专业课资料 练习题 真题 曼昆宏观英文版讲义 Ecn101_lecture9

1 0 Econ 101 Intermediate Macro Theory Lecture notes Professor Cetorelli UC Davis Fall 2003 Lecture 9 macroeconomics fifth edition N Gregory Mankiw PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich macro 2003 Worth Publishers all rights reserved CHAPTER SIX Unemployment CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 2 ReadingReading Chapter 6 pp 155 175 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 3 UnemploymentUnemployment The unemployment rate measures the fraction of people in the labor force without a job How does the unemployment rate for the U S look like over the past century Has the U S ever been in full employment 2 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 4 A century of unemployment CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 5 Social effects of unemploymentSocial effects of unemployment 1 Unemployment and social problems Each one point increase in the u rate is associated with 920 more suicides 650 more homicides 4000 more people admitted to state mental institutions 3300 more people sent to state prisons 37 000 more deaths increases in domestic violence and homelessness Each one point increase in the u rate is associated with 920 more suicides 650 more homicides 4000 more people admitted to state mental institutions 3300 more people sent to state prisons 37 000 more deaths increases in domestic violence and homelessness CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 6 Social effects of unemploymentSocial effects of unemployment 2 Unemployment and earnings growth 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 19651970197519801985199019952000 growth rate of inflation adjusted hourly earnings change in Unemployment rate CHAPTER 2CHAPTER 2The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Data of Macroeconomics slide 7 Categories of the populationCategories of the population employed working at a paid job unemployed not employed but looking for a job labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services all employed plus unemployed persons not in the labor force not employed not looking for work 3 CHAPTER 2CHAPTER 2The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Data of Macroeconomics slide 8 Two important labor force conceptsTwo important labor force concepts unemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployed labor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that participates in the labor force CHAPTER 2CHAPTER 2The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Data of Macroeconomics slide 9 Exercise Exercise Compute labor force statisticsCompute labor force statistics U S adult population by group May 2003 Number employed 137 5 million Number unemployed 9 0 million Adult population 220 8 million Use the above data to calculate the labor force the number of people not in the labor force the labor force participation rate the unemployment rate CHAPTER 2CHAPTER 2The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Data of Macroeconomics slide 10 Answers Answers data E 137 5 U 9 0 POP 220 8 labor force L E U 137 5 9 0 146 5 not in labor force NILF POP L 220 8 146 5 74 3 unemployment rate U L 9 146 5 0 061 or 6 1 labor force participation rate L POP 146 5 220 8 0 664 or 66 4 CHAPTER 2CHAPTER 2The Data of MacroeconomicsThe Data of Macroeconomics slide 11 Exercise Exercise Compute percentage Compute percentage changes in labor force statisticschanges in labor force statistics Suppose the population increases by 1 the labor force increases by 3 the number of unemployed persons increases by 2 Compute the percentage changes in the labor force participation rate the unemployment rate 2 1 4 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 12 Stylized factsStylized facts Unemployment rates fluctuates wildly in the short run over 3 5 years periods Unemployment rates fluctuates around a longer term average level which is fairly more stable CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 13 U S Unemployment U S Unemployment 19601960 20032003 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 196019651970197519801985199019952000 of labor force Unemployment rateNatural rate of unemployment 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 196019651970197519801985199019952000 of labor force Unemployment rateNatural rate of unemployment CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment Natural Rate of UnemploymentNatural Rate of Unemployment Natural rate of unemployment the average rate of unemployment around which the economy fluctuates In a recession the actual unemployment rate rises above the natural rate In a boom the actual unemployment rate falls below the natural rate Our focus here what determines the natural rate of unemployment Explanation of the short term fluctuations deferred to later chapters CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 15 A first model of the natural rateA first model of the natural rate Notation L of workers in labor force E of employed workers U of unemployed L E U U L unemployment rate 5 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 16 A first model of the natural rateA first model of the natural rate Assumptions Assumptions 1 Lis exogenously fixed 2 During any given month s fraction of employed workers that become separated from their jobs f fraction of unemployed workers that find jobs s rate of job separations f rate of job finding both exogenous CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 17 The transitions between The transitions between employment and unemploymentemployment and unemployment EmployedUnemployed s E f U CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 18 The steady state conditionThe steady state condition Definition the labor market is in steady state or long run equilibrium if the unemployment rate is constant The steady state condition is s E f U of employed people who lose or leave their jobs of unemployed people who find jobs CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 19 Solving for the equilibrium U rateSolving for the equilibrium U rate f U s E s L U s L s U Solve for U L f s U s L so Us Lsf 6 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 20 Example Example Each month 1 of employed workers lose their jobs s 0 01 Each month 19 of unemployed workers find jobs f 0 19 Find the natural rate of unemployment 0 01 0 05 or 5 0 010 19 Us Lsf CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 21 policy implicationpolicy implication A policy will reduce the natural rate of unemployment only if it lowers s or increases f CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 22 Why is there unemployment Why is there unemployment If job finding were instantaneous f 1 then all spells of unemployment would be brief and the natural rate would be near zero There are two reasons why f 1 1 job search 2 wage rigidity CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 23 Job Search Frictional UnemploymentJob Search Frictional Unemployment frictional unemployment caused by the time it takes workers to search for a job occurs even when wages are flexible and there are enough jobs to go around occurs because workers have different abilities preferences jobs have different skill requirements geographic mobility of workers not instantaneous flow of information about vacancies and job candidates is imperfect 7 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 24 SectoralSectoral shiftsshifts def changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions example Technological change increases demand for computer repair persons decreases demand for typewriter repair persons example A new international trade agreement causes greater demand for workers in the export sectors and less demand for workers in import competing sectors It takes time for workers to change sectors so sectoral shifts cause frictional unemployment CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 25 CASE STUDY CASE STUDY Structural change over the long runStructural change over the long run 4 2 28 0 9 9 57 9 Agriculture Manufacturing Other industry Services 1960 1 6 17 2 7 7 73 5 2000 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 26 More examples of More examples of sectoralsectoral shiftsshifts Late 1800s decline of agriculture increase in manufacturing Late 1900s relative decline of manufacturing increase in service sector 1970s energy crisis caused a shift in demand away from gas guzzlers toward smaller cars In our dynamic economy smaller sectoral shifts occur frequently contributing to frictional unemployment CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment Public Policy and Job SearchPublic Policy and Job Search Govt programs affecting unemployment Govt employment agencies disseminate info about job openings to better match workers jobs Public job training programs help workers displaced from declining industries get skills needed for jobs in growing industries 8 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment UI pays part of a worker s former wages for a limited time after losing his her job UI increases search unemployment because it reduces the opportunity cost of being unemployed reduces the urgency of finding work hence reduces f Studies The longer a worker is eligible for UI the longer the duration of the average spell of unemployment Unemployment insurance UI Unemployment insurance UI CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment By allowing workers more time to search UI may lead to better matches between jobs and workers which would lead to greater productivity and higher incomes Benefits of UIBenefits of UI CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 30 Why is there unemployment Why is there unemployment There are two reasons why f 1 1 job search 2 wage rigidity The natural rate of unemployment Us Lsf DONE Next CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 31 Unemployment from real wage rigidityUnemployment from real wage rigidity Labor Real wage Supply Demand Unemployment Rigid real wage Amount of labor willing to work Amount of labor hired If the real wage is stuck above the eq m level then there aren t enough jobs to go around 9 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 32 Unemployment from real wage rigidityUnemployment from real wage rigidity If the real wage is stuck above the eq m level then there aren t enough jobs to go around Then firms must ration the scarce jobs among workers Structural unemployment the unemployment resulting from real wage rigidity and job rationing CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 33 Reasons for wage rigidityReasons for wage rigidity 1 Minimum wage laws 2 Labor unions 3 Efficiency wages CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 34 1 The minimum wage1 The minimum wage The minimum wage is well below the eq m wage for most workers so it cannot explain the majority of natural rate unemployment However the minimum wage may exceed the eq m wage of unskilled workers especially teenagers If so then we would expect that increases in the minimum wage would increase unemployment among these groups CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 35 The minimum wage in the real world The minimum wage in the real world In Sept 1996 the minimum wage was raised from 4 25 to 4 75 Here s what happened Unemployment rates before after 9 1 8 5 Single mothers 5 3 5 3 All workers 17 0 16 6 Teenagers 1stQ 19973rdQ 1996 Other studies A 10 increase in the minimum wage increases teenage unemployment by 1 3 10 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 36 2 Labor unions2 Labor unions Unions exercise monopoly power to secure higher wages for their members When the union wage exceeds the eq m wage unemployment results Employed union workers are insiders whose interest is to keep wages high Unemployed non union workers are outsiders and would prefer wages to be lower so that labor demand would be high enough for them to get jobs Union membership and wage ratios by industry 2001 118 0 121 1 103 3 90 1 117 8 105 8 104 2 127 8 105 9 151 0 103 4 15 0 41 8 6 8 2 8 5 0 5 9 23 7 25 4 15 5 19 0 12 9 13 6 37 4 5 9 2 1 4 5 5 5 22 6 24 1 14 6 18 4 12 3 119 092 19 155 34 261 7 648 20 505 4 540 2 981 4 441 18 149 6 881 531 all government services fin insu and real est retail trade wholesale trade comm and pub util transportation manufacturing construction mining wage ratio RBU of total U of total employed 1000s industry U of total number of union members as a of total of employed workers RBU nonunion workers represented by a union wage ratio 100 union RBU wage nonunion wage slide 37 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 38 Comments to the previous tableComments to the previous table These data show that union workers and non union workers represented by unions earn about 18 more than non union workers in the same industry Also there is a positive correlation between the proportion of workers in unions or covered by union contracts and the wage ratio the correlation equals 0 5 source Bureau of Labor Statistics stats bls gov CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment 3 Efficiency Wage Theory3 Efficiency Wage Theory Theories in which high wages increase worker productivity attract higher quality job applicants increase worker effort and reduce shirking reduce turnover which is costly improve health of workers in developing countries The increased productivity justifies the cost of paying above equilibrium wages The result unemployment slide 39 11 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 40 The duration of U S unemployment The duration of U S unemployment average over 1993average over 1993 20022002 73 0 30 15 or more 20 5 31 5 14 6 5 39 1 4 amount of time these workers spent unemployed as of total time all workers spent unemployed of unemployed persons as of total of unemployed of weeks unemployed CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 41 The duration of unemploymentThe duration of unemployment The data More spells of unemployment are short term than medium term or long term Yet most of the total time spent unemployed is attributable to the long term unemployed This long term unemployment is probably structural and or due to sectoral shifts among vastly different industries Knowing this is important because it can help us craft policies that are more likely to succeed CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 42 The rise in European UnemploymentThe rise in European Unemployment Percent unemployed 1960 Year 19701965197519801985199019952000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 CHAPTER 6CHAPTER 6UnemploymentUnemployment slide 43 The rise in European UnemploymentThe rise in European Unemployment Two explanations 1 Most countries in Europe have generous social insurance programs 2 Shift in demand from unskilled to skilled workers due