二叠纪在等待产能

1、Global Research11 April 2019EquitiesUBS Evidence Lab Inside: RigsillowEnergyAmericasAs Permian Waits on Capacity; Bakken ImpressesUBS Evidence Lab Rig Model: Total Rig Count Down Despite Rising Crude Prices The average US rig count was down 3% in 1Q19. We attribute the decline in rig count to 1) the

2、 dramatic crude price decline in December 2018, 2) takeaway constraints out of the Permian, 3) E&P operators switching to full pad development, and 4) investors giving scrutiny for E&Ps to live within cash flows. We note rigs declined 30 rigs during the quarter while crude prices increased to $60/bb

3、l on 3/29 from $45/bbl on 12/28, while the Gas rig count was roughly flat and gas prices decreased to$2.73/MMBtu on 3/29 from $3.25/MMbtu on 12/28. Rigsillow identified EPD & WMB as those seeing growth around their assets. We continue to expect growth in 2Q19, following the strong macro support we i

4、dentified in our previous Rigsillow HYPERLINK /shared/d2VloUmvglhuUjc (click here) and EIA estimates, just at a slower rate: During 1Q calls, we will listen for commentary about potentially placing rigs back into service as Crude prices continued to track higher in 2Q19 and there is expected to be a

5、mple takeaway out of the Permian in 6-9 months which would coincide with volumes flowing from when rigs are put into service in 2Q19.Interesting Trends in Top Basins: The Williston and Marcellus1Q19 oil rig count in the Williston basin was up 7.1% (+4 rigs) and the only major oil producing basin to

6、see an increase QoQ (Permian, STACK/SCOOP, DJ, and Eagle Ford were all declining QoQ). With near term crude takeaway relieved (from DAPL expansion) combined with the existing crude-by-rail facilities, the Bakken continues to attract producer activity and was shielded from the declining rig count see

7、n across the rest of the US basins. We also flag rig count growth in the Marcellus. Despite regulator setbacks, the Northeast continues to drive higher natural gas production as the Mariner East systems ramp and we believe producers will keep switching from dry Utica to wet Marcellus in order to cap

8、ture NGLs.Closer Look at 2H19 Volume Guidance CommentariesBased on the UBS Evidence Lab geospatial Rig Model and our analysis EPD and WMB could provide positive guidance commentary during 1Q19 earnings. In our report from January, we highlighted that CEQP, OKE, and ENLC could provide the positive co

9、mmentary for 1H19. EPDs gathering relationships with top tier producers and assets in the core of the Permian likely insulated it despite declining rig counts in the Permian and across the US. In other regions, we will likely see muted volume guidance for 2H19 as producers likely are delaying drilli

10、ng until midstream infrastructure catches up.Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gershuni shneur.gershuni+1-212-713 3974Aga Zmigrodzka, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszka.zmigrodzka agnieszka.zmigrodzka+1-212-713 3014Brian Reynolds Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reyno

11、lds brian.reynolds+1-212-713 2563Michelle Kenel Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel michelle.kenel+1-212-713 4896Count by QuarterFigure 1: Analysis of Changes in 1Q19 Rig Count in Companies Footprint vs 4Q18 Gas ThroughputWeekly Average RigG&PTotal Rig Count AssetsMagnitudeCompany Name

12、Ticker RatingsPTExposure 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19* 1Q19 vs 1Q19 vs of Impact1Q184Q18Names Exposed Primarily to Oil Rigs ActivityEnterprise Products Partners LP EPD Buy$ 39.0016%68 130 133653Western Midstream PartnersWES Buy$ 44.0089%52 103 103500Energy Transfer Partners LPETBuy$ 27.0022%262 281 27816-3Crestwo

13、od Equity Partners LPCEQP Buy$ 43.0079%38797940-1Targa Resources CorpTRGP Buy$ 60.0068%315 358 35136-7Enable Midstream Partners LPENBL Buy$ 17.0064%101 10591-11-14EnLink Midstream LLCENLC Buy$ 14.0082%201 220 2065-14DCP Midstream LPDCP Buy$ 38.0062%309 350 32920-21ONEOK IncOKE Neutral $ 69.0025%101

14、117 1044-12Names Exposed Primarily to Gas Rigs ActivityTotal Rig1Q19 vs 1Q1895%95%6%105%11%-10%3%6%4%Count (%)1Q19 vs 4Q182%0%-1%-1%-2%-13%-6%-6%-11%4Q18Throughput (Bcf/d)5.03.312.51.04.91.91Q19 New Rigs to Throughput Ratio0.6x0.0 x-0.2x-0.7x-1.7x-3.1x-3.5x-4.3x-6.6xWilliams CosWMBBuy$ 39.0

15、059%443845061%17%7.50.9xMPLX LPMPLXBuy$ 37.0046%9311010815 -2 16% -2% 7.4-0.3xSource: UBS estimates, UBS Evidence Lab, Baker Hughes; Note: G&P Assets Exposure is based on G&P segment EBITDA/Margin/Operating profit exposure to total EBITDA/Margin/Operating profit; Rig Count Data till 3/31/2019; Rig c

16、ount is measured in the area within a 25-mile radius of each companys processing asset footprint (area-weighted) HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 24. UBS does and seeks t

17、o do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Conte

18、nts HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Which Names Will Likely Provide Positive Volume Commentary into 2H19?3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Location, Location, Location4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Oil Rig Count by Basin Closer Look at the Williston5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Who Will Benefit from Changes in Oil Rig Count

19、?6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Who Will Benefit from Changes in Gas Rig Count?7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Natural Gas Rig Count by Basin Closer Look at the Marcellus 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Regional Footprint Map: Processing Plants and Sedimentary Basins9Individual Company/Partnership Section10 HYPERLIN

20、K l _TOC_250012 Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP, Buy, $43)11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 DCP Midstream LP (DCP, Buy, $38)12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Enable Midstream Partners LP (ENBL, Buy, $17)13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 EnLink Midstream LLC (ENLC, Buy, $14)14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Enterprise Produc

21、ts Partners LP (EPD, Buy, $39)15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Energy Transfer LP (ET, Buy, $27)16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 MPLX LP (MPLX, Buy, $37)17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 ONEOK Inc (OKE, Buy, $69)18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Targa Resources Corp (TRGP, Buy, $60)19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Western Midstrea

22、m (WES, Buy, $44)20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Williams Cos (WMB, Buy, $39)21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Methodology Overview22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Definitions22Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gershuni shneur.gershuni+1-212-713 3974Aga Zmigrodzka, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:agn

23、ieszka.zmigrodzka agnieszka.zmigrodzka+1-212-713 3014Brian Reynolds Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reynolds brian.reynolds+1-212-713 2563Michelle Kenel Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel michelle.kenel+1-212-713 4896UBS Evidence Lab Inside: Rigsillow 11 April 2019 3Which Nam

24、es Will Likely Provide Positive Volume Commentary into 2H19?Key Takeaways: Overall, the rig count was down 7.1% QoQ or -77 rigs. Based on the analysis EPD could provide positive commentary during 1Q19 conference calls, while commentary on overall volumes through 2Q19/3Q19 from ENLC, DCP, and OKE wil

25、l likely be more muted. In our report from January HYPERLINK /shared/d2VloUmvglhuUjc (click here), we highlighted that CEQP, OKE, and ENLC could provide the positive commentary for 1H19. EPD saw the only positive increase from oil exposed names, likely due to its presence in the Permian and gatherin

26、g relationship with top tier producers (e.g. CVX). OKE and DCP saw the largest decreases for 1Q19, likely due to high exposure to declining rig counts in the MidCon and DJ, respectively. TRGP and CEQP continue to be near the top half, benefitting from significant presence in the Permian and Bakken.M

27、PLX and WMB are primarily exposed to gas rigs in the Northeast. For the same growth in gas throughput fewer gas rigs are needed vs crude rigs. Consequently, we analyzed them separately from names that are primarily exposed to oil rig activity. We note that the rig count growth in 1Q for MPLX was dow

28、n 2% QoQ (oil rigs down 8%, compared to gas rigs up2%). Gas rig count around WMBs plants decreased 2% QoQ, while overall growth was +17%, supported by +7 oil rigs in 1Q, likely from the addition of the WMB/KKR Ft. Lupton plant in the DJ. We highlight that gas rigs represent 21%/19%/10% of total rigs

29、 in ENBL/EPD/ET areas, respectively.Count by Quarterof Impact1Q184Q181Q184Q18(Bcf/d)RatioFigure 2: Analysis of Changes in 1Q19 Rig Count in Companies Footprint vs 4Q18 Gas ThroughputWeekly Average RigG&PTotal Rig Count Total Rig Count (%)4Q18AssetsMagnitudeCompany NameTicker RatingsPTExposure 1Q18 4

30、Q18 1Q19* 1Q19 vs 1Q19 vs 1Q19 vs1Q19 vsThroughputNames Exposed Primarily to Oil Rigs Activity1Q19 New Rigs to ThroughputEnterprise Products Partners LPEPDBuy$39.0016%6813013365395%2%5.00.6xWestern Midstream PartnersWESBuy$44.0089%5210310350095%0%3.30.0 xEnergy Transfer Partners LPETBuy$27.0022%2622

31、8127816-36%-1%12.5-0.2xCrestwood Equity Partners LPCEQPBuy$43.0079%38797940-1105%-1%1.0-0.7xTarga Resources CorpTRGPBuy$60.0068%31535835136-711%-2%4.1-1.7xEnable Midstream Partners LPENBLBuy$17.0064%10110591-11-14-10%-13%4.5-3.1xEnLink Midstream LLCENLCBuy$14.0082%2012202065-143%-6%4.0-3.5xDCP Midst

32、ream LPDCPBuy$38.0062%30935032920-216%-6%4.9-4.3xONEOK IncOKENeutral$69.0025%1011171044-124%-11%1.9-6.6xNames Exposed Primarily to Gas Rigs ActivityWilliams CosWMBBuy$39.0059%443845061%17%7.50.9xMPLX LPMPLXBuy$37.0046%9311010815 -216% -2%7.4-0.3xSource: UBS estimates, UBS Evidence Lab, Baker Hughes;

33、 Note: G&P Assets Exposure is based on G&P segment EBITDA/Margin/Operating profit exposure to total EBITDA/Margin/Operating profit; Rig Count Data till 3/31/2019; Rig count is measured in the area within a 25-mile radius of each companys processing asset footprint (area-weighted)In this section we a

34、nalyzed names under UBS midstream coverage with G&P exposure in an effort to answer the question which companies could provide positive commentary regarding volume guidance into 2H19 based on QOQ changes in 1Q19 rig count. We looked at QOQ change in 1Q19 rig count and 4Q18 gas throughput in order to

35、 determinate which companies will likely see volume impacts through 2H19 due to decreases in 1Q rig count. We used 1Q19 rig count growth and divided it by the latest reported gas throughput (4Q18) to see which names have the highest rigs/Bcfpd ratio. We believe that the names with the highest ratio

36、will have the highest potential for positive volume growth into 2H19.Location, Location, LocationThe total US rig count saw a sharp decline in rig count in 1Q19, falling 77 rigs after strong increases throughout 2018 (+64/54/7/29 in 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q). We attribute the decline in rigs to the December decl

37、ine in crude prices, takeaway constrains, operators moving to full pad development and investor demand for E&Ps to live within cash flows. Notably, the Permian (45% of all US rigs) was down 32 rigs QoQ at 454 rigs. Rig count in the major basins was mostly down with the only basins to see increases Q

38、oQ were the Williston (oil), Marcellus (gas), and Haynesville (gas). Other Rigs saw an 18% decline (- 39 rigs) in the quarter after being up 16% (+30 rigs) in 4Q18. According to Baker Hughes Rig Count data, the majority of Other rigs reside in OK, TX, LA, and WY.The MidCon continues to see declines

39、in rig count with the Cana Woodford down 16.9% QoQ (-10 rigs) and the Granite Wash down 27.3% (-3 rigs). We will continue to watch the rig count in the Permian to see if idled rigs in the basin are placed back into service once the additional capacity becomes available. That said, we note a +8 Permi

40、an rig increase in the 1st week of April.Crude prices declined on a QoQ basis during 1Q19, averaging $54.58/bbl compared to$59.36/bbl during 4Q18. However, prices saw a steady increase during 1Q after bottoming to $42 in December of 18 and were above $60/bbl in late March/early April. The EIA expect

41、s 1Q19 crude oil and natgas production to increase 3.7% and 3.0% QoQ, respectively. EIA reported February well completions up by 4% v. 4Q18 average, which should drive G&P higher volumes. In February DUC inventory increased by 4% v. 4Q18 average. Concurrently, DUC to completed well ratio increased i

42、n Dec/Jan to 6.9/7.0 vs. the 4Q18/3Q18 averages of 6.4./6.0 respectively as some producers slowed growth due to pipeline capacity tightness, specifically in the Permian. .Geospatial Model Powered by UBS Evidence LabUBS Evidence Lab created a geospatial model, UBS Evidence Lab Rig Model, to estimate

43、the rig count most relevant to each midstream operator, based on locations of their processing plants and the rig count in a 25-mile radius of that asset footprint. Please see page 22 for methodology overview. We highlight that not all the rigs in a 25-mile radiusare necessarily dedicated to a given

44、 plant; however, we believe that the high rig activity around a plant indicates the potential for future volume growth.Figure 3: Rig Count by CountySource: Baker Hughes, UBS, UBS Evidence LabOil Rig Count by Basin Closer Look at the WillistonThe map below highlights basins with highest oil rig count

45、: Permian 454 rigs, Eagle Ford 69 rigs, Williston 60 rigs, and Cana Woodford 49 rigs. 1Q19 oil rig count in the Williston basin was up 7.1% (+4 rigs) QoQ and the only major oil producing basin to see an increase QoQ. Permian was down 6.6% QoQ (-32 rigs), Cana Woodford down 16.9% (- 10 rigs), Eagle F

46、ord down 2.5% (-2 rigs), and DJ-Niobrara down 3.3% (-1 rig). EIA expects Bakken 1Q19 oil/natural gas production to increase 1.6%/6.1% QoQ. On CEQPs 4Q18 CC, management highlighted the value of Bakken assets citing TRGPs Badlands system sale at 15x EBITDA and CLRs expectations to grow Bakken oil prod

47、uction by 12.5% per year over the next five years. With near term crude takeaway relieved (from DAPL expansion) combined with the existing crude-by-rail facilities, the Bakken continues to attract producer activity and was shielded from the declining rig count seen across the rest of the US basins.

48、We believe this supports continued positiveFigure 5: Average Oil Rig Count in the Williston8052.255.754.855.056.845.748.549.137.3706050403020102017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q10sentiment around the basin. Notably, Elk Creek y-grade pipeline will come online in 4Q19 and will redu

49、ce flaring in the basin and increase natural gas/NGL volumes.Figure 4: 1Q19* Oil Rig Count by BasinSource: Baker Hughes, UBS Evidence Lab; Note: Rig count as of 3/31/2019In Figure 6, we highlight the top counties in the Williston by YoY rig count change.Figure 6: Top Counties in the Williston by Oil

50、 Rig Count Y/Y Changes22100000-1-1Williams, ND5Burke, ND Dunn, ND Billings, ND Bottineau, ND Divide, ND Fallon, MT Richland, MT Stark, ND Mckenzie, ND Roosevelt, MTMountrail, ND-2Source: Baker Hughes, UBS Evidence Lab ; Note: Rig count as of 3/31/2019Source: UBS Evidence Lab; Baker Hughes, Note: *1Q

51、19 weekly average through 3/31/2019Who Will Benefit from Changes in Oil Rig Count?The average 1Q19 oil rig count was 848, down QoQ from 878 in 4Q18, but up YoY from 781 rigs in 1Q18. We believe the rig count decline in 1Q19 is supportive of the lack of takeaway capacity out of the Permian until addi

52、tional pipelines are built. We also track oil rigs as associated gas is produced from oil wells and that gas requires processing to meet specifications of FERC-regulated residue gas pipelines. That said, we expect crude and natgas pipeline congestion from the Permian and NGL takeaway capacity constr

53、aints from the Permian and Mid-Con to continue to slow the pace of growth over the next 6-12 months until new takeaway capacity will come online in 2H19.The UBS Evidence Lab Rig Model indicates that the rig count for EPD, WES, CEQP and TRGPs footprints increased by 61, 49, 41 and 36 YoY, respectivel

54、y. All four companies (incl. TRGP) have a significant G&P presence in the Permian and we note that while rig count declined in 1Q in the Permian due to congestion, the Permian oil rig count still represents 45% of all US oil rigs at 454 rigs. WMB likely saw a benefit this quarter as its Fort Lupton

55、processing plant with KKR was placed into service in the DJ. We also note the spike in exposure to oil rigs for WMB can be attributed to the startup of this plant. Based on UBS Evidence Lab Model, rig count around TRGPs footprint decreased by 2% QoQ in 1Q19; however, we continue to believe TRGPs str

56、ong presence in the Permian should continue to provide a moat and look to see if TRGP can benefit if rig activity in the Permian picks back up. Notably, ENLC is likely to see an uptick in volumes into 1H19 as its Lobo III (Permian) plant ramps to capacity and its Thunderbird (MidCon) plant enters se

57、rvice in 2Q19. WES Mentone II processing plant in the core of the Delaware (Loving, TX) was slated to come online 1Q19 and the Latham I and Latham II processing plants in the DJ are slated to come online mid-19/4Q19 and end of 19, respectively, which should support WES expected volume ramps going fo

58、rward.While DCPs oil rig count growth slowed to 15 1Q from 47/48/54/70 in 4Q18/3Q18/2Q18/1Q18, DCP still has the 2nd highest footprint at 329 rigs. When compared with our last published refresh of the UBS Evidence Lab Rig Model, YoY growth slowed for TRGP, DCP, and ET for the third consecutive quart

59、er.Figure 7: Top 25 Processors: Oil Rig Count YoY Change as of March 31st, 2019Enterprise Products Partners L.P61Salt Creek Midstream55Summit Midstream54Western Gas Partners49WPX Energy46Crestwood Midstream41Apache Corp38Targa Resources363Bear Energy LLC24Lucid Energy Group21WTG Gas Processing, L.P.

60、20Energy Transfer Company19American Midstream Partners LP19MPLX18Midmar Gas, LLC15DCP Midstream15Vaquero Midstream14Stakeholder Midstream12Great Salt Plains Midstream11Taproot Energy Partners LLC10Brazos Delaware LLC10Anadarko Petroleum Corporation9EnLink Midstream9Oasis Midstream ServicesRimrock En