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68Model for the Valuation of a Technology Established in a Manufacturing SystemG. Schuha, J. Schubertb, M. WellensiekbAbstractThe valuation of technologies is necessary in many situations. These vary from investments in machinery to manufacture developed products to the selection of new production technologies to fulfill customer demands. In this paper we present the current version of the developed model for the valuation of a technology in a manufacturing system. The model focuses on technology-related objectives of the manufacturing system and the link to relevant characteristics of manufacturing technologies. The valuation model of this on-going research allows to quantify, measure and assess consequences of the application of a specific technology and its value contribution to the manufacturing system Keywords: Technology Valuation; Technology Assessment; Manufacturing Systems Planning; Performance Measurement1. IntroductionIn many cases, manufacturing technology is a key driver for product innovation, for cost-reduction in the production process or for fulfillment of customer demands concerning quality or sustainability. Therefore, the assessment and selection of technologies capable to manufacture the firms current and future products is an important process in technology management 1. After the identification of new technologies, the assessment and selection can be supported by portfolio methods, scenario-based methods, expert judgment, pilot studies or financial methods. Within the technology assessment process, technology valuation aims at the determination of the economic value of a technology. The valuation of manufacturing technologies is often difficult, not only because the selection of one specific technology affects the whole manufacturing process chain. Moreover, the value-contribution of the technology to the manufacturing system influences the manufacturing performance. As depicted in Fig 1, on one hand，technology and manufacturing strategy should be in line with the business strategy and should therefore positively influence manufacturing and business performance, respectively. One the other hand, however,business strategy has to be based on the manufacturing and technology capabilities and competencies. If the strategies and objectives are in alignment, atechnology established in the manufacturing system can contribute to the improvement of manufacturing performance. An improved manufacturing performance in turn can positively influence the manufacturing contribution to the improvement of business performance 2. The a forementioned hierarchical structure of strategies and performance measures implies that a manufacturing technology valuation requires an investigation of the relationship between technology characteristics and manufacturing performance measures. However, the measurement of manufacturing performance is complex due to the multi-dimensional nature of manufacturing 3.Considering performance from a systems and technology point of view, Fig 2 shows the evolution of performance measures starting from cost-based measures in the 1960s according to 3. The emphasis of performance measures changed in different time periods. In the 1980s the total productivity measures and afterwards quality measures gained importance. Starting from the 1990s, the multi-dimensionalmeasures, such as cost, speed, dependability, quality and flexibility were used and generally accepted as performance indicators for manufacturing systems 3.In accordance to multi-dimensional manufacturing system performance measures, valuation of technologies also requires the consideration of multi-dimensional criteria. The presented valuation model aims at an extension of the one-dimensional financial view of existing technology valuation methods by integrating the multi-dimensional view. This would allow to determine the value-contribution of a technology established in a manufacturing system to the manufacturing performance, and hence to the business performance.In this paper, a new model for valuing a technology established in a manufa- cturing system will be presented.The paper is structured as follows. After the introduction, an overview of existing valuation approaches including their application is given in Section 2. In Section 3, the manufacturing technology valuation model is introduced. The framework for the valuation is proposed and the model assumptions are discussed. As a basis for the model, technology-related objectives of manufacturing systems are reviewed. Furthermore, limitations in current research, implications and future research issues are discussed. Finally, Section 4 includes a brief conclusion.Fig. 2. Evolution of performance measures towards value-contribution2. Valuation approaches: Literature overview2.1. ValuationManufacturing aims at creating value. However, the nature of value comprises multiple aspects. Values resulting from general socio-cultural framework conditions or individual preferences are characteristic of something being recognized, prized, admired or sought after 4. Whereas historically in the manufacturing environment cost issues were emphasized in evaluations 5, in manufacturing technology valuation an expansion of the traditional perspective is necessary. This is due to the fact that in technology assessment different value domains (such as functionality, economy, quality, flexibility, sustainability) have to be considered. Furthermore, the value of a technology can be expressed among others in score, index or monetary value 6.2.2. Existing technology valuation methods and their applicationThe main monetary technology valuation approaches comprise (according to 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11) discounted cash flow methods and real options approaches.In theory, monetary value models quantify the value of any asset (e.g. a manufacturing technology) by measuring the future cash flows that it will generate,corrected for the risk of those cash flows 7. According to the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach, the value V of a technology can be calculated as follows:Where CF denotes the cash flow in period t of a series of T cash flows. The cash flows are then subject to a discount rate k. Note that due to the fact that the focus lies on future cash flows, the determination of the monetary value is difficult and many assumptions and estimates are required.In practice, monetary technology valuation models to assess implemented manufacturing technologies and technologies that do not yet belong to the firms technological base, are only applied in limited cases.3. Manufacturing technology valuation model3.1. Objective and framework for the manufacturing technology valuationThe objective of the new manufacturing technology valuation model is to determine the value-contribution of an applied or future manufacturing technology to the manufacturing system. The model will provide methodological support when determining the influence exerted by a manufacturing technology on the value of a manufacturing system in terms of the value provided to the customer.A key element of the valuation model is the linkage of the systems technological objectives and technology oriented parameters via cause and effect relationships. The monetary value of the contribution made by the manufacturing technology hence can be determined on the basis of the expected discounted cash flows related to manufacturing technology deployment and the cause and effect relationships.The basic concept of the valuation model comprises four main modules (also described in detail in 12): Technology-related objectives of the manufacturing system: Derived from objectives and performance measures of the manufacturing system, technological objectives build the basis to define related cash flow categories (revenues and cost) of the monetary valuation model. Hence, manufacturing objectives and technology-related objectives are aligned and the influence of manufacturing technology on manufacturing performance and (partly) business performance can be proved, even in the case of conflicting objectives.Monetary valuation model: The discounted cash flow model is the basis of the proposed manufacturing technology valuation model. Due to the consideration of derived technology-related income and cost categories, it allows for a multi-criteria evaluation in terms of the technological objectives of the manufacturing system.Product and process-related technology description: The quantification of the value-contribution of a specific manufacturing technology requires an integrated view of the products to be manufactured and the existing processes. Therefore, a module-based technology description will be developed providing a uniform and comprehensive characterization of the technology deployed in the manufacturing system. Exemplary, different sub-modules of technology description outline technical characteristics, product-, process- and time related characteristics as well as quality-, flexibility-, sustainability- and investment-related characteristics. Relevant characteristics have to be identified via an influence analysis on cash flow (sub-)categories.Cause and effect relationships: Subsequently, cause and effect relationship have to be identified and presented quantitatively in order to link technological parameters with defined cash flow (sub-) categories. On one hand, existing principles can be used for the formal description of cause and effect relationships. On the other hand, methodological approaches to determine technology-specific cost drivers and cost functions will be analyzed. Once the dependencies (Which parameters are dependent on which others?) have been identified, the question What is the nature of the dependencies between parameters? has to be answered.The alignment of manufacturing performance and technological objectives combined with a monetary valuation model founded on product- and process-related technological characteristics and according cause and effect relationship, guarantee a consistent determination of the value-contribution of the manufacturing technology to the considered manufacturing system.3.2. Model assumptionsGeneral requirements concerning the valuation model comprise the following aspects (c.f. 6): firstly, a monetary value model is desired because this implies the real meaning of economic value aspired in the manufacturing industry. The structure of the model should be easy to understand and in consequence applicable in practice. Due to the huge variety of manufacturing technologies, the model should be adaptable or extendable to technology-specific aspects, respectively. Since the manufacturing technology valuation is a difficult and complex task, the model should allow for a decomposition in distinctive modules (e.g. cash flow categories), which can be investigated separately (with regard to cause and effect relationships, technological cost drivers and parameters), depending on its impact on value.3.3. Technology-related objectives of manufacturing systemsFollowing the definition by Deuermeyer, a manufacturing system is an objective-oriented network of processes through which entities flow (c.f. 13). The key words of the definition emphasize that a manufacturing system has objectives. According to Hopp and Spearman, the increase of the well-being of stakeholders (stockholders, employees, and customers) over the long term 13 can serve as funda-Table 1. Overview of manufacturing systems objectivesmental objective for almost any manufacturing company. Since such high-level objectives are generally not measurable and the description of interactions between components and their effect on the whole system is very complex 13, various supporting subordinate and conflicting objectives have to be defined. Table 1 and Table 2 summarize objectives and performance measures of a manufacturing system which were investigated by different authors in recent years (c.f. 5, 14 and 15). There is no consensus in literature on performance objectives of a manufacturing system. The objectives represent trade-offs 14, which have to be made in order to find the best solution with regard to the fundamental objective. Obviously, there is a need to measure the performance of a manufacturing system in terms of cost, quality, time and flexibility. According to Hon, the importance of sustainability objectives is increasing 5. For each objective, many individual measures exist and were applied in practice for measuring a specific characteristic on manufacturing performance on different levels (such as machine, cell, line, factory or network). Whereas for cost the number of individual measures is relatively high for example due to accounting standards, there is a lack of standards for flexibility performance measurement 5.As a basis for the valuation of a technology deployed in a manufacturing system, technology-related objectives of the manufacturing system are used as evaluation criteria. For this work, the subordinate manufacturing system objectives cost, quality, flexibility and sustainability will be used as top-level technologyrelated objectives in the further discussion and model development. By defining these objectives it was taken into account that the deployed manufacturing technology (technology characteristics) must have an impact on the objective, which can be described via a formal cause and effect relationship.Time aspects are not neglected, but were subordinate due to the fact that (technological) time measures (such as primary time or secondary time, machine down time) or productivity measures (machine utilization) influence different defined top-level objectives and are often used to derive related measures (e.g. manufacturing costs or delivery flexibility).3.4. The new valuation modelIn technology management, producing companies have to choose manufacturing technologies to produce current and future products. Thereby, technology managers need to link technology with business needs 16. According to the fundamental manufacturing systems objective, it is necessary to determine the value-contribution of a manufacturing technology to the system in order to identify the technology with the highest impact on manufacturing and hence business performance. This is done by considering the value associated with a manufacturing technology. The derived technology-related objectives of the manufacturing system can serve as evaluation criteria. Consequently, it is possible to choose relevant criteria and include those in the model.Based on the technology-related manufacturing objectives, the expected discounted cash flow model to determine the manufacturing technology value MTV can be described by the formulaWhere ECFt denotes the expected cash flow associated to the manufacturing technology in time period t, T denotes the end of the evaluation phase (use of the manufacturing technology) and WACC the weighted average cost of capital. For each time period, one has to subtract objective-oriented (anticipated) costs from the expected revenues r:Here, cost are derived by adding the manufacturing cost cM, quality cost cQ, flexibility cost cF, sustainability cost cS, capital cost cc and capital depreciation . In the following, the manufacturing technology-related revenues and expenditures are considered and their measurement is discussed.Technology-related revenuesAlthough customers generally purchase products and features rather than technologies, manufacturing technologies exert considerable influence on customersbenefit, differentiation and functions of products. Thus, technology-related revenues arise from selling manufactured products. According to Haag 11, the bundle of services of each product manufactured with the manufacturing technology under investigation has to be decomposed in order to analyse the impact of the technology on specific product utilities. Hence, its necessary to model the technology impact on the product(s). The decomposition of product(s) in functions and assignment of the manufacturing technology allows to evaluate the (additional) utility due to the technology (compared to the status when the technology would not be used to manufacture the product(s). To determine the technology impact on the utility of a product quantitatively, conjoint analysis, expert judgement or linear performance pricing (LPP)-method can be applied 11. Using the derived utility contribution of the technology, it is possible to calculate expected revenues based on a market analysis and scenarios on the selling of product(s) and associated prices. Since a flexible manufacturing technology can be utilised to produce various products, the described procedure has to take into account all products manufactured with the considered technology.Technology-related costAs shown in Formula 3, the technology-related cost factors have been divided into the categories manufacturing cost cM, quality cost cQ, flexibility cost cF, sustainability cost cS, capital cost cc and capital depreciation . Within each category, sub-categories have to be defined and linked with technology characteristics and parameters as depicted exemplary in Fig 3. As it is not feasible to include all cost parameters in this paper, representative costs are given for each category as follows:Manufacturing cost cM: material cost, maintenance cost, setup cost, unit labor cost Quality cost cQ: prevention cost, appraisal cost, internal failure cost, external failure cost Flexibility cost cF: machine flexibility, material handling flexibility, volume flexibility Sustainability cost cS: energy consumption, water use, waste generationCapital cost cc: interests payments, investment expenditure, risk Capital depreciation : decrease in value of the investment, capital depreciation resulting from rigors of manufacturingAfter defining cost factors, costs have to be linked with technology characteristics as exemplary shown in Fig 3 and cause and effect-relationship have to bedetermined.3.5. Future researchWithin this on-going research, further work that is needed to improve and to detail the introduced manufacturing technology valuation model includes developing and extending the current model: besides the determination of the technology-related revenues, the cost categories have to be detailed. Sub-categories have to be defined in order to structure the valuation. Due to the nature of flexibility, many different measurement schemes exist. However, especially the monetary quantification of flexibility remains challenging. In this case, a toolbox approach for flexibility measurements is aspired since the measure of flexibility has to be adapted for divers environments and situation specific. Subsequently, cost have to be linked with technology characteristics via cause and effect relationships. Although the descriptionFig. 3. Linking technology-related manufacturing objectives, associated cost and technology characteristicsof some relationships do exist, it is necessary to define a general process for the derivation of such cause and effect relationships accompanied with supporting methods and an appropriate technology description. Moreover, the applicability of the model has to be evaluated in case studies.4. SummaryA generic model to determine the value of a manufacturing technology in the context its deployment in a manufacturing systems is presented. The characteristics of the valuation model are summarized below: The value of a manufacturing technology heavily depends on the context of its application, i.e. the manufacturing system and its objectives. Existing valuation methods do not link technologyrelated objectives of the manufacturing system and technology characteristics. Hence, the proposed manufacturing technology valuation model aims at the determination of the value-contribution of an applied or future manufacturing technology to the manufacturing system. The monetary valuation model is based on the discounted cash flow approach. Revenues and cost categories are derived from technology-related manufacturing systems objectives. Structured revenue and cost factors and subcategories accompanied with cause and effect relationships to relevant technology characteristics shall be derived in this on-going research. A modulebased technology description is aspired to compare diverse manufacturing technologies in a uniform manner.The proposed monetary valuation model can help to eliminate the difficulty of complex interactions, conflicting objectives and different forms of data and information which are reflected by the number of different evaluation criteria in technology assessment. Hence, the presented model aims at the development of an innovative metrology, that can assist technologyoriented companies and technology managers in the valuation of applied or future technologies in a manufacturing system.AcknowledgementsThis research is supported by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG). The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the German Research Foundation within the project number SCHU 1495/43-1.References1 Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., Probert, D. R., 2004, A framework for supporting the management of technological knowledge, Int. J. 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L., 2000, Factory Physics Foundations of Manufacturing Management, McGraw-Hill.14 Almstrm, P., 2005, Development of Manufacturing Systems: A Methodology Based on Systems Engineering and Design Theory, Doctoral dissertation, Chalmers Univers. of Technology.15 Koho, M., 2010, Production System Assessment and Improvement A Tool for Make-to-Order and Assemble-to- Order Companies, Doctoral dissertation, TUT Publication 885.16 Phaal, R., Paterson, C. J., Probert, D.R., 1998, Technology management in manufacturing business: process and practical assessment, Technovation, 18 (8/9): 541:553.在制造系统中技术评估模型的建立G. Schuha, J. Schubertb,*, M. Wellensiekb摘要：在许多情况下，技术的评估是必要的。这些用于机械制造来开发产品以及以新的生产技术的选择来满足客户的需求的投资是不同的。在本文中，我们描述一个制造系统中技术评估模型建立的概念。该模型侧重于制造系统项目的相关技术以及与制造技术相关特性的联系。估价模型，这个正在进行的研究，可以量化，测量和评估一个特定技术的应用及其后果以及其对制造系统的贡献。关键词：科技评估，技术评估,制造系统规划，效应措施1.简介商业策略商业业绩在许多情况下，制造技术对于产品创新，以及在生产工艺或履行客户关于质量和可持续发展要求的过程中降低成本都是一个关键的驱动因素。因此，公司现在和未来产品的技术能力评估和选择对公司的技术管理是一个重要的过程。新技术产生之后，这种评估和选择可以通过组合方法，基于场景的方法，专家判断，试验研究或财务方法得以支持。在技术评估的过程中，技术评估的目的是确定技术的经济价值。制造技术的评估往往是困难的，不仅是因为一个特定技术的选择会影响整个制造过程链，此外，技术对于制造系统的价值贡献也影响制造业的生产。如图1所示，一方面，技术和制造业的策略应该和商业策略是一致的，并且应该对制造业和商业产生积极影响。但另一方面，商业策略必须是基于制造技术能力和竞争力而确定的。商业制造系统制造业策略制造业业绩技术价值贡献技术策略图A.1 商业策略调整，制造和技术策略及其对企业效应的影响如果战略和目标是一致的，那么在制造系统建立起来的技术有助于制造业的绩效提升。制造业效应的提升反过来会积极影响制造业对整个业务效应提升的贡献。上述的层次结构策略和绩效措施意味着制造技术评估要求在技术和制造业业绩之间的关系进行一项研究。然而，由于制造业的多维性，制造业效应的度量是很复杂的。考虑到系统效应和技术的方面，图2显示的是在1960的基础上效应措施的演变。在不同的时期，效应措施的重点有所改变。在1980，总生产率的措施以及产品质量的措施是效应措施的重点。从1990年开始，多维的措施，如成本，速度，可靠性，质量和灵活性慢慢的被承认为整个制造业系统的效应指标。根据多维制造系统的效益措施，技术的评估还需要对多维的标准进行考虑。所提出的评估模型，旨在扩展现有技术评估方法的一维财务视野，通过整合多维观念，将可以确定一个建立在制造系统中的技术对制造业绩的价值贡献，由此它对商业业绩的贡献也就确定了。图A.2 效应措施的演变对价值的贡献在本文中，用于评估制造系统中的技术的一个新模型将被提出来。本文的结构如下。简介之后，将对现有的评估方法包括了他们的应用在第2节中给一个概述。在第3节，介绍制造技术评估模型。评估的框架将被提出，模型的假设将被讨论。作为模型的基础，制造系统中的相关技术项目将被审查。此外，当前研究的局限性以及影响和未来研究的问题将被讨论。最后，第4节将给于一个简短的总结。2.评估方法：文献综述2.1.评估生产的目的是创造价值。然而，该自然价值包括多个方面。从社会文化框架条件或个人喜好的特征，都可以被认可、欣赏、寻求。在历史上，制造环境成本问题在评估、在制造技术评价中都被强调，这告诉我们扩张传统的观点是必要的。这是由于事实上，技术评估在不同的领域（如功能，经济，质量，灵活性，持续发展性）都得被考虑。此外，技术的价值可以被别人以评分，指数或货币价值来表示。2.2. 现有的技术评估方法及其应用主要货币技术评估方法包括现金流量折现法和实物期权法。从理论上讲，货币的价值模型对任何资产的量化值（例如制造技术）是通过测量它会产生的未来现金流，以及纠正这些现金流量的风险而达到。据现金流量折现法（DCF），一个技术的价值V可以按如下公式计算：其中CF表示在t期的一系列现金流对T的现金流量。现金流量受折扣率为k。请注意，由于这一事实，即焦点在于未来的现金流量，货币价值的确定是困难的，以及许多的假设和估计是必需的。在实践中，货币的技术估值模式对于评估制造技术以及不属于该公司技术基础的技术，只适用于在有限的情况下。3.制造技术评估模型3.1. 制造业技术估值的目标和框架新的制造技术估值模型的目标是确定现有或者未来制造系统的制造技术的价值贡献。就提供给顾客的价值来说，当制造系统中制造技术所施加的影响确定之后，该模型就将提供方法支持。估值模型的一个关键要素是系统技术目标的联系和技术导向参数的因果关系。制造技术所作出的货币价值贡献，可以通过预期的和制造技术发展以及因果关系相关的折现现金流来确定。估值模型的基本概念包括四个主要模块：制造系统的技术相关目标：源于制造系统目标和效应措施，技术目标奠定了定义货币估值模型相关的现金流量类别（收入和费用）。因此，制造业的目标和技术相关的目标是一致的，并且制造技术对制造效应和商业效应的影响是可以证明的，即使在相互冲突的目标之间也是可以的。 货币估值模型：现金流折现模型是制造技术估值模型的基础。由于考虑到科技相关的收入和成本类别的衍生，就制造系统的技术目标而言，允许一个多标准评估的存在。产品和过程相关的技术说明：一个特定制造技术的价值贡献的量化要求对产品制造以及现有程序有一个完整视角。因此，基于模块的技术描述将在制造系统中提供一个统一的和开发全面的技术部署特性。技术描述示范着不同子模块的技术特点，产品，过程和时间特性以及质量，灵活性，可持续性和投资相关的特性。相关的特征必须通过对现金流影响类别的分析来识别。因果关系：随后，因果关系必须被识别和量化以便连接技术参数和现金流类别的定义。一方面，现有的原则可用于因果关系的正式描述。另一方面，用来确定特定技术的成本驱动因素和成本函数方法论的方法将被分析。一旦决定因素确定，“参数依赖的本质是什么？”将得到回答。 制造效应和技术目标的调整结合了货币估值模型。这个货币估值模型建立在产品过程相关的技术特点和因果关系之上。保证制造系统中制造技术价值贡献的一致决定性。3.2. 模型假设有关估值模型的一般要求包括以下几个方面：首先，一个货币价值模式是必需的，因为这意味着制造业中真正意义上的经济价值。模型的结构应该很容易理解以及在实践中适用。由于制造技术种类繁多，该模型应该是适应于或可扩展到特定的技术方面，由于制造技术评估是一个艰巨而复杂的任务，该模型应允许分解为独特的模块（如现金流量类别），它可以分开调查（因果关系方面，技术成本的驱动因素和参数），并取决于其价值影响力。3.3.制造系统中技术相关的目标继Deuermeyer的定义之后，制造系统是一种以目标为导向，通过实体流动的过程网络。定义中关键词强调的是，制造系统应具有目标。根据Hopp和Spearman所说，长期的根本利益相关者（股东，员工和客户）的增加几乎可以作为所有的制造业公司的目标。通常，这类高层次的目标是无法衡量的，并且组件之间的关系以及其对整个系统的影响是非常复杂的，各种配套的附属和冲突目标必须被定义。表1总结了最近几年由不同作者调查的，制造系统中的目标和效应措施。制造系统中效应目标在文学上无法达到共识。目标代表取舍，它的制定是为了找到最好的解决办法。显然，有必要来度量制造系统中成本，质量，时间和灵活性方面的效应。根据Hon，可持续发展目标的重要性正在增加。对于每一个目标，存在着许多独立的措施应用在实践中，用于测量不同级别（如机器，电池，线，工厂或网络）制造效应的特定特点。而对于成本，个体措施的数量是比较多的，例如，由于会计标准的存在，从而灵活性效应测量的措施则缺少了。表B.1 制造系统的目标概述Chryssolouris（1992）Miltenburg（1995）Slack etal.（1998）Hill（2000）Hon（2005）Koho（2010）成本质量灵活性时间成本质量灵活性交付时间和交货时间可靠性效应创新成本质量灵活性速度可靠性价格质量一致性交付的可靠性发货速度需求增加生产范围成本质量生产率时间灵活性可持续发展质量时间交付时间可靠性生产灵活性成本作为在制造系统中技术发展评估的基础，制造系统中技术相关的目标被用作评估标准。对于这项工作，制造业系统的目标成本，质量，灵活性和可持续发展将作为进一步讨论的对象和模型目标发展的顶级技术相关目标。定义这些目标是考虑到发达的制造技术（技术特点）对这些目标会有一些影响，这可以被描述为一个因果关系。时间方面都不会被忽略，但是是次要的，原因是由于（技术）时间的度量（如作为主要的时间或第二时间，停机时间）或生产率的度量（机器利用率）影响了不同定义的顶级目标并且经常被用来获得其他相关的度量（如制造成本或交付的灵活性）。3.4 新的评估模型在技术管理，生产公司必须选择制造技术来生产当前和未来的产品。因此，技术管理者需要将技术和业务需要联系起来。根据基本的制造系统的目标，需要确定制造技术对系统的价值贡献，以此来定位制造技术对制造业和企业的最大影响和效应。这是通过考虑价值与制造技术关联而确定的。制造系统技术相关的目标可以被作为评估标准，因此，在模型范围内选择相关的标准是可能的。 基于技术相关的制造目标，预期的现金流模型确定的制造技术的价值MTV 可以用以下公式表示 其中ECFt表示在时间t内制造技术的预期现金流，T表示评估时间，WACC表示加权平均资金成本。每个时间段，从预期收益r中都得减去一个目标导向（预期）成本。在这里，总的成本由制造成本CM，质量成本CQ，柔性成本CF，可持续发展成本CS，资本成本和资本折旧费CC组成，并且，制造技术的收入和支出被考虑在内。尽管消费者通常所购买的是产品和它的使用价值而并非是技术，但制造技术的确对消费者的利益及其分化以及产品的功能产生极大的影响。这样的话，技术相关的收入来源于销售产品。根据Haag，用经过调查的制造技术来制造的每件产品的捆绑服务必须分开，这样是为了分析技术对特定产品的影响。所以，建立起技术对产品的影响的模型是十分必要的。因为技术的原因，产品功能的分解和制造技术的转让允许去评估（额外）效用（与当技术不被用来制造产品的情形相比）。为了确定技术对商品效用的影响，联合分析，专家判断或线性性能定价（LPP）方法等都可以应用。使用派生的实用技术贡献就可以根据产品的销售（s）和相关价格的市场分析和情景来计算预期收入。由于柔性制造技术可以被用来生产各种产品，所描述的生产过程必须考虑所有的产品用考虑过的技术进行制造。正如公式3所显示的，与技术相关的成本因素被分成制造成本CM，质量成本CQ，灵活性成本CF，可持续发展成本CS，资本成本CC和资本折旧费用。在每个类别中，必须定义子类，并与技术特性和参数相匹配，如图3所示。因为在这篇文章中包括所有的成本子类是不现实的，每个类别只给了有代表性的子类成本，现列举如下：制造成本CM：材料成本，维护成本，安装成本，单位劳动力成本质量成本CQ: 预防成本，鉴定成本，内部故障成本，外部故障成本灵活性成本CF的：机器的灵活性，材料处理的灵活性，体积灵活性资本成本CC：利息支付，投资支出，风险资本贬值：投资价值的减少，制造业萧条导致的资本折旧定义成本因素后，成本必须和产品特性相对应，就像图3所示的那样，而且因果关系必须被确定。3.5未来研究这是个持续的研究，