mckinsey -管理关键的地缘政治价值以抓住机遇并降低风险 Managing geopolitical value at stake to seize opportunities while mitigating risk

April2026

Mcsey

&company

GeopoliticsPractice

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk

Assessingtheenterprisevaluelinkedtogeopoliticalshiftsandembracingagilitycanhelpmultinationalcompaniesthriveinavolatileandfragmentedworld.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyCindyLevy,ShubhamSinghal,MattWatters,BrookeWeddle,andMadeleineGoerg,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sGeopoliticsandPeople&OrganizationalPerformancePractices.

Rapidgeopoliticalshiftsareexposingmultinationalcorporations(MNCs)towell-documentedrisks,buttheyarealsoopeningvitalarenasforgrowth.ThispresentsCEOswithadualmandate:toseizeopportunitiesinnewmarketsand

tradecorridors

whilemanagingtheirorganizations’

geopoliticalexposureandassociatedrisks.Companiesthatmovequicklycanusetheforcesreshapingtheglobalorder—from

regionalrealignments

to

industrial-policymeasures

—to

expandingrowingeconomiessuchasIndiaandVietnam,accessbillionsofdollarsinindustrialsubsidiesandinvestmentincentives,andgainmarketsharefromslower-movingcompetitors.Conversely,MNCsthatdon’trespondtogeopoliticallydrivenshiftsmayseetheirenterprise

valueerodedbytariffcosts,supplychainandoperationaldisruptions,andotherchallenges.

Duringarecentseriesofinterviewswithmorethan15CEOsofMNCs,wefoundbusinessleadersgrapplingwithaconfoundingnewbusinessenvironment.“EveninmarketsIonceconsidered

stable,wenowhavetoaccountforgeopoliticalfactors,”saystheCEOofanautomotivecompany.Echoingthisuncertainty,theheadofaUStechnologycompanynotes,“Inourstrategicplanningmeetings,wehadintensedebatesaboutwhethertheshiftsareatemporalphenomenonor

whetherthere’smorepermanence.”Theconsensusisthatgeopoliticalvolatilityisnolongerepisodic—it’sthenewoperatingnorm.

TwostepscanhelpCEOsgainanedgeoncompetitors,ourresearchsuggests:first,quantifythevalueatstakelinkedtogeopoliticaldevelopmentstoguidegrowthstrategiesandmanagerisk;andsecond,developtheorganizationalagilityneededtorespondquicklytonewopportunitiesandrisksastheyarise.

Assessinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoguidestrategicbetsandriskmanagement

GeopoliticaldevelopmentscansignificantlyaffectMNCs’enterprisevalue—bothpositivelyandnegatively.Ontheupside,shiftscanopennewmarketsorboostdemand,rewardingcompaniesthatcanadjustproductionvolumesandpricesquickly.Forexample,afterRussia’sinvasion

ofUkraine,Europe’seffortstosecurenon-Russiangasdramaticallyreshapedthemarketforliquefiednaturalgas(LNG).UScompaniesthatwereabletoredirectsupplybenefitedfromtheseeffortsandraisedtheUSshareofEuropeanLNGimportsfrom27percentin2021to

48percentin2023.

1

Similarly,Norway’sEquinoremergedasEurope’stopnaturalgassupplier

afterexpandingproductiontomeethigherdemand,increasingrevenuebymorethan60percentbetween2021and2022.

2

However,thesamegeopoliticalforcesthatfuelgrowthcanalsoerodevalue.Forexample,Intelcutitsrevenueoutlookin2024inpartduetotheUSDepartmentofCommercerevokingthe

company’slicensetosellcertainsemiconductorstoHuawei.

3

Morerecently,JaguarLandRoverreportedthata27.5percentUStariff,combinedwithnegativeforeignexchangetrends,reduceditsEBITmarginfrom8.9to4.0percentinasinglequarter.

4

Despitethemagnitudeofthevalueatstake,fewMNCsrigorouslymeasureit.Forinstance,62percentofcompanieswestudiedconsiderUS–Chinatradetensions,tariffs,andexport

1“TheUnitedStatesremainedthelargestliquefiednaturalgassuppliertoEuropein2023,”UnitedStatesEnergyInformationAdministration,February29,2024.

2RonBoussoandSimonWebb,“CERAWEEK-Europegassuppliestostaytight2morewinters,EquinorCEOsays,”Reuters,March7,2023.

3MackenzieHawkinsandErikWasson,“USrevokesIntel,QualcommlicensestosellchipstoHuawei,”Bloomberg,May8,2024.

4“JLRdelivers11thsuccessiveprofitablequarteramidchallengingglobaleconomicconditions,”JLR,August8,2025.

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk2

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk3

controlstobematerialthreats,butonly29percenthavequantifiedthepotentialimpact,forgoingopportunitiestotransformgeopoliticalvolatilityintoacompetitiveadvantage.

Estimatingtheenterprisevaluelinkedtogeopoliticalshiftsrequiresfirstunderstandingthe

company’sgeopoliticalprofile.Varioustoolscanservethispurpose,butinthisarticle,werelyonthe

geopoliticaldistanceindex

,ameasureofgeopoliticalalignmentdevelopedbytheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)basedoncountries’votingrecordsintheUNGeneralAssembly.

5

MGI’s

researchshowsthattheaveragegeopoliticaldistancebetweencountriesengagedintradeandforeigndirectinvestmenthasfallen.

6

Ouradditionalanalysisindicatesthatmorethan90percentofMNCsareexposedtocountrieswhosepoliticalanddiplomaticpositionsdivergesignificantlyfromthoseoftheirhomegovernments.InEurope,forexample,theshareofcompanieswith

exposuretogeopoliticallydistantcontextshasrisento95percent,from78percent;inAsia,ithasgrownto90percent,from85percent.

Quantifyinggeopoliticalvalueatstakecombinesgeopoliticaldistanceandfinancial-exposuremetrics(Exhibit1).Theprocessinvolvesassessingtherevenuefromeachmarket,applying

aprobabilityweightbasedonthemarket’sgeopoliticaldistancefromthecompany’shome

market(aproxyfordivergence),andadjustingtheresultbyaseverityfactorthatreflects

theimpactofstabilizingmechanismssuchasfreetradeagreements,tariffpreferences,or

morepermissiveexportcontrolenvironments.TheoutcomehelpsinformCEOs’strategies

byprovidingadirectional,order-of-magnitudeviewofwherebusinessescanprotectand

unlockvaluethroughaproactivegeopoliticalresponse(seesidebar,“McKinsey’sapproachtoquantifyinggeopoliticalvalueatstake”).

Exhibit1

Formulaforcalculatinggeopoliticalvalueatstake(eg,ofageography,function,etc)

∑iMagnitudeofcorporatevaluei

×Severityadjustmenti

×

Geopoliticaldistancei

10

McKinsey&Company

Magnitudeofcorporatevalue:theamountofrevenuetiedtoageographyorfunctioni(forexample,salesinthatmarket)

Geopoliticaldistance:thedivergencebetweenthecompany’shomejurisdictionandgeographyionthegeopolitical-alignmentspectrum(scaled0–10,withhighernumbersrepresentinggreaterdivergence)

Severityadjustment:factor0to1,capturinghowthetradeandpolicyenvironmentintradecorridoridampens

(closerto0)theimpactofgeopoliticaldevelopments—asthroughpreferredtradeagreements,reducednontariffbarriers,orlicensingcarve-outs—oramplifies(closerto1)throughmeasuressuchasinvestmentprotectionsorexportcontrols

5Theindexisbasedontheperiodbetween2005and2022andusesprincipal-componentanalysistomapeachvotingcountryonaone-dimensionalvotingspectrumrangingfromzerototen.

6“

TheFDIshake-up:Howforeigndirectinvestmenttodaymayshapeindustryandtradetomorrow

,”McKinseyGlobalInstitute,September22,2025.

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk4

McKinsey’sapproachtoquantifyinggeopoliticalvalueatstake

GlobeLens,McKinsey’sAI-powered

geopoliticsplatform,alongsidethe

McKinseyValueIntelligencePlatform,

helpsmultinationalcorporationssize

theirgeopoliticalvalueatstakeand

prioritizeactions.Ourproprietaryassets

alsoidentifyrelevantindustrial-policy

incentives,tariffmitigationlevers,

growthopportunitiesinhigh-valuetradecorridors,andwaystorepositionglobalmanufacturingfootprints.Theanalysishelpsleadersmovebeyondbroadrisk

narrativestodata-backed,decision-readyinsightsonwheretoreconfigureassets,

shiftsupply,pursuegrowth,andbuildcontingencyplans.

Inpractice,exposuretogeopoliticallydistantgeographieswithoutstabilizingmechanismssuchastradeagreementscantranslateintomateriallyhighervalueatstakethanwhensuch“shockabsorbers”areinplace.Forexample,theEU–MercosurPartnershipAgreement,7whichaimstoremove90percentofdutiesonEUgoodsexportedtoMercosurcountriesandcurtailnontariffbarriers,mayreducethevalueatstakeforcompaniesengagedinthosemarketsunderthe

agreementbyloweringtheseverityoffuturegeopoliticaldisruptionaffectingthoseeconomies.

Participatingingeopoliticallydistantmarketsrequiresleaderstoassessnotonlythedemand

andoperatingcostsinthosemarketsbutalsothedurabilityofrelationsbetweentheeconomies.Forexample,emergingmarketsinAfrica,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast,andSoutheastAsia

accountforagrowingshareofglobaldemand,representingattractivegrowthopportunities,

butmanyaregeopoliticallydistantfromWesterncapitals.Thisdistancecantranslateinto

divergentdatalocalizationrules,supplychainrestrictions,regulatoryunpredictability,andlossofoperationalcontrol,amongotherchallenges.

Toassesspotentialvalueswingsassociatedwithgeopoliticallydistantmarkets,leadersneedtoevaluatetheimpactofshocksondemand,costs,andcapital.Thismeanssizingnotonlydemandandoperatingcostsbutalsothedurabilityofrelationsacrossbordersandthelikelihoodof

suddenshiftsindatalocalizationrulesorinvestmentscreeningpolicies,forexample.What’smore,theyshoulddosonotonlyattheenterpriselevelbutalsobyfunction.

Measuringgeopoliticaldistancebyfunction

Geopoliticalshiftshaveuniqueimplicationsforeverybusinessfunction.“[Geopolitics]isnolongerarisk-onlytopic,”saystheCEOofaglobalchemicalcompany.“We’rebuildinggeopoliticalawarenessintocommercial,accounting,compliance,strategy,finance,andoperations.”Suchstepshelpensurethattheabilitytointerpretgeopoliticalsignalsis

embeddedacrosstheenterprise.

Thewaygeopoliticsaffectsbusinessfunctionsvariesaroundtheworld.Weanalyzedmorethan150multinationalcompanies’exposuretothreegeopoliticallydistantBRICS(Brazil,Russia,

India,China)economies—China,India,andRussia—andfoundthatEuropeanMNCstendto

havehigherexposuretothesegeopoliticallydistantgeographiesacrossmultiplefunctions,

particularlytechnologyandworkforce,thanMNCsbasedintheUnitedStates.NorthAmerican

companies,meanwhile,havehigherexposureinITandtalent,reflectingboththeirheavyreliance

7TheEU–MercosurPartnershipAgreementhasnotyetbeenratifiedbymemberstates.

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk5

onforeigndigitalinfrastructureandwidelydispersedworkforces(Exhibit2).Adeeperlookateachcorefunctionrevealsvaryingtrade-offsandlevelsofgeopoliticalexposure:

—Technology.GloballydistributeddigitalinfrastructureiscommonamongMNCs,enabling

themtoquicklyexpandintonewmarketsortradecorridors.However,thisapproachadds

burdenssuchastheneedtocomplywithdisparatedatalocalizationandprivacylaws.“It’snotjustabouthavingseparatelegalentitiestomaintainaccesstodifferentmarkets,”saysthe

CEOofatechnologyMNC.“It’sabouthavingacompletelydifferenttechstacktocomplywithlocalregulations.Thecostofdoingbusinessgloballyhasjustgonethroughtheroof.”The

leaderofaEuropeanconsumergoodscompanysaysthatthedivergingmarketstandardshavedoubledortripledthecompany’stechnologycosts.Inoursample,about40percentofMNCshadnotechnologyexposuretoChina,India,orRussia;roughly30percentwereexposedtoacombinationofChinaandRussia;andtheremainderweremainlyexposedtoIndia,acommonhubforMNCs’outsourcedIT.

—Workforce.Manycompaniestodayhavethemajorityoftheiremployeesoutsidetheirhome

countries.“Ourphilosophyhasalwaysbeentofindthebesttalentwhereitexistsandconnectthemintoglobalteams,”saystheCEOofaUS-basedinformationservicesmultinational.

However,leadersfaceconflictingtrendsandcomplextrade-offs:AdvancesinAIanddigitalcollaborationexpandaccesstoglobalskillpoolsthatenablefastcapabilityscaling,but

tighteningregulationsaroundworkforcemobilityarelimitinghiringflexibility.“Mobilityofseniortalentisbecomingharder,”saystheCEOofaNorthAmericanmedical-products

Exhibit2

ITandworkforcearethefunctionsmostexposedtogeopoliticalshifts.

ShareofcompaniesgeopoliticallyexposedtoChina,India,andRussia,byregionandfunction,1%

62

Otherregions3Asia6

Europe13

NorthAmerica40

43

2

4

11

26

36

2

6

11

17

35

2

9

8

16

34

2

4

8

20

ITWorkforceManufacturingRevenueSupplychain

footprint

1Outofadatabaseincluding167privateandpubliccompanies,includingmostglobal100companiesbymarketcap(NorthAmerica:n=104,Europe:n=37,Asia:n=24,otherregions:n=2).

Source:McKinseyanalysisofcompanypublicfilingsusingGlobeLens

McKinsey&Company

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk6

company,notingthataChinesememberoftheleadershipteamstruggledtorenewtheirvisa.WhileChinahasbeenagloballaborhubforseveraldecades,fewerthan20percentofthe

MNCswestudiedemploytalenttheretoday.Ofthose,60percentalsohaveemployeesinIndia,suggestingdeliberatediversificationtomitigatetheriskofconcentration.

—Manufacturing.Amanufacturingfootprintinagrowingmarketcanbeanunassailable

advantage,oftendeliveringshareandmargingainsviascaleandcostefficiency.ManyMNCsestablishedfacilitiesingrowingmarketssuchasNorthAfricaandEasternEurope,withthoseinvestmentsfurtheredbyregionaltradeagreements.However,excessiveconcentrationin

oneregioncancarryamaterialriskofdisruption.Ouranalysisshowsthat41percentofMNCshavemorethanhalftheirproductioncapacityinasingleregion,oftenAsia.Somecompanieshaverespondedbyreducingsuchconcentrationpoints.“We’removingtowardregional

manufacturingandmarket-for-marketstrategies,”saystheCEOofthemedical-productscompany.“We’vebeentransitioningtoChina-onlyoperations,throughjointventures,since2023,seeingitastherightstrategicmoveevenbeforethenew[US]tariffs.”

—Supplychain.Reconfiguringsupplychainscanhelpensurecontinuity,improve

responsiveness,andexpandaccesstosupplierecosystemsalignedwithgrowingtrade

corridors.Morethan90percentoftheMNCswestudiedrefertosupplychaindisruptionasacriticalthreat,andalmosthalfexplicitlyflagrisksofregionalsupplierconcentration

inpublicfilings.

8

Toboostsupplyresilience,manyarebuildingalternateorduplicate

sourcesfortheirkeyinputsorreroutingtheirsupplynetworks.Forexample,priortothe

implementationofUStariffslastyear,AppleshiftediPhoneproductionfromChinatoIndiatoensureproductavailabilityintheUnitedStates,evencharteringcargoflightstoship

approximately1.5millioniPhonesthere.

9

Havingquantifiedthevalueatstakeforeachfunction,leaderscansetthresholdsforthegeopoliticalexposuretheycantolerate.Thisistypicallyathree-stepprocess:

—Establishbaselineconcentrationguidance.Thisguidancesetsthetone,signalingthe

organization’soverallposture,wheregeopoliticalexposureismaterial,andwhereitshould

beaddressed.“Wedidadeepdiveonportfolios,reallyquestioningproducts,countries,ourfootprint—therewerenosacredcows,”saystheCEOofaEuropeanhealthcareMNC.“We

asked,doweneedtobeincertainmarkets?Arewecreatingenoughvalue?”Theguidance

signalstobusinessleadershowandwheretopursuegrowthandwhatlevelofrisktotake.

Forexample,inresponsetorisingtradetensionsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,TeslahasmandatedthatallsuppliersexcludeChina-madematerialsfromvehiclesdestinedfortheUSmarket.

10

—Quantifyhow(andwhere)geopoliticalexposurecreatesopportunitiesandrisks.Exposuretogeopoliticallydistantmarketsmaybeacceptablewhenbarrierstoentryarerelativelylow,asitisfordigitalservicesorsoftwarewithouton-the-groundpresence.Similarly,ifbarrierstoexitorriskofstrandedcapitalarelow—inestablishinglocalcustomersupportormovingglobalsupportfunctionstolow-costgeographies,forexample—leadersmaybewilling

toaccepthighgeopoliticaldistance.Incontrast,companieswithcapital-intensiveassets,

8McKinseyGlobeLensanalysisofsupplychainriskinpublicfilingsofMNCs.

9MeganCerullo,“Appleairliftsmorethan1millioniPhonesoutofIndiatoavoidTrumptariffs,Reutersreports,”CBSNews,April10,2025.

10“TeslarequiressupplierstoavoidChina-madepartsforUScars,WSJreports,”Reuters,November15,2025.

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk7

highregulatoryburdens,oroperationsinpoliticallysensitivesectorswouldtendtohavea

lowertoleranceforgeopoliticaldistance.“Themorecriticaltheindustryisseentobetothesovereigntyofacountry,themorepressuretherewillbe[tocreate]localentitieswithlocalgovernancestructures,”saystheCEOofaglobalsocialmediaservice.Sincemanufacturingfacilities,datainfrastructure,andspecializedtalentaredifficulttoshiftacrossborders,theyareespeciallyvulnerabletosuddenpolicyshifts.

—Consideractionstolowerexposure.Thisstepismostrelevantwhenthepotentialdownsideishighandhardtoremediate,aswithdifficult-to-relocateassetsorregulatoryconstraintsthatlimitadaptation,suchasexportcontrols.Forexample,giventhechipfabrication

concentrationinTaiwan,geopoliticaluncertaintyaroundTaiwan–Chinarelations(and

China–USrelations)isacriticalvulnerabilitythatsomesemiconductorcompaniesaretryingtoaddress.TSMC,forexample,announcedplanstobuildfabricationplantsinJapanand

GermanywhilealsoexpandingproductionatitsUSfacilities.11Althoughcostly,suchmovesreducethecompany’sconcentrationriskwhilepreservingitsabilitytoserve(andgrow)innewmarkets.

Developorganizationalagilitytoreactquicklytogeopoliticalshifts

AgilityiscentraltotheCEO’sdualmandate—itboostsacompany’sabilitytocapturegrowth

opportunitieswhilereducingriskfromexposuretogeopoliticallydistantmarkets.“Whatmattersmostistheabilitytomobilize,”saystheCEOofafinancial-servicesMNC.“Whenacrisishitsoranopportunityopens,weneedtohavebothon-the-groundcapabilitiestostandupateamandtheconnectionstoheadquarterssowecanstrategicallyengagewithoutslowingdownthebusiness.”

Toexpandthisagility,leadingMNCsaregoingbeyondtacticalfixes:They’reregionalizing

production,diversifyingsuppliers,renegotiatingcontracts,andlocalizingtheirtechnology.

“Weseeastrategicopportunitytoleverageregionalblocks,”saystheCEOofaninformation

servicescompany.“Ourlargemanufacturingfootprintnowpresentsanopportunitytolocalize.”AglobalagricultureMNC,meanwhile,hasresetitsoperatingmodel:Whenvolatilityspikes,theorganizationcentralizesriskandcompliance;asconditionsstabilize,itpushesdecisionrights

backtoregionalandlocalunits.

Atatimeofacceleratinggeopoliticalfragmentation,optimizingefficiencyaloneisnotsufficient—competitiveadvantagerequiresflexibilityandredundancyacrossfunctions.Agileorganizationspresettriggerstomitigateriskandcaptureupside,allowingthemtooperateingeopolitically

riskyenvironmentslongerthantheirpeerscan.Forexample,oneconsumerproductsMNC

rerouteditssupplychainthreetimesinresponsetochangingtariffs—onlytobecaughtoutwhenpolicychangedagain.“Inolongerknewwhere[ajurisdiction]wassafeforinputsfromacost

perspective,”saystheCEO.“I’minalow-marginbusiness,andthisisamatterofsurvival.”TheCEO’stakeaway?Stopchasing“perfect”low-marginlocationsandinsteaddesignforvolatilitybybuildingflexibilitythroughdual-andmultisourcing,prequalifiedalternativesuppliers,andcontractsthatallowvolumestoshiftquicklyacrosslocations.

11JohnRuwitch,“Aspoliticalwindsshift,topchipmakerTSMClooksbeyondTaiwan,”npr,December1,2025.

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk8

ManyMNCsaremakingsimilarinvestmentsinagility(Exhibit3).Amongthecompanies

westudied,78percentaregeographicallydiversifyingtheirsupplychains,41percentare

establishingregionalmanufacturinghubs,and32percentarebuildinginventorybuffersandimplementingdual-sourcingplans.“We’renotretreatingfrombeingglobal,”saystheCEOofaglobalindustrialcompany.“We’replanningourfuturemanufacturingfootprinttobemorepurposeful—alignedtoourlargestcustomersandcapabilitiesthatdrivevalue.”

FourstepscanhelpCEOsimprovetheircompanies’agility—gatheringgeopoliticalinsights

andcreatingdashboards,developingregionalintelligence-gatheringcapabilities,determiningpreplannedoffensiveanddefensiveactions,andensuringrapiddecision-makingtorespondtoopportunitiesandshocks:

—Geopoliticalinsightsanddashboards.Organizationsthatsystematically

gathergeopolitical

insightsfrombroadecosystemsofsources

cantranslatethosesignalsintoexposure

dashboards,scenarios,andthresholdsthatautomaticallytriggermitigationactions.“The

newscycleisdistracting,”saystheCEOofanenergyandutilitiescompany.“Weneed

clarityonwhat[geopoliticalshifts]aremateriallyaffectingourbusiness.”Forexample,DHL

Exhibit3

Companiesareusingarangeofmeasurestoimprovetheirorganizationalagility.

Riskmitigationstrategiesadopted,%ofcompanies

Financial

Supplychain

Tari仟

hedging

94

diversification

78

mitigation

44

Supplychaindiversificationactionstaken,Tari仟mitigationactionstaken,

%ofcompanies%ofcompanies

41

Local-for-local

manufacturing

strategies

32

Inventorybu仟ersor

dualsourcingfor

criticalcomponents

44

Directpriceincreases

38

Supplier

renegotiation

19

Dutydrawbackor

tradeprogram

utilization

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

Source:McKinseyanalysisofcompanypublicfilingsusingGlobeLens

McKinsey&Company

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk9

establishedaGlobalConnectednessTrackerthatmonitorstradepolicy,sanctions,cross-

borderdisruptions,andothergeopoliticaldevelopments.12Tobeeffective,suchteamsneedtocontinuouslyassesstheimplicationsofdifferentscenariosforrevenue,manufacturing,

supplychain,technology,andtalentandregularlyengagewithlocalpartnersandregulators.

—Regionalintelligence-gatheringcapabilities.Regionalleadersarewellpositionedto

monitorlocalgeopoliticaldevelopmentsandsharetheirintelligencewithmanagement.

“Weneedtohavebootsonthegroundtoseeifthereareanyissuesintheprocessesand

proceduresonthehospitalfloor,”saystheCEOoftheEuropeanhealthcarecompany.

SomeMNCsaredevelopingcurriculatotrainexecutivesontheimplicationsoftariffs,newtradecorridors,andothergeopoliticstopics.“Myentireleadershipacrossthebusinesshastogetsavvyaboutgeopolitics,”saysaCEOofamultinationalagriculturalsupplier.Such

initiativeshelpensureacontinuousflowoffrontlineinsights,enablingmanagementtoadjustquickly.

—Preplannedoffensiveanddefensiveactions.Preparingsetsofactionsinresponseto

triggereventscanhelpcompaniesmobilizetocaptureopportunitiesormitigaterisks.This

preparationcouldinvolvevettingpotentialpartnersinmarketsthatmayseedemandspikes,prequalifyingsuppliersandadaptinglogisticsrouting,orassessingoptionsforcentralizingorlocalizingsensitivefunctions.Indoingso,agileorganizationscanpreservestrategicfreedomasgeopoliticalconditionsshift.

—Rapiddecision-makingtorespondtoopportunitiesandcrises.Whenexternal

shockshit,theabilitytolaunch

cross-functionalnervecenters

withinhourscanhelpcompaniesorchestrateinformationflowbetweenlocalteamsandheadquarters.Some

MNCsarerunningscenarioexercisesthatsimulatequickdecision-makingaroundpricingresetsorproductionshifts,forexample.Clarifyingdecisionrightsinadvance—ontopicssuchasreallocatingproductvolumes,reroutingtradeflows,orrepricingofferings—

anddevolvingthosedecisionstolocalteamswhenspeedmatters(withguardrailsandescalationtriggersinplace)canfurtherboostresponsivenesswhenconditionschangerapidly.

MNCleaderswhoassesstheirmarkets’geopoliticaldistanceandquantifythevalueatstake,thenpairthatwithstepstodeveloprobustagility,arebestpositionedtotoleratehigherlevelsofgeopoliticalexposure(Exhibit4).Theycanestablish“tolerancecurves”acrossfunctions,

withgenerallyhighertoleranceforgeopolitical