摩根斯坦利大中华区首席经济学家王庆讲座课件

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Morgan Stanley Asia Limited 王 庆 博士 大中华区首席经济学家 +(852)2848-5220 Research Asia/Pacific 中国经济 短期：防通胀 中长期：调结构 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosures Section, located at the end of this report. 2 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 中国的政策取向 : 正常化 中国的政策取向 : 全面紧缩 美欧日 乏力复苏 秋 : 不温不火 夏 : 过热 冬 : “二次探底” 春 : “软着陆” 美欧日 强劲复苏 2010年的四个季节 3 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 经济软着陆实现 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research estimates 1 1 . 31 0 . 19 . 06 . 58 . 19 . 61 1 . 91 0 . 31 1 . 36 . 89 . 6579111315Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10G D P (Yo Y, % )S o f t L a n d i n g9 . 57 . 57 . 11 5 . 11 2 . 79 . 89 . 28 . 31 0 . 02 . 81 1 . 1048121620Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10G D P (Q o Q , % , SA A R )R e g a i n e d M o m e n t u m4 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中国在经济全球化背景下的超级周期 2008: “输入型软着陆” 2009: “政策推动型脱钩” 2010: “不温不火” 20011: “再通胀 ” 大衰退 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 5 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 政治周期驱动的投资周期 Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates 0510152025303540451990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Y e a r o f c h a n g e o f g o v e r n m e n tB e g i n n i n g Y e a r o f A N e w 5 - y r P l a nR e a l FA I G r o w t h6 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 2010年：通胀未见顶 Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates -4-20246810Mar-98Dec-98Sep-99Jun-00Mar-01Dec-01Sep-02Jun-03Mar-04Dec-04Sep-05Jun-06Mar-07Dec-07Sep-08Jun-09Mar-10Dec-10Sep-11- 2 8- 2 1- 1 4-707142128354249566370C P I , % Y o YE x p o r t s ( % Y o Y , r h s )E x t e r n a l S h o c k s-3036912Mar-97Dec-97Sep-98Jun-99Mar-00Dec-00Sep-01Jun-02Mar-03Dec-03Sep-04Jun-05Mar-06Dec-06Sep-07Jun-08Mar-09Dec-09Sep-10Jun-11Mar-1269121518212427303336C P I ( % Y o Y )M 1 ( % Y o Y , 2 Q - l e a d , r h s )7 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 2011年：通胀重新抬头 Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates - 1 5- 1 0-5051015Mar-97Mar-98Mar-99Mar-00Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11-4-2024681012D e v i a t i o n o f M 1 f r o m t h e t r e n d ( % )C P I ( r h s , % )- 3 0- 2 0- 1 00102030Mar-97Mar-98Mar-99Mar-00Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11-4-2024681012D e v i a t i o n o f E x p o r t f r o m t h e t r e n d ( % )C P I ( r h s , % )8 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 为什末是 M1？ Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates D i f f e r e n c e o f M 1 a n d M 2 G r o w t h R a t e ( p p t )- 1 5- 1 0-50510151997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010101520253035Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11-3036912M 2 ( Y oY , % , 9 m - l ea di ng )C P I ( Y oY , % , r hs)9 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 境外金融资产 境内有形资产 高储蓄 高投资 外汇储备 资本账户管制 人口结构 人口政策 流动性创造 境外有形资产 不发达的资本市场 资产价格上行压力 P Y S S D D 低通胀 高增长 非对称 资本账户开放 放松价格管制 “过度储蓄”的优点：危机过后对中国经济的反思 消费习惯的粘性 限制 金融杠杆 避免人民币 单边升值预期 增加证券 化资产供给 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 10 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 “调结构”图解 “结构失衡” 国民经济 支出结构 国民经济 收入结构 国民经济 产业结构 投资 消费 净出口 国家 企业 居民 农业 工业 服务业 降低储蓄率 增加工资 发展服务业 社保体系 集体工资谈判 工会的作用 市场准入 理顺价格 11 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 以史为鉴 Source: Angus Maddison, 2006, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD. 12 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 经济增长与通胀 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research -303691215T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40T+45-303691215C h i n a (T =2 0 0 7 )Ko re a (T =1 9 8 8 )Ja p a n (T =1 9 6 9 )GDP Growth(%,3-yr MA) O il c r is is A s ia f in a n c ia l c r is is-50510152025T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30-50510152025C h i n a (T =2 0 0 7 )Ja p a n (T =1 9 6 9 )Ko re a (T =1 9 8 8 )CPI(%,3-yrMA)O i l cri s i s13 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 经济结构如演变 生产结构 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 1520253035404550T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40T+451520253035404550C h i n a (T =2 0 0 7 )Ko re a (T =1 9 8 8 )Ja p a n (T =1 9 6 9 )I n d u s t ri a l s e ct o r (% o f G D P)1525354555657585T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40T+451525354555657585C h i n a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )S e r v i c e s e c t o r( % o f G D P )15202530354045T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40T+4515202530354045C h i n a (2 0 0 7 )Ko re a (1 9 8 8 )Ja p a n (1 9 6 9 )I n d u s t ri a l s e ct o r (% o f G D P)1525354555657585T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40T+451525354555657585C h i n a ( 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( 1 9 6 9 )S e r v i c e s e c t o r( % o f G D P )14 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 经济结构如演变 支出结构 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 45505560657075808590T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+4045505560657075808590C h i n a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )C o n s u m p t i o n( % o f G D P ) 20253035404550T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+4020253035404550C h i n a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )I n v e s t m e n t( % o f G D P )5560657075808590T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+405560657075808590C h i n a (2 0 0 7 )Ko re a (1 9 8 8 )Ja p a n (1 9 6 9 )C o n s u m p t i o n(% o f G D P) 202530354045T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40202530354045C h i n a (2 0 0 7 )Ko re a (1 9 8 8 )Ja p a n (1 9 6 9 )I n v e s t m e n t(% o f G D P)15 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 经济结构如演变 经常账户 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research -8-6-4-20246810T-20T-15T-10T-5T T+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35C h i n a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )T r a d e b a l a n c e( % o f G D P , 3 y r m a )16 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 经济结构如演变 收入结构 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 0102030405060T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+350102030405060C h in a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )P r o f it s( % o f G D P )30354045505560T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+3530354045505560C h in a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )L a b o r in c o m e( % o f G D P )17 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中国经济不是奇迹，但有其特殊性 竞争优势 时间 时间 日本 亚洲四小龙 东南亚 中国 越南 经济特区 珠 /长江三角洲 东部地区 中部地区 西部地区 Source: NRI Papers No. 52 竞争优势 18 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中国经济不是奇迹，但有其特殊性 Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Maddison (2006) 024681012141960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990Jap anJap an +Drag on +T i g er ( av erag e)G D P g ro w t h (% , 3 y r MA)The Flying Geese As a Whole Decelerated Less Than the Lead Goose 19 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 经济结构如演变 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 前 后 前 后 20 00 - 09 20 10 - 20宏 观G DP 增 长 ( %) 10.4 6.3 10.0 7.6 10.3 8.0通 胀 ( %) 5.4 6.9 4.0 6.2 1.9 3.5结构生 产农业 11 10 25 22 17 15制造 业 39 32 30 26 40 35服 务业 50 58 44 52 43 50支出消 费 60 69 60 65 49 54投 资 39 32 38 35 48 43收入劳动者 43 54 41 44 40 45企 业利润 38 27 37 31 31 30中国占 G DP 比重日本 ( 19 69 ) 韩国 ( 19 88 )20 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 水平与速度 汽车与钢铁 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 050100150200250300350400450500T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40C h in a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 8 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )N o . o f P a s s e n g e r C a rp e r 1 0 0 0 p e r s o n s051015202530354045T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35T+40C h in a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 8 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )N o . o f P a s s e n g e r C a r( Y o Y % )02004006008001 , 0 0 01 , 2 0 0T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35C h in a ( T = 2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T = 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )S t e e l C o n s u m p t io n p e r c a p it a ( m e t r ic t o n )- 2 0- 1 0010203040506070T-30T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5 TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35C h in a ( T = 2 0 0 8 )K o r e 1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T = 1 9 6 9 )S t e e l C o n s u m p t io n ( % Y o Y )21 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 担心 : 劳动适龄人口增长迅速减速 Source: UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision), Morgan Stanley Research 0. 00. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80. 91950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Total D e p e n d e n c y R a t io-404812161980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Po p u l a ti o n Grow thW o rk i n g -a g e Po p u l a ti o n Grow th% Grow th , 5 -y r p e ri o d22 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 现实：人口增长和经济增长脱钩 246810121416181970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 20090 . 51 . 01 . 52 . 02 . 53 . 03 . 54 . 04 . 5G D P G r o w t hE m p l o y m e n t G r o w t h ( r h s)W o r ki n g - a g e P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h ( r h s)% , 3 - yr M AA v e ra g e G D P a n d Em p l o y m e n t G ro w t h2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 90 3 6 9 12C h i n aI n d i aI n d o n e s i aK o r e aT h a i l a n dEm p l o y m e n t G ro w t hG D P G ro w t h%Source: CEIC, CEIC, UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision), Morgan Stanley Research Morgan Stanley Research 23 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 行业间劳动生产率差距巨大 3 . 03 . 54 . 04 . 55 . 05 . 51990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008R a t io o f N o n - p r im a r y / P r im a r y P r o d u c t iv it y Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 24 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 行业间劳动力转移潜力巨大 010203040506070T-25T-20T-15T-10T-5TT+5T+10T+15T+20T+25T+30T+35Chi n a (T =2 0 0 7 )Ko re a (T =1 9 8 8 )J a p a n (T =1 9 6 9 )% o f Pri m a ry Em p l o y m e n t i n T o ta l050100150200250300350T-18T-15T-12T-9T-6T-3 TT+3T+6T+9T+12T+15T+18T+21T+24T+27T+30T+33T+36T+39C h ina ( T=2 0 0 7 )K o r e a ( T=1 9 8 8 )J a p a n ( T=1 9 7 0 )In d e x e d a t 1 0 0 a t TSource: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 25 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 “ 中国消费不足 ” 被夸大 Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research 26 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 “ 中国消费不足 ” 被夸大 Source: Morgan Stanley Research C o m p a ri s o n o f U S-C h i n a C o n s u m p t i o n :R a t i o o f C h i n a O v e r U S (% )3616233038 385969020406080100H o u s i n g S e r v i c e s O v e r a l l F i n a n c i a lS e r v i c e s *P o w e rU s a g eT r a d a b l eG o o d sT e l e c o m * D r i n k i n gM i l k P r o dA u t oS a l e sB e e r158中国个人消费占美国的比例（ %） 啤酒 汽车 奶饮品 通讯 可贸易品 居民 用电量 金融 服务业 全部消费 服务业 住房消费 27 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 胃口好 肥胖 : 如何看待 过度投资 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research T o t a l F C F T o t a l F C F F C F D e p n F C F D e p n1 9 7 7 - 2 0 0 8 1 9 8 9 - 2 0 0 8 O v e r 2 0 Y rs % o f 0 8 G C FU S D p e r ca p i t aC h i n a 9 , 2 6 0 8 , 2 4 7 412 30%T a i w a n 6 4 , 9 7 7 5 6 , 4 6 2 2 , 8 2 3 84%K o re a 8 2 , 7 5 7 7 4 , 7 3 7 3 , 7 3 7 67%U S A 1 6 1 , 4 4 2 1 2 4 , 8 0 2 6 , 2 4 0 89%J a p a n 2 1 8 , 4 3 8 1 7 6 , 0 0 4 8 , 8 0 0 99%53911195000100200300400500600K o r e a US J a p a n C h i n aS t e e l : C o n s u m p t i o n i n 2 0 0 8 ( m n t o n )418242605101520253035C h i n a K o r e a US J a p a nSt e e l : O u t s t a n d i n g St o ck (t o n p e r ca p i t a )累计投资量 28 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 消费的黄金时代 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%0 2 , 0 0 0 4 , 0 0 0 6 , 0 0 0 8 , 0 0 0 1 0 , 0 0 0 1 2 , 0 0 0Be i j i n gSh a n g h a iJ i a n g s uZ h e j i a n gAB CDG u a n g d o n gSh a n g d o n gT i a n j i n gG u i z h o uT i b e tQ i n g h a iJ i n l i nSh a a n x i29 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 中长期 : 消费的驱动因素 Source: Morgan Stanley Research Pi l l a r 1 :R i s i n g I n c o m ePi l l a r 2 :L o w e r Sa v i n g R a ti oPi l l a r 3 :C o n s u m p ti o n U p g r a d eWageIncreaseUrbanizationLevelof EconomicDevelopmentEconomicGrowthAgingPopulationC o n su m p t io n Dr iv er sGovernment ExpenditureDevelopment of ServiceIndustryIncomeRe-distribution30 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 社会保障房计划 决定中国“调结构”的成败！ 31 王 庆 , +(852)2848-5220, M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 2010年 11月 中国经济 Information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by one or more of the following, which accept responsibility for its contents: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. 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