汇丰-中国贸易：双向流动保持韧性-China trade：Resilient two-way flows-20260908

HSBCGlobalInvestmentResearch

8September2026

Chinatrade

Economics

Resilienttwo-wayflows

China

◆Exportgrowthheldupandwasbroadlyconsistentwithmarketexpectations

(25.0%;Bbg:25.9%);Aldemandandtransportationitemswerekeydrivers

◆Importsalsolargelybenefitedfromhigh-techdemand(28.2%,Bbg:31.0%),

owingtodomesticpolicypushandregionalAlsupplychaincollaborations

◆Withexportsstillprovidingstrongtailwinds,thekeypolicyfocusshouldstayonshoringupdomesticdemand;fiscalpolicyissettotakethelead

TaylorWang

Economist,China

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

TAYLOR.T.L.WANG@HSBC.CO+85222888650

Facts

Table1.Chinatradebreakdown

Jun-26

Jul-26

Aug-26

Exports,USD,%y-o-y

27.0

23.9

25.0

Imports,USD,%y-0-y

36.0

27.5

28.2

Exportsbymarkets

US,value%y--y

13.9

17.0

34.4

EU,value%y-0-y

18.5

16.0

6.6

ASEAN,value%y-0-y

34.5

38.4

30.2

Importsbymarkets

US,value%y-0-y

25.9

15.3

17.8

EU,value%y-0-y

9.2

-1.4

0.7

ASEAN,value%y-0-y

26.5

36.0

35.0

Exportsbyproducts

Mechanical&ElecticalProduds,value%y-0-y

34.2

33.8

32.8

High-TechProducts,value%y-o-y

52.2

52.7

56.9

Auto,value%y-0-y

69.6

60.4

43.0

Clothing&Toys,value%y-0-y

1.3

6.6

12.8

|Importsbyproducts

Mechanical&ElecticalProducs,value%y-o-y

47.5

46.0

51.7

High-TechProducts,value%y-0-y

57.8

58.8

68.7

IronOre,volume%y-y

6.4

3.3

3.1

CrudeOil,volume%y-0-y

-41.3

-24.3

-23.4

Copperore,volume%y-0-y

-0.6

-7.1

-9.1

Coal,volume%y--y

29.5

20.0

-1.5

IronOre,value%y-0-y

18.3

13.7

6.2

CrudeOil,value%y-0-y

-7.4

-4.6

-8.8

Copperore,value%y-0-y

33.3

26.6

24.7

Coal,value%y-0-y

60.7

83.8

48.6

Importsbymethodoftrade

Ordinary,value%y-0-y

25.3

21.3

16.1

Processing,value%y-0-y

51.2

46.8

45.5

Souroe:CEIC,HSBC

Disclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

2

.

Economics●China

8September2026

Implications

China’strademomentumremainedrobustinAugust,withbothexportsandimportssustainingdouble-digitgrowth,despitecontinueduncertaintylinkedtotheconflictintheMiddleEast.ThebreakdownshowsthatglobalAIdemandwasstillacleardriver,withAsia’ssupplychainsincreasinglyintertwined–continuingtoliftbothtradeflows.China-USbilateraltradealsoshowsfurthersignsof

stabilisation,thoughChina-EUtraderelationmaywarrantacloserwatchinthecomingmonths.Whileresilienttradesectorhelps

provideacushionforgrowth,softdomesticdemandremainsapressingissue.Policyfocuswilllikelybedirectedtowardsareaswithstrongergrowthpotentialandgreaterspillovereffectsacrossthebroadersegments.

Onexports,high-techgoodsremainedakeybrightspot,largelysupportedbytheglobalAIpush.Integratedcircuitsandcomputer

accessoriestogetherprovidedan11.3pptboosttoheadlinegrowth,astheirvaluegrowthacceleratedfurtherto130%and77%y-o-yinAugust.OurbasecaseseesglobalAI-relatedcapextoremainstrongandcontinuesupportingregionalsemiconductortradefor

quitesometime,thoughwealsonotedthattheirvaluegrowthwillalsodependonhowpricesforkeycomponents—suchasmemorychips—evolve.

Inaddition,strongautoexportsalsoreflectthatoverseasdemandrisesamidMiddleEastconflict,helpingoffsetweakdomesticautosalesduetothepaybackeffectfromdurable-goodstrade-insubsidiesandEV-relatedtaxnormalisation(seeChinaactivity,17

August).Evenso,thismayalsoindicatethatChina’sstrongpricecompetitivenessandresilientsupplychainsareenablingdomesticmanufacturerstogainalargershareofglobalexports—anadvantagethatmayhaveappliedtoshipexportsaswell.Together,autoandshipsprovideda2.1pptboosttoheadlineexportsgrowthinthemonth.

Meanwhile,wethinksomefront-loadingactivityhaslikelycontinuedinAugust,asmanufacturersexpectanotherroundofSection

301investigationwillsoonleadtoadditionalUStariffs.ItwasreportedthattheUSisseekingtoimposeanother7.5%tariffonChina,citingallegedovercapacity(Bloomberg,24August).Ifimplemented,thiswouldexactlymatchMOFCOM’scommentthattheUShadcommittedtocappingtotalreplacementtariffsonChinesegoodsat20%,includingthe12.5%Section301tariffalreadyinforce

(MOFCOM,31July).Lookingahead,PresidentXi’sscheduledSeptembervisittotheUSwillbeakeywatchpoint,withbothsides

recentlysignallingprogressintalksonreciprocaltariffcutscoveringaroundUSD30bnofgoods.Labour-intensiveconsumergoods

arelikelytobenefit.Infact,someconsumergoodshavealreadyshownmodestimprovementsinexportsoverrecentmonths,astheytendtobemoresensitivetotariffchangesthancapitalgoods.InAugust,exportsoftoys,clothing,furnitureandhouseholdappliancesallrecordedstrongery-o-ygrowth,alsopartlysupportedbyfavourablebaseeffects.

30

20

10

0

-10

Chart1.ExportscontinuedtoreflectanAI-drivenstory…

C

ontributionppt.

Jan-Feb7/202412/20246/202511/20255/20262024Others

Autosandships

Integratedcircuitsandcomputers Exportsy-o-y

Source:CEIC,HSBC

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Chart2.…whilehigh-techdemandremainedthemaindriverofimports

contributionppt.

5/202410/2024

Others

Coal

High-TechIronOre

Source:CEIC,HSBC

4/20259/20253/20268/2026

Copper

AgricultureProduct CrudePetroleumOilImportyoy

ImportsgrewfasterthanexportsinAugust,liftingtheytdyoygrowthrateto27%(vs19.3%exportgrowth).Notably,theregional

interconnectednessofsemiconductorsupplychaincontinuedtocontributetoelevatedimportsofintegratedcircuitsandoverallhigh-techgoods,whichwereupstronglyby84%and69%y-o-y.ThisisalsoconsistentwithstrongimportsfromKorea,Japanand

Taiwan,aswellasoutperformingprocessingimports.ImportsfromtheUSalsostayedhealthyandrosec18%y-o-y,likely

Economics●China

8September2026

3

attributabletoagreementsreachedafterthepresidentialsummitinMay.Onthecommoditiesside,higherpricesremainedakeydriverforseveralmajorinputssuchascopperandcoal,withimportvaluegrowthoutpacingvolumegrowth.Notably,China’soilimportsfellinbothvolumeandvalueterms–aneffortseenashelpingcushionglobaloilprices(CNBC,8June2026)butpartlyreflectingweakdomesticdemandandChina’songoingpushtodiversifyitsenergymix.

Ontheflipside,westilltakenoteofthefactthatEUremainedakeylaggard.AsChina’simportswerehighlyconcentratedin

semiconductorsandcommodities,thisisyieldingrelativelylimitedbenefitstothebloc.AsnotedbyHSBC’sChiefAsiaEconomist,

FredNeumann,etal.,EuropehastraditionallybeenmoreexposedtoChina’sautodemandandpropertyinvestment,whichhasbeenchallengedbyChina’srisingcompetitivenessintheautoindustryandtheongoingpropertydownturn(seeAsiaChartoftheWeek:

China’sbalancechallenge,3July).Asaresult,China’stradesurpluswiththeregioninJan–AugrosesharplybyUSD45.5bn

comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear,eventhoughtheoveralltradesurplusincreasedbyonlyUSD23.9bn.Lookingahead,theongoingChina-EUtradeconsultationsaresupposedtodelivertangibleresultsinOctober,andwethinkreformsandrebalancingarekeyfactorsfromChina’sperspective(seeEU-ChinaTradeRelations,6August).

Economics●China

8September2026

4

Disclosureappendix

Analystcertification

Thefollowinganalyst(s),whois(are)primarilyresponsibleforthisdocument,certifies(y)thattheopinion(s),viewsorforecastsexpressedhereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalview(s)andthatnopartoftheircompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontainedinthisresearchreport:TaylorWang

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedandisbeingdistributedbytheResearchDepartmentofHSBCandisintendedsolelyfortheclientsofHSBCandisnotforpublicationtootherpersons,whetherthroughthepressorbyothermeans.

Thisdocumentdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellanysecuritiesortoparticipateinanytradingstrategy.Theinformationcontainedwithinthisdocumentisbelievedtobereliablebutwedonotguaranteeitscompletenessoraccuracy.Anyopinionsexpressedhereinaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.HSBCmayholdapositionin,buyorsellonaprincipalbasisoractasamarketmakerinanyfinancialinstrumentdiscussedherein.

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Additionaldisclosures

1Thisreportisdatedasat08September2026.

2Allmarketdataincludedinthisreportaredatedasatclose08September2026,unlessadifferentdateand/oraspecifictimeofdayisindicatedinthereport.

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Researchbusiness.HSBC'sanalystsanditsotherstaffwhoareinvolvedinthepreparationanddisseminationof

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5

Disclaimer

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