人民币入篮-2015-11

1、人民币入篮词汇表IMF：国际货币基金组织PBoC：央行HSBC：汇丰银行SDR special drawing right: 特别提款权，即分配给会员国的记账单位SDR basket货币篮子目前包括美元、欧元、日元及英镑Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect：沪港通onshore spot market：在岸即期市场Volatility：波动性renminbi trading band：人民币汇率中间价notional currency：名义货币the world's fifth-largest payment currency：全球第五大支付货币disman

2、tle capital controls：解除资本管制the MSCI All Country World Index：摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数JPMorgan Asset Management：摩根大通资产管理公司investable currency：可投资货币central banks and sovereign wealth funds：各国央行和主权财富基金renminbi-denominated assets：人民币计价资产government bond：国债resume swap lines：恢复货币互换rules on portfolio investment flows：针

3、对证券投资流动的规定SDR： “some day renminbi，有朝一日将是人民币分析：预计IMF今日将人民币纳入SDR2015-11-30英国金融时报网月报道称，预计国际货币基金组织(IMF)日将把中国的人民币纳入其精英储备货币篮子。这将是对中国经济改革和人民币国际化努力的一张重大信心投票。IMF股东将以压倒性多数投票支持让人民币成为该组织货币篮子中的第五种货币，确认中国进入世界顶级经济体行列。IMF货币篮子用于对其事实上的货币特别提款权(SDR)进行估值。此举发生在对中国而言至关重要的时刻。中国正在应对经济增长下滑，还遭受了金融市场大跌。但是，IMF董事会日的投票也会面临其他质疑：IM

4、F到底在多大程度上被迫变通自己的规则以支持纳入人民币，并在该组织与中国的关系敏感之际照顾中国？ “他们在勉强应用自己的标准，”美国财政部前官员、目前任职于华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所的资深IMF关注者埃德温·杜鲁门表示。IMF中国部前负责人埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示，如果IMF的审议被应用于其他任何货币，那就很可能不会提出将该货币纳入SDR货币篮子。进入SDR货币篮子在很大程度上只具有象征意义，但成员资格通常仅限于那些被各国央行当作外汇储备普遍持有的易于交易的主要货币。“很明显，（IMF官员及其管理层）愿意不打破规则，而是作出变通，”普拉萨德说。“鉴于IMF那么需要中国，他们没

5、有太多选择。”由于中国已成为世界最大经济体（以购买力平价衡量），IMF如果不给予中国一个领导性角色，就容易面临缺乏全球合法性的指责。多名驻北京的西方外交官表示，把人民币纳入SDR货币篮子在很大程度上是一个政治决定，中国政府在游说各国支持人民币被纳入方面非常有效无论人民币是否达到要求。然而，IMF管理层坚称，对于纳入人民币的审议是一个纯粹的“技术性”问题，焦点是人民币是否可被用于IMF与其成员国的交易的实际问题。“这里不存在政治因素，”IMF一名高级官员表示。本月早些时候，IMF工作人员在提交给IMF董事会的一份报告中建议，在年一次的定期审议时，给予人民币与美元、欧元、英镑和日元相同的地位，将其

6、纳入SDR货币篮子。IMF工作人员的结论取决于人民币满足了两条标准。第一，中国和人民币在全球贸易中具有重要影响，中国在多年前就跨过了这个门槛。第二，人民币被广泛使用，而且在国际上“可自由使用”。人民币纳入SDR不止具有象征意义2015-11-25Back in 2009 the west was desperately seeking green shoots of recovery and paid little attention when Zhou Xiaochuan called for nothing less than a new world financial order.200

7、9年时，西方国家只顾竭力寻找复苏苗头，却未在意周小川发出的、无异于建构世界金融新秩序的呼吁。Chinas central bank governor proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund. If, as expected, the IMF this month approves the inclusion of the renminbi as a reserv

8、e currency, it will mark a small step for Mr Zhous 2009 vision but a big move for the renminbi.中国央行行长当时提议，用国际货币基金组织(IMF)控制下的一个全球体系取代美元作为国际储备货币。如果不出所料，IMF本月将同意把人民币纳为储备货币，对周小川2009年提出的愿景来说，这将是向前迈出的一小步，但对人民币来说却是一个重大举措。The prospect of Chinas currency joining the dollar, euro, yen and sterling in backing

9、the IMFs Special Drawing Rights its unit of account, restricted to member governments has been described as everything from a symbolic ego trip on the part of Beijing to the dawning of a new era.人民币加入IMF特别提款权（SDR，即分配给会员国的记账单位）货币篮子目前包括美元、欧元、日元及英镑的前景得到各种各样的解读：从北京方面得到象征性的自我满足，到一个新时代的开启。In all probabili

10、ty it will be like many Chinese financial reforms: significant in hindsight, but hard to get excited about in the short term.几乎可以肯定，这将会像中国的许多金融改革一样：虽然事后看来意义重大，但短期内很难激起热情。Market enthusiasm for early-stage reforms such as de-pegging the renminbi 10 years ago has given way to ennui as the changes get s

11、maller and China gets bigger. The result is often disappointment in the numbers as China maintains an antipathy to the sweeping changes, accompanied by headline-grabbing figures, beloved of newly installed western executives and politicians.市场对早期改革（如十年前人民币与美元脱钩）的热情已让位于怠倦情绪，因为中国的体量越来越大、改革的步伐却越来越小。结果就

12、是在数字方面往往令人失望，因为中国始终不愿进行全面的改革。Even the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, a year old this week, was shrugged aside by many, because the absolute numbers involved are relatively small. However, its real significance lies in the fact that it was the first scheme under which foreign investors had been al

13、lowed in “blind” without requiring individual approval.即便是实施一年之久的“沪港通”，在许多人看来也不是什么值得大书特书的举措，因为与之相关的绝对数字较小。然而，沪港通的真正意义在于，它是首个允许境外投资者直接购买在中国内地上市的公司股票的机制（不需要一个个审批）。SDR inclusion risks being categorised the same way. That would miss the point. It is not about boosting short-term demand from central bank

14、s for renminbi. Rather it is about embedding the currency in the international system and committing Beijing to financial reform.人民币纳入SDR也有可能被这种不值得大书特书的举措。这就没有抓住问题的关键。人民币纳入SDR的重点不是为了提升各国央行对人民币的短期需求，而是为了将人民币融入国际体系，促使北京方面推行金融改革。If China were to constitute up to 10 per cent of the SDR basket, reserve m

15、anagers would need to buy just $28bn of its currency not a particularly meaningful number compared with the $20bn traded daily in the onshore spot market.如果人民币占到SDR货币篮子10%的份额，储备管理机构将只需购买价值280亿美元的人民币相对于在岸即期市场每天200亿美元的交易量，这并非一个特别可观的数字。人民币对市场响应愈发积极2015-11-04Volatility is meat and drink for traders; it

16、gives finance directors indigestion. In China there will be more of it.波动性是交易员们的美餐，却会令财务总监们消化不良。在中国，你会面临越来越大的波动性。On Monday the Peoples Bank of China moved the renminbi trading band higher by half a per cent, after its market value rose sharply on Friday. Following the PBoC move traders decided to we

17、aken the currency a little.周一，中国央行把人民币汇率中间价调高了约0.5%此前在上周五，人民币的市场价值曾大幅上扬。中国央行出手之后，交易员们决定把人民币汇率压低一点。With the authorities a step behind the markets, the evidence is growing that Chinese assets are becoming more responsive to market demand, and less sensitive to policy. Mondays decision also shows that

18、devaluation is not Chinas ultimate goal. Beijing wants a more flexible currency to strengthen its bid for the renminbi to be included in the International Monetary Funds special drawing rights, a notional currency that member countries can exchange for hard currencies.由于当局对市场亦步亦趋，可以说有越来越明显的证据证明，中国资产

19、对市场需求的响应变得更积极，对政策变得不那么敏感。中国央行周一的决定还表明，贬值并非中国的最终目的。北京方面希望人民币汇率具备更大弹性，这样将有助于推动人民币被纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。SDR是一种名义货币，IMF成员国可用它来兑换硬通货。The IMF, which may decide on renminbi inclusion this month, says that to be eligible, a currency must be both widely used and freely tradable. Chinas renminbi is w

20、idely used: last month Swift said the renminbi had overtaken the yen to become the worlds fourth most used currency. And as Mondays move shows, it is becoming more responsive to the market.本月，IMF或许会决定把人民币纳入SDR货币篮子。IMF表示，一种货币必须满足广泛使用和可自由交易两个条件，才够格被纳入。目前，人民币已得到广泛的使用：上月环球银行金融电信协会(Swift)表示，人民币已超过日元成为全球第

21、四大支付货币。此外，正如周一的走势所表明的那样，人民币对市场的响应变得更积极。Inclusion in the SDR basket might strengthen demand for the renminbi as a reserve currency. This would be a relief to companies with high foreign exchange debt, including China Southern and Air China, which were hurt in August when China pushed the renminbi ban

22、d down 1.9 per cent in one day.被纳入SDR货币篮子，或许会提高人民币作为储备货币的需求量。这会让那些背负高额外债的企业包括中国南航(China Southern)和中国国航(Air China)松一口气。今年8月，中国央行在一日内把人民币汇率中间价调低了1.9%，曾令这类企业受到冲击。Yet any upward pressure on the renminbi is likely to be shortlived. Chinas economy is still slowing, and capital outflows have been rising. H

23、SBC thinks SDR-related inflows if they happen will be too slow to make a significant impact. Relief to those companies with mismatched currency exposure will thus be similarly brief.不过，人民币的上行压力很可能不会持久。中国经济仍在放缓，资本外流一直在增加。汇丰(HSBC)认为，与SDR相关的资本流入如果发生的话将会很慢，不足以产生重大影响。因此，那些存在错配外汇敞口的企业所感受到的轻松也会同样短暂。But bet

24、ting on a sustained move either way in the renminbi looks unwise. As markets start to lead policy, rather than vice versa, plan for a bumpier ride.但是，押注人民币持续单边上涨或单边下跌似乎都是不明智的。随着市场开始引领政策、而不是相反，请大家为更颠簸的行程做好准备。人民币成为全球储备货币的日期延后2015-08-21The International Monetary Fund has decided that Chinas currency wi

25、ll not be included in a basket of reserve currencies for at least a year, delaying a move some had expected to take place as soon as January even as it took pains to stress the decision was largely procedural.国际货币基金组织(IMF)已决定，至少在一年内，人民币不会被纳入其储备货币篮子，尽管它竭力强调这一决定在很大程度上是出于程序上的原因。有些人曾预期IMF最早在明年1月就会把人民币纳入

26、储备货币篮子，IMF的上述决定让这一天的到来向后推迟了。The IMF is due to decide by the end of the year whether to include the renminbi in its so-called special drawing rights, the elite group of currencies it uses to determine the value of its own de facto currency.IMF定于在今年底决定是否将人民币纳入所谓的特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。这个篮子由多种最重要的货币组成，IMF用它来确定

27、其事实上的货币的价值。The decision depends on the IMF determining just how “freely usable” the tightly controlled Chinese currency has become. The push for inclusion has been driving a series of reforms by Beijing, which is keen to see the renminbi labelled a reserve currency alongside the dollar, euro, yen an

28、d sterling.该决定的结果，依赖于IMF对人民币“可自由使用”程度的认定。目前，人民币仍是一种受到严格管控的货币，而中国政府急于看到人民币贴上“储备货币”的标签（就像美元、欧元、日元及英镑那样）。为了推动将人民币纳入这个篮子，中国政府已开展了一系列改革。The bid for SDR inclusion is also among the factors cited by observers as being behind last weeks move by the Peoples Bank of China to allow a greater role for markets i

29、n setting the daily trading band for the renminbi, which prompted the two biggest daily swings in the currency since the 1990s.此外，观察人士指出，上周中国央行允许市场在设定人民币汇率的过程中发挥更大作用，背后的动机之一也是要推动将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子。中国央行上周的举措导致人民币汇率出现了自上世纪90年代以来的两个最大单日跌幅。But the IMF said on Wednesday its board had decided that if it opts l

30、ater this year to include the renminbi in the SDR basket, the move will not take formal effect until September 2016.但IMF却在周三表示，其执行董事会已经决定，即便该机构今年晚些时候选择将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子，也要到2016年9月才会生效。This potentially gives China more time to enact reforms, although most if not all would have to be in place before the I

31、MF board makes its decision, which is expected in November.这可能会让中国有更多时间来实施改革，尽管多数（如果不是全部）改革举措在IMF执行董事会做出纳入不纳入的决定前就得到位。这一决定预计会在今年11月做出。The extended timeframe also signals the monumental complexity of adding a currency to the IMFs reserve basket, a manoeuvre last carried out at the birth of the euro i

32、n 1999.这一时间表的延长也表明，IMF将一种货币纳入其储备货币篮子的过程极为复杂。IMF上次展开类似调整，是在1999年欧元诞生的时候。The decision, the IMF said, was based on a staff recommendation made in a report last month and in response to requests from “SDR users” other member countries that receive IMF loans for a “sufficient lead time to adjust” to the

33、new currency basket.IMF表示，做出这一决定，一方面是基于IMF工作人员在上月一份报告里提出的建议，一方面是为了回应“SDR用户”（指接受IMF贷款的其他成员国）的要求。这些SDR用户要求“留出足够的时间来适应”新货币篮子。The IMF said the decision had in effect been taken on August 11, during the boards annual summer break, because the time for objections had lapsed. It had not been announced befo

34、re Wednesday because IMF rules give staff seven days to prepare announcements, the IMF said.最重要的是，IMF表示：“批准延长现货币篮子的使用期，无论从哪方面来说，都不构成对（SDR评估）结果的预判。预计执行董事会将在今年晚些时候就评估展开正式讨论。”人民币有望加入国际货币基金组织的货币篮日期:2015-06-01 16:14Yuan may be part of SDR人民币有望入IMF货币篮The Group of Seven countries are in fundamental agreeme

35、nt that the Chinese yuan should be part of the IMF's international basket of reference currencies, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.德国财长朔伊布勒近日表示，七国集团已达成初步协议，同意人民币加入国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一篮子参考货币。The IMF began holding meetings this month to review the status of the Chinese currency and disc

36、uss whether it could be added to the special drawing rights basket. Results will be available by December.IMF本月开启的一系列会议旨在评估人民币的地位，同时讨论人民币加入"特别提款权"篮子的可能性，讨论结果将于12月出炉。The basket currently includes the US dollar, euro, British pound and Japanese yen.目前的一篮子货币包括美元、欧元、英镑和日元。The yuan became the w

37、orld's fifth-largest payment currency in December, passing the Canadian and Australian dollars.去年12月，人民币超过加元和澳元，成为全球第五大支付货币。人民币时代迅速临近日期:2015-05-08 14:39 Come June, the International Monetary Fund will probably decide to include the Chinese renminbi in its special drawing rights (SDR).6月将至，国际货币基金

38、组织(IMF)很可能将决定把人民币纳入其特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。Though the move is largely symbolic, the symbolism is huge. It is another acknowledgment of Chinas growing stature in the global economy and financial markets. It is also a marker underscoring how swiftly China is moving to dismantle capital controls, in line with

39、the reform policies of the Peoples Bank of China.尽管此举主要是象征性的，但象征的意义却很大。这是对中国在全球经济和金融市场中地位不断上升的再次认可。这也是一种标志，突显出中国正多么迅速地按照中国央行的改革政策，采取措施解除资本管制。That in turn has implications for investors. It will mean China could soon assume an even larger weight in crucial global financial markets. For example, today

40、, China is a mere 2.5 per cent of the MSCI All Country World Index, based on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. But, when the powers that be decide the currency is convertible enough, onshore Chinese shares could be included in the index, which means its share of the index could rise to more tha

41、n 10 per cent, according to Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset Management.这进而会对投资者产生影响。此举将意味着，不久之后中国可能会在关键的全球金融市场中占据越来越大的权重。举例来说，目前中国在摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI All-Country World Index)中的权重仅为2.5%，这个数字是基于在香港上市的H股得出的。但是，当权威人士认定人民币可兑换性已足够强时，A股可能会被纳入该指数。摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的迈克尔琴巴莱斯特(Michael Ce

42、mbalest)表示，这意味着中国在该指数中所占权重可能会升至10%以上。Today, the renminbi is most visible as the currency in which a growing portion of Chinese trade is denominated. Chinese companies often offer more attractive prices and financing to counterparts that will trade in renminbi, thereby eliminating their own foreign e

43、xchange risk.如今，随着中国对外贸易中以人民币计价的比例越来越高，人民币已成为最常用的支付货币之一。中国企业经常向贸易对象提供更具吸引力的价格和融资、换取对方采用人民币结算，从而消除自身的汇率风险。More importantly, the renminbi is also growing in stature as an investable currency. Today, Mr Cembalest adds, central banks and sovereign wealth funds have invested between Rmb300bn and Rmb400bn

44、 in renminbi-denominated assets. While most of these are in Asia, the European Central Bank has also said it is considering investing in such assets.更重要的是，人民币作为可投资货币的地位也在上升。琴巴莱斯特补充称，如今，各国央行和主权财富基金投资的人民币计价资产在3000亿至4000亿元人民币之间。这些机构大多来自亚洲，不过，欧洲央行(ECB)也表示正考虑投资人民币资产。Moreover, Japanese central bankers say

45、 they are considering agreements whereby the Bank of Japan and the PBoC would expand investing in each others government bond markets (assuming the forthcoming anniversary of the end of the second world war does not lead to a new outbreak of hostilities between the two countries). The two central ba

46、nks are also considering resuming swap lines. China already has almost Rmb10tn of such arrangements with 30 central banks.此外，日本央行(BoJ)官员表示，他们正考虑与中国央行达成协议，扩大对彼此国债的投资（前提是即将到来的二战结束周年纪念活动不导致两国之间爆发新的对抗）。这两国的央行还在考虑恢复货币互换。中国已与30家央行达成了规模近10万亿元人民币的货币互换协议。Meanwhile, Chinas young asset management groups and se

47、curities firms are designing ever more products in local currency both onshore and offshore, where Rmb 2tn in deposits sits, most of them in Hong Kong.同时，中国年轻的资产管理集团和券商正在设计更多以本币计价的在岸和离岸产品。离岸人民币存款规模达2万亿元人民币，其中大多数位于香港。China does not have to remove all controls on its currency, particularly rules on po

48、rtfolio investment flows, for it to qualify for inclusion in the IMF basket. Even today, only four items out of 40, or less than 15 per cent of the capital account, have restrictions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC in Hong Kong. After all, even Singapore and Hong Kong retain

49、 some constraints on their currencies. The Chinese governments willingness to remove restrictions on the renminbi comes in the face of widespread fears, especially outside China, of slowing economic growth on the mainland and of a possible debt crisis, given the fact that debt in China has grown by 70 per cent since the global financial crisis in 2008.取消对人民币的一切管制、特别是针对证券投资流动的规定，并非人民币够格被纳入IMF货币篮子的必要条件。驻香港的汇丰(HSBC)首席中国经济学家屈宏斌表示，即便是现在，人民币资本项目40个子项中也只有4个（也就是不到15%）不可兑换。毕竟，就连新加坡和香港也对自己的货币保留了部分限制。在人们、尤其是中国以外的人们对中国内地经济增长放缓和可能爆发的债务危机（2008年全球金融危机以来中国的债务增加了70%）普遍感到担忧之际，中国政府还是展现出了解除人民币管制的意愿。The combina