【伯恩斯坦】中规模发电机制造浪潮到来：电力瓶颈将缓解

through2030.Wedevelopedacompany-by-companycapacitymodeenginesandindustrial/aeroderivativeturbinescoveringstandby&primepoweoversupplyafter2029-30,toafter2027-28,totaling~10capacityexpansionannouncementandreciprocatingengine(2-10doublefrom~85GWto~195GW.PuttingitintoconaddedintheUSandworldwide,respectivareaggressivelyexandnon-datacenter.Oandwefurthersplitthisdemandintoprimevs.sinternational.Asfornon-daverageandnominalGDP.Our2Mid-scalepowergenpric(>95%ofsalesfromthismarkettwww.bernsteinresearch.cAdjustedEPSMM0M00M000O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuSource:Bloomberg,BernsteinestimatesandUSMachinery:wemaintainobusinessneedstogroUSAerospace&Defense:HowmetisthekeypowerremainsstrongsuppliesaeroderivativeeU.S.CommunicationsInfrastructure:security,decarbonizationandglobaldevelopmentconcernsaredrivingdemandfoverwhelmingdemandforturbines,aswellasgridequipment.Wethinkelectrificationwilneededbetweenpowergenerationandendsoftwaretofacilitatethisintegrscaled,verticallyintegBloom'ssolidoxidefuelcellplatformarewaitingonisacapitalallocationframanufacturersoflargereciprocatingengpowergenerationfromdatacenworldwide,respectivecapacity.AssumingallannounwhilestandbypowerwillenteroversupplyiproductwillnotbewidelycommerciUSdatacenterdemandweuse4scenariosforincremecapacity).Wealsoassumethe%theircommunity,upfrom~4newentrants.IndustrystalwartssuchasCengineOEM),andBoomSuperso(3)Aflexiblemanufacturingfootprlargeengines&turbinesarestaapplications,etc.)andtechnologydivview.3factorstosorttherelativewinners/losers:1)technologies(theshortleadtimes,<1yeariindustrialturbinesandaeroderivativeturbines.2)effectively),sothepureplayindustrial&aeroder-thehighcostoffailuretendstochanneldacapacity),thoughtheydohaveanestablisSource:Aterio,EIA,Omida,Companydata,Bernsteinanalysis0Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanaly□2024Capacity「12024-3Source:Companydata,BernsteinanaBernstein:~5%USDCSource:BernsteinanalysisSource:Haveranalytics,BernsteinanSource:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysPROENERGYSource:Companyreports,Bernsteinan√SiemensEnergy√BakerHughes√√√Source:Companydata,BernsteinanalyMajorPlatforms3500&3600SeriesHSKSeriesOutputRanges(MW)Upto10MWUptoAvg.Start-upTime30-60seconSource:Companyreports,BernsteinanIndustrial&Aeroderivative0Source:Companydata,Bernsteinanaly90-70-50Source:Companydata,BernsteinanalyBERNSTEIN|soCIETEGENE28%Source:Companydata,BernsteinanalySource:Companydata,BernsteinanalySource:Companydata,Bernsteinanaly□IndustrialGas&AeroSource:Companydata,Bernsteinanaly2024Source:Companydata,BernsteinanalySource:Companydata,BernstIndustrial&AeroderivatiSource:Companydata,BernsteinanaAssumedUtilizationRa#ofMonthsNeededtoReachBrSource:Companydata,Bernst0Source:Companydata,Omida,20242025202620272028Source:Companydata,BernsteinanaSource:Companydata,Bernst0%20%0%20%Source:BloomEnergyspec-2024ulative*□Hyperscalers■Enterprise□Colocation□Developer*The%speculativeexcludesundisclosedownertypesSource:Aterio,BernsteinanalysisSource:HeatmapPro,EmboldResearch,Bernstein888Source:DataCenterB,BernsteinanSource:HaverAnalytics,Bernsteina-3%Source:HaverAnalytics,Bernsteina0202420242025202620272028Bernstein:~5%USDCCAGR----ScenaBernstein:~5%USDCBernstein:~5%USDCSource:Bernsteinanalysis FlexibleReciprocating(StandbDedicatdStandbyReciprocaDedicatedPrimeReciproca1112334377668113789333457864456689533344563222334431112334333333441222223310002333-3222222200001222-2Source:Companydata,McCoy,Omida,BehindTheMeter-Sta33832794362439994-BTM-PrimeRedundancyRa-BTM-StandbyRedundancyRaGridConnected-StandbyRedundancyR-.7787300000000BehindTheMeter-Sta00000000889848898--BTM-PrimeRedundancyRa.BTM-StandbyRedundancyRaGridConnected-StandbyRedundancyRGlobalDemandfromDat8Source:Companydata,McCoy,Omida,ChadDillard+19173448469chad.dillard@FlexibleCapacityUsedf4000TotalPrimeManufacturingCapFactoryUtilizationR--0000000-DemandfromNon-DataCenterApplicat--DemandFromDataCen00123344PrimePowerOver/(Under)Suppl000008-FlexibleCapacityUsedforStaFactoryUtilizationR-DemandfromNon-DataCenterApplicat-DemandFromDataCen5StandbyPowerOver/(Under)Su5-TotalOver/(Under)S5Source:Companydata,McCoy,Omida,Source:EIA,BloombergNEF,NRELATB,BernsCapitalRecoveryFactor(CRF)9.38%Annualgeneration(MWhperkWperyeaLevelizedfixedO&M($perMVariableO&M($perMWh)Source:EIA,BloombergNEF,NRELATB,BernsSource:Companyreports,EIA,BloombergNEF,NRELATB,BernsteinanalysisandestimatSource:Companyreports,BernsteinanalSource:Haveranalytics,BernsteinanalysisSource:HaverAnalytics,Companydata,BernstSource:HaverAnalytics,Companydata,Bernsteinan18x20x22x24x26xSource:Bloomberg,BernsteinSource:Bloomberg,Companydata,Source:Companydata,BernsteinanaSource:Bloomberg,Companydata,Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalys(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.BernstC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(SEBIreotherwise,forpurposesThisresearchpublicationcoverssixormorecompPleasevisit:/sellside/Disclosures.actioThisresearchpublicationcoverssPleasevisit:/sellside/Disclosures.actioOr,youcanalsowritetotheDirec(ex-Japan)exchanges-unlessotherwi·Market-Perform:StockwillperfoaresuspendedtemporariloneventsanddevelTheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategorietargetsaresuspendedtempooneventsanddevelThosedenotedas'Feature'(e.gAutonomousbrand-TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategorioperatinginsimilarsectorsoperatinginsimilarsectors·Underperform(UP):ThetotalreturnofissuersoperatinginAutonomouspreferredstockraWherethisreportcontainsinvestmentrecommendatisecuritiesoftheissuer(s)referencedheauthor(s)ofthisreportmaydifferfromthepublishedviewoftTheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriMarket-Perform(Bernstein*Thesefiguresrepresentthepercentageofcompaniesw/sellside/Disclosures.actionoryoucanwSGand/oritsaffilatesbeneficiallyown1%ormissuedsharecapitalofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingMiFIDeligibleBernsteinand/orafiliateshavereceivedprevioustwelvemonthsfromthefollowinBernsteinand/orafiliateshavereceiprevioustwelvemonthsmonthsfromCaterpillarInSiemensEnergyAG,DigitalRealtyThelegalentity(ies)employingtheanalyst(s)listedin+65SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PribesubjecttoFINRA'srestrictionmarketingactivitiesrelatingtoinvestmentbankinWherethisreporthasthatalloftheviewsexpressedinthispublicationacsecuritiesorissuersandthatnopartofthatanalyst'screcommendationsorview·Bernsteinproducesanumberofdiffequantitativeanalysisunderboththe“researchproductmaydifferfromrecommenddifferingtimehorizons,methodologiesorotherwise.FurthunderonebrandmaydifferfromBernsteinAutonomousLLP,SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Li.Forinform(Withdrawal)Act20andExchangeCommission("SEC")andamemberoftheU.S.FinthispublicationinthofanyspecificindividAutonomousLLP,authorisedandregulatedby+44(0)20-7170-5000.RegisteredinEngland&WalesNowithinArticle19(5)oftheFinancialSerPromotionOrder"),(i)arepersonsfallingetc.")oftheFinancialPromotionOrandregulatedbytheAutoritédeContróletheSFCPublicRegister(https://www.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/corp/AXC84investors,asdefinedintheSecu("SFA").RecipientsinSingaporeshouldcontactSanfordC.Bernstein(SsecuritiesandcollectianyresponsibilityforfacilitatinganyorsoldwithinthePRCbymeansofthisdC·ー>ス夕イ>株式会社),whichisregisteredinJapanasaFinancialInstrumentsBusinessOperatorwiththeKantoLocalhasneitheranycontractualrelationshipwiToourreadersinAustralia:SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司isresponsiblefordistributingresearchU.K.laws,whichdiffersfromAustralianlaws.SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)LimitedrequirementtoholdanAustralianfinancfollowingfinancialservicestowholesaleclients:(ResearchAnalyst)Regulations,2014,havingregiCentre,PlotNosC-54Maharashtra,India(PhoneNo:+91-22-684214arenotanofficer,director,emC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited·Disclaimer:Registrationgranrulebook).PersonsotherthanrecipientsofourcommunicationsorseAllresearchpublicationsarand.Certain,butnotall,researchthird