GrowthHistory宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布拉

1、CHAPTER 5The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect1Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.QuestionsWhat is modern economic growth?What was the post-1973 productivity slowdown?What were its causes?Is the productivity slowdown now over?Why are some nations so

2、(relatively) rich and other nations so (relatively) poor?2Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.QuestionsWhat policies can make economic growth faster?What are the prospects for successful and rapid economic development in tomorrows world?3Copyright 2002 by The McGraw

3、-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Looking Back into Deep TimeUp until 1500, there had been almost zero growth of output per workerAfter 1800, we see large sustained increases in worldwide standards of livingpopulation growth acceleratedoutput per capita grew4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill

4、 Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Table 5.1 - Economic Growth through Deep Time5Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.1 - World Population Growth since 10006Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Premodern Economic “Growth”Th

5、omas R. Malthusfirst academic professor of economicsintroduced the idea that increases in technology inevitably run into natural resource scarcityimplies that increases in technology lead to an increase in the size of the population but not to an increase in the standard of living7Copyright 2002 by

6、The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The End of theMalthusian AgeOver time, the rate of technological progress rose by 1500, it was sufficiently high so that natural resource scarcity could not surpass itsustained increases in the population and the productivity of labor followed8Copy

7、right 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The Demographic TransitionAs material standards of living rise far above subsistence, countries undergo a demographic transitionbirth rates risedeath rates fallbirth rates fall9Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rig

8、hts reserved.Figure 5.2 - Stylized Picture of the Demographic Transition10Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The Demographic TransitionIn the world today, not all countries have gone through their demographic transitionsNigeria, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Congo are pr

9、ojected to have population growth rates greater than 2% per year over the next generation11Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-201512Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.3

10、- Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-201513Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The Industrial RevolutionThe industrial revolution began the era of modern economic growthnew technological leaps revolutionized industries and generated major improvements in living

11、standardsGreat Britain was the center of the industrial revolutionEnglish became the worlds de facto second language14Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The Industrial RevolutionThe new technologies were not confined to Great Britainspread rapidly to western Europe

12、 and the United Statesspread less rapidly to southern and eastern Europe and Japan15Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.4 - Industrialized Areas of the World, 187016Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Long-Run Grow

13、th, 1800-1973Growth in the second half of the nineteenth century was faster than it had been in the first halfGrowth accelerated further in the early part of the twentieth centurya second wave of industrialization occurred from new inventions and innovations17Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Compan

14、ies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Growth slowed slightly during the Great Depression and World War II1.4 percent per year from 1929 to 1950Growth accelerated from 1950 to 197318Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.5 - U.S. Meas

15、ured Economic Growth: Real GDP per Worker 1995 Prices,1890-199519Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Many economists believe that official estimates of output per worker overstate inflation and understate real economic growth by 1

16、percent per yearnational income accountants have a hard time valuing the boost to productivity and standards of living generated by new inventions20Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Structural changes also occurredlarge drop in t

17、he proportion of the labor force working as farmers occurrednew methods of travel were developedlarge number of innovative technologies and business practices were adopted21Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973The U.S. became the wo

18、rlds leader (in terms of technology) during the twentieth century becausethe U.S. had an exceptional commitment to educationthe U.S. was the largest market in the worldthe U.S. was extraordinarily rich in natural resources22Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Americ

19、an Economic Growth Since 1973Between 1973 and 1995 measured output per worker grew at only 0.6 percent per yearThe other major industrial economies in western Europe, Japan and Canada also experienced a slowdown in productivity23Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.T

20、able 5.3 - The Magnitude of the Post-1973 Productivity Slowdown in the G-7 Economies24Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Economic Growth Since 1973Suggested causes of the productivity slowdown includeenvironmental protection measuresincreased problems of e

21、conomic measurementthe baby boom generationthe tripling of world oil prices in 1973The actual cause of the productivity slowdown remains a mystery25Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Economic Growth Since 1973Slower economic growth has made Americans feel

22、much less well off than they had expected that they would befor some workers, the post-1973 productivity slowdown has been accompanied by stagnant or declining real wagesincreased income inequality has also occurred26Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.6 -

23、Measured Real Mean Household Income, by Quintile27Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.American Economic Growth Since 1973Since 1995, productivity growth in the U.S. has accelerated to a pace of 2.1 percent per yearInvestment began rising in 1992business fixed invest

24、ment grew at almost three times the rate of GDPmuch of the additional investment has gone to purchase computers and related equipment28Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe industrial core of the world economy experienced a l

25、arge increase in its level of material productivity and living standards during the nineteenth and twentieth centuriesElsewhere the growth of productivity levels and living standards was slowerThe world has become a more and more unequal place29Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All r

26、ights reserved.Figure 5.7 - World Distribution of Income Today, Selected Countries30Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.7 - World Distribution of Income Today, Selected Countries31Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Modern

27、Economic Growth around the WorldThe U.S. has not been the fastest-growing economy in the worlda number of other countries at different levels of industrialization, development, and material productivity a century ago have now convergedtheir current levels of productivity, economic structures, and st

28、andards of living are very close to those of the U.S.32Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.8 - Convergence among the G-7 Economies: Output per Capita as a Shareof U.S. Level33Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Modern Econo

29、mic Growth around the WorldThe economies that have converged belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)group of countries that gave or received aid under the Marshall Plan to help rebuild or reconstruct after World War II34Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,

30、Inc. All rights reserved.Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe OECD countries adopted a common set of economic policieslarge private sectors free of government regulation of pricesinvestment with its direction determined by profit-seeking businesseslarge social insurance systems to redistribute

31、 incomegovernments committed to avoiding mass unemployment35Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe OECD countries ended up with mixed economiesmarkets direct the flow of resourcesgovernments stabilize the economy, provide soci

32、al-insurance safety nets, and encourage entrepreneurship and enterprise36Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Modern Economic Growth around the WorldAs the OECD countries became richer, they completed their demographic transitionsThe policy emphasis on free enterpris

33、e boosted investmentSteady-state capital-output ratios roseDiffusion of technology from the U.S. occurred37Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Modern Economic Growth around the WorldEconomic growth has not been limited to OECD countriessince World War II, several co

34、untries in east Asia have experienced stronger growth than has ever been seen anywhere in world historythese successful east Asian countries are somewhat similar to the OECD economies in terms of economic policy and structure38Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Mod

35、ern Economic Growth around the WorldMany countries have not been so fortunateCountries that have been ruled by communists in the twentieth century have remained poor39Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.9 - The Iron Curtain40Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hil

36、l Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Table 5.4 - The Iron Curtain: GDP-per-Capita Levels of Matched Pairs of Countries41Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Sources of DivergenceThe principal cause of the large variation in output per worker between countries today

37、are differences in their steady-state capital-output ratiosdifferences in the share of investment in national productdifference in labor force growth42Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Sources of DivergenceA second cause of the large variation in output per worker

38、 between countries today are differences in the level of educationthe efficiency of labor is highly correlated with the level of educationeducated workers can use modern technologies43Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 5.10 - GDP-per-Worker Levels and Averag

39、e Years of Schooling44Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Sources of DivergenceAn additional cause of the large variation in output per worker between countries today are differences in access to technologydifficult to measure45Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Comp

40、anies, Inc. All rights reserved.Cause and Effect,Effect and CauseHigh population growth and low output per worker go togetherrapid population growth reduces the steady-state capital-output ratiopoor countries have not undergone their demographic transition46Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companie

41、s, Inc. All rights reserved.Cause and Effect,Effect and CauseOther vicious circles can occurpoor countries will have a high relative price of capitalimplies that poor countries get less investment out of any given effort at savinggood education is harder to provide in poor countriesSetting the demog

42、raphic transition in motion will offset these problems47Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Hopes for ConvergenceThe context of economic “stagnation” and “failure” are relative termsnet national product in Argentina is about three times what it was in 1900net nation

43、al product in Norway is about nine times what it was in 1900The worlds industrial leaders provide a benchmark of how much better things could have been48Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Hopes for ConvergenceDifferences in productivity and living standards between

44、 national economies should be eroded over time due toworld trademigrationflows of capitaldeveloping countries entering the demographic transition49Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Policies for Saving, Investment, and EducationPolicies to boost saving includeensur

45、ing that savers get a reasonable rate of return on their savingsminimizing restrictions on entrepreneurshipkeeping inflation lowkeeping government deficits to a minimum50Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Policies for Saving, Investment, and EducationPolicies to bo

46、ost investment for a given level of savings includewelcoming money from foreign investorsallowing businesses to freely earn and spend foreign exchangereducing tariffs and quotassubsidizing investment and expansion by businesses that successfully compete in world markets51Copyright 2002 by The McGraw

47、-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Policies for Saving, Investment, and EducationPromoting universal access to education can provide two important benefitsa better-educated workforce is likely to be more productiveeducated women will likely pursue opportunities outside the homethe birth rate

48、will likely fallthe demographic transition will occur more quickly52Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Policies for Technological AdvanceTechnological progress has two componentsscienceresearch and developmentamounts to 3 percent of GDP in the U.S.53Copyright 2002

49、by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Policies for Technological AdvanceBusinesses conduct investments in research and development to increase profitResearch and development is a public goodother firms can copy itpatents limit the ability of other firms to do so54Copyright 2002 by T

50、he McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Policies for Technological AdvanceGovernments seeking to establish patent laws face a dilemmaif the patent laws are strong, much of the modern technology in the economy will be restricted in useif the patent laws are weak, profits that innovators an

51、d inventors can earn will be lowpace of technological improvement will slow55Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Will Governments Follow Good Policies?The broad experience of growth in developing countries (with the exception of east Asian and OECD countries) has be

52、en that governments often wont56Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Will Governments Follow Good Policies?Typical systems of regulation in developing countries have retarded development byembarking on “prestige” industrialization programs that keep resources from sh

53、ifting to activities in which the country had a long-run comparative advantage57Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Will Governments Follow Good Policies?inducing firms and entrepreneurs to devote their energies to seeking rents by lobbying governments, instead of s

54、eeking profits by lowering costscreating systems of regulation and project approval that have degenerated into extortion machines for manufacturing bribes for the bureaucrats58Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Will Governments Follow Good Policies?Neoliberalism de

55、scribes much of the recent thinking about the proper role of government in economic growththe government has a sphere of core competencies at which it is effectiveadministration of justice, maintenance of macroeconomic stability, provision of social insurance, some infrastructure developmentgovernme

56、nts should limit role to their core competencies59Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Chapter SummaryBack before the commercial revolution (before 1500 or so), economic was very slowpopulations grew at a glacial pacethere were no significant increases in standards of living for millennia before 1500humanity was caught in a Malthusian trap60Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Chapter Summar