上海美国商会杂志-2026年冬季洞察（英）

INSIGHTTheJournaloftheAmericanChamberofCommerceinShanghai-InsightWinter2026Wherepolicy,leadershipandappetiteconvergeinChinaECONOMYP.05LizziLeeonECONOMYP.05LizziLeeonBigHealthIseconomicpotentialCHAMBERP.40JanBerrisonalifetimeofculturaldiplomacyShaneTedjarationmorethanthreedecadesinChina2026BOARDOFGOVERNORSCHAMINSIGHTCHAMTheJournaloftheAmericanChamberofCommerceinShanghai-InsightWinter2026AMCHAMSHANGHAIECONOMYPresidentECONOMYERICZHENGVPofAdministration&FinanceHELENRENVPofCorporate&CommercialKARENYUEN05China’sPost-propertyGrowthEra:HELENRENVPofCorporate&CommercialKARENYUENLizziLeeoftheAsiaSocietyPolicylnstituteexamineswhether“BigHealthncanbecomeChinaIsDirectorsPOLICYCommitteesJESSICAWUEventsKARENQIU09GeologicalGambit:EscapingtheTrapofCriticalMineralEventsKARENQIUCoryCombsofTriviumChinaanalyzestheglobalcompetitionforcriticalmineralsupplychainsGovernmentRelations&CSRMARKWANGTrade&InvestmentCenterLEONTUNGBUSINESSLEONTUNG14Lessonsfrom35YearsinChina:GrowthandLeadershipinaFracturedWorldINSIGHTINSIGHTEditorinChiefRACHELRAPAPORTSeniorContentEditorSTEPHANIESAMEditorinChiefRACHELRAPAPORTSeniorContentEditorSTEPHANIESAMRetailCommitteevice–chairTedHopkinsassesseshowemotionalvalueischangingtheconsumerContentManagerEVELYNGONGDesignGABRIELECORDIOLIPrintingSNAPPRINTING,EVELYNGONGDesignGABRIELECORDIOLIPrintingSNAPPRINTING,INC.ZakDychtwaldofBridgeWorksontranslationg31ThinkingOutsidetheJar:HormelonPeanutButter,MeatandMuchMoreNormanGu,headofHormel’sChinaoperations,chatsF&BinnovationandlocalizingclassicAmericanbrandsINSIGHTSPONSORSHIP34CultureShift:Öarmilk’sYogurtINSIGHTSPONSORSHIP(8621)6169-3000Storyideas,questionsorcommentsonInsight:Pleasecontactrachel.rapaport@amcham-shanghaiStoryideas,questionsorcommentsonInsight:Pleasecontactrachel.rapaport@40From40FromPingPongtoTrackII:ALifetimeofCulturalDiplomacyJanBerrisoftheNationalCommitteeonUS–ChinaRelationsreviewsmorethan50yearsatthecenteroftheworld’smostconsequentialrelationshipAMCHAMWinteWinter2026Shanghai,200021Chinatel:(8621)6169-30003PRESIDENT’SLETTERERICZHENGPresidentofTheAmericanChamberofCommerceinShanghaiAsweturnthepageonanotherywritewithamixtureofreflection,resolveandcautiousoptimism.2025wasayearofcon-sequentialchangeforUS-Chinatraderela-dentDonaldTrumpandChinesePresidentXiAfteroverhalfayearofescalatingtradeworking-levelcommunicationsandclearerguardrailsaroundsensitiveissuessignaityareasincludingeconomicdevelopmenovation,people’swellbeingandsocialde-velopment.ExceptinafewcategoriessuchandenergyconsumptionexceededitsFYPtargets.DespiteCovithetradewar,Chinahasmaintainedsteforthepastthreeyears.alandscapewhereopportunityandriskregulatoryandgeopoliticalpressuAmidthesechallenges,AmChamShang-haihasstayedtruetoitscoremission:servingasaconstructivebridgebetweenbusinessandgovernment.Thisfocuswasespeciallymeaningfulaswecelebratedour110than-niversarythisyear,ahistoricmilestoneforUS-ChinatraderelationsandtheAmericanbusinesscommunityinChina.SMEmembers.Wehavealsoexpandedourservicecoverageacrosmembers,westrivetoenAmericansnackstartupKabodFoods.LastECONOMYECONOMYLizziC.LeeisaFellowontheChineseEconowheresheleadstheCenter’sEconomicsandTechnologyPillar.ShecDealingwithChina,”whichfocusesonglobalMNCs’Chinastrategies,and“TheBusinessofBeingWell,”whichfrequentcommentatorininternationalmedia,includingBloomberg,CNCreweightingoftheentiregrowthmodel—oneinwhichfrontiertechnologiessuchassemiconductors,EVs,batteries,aerospace,quantumcomputingandbiomanufactur-ingdominateheadlinesareincreasinglyprioritizedamidapushforhigh-qualitydevelopmentandintensifyingcompetitionwiththeUS.Canthesenewgrowthdriversfillthegapleftbyproperty?Theireconomicreweightingoftheentiregrowthmodel—oneinwhichfrontiertechnologiessuchassemiconductors,EVs,batteries,aerospace,quantumcomputingandbiomanufactur-ingdominateheadlinesareincreasinglyprioritizedamidapushforhigh-qualitydevelopmentandintensifyingcompetitionwiththeUS.Canthesenewgrowthdriversfillthegapleftbyproperty?Theireconomicmul-tipliersarelimitedcomparedwithreales-tate,whichonceaccountedforasmuchas30%ofeconomicactivityand,by2024,about70%ofhouseholdwealth.Thesetechindustriesarehighvalueaddedbutnotyetlarge,broad-based,oremploymentintensiveenoughtodrivetheeconomyontheirown.Norcanexports,whichhaveheldupbetterthanexpectedbutremainconcentratedinanarrowsetofcategoriesandfacerisinggeopoliticalrisks.AmoreplausibleanchorforChina’sndecademaycomenotfromanysinglein-dustrybutfromabroad,multisectorecosys-tem:“BigHealth.”Thisencompasseshealth-caredelivery,eldercare,long-termcare,rehabilitation,medicaltechnology,pharma-ceuticals,health-relatedconsumption,well-nesstourism,digitalhealthplatformsandtherapidlyexpandingsilvereconomy.Whatsupport,demographicdrivers,andwidein-temicpullthatpropertyonceprovided.Winter2026Thedownturninrealestatehasbeenstructuralratherthancyclical,reflectedinshrinkingsalesvolumes,persistentweak-nessindevelopers’balancesheets,andadecisivepolicyshiftawayfrompropertyasaprimarygrowthdriver.WhatfollowsWinter20265BigHealthfrontandcinthe15thFive-yearPlanBigHealth’spolicyprioritizationisun-mistakable.RecommendationsforChi-na’s15thFive-YearPlan(FYP)(2026-2030)elevatea“health-firststrategy”(健康优先发展战略)tothelevelofnationalstrategy,signalingthathealthmustbeembeddedintourbanBigHealthfrontandcinthe15thFive-yearPlanBigHealth’spolicyprioritizationisun-mistakable.RecommendationsforChi-na’s15thFive-YearPlan(FYP)(2026-2030)elevatea“health-firststrategy”(健康优先发展战略)tothelevelofnationalstrategy,signalingthathealthmustbeembeddedintourbanplanning,environmentalgover-nance,education,economicpolicymaking,labor-marketdesign,digitaltechnologiesandsocialprotection.Officialsdescribethisas“integratinghealthintoallpolicies”(将健康融入所有政策),aconceptualupgradeshapedbylessonsfromthepandemic,mountingdemographicpressures,andthegrowingrecognitionthathealthinfluencesproductivity,socialstabilityandlong-termgrowth.ThisreframinggivesBigHealthacross-sectorgovernancearchitecturerare-lyextendedtoserviceindustries.EquallyimportantisthatthesectoralignswithChina’sunderlyingdemograph-iccrisis;thereweremorethan310millionpeopleagedsixtyandabovein2024,andtheEconomistIntelligenceUnitprojectsthedependencyratiotofallfromrough-lysixworkersperretireetojustthreeby2040.Thisdemographicshiftisgeneratingdemandfarbeyondmedicalcare—ex-tendingintonewhousingmodels,com-munity-based“medical-plus-care”(医养结合)services,rehabilitationfacilities,med-icaldevices,chronic-diseasemanage-mentsystems,long-termcareinsurance,ties,andsupportingindustriesthatspanrehabilitation,eldercare,wellnesscon-sumptionandmedicaltourism.Localgovernmentshavealreadyworkedonthesepriorities.Duringthe14thFYPperiod(2021–2025),morethanadozenprovincesissueddevelopmentplansforagingservicesoreldercaresystems.Fol-lowingthecentralgovernment’sguidancetoestablishabasiceldercaresystemby2025,over20provincesenactedlocal“el-dercareserviceordinances,”accompaniedbyinvestmentplansformedicalclusters,long-termcareinstitutionsandgenometechnologyinnovationhubs.AsisoftenthecaseinChina’spolicyprocess,lessonsfromtheselocalpilotsarelikelytobeab-sorbedandgraduallyelevatedintonation-al-levelinitiatives.estate?Housingconstructiononceanchoreddozensofupstreamanddownstreamsup-plychains,abreadthofimpactthatBigHealthisbeginningtoreplicate.Onestudyshowsthatthetotalhealthcareandwell-nessexpenditurealreadyaccountsformorethan7%ofGDP,whilethemaisexpectedtoreachRMB¥16trillionfrom¥9trilliontoday.Unlikesectorsheavilydepen-dentonglobalmarkets,health-relatedde-mandisoverwhelminglydomesticandlessexposedtoexternalshocks.Consumptioninthiscategorytendstobepersistent,par-Health-relatedinfrastructurecouldalsoofferapathwayforpropertydeveloperstorepositiontowardmedicalfacilities,se-nior-housingcomplexes,assisted-livingcommunities,andintegratedmedical–wellnessdevelopments.Strongregulatorysafeguardswillbeneededtopreventover-building,butunliketraditionalhousing,demandinthesesegmentsisstructurallyrisingratherthancontracting.Forexample,whilemajoreasterncitiesofferroughly35eldercarebedsper1,000seniors,coun-ty-levelareasincentralandwesternChinahaveonlyabout22.Watchpoints:“Healthinallage-friendlyurbandesign,nutri-tionandwellnessservices,andthebroaderconstellationofgoodsandservicesassociatedwiththesilvereconomy.Previewsofthe15thFYPem-phasizetwoprioritiesforBigHealthwithsocialandeconomicimpli-cations.Thefirstage-friendlyurbandesign,nutri-tionandwellnessservices,andthebroaderconstellationofgoodsandservicesassociatedwiththesilvereconomy.Previewsofthe15thFYPem-phasizetwoprioritiesforBigHealthwithsocialandeconomicimpli-cations.Thefirstistoimprovelifeexpectancyandpopulationhealth,withashiftfromfocusingsolelyonlongevitytoemphasizingahealthylifespan.Thisentailsstrengtheningdiseasepreventionandchronicdiseasemanagement,encourag-inghealthierlifestyles,improvingelpoliticalblueprint—HealthyChi-na2030—thatformallypositionedhealthasacross-cuttingpriorityforgovernance.StalledenginesofgrowthTherecommendationsforthe15thFYPfurthercallforstrength-eningtheinstitutionalsystemforpromotingpublichealth,whichmeansimprovingthepolicyframe-work,expandingservicecapaci-ty,increasingfiscalsupportinkeyareas,andestablishingStalledenginesofgrowthticularlyaschronicdiseasesincreaseandtheelderlypopulationexpands.Likerealestate,BigHealthspansanextensiveupstream–downstreamchainthatincorporatesbothtraditionalandemergingindustries.Traditionalseg-ments—fromupstreampharmaceuti-environmentalconditions,andraisingthequalityandequityofhealthservices.Thesecondpriorityistoharnesstheeconomicpotentialoftheelderlyticularlyaschronicdiseasesincreaseandtheelderlypopulationexpands.Likerealestate,BigHealthspansanextensiveupstream–downstreamchainthatincorporatesbothtraditionalandemergingindustries.Traditionalseg-ments—fromupstreampharmaceuti-environmentalconditions,andraisingthequalityandequityofhealthservices.Thesecondpriorityistoharnesstheeconomicpotentialoftheelderlypopulationbyen-couragingolderadultstoremaineconom-icallyactivewherepossible,expandingage-appropriateemploymentopportuni-6ECONOMYECONOMYanearlyage;andenvironmentalpolicytostrengthencontrolsonair,waterandsoilpollution,giventheirdirectlinkstochron-icdisease.Economicpolicymustmean-whilesupportthegrowthofhealth-relat-edindustrieswhiletighteningoversightofharmfulproductionactivities.Thisapproachwillexpandhealthpoli-cyintoabroadergovernanceframework.Regulatoryadjustmentsandinstitutionalreformsareexpectednotonlyinhealth-carebutacrossconstructionstandards,foodsafetyregulation,environmentalcompliance,pharmaceuticalinnovation,datagovernanceandinsurancedesign.Thereisalsoagradualshifttowardassign-inggreaterweighttohealthoutcomesinperformancesystems.Chinaincorporatedreached15.6%,onparwiththatofmanyhigh-incomecountries.Thisuniquedemographic-economicprofilemeansthatdemandforaffordableeldercareservices,basicrehabilitationandcommunity-basedsupportwillbejustasimportantashigh-endofferings.Thepolicychallengeisthustostrikeabalanceamongcost,accessibilityandquality.Thereiscurrentlyastructuralmismatch:theseniorcareindustryhaspredomi-nantlycateredtoaffluentclientsthroughthedevelopmentofhigh-endretirementcommunityandassetleasing/salesmod-els.Thishasresultedinasignificantdis-connectbetweenthesupplyofbasicel-dercareservicesandtheoverwhelmingdemand—over97%—forhome-andgraduallyraisetheretirementageformaleworkersto63andforfemaleworkersto55ButtheprivatesectoristhedecidingfactorAnynewgrowthmodelinChinain-evitablydependsontheprivatesec-tor.Privatefirmsgeneratemorethan80%ofurbanemployment,over60%ofnewGDPandmorethanhalfofthecountry’staxrevenue.Theyaccountforthemajorityofpharmaceuticalinno-vation,health-techdevelopment,digi-tal-healthsolutions,eldercareservicesandwellness-relatedconsumerprod-ucts.Theyalsodominatetheconsum-er-facingplatformsessentialfordeliv-Vialsofeconomicvitalityhealthindicatorsintogovernmentperfor-manceevaluationsforthefirsttimein2019,aligningbureaucraticincentiveswithna-tionalpriorities.Policymakersviewagingasbothachal-lengeandanopportunity,asseenbyre-peatedphrasessuchas“expandthesilvereconomy”and“developelderlyhumanre-sources.”China’ssilvereconomyisalsode-velopingrelativelyearlyalongtheincomecurve.Bytheendof2024,China'spercap-itaGDPwasapproximatelyUS$13,300,significantlybelowthatofmostdevelopednations.However,itsshareofthepopula-tionthatisaged65andoverhasalreadycommunity-basedcare.Forbusinesses,theopportunityliesinscalableservicemodelsthatcanreachadiverseconsum-erbase,particularlytheunderservedmid-dle-incomesegment.Seniorsarealsoincreasinglyseenaspartofthelaborforce.The15thFYPplanningnarrativeanticipatespoliciesthatfacilitatere-employmentforolderadultswhowishtowork,createage-appropriatejoboppor-tunities,andencouragecontinuedsocialparticipation.Thisreflectsnotonlylongerlifeexpectancybutalsoapragmaticrecog-nitionthatclosingChina’spension-fundgapwillrequireexpandingworkforcepartici-pation.Onemajorpolicyupdatehasbeenadelayoftheretirementage,whichwilleringhealthservicesatscale.Winter2026Yetinvestmentappetiteremainsun-even.Healthisahighlyregulatedsector,andpolicyimplementationvarieswidelyacrossprovinces.Manyprivatecompaniesciteinconsistentregulatoryenforcement,ambiguouslicensingrequirements,andunpredictablelocal-governmentbehav-ioraspersistentchallenges.ThepassageofthePrivateEconomyPromotionLawin2025wasintendedtoaddresssomeoftheseconcerns,butmeaningfulimprove-mentwillrequireconsistent,on-the-Winter2026NosilverbulletDespiteitspotential,BigHealthwillnot78Readytoworkreplicatethepropertyboom.Healthcareandeldercaredonotlendthemselvestorapid,credit-fueledexpansion,nordotheygeneratethesameconstructionvolumesorlandrevenuesthatoncesustainedlo-calgovernments.Scalinglabor-intensiveservicesalsofacewageandqualitycon-straints,whilepublic-financeburdenswillriseasdemandgrowsforsubsidizedhealthcare,long-termcareandinsurancecoverage.Andwhileprivatecapitalises-sential,excessivecommercializationrisksunderminingequityandaccess.Innovationinhealthcareandbiotechalsocomeswithlongerdevelopmentcy-cles,stricterregulatoryoversightandfargreateruncertaintythanpropertydevel-opment.Theshiftfromacute-caretreat-menttochronic-diseasemanagementrequiressystem-widechangesinwork-forcetraining,insurancereimbursementandtechnologyadoption—changesthatevolvegraduallyratherthanthroughasin-glepolicypush.China’shealtheconomyfacesacuteconstraintsthatmayimpactwhatitcanrealisticallydeliver.Onemajorconstraintisdemandcapacity.SurveysindicatethatChinesehouseholdsarewillingtospendmoreonwellness,rehabilitationandseniorcare,butthisenthusiasmisdampenedbystagnanthouseholdincomegrowthandpersistentlyhighprecautionarysavings.Andtheover-75populationisconcentrat-edinruralareas,whereincomesarelowestandcommercialmodelsleastviable.Equallysignificantarethefiscalpres-suresfacinglocalgovernments.Thecalltointegratehealthintoallpoliciesrequiresexpandedinvestmentinprimarycare,public-healthinfrastructure,environmen-talmanagement,andlong-terminsurancepilots.Yetlocalgovernments,stillreelingfromcollapsinglandrevenuesandrisingsocial-spendingobligations,lackthehead-roomtoscalethesecommitments.Mean-ingfulprogresswillrelyondeeperfiscalreformandafundamentalrebalancingofcentral–localexpenditureresponsibilities.AthirdconstraintisdatagoHealthinnovationreliesonaccesstohigh-qualitylongitudinaldatanomicdatasets,electronicmedicalrecords,claimsinformationandreal-worldevidence.ButChina’sregulatoryregimesforhealdataremainfragmented,andcross-borderdataflowshavebecomeincreasinglyrestric-tive.Theimpulsetobuilda“closedpharmaecosystemrisksobstructingexactlythekindsofinternationalcollaboraunderpinworld-classbiomedicalinnovation.Breakthroughsciencedependsondiversepatientcohorts,harmonizedstandards,re-producibledataandincultivateinaclosedsystem.Thesameinvolutionarypressuresthathaveproducedovercapacityinelectricve-hicles,solarpanelsandbatteriesarealsocausingstructuralheadwindsinbiomed-icine.Chinesebiotechfirmsexcelatrapiditeration,cost-efficientdevelopmentand“me-too”optimization,buttheecosystemstillstrugglestogeneratetruefirst-in-classbreakthroughs.CrowdedfieldssuchasPD-(L)1,ADCsandcelltherapiesexhibitintenseduplication,resultinginfastheadlinegrowthbutthinnerdrugpipelines.Pricingpressuresexacerbatetheproblem:NationalReim-bursementDrugListnegotiationsoftenim-posepricecutsexceeding60%,expandingaccesstomedicinebutcompressingmar-ginsanddampeningincentivesforhigh-riskearlydiscovery.Withoutdeeperreimburse-mentreform,domesticfirmswillcontinuetorelyheavilyonearlyout-licensingratherthanbuildingafullinnovation-to-commer-cializationcycleathome.China’sbiotechboomhighlightsbthepromiseandthelimitationsofthehealtheconomy.Thecountrynowaccountsforroughlyone-fourthofglobalclinicaltri-alsandhasbecomecentraltoglobalear-ly-stagepipelines,withdrugssuchasAkeso’sbispecificcheckpointinhibitorandJunshi’storipalimabdemonstratingmean-ingfulscientificcapability.Yetweaknessesremain.TrustinChineseclinicaldata,whileimproving,isnotuniversal.Regulatoryover-sighthasalignedmorewithICHstandardsbutremainsinconsistentlyenforcedacrossprovinces.Inaddition,heightenedscrutinyofChineseCROsandCDMOsabroadhasinjectedgeopoliticaluncertaintyintotheindustriesthataremostgloballyintegrated.Finally,thehealtheconomyfacesase-vereworkforcebottleneck.Educationandtrainingsystemshavenotkeptpacewiththegrowingneedfornurses,geriatriccare-givers,rehabilitationspecialistsandprima-ry-carephysicians.Careworkcontinuestobeundervaluedandunderpaidrelativetoitssocialimportance.Withoutsustainedinvestmentinhuman-capitalinvestment,thehealthsectorcannotgrowatthescalepolicymakersenvision.centraldriverThereisnoperfectsubstitutefortherealestatesector’sscale,speedorfiscalimpact,butBigHealthstandsout.Itsdemandbaseislarge,persistentandstructurallydriven.Itspansbothmanufacturingandservices,bridgestraditionalandemergingindustries,andinvolvesamixofpublicandprivatepro-vision.Andunlikefrontiertech,itisbroadenoughtoinfluenceemployment,con-sumptionandinvestmentsimultaneously.China’smostplausiblepathoverthenextdecadeislikelytobeadiversifiedeconomicmix:asmallerpropertyfootprint,moredisciplinedindustrialpolicy,targetedinvestmentinfrontiertechnologies,andex-pandinghealth-relatedservices.BigHealthwon’trecreatethefrenzyofthepropertyboom,butitmayquietlybecomethepillarthatdefinesChina’snextdecade.IPOLICYPOLICYInterviewedbyStephanieSamCoryCoryCombsisHeadofCriticalMineralandSupplyChainResearchAssociateDirectoratpoliticaleconomyresearchfirmTriviumChina.Heoverseesthecompany’scross-cuttingclimate,energy,andindustrialpolicyresearchandrunsitssupplychainriskadvisoryservices,supportinggovernmentagencies,multinationalmanufacturers,miningcompanies,andinvestorsonChinapolicyandstrategy.Previously,heworkedonenergytechnologycommercializationattheUSDepartmentofEnergy(DOE),wherehewasontheriskmanagementteamfortheDOELoanProgramsOffice’s$20billioninvestmentportfolio.CorystudiedphysicsatYaleUniversityandreceivedhismaster’sfromJohnsHopkinsSAIS,wherehestudiedenergyeconomicsandChinesepolitics.HeisamemberoftheNationalCommitteeonU.S.-ChinaRelations.centUSeffortsbeenatbuildingcriticalmineralsproductionandproceingcapacity?Whichmineralsorcompo-nentsrepresentthegreateststrAspertheUS-ChinatruceinNovember,theUShassuspendedtheBureauofIndus-year,easingimmediatecomplianceburdensforUSindustriesrelyingonChinesecriticalminerals.ButtheUSundabilitytodiversifythemomentitechnologycontrolstrategywithpredictableconsequences.ItwaswidelyanticipatedthatBeijingwouldrespondtoUStradeandttobeamongChina’sstrongestsourcesofleverage.Ifyoupursueastrategywithfore-seeableretaliation,itwouldbestrategicallysilienceinadvance.Thatresult,theUSwasbehindfromthestWinter2026tosecuretheneodymWinter20269it’snotyetclearhowfarthwillwanttogo.AfewmajorprojectscouldhelptheUSmeetmilitarydemand(asmallfractionoftotaldemand)relativelyquickly,perhapswithinacoupleofyears.Butlarge-scalediversification,coveringcommercialapplications,willtakemuchlonger.Scalingvariouspolicy,technological,andaboveallfinancialuncertainties.Thesecanbeover-Thecorevulnerabilityliesinheavyrareearths,likedysprosium,yttriumbium;theUSlacksbothappreciabledo-mesticreservesandprocessingcapacity.Thesearetypicallyusedinsmallquantitiesasadditives,especiallytomakepermanentmagnetsstableunderhightemperaturesorextremestress.Suchmagnetsareessentialforhigh-performanceapplicationsfromau-tomotivesandaerospacetowindturbinesandadvancedweaponry.muchoftherawsupplyofheavyrareearths.Currently,viablealternativesarelimited.Lynas,anAustralianminerprocessinginMalaysiaandlargelysellingtoJapan,istheonlycommercial-scaleheavyrareearthprocessoroutsideChina,butitcanglobaldemandalone.Braziloffersanothoption.TheUShasjustsignedagreementswithBrazilianrareearthsproduroughlyUS$400million.BrazilianextractioniscommerciallyviablebutitsprocessingreliesonChina.ContractshtiatedsoBrazilcanselltothers,butsincesofewactorscanprocesshingesonhoweffectivelynon-Chinesepro-cessingcanscale,atLynasandbeyond.tainmineralswhilegrantingbroadlicens-combinationofrestrictionandsopennessintermsofthetionsforglobalsupplychBroadlyspeaking,weseetheChinesegovernmentashavingtwocoreobjectivescies,particularlyUStechcontrols.Thesec-withglobalindustry.Expogenerallyintendedtofullysevertrade.Inmostcases,theyarelicensingrequirementshasbeentoapplypressurewithoutcom-pletelycuttingoffChinesecommeners.Youcanseethistensionpthebureaucraticlevel.TheMinistryofCom-mercehasworkedveryhardtostreamlineexportapprovals,inlimitments.Atthesametime,boththeyandChina’ssecurityapparatusaretaskedwithableforbothcivilianandmilitaDependingongeopolitisecuritymandatecanbetightenedorloos-ened,creatinganinherentpuhowlicensesareadministered.Recentgenerallicensesillustratethisdynamic.TheirexistencesignalsagenuineattemptbyBeijingtostrpertheUS-ChinaagreementsoutofBusan,butinpracticetheyintroducenewcompli-cations.UnliketheUSsystem,whichreliesonavalidatedend-userframework,China’scontrolsareappliedtcompaniesarerequiredtovettheirowncistryofCommerce,whichthenevaluatestheexporter’sduediligence.Inpractice,thissetsanextremelybar.IfaChineseexporterhascustomers,orcustomers’customers,withevenapotentialdual-useexposure,approvalsoftenstall.Wehaveseenmidstreammagnetproducersreceiveapprovalforonlyafractionoftheirexportsundertheserules.Insuchcases,obtainingagenerallicensemaybenearlyimpossiblebecauseexporterscannotcon-clusivelydemonstratethatallendusesalignAsaresult,thesystemhasevolvedualtrack.Somelargenationalchampions,suchasJLMag,havesecuredbroadgenerallicensesforautomotiveandconsumerelec-tronicscustomers.Firmstiedtoaerospaceorothersensitivesectors,however,areunlikelycase-by-caseapprovals.TheburdenultimatelyfallsonChineseexporters,whopassthoserequirementsCommercecannotverifyanenduser,theExporters,inturn,demandextensivedoc-umentationfromtheircustcases,thishasincludedrequestsforphotoevidenceofoverseasfactories’operations,POLICYPOLICYstandablyreluctanttoshare.Theprocessispoliticallyconsequentialregionsforcriticalmineralstoday,whichwouldyoustandablyreluctanttoshare.Theprocessispoliticallyconsequentialregionsforcriticalmineralstoday,whichwouldyouchooseandwhy?isChinaitself.Thatmaysoundobvious,evenpassé,ofgeologicalresources,thewaytheUSandMiddleEasthaveamplefossilfuels.Thatreinforcedbydecadesofsustainedinvestmentinex-pertise,capitalandindustricapacity.ThesecondisSoutheastgeologicalreality,whichdoesnotrespectnationalborders.IndoneMalaysia,andVietnamallhavemeaningfulrareearthresources,alongsid