研究生英语教程Unit1

Unit1CreatingaLow-CarbonEconomy创建低碳生活Overview概述1.Thereisnolongeranyrealquestionthatglobalwarmingisoccurringastheresultoftherapidbuild-upofgreenhousegasesprimarilycausedbyhumanactivities.Weareonatrajectoryforglobalwarmingtobecomemuchmoreintenseunlesswebeginaconcerted,rapidshifttowardalow-carboneconomy.Andthedangerisincreasinglyclearandpresent.AsRajendraPachauri,chairmanoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandrecipientofthe2007NobelPeacePrize,hassaid,“Ifthere’snoactionbefore2012,that’stoolate.Whatwedointhenexttwotothreeyearswilldetermineourfuture.Thisisthedefiningmoment.”人再持有异议。除非我们协同一致，快速转向低碳经济，否则全球变暖的趋势将会愈演愈烈。这一危机日益彰显逼近。正如获得2007年诺贝尔和平奖的联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）主席拉金德拉·帕乔里所声称的：“如果在2012年之前我们还没有采取行动，那就为时已晚了。我们在未来两到三年中的所作所为将决定我们的未来。这是决定性的时刻。”2.TheEarth’saveragetemperaturehasalreadyincreasedby0.8°C（about1.4°F）overpre-industriallevels,increasingatarateof0.2°Cperdecadesince1975,andwithoutchangingourcourse,wewilllockseveralmoredegreesofchangeintothesystem.Suchtemperatureshiftsmaysoundsmall,buttheyarenot.Duringthelasticeage,averageglobaltemperaturewasonlyabout5.4°C（about9.7°F）colderthanitisnow.0.81.4华氏度左1975年以来每十年增加0.2那么温度还会继续发生永久性的变化。这种温度变化听起来似乎不大，但事实并非如此。最后一个冰河时代时的全球平均气温不过比现今低约5.4摄氏度（9.7华氏度）。3.Manyofourleadingclimatescientistshavewarnedthatifweexceed2.0°C（about）abovepre-industrialtimes,wewillenteradangerous,unchartedterritory.Nooneknowsatwhatprecisetemperaturetheeffectsofglobalwarmingbecomeintolerablylarge,whetherasaresultofgradualworseningofdroughts,floods,hurricanes,andheatwavesorasaresultofabrupt,catastrophicchange,suchasthecollapseoftheGreenlandorWestAntarcticicesheetsandtheaccompanyingglobalswellinsealevels.Butweareconductingadangerousuncontrolledexperimentwiththeonlyhomewehave.Thisiswhyyoungpeopleinincreasingnumbersarestartingtoseeclimatechangeasthechallengeoftheirgeneration.业化前2摄氏度（3.6华氏度）的话，我们将会迈进一个危险的未知国度。旱、洪水、飓风以及热浪等自然灾害的逐渐恶化，造成诸如格陵兰岛或西南么越来越多的年轻人开始将气候变化视为他们这一代人的一项挑战。4.TheWashingtonPostreportedinAprilthat,“Formanychildrenandyoungadults,globalwarmingistheatomicbomboftoday.FearsofanenvironmentalcrisisaredefiningtheirgenerationinwaysthattheDepression,WorldWarⅡ,VietnamandtheColdWar’slingering‘WarGames’etchedsoulsinthe20thcentury.”《华盛顿邮报》4月刊报导到：“对于许多儿童和青年而言，全球气候变暖无异于当今的原子弹。对于环境危机的担忧正影响着这一代人，正如经济大萧条、第二次世界大战、越南战争和冷战等等挥之不去的战争游戏影响了20世纪的灵魂一样。”5.Someofthedireprojectionsmaynotoccur,butinlightofthewarningsfromourbestscientists,itwouldbeyondirresponsibletotakethatbet.Scientistsaretellingusifwedonottakeactionsoon,itwillbelatetoavoidthemostseriousconsequencesofglobalwarming.告，如果我们再冒险尝试将是极不负责任的做法。科学家告诉我们，如果我们不尽快采取行动，想要避免全球变暖引发的最严重恶果则为时晚矣。EnvironmentCosts环境损失6.Theprojectedenvironmentconsequencesofclimatechangearewellknown.Theonlythingthatkeepschanging,withthesteadydrumbeatofnewandbetterscientificdataandanalysis,isthatthepicturegetsmoreandmoreserious.InthewordsofHarvard’sJohnHoldren,oneofourleadingsciencepolicythinkers,globalclimatechangeisthemostdangerousofallenvironmentproblemsbecauseclimaterepresentstheenvelopewithinwhichournaturalsystemsoperate.Bybadlydisruptingthatenvelope,we“adverselyaffecteverydimensionofhumanwell-beingthatistiedtotheenvironment.”分析，唯一保持不断变化的景象就是越来越糟的环境。作为首席科学政策专·最危险的，因为气候就像一个信封，保障其中所有自然生态系统正常运作。如果这一包裹层遭到严重破坏，我们就会“对环境影响下人类福祉的每一个层面产生不利影响。”7.TheFourthAssessmentReportonClimateChangeImpactsreleasedinApril2007bytheIPCC,theofficialbodyofover2,000scientistsactingundertheauspicesoftheUnitedNations,presentsastarkpicture.TheIPCCreportsaysthat“humaninducedclimatechangeisalreadyaffectingphysicalandbiologicalprocessesonallcontinentsandsomeoceans.”Amongotherimpacts,thereportwarnsof:在联合国的主持下，IPCC2000多名科学家组成的官方机构于2007年4月发布了关于气候变化影响的第四次评估报告，为人们展示了一幅鲜明的预警图。IPCC的报告声称“人类活动引起的气候变化已经影响到所有大陆和一些海洋的物理及生物进程”。在诸多影响中，该报告尤其警告：Extremeweathereventssuchasdrought,floods,andseverestorms,includinghurricanes,becomingmoreintenseandinflictinggreaterdamagetolifeandproperty.极端天气事件，如干旱、洪水和严重的风暴，包括飓风，将变得更加严重，对生命和财产造成更大损害。Increasinghurricaneintensity.（otherrecentscientificfindingssuggestthatnotjusttheintensitybutalsothefrequencyofhurricanesisincreasingwithrisingsea-surfacetemperatures.）飓风强度增加。（其他最新科学研究结果表明，不只是强度，飓风的频率也会增加，同时伴随海表面温度升高）。Risingsealevelsthreateningthemega-deltaregionsofAsia,coastalcitiesinEurope,low-lyingareasinNorthandLatinAmerica,andsmallislands.ThemeltingoftheGreenlandicesheetalonecouldleadtoasea-levelriseofsevenmeters.海平面上升，威胁亚洲的大型三角洲地区、欧洲沿海城市、北美和拉丁美洲的低洼地区，及小岛屿。单是格陵兰冰原融化就可能导致海平面上升7米。Increasedwaterscarcityfacing1billionto2billionpeople.水资源匮乏问题恶化，10亿至20亿人口面临缺水。Increasedriskofheat-andflood-relatedmortalityandofwaterandfood-bornediseases.发生高温及洪水造成死亡、水及食物传染疾病的风险增加。Decliningcropyieldsandincreasedhungerinsomeregions,includingpartsofAfricaandAsia.作物产量下降，一些地区饥荒严重，包括非洲和亚洲的部分地区。Degradingfisheries.渔业不景气。Decliningcoralreefsystems.珊瑚礁系统退化。Extinctionfacing20percentto30percentofglobalplantandanimallife.全球20％至30％的植物和动物面临灭绝。EconomicCosts经济损失8.Thereissubstantialuncertaintyaboutthepreciseeconomiccostsofclimatechange,butifwecontinuetoourcurrentpaththereislittledoubtthatoveralltheywouldbeverylarge.Alookattrendlinesfromtheinsuranceindustrygivesahintofthekindofrisingmagnitudeofdamagewemightseefromjustoneprojectedeffectofglobalwarming—extremeweatherevents.关于气候变化的具体经济成本很难确定，但如果我们不改变做法，这笔数字无疑会非常庞大。参考保险业的趋势，我们可以得到这样一个暗示，当损害里，其中之一就是极端天气现象的产生。9.AtthemeetingoftheU.N.FrameworkConventiononClimateChangeinMoroccoin2001,largereinsurancecompanies（whichofferinsurancetootherinsurers）suchasSwissReandMunichRewarnedoftheincreaseinextremeweatherevents.AccordingtoMunichRe,“Thenumberofreallybigweatherdisastershasincreasedfour-foldifwecomparethelastdecadetothe1960s.Theeconomiclosseshaveleapedseven-foldandtheinsuredlossesare11timesgreater.”In2004,SwissRewarnedinareportthatthecostsofnaturaldisasters,aggravatedbyclimatechange,threatenedtodoubleto$150billionayearin10years.2001大型再保险公司（为其他保险公司提供保险）发出警告表示极端天气事件一再增加。据慕尼黑再保险公司声称：“如果我们把过去十年和20世纪60年47倍，保险损失也提高了11倍。”2004年瑞士再保险公司在一份报告中警告说，气候变化加剧导致的自然灾害损失在未来10年内可能每年都会翻倍至1500亿美元。10.Moresystematically,themuchdiscussedSternReviewoftheEconomicsofClimateChange,commissionedbytheBritishgovernmentandauthoredbySirNicholasStern,formerChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank,concludesthateconomicdamagesfromclimatechangecouldbeseismic:·特恩评论气候变化下的经济》引起了广泛讨论，他在其中更系统地总结到气候变化带来的经济损失可能影响巨大：Ouractionsoverthecomingfewdecadescouldcreaterisksofmajordisruptiontoeconomicandsocialactivity,laterinthiscenturyandinthenext,onascalesimilartothoseassociatedwiththegreatwarsandeconomicdepressionofthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.Anditwillbedifficultorimpossibletoreversethesechanges.在未来的几十年里，我们的行为可能会对经济和社会活动造成很大破坏，在本世纪末及下世纪，其规模类似二十世纪前半叶大战和经济衰退带来的相关影响。想要逆转这些变化很难，甚至是不可能的。11.Sternseesthethreatofthismajordisruptioncomingfromanumberoffactors,includingtheincreasedcostsofdamagefromextremeweathereventssuchasfloods,droughts,hurricanes,heatwaves,andmajorstorms;theriskthatsucheventsaffectglobalfinancialmarketsthroughhigherormorevolatileininsurancecosts;andtheriskofabruptandlarge-scaleclimatechange.Sternalsopointstotheconsequencesofclimatechangeonenvironmentandonhumanhealthaseconomicgrowthandproductivitysufferundertheweightofdegradingenvironmentalconditions.斯特恩认为造成这一重大破坏的成因很多，包括：如洪水、干旱、飓风、热浪、大暴雨等极端天气现象所造成的损失越来越大；由于保险费用更高或更不稳定，此类现象可能影响全球金融市场；同时存在突发大规模气候变化的风险。斯特恩还指出，迫于环境条件恶化，经济增长缓慢，生产力下降，气候变化对环境和人类健康可能带来哪些后果。BuildingaLow-CarbonEconomy创建低碳经济12.Todesignpoliciesaimedatcreatingalow-carboneconomy,weneedtounderstandfirsttheextenttowhichglobalaveragetemperaturescanrisewithouttriggeringthedangerousconsequencesofglobalwarmingand,second,howlowweneedtokeeptheatmosphericconcentrationofgreenhousegasesinordertostaywithinthattemperaturelimit.bothofthesequestions（thetemperaturelimitandtheconcentrationlimit）mustbeansweredbasedonscientificanalysisofhistoricclimatedataandprojectionsoffutureconditions,andstate-of-the-artcomputermodelspaintastarkpictureofwhatistocome.均气温上升却不会触发全球变暖的危险后果。第二，在温度极限内要保持多低的大气温室气体浓度。回答这两个问题（温度极限和浓度极限）必须运用进的计算机模型所描绘出鲜明的未来预测图。13.Asnoted,globalmeantemperatureisabout0.8°C（1.4°F）abovepre-industriallevels,andanother0.6°C（1.1°F）offurtherwarmingisprobablybuiltintothesystemalready.Evenifwecutoffemissionstomorrow,theconcentrationofgreenhousegasesintheatmospherewouldcontinuerisingsincethesegasespersistintheatmosphereforaverylongtime–fromdecadestothousandsofyearsaftertheyarefirstemitteddependingonthespecifictypeofgreenhousegas.0.81.4并且将永久性再升高0.6摄氏度（1.1华氏度）。即使我们明天停止排放，间——不同温室气体一经排放，可能保留几十年甚至几千年。14.Theevidenceismountingfortheneedtomaintainglobalaveragetemperaturesatnomorethanapproximately（3.6°Fabovepre-industriallevels,aleveltheCenterforAmericanProgressandotherscalledforin2005in“MeetingtheClimateChallenge,”thereportoftheInternationalClimateChangeTaskForcethatwaschairedbySen.OlympiaSnowe（R-ME）andU.K.MemberofParliamentStephenByers.AsJohnHoldrenhasdiscussed,thescientificviewofanappropriatetemperaturetargethasevolvedrecentlydownward:其证据是我们曾努力将全球平均气温保持在不超出工业化前温度约2.0摄3.62005年撰写的一份名为《迎接气候挑战需要》的报告中所倡导的，该报告隶属于由参议员奥林匹亚·R-ME·拜尔斯主持的国际气候变·经下调：Untilafewyearsagomanyanalysisandgroupsweresuggestingthatstabilizationofatmosphericconcentrationsatalevelcorrespondingtoaincreasewasinfactasuitabletarget…Thelastfewyearsofaccumulatingevidenceaboutimpactsalreadybeingencounteredatonly0.8°Cabovethepre–industrialaveragetemperature,however,haveledmanyanalysistoargueforamoreambitioustarget,witheincludingtheEuropeansettlingon2°C.3摄氏度的水平是合适的目标……但是前几年比工业化前平均温度仅高出的0.8摄氏度所国家（包括欧盟）将其设定在2摄氏度。15.Ifatemperaturetargetinthisrangeisnotmaintained,theplanetfacesseriousrisks.InaFebruary2007statementtoU.NSecretary-GeneralBanKi-moon,andtheU.K.CommissiononSustainableDevelopment,Holdrensaid:如果这一范围内的温度目标没有实现，地球将面临严重风险。霍尔德伦在2007年2月向联合国秘书长潘基文及联合国可持续发展委员提交的声明中说：Ifthebuild-upofgreenhousegasespushestheglobalaveragesurfacetemperaturepast2-2.5°Cabovethepre-industriallevel,thedangerofintolerableandunmanageableimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanwell-beingbecomesveryhigh.2-2.5摄氏度的水平，那么人类将难以承受、无法治理的气候变化就非常有可能发生，并对人类的福祉产生影响。16.Dr.JamesHansen,thenotedclimatescientistatNASA’sGoddardInstitudeforSpaceStudies,hasissuedsimilarwarnings:美国宇航局戈达德空间研究所的著名气候学家詹姆斯·汉森博士发出了类似的警告：Weconcludethatglobalwarmingofmorethanabout1°C,relativeto2000,willconstitute“dangerous”climatechangeasjudgedfromlikelyeffectsonsealevelandexterminationofspecies.我们的结论是相对2000年的，全球气候变暖超过1摄氏度将构成“危险”的气候变化，这一点从海平面上升和物种灭绝可能产生的影响就可以做出判断。17.TheIPCC,initsFourthAssessmentReportonMitigationofClimateChange,publishedinMay2007,analyzestheconcentrationlevelsthatcorrespondtoestimatedincreasesintheglobalmeanaveragetemperatureabovepre-industriallevels.Accordingtothisanalysis,keepingaveragetemperaturetoanincreaseintherangeof2.0°Cto2.4°CwouldrequireaCOequivalentconcentration–or2COe,whichisameasurementthatexpressestheglobalwarmingpotentialofall2greenhousegasescomparedtoCO–intherangeof445partspermillionto4902partspermillion,a