,COGS as

16、a % of Sales 78.1%,SG&A as a % of Sales 5.6%,Inventory Turns 3.98,A/R Turns 9.11,CFROI Variability High,Ploughback Low to Average,Country Discount Rate 6.5%,1+ WACC,=,Unit Volume,Price Realisation,Value Drivers provide the direction and KPIs provide the feedback. A multi-tier system of measures is o

17、ptimal, with the most accurate (and usually complicated) used by the finance department. From there on, simplification and controllability of KPIs is critical as they are driven broadly and deeply throughout the organisation,Revenue Growth,Operating Margins/ Expenses,Working Capital,Asset Productivi

18、ty,Stimulate Sales Economic Devel Activities Expand service territory,Manage Cost Fuel usage Wage Rates,Manage Cash Billing/Collection Cycle Fuel and Stock Investment,Return on Capital Asset Availability Asset Utilisation,Cash Flow,Investment,财务回报,价值驱动,KPIs,% Rev New Products % Rev New Markets,Avera

19、ge heat rate % Cost Reduction,Inventory Turns Receivable Turns,Equivalent Availability Capacity Factor,方向,反馈,战略,我们该观注什么?,我们如何去做?,如何知道我们做得对?,KPI被用于监督运作，反馈于目标设立,什么是目标?,XXXPEC,Chemicals,Marketing,Refining,Upstream,Strategy focused on competitive position and new products Cost control, capacity utilizat

20、ion, new product development and product line management,Strategy focused on competitive position Pricing, regional shifts and format economics are key drivers Many small bets Value driven by customer strategy, store economics and growth,Strategy focused on flexibility versus efficiency Locked into

21、LP Mindset? Find “out of box” options Cost control and throughput are key short-term value drivers,Strategy focused on investment options Field versus new geography investment and exploration costs versus success rate are key drivers Many bets Value driven by price investment strategy and operating

22、effectiveness,Product line TSR, Plant CFROI,BU TSR & Station CFROI,Project IRR and refinery CFROI,BU TSR & project IRR,Metrics implemented,按不同的事业部特性确定价值衡量指标,% Gross Investment,CFROI,-5,0,5,10,20,Gas,Exploration,6.0,Chemicals,Refining and Marketing,Cost of Capital,15,各类投资项目的审核从划分事业部起始,Growth Projects

23、,CFROI Improvement Projects,CFROI Improvement Projects: Asset management,% of Gross Investment,%,Avg CFROI in Plan,Chemical 1,Exploration,Gas 1,Chemical 2,Gas 2,Gas 3,Marketing,Refining,6.0,Cost of Capital,Chemical 3,Chemical 4,而事业部进一步按业务类型细化,石油开采事业部,市场零售,炼油,举例：细分后的不同结果,Link to Strategy,Cleaning Sup

24、plies Household Products Chemical Additives Fertilizers Specialty Plastics,产品,市场,零售,工业,商业,政府,直销,举例(续)：按销售渠道进一步细化市场零售事业部,Link to Strategy,利润表: 销售 利润 管理费用 利息 折旧 税务 资产负债表: 应收帐款 存货 固定资产 应付帐款 负债,可获取 可获取 按人力分配 按负债额分配 预定年限 Division rate 按产品 可获取 特殊区分 按销售成本 按负债/权益,会计科目表,预计流程,而进一步将资产分配到各市场单位可深入分析投资回报率,Link to

25、 Strategy,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,-10,-5,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,商业,直销,零售,工业,政府,CFROI %,% Gross Investment,WACC,Consolidated CFROI,渠道获利率分析揭示了渠道的强弱,Link to Strategy,Sample Stores CFROI,Site,Keep,?,Keep Fix,Close,Strong,Weak,Weak,Strong,Stores were grouped for next steps,Cost of Capital 6.0%,Cons. C

26、FROI 17.0%,-5,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,Management,而零售渠道的进一步细分可揭示各零售点的强弱,Link to Strategy,Price/ Order,Order Size,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,Problem orders,而工业渠道注重于挖掘扩展能使之盈利的顾客,Link to Strategy,Commercial Direct Sales Retail Industrial Government,Customer Group,Good business, but limite

27、d growth Generally ignored, profitable but unexciting Well managed Value mature Thought to be profitable Good relationships with customers Problem area Necessary evil,Prior View,10% increase in growth doubles value “Hidden jewel” - re-addressed marketing strategy Results below peers in region Throug

28、hput identified as key value driver Site acquisition model re-done Asset intensity the key Focus on raising CFROI Significant problem area,Post VBM View,Maintain Aggressive growth plans Site improvement program New store format Evaluate accounts individually Focus on valuable customers Focus on impr

29、oving CFROI Expand into other products Possible exit,Next Steps,分析的结果引起显著的战略变化,Link to Strategy,Corporate Office,Internal “Capital Market”,BU 1,BU 2,BU 3,Project Life,Outlay,Project Life,Outlay,Cash Flow,Cash Flow,Project,Project,Internal View,Investors,External “Capital Market”,Stock 1,Stock 2,Stoc

30、k 3,External View,Accounting Data,Share Price,Income Statement,Balance Sheet,EPS, ROE, ROCE,CFROI,Growth,WACC,Fade,CFROI,Cash Flow,Gross Assets,Asset Life,CFROI 既用于外部投资，也由于内部管理,CFROI,CFROI 汲取了利润表和资产负债表中的各类数据(1),CFROI 汲取了利润表和资产负债表中的各类数据(2),Revenue Costs Operating Profit Tax,Profit and Loss Statement,

31、Operating Margin,Gross Margin,Expense Margin,Selling costs,Admin costs,Overhead costs,Other costs,Raw Material costs,Refining Costs,Overhead costs,计划驱动预算,Actual,Budget,Key,16.2%,16.5%,CFROI,Operating Margin,Asset Turnover,22.1%,23.5%,Gross Margin,5.6%,5.0%,Expense Margin,65.2%,60.5%,Raw Material,Ref

32、ining Costs,4.0%,3.5%,Selling Costs,Admin Costs,.87,.90,Fixed Assets,12.0,14.0,Working Capital,8.0,10.0,Receivables,18.0,20.0,Inventory,75%,80%,Utilisation Rate,10%,12%,Maintenance,0.73,8.7%,0.80,17.3%,16.7%,1.0%,1.0%,驱动预算三个主要方面,Provides a financial profile of the business for communication and anal

33、ysis Non-financial managers brought into value equation Summary measures broken down into parts for greater focus Graphically displays a comparison of performance standards Actual versus budget Current versus historic Sinopec performance versus “best practice” Relationships can be used for “what if?

34、” analysis:,AFA Financial Investment,Aeltus Investment Mgmt., Inc.,Alex Brown Capital,Allied Investment Advisors,Alliance Capital Mgmt. Corp.,American Century,American Century Investment,Atlantic Capital Mgmt.,Atlas Capital, L.P.,Arden Group, Inc., The,Auchincloss & Lawrence, Inc.,BP America, Inc.,B

35、TR Capital Management, Inc.,Bahl & Gaynor Investment Counsel,Bank of America,Bay Isle Financial,Boys, Arnold & Company,Cambiar Investment Inc.,Canyon Partners Inc.,Capital Research Co.,Capital Technology,CastleRock Partners,Chase Investment Counsel Corp.,Citibank,Clifford Associates,Columbia Managem

36、ent Co.,Composite Research & Management,Compu-Val Investments,Crabbe Huson Group, Inc.,Cramblit & Carney, Inc.,Creekside Investment Management,Crestwood Asset Management,Davis Selected Advisors, L.P.,Davis Skaggs Investment Mgmt.,Dean Witter Intercapital Inc.,Delaware Investment Advisors, Inc.,Eagle

37、 Global Advisors,Eaton Corporation,Edward Jones & Co.,Enright Financial Consultants,Equinox Capital Management,Eveans, Bash, Magrino & Klein, Inc.,Farmers Insurance Group of Companies,First National Bank, SW Ohio,Fleming Capital Management,Frontier Investment Management Co.,Frost National Bank,GMG/S

38、eneca Capital Management,GEM Land Company,General Accident Insurance Co.,General Motors Inv. Mgmt. Corp.,GlobeFlex Capital,Goefen & Glossberg, Inc.,Greenleaf Capital Management,Gries Financial Corp.,Guardian, The,HGK Asset Management, Inc.,Hotchkis & Wiley,Howard Hughes Medical Institute,Hughes Inve

39、stment Management Co.,Hutchens Investment Management,Investment Advisors, Inc.,Investment Counselors, Inc.,Janus,Johnson Investment Counsel, Inc.,Jurika & Voyles, Inc., Investment Mgmt.,KPM Investment Management, Inc.,Kalmar Investments, Inc.,Kanawha Capital Management,Kempner Capital Management, In

40、c.,Kennedy Capital Management,Kunath Karren Rinne & Atkin, Inc.,Legacy Capital Management,Legg Mason Capital Mgmt., Inc.,Leonard Management Group,Lockheed Martin Corp,Logan Capital Management, Inc.,Luther King Capital Mgmt.,Lutheran Church, The,McMurrey Investment Advisors, Inc.,Mercantile Trust,Mer

41、idian Investment Company,Merrill Lynch Asset Management,Mesirow Financial,Mississippi Valley Advisors,Montag Management,National City Bank,Nike Securities L.P.,Noroian Capital Management,Norwest Capital Advisors,NWQ Investment Management Co.,Oppenheimer Capital,OppenheimerFunds, Inc.,Oppenheimer Man

42、agement,Pacific Alliance Capital,Parnassus Fund, The,Peregrine Capital Management,Philip V. Swan Associates,Pioneering Management Corp.,Plaza Investment Managers, Inc.,Prudential Mutual Fund Investment,PSA Financial,Putnam Companies, Inc.,RCM Capital Management, LLC,RM Investment Management, Inc.,Ri

43、chard Blum & Associates,Roberts, Glore & Co.,Robertson Stephens & Co.,Roger H. Jenswold & Co., Inc.,Roulston & Company, Inc.,Salomon Brothers Asset Management,Sand Hill Advisors, Inc.,Schneider Capital,SCI Capital Management,Scholtz & Company,Securities Management & Research,Seligman, J.W. & Co., In

44、c.,Sentinel Trust Co.,SMC Capital Management,Sheffield Investment Management,Shields/Alliance,Signet Asset Management,Smith Barney Investment Advisors,Soros Fund Management,Sovereign Advisors, Inc.,Spears Benzak Salomon & Farrell,Spero Smith Investment Advisers, Inc.,Stafford Trading,Standard Pacifi

45、c Capital LLC,Star Bank,Starbuck, Tisdale & Associates,State of New Jersey,State Street Research,Stein Row & Farnham,Sterling Ltd.,Stonebridge Capital Management Inc.,Stoneleigh Investment Counseling,Strong Capital Management, Inc.,Sturdivant & Company, Inc.,Summit Investment Management,Sun Life of

46、Canada,Tiger Asset Management,T. Rowe Price,Texas Commerce Bank,TRUSCO Capital Management,Trust Company of the West,USAA Investment Management Co.,VA Retirement System,W.D. Hutchinson & Associates,Washington Investment Advisors,Weiss, Peck & Greer Investments,Wellington Management Company,Woodside A

47、sset Management,Fidelity Investments,Invesco Capital Management.,在美国使用CFROI的财务机构,Aeltus Investment Management, Inc. AMP Investments Australia American Express Asset Management Intl AXA Sun Life Invest Management Service* BOE Asset Management BFG Bank AG Bankers Trust Japan Baring International Briti

48、sh Aerospace Pension Investment CIS Co-operative Insurance Society CS Asset Management Capital Group Companies, Inc. Citibank Global Asset Management DEKA Deutsche Kapitalanlagegesellschaft Dresdner RCM Capital Management Dresdner RCM Global Investors Asia, Ltd. Deutsche Morgan Grenfel Asset Managem

49、ent Equitilink Fidelity Investment Services First State Fund Managers Ltd., Australia Fleming Investment Management Gartmore Investment Management* GIC Government of Singapore Investment GIM General Investment Management B.V. GlobeFlex Capital HSBC Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. HSBC Asset Management Japan, KK Hypovereinsbank IBJ Industrial Bank of Japan,INVESCO Asset Management Invesco GT As