伯恩斯坦-全球能源存储：如何通过太阳能储能为人工智能供电 Global Energy Storage How to power AI with solar-plus-storage

15June2026

GlobalEnergyStorage

GlobalEnergyStorage:HowtopowerAIwithsolar-plus-storage

BrianHo,CFA

+85221232615

brian.ho@

NeilBeveridge

,Ph.D.

+85221232648

neil.beveridge@

KelvinYuan,Ph.D.,CFA

+85221232612

kelvin.yuan@

Theindustryhaslongviewedsolar-plus-storageasinsufficientforbaseloadpower

particularlyfor24/7AI-drivendemand.MasdarandEWEC’sgigascalesolar-plus-storageprojectchallengesthisviewwiththeworld’sfirstdeploymentoffirmrenewablepoweratscale.Ouranalysisleavesusincrementallymoreconstructiveonsolar-plus-storageasacompetitivesourceofbaseloadpower,withSungrowandCATLaskeybeneficiaries.

Solar-plus-storagecandeliverbaseloadreliabilityatscale.UAE’sMasdarandEWECarebuilding5.2GWofsolarcombinedwith19GWhofstorage(19hoursduration)to

deliver~1GWofcontinuouspower,withcompletiontargetedby2027.Basedonour

analysis,thesystemcouldachieve~99.6%systemreliability,representingastructuralshiftinrenewablesfromintermittentenergysourcestoprovidersoffirmcapacity.

Economicsarecompetitivenessparticularlyforhighergaspricemarkets.Whiletheupfrontcapexishighat~$6,000/kW,solar-plus-storagebenefitsfromlowoperatingcostsandzerofuelexposure.AtanestimatedLCOEof$97/MWhfortheproject,solar-plus-

storagecancompetewithgas-firedpoweratgaspriceof~$8/mmbtuorhigher.At12-hourstoragescenario,theLCOEfallstoaround$80/MWhwhichcanstillachievehighsystem

reliabilityof95%.Theattractivenessofsolar-plus-storageasbaseloadisimportantgivenongoingvolatilityanddisruptioninglobalgassupply.Thatsaid,westillbelievegas-firedpowerisfavoredinregionswithabundantlowcostgassupplysuchastheUS.

Fasterdeploymentversusgasandnuclearisakeyadvantage.Solarandstorage

projectscanbedeliveredinroughlytwoyears,comparedwithcurrentgasturbinelead

timesofaroundfouryearsduetosupplyconstraints,andevenlongertimelinesfornuclear,typicallysixyearsormore.

Thekeyconstraintisaccesstohighsolarirradianceandland.Whilethesystemis

replicable,wethinkitisstilllimitedtosolar-richregionswithabundant,low-costland.Thisprojectalonerequires~60km²ofland—roughlythesizeofManhattan—highlightingthesignificantphysicalfootprintrequiredtodeliverfirmrenewablepoweratscale.

Storageistheprimarydriverofsystemeconomicsratherthansolar.ESSaccountforroughlyhalfoftotalprojectcapex,meaningcostcompetitivenessisprimarilydrivenbystoragecost,efficiency,andperformanceratherthanmodulepricing.

WeexpectglobalESSdemandtogrowat~34%CAGRoverthenextfiveyears,

drivenbytheneedforfirmingrenewablegenerationandgridstability.Withinthe

valuechain,CATLleadsinESSbatterysupplyandtechnology,whileSungrowisakey

playerinsystemintegration,inverters,andbroaderpowerconversionsolutions,positioningbothasprimarybeneficiariesofthisstructuralshift.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:14Jun202621:30UTCCompletionDate:12Jun202611:50UTC

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

brian.ho@

15June2026

BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

12Jun2026

TTM

ReportedEPSReportedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing Price

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur2025A2026E2027E

2025A2026E2027E

300750.CH(CATL)

O

CNY

394.85

800.00

18.9%

CNY16.1421.9528.77

24.5

18.0

13.7

247540.KS(EcoProBM)

U

KRW

167,800

140,000

32.9%

KRW403.00854.001,963.00

416.4

196.5

85.5

051910.KS(LGChem)

M

KRW

320,000

298,000

20.7%

KRW(13,258.70)2,042.4731,118

(24.1)

156.7

10.3

373220.KS(LGES)

M

KRW

387,000

347,000

(9.9)%

KRW(5,308.10)1,811.049,452.97

(72.9)

213.7

40.9

003670.KS(PoscoFutureM)

U

KRW

188,800

190,000

13.4%

KRW(2,740.96)376.72898.20

(68.9)

501.2

210.2

006400.KS(SDI)

M

KRW

507,000

520,000

168.1%

KRW(9,933.80)2,099.5118,376

(51.0)

241.5

27.6

300274.CH(Sungrow)

O

RMB

148.76

185.00

90.9%

RMB6.558.229.33

22.7

18.1

15.9

002466.CH(TianqiLithium)

O

CNY

62.50

73.00

63.3%

CNY0.283.296.18

221.5

19.0

10.1

9696.HK(TianqiLithium)

O

HKD

47.58

61.00

36.7%

CNY0.283.296.18

145.5

12.5

6.6

034020.KS(DoosanEnerbility)

O

KRW

90,100

95,000

32.8%

KRW173.8845.91687.53

518.2

N/M

131.0

3750.HK(CATL)

M

HKD

670.00

770.00

77.7%

CNY16.1421.9528.77

35.8

26.3

20.1

ASIAX

1,966.72

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspended003670.KS,034020.KSbaseyearis2024;

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

Inastructurallypower-constrainedworld,solar-plus-storageisemergingasanincreasinglyimportantsolutiontodeliverstable,baseload-likepower,particularlyforfast-growingAIanddatacenterdemand.TheMasdarprojectdemonstratesthat,with

sufficientoverbuildandlong-durationstorage,renewablescouldachievehighsystemreliabilitywhileofferingcompetitive

economicsinhighergaspriceenvironments,alongsidethekeyadvantagesofbeingemissions-freeandhavingnofuelprice

risk.Whilescalabilityremainsdependentongeography,landavailability,andgridinfrastructure,theoveralldirectionisclearly

positive,withcostsexpectedtodeclinefurtherthroughscaleandongoingtechnologyimprovements,includingnext-generationbatteriessuchassodium-ion.Asstoragenowdrivessystemeconomicsanddemandcontinuestoaccelerate,weseestrong

upsideforglobalESSdeploymentandrecommendSungrowandCATLaskeybeneficiariesofthisstructuralshift.

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BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

brian.ho@

15June2026

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DETAILS

TheUAE’sMasdarandEWECprojectdemonstratesatscalethatsolar-plus-storagecandeliverfirmbaseloadpower.This

fundamentallyreframestheroleofrenewables:thekeyquestionisnolongerwhethersolarcangeneratecheapenergy,but

whetheritcanreliablymeetacontinuousloadprofilewhenpairedwithsufficientstorageandoverbuild.Theprojectcombines5.2GWofsolarwith19GWhofstoragetodeliver~1GWofcontinuouspower,withcompletiontargetedby2027.This

representsthefirstgigascaleattempttoovercomesolarintermittencythroughsystemdesign,andthereforeservesasakey

proofpointfortheindustry.Wefindthatsolar-plus-storageisincreasinglycostcompetitiveinhighergaspriceenvironments.Atcurrentcostlevels,itcancompetewithgas-firedgenerationwhenfuelpricesareelevated,makingitanattractivealternativeamidvolatilityinglobalgasmarkets.However,gasremainsstructurallyadvantagedinregionswithpersistentlylowfuelcosts,suchastheUS.

EXHIBIT1:Solarplusstorage(12+hours)arecompetitiveagainstgas-firedpowerathighgasprices

LCOE($/MWh)

Levelizedcostofelectricity(US$/MWh)

SpotJKMLNGprice

Solar+storagebaseloadmorecompetitive

SpotHHgasprice

Solar+storagebaseload

lesscompetitive

2468101214161820

Gasprice($/mmbtu)

GasSolar+storage(19hrs)Solar+storage(12hrs)

Solar+Storage(12+hrs)vsCombined-CycleGasPlant

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Weestimatetotalprojectcapexatapproximately$6bnfor1GWoffirmsolar-plus-storagecapacity(or~$6,000/kW).Thiscan

bebroadlybrokendowninto~$0.5bnforsolarmodules,~$0.5bnforinvertersandbalance-of-plant,and~$2.5bnforESS,

withtheremaining~$2.5bncoveringgrid/electricialinfrastructure,EPC,land,andotherdevelopmentcosts.Thekeytakeaway

isthatwhilesolargenerationitselfisalreadylowcost,storagedominatestheeconomics,accountingforroughlyhalfoftotal

systemcost.Asaresult,thecompetitivenessofbaseloadsolar-plus-storageisprimarilydrivenbybatterycostdeclinesratherthanfurtherreductionsinmodulepricing.ThisreinforcesourviewthatcontinuedcostreductionsinESSwillbethecritical

enablerforscalingfirmrenewablepower.

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

brian.ho@

15June2026

GLOBALENERGYSTORAGEBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4

EXHIBIT2:Weestimatetotalprojectcapexatapproximately$6bn(or~$6,000/kW).Energystoragedominatestheeconomics

Projectcost($bn)for5.2GWsolar+19GWhstorage=1GWbaseloadpower

US$bn

$2.5

$2.5

$0.5

$0.5

SolarmoduleInverterandBOPESS(excl.EPC)Other(Electrical,EPC,Land)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Projectdeveloper

CATLandSungrowarecoveredbyBernstein.AllothercompaniesarenotcoveredbyBernstein.

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

Solar-plus-storageisemergingasacrediblealternativetotraditionalbaseloadgeneration,offeringseveraladvantagesover

gasandnuclear,butwithcleartrade-offs.TheMasdarprojectdemonstratesthat,withsufficientoverbuildandlong-duration

storage,renewablescanachievenear-baseloadreliability(~99%uptime),whilealsobenefitingfromfasterdeployment

timelinesof~2yearscomparedto~3–6yearsforgas(giventurbinebottlenecks)and~6+yearsfornuclear.Economically,solar-plus-storageisincreasinglycompetitiveinhighergaspriceenvironments,providingcostcertaintywithoutfuelpriceexposure.However,itremainsconstrainedbygeography,requiringhighsolarirradianceandlargelandfootprints,anditseconomicsare

heavilydependentonbatterycosts,whichaccountfor~50%ofcapex.Bycontrast,gasremainsmoreflexibleandcompetitiveinlow-costfuelmarketssuchastheUS,whilenuclearoffersthehighestlevelofcleanbaseloadreliabilitybutwithsignificantlylongerbuildtimesandhigherexecutionrisk.Assuch,solar-plus-storagecandeliververycompetitivefirmpowerinselect

regions,particularlyfornewdemandsuchasAIanddatacenters.

EXHIBIT3:Comparisonofsolar-plus-storage,gasandnuclearpowerforbaseloadpower

Metric

Solar+Storage(12+hours)

Gas-CCGT

Nuclear

Uptime

~90–99.x%

~95–99.9%

~95–99.9%

LCOE

~$80-100/MWh

~$50/MWh($3.5/mmbtu)

~$110/MWh($12/mmbtu)

~$50-150/MWh

Leadtime~2years~3–6years6+years

Landrequirement

~60km²

~0.02–0.05km²

~1–4km²

CarbonemissionsZero~0.35–0.4tCO₂/MWhNearzero

Fuelrisk

none

gas-highfuelcost

uranium-lowfuelcost

Bottleneck

location,gridconnection

turbinesupply,gassupply

longdevelopment

Assumingabuildfor1GWofbaseloadpowerSource:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

SOLAR-PLUS-STORAGEPROVIDESBASELOADPOWER

TheUAE’sMasdarandEWECprojectrepresentsastep-changeinsolar-plus-storagesystemdesign.Ratherthanoptimizingforpeakshaving,itisengineeredtodeliverround-the-clockbaseloadpower.Bypairing5.2GWofsolarwith19GWhofstorage,

~1GWofcontinuouspoweroutputcanbeachievedtomatchstablepowerloadof1GW.This“abundance”iscritical:excess

middaygenerationisnotcurtailedbutstoredinthebatterysystem(equivalentto~19hoursofduration)anddischargedthrough

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

brian.ho@

15June2026

GLOBALENERGYSTORAGEBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5

theeveningandovernight.Ineffect,theprojectreplacescurtailmentwithenergyshifting,reshapingvariablesolargenerationintoastable,near-continuousoutputprofile.

EXHIBIT4:Bypairing5.2GWofsolarwith19GWhofstorage,1GWofcontinuouspoweroutputcanbeachievedtomatchstableapowerloadof1GW

Source:Companypresentation

Howdoesthiswork?With5.2GWofinstalledsolarcapacity,theprojectcouldgeneratesapproximately12.45TWhofannualsolaroutput,implyinga~27%capacityfactorbasedonthelocalirradianceprofile.Thisequatesto~34GWhperdayofenergyproductionvs.aconstant24GWh/dayloadfor1GWbaseload,highlightingthatthesystemisintentionallyoverbuiltby~40%onanenergybasis.Ofthistotalgeneration,around4.09TWhisusedtodirectlysupplydaytimedemand,while~4.62TWh

isstoredinthebatteryduringthedayanddischargedatnighttimetomaintaincontinuousoutput.Theremaining~3.74TWhrepresentssurplusgeneration,whichservesasheadroomtomeetstoragelosses,seasonalvariability,andsystemreliabilityrequirements.Withthissystem,weestimatea99.6%systemreliabilitycanbeachieved.

EXHIBIT5:Annualpoweroutputoftheproject(TWh).Solarandstorageoverbuiltenablescontinuous1GWoutput

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Wehavecarriedoutananalysisofwhattheoperationsandeconomicswouldlooklikefortheprojectbasedontheregion’s

irradianceprofileandthesystemdesign.BuildingsolarcapacityinUAEofferssignificantadvantagesduetotheregion's

abundantsolarresources,characterizedbyhighsolarirradianceandvastavailableland,enablinglarge-scale,cost-effective

solarpowergeneration.Additionally,favorablegovernmentpolicyandexpandingtransmissioninfrastructuresupportexportofelectricity.Basedontheirradianceprofile,weexpecttheprojectcangenerate12.45TWhofelectricitygenerationwitha1-axistiltandazimuth.Onaverage,theannualcapacityfactorisapproximately27%assumingnocurtailment.

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

brian.ho@

15June2026

GLOBALENERGYSTORAGEBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6

EXHIBIT6:Wehavemodeled5.2GWofsolarcapacity.Thesolarfarmcanachieveanaveragecapacityfactorof27%althoughwehavenotfactoredincurtailmentandpowerload

Capacityfactor(%)

Average=27%

Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-01

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Jan-01

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Solarhassignificantvariabilityincapacityfactorbymonthsandhoursoftheday.Capacityfactorsaregenerallyhigherin

summermonthswithlongerdaylighthoursandstrongersolarirradiance.Solarpowergenerationaretypicallybetween6amto5pmwithpeakgenerationbetween10amto1pmwherethesun’sraystrikesthepanelsmostdirectly.

EXHIBIT7:Solarpowerismostlygeneratedbetween7amto5pm,whichmeansthereisnopowerformorethan12hoursofthedaywithoutstorageorotherpowersource

Capacityfactor(%)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

01234567891011121314151617181920212223

Houroftheday

1234567

89101112Average

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Thehourlygenerationprofilebelowillustratessignificantvolatilityinelectricitygenerationwithoutstorage.Powergenerationdropstozeroduringpeakeveninghours.Fora5.2GWsolarfarm,thesolarprojectcangenerate12.45TWhofelectricity

annually.

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

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EXHIBIT8:Annually,theprojectcouldgenerate12.45TWhofelectricity,althoughthisisinterruptible

Electricitygeneration(MW)

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-01

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Whilethesolarprojectcantheoreticallyachieve27%capacityfactor,realisticallyutilizationislowerduetocurtailmentdrivenbymismatchbetweensupplyanddemand.Afterfactoringacontinuouspowerloadof1GW,solarpowergenerationwould

becurtailedatpeakproductionaroundmidday,assupplyexceedsthedemand.Thismismatchleadstointentionalreductionofsolaroutputtomaintaingridstabilityandpreventoverloads.Curtailmentresultsfromlimitedgridflexibilityandinsufficientstorage.

EXHIBIT9:Whilethesolarprojectcantheoreticallyachieve27%capacityfactor,realisticallyutilizationislowerduetocurtailmentduringmiddaywithoutstorage

PowerGeneration(MW)

Curtailedsolar

NosolartomeetdemandSolarpowerforloadNosolartomeetdemand

01234567891011121314151617181920212223

Houroftheday

SolarpowergenerationPowerload

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Afterfactoringincurtailment,theactualsolarpowergenerationfromtheprojectiseffectivelyreducedtomatchthepowerload

duringmidday.Asaresult,thegenerationprofileshowsloweroutputduringperiodswhenthegridcannotabsorballthesolar

energyproduced.Thismeansthenetgenerationcurveisclippedorflattenedatthesetimes.Consequently,thecurtailment

resultsinlowerprojectrevenueandefficiencymetrics.Afterfactoringinthecurtailment,capacityfactorforthesystemfallsto

9%.

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

brian.ho@

15June2026

GLOBALENERGYSTORAGEBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8

EXHIBIT10:Withoutstorage,thecurtailmentresultsincapacityfactorfallingto9%

Electricitygeneration(MW)

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-01

SolaronlyPowerLoad

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Batterieshelptostoreexcesspoweranddischargeduringhigherpowerloadinthemorningandevening.Sizingbatterystoragealongsidesolarrequiresadetailedanalysisofsolargenerationandloaddemandprofilestooptimizesystemperformance

andcost-efficiency.Keyfactorsincludeunderstandingthetimingandmagnitudeofsolaroutputandelectricityconsumption,

determiningtherequiredstoragedurationforbalancingsupplyanddemand,andaccountingforbatterycharacteristicssuchasdepthofdischargeandefficiency.Thesizingstrategyaimstomaximizeconsumptionandensurereliabilityduringperiodsoflowsolargeneration.Awell-establishedsystempreventspowershortfallsandexcessivecapitalinvestment,enhancingtheoverallvaluepropositionofsolar-plus-storageprojects.

EXHIBIT11:1GWofcontinuouspoweroutputenabledbytheproject

PowerGeneration(MW)

Solartostorage

StoragetogridSolartogridStoragetogrid

123456789101112131415161718192021222324

Houroftheday

SolaronlySolar+storagePowerload

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Akeydesignfeatureofthisprojectisits~19GWhofstorage,whichequatesto~19hoursofdurationata1GWoutputlevel.

Thisissufficienttocoveressentiallytheentirenon-solargenerationwindow,includingevening,overnight,andearlymorning

hourswhenPVoutputisnearzero.Inpracticalterms,thesystemonlyneedstorelyonreal-timesolargenerationforalimitedportionoftheday,withstorageprovidingthemajorityofoff-peaksupply.Thislong-durationcapabilityiswhatenablesthe

systemtodelivernear-continuousoutput,asitcanbridgethefulldiurnalgapbetweenproductionanddemand.Importantly,the19-hourdurationisnotexcessivebutdeliberatelyallowsforfullnight-timecoveragewhilealsoprovidingbufferforefficiencylossesandvariabilityinsolargeneration.Combinedwiththe~40%energyoverbuild,thisensuresthatsufficientenergycanbestoredeachdaytoreliablysustainbaseloaddelivery,evenunderless-than-idealconditions.Giventheirradianceprofileand

systembuild,continuouspoweroutputat1GWisachievedalmostentirelythroughtheyear.

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

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EXHIBIT12:Systemsustains~1GWofnear-continuousoutputthroughouttheyear

Electricitygeneration(MW)

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-01

Solar+StoragePowerLoad

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Belowwesummarizethekeyoperatingcharacteristicsfordifferentconfigurationofsolar+storagesystemsatdifferent

duration.For19-hourstorage,thesystemisabletosustain~1GWofnear-continuousoutputwith~99.7%uptimebasedonourmodelling.

EXHIBIT13:Keyoperatingmetricsforsolarvssolar-plus-storage

Solar

only

Solar+

4-hrESS

Solar+

12-hrESS

Solar+

19-hrESS

Combined

Dailypowerload

MW

24,000

24,000

24,000

24,000

Dailygeneration

MW

11,217

15,215

22,933

23,879

Uptime

%

50.3%

66.7%

97.5%

99.6%

Solar

Capacity

MW

5200

5200

5200

5200

Effectiveutilization

Battery

Batterysize

%

9%

12%

18%

19%

MWh

0

4,000

12,000

19,000

Duration

hours

0

4.0

12.0

19.0

DoDperday

%

0%

100%

98%

67%

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

Basedonourmodelling,thisconfigurationcanachieve~99.7%uptime,effectivelydeliveringbaseload-likereliability.Even

withareducedconfigurationof~12hoursofstorage,uptimecouldstillreach~97.5%,highlightingthecriticalroleofstoragedurationindeterminingsystemreliability.Whileshort-durationsystems(e.g.,2–4hours)canimproveutilizationandreducecurtailment,theyfullyeliminatesupplygaps,whereaslongerdurationstorage(12+hours)enablesfullday–nightenergy

shifting.Togetherwithdeliberatesolaroverbuild,excessmiddaygenerationisstoredratherthancurtailedanddischargedovernight,reshapingvariablesolaroutputintoaflat,baseload-likeprofile,representingastructuralshiftfromintermittentrenewablestofirmpower.

BrianHo,CFA+85221232615

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EXHIBIT14:Basedonourmodelling,thisconfiguration(19hours)canachieve~99.7%uptime,effectivelydeliveringbaseload-likereliability

Uptime(%)

PowersystemuptimesensitivitytoESSduration

02468101214161820

ESSDuration(hours)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

50.3%

40%

99.6%97.5%

66.7%

Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis

HOWMUCHWILLITCOST?

Solarandstoragecostshavedeclinedsignificantlyinrecentyears,makingbaseloadsolar-plus-storagesystemsincreasingly

viable.Thisreflectsacombinationofscale-drivenmanufacturingefficienc