2022年世界经济形势与展望世界经济面临巨大阻力联合国研究报告

1、消费行业报告文档资料 tothereport. DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs undesaRebeca Grynspan, Secretary-GeneralUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment Palais de Nations,814 erland sgoVera Songwe, Executive Secretary AddisAbaba ecainfoOlga Algayerova, Executive SecretaryforPalais des Nations erland unece_

2、infoAlicia Brcena, Executive Secretary and the Caribbeancura Santiago,Chile secepalArmida Salsiah Alisjahbana, ExecutiveSecretaryEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaand the Pacific escap-scasRola Dashti, Executive SecretaryEconomicandSocialCommissionforWestern /contact Allrightsreserved消费行业报告文档资料 shre

3、ddedsafetynets,health-caresystemspushedtothebrink,andtheimpactsofachangingclimateare Morethanaquarterofdevelopingcountrieshaveyettoachievetheirpre-pandemiclevelsofoutput, limitingborrowingandconstrainingfiscalspaceatexactlythetimecountriesshouldbeinvestinginjobs, distress. calls for better targeted

4、and coordinated policy and financial measures at the national and international to reform the global financial system. This requires the full mobilization of governments, international Wemustactacrossawiderangeofchallengesfromaddressingillicitfinancialflows,toinjectingWe must also overhaul the inter

5、national debt architecture, so developing countries can access the jobsinthegreen,digitalandcareeconomies,andaccesstoCOVID-19vaccinesforall,sowecanputthe TheUnitedNationssystemstandsreadytoworkwitheverycountrytomakeourwaythroughthis anddeserves.消费行业报告文档资料.- orarenotseparatelyreported. ./ stated. , A

6、sset purchase programmeAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations Commonwealth of IndependentStates gross domestic productinformationandcommunicationstechnology Pandemic Emergency PurchaseProgramme StandardandPoors 消费行业报告文档资料The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 is a report produced by the United

7、Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), in partnership with the United Nations EconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE),EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandthe ( ( ZhenqianHuang.ThecoreteambenefitedfromtheresearchandanalyticalsupportfromAliBargu, ThereportwaseditedbyGretchenLuchsinger

8、,withgraphicdesignbyMackenzieCroneandcover 消费行业报告文档资料 andimprovednutritionandpromote sustainable agriculture well-beingforallatallages educationandpromotelifelonglearning opportunitiesforall empowerallwomenandgirls management of water and sanitation forallGoal7.Ensureaccesstoaffordable,reliable, sus

9、tainable and modern energy forallGoal8.Promotesustained,inclusiveand sustainableeconomicgrowth,fullandproductive employmentanddecentworkforall inclusive and sustainableindustrialization and fosterinnovation countries inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainableGoal12.Ensuresustainableconsumptionand pr

10、oduction patternsGoal13.Takeurgentactiontocombatclimate change and its impactsGoal14.Conserveandsustainablyusethe oceans, seas and marine resources for sustain- abledevelopmentGoal15.Protect,restoreandpromotesustainable useofterrestrialecosystems,sustainablymanage forests,combatdesertification,andha

11、ltand forsustainabledevelopment,provideaccessto 消费行业报告文档资料 GlobaleconomicrecoveryhingesonadelicatebalanceamidnewwavesofCOVID-19infections, persistentlabourmarketchallenges,lingeringsupply-chainconstraintsandrisinginflationary by4percentin2022and3.5percentin2023.Worldgrossproductin2021was1.9percenthi

12、gher than in 2019 but still3.3 per cent below thelevelof output projected prior to the pandemic.These slowedconsiderablybytheendof2021includinginbigeconomieslikeChina,theEuropeanUnion andtheUnitedStatesofAmerica,astheeffectsoffiscalandmonetarystimulidissipatedandmajor supply-chaindisruptionsemerged.

13、Growthimpetusgenerallyhasbeenweakerinmostdeveloping countries and economies in transition. While higher commodity prices have helped commodity- byatleast7percentin2023.InEastAsiaandSouthAsia,averagegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)in totrendoutputgrowthbeforethepandemic.Despitearobustrecovery,EastAsiaandSou

14、thAsias andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanareprojectedtoseegapsof5.5and4.2percent,respectively, compared to pre-pandemic projections. These persistent output gaps will exacerbate poverty and 消费行业报告文档资料 ofinfectionsspreadingquickly,thehumanandeconomictollsareexpectedtoincrease.Thegrowth outlook presented

15、 in this report therefore remains susceptible to an upsurge in cases and potential restrictionsoneconomicactivities.Limitedaccesstovaccinesposesaparticularchallengetomost 2021, the number of vaccine doses per 100 people in the least developed countries stood at just23.9against147.4inthedevelopedcoun

16、tries.Limitedsuppliesofvaccinesfrommanufacturersand morethan2percentagepointsaboveitstrendrateinthepast10years.Theinflationarypressurewas particularlypronouncedintheUnitedStates,theeuroareaandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.A faster-than-expectedtighteningofglobalmonetaryconditionsrepresentsanothermajor

17、challenge. Any unexpected shifts in the monetary policy stances of the Federal Reserve in the United States could abruptly change investor expectations and trigger large adjustments in portfolio allocations, Internationaltradeperformancewasmixedin2021.Merchandisetradebouncedback,withglobal baselines

18、cenarioprojectsthatglobaltradeingoodsandserviceswillgrowby5.7percentin2022 graduallyimproveasexternaldemandpatternsnormalize.Thetradeoutlookremainssusceptibleto Inmanypartsoftheworld,investmenthasreboundedfromthepandemic-inducedslump,supported offavourablebaseeffectsandanexceptionallysupportivefisca

19、landmonetarypolicyenvironment. 消费行业报告文档资料 Employmentlevelsareprojectedtoremainwellbelowpre-pandemiclevelsduring20222023and possiblybeyond.Thepaceofjobcreationhasbeenlargelyinadequatetooffsetearlieremployment losses although the picture varies across regions. While labour markets in developed countri

20、esare graduallyimprovingasrecoverygatherspace,employmentgrowthindevelopingcountriesremains insomecasesin2024.Thedevelopingeconomies,especiallythoseinAfrica,LatinAmericaandthe extremepoverty.Thenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepovertygloballyisprojectedtodecrease economiesinEastAsiaandSouthAsiaanddevelop

21、edeconomiesareexpectedtoexperiencesome povertyreduction.Incontrast,povertyisforecasttofurtherincreaseintheworldsmostvulnerable a thepandemicwillpersistwellinto2023.Incontrast,GDPpercapitainthedevelopedeconomiesis Unevenrecoveryofemploymentandincomeacrossdifferentpopulationgroupsisincreasing developi

22、ngcountries,wherewomenexperiencedasharperdeclineinemploymentandlabourforce participationthanmen.Manywomenfaceseriousbarrierstore-enteringthelabourforce,especially 消费行业报告文档资料to reversing the gender divide in the recovery of jobs. More broadly, an inclusive and sustainable Governments around the world

23、 will need to continue accommodative fiscal stances and avoid the recovery.Yetdifferencesinfiscalspaceandstructuralconstraintsacrosscountrieswillcontinueto limited fiscal space to confront the pandemic and support recovery, they are taking resources to haveputarisingnumberofcountriesonthevergeofadeb

24、tcrisis.Theyareinurgentneedoffurther Reinvigoratingmultilateralismwillremaincriticaltocontainthepandemicandacceleratearobust ofsteeringarecoverythatisbroad-basedandinclusive.Strongerandmoreambitiousinternational cooperationisanimperativetobeatthepandemic,puttheworldbackontracktowardssustainable Sinc

25、etheonsetofCOVID-19,countriesaroundtheworldhaverolledoutextraordinarymeasuresto mitigateadverseeconomicandfinancialimpacts.Themonetaryresponsehasbroadlyfollowedthe playbook of the 20082009 global financial crisis but with unprecedented speed, scale and scope. andsupporteconomicactivities.Butcomingon

26、theheelsofadecadeofmonetaryaccommodation, policy rates in developed economies quickly approached their effective lower bound. Developed消费行业报告文档资料 ofJapan,theUnitedKingdom,theUnitedStatesandtheeuroareahaveaddedroughly$10.2trillion in security assets to their balance sheets, with total assets soaring

27、to over $25.9 trillion by the end ofSeptember2021.BalancesheetshavealsorisensharplyasashareofGDP.Inthesecondquarter of2021,totalfinancialassetsoncentralbankbalancesheetsrangedfrom35percentofGDPinthe UnitedStatesto130percentinJapan.InimplementingAPPs,centralbankspurchasedlong-maturitysecuritiessuchas

28、governmentbonds ormortgage-backedsecuritiesfromfinancialinstitutions.Thisprovidedliquiditytorestoremarket costofservicingexistingdebt.APPsareexpectedtostimulateaggregatedemand,employmentand Thepandemicsawaturningpointformonetarypolicyinmanydevelopingcountries,wherecentral banksintroducedAPPsforthefi

29、rsttimeastheyconfrontedlargecapitaloutflows,growingrisksof 9inAsiaand8inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanembarkedonAPPs.Whiletheseprogrammes havebeenbroadlymodelledafterthoseindevelopedeconomies,theymainlyaimedtoboostmarket confidenceandreducemarketdysfunctionalityandhavebeenmuchsmallerinscaleandshorterin

30、 duration.Bythesecondquarterof2021,theReserveBankofIndiawastheonlymajordeveloping Empirical evidence suggests that the APPs have been generally effective in addressing financial distressandsupportingtherecoveryofeconomicactivitiesintheearlystagesofthecurrentcrisis. 消费行业报告文档资料 There is growing eviden

31、ce that when normal market functioning is restored and the economy is fromtheglobalfinancialcrisissuggeststhattheeffectivenessofcentralbankassetpurchasesmay not extend beyond the early recovery phase. Although monetary policies in developed countries liquidityandultralowborrowingcostsoftendidnotstim

32、ulatebanklendingtotherealeconomy.In and abundant liquidity for stock buy-backs rather than new investments. In the second quarter of 2021,buy-backsamongcompanieslistedontheStandardandPoors(S&P)500indextotalled$199 Aprolongedperiodofultraloosemonetarypolicies,withcentralbankspumpingmassiveamounts ofl

33、iquidityintofinancialmarketstokeeplong-terminterestrateslow,hascreatedsignificant countriesowedtoprivatecreditorsroseby264percentduring20102019,comparedwitha7per centdeclinefrom19982007.Excessiveexternalborrowing,especiallyfromprivatecreditors,has intheUnitedStates,wherecurrentvaluationsareapproachi

34、nglevelsonlyseenpriortothebursting ofthedot-combubblein2001.Thishasspurredfearsofever-expandingassetpricebubblesasthe disconnectbetweenfinancialmarketsandeconomicfundamentalscontinuestowiden.Ifmonetary 消费行业报告文档资料 policyrates,assetpricebubbleswouldlikelyburst.Sharpmarketcorrectionscouldtriggerarising

35、 numberofbankruptciesandinflictsubstantialeconomicdamageonafragilerecovery,withadverse globalspillovereffects.Financialstabilityconcernsarecompoundedbythehigher-riskexposureof Evidence from developed countries suggests that APPs have had adverse distributional effects, disproportionatelybenefitingri

36、chhouseholdsandwideningwealthinequalities.Capitalgainsfrom risingstock,bondorhousingpricesaccountforasignificantshareoftotalincomefortopearners, especiallythetop1percent,butarenegligibleforgroupsinthebottomoftheincomedistribution. In addition, wealthy households invest a much larger share of their p

37、ortfolios in financial assets, especially equities, which have registered the strongest price gains since the onset of the current crisis.Accordingtopreliminaryestimates,thetop1percentofincomeearnersintheUnitedStates registerednetwealthgainsofabout$3.5millionperpersonbetweenthefirstquarterof2020andt

38、he thanmenandarelesslikelytoinvestinriskyassets.Thesefindingsunderscoretheneedforcentral Whileconcernsabouthigherinflationaftertheglobalfinancialcrisisprovedunfounded,developed is back, if not unwind, their APPs. This time, the tapering of asset purchases is happening at a much fasterpacethanafterth

39、eglobalfinancialcrisis.UnwindingandeventuallyexitingAPPswillnotbe easy.Centralbanks,especiallytheFederalReserveandtheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB),facethe challengeofscalingbackbondpurchaseprogrammeswithoutcreatingfinancialmarketturmoiland orbydelayingthetighteningfortoolong,issubstantial.Beyondthisimmed

40、iatechallenge,themore fundamentalquestionisifandifso,howquicklycentralbankswillreverseassetpurchasesand reducethesizeoftheirbalancesheets.消费行业报告文档资料 Debtservicecostsinseveraldevelopedcountrieshavebecomemoresensitivetoshort-terminterest ratesinpartduetoAPPs.Ifinterestratesweretorisemoresharplyandrapi

41、dlythanexpected,public finances could come under pressure, especially in countries with high debt burdens. In the United States,forexample,interestexpensesaccountedforabout10percentoftotalgovernmentrevenues soarto22percentin2030underahigherinterestratescenario,whichcouldleadtodifficultchoices on the

42、 expenditure side. The fiscal implications of a sudden unwinding of APPs could be equally policiesshouldbeputinplace.Macroprudentialpoliciescanplayanimportantroleinstrengthening theresilienceofthefinancialsystem.Theycanslowassetpricegrowthandrestrainexcessiverisk- taking,especiallyinsectorsthatposeg

43、reaterriskstothefinancialsystem.Fiscalandtaxationpolicy through levies on capital gains and taxes on corporate stock buy-backs, can help to discourage centralbanksanopportunitytofinanceclimateaction,mitigateclimaterisksandhelptransitiontoa 消费行业报告文档资料 IntheUnitedStates,robustgrowthin2021,estimatedat5

44、.5percent,isforecasttodecelerateto3.5 per cent in 2022. Recovery has largely depended on domestic demand; external demand has been weak.Rapidgrowthindomesticdemandhasfacedincreasingsupply-sideconstraintsduetoglobal labourshortages,whichmayworsenifanewwaveofinfectiontakeshold.Theconsumption-driven re

45、covery will lose momentum once the effects of fiscal stimulus on household spending dissipate. The economy of the European Union returned to growth in 2021 along with the gradual easing of containment measures, continuation of accommodative macroeconomic policies and asharp reboundinleadingexportdes

46、tinations,particularlyChinaandtheUnitedStates.Followinga6per cent contraction in 2020, the regions GDP grew by an estimated 4.7 per cent in 2021. The region andshortagesofworkers.Theautomotiveindustry,cruciallyimportantformanyEuropeanUnion sectoractivities.Inflationinthesecondhalfoftheyearsurgedtole

47、velsnotseenforyears;however, Growthisexpectedtomoderateto3.9percentin2022duetothelowerbaseeffectandtaperingof ofdevelopedcountriesandrobustinvestment,haslostmomentum.Thereintroductionofrestrictive 消费行业报告文档资料 oninvestment.Atthesametime,thedefaultofalargerealestatefirmhasshakenfinancialmarkets andconf

48、idenceinthesector.TheGovernmentstillhasmultiplepolicytoolstostimulateeconomic towardsdevelopmentdrivenbyconsumptionandhigher-endmanufacturingwillleadtomore EconomicgrowthresumedintheCISareain2021asmobilityandactivityrestrictionswereeased orremoved,domesticdemandstrengthenedandtheexternalenvironmentb

49、ecamemorefavourable, after shrinking by 2.6 per cent in 2020, expanded by an estimated 4.3 per cent in 2021. Growth is projected to moderate to 3.2 per cent in 2022. In small energy-importing countries, recovery in remittance flows and tourism revenues supported economic activities. Labour market co

50、nditions spurred by supply disruptions, higher food and energy prices, stronger demand and in some cases currencydepreciations.Monetaryauthoritiesinalmostallcountriesreactedtotheinflationaryspike impacts on their populations. The areas economic outlook has multiple downside risks, such as in2021.But

51、thepacewilllikelyweakenin2022asgovernmentsscalebackfiscalsupportamiddebt 3.8percentin2021.Whileimprovingvaccinationratesandtermsoftradewillsupportmorerobust economicgrowth,thecontinentwillremainfarbelowitspre-pandemicoutputtrends.Moreover,a as most of the regions population remains unvaccinated. Pol

52、itical instability and conflict inmany rate is projected to remain elevated, with an increase in the absolute number of people in extreme 消费行业报告文档资料 spacetosupporteconomicrecoveryandimplementthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment, underscoringthecriticalroleofmultilateralsupport,includingtoexpeditev

53、accinedistributionand of stimulusandexternaldemand.Morepeopleinextremepoverty,aslowlabourmarketrecoveryand Lookingahead,theregionseconomicgrowthisforecasttomoderateto4.9percentin2022asbase amid a lingering pandemic with new variants, pose downside risks. Containing the pandemic will Therecoveryconti

54、nuestogainmomentuminSouthAsiaamidcontainedCOVID-19infectionsand higher mobility, robust remittance inflows and broadly supportive macroeconomic policystances. Afteranestimatedexpansionof7.4percentin2021,regionalGDPisprojectedtogrowatamore moderatepaceof5.9percentin2022.Therecovery,however,isstillfra

55、gile,unevenandsubjectto pandemic-related uncertainties and downside risks. Labour market recovery is lagging, indicating severe socioeconomic challenges for large segments of the population. Stalling and reversing the recent rise in poverty and inequality largely depends on achieving robust, sustain

56、ed and inclusive 消费行业报告文档资料 percentin2020.Economicrecoveryhasbeenledmainlybygrowthindomesticdemand.Withthe relaxationofpandemiccontrolmeasuresandprogressonvaccination,economicactivitiesshowed rapid recovery in most economies in the region in the second half of 2021. In parallel with robust domestic

57、demand, the unemployment rate declined towards pre-pandemic levels in Israel, Saudi ArabiaandTurkey.Employmentrecoveryhasbeenslowerinothercountriesandtheemployment LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanseconomyreboundedfromtheCOVID-19crisisamidfavourable byarecord7.4percentin2020,theregionsGDPgrewbyanestimated

58、6.5percentin2021.Butthe andpoverty,greaterinequalityandlargerdebtburdens.RegionalGDPgrowthisprojectedtoslow governmentsincreasinglyshiftingfromfiscalstimulustotheconsolidationofpublicfinances.The a economicoutputandthelabourmarketremainsunevenacrosscountriesduetolargedifferencesin seensharplyrisingn

59、umbersofpeopleinextremepoverty,wideninggendergapsinlabourmarkets, confrontdifficultpolicytrade-offs,ascountriesaimtomovefromareboundinoutputtoarobust, 消费行业报告文档资料 andlabourmarketpolicies,supportedbynewtechnologies.Theinternationalcommunityneedsto 消费行业报告文档资料消费行业报告文档资料Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . .

60、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Explanatory notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Sustainable Development Goals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Executive summary