GEP：2024年采购与供应链趋势洞见研究报告（英文版）

02

03

11

23

01

INTRODUCTION

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

GLOBALBUSINESSANDMACROECONOMICTRENDSFOR2024

Inflation:AGradualRollback

GDP:SluggishGrowthPersists

InterestRates:ACauseforConcern

Labor:MarketsStillTightbutEasing

Energy:ContinuingOnaHigh

SEVENLEADERSHIPTHEMESFOR2024

SupplyChainReinvented:CraftingaResilientFutureStrategy

TheIntriguingPotentialofArtificialIntelligence

InvestinginaDigital,AI-FirstFuture

TheFutureofSupplierRelationshipManagementintheDigitalEra

ProcurementandFinance:PartnersinCostManagement

SustainableSuccess:ESGBackintheSpotlight

TalentCrunch:OvercomingthePeopleCrisis

CONCLUSION

24

NOTES

GEPOutlook2024

1

INTRODUCTION

AmidStress,StabilityEmerges

Thepastfouryearshavebeenanythingbutuneventful.Businesses—evenentiresocieties—havebeen

pushedtothebrink.WhilerecentdisasterssuchastheCOVID-19pandemicaremostlyintherearviewmirror,oldproblems,includingwar,loomominously.

Someconcernsarestartingtodissipate.Inflation

levelsappeartobeheadedbacktorecenthistorical

averages.Interestrateswilllikelybeginareductioncurvethroughout2024.ThejobmarketsofG7economiesareanticipatedtobecomemorebalanced.

Somenewdazzlingtoolshavepresentedthemselves

toleadingfirms.Digitalandartificialintelligence(AI)

technologiestookabigleapin2023andareexpectedtotakeanevenbiggeronein2024.

Abitofbreathingspacehasemerged.Procurementandsupplychainleaderscan,finally,lookalittlefurtheroutintothefutureandbegintomakelonger-termplansthanwerepossibleintherecentchallengingyears.

Featuringheavilywillbeinvestmentsinbigdataandincreatingrealimpactfromthelargedatasetsthat

companiesaccumulatebutdon’talwaysmanage.While

laggardswillwaitformarketsolutionstodevelop,leaders

willgainasymmetricimpactbyapplyingnewtechnologiestooldbusinessproblemsastheytakethefirststeps.

Supplychains,whichhaveexperiencedtumultuoustimes,havelargelystabilizedandleadersarereinvestingintheir

futurestrategy.Beyondupgradingresiliencyandevaluatingreshoring,theseleadingbusinessesarealsothinkingaboutenablingtheirenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)goalsandcreatingaprovocativenewapproachtosupplierrelationshipmanagement.

With24yearsofexperiencemanagingover$300billioninspendannuallyforFortune500andGlobal2000

businesses,ourfirmofaccomplishedconsultantsand

technologyadvisorsoffersvaluableperspectivestohelpbusinessleaderschartasuccessful2024.

TheGEPOutlook2024:Procurement&SupplyChainreportcoverstheleadingtopicsandprioritiesthatwilldominatethecorporateagendain2024.

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GEPOutlook2024

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Problemsandprioritiesin2024havechangedfromthoseofrecentyears.Procurementandsupplychainleaders,whohavebeentaskedwithmuchmoreresponsibility

andaccountabilitysincethepandemic,willseeashiftintheirfocusasglobalgrowthslows,particularlyinChina,theworld’ssecond-largesteconomy.AlthoughinterestratesstubbornlyremainhighinG7economies,there

ishopeforreductionsonthehorizonascentralbanksconfrontslowinggrowth.

SupplyChainVolatility(Finally)Declines

Supplychainsbecameahouseholddiscussiontopicasglobalcompanieswadedthroughsupplyandserviceschallenges.Entering2024,thesituationhasimprovedandthereismeaningfulsupplychaincapacity,with

issuescausedbytransportcosts,staffshortagesanditemshortagesimprovingoverrecentyears.

DigitalandArtificialIntelligenceArrive

Despitetheriskofbeingcrushedbyitsownhype,AI

andotherdigitaltechnologiesbecomeactionableand

compellingformostprocurementandsupplychain

leadersin2024.Theusecasesarestartingtotakeholdandsignificantbenefitslookachievableinthenextyearandnearlycertaininthelongterm.

Gettingitright,however,willtakemoreworkthanis

commonlyrealized.Withdataasthefoundation,leaderswillneedtocultivateastrategythatenhancestheir

teams,createstrustandoffersasuperiortechnology

strategythanbefore.Thechangemanagementeffortrequiredmayrivalthescaleandcomplexityofcrisis-responseCOVID-19initiatives.

ESGIsBackintheSpotlight

ManyfirmssloweddowntheirESGtimelinesor

commitmentsin2023amidotherpriorities,including

inflationmitigation.LeadersarenowputtingESGback

ontheagendaandturningtoprocurementandsupply

chaintotakethenextbigleap.Thisinturnwilldrivea

needtopartnerwithfinanceandotherfunctionsinamoremeaningfulwaythanbefore.

EvolutionofTalentStrategy

Meetingtheseemergingrequirementswillprompta

majorre-evaluationoftalentacquisitionanddevelopment

strategiesin2024.Despiteanticipatedslowergrowth

ratesin2024,labormarketsinmostmajoreconomies

remaintightwithsome,liketheUnitedStatesofAmerica,

continuingtoseelowunemploymentrates.Procurement

andsupplychainleadersfacesignificantchallengesintheireffortstoattract,trainandretainemployees.

NewemployeeswillneedskillsinemergingprioritiessuchasESG,AIanddigitalwhilealsodemonstratingproficiencyinthetraditionalareasofcostefficiencyandresilience.Thisisatallask.In2024,wewillseeprocurementandsupply

chainleadersmakemajorcommitmentstogettheirtalentstrategyright.

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GEPOutlook2024

GLOBALBUSINESSANDMACROECONOMICTRENDSFOR2024

Globalrecoveryisexpectedtobesluggishandunevenin2024afterageneralslowdownin2023.Economic

activityremainsbelowpre-pandemiclevelsinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomi

es.1

China’sgrowth,

impactedbyarealestatecrisisanddiminishingdomesticandexternaldemand,isforecasttodeceleratein2024.GiventhatChinacontributestooverathirdofglobalgrow

th,2a

slowdownmayhaverepercussionsbeyonditsborders,especiallyonitsmajortradingpartners.

Economicgrowthalsofacesheadwindsfromhighinterestrates,theRussia-Ukraineconflict,risinggeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEast,crudeoilproductioncutsandtheaftereffectsofthepandemic.

Inflation:AGradualRollback

Inflation,whichreachedmultidecadehighsin2022dueinparttotheRussia-Ukraineconflict,isdecliningentering2024.Globalinflationisforecasttofallfrom6.88%in2023to5.79%in20

24.3I

ntheU.S.andEuroArea,inflationratesareexpectedtocontinuetheirdownwardtrajectorythrough2024butmaynotachievetheircentralbanks’

targetof2%until2025.

InflationTrends2023:MonthlyPercentageChange

10.1%

6.7%

8.6%

6.5%

6.4%

4.3%

3.7%

5.0%

4.3%

3.2%

0%

Aug-23Sep-23

JAPAN

2.1%

Jan-23Feb-23

US

Mar-23Apr-23May-23

UKEUROAREA

Jun-23

CHINA

Jul-23

INDIA

Source:FinancialTimes'GlobalInflationTracker,GEPAnalysis

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GEPOutlook2024

IntheU.S.,inflationisprojectedtoaverage4.08%in2023anddecreaseto2.76%in2024.IntheEuroArea,it

isanticipatedtoaverage5.55%in2023andreduceto3.25%in2024,higherthanpre-pandemiclevels.Inflation,whichstarteddecliningin2023,isestimatedtodipfurthermainlyduetohighinterestrates.

Chinaisfacingchallengescontrollingdeflationarypressures.Itreportedapersistentdecreaseinboththe

ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)andtheProducerPriceIndex(PPI)inthelatterpartof2023.Inresponse,theChinese

governmentistakingcounter-cyclicalmeasurestoboostdomesticdemand,increasespendingandstabilizeeconomicgrowth.

InflationTrends:AnnualPercentageChange(HistoricandProjected)

Projections

Country/RegionalClassification

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Global

4.70

8.71

6.88

5.79

4.62

AdvancedEconomies

3.10

7.27

4.63

2.96

2.24

UnitedStates

4.68

7.98

4.08

2.76

2.43

UnitedKingdom

5.38

10.52

5.20

2.37

2.00

EuroArea

2.59

8.38

5.55

3.25

2.16

Japan

-0.23

2.49

3.21

2.88

1.94

EmergingandDevelopingAsia

2.21

3.81

2.61

2.74

2.86

ASEAN-5

2.00

4.81

3.58

2.54

2.44

China

0.85

1.88

0.66

1.69

2.16

India

5.51

6.66

5.46

4.55

4.09

MiddleEastandCentralAsia

12.77

13.99

18.01

15.17

10.55

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

9.76

13.99

13.83

10.73

7.35

Sub-SaharanAfrica

11.03

14.49

15.75

13.12

9.40

Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2023,IMF

InfluencingFactorsfor2024

Continued

Russia-Ukraine

conflict

OPEC+

cutsinoilproduction

Rising

geopoliticaltensionsinMiddleEast

Weaklabormarkets

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GEPOutlook2024

GDP:SluggishGrowthPersists

Globalgrowthisexpectedtofallfrom3.48%in2022to2.96%in2023and2.94%in2024asaneffectofhighinterestratesandgeopoliticaltensions.However,in2024,economicgrowthintheEuroAreaisexpectedto

reboundto1.23%,upfrom0.66%in2023,asinflationcontinuestodrop.

GDPGrowth:AnnualPercentageChange(HistoricandProjected)

Projections

Country/RegionalClassification

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Global

6.34

3.48

2.96

2.94

3.19

AdvancedEconomies

5.58

2.63

1.53

1.45

1.83

UnitedStates

5.95

2.06

2.08

1.47

1.81

UnitedKingdom

7.60

4.10

0.48

0.64

1.98

EuroArea

5.62

3.33

0.66

1.23

1.80

Japan

2.23

1.04

1.95

1.03

0.65

EmergingandDevelopingAsia

7.48

4.48

5.16

4.82

4.85

ASEAN-5

3.96

5.46

4.17

4.47

4.54

China

8.45

2.99

5.40

4.60

4.11

India

9.05

7.24

6.33

6.29

6.33

MiddleEastandCentralAsia

4.25

5.56

2.04

3.37

3.89

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

7.35

4.14

2.32

2.29

2.38

Sub-SaharanAfrica

4.73

3.99

3.34

3.98

4.14

Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2023,IMF

ThegrowthrateintheU.S.ispoisedtodipfrom2.08%in2023to1.47%in2024duetosluggishwagegrowth,spikinghouseholddebtandapotentialshallowrecession.

InAsia,Indiaisexpectedtomaintaingrowthin2024,drivenbyresilientdomesticdemandandstronginvestmentinflows.China’spost-pandemicrecoveryhasbeenstrong,butit’snowhereclosetothecountry’spastaverage

growthof~10%.In2024,Chinaisanticipatedtoslowto4.60%,downfrom5.40%in2023.

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GEPOutlook2024

Japan’seconomycontractedinQ32023comparedtotheprevioustwoquarters,withdataindicatingthatsofteningprivateconsumptionandslowingglobaldemandwerehurtingtheeconomy.Afterareboundin2023,Japan’sGDPisexpectedtoslipto1.03%in2024.

InfluencingFactorsfor2024

Sluggishgrowthinwagerate

Risinginterest

ratestotame

inflation

Prolongedcrisisin

China’srealestate

market

GeopoliticaltensionsinMiddleEast

Continued

Russia-Ukraine

war

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GEPOutlook2024

InterestRates:ACauseforConcern

Manymajorcentralbanksraisedinterestratestorecordlevelsoverthepasttwoyearstocombatinflation,buttheyareexpectedtolowerthemin2024duetoslowereconomicgrowthandtheirimpactonborrowingcosts.

TheBankofEnglandpausedratehikesinlate2023withinterestatarecordhighof5.25%,thoughinflation

remainsabovethe2%target.Marketpredictionsarethatthecentralbankwilllikelystartcuttinginterestratesbythesecondhalfof2024tocurtailnegativeeconomicgrow

th.4

RevvingUpInterestRates

SEPTEMBER2023

SEPTEMBER2022

6.50%

5.25%

5.00%

5.25%

2.25%

4.75%

5.90%

India

3.25%

3.00%

US

Canada

UK1.50%

EuroArea

US:Canada:

UK:EuroArea:

India:

+225bps+175bps

+300bps+325bps

+60bps

Source:FederalReserveEconomicData,TradingEconomics,GEPAnalysis

In2023,theU.S.FederalReservemaintainedratesat5.25%to5.50%,acumulativeincreaseof225basispointsoveraone-yearperiod.Ratesare,however,expectedtostartgoingdowngraduallyin202

4.5

IntheEuroArea,highenergypricesandfoodinflationpromptedanaggregaterateincreaseof320basispointsin

2023.However,thisongoingcycleofratehikesisexpectedtostop.

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GEPOutlook2024

Long-TermInterestAnnualRates:TrendsandForecast

Long-TermInterestRatesForecastonQuarterlyBasis

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00

>

2021202220232024

JapanEuroAreaUK

USIndia

4.90

4.90

4.60

4.45

4.00

3.90

3.90

3.80

4.15

3.70

3.66

3.66

3.66

3.66

3.66

0.650.650.650.770.89

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2023

2024

2024

2024

2024

JapanEuroAreaUKUS

Source:OECD

Labor:MarketsStillTightbutEasing

Theglobaleconomyisslowingbutconcernsofaseveredownturnandriseinunemploymenthaveeased.

IntheU.S.,employmentshowedrobustgrowthin2023andtheunemploymentrateisexpectedtobe3.57%,downfrom3.62%in2022.Similarly,intheEuroArea,theunemploymentratefellsharplyinAugust2023toitslowest

levelat6.40%sincemid-20

21,6d

espitetheRussia-Ukrainewarandinflation.

InAugusttoOctober2023,theestimatednumberofvacanciesintheU.K.fellby5.7%onthequarter,markingthe16thconsecutiveperiodofdecli

ne.7

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GEPOutlook2024

UnemploymentRateTrends:AnnualPercentageChange(HistoricandProjected)

Projected

Country/RegionalClassification

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

AdvancedEconomies

5.61

4.49

4.44

4.60

4.54

UnitedStates

5.37

3.62

3.57

3.85

3.89

UnitedKingdom

4.47

3.70

4.20

4.64

4.32

EuroArea

7.72

6.73

5.60

6.53

6.38

OtherAdvancedEconomies(excludingG7)

4.34

3.48

3.44

3.76

3.81

Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2023,IMF

TheimpactofAIonthelabormarketisacomplexmatter:itcouldbothcreatenewjobsanddisplaceworkers,

thoughin2024,it’snotyetexpectedtohaveasignificantimpact.AsorganizationsincreasinglyadoptAI,itseffectwillbecomemoreapparent.TheWorldEconomicForum’sTheFutureofJobsReport2023anticipateschangeand

disruptioninthelabormarket:Employers(803respondentcompanies)expect23%ofjobstochangeinthenextfiveyearsduetoAIadoption—agrowthof69millionjobsandadeclineof83millionjo

bs.8

InfluencingFactorsfor2024

Economic

slowdown

duetohigh

interestrates

Technological

advancementsin

businesses

Irregular

supply-demand

patternsthatreduce

industrialoutput

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GEPOutlook2024

Energy:ContinuingOnaHigh

Crudeoilpricesaveraged$82-$85perbarrelin2023,down~20%from2022wheneconomicgrowth,supplychainconstraintsandtheRussia-Ukrainewarshotupprices.However,oilpricescontinuetoremainhigherthanthe2019averageof~$64perbarrel.In2024,oilpricesareexpectedtobeelevatedat$90-$95perbarrelduetoOPEC+

productioncutsandgeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEast

.9

CrudeOilPrices(USDPerBarrel)

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

BrentoilandWTIpricesroseover4%to ~$91perbarreland$86perbarrel, respectively,aftertheIsrael-Hamaswarbeganandhaveremainedvolatileeversince.

90.9

88.2

ForecastPeriod

85.8

84.1

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Q12020

Q22020

Q32020

Q42020

Q12021

Q22021

Q32021

Q42021

Q12022

Q22022

Q32022

Q42022

Q12023

Q22023

Q32023

Q42023

Q12024

Q22024

Q32024

Q42024

Q42019

WestTexasIntermediateSpotAverageBrentSpotAverage

Source:EIA,GEPAnalysis

Alessseverewinter,higher-than-expectedinventoryinEuropeandrecordproductionintheU.S.subduednatural

gaspricesin2023.Goingforward,naturalgaspricesareexpectedtostabilizeasgasusageforpowergeneration

decreases,renewablesgainmarketshare,nuclearoutputincreasesandeconomicpressuresaffectconsumpti

on.10

InfluencingFactorsfor2024

Further

productioncuts

byOPEC+

Finland-Estonia

gaspipeline

leak

Escalationof

geopolitical

tensionsin

MiddleEast

Demand-supply

variationsdueto

changing

weatherpatterns

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11

GEPOutlook2024

SEVENLEADERSHIPTHEMESFOR2024

1|SupplyChainReinvented:CraftingaResilientFutureStrategy

Theupheavalinglobalsupplychainsinrecentyearsiswelldocumented.Manysupplychainsfacedbreakdownsanddisruptions.Somemanagedtowithstandthestrainbutlackedthecapacitytocraftaforward-lookingstrategy.Just-in-timesupplychainsfelloutoffavorandslow-movingreshoringtrendsrapidlyaccelerated.Offeringsome

relief,in2023,muchofthesupplychainvolatilitybegantoease.Logisticscostsmoderated.Thecrisisbroughtonbyshortageofpartsandinputmaterialsabated.

Supplychainleadersfinallyhavesomebreathingroomin2024—torethinkandreinventtheirstrategies,afteraprolongedspateofdisruptions.Recognizingthatthisisn’tatimeforcomplacency,leadersaremovingswiftlytoaction.

SupplyChainVolatilityDeclines

GEP’sGlobalSupplyChainVolatilityInd

ex,11

inpartnershipwithS&PGlobal,isaleadingindicatorthattracks

demandconditions,shortages,transportationcosts,inventoriesandbacklogs.Throughout2023,demandsoftenedandmajorsupplychainissuescausedbytransportcosts,staffshortagesanditemshortageslargelydissipated.

Entering2024,theglobalsupplychainhassomecapacity,especiallyinEurope.Andpolicymakersaremaintainingacautiousoutlookoneconomicgrowth.Itpresentsanexcellentopportunityforsupplychainleaderstolaythe

groundworkfortheirsupplychainofthefuture.

DeglobalizationofSupplyChains

SinceChina’saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)inDecember2001,globaltradehasgrownatanastonishingpace.TheWTOcalculatestheglobaltradevaluetohavequadrupledoverthepast20year

s,12c

reatingintegratedsupplychainnetworksacrosstheworld.

Muchhaschanged.Consumersnowholdcompaniesaccountablefortheirentiresupplychainsandareasking

toughquestionsabouttheiradherencetoESGgoals.Authoritarianregimesperpetratingviolenceandhumanrightsabusescauseamisalignmentbetweenpoliticalandcorporatevalues.Extremeweathereventspersistgloballyandpoliticalinstabilitycontinuestoaffectvariousregions.Leadersalsovividlyrememberthechallengesoflonglead-

timesupplychainsandthelackofredundanciesduringsupplyshortages.

Newmodelsareemerging.“ChinaPlusOne”isgainingtractionbecauseitrecognizesthelimitationsofthe

China-onlyproductionmodelastheChineseeconomyevolves.“Friendshoring”isanotheremergingstrategythatattemptstoalignthesupplychainnetworkunderacommonvaluesystem.Neitheristhedefinitiveanswer,buttheyshowthewillingnessofsupplychainexecutivestoseekanewfundamentalmodel.

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GEPOutlook2024

EssentialFocusAreasforSupplyChains

Logisticsdisruptionssustainability

optimizeworkingcapital

combatinflation

Buildresiliencetomitigatedisruptions

Reducecosts

cyberattackssupplychaindisruptionrisks

29%19%27%19%5%

25%26%30%12%6%

25%27%27%15%6%

25%30%32%9%3%

21%25%31%16%7%

21%29%31%16%3%

17%34%29%16%4%

16%30%32%18%4%

%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

1-MostImportant2345-LeastImportant

Source:TheStateofSupplyChainSustainability2023,basedonasurveyof250supplychainexecutivesfromdifferentorganizationsandindustries,conductedin2023

GettingItRight

1.RevolutionorEvolution?

Theconceptofa“newnormal”hasbeenbandiedaboutinrecentyears,buttherealityisthat2020,2021,2022

and2023havebeenfourverydifferentyears.Whichamongtheseisrepresentativeofthefuture?OrdotheyearsprecedingtheCOVID-19pandemicpresentamoreaccuratepicture?Leadersmustfightthetemptationtobelievethattheworldisrevertingtoa“globalmeannorm”andthecorporategroupthinkthataccompaniesit.Theymust

recognizetheneedforanewmodel.

2.Cost,Resiliencyand…?

Supplychainsfundamentallyaimforcostefficientflowofgoodsandservices.Resiliencyisnowwidelyacceptedasnearlyasimportantascost.ESGgoalsnowholdequalweightfortheC-suite,andsupplychainleadersmustleadtheway.Thetoppriorityin2024istoredefinesupplychaincostinordertobalanceresiliencyandESGpriorities

withcost.

3.InvestmentPlansWithaDifferentCostStructure

In2024,thecostofcapitalformostcompaniesinG7economiessitswellaboverecentnorms.Supplychain

executivessimplycan’texpecttheopencheckbooktheywouldhavehadafewyearsago.AndtheROIoncapitalwillbescrutinizedmorecarefully.Leaderswillfindwaystoinvestinsupplychainassets,includingoptingfornewdigitalpartnersinsteadoffundingmassiveERPinvestments.

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GEPOutlook2024

2|TheIntriguingPotentialofArtificialIntelligence

CanAIpossiblyliveuptothehype?In2023,momentumonAI-powereddigitaltoolsreachedafeverpitch.The

advancementsinlargelanguagemodels(LLMs)andtoolslikeChatGPTsenttheindustryintoafrenzy.In2024

andbeyond,thetechnologylandscapewillcontinuetoevolveatarapidpaceanditwillbeincreasinglychallengingtoseparatehypefromhope.

Ithasbecomeveryclearthatthefutureofnext-generationprocurementandsupplychaintoolswillbedrivenbybigdatacapabilitiesandenabledthroughmachinelearningandAIanalysis.Chat-basedgenerativeAIinterfaces,whichcanutilizevastamountsofunstructureddata,havemadeAIusedemocraticandscalableforthefirsttime.Thetheoreticalbecameactionable.

IntegratingAIChatbotsIntoSupplyChainOperations

35%

VP+titles47%

Directors/ManagingDirectors28%

30%

22%

9%

65%

Expecttheirorganizations

willintegrateanAI

chatbotintosupplychain

operationsoverthe

next12months

4%

Within6monthsWithin12monthsWithin2yearsNoplansto

integrateanAIchatbot

Havealready

integratedanAI

chatbot

Source:DigitalSupplyChainModernizationsur