世界核工业的发展的现状及趋势

1、The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009With Particular Emphasis on Economic IssuesByMycle SchneiderIndependent Consultant, Mycle Schneider Consulting, Paris (France)Project CoordinatorSteve ThomasProfessor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University (UK)Antony FroggattIndependent Consultant, Londo

2、n (UK)Doug KoplowDirector of Earth Track, Cambridge (USA)Modeling and Additional Graphic Design Julie HazemannDirector of EnerWebWatch, Paris (France)Paris, August 2009Commissioned byGerman Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety(Contract n UM0901290) ?About? the ? Au

3、thors ? Mycle Schneider is an independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy based in Paris. He founded the Energy Information Agency WISE-Paris in 1983 and directed it until 2003. Since 1997 he has provided information and consulting services to the Belgian Energy Minister, the F

4、rench and German Environment Ministries, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Greenpeace, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the Worldwide Fund for Nature, the European Commission, the European Parliaments Scientific and Technological Option Assessment Panel and its G

5、eneral Directorate for Research, the Oxford Research Group, and the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety. Since 2004 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies lecture series for the International MSc in Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engi

6、neering Program at the French Ecole des Mines in Nantes. In 1997, along with Japans Jinzaburo Takagi, he received the Right Livelihood Award, also known as the aAlternative Nobel Prize .Antony Froggatt works as independent European energy consultant based in London.Since 1997 Antony has worked as a

7、freelance researcher and writer on energy and nuclear policy issues in the EU and neighboring states. He has worked extensively on EU energy issues for European Governments, the European Commission and Parliament, environmental NGOs, commercial bodies and media. He has given evidence to inquiries an

8、d hearings in the Parliaments of Austria, Germany and the EU. He is a part time senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of International AffairsChatham House in London.Mr. Froggatt works intensively with environmental groups across Europe, particularly on energy markets and policy and helped t

9、o establish a network on energy efficiency. He is a regular speaker at conferences, universities and training programs across the region.Prior to working freelance Antony worked for nine years as a nuclear campaigner and cocoordinator for Greenpeace International.Steve Thomas is Professor for energy

10、 policy at the Public Services International Research Unit (PSIRU), University of Greenwich, where he has been senior researcher since 2001.Mr. Thomas holds a BSc (honors) degree in Chemistry from Bristol University and has been working in energy policy analysis since 1976. His main research interes

11、ts are reforms of energy industries, economics and policy towards nuclear power, and corporate policies of energy industry companies. Recent clients include Public Services International, the European Federation of Public Service Unions, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (USA), Energywatc

12、h (UK) and Greenpeace International.Doug Koplow founded Earth Track in 1999 to more effectively integrate information on energy subsidies. For the past 20 years, Mr. Koplow has written extensively on natural resource subsidies for organizations such as the Global Subsidies Initiative, the National C

13、ommission on Energy Policy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Greenpeace, the Alliance to Save Energy, and the US Environmental Protection Agency. He has analyzed numerous government programs and made important developments in

14、 subsidy valuation techniques.Mr. Koplow holds an MBA from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration and a BA in economics from Wesleyan University.Contacts ? ?Mycle SchneiderPhone: +33-1-69 83 23 79Email: HYPERLINK mailto:mycleorange.fr mycleorange.frAntony FroggattPh: +44-20-79 23 04

15、12E: HYPERLINK mailto:a.froggatt a.froggattSteve ThomasDoug KoplowPh: +44-208 331 9056Ph: +1-617-661 4700E: HYPERLINK mailto:stephen.thomasgreenwich.ac.uk stephen.thomasgreenwich.ac.uk E: ? HYPERLINK mailto:dkoplow dkoplowM.? Schneider, ? S.? Thomas,? A.? Froggatt, ? D.? Koplow? ? World? Nuclear ? ?

16、 Industry ? Status ? Report ? 2009?2?.1. ?Introduction401.? Problems ? of ? estimating ? and? comparing ? nuclearcosts 41III.1.2.plants .? Generation ? III+ ?Contents ?Exe.c.u.t.i.v.e ? S.u.m.m.a.r.y.?. a4n2d?IC. o?nIIcI.l2u.sions? T.h.e.?D.e.t.e.r.m i.n.a.n.t.s? o.f.?N.u.c.l.e.a.r.?5?IntrIEoI.toiom

17、?ni.cO.s.v e r.v.i.e w?o f ?O p e r.a t.i.o n ,?P o w e r.?G e n e.4.r.4a.t.i.o.n.,? Age?ID.I.I.i.s.3.t.r.i.b.u.t.?i.o.n.F.i.xed?.8. 8ICI.o2s. ts.?I.n.t.e.r.n.a.t.i.o.n.a.l?N.u.c.l.e.a.r.?E.x.p.a.n.s.io.n?.S.c.e.n.a.r.i.o.s.4512 ?II.I3II.3.1?. Overv?iewCo?nsotrfu?ctioCnurre?nt ? cNoeswts-.b.u.i.l.dI

18、II?E.1c.4o.n.o.m.i.c.?.?.45AnaIIl.yI4sI.Ii.s3 2?O.v.e.r.v.?.i.e.wO.p.?e.r.ao.tf.i.n?.g.P.?o.t.e.n.t.i.a.l?N.e.w.c.o.m.e.r.?.cC.o.o.s.u.t.sn.t.r.i.es.40.?2.1.I.I.5?S.t.a.t.u.s?a.n.d.?T.re6n1ds ?in ? Nuclear ?Manufac?turing?CaIIpI.a3c.3it.ies ?D.e.c.o.m.m.i.s.s.i.o.n.in.g?27IcIo.6s.ts .?S.t.a.t.u.s?a.

19、n.d.?T.r.e.n.d.s.?i.n.?N.u.c.l.e.a.r.?.C.o.m.p.e.t.e.n.c.e6.3?304.?Lifetime63? Implications ? for ? Existing ? and? Future ?Reactors 64? Existing ?reactors 65? Reactors ? under ?construction65? Reactors ? on? which ? construction ? has?stopped 66? Future ?orders 66? Nuclear ? Liability ?Issues67? Th

20、e? Subsidy ?Issue70III.6.1.? Overview ? of ? subsidies ? to ? nuclear ?Annex? 1: ? Status ? of ? Nuclear ? Power? in ? the ? World ? (1 st ? August ?energy 702009) 114?AnneIxII?.62.2: .? Nucle?arC?omRmeaoc?ntorfsor?msin? othfe?suWpoproldrt? ?“Uanroduenrd? ?Cotnhsetr?uction ” ? (1 st? August ?2A0n0nw

21、9eo)xr.?l.d.3.:?Pot.ent.i.a1.l.1.5.?.N.u.c.l.e.a.r.?.N.e.?w.c.o.m.e.r?C.o.u.n.tr7ie1s, ? Research? Reactors ? and? Grid ?Size I.I.I.631?17Subsidies ?to ? existing ? reactors ? in ? the ?AnnUeSxA?.4.:.?.T.i.m.e.t.a.b.l.e?o.f.?E.v.e.n.t.s.?a.t.?.76?O1l1k8iluI?oIIt.o6-.34?S.u.b.s.i.d.i.e.s?t.o.?t.h.e.?

22、U.K.s?E.xisting? Nuclear ? Power?.? Plants 81III.6.5.? The?Future 88.1. ?Africa 88V.2. ?Americas89? D.? Koplow? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? World? Nuclear3?M.?IVSc3hne?ider, ? S.? Thomas,? A.? Froggatt, ? Indu. s.try ? Status ? Report ? 2009?AsiaNote ?The? authors ? wish ? to ? thank ? Amory?

23、B. ? Lovins, ? Chairman ? of ? the ? Rocky? Mountain ?Institute, ? USA,? for ?his ? extremely ? useful ? comments? on? a? draft ? version ? of ? the ? report. ? Thanks ? also ? to ?Mary? B. ? Davis ? for ? her ? careful ? proofreading. remains ? with ? the ? authors. ?The? project ? coordinator for

24、? their ?invaluable ? contributions? However, ? wishes ? to ? and? creativethe ? responsibility ? for ? any ? remaining ? errors ?express ? his ? sincere ? gratitude ? to ? his ? co-authors ? thinking. ?The? report ? represents necessarily ?reflect ? the ? opinion ? the ? perspective ? and? opinion

25、? of ? the ? contractor ? and? does ? not ?of ? the ? orderer ? (German? Federal ? Ministry ? for ? Environment, ? NatureExecutive Summary and ConclusionsThe future of the nuclear energy industry is subject to a large number of media reports, study projects, expert meetings and political debates. Mu

26、ch of the published data is based on speculation rather than on an in-depth analysis of nuclear energys industrial history, current operating status and trends.The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 provides the reader with the basic quantitative and qualitative facts on the nuclear power pla

27、nts in operation, under construction and in planning phases throughout the world. A detailed overview assesses the economic performance of past and current nuclear projects.As of 1 st August 2009 there are 435 nuclear reactors operating in the world, nine less than in 2002. There are 52 units listed

28、 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as“under construction” . At the peak of the nuclear industrys growth phase in 1979 therewere 233 reactors being built concurrently. Even at the end of 1987, there were still 120 reactors in process. Much has changed. For the first time since commerci

29、al use of nuclear energy began in the middle of the 1950s no new nuclear plant was connected to the grid in 2008. In fact, no start-up has been reported for the past two years, since Cernavoda-2 was connected to the grid on 7 August 2007, after 24 years of construction.In 1989 a total of 177 nuclear

30、 reactors had been operated in what are now the 27 EU Member States, but as of 1 st August 2009 only 144 units were in operation. Today the worldwide operating reactors total 370,000 megawatts (370 GW), about 1,600 MW1 lessthan one year ago.In 2007 nuclear power plants generated about 2,600 TWh2 and

31、 provided 14% of theworlds electricity. After an unprecedented drop in electricity generation of 2% in 2007, nuclear power plants output lost another half percentage point in 2008. Nuclear power provided 5.5% of the commercial primary energy production and about 2% of the final energy in the world,

32、and has trended downwards for several years.Twenty-seven of the 31 countries operating nuclear power plants maintained (23) or decreased (4) their share of nuclear power within the electricity mix in 2008 relative to 2007. Four countries (Czech Republic, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia) increased their

33、 share.The average age of the operating nuclear power plants in the world is 25 years. Some nuclear utilities envisage reactor lifetimes of 40 years or more. Considering the fact that the average age of all 123 units that have already been closed is about 22 years, the doubling of the operational li

34、fetime seems rather optimistic. However, we have assumed an average lifetime of 40 years for all operating and in-construction reactors in our calculations of how many plants would be shut down year by year. The exercise makes possible an evaluation of the minimum number of plants that would have to

35、 come on-line over the next decades in order to maintain the same number of operating plants.In addition to the 52 units currently under construction3, 42 reactors (16,000 MW) 4 wouldhave to be planned, built and started up by 2015- one every month and a half - and anadditional 192 units (170,000 MW

36、) over the following 10-year period- one every 19 days.1?The eq?iv?le?t ?f an ?PR (European Pressurized Water Reactor), as under construction in Finland andFrance. ?Terawa?hojrs o? billion kWh.31n contrast to earlier scenarios, we have consider ed that all units currently listed by the IAEA as “unde

37、r construction will be connected to the grid by 2016.M.? Schneider, ? S.? Thomas,? A.? Froggatt, ? D.? Koplow? ? World? Nuclear ? ? ? ? Industry ? Status ? Report ? 2009?In a new“PLEX5 Scenario we have modeled the situation taking into account not only thestart-up of all units currently under constr

38、uction, but also the license renewal as of6. Even with license renewals, theAugust 2009 of 54 US and some other nuclear reactors number of units in operation would never again reach the historical peak of 444 in 2002. By 2015, the number of operating units in the world would be 10 short of the curre

39、nt level, though the installed capacity would increase by 9,600 MW. In the following decade an additional 174 reactors or about 152,000 MW would still have to be replaced to break even with the current nuclear fleet in the world.Even if Finland and France each builds a reactor or two, China goes for

40、 an additional 20 plants and Japan, Korea or Eastern Europe add a few units, the overall worldwide trend will most likely be downwards over the next two decades. With extremely long lead times of 10 years and more, it will be practically impossible to maintain, let alone increase the number of opera

41、ting nuclear power plants over the next 20 years. The one exception to this outcome would be if operating lifetimes could be substantially increased beyond 40 years on average; there is currently no basis for such an assumption.For practically all of the potential nuclear newcomers, it remains unlik

42、ely that fission power programs can be implemented any time soon within the required technical, political, economic framework. None of the potential new nuclear countries has proper nuclear regulations, an independent regulator, domestic maintenance capacity, and the skilled workforce in place to ru

43、n a nuclear plant. It might take at least 15 years to build up the necessary regulatory framework in countries that are starting from scratch.Furthermore, few countries have sufficient grid capacity to absorb the output of a large nuclear plant, an often-overlooked constraint. This means that the ec

44、onomic challenge to financing a nuclear plant would be exacerbated by the very large ancillary investments required in the distribution network.Countries with a grid size and quality that could apparently cope with a large nuclear plant in the short and medium term encounter an array of other signif

45、icant barriers. These include a hostile or passive government (Australia, Norway, Malaysia, Thailand);generally hostile public opinion (Italy, Turkey); international non-proliferation concerns (Egypt, Israel); major economic concerns (Poland); a hostile environment due to earthquake and volcanic ris

46、ks (Indonesia); and a lack of all necessary infrastructure (Venezuela). Many countries face several of these barriers at the same time.Lack of a trained workforce and massive loss of competence are probably the most difficult challenges for proponents of nuclear expansion to overcome. Even France, t

47、he country with perhaps the strongest base of civilian nuclear competence, is threatened by a severe shortage of skilled workers. Demographics are a big cause: a large number of baby-boomers are approaching retirement- about 40% of the nuclear staff of theworld s largest nuclear utility EDF by 2015.

48、 Currently, a maximum of 300 nuclear graduates are available for some 1,200 to 1,500 open positions. An additional difficulty stems from the fact that the number of nuclear graduates does not correspond at all to the availability of new recruits for the nuclear industry. In the USA for example only

49、about one quarter of the 2008 nuclear graduates planned to actually work in the industry or a?U?it? currently under co?struc?i。？ r?nge ?om 32 MW to 1600 MW, with an average of 880 MW, roughlythe?sam? a? the ?vera?e ca?a(?ty?of?)pera?ing units with 855 MW. While it seems impossible to maintain the?pe

50、ra?n? n?mbe? of nuclear reactors under these conditions until 2015, an additional sixteen 1,000 MW units would be sufficient to maintain the installed nominal capacity. All of these units would have to startconstruction over the coming year and all be completed in optimal construction times. This se

51、ems unlikely considering the past experience but not impossible.5Plant Life Extension6Plus authorized lifetime extensions in the Netherlands, Spain and the UK.M.? Schneider, ? S.? Thomas,? A.? Froggatt, ? D.? Koplow? ? World? Nuclear ? ? Industry ? Status ? Report ? 2009?nuclear utility. Many prefer

52、 either to continue their studies or to join the military or other government and business sectors.The situation is similar or worse in most of the other nuclear countries.At least in the short term, severe manufacturing bottlenecks (only one facility in the world, Japan Steel Works, can cast large

53、forgings for certain reactor pressure vessels) further hamper any practical nuclear revival.This report covers, in addition to the subjects in earlier editions, an economic analysis of past, present and likely future nuclear projects. While many industries experience declining costs as they move out

54、 their technological learning curve, the nuclear industry continues to face steadily increasing costs on existing construction and future cost estimates. The May 2009 nuclear investment cost estimate update by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) simply doubled an earlier estimate from $2

55、,000 to $4,000 overnight cost (excluding financing) per installed kilowatt.In fact reality has already bypassed projections. The flagship EPR project at Olkiluoto in Finland, managed by the largest nuclear builder in the world, AREVA NP, has turned into a financial fiasco. The project is more than t

56、hree years behind schedule and at least 55% over budget, reaching a total cost estimate of ?5 billion ($7 billion) or close to ?3,100 ($4,400) per kilowatt.There are numerous ways by which governments have organized or tolerated subsidies to nuclear power. They range from direct or guaranteed govern

57、ment loans to publicly funded research and development (R&D). Direct ownership of subsidized nuclear fuel chain facilities, government funded nuclear decommissioning and waste management, generous limited liability for accidents and the transfer of capital costs to ratepayers via stranded cost rules

58、 or special rate-basing allowances are all common in many countries.The current international economic crisis is exacerbating many of the problems that the proponents of the nuclear energy option are facing. At this point, there is as yet no obvious sign that the international nuclear industry could

59、 eventually turn the empirically evident decline into a promising future.? D.? Koplow? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? World? NuclearI. IntroductionThe future of the global nuclear industry is subject to extensive media speculation, industrial announcements and political debate. However, there see

60、ms to be a widening gap between the industrial reality with its current trends and the widespread perception of some sort of“ nuclearrenaissance ” . In September 2008, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a press release that perfectly 川ustrates the point:The IAEA has revised upwards