2025年企业和投资银行报告

FINANCIAL

INSTITUTIONSCORPORATEAND

INVESTMENT

BANKING

REPORT2025Positioningfor

GrowthinUncertainTimesOctober2025BCGBostonConsultingGroup

partnerswith

leadersin

business

andsocietytotackletheir

mostimportantchallengesand

capturetheirgreatestopportunities.

BCGwasthe

pioneer

in

businessstrategywhenitwasfoundedin

1963.Today,weworkcloselywithclientstoembraceatransformational

approachaimedatbenefitingallstakeholders—empowering

organizationstogrow,

buildsustainablecompetitiveadvantage,anddrive

positivesocietalimpact.Ourdiverse,globalteams

bringdeepindustryandfunctional

expertiseanda

rangeofperspectivesthatquestion

thestatusquoandsparkchange.

BCG

delivers

solutionsthrough

leading-edge

managementconsulting,technology

anddesign,andcorporateand

digitalventures.We

work

ina

uniquelycollaborative

modelacrossthefirm

andthroughoutall

levelsof

theclientorganization,fueled

by

thegoalofhelpingourclientsthrive

and

enablingthem

to

maketheworlda

better

place.Contents04

Introduction06State

of

the

Industry11CIBin

2030—AScenario-BasedOutlook17Imperativesfor

CIBs

and

Capital

Markets21Conclusion22AbouttheAuthorsIntroductionCorporateandinvestment

banking(CIB)

reboundedstronglyin

2024,withtotal

revenues

rising4%to$827

billion—$989

billion,including

non-bankfinancial

institutions.Gainswerefueled

bysponsoractivity,fee-based

businesses,equitiestrading,and

momentum

inemerging

markets.

Early

resultsfor

2025suggestthe

growthtrendwillcontinue.Yet

behindthe

reboundliesa

sectorin

flux.Our“CIBin

2030”chapter

looksaheadto

howvalue

pools,

business

models,andfinancialflowscoulddevelopthrough

2030,

presentingthree

plausible

pathwaysgroundedinproprietary

modelingand

recent

marketsignals.

Finally,our

“Imperatives”chapteroutlines

how

managementandboardscan

respondwitha

portfolio-basedstrategytoreinforcetoday’s

margins,secure

new

revenuestreams,and

buildacalibrated

presenceinemergingdomains.Thisisa

momentof

opportunity.Whiletheoperatingenvironmentis

morecomplexthanatany

pointin

the

past

decade,theindustry’sfundamentals

remainstrong.

Firms

that

movedecisivelyto

modernizecapabilities,expandinto

high-valuesegments,and

make

bold,targetedinvestments

can

unlocksustainedgrowthwellintothefuture.Privatecapitaland

non-bankfinancialinstitutions(NBFIs)

are

nowcentraltooriginationandintermediation.AIisbeginningtotransformfront-to-backworkflowsfromdealsourcingtotradeexecution.

Digitalassetsandtoken-based

infrastructureare

movingfrom

pilotstoinstitutionaladoption.Andgeopoliticalfragmentation,onceviewedasa

riskscenario,

has

become

partof

theoperating

baseline.Theseshifts

markastructural

realignment,

reshapingwho

holdscapital,

howvalueiscreated,andwhere

risk

resides.BCG’sannualCorporateand

Investment

Banking

Reportoffersour

latest

perspectivesonthisevolution.Our“Stateof

the

Industry”chaptertraces

howvalueisshiftingandexaminestheforcesdrivingthat

migration.Wethen

provide

astrategictoolkitfor

leaderstoactontoday’sopportunities.4BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP>30%CIB

RevenuesSetto

Expand~30%+

by2030,

Reaching$1.3TrillionInourmostlikelyscenarios,theglobalcorporateandinvestmentbankingwallet,including

NBFIs,willexpandsignificantly—withrevenuesshiftingtofinancialsponsors(orcorporates

ownedbythem),whilefeesfromcorporatesandinstitutionsdecline.$3TStablecoinsto

Reach$3Trillion

MarketCap

by2030Stablecoinsareexpectedtoscale

to

morethan$3trillion

marketcap

by2030,

movingfromfringeexperimentationtocoredigitalmarketinfrastructure,alongsideabroaderwaveof

digitalassets.–4pp>20%Non-BankFinancialInstitutionsGainShareofCIBRevenuesPools

(from2010:3%;2024:16%)By2030,

NBFIsare

projectedtoaccountfor

upto22%of

total

CIB

revenue

pools(upfrom3%in

2010

and16%in

2024)

and30%

oftrading

revenues.+4ppEMEAandAPACtoGainShareof

GlobalCIBRevenue

MixfromUSEscalatingtariffsandcontrolsinearly2025signaladeeperstructural

break.

Protectionismandregulatory

divergenceareredrawingtrade,capital,andtechnologypatterns—andreshapingrevenue

poolsfor

CIBsin

Europe,Asia,andthe

US.8pp25%–40%AIto

Free

upto25%一40%CIBBankerCapacityas

PilotsScale

to

ProgramsBy2030,

productivitycould

rise

25%

to40%forcorporateandinvestment

bankersand20%

to

35%

foroperations

teams.These

gains

areacceleratingtheshiftfromisolatedpilotstoCEO-backedtransformationprogramsanchoredina

handfulofhigh-valueenterpriseinitiatives.+3ppFICCandEquitiesPositioned

to

BenefitFixedincome,currencies,andcommoditiesplusequitiestradingare

thebiggestwinnersintech-forwardenvironments,especiallyinscenarios

with

NBFIexpansion.25%Corporate

Banking’sShareofProduct

Mix

FacesGreatest

DisruptionCorporate

bankingisthe

mostexposedsegmentinoursurgeintechandalternativesscenario,giventheincreasedpressurefromdigitalplatforms

and

NBFIs.RoTEGap

Between

Leaders

and

LaggardsWidensto8pp

(from6ppin2024)Leadersareexpectedtowidentheirreturn-on-tangible-equityadvantage

over

laggardsto8

percentage

pointsby2030,primarilyvia

scale

andAI-ledefficiency.Focus25%of

StrategicEffortsonTargeted

Betsin

High-ConvictionArenasFirmsthatdoubledownonadvantaged

areas,scale

selectively,and

placetargeted

betsonemerginggrowthareaswilloutperforminthedecadeahead.POSITIONING

FOR

GROWTH

IN

UNCERTAIN

TIMES

5Key

HighlightsSince

2023,CIB

revenues,excluding

NBFIs,

havegrown4%

to

reach$827

billionin

2024.

In

2024,

momentum

has

been

strongestininvestment

banking,withexceptionalgrowthin

equitycapital

markets(up54%YoY)anddebt

capitalmarkets(up39%YoY),andinequities

(up

18%YoY).

Bycontrast,fixedincome,currencies,andcommodities(FICC)

wereflat,andcorporate

banking

revenuesdeclined.(SeeExhibit1.)Growthof

CIBcontinuedinto2025,with

H1revenues

up5%YoY,driven

by

strong

equities

(up

21%YoY)

andgrowing

FICC(up9%YoY);investment

bankingfeesand

corporate

bankingwereflat.Yetthese

headlinegainsconceala

morecomplex

reality.Beneaththesurface,

marketstructure,competitivedynamics,andcapitalflowsareshifting.Theindustryiscontendingwith

newsourcesof

capital,

rapidlyscalingtechnologies,andan

unsettledgeopolitical

backdrop—allof

whichare

reshaping

howvalueiscreated.Thesectionsthat

followtrace

howtheseforcesare

playingoutin

practice.Globalcorporateandinvestment

banking

markedanotheryearof

growthin

2024and

continued

strong

momentumin

2025.Stateof

the

Industry6BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPPrivate

Marketsand

NBFIsExtend

Their

ReachSponsors,suchas

privateequityfirms,and

alternativecapital

providersare

becomingcentraltocapitalformation,

especiallyin

mid-capandgrowthsectors.

In

2010,revenuesofnon-bankfinancialinstitutions(NBFIs)represented

lessthan5%of

theglobalCIB

revenue

pool.Nowtheyaccountfor

morethan

15%.

Leancoststructures,

specialistexpertise,andfreedomfrom

regulatorycapitalrequirementsgivethema

naturaledge.Their

reach

now

spanstheCIBvaluechain—from

lendingandadvisory

tomarketsactivity.(See

Exhibit2.)Privatecreditfunds

have

beena

key

playerinthis

shift,

steppinginto

lendingopportunitieswhere

banksfacecapitalor

regulatoryconstraints.Todaytheyaccountfor

11%of

global

lending

poolsandare

expanding

beyond

direct

lendingintoasset-basedfinance,

netassetvalue

facilities,andwarehouse

platforms.Non-bank

liquidity

providers

nowaccountforabout

20%of

globaltrading

revenues,

particularlyin

highlyelectronified,

lower-marginassetclasses.Theirspeed,advancedtechnology,andagile

risk

management

helpeddeliverastandout

2024.Continuedvolatility,includingfromshifting

tradeandtariff

dynamics,shouldsustain

momentum,with

theirshareexpectedto

reach30%

by

2030.

Boutiqueinvestment

banksarealsogainingground

and

couldcapture

20%of

investment

banking

revenue

bytheendof

thedecade.EXHIBIT1CIB

Revenues

ReboundAfter

a

DecadeofSlow

GrowthSources:

BCGanalysis;

BCG

Expand.Note:Total

revenuestackexcludes

NBFI

revenue;CIB

largecap

corporate

revenue

pools

(>$1

billion

inturnover)

in

open

markets,

excludes

commercial

lending;CIB=corporateinvestmentand

banking;

FICC

=

fixed

income,

currency,

and

commodities;

IBD

=

investment

banking

division.2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025F IBD/advisoryEquitiesFICCSecuritiesservicesCorporate

banking+4%2020–2024796759720+4%2025F8608279484698666

664608

62260773481664527516067422629559+1%2010–2019POSITIONING

FOR

GROWTH

IN

UNCERTAIN

TIMES

7CIB

REVENUE

GROWTH($BN)CAGR2010–20244.1%1.8%–0.2%2.9%3.1%615642637Non-bank

liquidity

providers

now

accountfor

about

20%of

global

trading

revenues,

particularlyin

highlyelectronified,

lower-margin

assetclasses.Sources:

BCGanalysis;

BCG

Expand.Note:CIB

largecapcorporate

revenue

pools

(>$1

billionturnover)in

open

markets.1Revenuesincludingsecuritiesservices.22010

“next

10CIBs”view

is

top

6–14,

as

Jefferies

CIB

breakdown

not

available,

included

in

2019

and

2024.AIAdoption

Expands

BeyondIsolated

UseCasesAIincorporateandinvestment

banking

hasevolvedfromits

originsin

predictiveanalyticsfocusedon

risk

modelingand

recommendationsystemstoacoreengineof

transformation.

These

newcapabilitiesarechanging

howworkgetsdone,howfirmscompete,andwherevalueiscreated.Between

nowand

2030,the

largest

productivitygainswill

comeincorporate

relationship

management,investment

banking,andoperations.

Productivityamong

juniorbankerscould

rise

by

25%to40%insome

banks,while

operationsteams

maysee

20%to40%improvements.Attentionisalsoshiftingtosenior

banker

productivity.With

successfulAI

usecases—fromclient

meeting

preparation

to

prospecting—senior

bankersare

beginningto

usethese

toolsto

unlockefficienciesandcreate

newvalueintheirday-to-daywork.Topfirmsare

pushingfurther,

launchingCEO-

and

CIO-

backed

programsfocusedonstrategictransformation.Insteadof

diffuse

usecases,

leadersareconcentratingon

fourtosixenterpriseinitiatives,selectingthosewithmeasurable

P&Limpactandgivingthemdefinedcharters

andowners.Program

managementoffices,structured“sharktank”funding

rounds,andcharter-drivenexecution

modelsare

emergingas

new

normsfortop

banks.Several

are

alsosettingexplicitAItransformationtargetsas

partof

their“Investor

Day”commitmentsto

buildaccountabilityandsustain

momentum.

In

manygroups,AIannouncementsnowtakecenterstage,

reflecting

boththegreater

maturity

of

solutionsinCIBandtheiroutsizedimpact

acrossthewider

bank.Non-Bank

Financial

Institutions

Command

a

Growing

Shareof

CIB

RevenuesCIB

REVENUE

SHARE:

NBFI

VS.CIB

BANK

DIVISIONS($BN)1

TOTAL

CAGR1621971295019513994431128132347NBFIsTop5CIBsNext10

CIBs2RestofmarketNBFIshare+5%p.a.+2%p.a.2010

2019

2024629(607excl.

NBFI)989(827excl.

NBFI)759(664excl.

NBFI)POSITIONING

FOR

GROWTH

IN

UNCERTAIN

TIMES

9+2.2%+3.1%+2.7%~13%~16%~3%+15.5%一0.2%EXHIBIT22010–2024

22

Digital

Assets

and

Tokens

SeeGrowing

Institutional

InterestAfteryearsofhypeand

hesitation,digitalassets

are

gainingtraction,driven

by

regulatoryclarity,technical

progress,andintegrationintoinstitutionalworkflows.Stablecoinsareatthecenter

of

this

shift.

Projectedto

reach$3trillionin

marketcapitalization

by

2030,they

representthe

most

matureformof

digital

moneytoday.Seeour

recent

BCGx

Ripple

reportfor

moredetails.Financialinstitutionsandfinancialtechnologyfirmsareactively

pilotingcoin-basedsolutionsforwholesale

payments,

liquidity

pooling,cross-bordersettlements,andclientwallets.

Additionalapplicationsareemergingacrosscapitalmarkets

andtransaction

banking,fromtokenized

bondstoprogrammablestablecoins.

Firms

likeCircleand

JPMorgan

arealsotestingstablecoinsforforeignexchangesettlement,

securities

payments,and

business-to-businesstreasury.Tokenizationand

real-worldassetsaregaining

momentum,

especiallyin

repotransactions,collateral,andstructuredproducts,wheretheycanenable

new

levelsofprecision,automation,andtraceability.

Leadinginstitutionsareexploringdigitalissuanceandsettlement

modelsforfixed

income,fundshares,andalternatives,whileexchangesand

custodiansare

buildingoutsupportinginfrastructure.Althoughvolumesare

low,the

promiseof

costsavings,enhanced

liquidity,and

better

post-tradeefficiencyisigniting

heightenedinterestinfull-stacktokenizedworkflows.Thisshiftisextendingtotheinfrastructure

layer.

Forexample,someexchangesareembeddingtokenization

intocore

listing,clearing,andsettlementsystems.Those

moves

positioninfrastructure

playerstoinfluence

emergingstandards,interoperability,andgovernance.Earlyexamplesincludetokenized

bond

pilotson

regulated

exchangesandcollateraltokenization

platformsaimedat

unlockingcapitalefficiency.GeopoliticalShiftsAltertheGlobal

Financial

MapThe

USgovernment’s

2025tariffagenda

hasaccelerateda

realignmentalreadyin

motion.Tradeflowsareshifting,reservestrategiesarediversifying,andde-dollarization

is

gainingground.AcrossAsia,Africa,and

LatinAmerica,

renminbi

useis

rising,enabled

by

bilateralswap

lines,

non-dollarsettlement

rails,anddigitalcurrency

pilots.The

BRICSbloc—Brazil,

Russia,

India,China,andSouthAfrica—is

deepeningfinancialcooperation,with

newcross-border

paymentframeworksdesignedto

reduce

relianceon

US-

centricsystems.Capital

marketsare

being

redrawnaswell.Withissuance

and

liquidityflows

becoming

more

regional,the

relativecompetitivenessof

financialcentersisinflux.

Europe

has

steadily

lostgroundoverthe

pastdecade;tocompete,

the

EU

must

reviveitsCapital

Markets

Unionagendaandpursueadeeper,

moreintegratedframework.Asia,

by

contrast,isgaining

momentum,driven

bydomesticinvestorgrowth,cross-border

listings,andgovernment-

backeddigitalinfrastructure.For

banksandcapital

market

providers,theseshiftsareforcinga

rethinkofnetworkdesign,operating

models,

and

regulatory

posture.

Institutions

must

reassessinternational

footprints,

reconfigure

bookingand

liquidity

hubs,andlocalize

risk,compliance,andcapital

management.Thestateof

theindustry

revealsthat

long-standingassumptionsabouttechnology,

regulation,andglobalization

no

longer

hold.To

navigatewhatcomes

next,

leaders

musttrack

howtheseforcesconvergeandgameouttheirimplications.10BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPThe

near-termoutlookforcapital

marketsisstable.

But

lookfiveyearsout,

and

thegroundgets

lesscertain—and

moreconsequential.

Because

linearforecastsdon’twork,leaders

needto

plana

range

ofpossiblefutures.Thischapter

laysoutthreescenarios,

builtfrom

rigorousmodeling,

proprietary

benchmarks,andglobalindustrydata,informed

byclientconversations.(See

Exhibit3.)They’redesignedto

helpfirmsteststrategies,surface

risks,

andclarifytheconditions

neededtostayahead.Eachof

thesescenarioswillshape

revenuegrowthforcorporateandinvestment

banks,including

NBFIs,through

2030.

Profitabilityand

returnontangibleequity(RoTE)will

alsodivergesharply,wideningthegap

betweenindustryleadersand

laggards.(See

Exhibit4.)CIBin

2030—AScenario-BasedOutlookPOSITIONING

FOR

GROWTH

IN

UNCERTAIN

TIMES

11Sources:

BCG

publicationsandanalysis.Note:APAC=Asia-Pacific;AUM=assets

under

management;

DLT=distributed

ledger

technology;

EMEA

=

Europe,

Middle

East,

andAfrica;

NBFI

=

non-bank

financialinstitutions.EXHIBIT4CIBs’

Revenue

OutlookVaries

by

ScenarioAdoptionofdigitalassetsand

DLTStablecoins

replace<5%ofglobalcommercial

money;minimuminstitutionaluptake①Stablecoins

replace10%–15%

of

globalcommercial

money;

tokenizedassets

reach>5%of

AUMFollowsbase

caseassumptions(butwithhigherinstitutional

update

of

stablecoinsex-US)GlobalfragmentationNofurtherdecouplingofregionalcapital

marketsFollows

basecaseassumptionsUSinfluencewanesandEMEAandAPACgainground2024BasecaseSurge

intech&

altsShifttoregional

CMLaggardsIndustryaverageLeadersRoTE

(%)2,32024BasecaseSurge

intech&

altsShifttoregional

CMLaggardsIndustryaverageLeadersSources:

BCGanalysis;

BCG

Expanddata.Note:

Negligibledifferencesinsharesdueto

rounding

andvariationin

projections;

leaders

represented

as

80th

percentile

of

top

15

CIBs

by

revenue

andlaggardsas

20th

percentileof

top

15CIBs

by

revenue;CIR

=

costto

income

ration;

NBFI

=

non-bank

financial

institutions;

RoTE

=

return

on

tangible

equity.

1Includesadvisoryand

markets,and

lending.2CIR

&

RoTE

asweighted

average

based

on

revenue

and

capital,

respectively.

3Range

built

by

using

minimum

and

maximumvaluesforCIR&acrosssegment

averages

IBD,

CB,

markets.EXHIBIT3CIB

Growth

Could

FollowThree

Distinct

PathsThrough

2030CIB

revenue

outlook2030across

scenarios

incl.

NBFI1Growth’24-’30$1,290B1,045(81%)Basecase1,020

(78%)860(83%)Shiftto

regional

marketsIncreased

regional

fragmentationandshifttoward

EMEAandAPAC$989B827(84%)2024Surgeintech

and

altsTech

and

private

marketsacceleratesharplyBasecase

scenarioSecularindustrytrends

continueatcurrent

paceCIB

profitability

metricsCIR

(%)2,3NBFIs

reach

upto20%

ofCIBfee

pools;

no

regulatory

hindranceGenAIis

reshaping

E2Eworkflows;90%of

trading

viae-platformsGenAIadvancementand

tech

disruptionEfficiencyfocusedonmid/back-office;70%e-tradingNBFIscreatea

revenue

pool

upto>20%of

CIBfee

pools245(19%)NBFICIBRiseofnon-banks(NBFIs)Shift

to

regionalcapital

marketsFollowsbase

case

assumptionsFollowsbase

case

assumptions$1,040B180(17%)162(16%)Surge

intech&

alts12BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP+30%+32%+5%290(22%)56715855685653675070605510151610161017189131517132①$1,310BScenario1(Base

Case):

PrepareforSteadyValue

MigrationIf

theforcesoutlinedinour“Stateof

the

Industry”chapter

persistattheircurrent

pace,CIB

revenueswillgrow

at4%annuallythrough2030,

reaching$1.3trillion.(See

Exhibit5.)

Bankswill

retain

roughly80%of

the

pool,with

non-bankproviders

nearingone-fifth.The

product

mixshiftsslightly

fromtoday’s

levels.

Investment

banking

risesfrom

11%to

12%,corporate

lendingslipsfrom51%to50%,

andprofitabilityimproves

modestly—with

RoTEaveraging

16%

andcost-to-income

ratiostrendingtoward56%.AIinvestment

holdsat

lessthan

1%ofrevenuefor

mostinstitutions.

Digitalassetsdrawinterest,

butstablecoins

stay

under5%of

commercial

moneyandtokenizedassets

under

2%ofassets

under

management(AUM).

Evenwithoutanaccelerationinanydisruptive

trend,value

migrationcontinues:•Non-banksgainground.

NBFIsgrowfrom16%to

nearly

20%ofrevenues,and

private

markets

reach$24trillionin

AUM.While

notexplosive,theshareshiftconfirmssteady

encroachmentfromsponsor-backed

platforms,advisoryboutiques,and

non-bank

market

makers.•Privatemarketstestthecore.

Sponsorsdrive

12%

ofsegment

revenues(upfrom

10%).Theirgrowing

rolein

capitalformationanddealflow

puts

pressureon

banks,

especiallyin

leveragedfinance,structuredcredit,andevent-driventransactions.•Fee-basedrevenues

matter

more.

Investmentbanking

rises

modestlyasashareofrevenue,whilecorporate

lendingand

netinterestincomedeclines,pushing

banksto

re-weighttoward

higher-valuesegments

andclientsto

protect

marginand

relevance.•Modernizationbecomes

mandatory.

E-tradingsurpasses70%,

reflectingongoing

marketdigitization.

Evenwithouta

burning

platform,this

uptickaddspressurefor

banksto

upgradetrading,data,and

workflowinfrastructure.Sources:

BCGanalysis;

BCG

Expanddata.Note:Total

revenuestackincludessecuritiesservices;CIB

largecap

corporate

revenue

pools

(>$1

billionturnover)

in

open

markets;

all

figures

rounded;

leadersrepresented

as80th

percentile

of

top15CIBs

by

revenue

and

laggards

as

20th

percentile

of

top

15

CIBs

by

revenue;APAC

=Asia-Pacific;

CB

=

corporate

banking;

CIR=costtoincome

ratio;

EMEA=

Europe,

Middle

East,andAfrica;

FICC=fixedincome,

currencies,

and

commodities;

IBD

=

investment

banking

division;NBFI=

non-bankingfinancial

institutions;

RoTE=

return

on

tangible

equity.1Includesadvisoryand

markets,and

lending.2CIR&

RoTE

asweighted

average

based

on

revenue,

and

capital,

respectively.

3Range

built

by

using

minimum

and

maximumvaluesforCIR&

RoTEacrosssegmentaverages

(IBD,

CB,

markets).4Defined

asfinancial

sponsor

clients

and

corporates

owned

by

financial

sponsors.REVENUE

MIXINCLUDING

NBFI1$1,290BNBFI(+3pp)CIB(–3pp)2030FREVENUE

MIXEXCLUDING

NBFI(%)ProductmixSecuritiesservicesIBDEquitiesFICCCBEXHIBIT5Base

Case

Projections

Suggest

30+%

Revenue

Growth

by

2030CIB

profitability

metricsCIR

(%)2,3245(19%)1,045(81%)CorporateInstitutionSponsor44429274230285434125534108121020502030FNorthAmericaEMEAAPAC162(16%)827(84%)8111019512024ProjectedCIB

revenuesand

mix

by2030IndustryLeadersaverageIndustryLeadersaveragePOSITIONING

FOR

GROWTH

IN

UNCERTAIN

TIMES

132024Basecase2024BasecaseSegmentmixRegion

mixRoTE

(%)2.3716855531017101656165815LaggardsLaggards$989B2030F2030F202420242024Scenario2:

BraceforaSurgeinTechandAlternativesWhilethe

basecaseisthe

minimumexpectation,directionalindicatorssuggest

NBFIs,AI-drivenadvances,anddigitalassetswillexperiencestrongertailwinds

overthe

nextfiveyears.Thisconvergencewill

redistributevalue

pools.TotalCIB

revenuesstayata

similar

level

as

in

thebasecase(~$1.3

trillion).Privatecapitalwillfurtherdisplacetraditional

lending,boostinggrowthinadvisory,creditstructuring,andsponsor

coverage.

NBFIswillgainsharein

marketsandinvestment

banking.AIdeploymentswillscale,enablingsignificantlygreaterfront-to-backefficiency,anddigitalassetswillcreate

newcapabilitiesin

payments,custody,andcapital

markets.Theoverall

resultisa

higher-growth

but

morecompetitive

CIB

landscape,wheretraditional

banks

must

move

beyond

theircoreandspecialize,

partner,and

modernizetodefend

returns.Thesearethe

maintakeaways:•Profitability

bifurcates.Cost-to-income

ratiosstay

flat,

butsplitsharply.

Leadersthatembracefull-stack

AIand

redesign

platforms

reducecost

by

upto

17percentage

pointscomparedto

laggards.

RoTE

rises

modestlyfrom

16%to

17%.

Butthespread

between

laggardsand

leaderswidens

by8

percentage

points,

with

bottom

performersweigheddown

bycomplex