大重置如何改变了美国？how the great reset has alredy changed anmerica.doc

How The Great Reset Has Already Changed America“大重置”如何改变了美国By Richard FloridaIn the wake of the recession, cities and suburbs are being knit into giant city-states, with millions ofpeople and billions - even trillions - of dollars of business. 经济衰退之后，城市和郊区逐渐结合成巨大的城邦，拥有数百万人口并口数十亿甚至万亿美元的生意。-A year ago, I published a book that argued that, for allthe privations and dislocations of the economic crisis, it also provides us with the opportunity to make fundamental changesin our economy and society. I characterized these changes as a Great Reset, and I found similar moments in American history when new economic orders arose from the ashes of old ones,ushering in new eras of growth and prosperity.Since writing the book, Ive been able to see for myself what Ive long suspected: that Great Resets unfold not fromtop-down policies and programs but gradually, as millions upon millions of people respond to challenging economic times by changing the ways that they live. The economic crisishas taught us the hard way that we need to live within ourmeanss, to forestall debt; its made us understand that we dont have to define ourselves in terms of material goods, thatwe can achieve a more meaningful and sustainable way oflife.Watching the Reset unfold, its been fascinating tosee how quickly the once great divide between our citiesand suburbs has been shrinking. The most desirables,neighborhoods look increasingly similar, no matter where they are. The best urban neighborhoods are safe and have good schools; they are becoming stroll ervilles and toddler-towns, filled with families as well as singles. The best suburban neighborhoods have great commercial districts with restaurants, movie theaters, and all manner of amenities.As many of our cities and older inner-ring suburbs are being renovated and revitalized, the great challenge of our time - far bigger than urban renewal was in decades past- is to remake our many shoddily-built, far-o exurbs into denser, more-connected, more livable communities.Some of them - the ones that were built as much to keep the building boom going as because people needed to live in them - might be fated to shrink back into small towns or disappear altogether.In my travels across the country, Ive heard from people.who are in the process of resetting their lives. Young people just out of college tell me that they dont want their parentssuburban lifestyle; theyd prefer to find an affordable rental apartment in a city they love where economic opportunities are better. They dont want to go into hock buying a big house and a big car, just so they can endure a long commute.Young parents tell me theyve had to defer their dream of buying a bigger house with a backyard, either because they cant afford it or dont qualify for a mortgage.Instead, theyve decided to stay put and renovate their city apartment or fix up their small house in an older, closer-in suburb. Empty nesters tell me theyve decided to sellthe big house, sometimes for a lot less than they could have gotten for it a few years ago, and buy a smaller condo or house closer to their kids in the city.These shifts, brought on by economic exigencies,are already adding up to a gradual but enduring change in the way we live - one that will prove every bit as consequential as the move towards suburban living was in the1950s and 1960s.Gradually, our great complexes of cities and suburbs are being knit into mega-regions - giant city-states that are hometo millions upon millions of people and generate billions and in some cases trillions of dollars of economic activity. Driving this is not just our individual choices and preferences but the very logic of economic development. Geographic concentration and clustering speeds the transmission of new ideas, increasesthe underlying productivity of people and firms, and generates powerful economies of scale.This new economic landscape and emerging way oflife wont come together completely on their own. All of this must be underpinned and supported by new kindsof infrastructure - from more efficient living patterns to more effective, less car-dependent transportation systems that run the gamut from more bicycle paths and sidewalks to improved mass transit and high speed rail. Just as government programs and policies underpinned the rise of suburbia in the 1950s and 1960s (think of all thosesubsidized highways), new public policies toward rental and affordable housing, alternative transport, and more sustainable energy will help encourage this shift today.But while individual Americans have already begun resetting their lives, our political and business leaders continue to look backwards, wasting precious time and resources on futile attempts to resuscitate the same dysfunctional systemof banks, sprawl, and inefficient and energy-wasting ways of life that brought about the crisis in the first place.According to Bureau of Labor Statistics projections, theUS economy remains on track to generate 15 million newjobs over the next decade. 6.8 million of them will be high-skill, high-wage work in the knowledge, professional, and technical sectors of the economy. The other half will be much lower-paying, low-skill work in the routine service sector ofthe economy. More than 45 percent of the US workforce -60 million workers - already do this kind of work, and they earn just half of what factory workers make - and only athird of what professional, technical and knowledge workers are paid.If were serious about creating good, family-supporting jobs, we have no choice but to upgrade those service jobs and turn them into adequate replacements for the blue-collar jobs that have been wiped out. We did it 70 or 80 years ago when we transformed manufacturing jobs fromlow-paid, dangerous work into high,paid jobs; we must doit again.Henry Ford long ago said that we needed to pay factory workers better so they could buy the cars they made. Ifeach of us pays Just a little more for services, we can ensure millions of service workers a family wage and spur the broad-based demand that will help the economy recover. Dont the people who prepare our food, take care of ourkids and aging parents, and maintain our homes deserve decent wages? Cant we spend a little more to ensure a more equitable and prosperous society? Its not a matter of charity. Motivated workers are more productive; theyre also more creative and innovative.Easy credit, limited bailouts, and targeted stimulus have simply created the illusion of growth; without beginning to address the structural nature of the crisis. And much of what the Tea Partiers have been calling for - slashing taxes and cutting critical public investments - will only make things worse. Our leaders just arent getting it; their mental models are so determined by the old order that they cant acknowledge that it has already passed.We need to break with the past and engage with the future that is already upon us. There is no stopping this ongoing Great Reset. But left to its own devices it willunfold in a stop-and-start, trial-and-error fashion overthe course of the next two, maybe three decades. My hope is that we can move more quickly down the path to real recovery, minimizing the pain and suffering faced by too many, and ushering in a new era of sustainable prosperity for everyone.一年前，我在出版的一本著作中提出，尽管经济危机导致了贫困和混乱，但同时它也为我们提供了从根本上改变我们的经济和社会的机会。我把这种变革称为“大重置”，并且我发现，在美国历史上，每当新的经济秩序从旧的经济秩序的灰烬中萌生时，类似的情形就会出现，开启一个增长与繁荣的新时代。 自从写了这本书，我便能够自己去审视长期以来所怀疑的一切：“大重置”并非始于自上而下的政策和计划，而是随着亿万人通过改变生活方式来回应这一富于挑战性的经济时期而逐渐展开的。经济危机使我们痛定思痛，要防止债务，我们得量入为出地生活；它使我们懂得了，我们不必以物质产品界定自身生活，我们可以拥有更有意义的、可持续性的生活方式。 纵观“大重置”的展开，看到城市和郊区之间一度巨大的差异在如此迅速地缩小，是非常有趣的。不管是在哪里，最合意的街区日益相似。最佳都市社区治安良好，拥有优质学校；它们正成为“婴儿城”和“幼儿城”，随处可见的不仅是单身者，而且还有很多家庭。最佳郊区居住区则是由饭店、影剧院以及各种康乐设施构成的大商业区。 随着我们很多城市和内环旧郊区逐步得到翻新和复苏，我们所处时代的巨大挑战比过去几十年的市区改造要大得多就是将很多粗制滥造的、年代久远的远郊区改造成人口更为密集、联系更为紧密、环境更为宜居的社区。其中有些郊区的建设原本是既为保持建筑业的繁荣，同时也因为人们有对住房的刚性需求，而现在它们可能注定要缩减回小城镇或者完全消失掉。 在周游全国的旅途中，我采访了正在重新调整生活的人们。刚刚大学毕业的年轻人告诉我，他们不想要父母那种郊区生活方式；他们宁愿在他们喜欢的经济机会较好的城市住租得起的公寓。他们不想靠抵押来购买大房子和大轿车，因为这样做他们得忍受远距离上下班。 年轻父母告诉我，他们不得不推迟购买带后院的大宅的梦想，或因为他们买不起，或因为无资格申请按揭。相反，他们决定住在原地，改造城里住房或修整位于年久老化的近郊区的小房子。空巢老人告诉我，他们决定卖掉大房子有时出手的价钱要比几年前他们能出手的价钱少得多购买一套小一点的公寓或住宅，以便离城里的孩子更近一些。 这些因经济危机所引起的转变意味着我们的生活方式将发生逐渐而持久的变化这一变化与上世纪50、60年代的郊区化运动一样，具有重大意义。我们巨大的城郊结合体被逐渐连接成超大的区域居住着千百万人、进行着数十亿，有时甚至是数万亿美元的经济活动的巨型城邦。推动这一进程的并非我们个人的选择和喜好，而恰是经济发展的必然结果。地理聚集加速了新观念的传播，提高了人和公司的潜在生产力，产生了强大的规模经济。 这种新的经济图景和新兴生活方式并非完全自发地走到一起。所有这一切都必须以各种新的基础设施作为基础和支撑从效率更高的生活模式到更为有效、较少依赖汽车的交通系统，这种系统涵盖了一切，从日益增多的自行车道和人行道到日益改善的公共交通和高速铁路。正如上世纪五六十年代，政府计划和政策为郊区的兴