计量经济学与中国问题的研究

1、精选课件计量经济学与中国问题的研究 精选课件怎样做经济研究n提出一个研究问题n一个有效的识别策略n适合的数据精选课件两个球同时落地n怎样去证实？n2个铁球n1 铁球 和 1 气球n物理学家不需要去做回归精选课件读书越多，赚钱越多n问题n这是事实吗？n怎样证实呢？n如果我们证实（没有证实），你能为你的下一代做些什么呢？n我们对政府提出哪些建议呢？n关于这个陈述，有其他情况呢？n我们能做实验吗？n经济学者是非常不幸的：我们常常需要借助回归。精选课件经济学是： 讲故事看图说话精选课件计量经济学: 经济学者的一个分析工具n为什么我们需要计量经济学n研究经济变量间的关系n这个关系通常来自于一个经济模型n

2、这个关系可能是复杂的n怎样去使用计量经济学？n做回归精选课件经济变量间的关系: 例1n香港报纸上的一则消息: 婚姻有助于男人收入水平的提高而不利于女人收入水平的提高n证据n婚后: 男人比女人挣更多的钱n未婚: 女人比男人挣更多的钱精选课件经济变量间的关系: 例2n研究目标: 私有制优于公有制吗？n证据: 私有企业的利润率高于公有企业精选课件怎样研究：一个例子n选好题n经济学问题n中国问题n识别因果关系n举1个研究实例精选课件Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth? Review of Economics and Statistics 2007精选课

3、件马尔萨斯的争论nTheoretical debatenMalthusian school: population hampers growth due to limited resourcesnBoserupian school: population is good, or at least neutralnScale effect, endogenous technological progressn Empirical testsnGo either way (negative, or non-negative)no definite conclusion (Kelley, 1988;

4、 Temple, 1999)精选课件试图建立一个因果关系nPopulation growth/birth rate in a growth regression is endogenousnSimultaneitynIncome has a negative effect on fertility: quantity-quality tradeoff (Becker and Lewis, 1973; Barro and Becker, 1989; Wang et al., 1994)nIncome raises the real wage of women and leads to lower

5、 fertility (Galor and Weil, 1992)nOmitted variable biasnHard to control all variables or come up with an IV using cross-country data (Mankiw et al., 1992)精选课件需要做的工作nEstablish causality by using Chinas unique population control policy as an instrumentnUnderstand how much Chinas one-child policy has c

6、ontributed to growth since 1978nEvaluate the effect of the one-child policy精选课件中国的生育政策nNational policiesnThe one-child policynThe affirmative policy: minorities are allowed to have two or more childrennCommunity policiesnNeed birth permitsnFor above-quota birthsnFines, no public school and other ben

7、efitsnGovernment officials be demotednProviding birth control facilities精选课件实证检验nGrowth = a + b*BR + x*c + enBR: birth ratenx: other determinants of growthnBR is endogenousnReverse causalitynOmitted variables精选课件识别策略nUsing % of minority population in a province as IV for BRnIt is highly correlated w

8、ith birth ratenIt should not be correlated with growth if other determinants of growth are controlled for精选课件数据nProvincial-level data for the period 1978-1998nDivide into four 5-year intervals: so, it is a panel of 4 periods nData sources: various statistical yearbooks精选课件一个计量经济学的问题nWhen we do the f

9、ixed effects estimations, we will introduce serial correlation because the lagged dependent variable will be on the RHS of the growth equation 精选课件计量经济学方法: GMMnThe GMM method developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), first used in growth regressions by Caselli et al. (1996)nCan deal with the issue of l

10、agged dependent variable, allowing additional IVs for BRnStepsnTake first difference to eliminate the fixed effectsnApply the IV estimations to the first differencesnTwo ways: DIF or SYS精选课件结果: 第一部分nGMM does not really have a first stage regression, but we do examine whether our main IV is goodnIn t

11、he first differenced BR equation, the proportion of minority population is highly correlated with BR精选课件GMM 结果nHigh birth rates hamper economic growthnThe result is robust when we control for other determinants of growthnThe contribution of the one-child-policy in Chinas growthnRaises growth by 1 percentage point a yearnRaise the steady stage real per capita GDP level by 14.3 percentage points精选课件结论nWe use Chinas unique po