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BuyCL
22February2024|12:28AMEST
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
RobustGenAIinfrastructurespendcoupledwithstringofnewproductstosupportcontinuedoutperformance;FY4QEPSrecap
NVDA12mPriceTarget:$875.00Price:$674.72Upside:29.7%
NvidiadeliveredagainstwhatwasseeminglyaveryhighbarwithDataCenteronceagainservingasthekeygrowthdriver.Lookingahead,despitethe>3xyoyincreaseinDataCenterrevenuein
FY2024,wemodelanother>2xyoyincreaseinFY2025aswe
expectnotonlysustainedgrowthinGenAIinfrastructurespendingbythelargeCSPsandconsumerinternetcompanies,butalso
increaseddevelopmentandadoptionofAIacrossenterprise
customersrepresentingvariousindustryverticalsand,increasingly,sovereignstates.Inthenear-term,weseeastringofnewproductintroductions,includingtheH200(i.e.capableof2xtheinferenceperformancevs.theH100),Spectrum-X(i.e.Ethernet-basedAI
Networkingsolution),andB100(i.e.next-generationDataCenterGPUplatform)aswellasimprovingsupply,augmentingwhatisalreadyarobustdemandbackdrop.Allin,weincreaseour
FY2025/26non-GAAPEPS(excl.SBC)estimatesby8%,and
reiterateourBuyrating(alsoontheConvictionList)withour
updated12-monthpricetargetof$875(upfrom$800prior)
representing19%potentialupside(vsAHstockpriceof$736).WewillbeattendingNvidia’sGPUTechnologyConference(akaGTC)
nextmonthinSanJoseandlookforwardtodetailsregardinga)thecompany’sfuturetechnologyandproductroadmap,b)
management’supdatedviewsonthelong-termopportunityset,c)specificusecasesofGenAIbyNvidia’scustomersandpartners,andd)ongoinginitiativesatthecompanyaimedat
maintaining/extendingitscompetitivelead.Seeourfullnoteformoredetails.
ResultsandGuidance
Results:FY4Q(January)revenueof$22.1bnincreased22%qoqand265%yoy.Bysegment,Gamingrevenueof$2.9bnwasup56%yoydrivenbyrobustdemandandanormalizationinchannel
ToshiyaHari
+1(646)446-1759|
toshiya.hari@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
AnmolMakkar
+1(212)934-5814|
anmol.makkar@
GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL
TrevorJanoskie
+1(212)357-9851|
trevor.janoskie@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
ChrisKress
+1(212)902-6696|
chris.kress@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
KeyData
Marketcap:$1.7tr
Enterprisevalue:$1.6tr
3mADTV:$25.8bn
UnitedStates
AmericasSemiconductorsandSemiEquipment
M&ARank:3
AmericasConvictionList
GSForecast
Revenue($mn)New
Revenue($mn)Old
EBITDA($mn)
EBIT($mn)
EPS($)New
EPS($)Old
P/E(X)
Dividendyield(%)
Netdebt/EBITDA(X)
EPS($)
1/2460,922.0
59,785.435,093.033,585.0
11.54
11.1834.50.0
0.1
1/24
4.76
1/25E116,787.8
106,053.975,345.573,747.5
25.35
23.4826.60.0
(0.5)
4/24E
5.35
1/26E134,755.7
122,168.086,928.385,250.3
30.32
27.9222.30.0
(0.9)
7/24E
5.82
1/27E146,781.8
--
94,732.692,974.6
34.16
--
19.80.0
(1.4)
10/24E
6.87
GSFactorProfile
Growth
FinancialReturns
Multiple
Integrated
Percentile20th40th60th80th100th
NVDArelativetoAmericasCoverage
NVDArelativetoAmericasSemiconductorsandSemiEquipment
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.
Seedisclosuresfordetails.
GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,
investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis
report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html
.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.
BuyCL
GoldmanSachs
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
RatingsinceFeb23,2023
Ratios&Valuation
P/E(X)
EV/EBITDA(X)
EV/sales(X)
FCFyield(%)
EV/DACF(X)
CROCI(%)
ROE(%)
Netdebt/EBITDA(X)
Netdebt/equity(%)
Interestcover(X)
Inventorydays
Receivabledays
Dayspayableoutstanding
1/24
34.5
28.0
16.2
2.8
30.7
66.4
88.4
0.1
5.6
132.7
118.3
41.4
44.1
1/25E
26.6
21.5
13.9
3.7
23.8
110.5
96.9
(0.5)
(39.8)
297.4
75.4
41.2
39.6
1/26E
22.3
17.8
11.5
4.9
19.8
118.3
67.2
(0.9)
(61.5)
343.8
70.5
43.4
37.8
1/27E
19.8 15.5 10.0 5.2 17.2121.1 50.6 (1.4)(69.8)374.9 68.546.0
37.2
Growth&Margins(%)
Totalrevenuegrowth
EBITDAgrowth
EPSgrowth
DPSgrowth
Grossmargin
EBITmargin
1/24
125.9345.7413.1 0.073.6
55.1
1/25E
91.7
114.7
119.7
0.0
75.7
63.1
1/26E
15.4
15.4
19.6
0.0
75.3
63.3
1/27E
8.99.012.70.075.3
63.3
PricePerformance
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
NVDA($)
Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
6m
43.7%
26.9%
3m
Absolute
Rel.totheS&P500
35.1%
23.1%
S&P500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
12m
226.7%162.1%
Source:FactSet.Priceasof21Feb2024close.
IncomeStatement($mn)
Totalrevenue
Costofgoodssold
SG&A
R&D
Otheroperatinginc./(exp.)
EBITDA
Depreciation&amortization
EBIT
Netinterestinc./(exp.)
Income/(loss)fromassociates
Pre-taxprofit
Provisionfortaxes
Minorityinterest
Preferreddividends
Netinc.(pre-exceptionals)
Netinc.(post-exceptionals)
EPS(basic,pre-except)($)
EPS(diluted,pre-except)($)
EPS(ex-ESOexp.,dil.)($)
DPS($)
Div.payoutratio(%)
Wtdavgsharesout.(basic)(mn)Wtdavgsharesout.(diluted)(mn)
1/24
60,922.0(16,105.0) (2,558.0)(8,674.0)
--
35,093.0
(1,508.0)
33,585.0
611.0
--
34,196.0
(5,433.0)
--
--
28,763.029,759.0 11.65 11.5412.96
0.16 1.42,469.32,493.1
1/25E
116,787.8
(28,399.9)
(3,212.7)
(11,427.7)
--
75,345.5
(1,598.0)
73,747.5
1,729.0
--
75,476.5
(12,831.0)
--
--
62,645.562,645.5 25.60 25.3527.08
0.16 0.62,448.32,471.4
1/26E
134,755.7(33,234.3) (3,570.6)(12,700.5)
--
86,928.3
(1,678.0)
85,250.3
3,802.0
--
89,052.3
(15,138.9)
--
--
73,913.473,913.4 30.62 30.3232.30
0.16 0.52,413.52,437.8
1/27E
146,781.8(36,194.9) (3,864.9)(13,747.4)
--
94,732.6
(1,758.0)
92,974.6
5,702.0
--
98,676.6
(16,775.0)
--
--
81,901.681,901.6 34.50 34.1636.42
0.16 0.52,375.22,397.7
BalanceSheet($mn)
Cash&cashequivalents
Accountsreceivable
Inventory
Othercurrentassets
Totalcurrentassets
NetPP&E
Netintangibles
Totalinvestments
Otherlong-termassets
Totalassets
Accountspayable
Short-termdebt
Currentleaseliabilities
Othercurrentliabilities
Totalcurrentliabilities
Long-termdebt
Non-currentleaseliabilities
Otherlong-termliabilities
Totallong-termliabilities
Totalliabilities
Preferredshares
Totalcommonequity
Minorityinterest
Totalliabilities&equity
BVPS($)
1/24
7,281.09,999.0 5,282.021,783.0
44,345.0
3,914.017,469.00.0
--
65,728.0
2,699.01,250.0
--
6,682.0
10,631.0
8,459.0
--
3,660.0
12,119.022,750.0
--
42,978.0
--
65,728.0
17.24
1/25E
44,132.916,343.86,455.021,783.0
88,714.7
3,716.017,469.00.0
--
109,899.7
3,461.51,250.0
--
6,682.0
11,393.5
8,459.0
--
3,660.0
12,119.023,512.5
--
86,387.2
--
109,899.7
34.96
1/26E
91,967.815,738.86,385.721,783.0
135,875.3
3,838.017,469.00.0
--
157,182.3
3,414.51,250.0
--
6,682.0
11,346.5
8,459.0
--
3,660.0
12,119.023,465.5
--
133,716.8
--
157,182.3
54.85
1/27E
142,155.121,294.37,207.021,783.0
192,439.4
3,880.017,469.00.0
--
213,788.4
3,968.31,250.0
--
6,682.0
11,900.3
8,459.0
--
3,660.0
12,119.024,019.3
--
189,769.1
--
213,788.4
79.15
CashFlow($mn)
Netincome
D&Aadd-back
Minorityinterestadd-back
Net(inc)/decworkingcapital
Others
Cashflowfromoperations
Capitalexpenditures
Acquisitions
Divestitures
Others
Cashflowfrominvesting
Dividendspaid
Shareissuance/(repurchase)
Inc/(dec)indebt
Others
Cashflowfromfinancing
Totalcashflow
Freecashflow
Freecashflowpershare(basic)($)
1/24
29,759.01,508.0
--
(4,516.0)1,340.0
28,091.0
(1,068.0)
--
--
(9,498.0)
(10,566.0)
(395.1)(9,533.0)
--
(3,705.9)
(13,634.0)3,891.0
27,023.010.94
1/25E
62,645.51,598.0
--
(6,755.3)5,155.4
62,643.6
(1,400.0)
--
--
--
(1,400.0)
(391.7)(24,000.0)
--
--
(24,391.7)36,851.9
61,243.625.01
1/26E
73,913.41,678.0
--
627.2
5,802.4
82,021.1
(1,800.0)
--
--
--
(1,800.0)
(386.2)(32,000.0)
--
--
(32,386.2)47,834.9
80,221.133.24
1/27E
81,901.61,758.0
--
(5,823.0)6,530.7
84,367.3
(1,800.0)
--
--
--
(1,800.0)
(380.0)(32,000.0)
--
--
(32,380.0)50,187.3
82,567.334.76
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.
22February20242
GoldmanSachs
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
inventorylevels.DataCenterrevenueof$18.4bnwasup27%qoqreflectinghigher
shipmentsoftheHopperGPUcomputingplatformaswellasstrengthinInfiniBand
networkingsolutions.ProfessionalVisualizationrevenueof$463mnwasup11%qoqand105%yoywithgrowthdrivenbystrongersell-infollowingnormalizationofchannelinventorylevels.Automotiverevenueof$281mnwasup8%qoq,drivenbysequentialgrowthinsalesofself-drivingplatforms.OEMandOtherrevenueof$90mnincreased23%qoqand7%yoy.Non-GAAPgrossmargin(excl.SBC)of76.7%wasup170bpsqoqandexceededguidanceby120bps.Non-GAAPEPS(excl.SBC)of$5.16was12%aboveFactSetconsensus.
Guidance:FY1Q(April)revenueguidanceof$24.0bn(+9%qoq,+234%yoy)atthe
mid-pointcamein8%aboveStreetconsensus.Managementexpectsgrowthinthe
quartertobedrivenprimarilybytheDataCenterbusinessandProfessionalVisualization,partiallyoffsetbyaseasonaldeclineinGaming.Non-GAAPgrossmargin(excl.SBC)
wasguidedto77.0%,non-GAAPopexto$2.5bn(+13%qoq),otherincomeand
expensesto~$250mn,andnon-GAAPtaxrateto17%.Basedonourcalculation,thisguidanceimpliesaFY1Qnon-GAAPEPS(excl.SBC)of~$5.41,whichis8%above
consensusestimatesheadingintotheprint.
Exhibit1:Actualsvs.Estimates
FY4Q24AFY1Q25E
($mnexceptpersharedata)
Actual
GSe
Cons.
vsGSe
vsCons.
Guidance
GSe
Cons.
vsGSe
vsCons.
Revenue
22,103
20,966
20,395
5%
8%
24,000
22,500
22,206
7%
8%
qoq
22%
16%
51%
--
--
9%
7%
9%
--
--
yoy
265%
246%
244%
--
--
234%
213%
209%
--
--
Segmentrevenue
Gaming
2,865
2,753
2,728
4%
5%
qoq
0%
-4%
10%
--
--
yoy
56%
50%
73%
--
--
Datacenter
18,404
17,417
17,062
6%
8%
qoq
27%
20%
65%
--
--
yoy
409%
382%
345%
--
--
ProVis
463
458
422
1%
10%
qoq
11%
10%
11%
--
--
yoy
105%
102%
111%
--
--
Automotive
281
261
275
8%
2%
qoq
8%
0%
9%
--
--
yoy
-4%
-11%
9%
--
--
PCOEM&Tegra
90
78
82
15%
9%
qoq
23%
7%
25%
--
--
yoy
7%
-7%
13%
--
--
Grossprofit
16,959
15,885
15,429
7%
10%
Grossmargin(exESO)
76.7%
75.8%
75.7%
1.0%
1.1%
77.0%
76.3%
74.4%
0.7%
2.6%
Opex(exESO)
2,210
2,213
2,268
-0.1%
-3%
2,500
2,374
2,142
5.3%
16.7%
Operatingprofit(exESO)
14,749
13,672
13,161
7.9%
12%
15,980
14,801
14,369
%ofrevenue
66.7%
65.2%
64.5%
1.5%
2.2%
66.6%
65.8%
64.7%
EPS(non-GAAPexESO)
$5.16
$4.80
$4.59
7%
12%
$5.41
$5.24
$5.02
3%
8%
qoq
28%
19%
70%
--
--
5%
9%
9%
--
--
yoy
487%
447%
688%
--
--
397%
381%
361%
--
--
Source:FactSet,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
KeyPositives/ConcernsandImplicationsfortheBroaderGroup
Positives:1)SignificantpresenceinInference:managementstatedthat,accordingtotheirestimationbasedoncustomerinput,roughly40%ofFY2024DataCentersegmentrevenuewasderivedfromInferenceworkloads.Weviewthisasasignificantpositiveasitrunscountertothelong-standingbearcaseonNvidia—thatis,thecompanyislesscompetitiveinInferencevis-a-visTraining.2)BroadeningofDataCenterdemand
profile:whileshipmentstothelargecloudserviceproviders(orCSPs)continueto
22February20243
representapproximately50%ofDataCentersegmentrevenue,management’s
commentarypointingtobroad-basedadoptionofGenAIacrossindustryverticals
includingHealthcare,FinancialServicesandAutomotivewasencouraging.Furthermore,webelievethesovereignAIopportunity,whichisimmaterialtoday,couldgrowintoa
meaningful(i.e.multi-billiondollar)opportunityoverthemedium-tolong-term.3)StringofnewproductscominginDataCenter:webelieveNvidia’sannualcadenceof
productlauncheswillserveasawin-winforNvidia(i.e.lesscycle-to-cyclevolatility+
accretivetoitscompetitivemoat)anditscustomers(i.e.morechoice,better
predictability).Inthenear-term,weexpectastringofnewproductintroductions,
includingtheH200(i.e.capableof2xtheinferenceperformancevs.theH100;fullrampexpectedinFY2Q),Spectrum-X(i.e.Ethernet-basedAINetworkingsolution;sampling
withcustomerstoday),andB100(i.e.next-generationDataCenterGPUplatform;detailslikelytocomeatGTC,butweexpectalate-2024orearly-2025volumeramp)aswellasimprovingsupply,augmentingwhatisalreadyarobustdemandbackdrop.4)Softwareexceeds$1bnannualizedrun-rate:managementsharedthatsoftwarerevenue
exceeded$1bnonanannualizedrun-ratebasisinFY4Q.Whileitisstillearlydays,weexpectgrowthinNvidia’ssoftwarebusinesstonotonlybeaccretivetocorporategrossmarginsbut,moreimportantly,itwillserveasatoolkitthathelpsthecompanyandthebroaderindustrydemocratizeAI,particularlyinEnterprise.5)SupplytogrowthroughtheendofCY2024:thecompanyreiterateditsexpectationforsupplytogrow
sequentiallyeveryquarterthroughoutthecalendaryear.WebelievethiswillhelpNvidiagrowrevenue,normalizeleadtimesand,inturn,removeanyexcessorderingonthepartofcustomers.6)Recordgrossmargin:drivenbyfavorablemix(i.e.higherrevenue
contributionfromDataCenter)andfavorablecomponentcosts,Nvidiareportedrecordnon-GAAPgrossmargin(excl.SBC)of76.7%inFY4QandguidedFY1Qnon-GAAP
grossmarginto77.0%atthemid-point.7)Investinginthefuture:NvidiareportedFY4Qopex(excl.SBC)of$2.2bn(+9%qoq,+25%yoy)andguidedFY1Qopex(excl.SBC)togrow13%qoqand43%yoyatthemid-point.Thiscompany’saggressive
spendingposture,inourview,indicatesnotonlymanagement’sconfidenceinthelong-termopportunityset,butalsoNvidia’sabilitytoattracttopengineeringtalent.
Exhibit2:Nvidia’sshareoftheDataCenterComputemarkethasgrownfrom~15%fiveyearsagoto~75%today
DataCenterComputeWalletShare
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
0%
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
NvidiaIntelAMD
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit3:WeexpectNvidia’sgrossmarginstoremainatabout75%throughoutourforecastperiod
Grossmarginexcl.SBC(%)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
22February20244
GoldmanSachs
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
($mn)
Exhibit4:Nvidiaranks3rdingrossmargins(TTM)withinourcoverageuniverse
Grossmargins(TTM)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
ARM
AVGO
NVDA
ADI
MCHP
TXN
KLAC
MRVL
CRDO
NXPI
TER
PI
AMD
COHU
SWKS
AMAT
ON
LRCX
QRVO
ENTG
INTC
STX
ARW
AVT
WDC
MU
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit6:...andspent42%morethanAMDbut48%lessthanIntelin2023
Annualopex(incl.SBC)-2018-2023
Exhibit5:Nvidiahasincreasedopexby2.3xoverthelast5years...
Annualopex(incl.SBC)indexed-2018-2023
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
201820192020202120222023
NVDAAMDINTC
Source:Companydata
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
201820192020202120222023
NVDAAMDINTC
Source:Companydata
22February2024
Concerns:1)SustainabilityofDataCenterstrength:thenear-termoutlookforData
CenterremainsstrongasweincreaseourFY2025/26segmentrevenueestimatesyetagainby12%/14%,respectively,onstrengthening/broadeningGenAIdemandand
improvingsupply.Thatsaid,aswehavewitnessedinthepast,wearecognizantofthecyclicality/lumpinessinherenttocapitalspendingpatternsattheCSPs,inparticular,andwouldbegintoquestionsustainabilityshouldNvidia’scustomersfailtomonetize
ongoinginvestmentsinGenAI.2)SharelossinChinaDataCenter:management
notedthatChinaDataCenterrevenuedeclinedsignificantlyonasequentialbasisin
FY4Qandthatitwasexpectedtorepresentmid-singledigit(%)ofsegmentrevenue—similartoFY4Q—inFY1Q.RecallChinausedtoaccountfor~25%ofsegmentrevenueaheadoftheupdatedexportcontrolsannouncedin4QCY23.
EstimateUpdate
WeincreaseourFY2025/26revenueestimatesby10%,aswereflectcontinued
strengthinthecoreDataCenterbusiness.OurFY2025/26non-GAAPEPS(excl.SBC)estimatesincrease8%from$25.20/$29.88to$27.08/$32.30,respectively,onhigher
5
GoldmanSachs
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
22February2024
6
revenue,partiallyoffsetbyslightlylowergrossmarginsandaslightlyhighertax-rate.WealsointroduceFY2027estimates(yoyrevenuegrowthof9%andnon-GAAPEPS[excl.SBC]of$36.42)withthisnote.
Exhibit7:WeincreaseFY2025/26non-GAAPEPS(excl.SBC)estimatesby8%andintroduceFY2027estimates
FY27
Old
%Change
NVDANewvs.Old
FY25FY26
($mnexceptpersharedata)NewOld%Change
NewOld%Change
New
Revenue
116,788
106,054
10.1%
134,756
122,168
10.3%
146,782
GrossMargin(%)
75.7%
76.2%
-0.6%
75.3%
76.2%
-0.8%
75.3%
OperatingMargin(%)
63.1%
62.5%
0.7%
63.3%
62.7%
0.6%
63.3%
EPS
$27.08
$25.20
7.5%
$32.30
$29.88
8.1%
$36.42
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
PriceTargetMethodologyandKeyRisks
Ourupdated12-monthpricetargetof$875(upfrom$800)isbasedon50x(unchanged)ournormalizedEPSestimateof$17.50(upfrom$16.00prioronahigherpeakEPS
estimate).Noteourupdatedpricetargetof$875impliesa27xmultipleonourupdatedFY2026(orCY2025)non-GAAPEPS(excl.SBC)estimateof$32.30.Keydownsideriskstoourestimatesandpricetargetinclude:1)cyclicalityindatacenterspendbycloud
hyperscalersand/orenterprisesonaquarterly/annualbasis;2)lossofmarketshareinDataCenterGPUs;3)worse-than-expecteddemandforGamingGPUs;4)further
tighteningofChinaexportrestrictions,5)delaysinnewproductintroductionsandtheirimpactonrevenueandprofitability,and6)supplychainissues.
GoldmanSachs
NvidiaCorp.(NVDA)
DisclosureAppendix
RegAC
We,ToshiyaHari,AnmolMakkar,TrevorJanoskie,ChrisKressandDavidBalaban,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities.Wealsocertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.
Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.
GSFactorProfile
TheGoldmanSachsFactorProfileprovidesinvestmentcontextforastockbycomparingkeyattributestothemarket(i.e.ourcoverageuniverse)anditssectorpeers.Thefourkeyattributesdepictedare:Growth,FinancialReturns,Multiple(e.g.valuation)andIntegrated(acompositeofGrowth,FinancialReturnsandMultiple).Growth,FinancialReturnsandMultiplearecalculatedbyusingnormalizedranksforspecificmetricsforeachstock.The
normalizedranksforthemetricsarethenaveragedandconvertedintopercentilesfortherelevantattribute.Theprecisecalculationofeachmetricmayvarydependingonthefiscalyear,industryandregion,butthestandardapproachisasfollows:
Growthisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingsalesgrowth,EBITDAgrowthandEPSgrowth(forfinancialstocks,onlyEPSandsalesgrowth),withahigherpercentileindicatingahighergrowthcompany.FinancialReturnsisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingROE,ROCEandCROCI(forfinancial
stocks,onlyROE),withahigherpercentileindicatingacompanywithhigherfinancialreturns.Multipleisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingP/E,P/B,price/dividend(P/D),EV/EBITDA,EV/FCFandEV/DebtAdjustedCashFlow(DACF)(forfinancialstocks,onlyP/E,P/BandP/D),withahigherpercentileindicatingastocktradingatahighermultiple.TheIntegratedpercentileiscalculatedastheaverageoftheGrowthpercentile,FinancialReturns
percentileand(100%-Multiplepercentile).
FinancialReturnsandMultipleusetheGoldmanSachsanalystforecastsatthefiscalyear-endatleastthreequartersinthefuture.Growthusesinputsforthefiscalyearatleastsevenquartersinthefuturecomparedwiththeyearatleastthreequartersinthefuture(onaper-sharebasisforallmetrics).
ForamoredetaileddescriptionofhowwecalculatetheGSFactorProfile,pleasecontactyourGSrepresentative.
M&ARank
Acrossourglobalcoverage,weexaminestocksusinganM&Aframework,consideringbothqualitativefactorsandquantitativefactors(whichmayvaryacrosssectorsandregions)toincorporatethepotentialthatcertaincompaniescouldbeacquired.WethenassignaM&Arankasameansofscoringcompaniesunderourratedcoveragefrom1to3,with1representinghigh(30%-50%)probabilityofthecompanybecominganacquisitiontarget,2
representingmedium(15%-30%)probabilityand3representinglow(0%-15%)probability.Forcompaniesranked1or2,inlinewithourstandarddepartmentalguidelinesweincorporateanM&Acomponentintoourtargetprice.M&Arankof3isconsideredimmaterialandthereforedoesnotfactorintoourpricetarget,andmayormaynotbediscussedinresearch.
Quantum
QuantumisGoldmanSachs’proprietarydatabaseprovidingaccesstodetailedfinancialstatementhistories,forecastsandratios.Itcanbeusedforin-depthanalysisofasinglecompany,ortomakecomparisonsbetweencompaniesindifferentsectorsandmarkets.
Disclosures
Therating(s)forNvidiaCorp.is/arerelativetotheothercompaniesinits/theircoverageuniverse:ARMHoldings,AdvancedMicroDevicesInc.,AnalogDevicesInc.,AppliedMaterialsInc.,ArrowElectronicsInc.,AvnetInc.,BroadcomInc.,CohuInc.,CredoTechnologyGroup,EntegrisInc.,ImpinjInc.,IntelCorp.,IonQInc.,KLACorp.,LamResearchCorp.,MarvellTechnologyInc.,MicrochipTechnologyInc.,MicronTechnologyInc.,NXP
SemiconductorsNV,NvidiaCorp.,ONSemiconductorCorp.,QorvoInc.,SeagateTechnology,SkyworksSolutionsInc.,TeradyneInc.,TexasInstrumentsInc.,WesternDigitalCorp.
Company-specificregulatorydisclosures
ThefollowingdisclosuresrelatetorelationshipsbetweenTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.(withitsaffiliates,“GoldmanSachs”)andcompaniescoveredbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchandreferredtointhisresearch.
GoldmanSachshasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesinthepast12months:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)
GoldmanSachsexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesinthenext3months:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)GoldmanSachshasreceivedcompensationfornon-investmentbankingservicesduringthepast12months:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)
GoldmanSachshadaninvestmentbankingservicesclientrelationshipduringthepast12monthswith:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)
GoldmanSachshadanon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedservicesclientrelationshipduringthepast12monthswith:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)GoldmanSachshadanon-securitiesservicesclientrelationshipduringthepast12monthswith:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)
GoldmanSachsmakesamarketinthesecuritiesorderivativesthereof:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)
GoldmanSachsisaspecialistintherelevantsecuritiesandwillatanygiventimehaveaninventoryposition,“long”or“short,”andmaybeontheoppositesideofordersexecutedontherelevantexchange:NvidiaCorp.($674.72)
Distributionofratings/investmentbankingrelationships
GoldmanSachsInvestmentResearchglobalEquitycoverageuniverse
Global
RatingDistribution
Sell
Buy
Hold
48%
35%
17%
InvestmentBankingRelationships
Sell
Buy
Hold
62%
55%
43%
AsofJanuary1,2024,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchhadinvestmentratingson2,961equitysecurities.GoldmanSachsassignsstocksasBuysandSellsonvariousregionalInvestmentLists;stocksnotsoassignedaredeemedNeutral.SuchassignmentsequatetoBuy,HoldandSellfor
22Febru
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