科尔尼咨询报告在数字经济中竞争

November17,1999NorthwesternUniversityHighTechClubCompetingintheDigitalEconomy第一页，共三十页。AgendaIntroduction—WhatistheDigitalEconomy?DriversoftheDigitalEconomyNewBusinessPractices—WhatDoesitTaketoWin?Time-ValueCompetitionContentandcontainersIntelligentMarkets-theDigitalValueNetworkIntelligentexecution-competingoninsightIntelligentorganizations第二页，共三十页。IntroductiontotheDigitalEconomy第三页，共三十页。Digital

EconomyThelastthreedecadeshaveseentheemergenceofadigitaleconomycharacterizedbyanincreasedemphasisoncomputingandcommunicationsThisincreaseduseofcomputingandcommunications(“digitization”)ischangingtheworldofbusinessIndustrial

EconomyPre-Industrial

EconomyPre-18501850-19601960-Present第四页，共三十页。ThisperiodiscomparabletopreviouseconomicupheavalsandimpactsallindustriesNeweconomiesemergeattheinflectionpointofpreviouseconomiesandco-existwiththeirpredecessors170018001900AgriculturalEconomyIndustrialEconomyDigitalEconomy2000WorldEconomyPresentDay第五页，共三十页。Informationisbecomingthekeyinput,whichischangingthewaybusinessesoperateandthenatureofworkRatioofExpendituresonInformationtoProductionTechnology19801975197019651983806040201820184018601880190019201940196019801995Notes: (1)Consistsofserviceworkers,includingpositionssuchasfinance,marketing,etc.inindustrialcompanies (2)ConsistsofphysicalworkersinindustrialfirmsSources:

“InformationTechnologyandtheCorporationofthe1990s”(1994),U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(1996)U.S.EmploymentByOccupation

(PercentOfTotal)IT$PT$TypeOfWorker“KnowledgeWorkers”(1)“TouchLabor”(2)Agriculture第六页，共三十页。

Digitizationallowsworktooccuranytime,anyplaceleadingtoadramaticincreaseinglobalactivityDriversReducedcostsofcommunicationImmediateaccesstoinformationRapiddiffusionoftechnologyIncreasedaccesstonewmarketsIncreasednumberofcompetitorsSources:F.C.C.,U.S.DepartmentofTreasuryU.S.DirectOverseasInvestment($Billion)1980199319801993ForeignDirectInvestmentInTheU.S.($Billion)1980199519851990OverseasTelephoneCalls($Million)第七页，共三十页。InformationTechnology’sShareoftheGDPcontinuestogrow,fuelingtheDigitalEconomy第八页，共三十页。DriversoftheDigitalEconomy第九页，共三十页。AdvancesintechnologyandimprovementsininformationmanagementaredrivingdigitizationMetcalfe’sLawofNetworkValueGreaterStorageCapabilitiesCheap,DeregulatedCommunicationsInternetAccessPervasiveemailusageJavaandJiniFixedandremovableHarddrivesCD-ROMsDVDsTelephonesSatellitesFaxesModemsIncreasinglyDigitizedBusinessProcessesMoore’sLawofMicrocomputingMicroprocessorsPersonalcomputersWorkstations“Smart”products (Embeddedcomputing)第十页，共三十页。Moore’sLawofMicrocomputingEvery12-18months,theprocessingpowerofmicrochipsdoubles103104105106107108109400480808086802868038680486PentiumPentiumPro80786TransistorsperChipDate第十一页，共三十页。Moore’sLawofMicrocomputingAndwitheachsuccessivegeneration,thepriceperMIPSplummets第十二页，共三十页。Metcalfe’sLawofNetworkValueThevalueofthenetworkgrowsexponentiallyasthenumberofmembersornodesonthenetworkgrowsNumberofMembersValueofNetworkExtranet/sharednetworkManufacturersDistributorsSuppliersLogistics第十三页，共三十页。GreaterStorageCapabilityAswiththeincreasingprocessingpower(Moore’sLaw),storagedensityforalltypesofmediaisgrowingatastaggeringrateallowingdata,images,sound,andothermasscontenttobestoredandaccesseddigitallyDesktopHardDriveCapacityGigabytesMegabytesDesktopMemoryCapacity第十四页，共三十页。Cheaper,DeregulatedTelecommunicationsTelecommunicationswasoneofthelastindustriestofalltode-regulationglobally—stillinprocess.Beforede-regulationwehadGrove’sLaw—telecommunicationsbandwidthdoubleseveryhundredyears(somewhatinjest).Wherede-regulated,pricehasplummeted,serviceandbandwidthhaveincreasedBandwidthtothehomeisrisingataratecommensuratewithMoore’sLawandthegrowthofstoragemediumModemSpeed/Type TransferTime9.6Kbpsmodem 2.3hours14.4Kbpsmodem 1.5hours28.8Kbpsmodem 46minutes128KbpsISDN 10minutes1.54MbpsT-1connection 52seconds4Mbpscablemodem 20seconds8MbpsADSLtechnology 10seconds10Mbpscablemodem 8secondsSource:FCC,CSDocketNo.96-496,1997;ADSLfromWerbach1997,p.75.第十五页，共三十页。PuttingitallTogetherWhentakentogether,thecombinedeffectsofincreasedcomputingpower,networkgrowth,storagecapacitygrowth,andbandwidthgrowthprovideentirenewcomputingcapabilitieswitheachsuccessivegenerationTheideaofareal-timevideophone—relyingonbandwidth,computingpower,andstorage—wasoncesciencefictionandisquicklybecomingarealityDistributingdigitalqualitypre-recordedandlivemusicandvideo,againrelyingonbandwidth,computingpower,andstorage,hasbecomearealityonlyinthepastyearForwardthinkingcompaniesareemployingthesenewtechnologycapabilitiestobreaktherules,transformingexistingindustries,andcreatingentirenewonesThisconvergenceoftechnologydevelopmentandresultantnewbusinesspracticesaremakingtraditionalbusinessmodelsveryunstableandforcingcompaniestocannibalizetraditionalmarkets,andadoptthesenewbusinesspracticesiftheyaretosurvive第十六页，共三十页。NewBusinessPractices—

WinningintheDigitalEconomy第十七页，共三十页。TheadventoftheDigitalEconomyisaltering“traditional”businessparadigmsComputingerasesinformationasymmetriespreviouslyusedtoobtainmarketpowerDigitizationwillblurindustry,enterpriseandgeographicboundariesKnowledge,facilities,andcapitalwillbemoreeasilyaccessibleeliminatingtheexistingasymmetriesSupplychainsaremovedfromasequentialflowofinformationtoparallelactivitiesDigitizationwillenableimmediateaccesstoinformationbyallparticipantsProducts,services,relationshipsandfundsareexchangedandalteredsimultaneouslyThechangeswillimpactoperationsfirst,andultimatelychangethestructureofentireindustriesContentandcomputingstandardsreducehighswitchingcostswhichpreviouslycreatedexitbarriersforcustomers第十八页，共三十页。SeveralcharacteristicsshapethedigitaleconomyTime-ValueCompetitionContentandcontainersIntelligentMarkets-theDigitalValueNetworkIntelligentexecution-competingoninsightIntelligentorganizations第十九页，共三十页。IntheDigitalEconomy,consumerswillhavetoomanychoices,toomuchinformation,andfartoomuchcomplexitytodealwith.Whattheywon’thavenearenoughofisTIMEIncorporatingTimeintoyourofferingwillbecomeaprimarydifferentiatorofproductsandservices.UnderstandingandcommunicatingtheTime-ValueofanofferingwillbeakeytosuccessTime-ValuecompetitionTimeAvailableforDesiredActivitiesTimeAvailableforRequiredActivitiesConsumerPerceptionofTimeConsumptionAgriculturalIndustrialDigital

EconomyEconomyEconomy第二十页，共三十页。TimeValueCaseStudy—MobilSpeedpass“…toachievecompetitivedifferentiationandcustomerloyaltywithinourtargetmarket,wechosetofocusourstrategyoncustomerservicebasedonspeed(ortime)andconvenience.”—BrianBaker,President,NorthAmericanMarketing&RefiningWhetheryouhavethekeytagorthecartag,Speedpassusesanelectronicsystemlocatedinthepumpto“talkwithaminiatureradio-likedevice(atransponder)Together,theseelectronicdevicesprovide“instant”accesstogasolinebyautomaticallychargingfuelpurchasestothecreditcardyouselectedwhenyouenrolledTheSpeedpasssystemoperatesonadedicatedtransponderidentificationcode.YourcreditcardcoderemainsoutsidetheSpeedpasssignalsystem,maintainingtheconfidentialityofthatinformationandprotectingyouraccountfromunauthorizeduse第二十一页，共三十页。Traditionally,productshavebeeneitherpredominantlycontainers(physicalobjectssuchasautomobiles,compactdiscs,videoplayersetc)orcontent(intelligencethataddsvaluesuchassoftware,printmedia,GPSsystemsetc)Themarketisdemandingintegratedcontentintensiveproductsandservices.MicroprocessorsarebeingintegratedintoallkindsofproductsallowingfortheincorporationofdigitalcontentandintelligenceIndustryAirlinePharmaceuticalAutomotiveChemicalContainerAirplaneDrug/TabletsAutomobileChemicalsLoadbalancinglogic,navigationsystems,securitychecksDosageschedule,Usageschedule,RefillreminderGlobalpositioning,selfdiagnosticmaintenance,securitysystemsConditionssuitabilitymonitoring,lot/expirationandusagetrackingContentandContainersContent第二十二页，共三十页。ContentandContainerCaseStudy—GMOnstarMedialEmergencyAccidentServicesRoadsideAssistanceConvenienceServices第二十三页，共三十页。IntelligentMarkets—TheDigitalValueNetworkValueChainsarebeingtransformed,theinternetandothertechnologiesareprovidingthecapabilitytofullyintegrateallplayerstoincreaseefficiencyanddelivernewlevelsofvaluetotheconsumerCustomersCustomersInfomediaryDigitalValueNetworkTraditionalSupplyChainInfo/NetworkPlatform=GoodsFlow=FundsFlow=InformationFlowCustomersCustomers第二十四页，共三十页。Monorail’svirtualbusinessmodelreinventsthenatureofcompetitioninthecomputerbusinessEndCustomersMONORAILFederalExpressSunTrustBankSykesEnterprisesSCIOrderprocessingShipping/DeliveryTechnicalsupportProductdesignProductmarketingManufacturingAssemblyWarehousingCreditInvoicing/CollectionsA/RmanagementIntelligentMarketsCaseStudy-Monorail第二十五页，共三十页。Intelligentexecution-competingoninsightFarmer’sleveragesatellitemonitoringsystemstoyielddramaticsavingsonkeyinputssuchasseed,fertilizer,andinsecticideGaugemineral/nutrientcontentMonitoryield+AdjustdispersalMeasuresunlight+DetectdiseaseSource:CIOMagazine“LeanAcres”10/1/98Analyze第二十六页，共三十页。IntelligentOrganizationsTechnologyismakingmarketsmoreefficient,andcreatingnewmarketsforproductsandservicesthatweretraditionallydonewithinthe4wallsofcorporationsAstechnologydrivesdownthetransactioncostsassociatedwithsourcinganykindofserviceandefficientmarketsevolvetofulfillthoseservices,thedefinitionof“firm”isbeingchangedCompaniesarebeingforcedtofocusontheirvalueaddedcompetencies—thosethingstheydowellandthathavetangiblevalueintheeyesoftheconsumerAnewformoforganizationwillemergeinthedigitaleconomy—onein