渠道破局：中国消费品市场的机会和挑战（2025年中国购物者报告系列二）（英文）

AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGChinaShopperReport2025,vol.2AuthorsandacknowledgmentsBrunoLannesisaseniorpartnerwithBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesandisbasedinShanghai.Youcancontacthimbyemailatbruno.lannes@.DerekDengisaseniorpartnerwithBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesinGreaterChinaandisbasedinShanghai.Youcancontacthimbyemailatderek.deng@.RachelLeeisthegeneralmanagerofWorldpanelChina.YoucancontactherbyemailatRachel.lee@.ThisreportisajointeffortbetweenBain&CompanyandWorldpanel.Theauthorsextendgratitudetoallwhocontributedtoit,especiallyMonicaLi,RanqiLiu,KellyWong,YiZhang,JoanneXie,LouiseLu,andHaydenLeefromBain;aswellasTinaQinandSallianHefromWorldpanel.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&CompanyandWorldpanelandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&CompanyandWorldpanel.Copyright©2025Bain&Company,Inc.andWorldpanel.Allrightsreserved.Worldpanel|Bain&Company,Inc.1AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGContentsExecutivesummary 2Alookbackonthefirstthreequartersof2025 3Categoryupdate:Packagedfood,homecare,andpersonalcaresustaingrowthwhilebeveragedownturndeepens 6Pricingupdate:Deflationarytrendcontinuedbutshowedsignsofslowingafteranaccelerationin2024 Decodingemergingchanneldynamics Implicationsforbrands 252AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGExecutivesummaryThisisthe14thconsecutiveyearwehavetrackedtheshoppingbehaviorsofChineseconsumers.Ourongoingresearchprovidesalong-termperspectiveon27categoriesoffast-movingconsumergoods(FMCG)purchasedforhomeconsumptioninChina.Thesecategoriesspanthefourmajorsectorsofpackagedfood,beverage,personalcare,andhomecare,reflectingtheevolvingdynamicsofChina’sFMCGmarket.Inthisyear’sVolume2report,weprovideupdatesonthefollowingtwotopics,followedbytheimplicationsforbrands:•Topic1:OverallFMCGmarketperformance,categories,andpricinginChinaforthefirstthreequartersof2025(year-to-date[YTD]Q3)•Topic2:In-depthchanneldynamicsshapingnear-termgrowthtrajectoriesAfteraweak2024,China’sFMCGmarketshowedsignsofstabilizationin2025.TotalFMCGspendinggrew+1.3%YTDQ3,supportedby+3.8%volumegrowthanda—2.4%declineinaveragesellingprice(ASP).AfterastrongQ1(+2.7%yearoveryear),FMCGgrowthmoderatedto+0.7%inQ2and+0.4%inQ3.Consumersentimentremainedlukewarm,despitecontinuouspolicysupport.Lower-tiercities(Tiers3–5)accountedforroughly80%ofmarketexpansion,drivenbycontinuedurbanization,deeperbrandpenetration,andgreateraccesstoemergingchannelssuchassnackcollectionstoresandonlinetooffline(O2O).Thesemarketsalsobenefitfromrelativelylowerlivingcostscomparedwithhigh-tiercities,furthersupportingconsumptiongrowth.Meanwhile,Tier1–2citiesremainedflatamidslowermacrorecoveryandconsumptiondowngrading.Acrosssectors,packagedfood(+3.4%)andhomecare(+3.3%)ledmarketgrowth,whilepersonalcare(+1.1%)sawmodestgainsandbeverages(-1.1%)turnednegativeinQ2andQ3amidrisingpricecompetitionandincreasingsubstitutionbyfreshlymadedrinks.Pricedeflation,whichacceleratedthrough2024(—3.4%),begantoeasein2025(—2.4%),reflectingtheemergenceofanewnormalwhereconsumersbalancepriceandqualitymorethoughtfullyinsomecategories.Onthechannelfront,offlineformatsremainedunderpressureoverall,butemergingdemandgenerationchannels—membershipstores,snackcollectionstores,discountstores—expandedrapidly,posting+40%,+51%,and+92%year-over-yeargrowth,respectively.Similarly,O2Ochannelsreboundedstronglyin2025,up+7.9%year-over-yearinQ3afterlastyear’sdecline,drivenbyrisingpenetration(+4percentagepoints)andhigherpurchasefrequency(from4.7to5.5perquarter,+17%).Meanwhile,onlinechannelsincreasedby+7%,andonlinepenetrationreboundedslightlyto39%(from37%in2024),ledbyDouyin(抖音)andPinduoduo(拼多多),whichnowcontributeover40%oftotalFMCGe-commercesales.3AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGAlookbackonthefirstthreequartersof2025Forthefirstthreequartersof2025,China’sFMCGmarketrecordedmodestYTDgrowthof+1.3%.Volumerose+3.8%,partiallyoffsetbya—2.4%declineinASP.QuarterlytrendsshowthatmomentumwasstrongestinQ1(+2.7%)assomemacroeconomicindicatorsimproved,thegovernmentannouncedpoliciestosupportdomesticconsumption,andtherewasrobustspendingduringtheChineseNewYearperiod.Growththenmoderatedto+0.7%inQ2and+0.4%inQ3,asbroadereconomicactivitysoftenedandhouseholdsentimentweakened(seeFigure1).Volumeremainedtheprimarydriverofgrowth,whilepricedeflationmoderatedTherewereclearsignsofpricedeflationstabilizing,withtherateimprovingfrom—3.4%FY2023-24to2.4%YTD2025Q3(seeFigure2).Thismoderationwassupportedbyacontractioninpromotionalintensity—overallpromotionsharefellfrom24.1%to23.0%.Personalcareandhomecare,inparticular,sawnoticeabledeclinesinpromotionrates(—1.8pptsand—1.4ppts,respectively),reflectingconsumers’morethoughtfulbalancebetweenpriceandqualityinsomecategories,ratherthansimplyseekingthelowestpriceatalltimes,andbrands’moredisciplinedpromotionandpricemanagement.Figure1:The2025FMCGmarketrecordedmodestgrowth,drivenbyastrongQ1,followedbyaslowedQ2andQ3Year-over-yearchangeinurbanshoppers'totalspendingonFMCG TotalFMCGFoodandbeveragePersonalandhomecare20%1.3%(YTD2024Q3–2025Q3)0Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3202220232024202520222023202420250.8%2.7%0.7%0.4%2.4%Notes:FMCGisfast-movingconsumergoods;Worldpanelupdatedtheconsumeruniversein2022and2023,leadingtosomeinconsistencieswithpreviousyears‘data;YTD2024Q3refersto30Dec2023to6Sep2024;YTD2025Q3refersto28Dec2024to5Sep2025Sources:Worldpanel;Bainanalysis4AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGFigure2:FMCGgrowthcontinuedtobeprimarilydrivenbyvolume;pricepressurescontinuedfromlastyear,thoughlessintensePercentage,2020–25Q3YTDValueAnnualurbanFMCGmarketvaluegrowthVolumeAnnualurbanFMCGmarketvolumegrowthAveragesellingpriceAnnualurbanFMCGmarketASPgrowth0.80.0-0.8-2.4-2.5-2.4-3.42021–222020–212022–232023–24YTD2024Q3–2025Q32021–222020–212022–232023–24Notes:ASPisaveragesellingpricebasedonRMBperkg/L,exceptthatdiapersandsanitarypadsareperpiece,skincareandmakeupareperpack,facialtissueandtoilettissueareper100sheets/rolls;CPIisconsumerpriceindexSources:Worldpanel;NationalBureauofStatistics;BainanalysisLower-tiercitiesemergeaspivotalenginesformarketgrowthTier3-5citiesaccountedforaround80%oftotalFMCGmarketexpansionin2025,withvolumesrising4%-6%andhelpingtooffset2%-3%ASPdeclines(seeFigure3).Thisgrowthwasdrivenbycontinuedurbanization,resilientlocalconsumption,anddeeperpenetrationbyretailersandFMCGbrands,whichincreasinglyviewtheselow-tiermarketsasthenextkeygrowthfrontier.RetailformatssuchassnackcollectionstoresandO2Ohavegainedtractioninlow-tiercities,providingnewroutestomarketandacceleratingdemandconversion.Localconsumershavealsobenefitedfromlowerlivingcosts,comparedtoconsumersinhigher-tiercities.Together,thesedynamicsarereshapingChina’sFMCGgrowthmap,positioningTier3-5citiesastheprimarydriversofvolumerecoverywhilecompetitionintensifiesinmatureurbancenters.5AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGFigure3:Lower-tiercitiesgrewfaster,whileallcitytiersfacedadeflationaryenvironmentPercentage,2020–25Q3YTDValueVolumeAveragesellingpriceUrbanFMCGmarketvaluegrowthbycitytierUrbanFMCGmarketvolumegrowthbycitytierUrbanFMCGASPgrowthbycitytier6.03.81.3%3.8%4.1-2.4%Tier1Tier2Tier3Tier4Tier5---TotalFMCGgrowthrateNotes:ASPisaveragesellingprice;Tier1cities:Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou;Tier2cities:provincecapitalsexcludingBeijing,Shanghai,andGuangzhou,includingTianjin,Chongqing,Shenzhen,Dalian,Qingdao;Tier3cities:prefecture-levelcities,excludingDalianandQingdao;Tier4cities:county-levelcities;Tier5cities:theresidencesofthecountygovernmentsSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisWorldpanel|Bain&Company,Inc.6AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGCategoryupdate:Packagedfood,homecare,andpersonalcaresustaingrowthwhilebeveragedownturndeepensAcrossthefourmajorFMCGsectors,packagedfoodledgrowthinthefirstthreequartersof2025witha+3.4%valueincrease,drivenbystabledemandincorestaplesandsnackingcategories(seeFigure4).Homecarefollowedwithgrowthof+3.3%,supportedbyresilienthygienedemandandsteadyhouseholdconsumption.Personalcareshowedearlysignsofrecovery(+1.1%)afterseveralyearsofdecline,buoyedbyaQ1rebound(+3.8%)beforestabilizinginsubsequentquarters.Incontrast,beveragessawanotabledownturn(1.1%)asintensifiedcompetitionandpricecutsweighedonoverallvaluegrowth.Packagedfoodmaintainedoverallgrowthof+3.4%.Volumegrowthmoderatedfrom+4.6%inQ1and+4.2%inQ2to+2.9%inQ3yearoveryear,signalingearlysignsofdeceleration.Meanwhile,ASP—whichhadbeendecliningsince2024(—0.6%in2024,—1.3%in2025Q1,—0.9%inQ2)—reboundedto+0.9%inQ3,indicatingagradualrecoveryinpricing.Growthwassupportedbysteadydemandincorestaplesandsnackingcategories,butmomentumslowedasconsumerstradeddowntomoreaffordablepackoptionsamidlingeringpricesensitivity.Instantnoodlesdeliveredsolidvalueandvolumegrowth(both+5.9%),supportedbyrisingsalesfromemergingchannelssuchassnackstores,O2O,ande-commerce.Thiscategoryhasalsoseensomesharegainfromotherconvenientfoodcategories,andnewproductinnovationsfrombrands,suchasA-Kuan(阿宽),thatcaptureconsumers’refineddemands,drivingupthepricesdespitelower-pricedcompetition.Nutritionsupplementsustaineditsstronggrowthmomentum(+5.3%),drivenbycontinuedconsumerfocusonhealthandwellnessandexpandedproductpenetration.Infantformulashowedamodestrecovery(+1.7%),reflectinganimpactfromlastyear’sbabyboom(YearoftheDragon).Chocolateandcandycontinuedtodecline(—2.9%and—5.1%,respectively),weigheddownbygrowinghealthawareness,smallerpacksizes,andreducedpurchasefrequency.Risingcocoapricesfurthercompressedmarginstomanufacturers.Overthelongerterm,ashrinkingchildpopulationposesadditionalstructuralheadwindsforthesecategories.Beveragesrecordedtheweakestperformanceamongthefourmajorcategories(—1.1%).Althoughvolumeroseby3.6%inYTD2025Q3,ASPpersistentlydecreased(—4.6%)(seeFigure5).Thispricedeflationwasdrivenbyacombinationoffactors:heightenedbrandcompetition,suchasinpackagedwater;growingpricepressuresfromemergingchannels;andtheongoingsubstitutioneffectoffreshlymadedrinks(FMDs)amidthe“O2Odeliverywar.”Amongthebeveragecategories,milkandyogurtsawthesteepestdeclines(—6.4%and—5.8%,respectively),withvolumedown—3.3%and—2.3%,andASPdown—3.2%and—3.6%,respectively.Oversupplyofrawmilkandfiercecompetitioncontinuedtoweighonprices,whileconsumerstradeddownorswitchedtowardlighter,plant-based,orjuicealternativesinresponsetosofterhouseholdspending.Instantcoffeerecordeda—0.4%decline.Whilepricesremainedrelativelyresilient(+0.7%),volumedroppedby—1.1%.Thisdownturncanbeattributedtointensecompetitivepressurefromfreshlybrewedcoffeechainsandotherbeveragenewcomers,suchastea-baseddrinks,whicharealsovyingforconsumers’shareofthroat.Worldpanel|Bain&Company,Inc.7AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGFigure4:Packagedfoodandhomecareledthegrowth,whilepersonalcaresawmodestgainsandbeveragefacedheadwindsPercentage,YTD2024Q3–2025Q3FoodandbeverageFoodandbeverageFoodandbeverageFoodandbeveragemarketvaluegrowthPersonalandhomecarePersonalcareandhomecaremarketvaluegrowthUrbanFMCGmarketvaluegrowth6.13.4%3.83.33.3%2.7-0.5-3.225Q125Q225Q3Packagedfood25Q125Q225Q3Q12025Q22025Q32025---Growthrate(YTDQ32024–Q32025)Sources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisFigure5:SinceCovid-19,beveragedeclineddespitehealthyvolumegrowth,whilepackagedfoodremainedmoreresilientdespiterecentpricedropsPercentage,2020–25Q3YTDValueAnnualgrowthofurbanValueAnnualgrowthofurbanFMCGmarketvalue6.2AnnualgrowthofurbanFMCGvolume3.63.33.63.33.42.72.9-3.0-3.0-3.6AveragesellingpriceAnnualgrowthofurban-0.6-0.5-2.9-3.8-4.6PackagedfoodPackagedfoodBeveragePackagedfoodBeverage2020–212021–222022–232023–24YTDQ32024–Q32025Note:ASPisaveragesellingpriceSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisWorldpanel|Bain&Company,Inc.8AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGConversely,juicerecordedthestrongestgrowthinthebeveragecategory(+19.2%),up+14.9%involumeand+3.7%inASP,asconsumerscontinuedtofavorhealth-positionedandfreshlyblendedjuicessuchasNFC(not-from-concentrate)andHPP(high-pressureprocessing)chilledvariants.Beerdelivered+5.3%growth(+4.6%volume,+0.7%ASP),withadivergence:In-homeconsumptionstayedstableamongvalue-seeking“beerveterans,”whileout-of-homegrowthwasdrivenbyyoungerdrinkersseekinglighterstylesandsocialexperiences.Premiumandcraftbeerproductsstilloutperformed,underscoringtheroleofquality,packaging,andexperienceevenamiddeflation.Packagedwater(+4.9%)andready-to-drink(RTD)tea(+2.4%)bothachievedsolidvolumegrowth(+8.8%and+4.5%,respectively)butsawASPdeclines(—3.6%and—2.0%)amidintensifiedpricecompetition,asmajorplayersfurtherpusheddownpackpricesinlower-tiercities.Atthesametime,categoryboundariesareblurringasRTDtea,instantcoffee,andFMDscompeteforsimilarconsumptionoccasions.Overall,FMDscontinuedtocapturesharefrompackagedbeverages,combiningfreshness,affordability,andO2Oconvenience.BrandssuchasMixue(蜜雪冰城)remainedprice-competitivewithRTDteaandsoda,reinforcingthetrendtowardaffordableindulgenceandaccessibletrade-upoptionsamongconsumersinlower-tiercities.Personalcarerecorded+1.1%valuegrowthinYTD2025Q3,markingaturningpointforthecategoryafterthreeconsecutiveyearsofdecline(—4.8%,—2.0%,—2.3%inthethreeyears)(seeFigure6).GrowthwasdrivenbyastrongQ1rebound(+3.8%),supportedbylargerpackpurchasesinaffordablesegments.ThemomentumsoftenedthroughQ2-Q3(—0.5%and0%,respectively),buttheoveralltrendstillindicatesashifttowardrecoveryratherthancontinueddecline.Makeuprecordedthestrongestreboundacrosspersonalcare(+6.3%invalueand+14.5%involume),drivenbytheclearanceofCovid-eraoverstockasconsumersreturnedtoanormalrepurchasecycleandreactivateddemandfromviralcontentenginessuchasDouyin(抖音)andXiaohongshu(小红书).However,sustainedcross-platformdiscountingandmassbrandentrycontinuedtodragdownASPs(7.2%).Skincaremaintainedmildgrowth(+1.5%),withstrongvolumegrowth(+7.1%)despiteASPdecline(5.2%).Localbrandshavegainedfurthertractionbypromotingtheirpropositionofdeliveringsimilarefficacypairedwithluxurybrandsbutatmoreaccessibleprices,intensifyingcompetitionandpressuringASPs.Toothpaste(+3.8%)wastheonlyexceptiontothedeflationarytrend,withgrowthinbothvolume(+3.4%)andASP(+0.4%).Growthwasfueledbypremiumization,expansionthroughintereste-commerceplatformslikeDouyin(抖音),andcontinuousconsumereducationtoaddresscorepainpoints,generatenewdemand,andmeetmoreadvancedcareneeds.Leadingbrands—includingColgate(高露洁,whitening),YunnanBaiyao(云南白药,gumcare),andSensodyne(舒适达,sensitivityrelief)—ledthecategorywithclearfunctionalpositioning.Othercategoriessuchasshampooandpersonalwash,showedmoderatevolumerecoverybutcontinuedtofacepricepressureandslowpremiumtrade-upamidintensifiedcompetitionandcautioushouseholdspending.Worldpanel|Bain&Company,Inc.9AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGFigure6:SinceCovid-19,personalcarereboundedfrommarketcontractionandhomecaresustainedasteadyexpansionPercentage,2020–25Q3YTDValueAnnualgrowthofurbanFMCGmarketvalue8.76.0-2.3-4.8-2.0VolumeAnnualgrowthofurbanFMCGvolume4.84.20.1AveragesellingpriceAnnualgrowthofurbanFMCGASP0.70.00.7-0.1-3.9-2.5-3.9-2.5-6.8-3.3PersonalcareHomecarePersonalcareHomecarePersonalcareHomecare2020–212021–222022–232023–24YTDQ32024–Q32025Note:ASPisaveragesellingpriceSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisHomecaremaintainedasteadygrowthof+3.3%inYTD2025Q3.Aswithpersonalcare,muchofthismomentumstemmedfromastrongsurgeinQ1(+6.1%)supportedbyincreasinghouseholdpurchasesinaffordablesegments.Despitethesegains,ASPacrossallhomecarecategoriesdeclined,reflectingconsumers’ongoingfocusonvaluewhenpurchasingeverydayessentials.Toilettissuewasindecline(—5.8%),withbothvolume(—2.8%)andASP(—3.1%)fallingyear-on-year.Thedecreasesweredrivenbyconsumermigrationtowardemergingsubsegmentswithmorespecializedfunctions,likewettissues,whichprovideasuperioruserexperienceandarereshapingcategoryboundaries.Facialtissuecontinuedtoleadcategorygrowth(+5.4%),up+8.4%involumeand+5.4%invalue,supportedbyexpandeduseoccasionsandrisingpenetrationinlower-tiercities.Fabricdetergent(+1.4%)andkitchencleaner(+3.5%)bothmaintainedsolidgrowthinvolume(+3.1%and+5.8%,respectively),benefitingfromimprovedhygienehabitsandproductinnovation(e.g.,concentratedliquidsandmultipurposecleaners).However,ASPremainedunderpressureamidintensepricecompetitionandfrequentonlinepromotions.AdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGTwo-speedphenomenon:In2025YTD,thetwo-speedphenomenonpersistedintheFMCGmarket(seeFigure7).Fast-growingcategoriesarenowincreasinglyrelatedtohygieneorin-homecookingsuchassesameoil,herbandspicesauces,juice,andfunctionaldrinks,withgrowthmainlydrivenbyvolume.Carryoveroutperformerssuchassesameoilandjuiceremainedamongthemostresilientgrowthengines,sustainingstrongmomentumfromprioryearsandfurtherreinforcingconsumers’shifttowardhealthandwellness.Low-speedcategoriescontinuetoseedeclinesinbothASPandvolume,suchasUHT(ultra-hightemperature)milk,toilettissue,andforeignspirits,reflectingpricefatigueandlowerconsumerengagement.Sausageandmeatisthecategoryshowingaconsistentdeclineovertime.Figure7:Mostofthefast-growingcategoriesarenichecategoriesrelatedtohygieneorhomecookingPercentagepointchangeinvalueCAGR(YTD25Q3vs.YTD24Q3)HighspeedLowspeed60%5240282024200-3-3-5-5-5-6-6-6-3-3-20HandwashToilettissueWineAdultdiaperDisin-HandwashToilettissueWineAdultdiaperDisin-fectantSesameoilSausageandFunc-tionaldrinkfoodmeatOysterChoco-CandyYogurtUHTOysterChoco-CandyYogurtUHTsaucelatemilkAirfreshener(herbandspice)Note:UHTmilkisultra-hightemperaturemilkSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisAdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGPricingupdate:Deflationarytrendcontinuedbutshowedsignsofslowingafteranaccelerationin2024Thedeflationarytrendthatbeganinmid-2021intensifiedthroughout2024,withASPdecliningbyasmuchas3.4%(seeFigure8).Whilethisdownwardtrajectorypersistedinto2025,itbegantostabilize,withtheannualrateofdeclineeasingto—2.4%.Thisshiftsuggestsconsumers’morethoughtfulbalancebetweenpriceandqualityinsomecategories,andbrands’moredisciplinedpromotionandpricemanagement.Nevertheless,pricedeflationremainedprevalent.Outofthe27FMCGsubcategories,19continuedtofacedecliningprices(seeFigure9).Allpersonalcareandhomecarecategories,apartfromtoothpaste,continuedtofacedecliningASPs.Amongbeveragecategories,aroundhalfofthem,includingmilk,yogurt,packagedwater,andRTDtea,alsoexperiencedongoingdownwardpressures.Packagedfoodwaslessaffected,withonlychewinggumandnutritionsupplementsseeingnotabledeclines;forboth,thepaceofpricedropacceleratedin2025.Amidthecommonlyobservedpricedeflation,selectcategoriesstillmaintainedmomentumtowardpremiumization.Juicestandsoutasaclearexample,whileotherfoodandbeveragecategoriessuchaschocolatealsopostedupwardtrading.Toothpaste,theonlynon-foodcategory,continueditssteadypremiumizationtrend(seeFigure10).Figure8:Thedeflationarytrendacceleratedthrough2024andcontinuedinto2025butshowssignsofslowingUrbanFMCGASPgrowthbyquarter(percentage,Q12021–Q32025)---Annualgrowthrate(percentage)3.43.40.00.5–0.8 –0.04%–4.4–4.1 –3.4%–3.2 –0.8%–2.8 –2.5%–3.3 –2.4%20-4-6–3.0–3.0–3.8–3.8Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q320212022202320242025YTDNote:ASPisaveragesellingpriceSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisAdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGFigure9:Thedeflationaryenvironmentimpactedmostofthe27trackedcategories,whilejuiceandchocolatepremiumizedASPyear-over-yeargrowth(percentage,YTDQ32025vs.YTDQ32024)2024CPI:0.2%Q32025CPI:-0.4%ASPdeclinereversedASPdeclinereversedContinuousASPincreaseChocolateJuiceCandyformulaBeerInstantnoodleToothpasteFabricdetergentShampooToilettissuePersonalwashYogurtMilkKitchencleanerSkincareFacialtissueMakeupNutritionsupplementContinuousASPdeclineASPgrowthreversedChewinggumDiaperPackagedwaterHairconditionerSanitarypadCSDInstantcoffeeBiscuitInfantPackagedfood●BeverageHomecare.PersonalcareNotes:ASPisaveragesellingprice;CPIisconsumerpriceindex;CSDiscarbonatedsoftdrink;RTDisready-to-drinkSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisAdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGFigure10:Onlyafewcategoriesmanagedtotradeup,whilemosttradeddownPercentagegrowthbypricetierbycategory(percentage,YTDQ32024–YTDQ32025)TradeupTradedown38ToothpasteistheonlyToothpasteistheonlynon-F&Bcategoryunderpremiumization866666665444 4143444 41433322-3-3-3-3-3-322-3-3-3-3-3-3ToothpastesupplementsconditionerToothpastesupplementsconditionerdetergentsPackagedShampoodetergentsPackagedShampooJuiceBeerInstantcoffeeFabricwaterFacialtissueNutritionMakeupSkincareJuiceBeerInstantcoffeeFabricwaterFacialtissueNutritionMakeupSkincarePersonalwashHairYogurt0.7%-2.80.7%0.4%0.7%-2.80.7%0.4%YTD24Q3-25Q3ASPgrowthPremiumMid-rangeMassCategorygrowthSources:Worldpanel;BainanalysisAdaptingtoChannelEvolution:OpportunitiesandChallengesforFMCGDecodingemergingchanneldynamicsChina’sFMCGretaillandscapeisundergoingastructuralshift.Channelsarenolongerpassivesalesendpointsbutactive,demand-shapingecosystemspoweredbydata,technology,andconsumerproximity.Emergingformatssuchasmembershipstores,snackchains,discountstores,andO2Oareredefiningwhereandhowconsumersengage,whilee-commercecontinuestodiversifythroughplatformslikeDouyin(抖音)andPinduoduo(拼多多).Asconsumptionoccasionsfragmentandvalueexpectationsrise,channelsareplayinganincreasinglystrategicroleininfluencingbrandchoice,shapingproductofferings,andacceleratingprivate-labeldevelopment.UnderstandingthesedynamicsiscriticalforbrandstonavigateafragmentedandpolarizedretaillandscapeandcapturegrowthinChina’snextphaseofdemand-drivenexpansion.Theoverallchannellandscapein2025closelymirrorsthetrendsobservedinthepreviousyear.Offlinechannelscontinuedtocontract,withtraditionalhypermarketsandconveniencestore