世界经济概论（英文版）chapter 06 Global Economic Challenges

chapter06GlobalEconomicChallengesInthischapter,we’llcover:GlobalPovertyClimateChangeOilSupplyShockDebtCrisisGlobalPovertyHumanPovertyIndex(HPI)developedbyUNDPaimstomeasurethedeprivationsarisingoutofhumanpoverty.Millenniumdevelopmentgoals(MDGs)GlobalPovertyIn1990-2010thedrivingforcebehindthereductionofworldwidepovertywasgrowth.Tokeeppovertyreductiongoing,growthwouldhavetobemaintainedatsomethinglikeitscurrentrate.ClimateChangeThegreenhouseeffect：evidentintheincreaseinoceantemperature,riseinsealevelandmeltingdownoficebergs.TheCFCsareusedbyrichercountriesandareofstrictlyindustrial,anthropogenicorigin.ClimateChangeTheeffectsofglobalwarminginthe21stcentury：Projectedclimatechangeislikelytoaffectmillionsofpeoplewhoarealreadyvulnerable.MillionsmorepeopleareprojectedtobeatriskfromcoastalfloodingduetosealevelriseClimateChangeApproximately20-30percentofplantandanimalspeciesassessedsofararelikelytobeathigherriskofextinctionifincreasesinglobalaveragetemperatureexceed1.5-2.5degreesCelsius.ClimateChangeInthecourseofthecurrentcentury,watersuppliesstoredinglaciersandsnowcoverareprojectedtodecline,reducingwateravailabilityinregionssuppliedbymeltwaterfrommajormountainranges,wheremorethanone-sixthoftheworldpopulationcurrentlylives.ClimateChangePeoplelivingonsmallislandsareparticularlyvulnerabletorisingsealevels,extremeweather,anddeterioratingcoastalconditionsassociatedwithglobalwarming.ClimateChangeThe1989MontrealAccordsonCFCemissionsThe1997KyotoProtocolThe1992UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeTheEuropeanClimateChangeProgramorECCPOilSupplyShockEnergycrisis:oilnotably.OECDcountriestodayuseandimportmoreenergythaneverbefore,nowjoinedbyrapidlyindustrializingcountriessuchasChina,India,andBrazil.oilwillcontinuetobetheprincipalenergyresourcefortheforeseeablefuture.OilSupplyShockTheEndofCheapOilanditsImpactIncountrieswhereoilpricesarenotsubsidized,thereareseveralbasicissues:Higheroilpricesleadconsumerstocutbackondiscretionaryexpenses.GovernmentsarealsoaffectedOilSupplyShockInothercountrieswhichdon’tsubsidizeoilprice:Withoutoilexportstosell,itisveryhardtohaveenoughmoneytofundsubsidiesoffoodandoil.OilSupplyShockTheRisksofOilShockin2012Globally,thedamagefrompriceincreasestodateislikelytobemodest.Buttheimpactongrowthandinflationinindividualcountrieswilldiffer.OilSupplyShockAmericansaredrivingless,andtheyarebuyingmorefuel-efficientcars.Europeismoreexposed.Britainisrelativelyinsulated.Inemergingeconomiesthepictureisevenmoredisparate.DebtCrisisTheglobalfinancialcrisisof2008causedpermanentdamagetotheindustrialcountriesatthecenterofthecrisis.Threemainformsofthecrisis:highandrisingpublicdebts,fragilebanks,andahugeliquidityoverhangthatwillneedtobeeventuallywithdrawn.DebtCrisisTheEuroinCrisisProblematicsovereigndebtinGreeceandothervulnerablecountries,andfragileEuropeanbanks,whichholdalargepartofthatdebt.DebtCrisisDeeperCauses:ThesecularlossofcompetitivenessassociatedwitheuroadoptionincountriesincludingGreece,Ireland,Italy,Portugal,andSpain(GIIPS).ThegrowthmodelintheGIIPSwasinherentlyflawed:eventually,thedomesticdemandbubbleburst.DebtCrisisEffectsonOtherCountries1.thecrisiswilllowergrowthinEurope,amarkettowardwhichaboutaquarterofworldexportsaredestined.2.itwillleadtofurthereurodepreciation,sharplyreducingprofitsfromexportstoEuropewhilealsoincreasingcompetitionfromthecontinent.DebtCrisis3.bykeepingpolicyrateslowinEuropeandpotentiallyotherindustrializedcountriesaswell,thecrisismayencouragecapitalsurgesintoemergingmarkets.4.thecrisiswilladdgreatlytothevolatilityoffinancialmarketsandwillleadtoboutsofrisk-aversion.DebtCrisis5.thecrisiscoulddealamortalblowtomanyfragilefinancialinstitutions.6.afailuretocontainthecrisiswillraisethealarmonsovereigndebtinotherindustrialcountriesand,inevitably,inanyexposedemergingmarket.DebtCrisisRemediesUnlesstheninemostaffectedcountriesarepreparedtobreakfromtheeuro,theymustresorttoawell-knowncocktailoffiscalconsolidationdesignedtostabilizetheirdebt-to-GDPratio,andstructuralreformsdesignedtoboostproductivity,competitiveness,andpotentialgrowth.DebtCrisisTheU.S.DebtCrisesAttributabletopro-cyclicalfiscalpolicyduringtheperiodprecedingthefinancialcrisis.Totacklethedebtdifficulties,theUSgovernment,withtheassistanceoftheEUandtheIMFaretakingmeasurestolessentheimpact.StudyQuestionsStudyQuestions1. Howdoestheseverityofpovertyvaryintheworld?Illustratewithfactsandfigures.2. Whatwillbethedisastrouseffectsofglobalwarmingiftherearenoeffectivesolutions?3. Howhastheinternationalcommunitystrivedtocontro