外媒外刊-数据中心表后电力难在何处？第一部分-What is So Hard About Behind-The-Meter Power For Datacenters Part 1-20260910

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WhatisSoHardAboutBehind-The-MeterPowerForDatacenters?Part1

/p/what-is-so-hard-about-behind-the

EllieHolbrook,RobertBoswall,JeremieEliahouOntiveros,NicolasBontigui,DylanPatelSeptember10,2026

LastyearwewerethefirsttocalloutOnsiteGasGenerationastheprimarymethod

adoptedbyAlLabsandHyperscalerstosolvepowerconstraints.Ourpositiveviewwasfarfrombeingconsensus:behind-the-meterprimarypowersolutionshavebeencalledall

sortsofnamessuchas"scienceexneriments”"DarkGiaawatts”and"literallvthedumbestthingthathumanbeingshaveeverattemptedtodo”!

Butsincethen,thatsupplychainhaswitnessedamassiveacceleration.OurEnergyModelnowtracks75GWoffirm,bindingordersinthesupplychainonlyforforbehind-the-

meterAlcompute-ofwhich~20GWaloneorderedinQ22026.WhatstartedasanElonMuskexperimentisnowmainstreamforeverysingleAlLabandhyperscaler.Tobeclear,thisdatadoesnotincludethehundredsofGWsofspeculative,baselessannouncementsthatmanyotheranalyststrackintheirnumbers-weonlyfocusonbindingordersreceivedbyOEMsspecificallyservingBTMAlcompute,trackedattheproject-level.

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DatacentersHaveBookedAbout75GWofOnsiteGenerationOrdersTripledSincetheEndof2025

Generationbookedforbehind-the-meterdatacenterpower,US,GWnameplate,cumulativebyannouncementquarter,batteriesexcludedSources:SemiAnalysisEnergyModel,BTMTracker,edition24Aug2026

semicnalysis75GW

Q42025Q22026Q32026

quartertodatea+24Aug2026

Sources:SemiAnalysisEnergyModel;sales@

Thepathfromfirmequipmentordertodeliveredprojectisstilllongandchallenging.Thereissubstantialexecutionriskandthat'swhatwe'llfocusoninthisreport.Buttheindustryismoreexperiencedthanyou'dthink:bytheendoftheyear,~3GWofoperationalUS

datacenterITcapacitywillbepoweredbehind-the-meter,andthatnumberwillexperiencemultiplestraightyearsoftriple-digitgrowth.OurEnergyandDatacentermodelsaccountforallpotentialdelays,aswe'veexplainedindepthinourpieceStopSayingHalfof2026USDatacenterCapacityisCanceled.

SomeofthemoststrategicprojectsdevelopedbyleadingAllabsandhyperscalersarerelyingonbehind-the-meter,supportinghundredsofbillionsoffuturerevenue.Adoptionhasneverbeenmorebroad-based.Afewexamples:

·In2026year-to-date,Microsofthassignedover5GWofbehind-the-meternameplatecapacity,ofwhich2.7GWwithJoulent&Chevron,andwellover2GWthroughturnkeydatacenterleaseswithcompanieslikeCrusoe.That5GWencompassesabroad

rangeofdifferenttypesofpowerequipment;fullbreakdownavailabletoourEnergy.Modelsubscribers.

·Google,historicallythemostreluctanttoonsitegas,isdeploying930MWofoff-gridaeroderivativeturbinesinaflagshipcampusinArmstrongCounty.Inaddition,theSearchGiantwilldeploy900MWofBloomEnergyFuelCellsinWyoming-aswecalledoutbackinFebruary2026asahugepositiveforBloomEnergy.They'llbepairedwith>1GWofMitsubishiJ-classturbines.

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·BothAnthropicandMetahavesigned300-500MWdealswithEnchantedRock,asupplierof0.5MWgensetsbuiltarounda21.9-literV12gasengine.Separately,

Anthropic'sflagshipcampusinTexas,backstoppedbyGoogle,willalsodeployover

1.5GWofoff-gridgeneration;fullbreakdownofAnthropic'sexactdatacenterfacilitiesavailabletoourDatacenterModelsubscribers.

·OpenAlwillimminentlystartoperationsinitsflagshipoff-grid1.4GW(ITcapacity)

campusinShackelfordCounty,TX,usingoverfivehundred4.25MWJenbacher

J624engines.Weshowbelowaportionofthecampus.Combinedwiththeir1.3GWITsiteinNewMexico,thatrepresentsover$150BofcontractedspendingthatOpenAlsignedwithOraclerelyingonbehind-the-meterpower

Windturtines.,pro-xising(101

Datahalls

Workerparkingandsiteoffices

VantageFrontier/VoltaGridABI-1

ShackelordCounty,TX.30cmsatellteimage,22July2026.17:38UTC

■Electrical

■Gassupply

■Powerblocks,slabspoured(4)

■Powerblockpads,gradedonly(2)

■Powerblocks,enginesgoingin(2)

■Datahalls,steelanddeck(2)

■Next-rowfoundations(5+1)

Sources:SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel;SemiAnalysisEnerqvModel;Sales@

Whyisthishappening,andwhyhavemanyenergyexpertsbeensowrong?ItcomesdowntounderstandingAleconomics.We'vediscussedthisatlengthinmanyotherarticlesandinourTokenomicsModel.Asaquickreminder,thevalueofmegawattsforend-usersis

skyrocketing.Apowerplantsupportinganislanded1GWITdatacentertypicallycosts

~$5B.Intoday'senvironment,inferenceAPIrevenuecanyield$100BperGWperyear,at90%+grossmargins.Paying2xmoremoneyoraccepting30%lowerefficiencyfor

fasterspeedofdeploymentbecomesano-brainer.Saiddifferently,Anthropicandits

peerscanpaybackthevalueofapowerplantin20daysofinferencerevenue.Aswediscussedsixmonthsago,mostofthevalueintheAlinfrastructurestackisshiftingto

frontiermodeldevelopers.

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Thegridsimplycannotkeepupwithdemand.Buildingnewgenerationcaneasilytakeoverfiveyears,andonthedemand-side,interconnectingadatacentertakesyears.ReadmoreinourarticleonUSGridConstraints.

OnaGB300Cluster,RevenuePerGigawattClimbs8×UptheAIStackSpaceXPricesBetweenNeocloudRentalandModel-LayerTokens

Sources:SemiAnalysisTokenomicsModel,SemiAnalysisInferenceSimulator

semianalysis

S6OB$48B

$29B$31B

2.6×

$12B

B300on-demand

typlcalOracle.CoreWeave&NeblusprieingSemiAnalyslsobservedprlcing

SpaceX+AnthropicSpaceX+GoogleOpenAl/AnthropicinferenceAPI

Sources:SemiAnalysisTokenomicsModeSemiAnalysisInferenceSimulator;sales@

Thatmarketcontextisoverwhelminglypositiveforbehind-the-meterpowertoovercomesuchconstraints.Butthesedatacenteronsitepowersolutionsareincreasinglydivergentfromtheirgrid-connectedpeers.Aspredictedayearago,winnershavenotonlybeentheincumbentslikeGEVandSiemensEnergy.Thebiggestbeneficiarieshavebeenthe

dozensofsuppliersofreciprocatingengines,ofvariousshapesandforms,withsolutionsfrom0.5MWperunitto20MWperunitbeingadoptedatscale.Ayearago,wecounted12distinctmanufacturersthathadsecuredmulti-hundred-MWdatacenteroff-gridorders;buttodaythatcountis22andwillcontinuetogrow.OurEnergyModeltracksquarter-by-

quartermanufacturingcapacity,orders,deliveries,andavailabilityforover30OEMs.

Whilethebrightsideofthisisinnovation,theflipsideistheloomingexecutionchallengesfacingtheindustry.Manyofthesethingshaveneverbeendoneatthisscaleorspeed.

Cracksarestartingtoemerge.Permittingdelayshavecausedhigh-profilesites,likeOracleProjectJupiterandNebiusNewJersey,toperformemergencypivotstolesspolluting

alternatives(Bloomfuelcells).PipelinedelayshavealsoimpactedOracle's1.3GWIT

ProjectJupiter(asourEnergyModelcalledoutinMay2026,wellbeforetheheadlines).Marketchatterofreliabilityissuesisincreasinglyfrequent.Laborshortagesaresurging.Designandup-timeconsiderationsarechallengingandslowingdownsomeFIDs.A

secondarymarketforturbinesisstartingtoemergeasaresultoffirmorderstiedtofailedprojects.

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【价值目录】网整理：

Intoday’sreport,wediveintotheworldof“datacentermicrogrids”.WeconsiderthechallengesanddoubtsregardingtheBTMbuildoutandlookathowitisbeingdone.

1.Whatevenis‘Behind-the-Meter’.Detailingthewaysadatacentercanrelatetothegrid,betweenprimaryandback-uppower;includingwhensomethingisaphonymicrogrid.Howdoesonedefinebehind-the-meter?

2.Howprojectssucceedorfail.Welayoutthesixkeystages&challengesofBTMprojects:contracts&bankability,permitting,fuelsupply,equipmentprocurement,workforce,andthephysicsofoperatingwithoutagrid-connection.Westartwiththefinancingwall,withchicken-and-eggsituationsbeingincreasinglycommonfor

developers,andtheriseofthenew“BTMutilities”.

3.Wherewegofromhere.‘Togridornottogrid’;whathappenstotheseplantswhen

gridpowerfinallyarrives;export-to-grid,stayprimarypower,becomebackup,ormoveelsewhere.Atthesametimewhathappenswiththeseorderbooksandthe

manufacturingcapacitythathasscaledsohardtomeetthemoment.We’llalsogiveourviewontheimplicationsforBTMinTexas.

Overrecentmonthswehavepublishedsignificantresearchforour

EnergyModel

clients,layingoutwinners&losersintheequipmentlandscape(turbine,recips,fuelcells),

contractorslikeAGX,BoPequipmentlikeMVUPSsystemsandhownewLVRT

regulationscouldhavenegativeimpacttocertainhugeindustrialcompanies.Behindthepaywallofthisreport,wehaveincludedsomeofthisworkforSubstacksubscribersnowtoenjoy.

Conferences:inSeptembermembersofSemiAnalysis’EnergyModelteamwillbeatGastechinBangkok14-17th;DataCenterWorldPowerinDallas21-23rd;YottainLasVegas,andGulfCoastPowerAssociationinAustin,both28-30th.Email

energy@andletstalkpower!

WethankMicheleTarawnehfromCelsiusIndustriesforhisvaluableinputtothisreport!

Whatevenis“BTM”?

Ameterisadevicethatcountselectricity;itisstationedatthepointwheretheproject’swiresmeetthegrid’swires.Everythingonthegridsideofthatpoint,thesubstations,thepylons,thepowerplants,is“frontofthemeter”;everythingontheproject’sside,the

switch-gear,thebatteries,andonsitegenerators,is“behindthemeter”.

Therearethenspecifictermsbutinpracticetheygetusedinterchangeably:“behind-the-meter”,“off-grid”,“islanded”,“co-located”,and“micro-grid”.Thisisfrustratingandleadstocommondisagreementsoverthedefinitions,butonewaytothinkaboutthemisby

connectionconfiguration:

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FourDatacenterPowerConfigurations

Source:5emAnalyslsschematle

Grid-parallel

ply;surplustothegrid

Thesuplysystemremainsgrid-ied.

NOGRIDIMPORTSTOSERVELOAD

Grid-parallel:onearrangement,differentsizing

lustratveelectricalcapacibestora1,000MWdatacenter

250MWgeneratlon/1,000MWImportlimit

Nettingdoesnotgrantimporrightsorguaranteegndbackup.

1,200MWgeneratin/250MWimpotlimit

Dashed:surplusplantexport

stzlngeuanchesentlosandauxlanos,sgenoradonisassumedavalaboutput.AnImpottrtsnataguarartoofimservice.

Export-onlyisgrid-connected,notelectricallyislanded.

Neexport=plantoutput-localdemand

Thesupplysystemisisolated.

Source:SemiAnalysis

1.Grid-supplied:Thegridsuppliesthedatacenter;on-sitegenerationisbackuponly.Powerplantssupplythepublicnetwork,whichsuppliesthedatacenter.

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2.Grid-parallel:Localgenerationandgridimportscanbothsupplythedatacenter.Exportsareoptionaldependingontherightsandconnections.

1.Therelativesizesofthedatacenter,itslocalgeneration,anditspermittedgrid

importscanvarysubstantially.ERCOT’sWithdrawal-LimitedPrivateUseNetwork,orWLPUN,frameworkexpresslyaccommodateson-sitegenerationreducingthetransmissioncapacityalargeloadrequires.

2.Considerthreeillustrativeconfigurations,eachservinga1,000MWdatacenter:

1.Grid-led:250MWoflocalgenerationanda1,000MWimportlimit.Localgenerationoffsetspartofgridconsumption;whenproducing250MWatfulldatacenterload,itleaves750MWtoimport.

2.Plant-led,full-sizedimportconnection:1,200MWoflocalgenerationand

a1,000MWimportlimit.Theplantcancovernormaldemand,whiletheimportlimitislargeenoughtoaccommodatetheentiredatacenterload.

3.Plant-led,limitedimportconnection:1,200MWoflocalgenerationanda

250MWimportlimit.Atfullload,atleast750MWmustcomefromlocal

resources.Losingalllocalgenerationwouldrequirereplacementsupplyoratleast750MWofloadreduction.

3.Export-only:Localgenerationsuppliesthedatacenter;thegridconnectionpermitsexportsbutnotimportstoservetheload.

4.Off-grid:Localgenerationsuppliesthedatacenterwithoutanoperatinggridconnection.

Netmetering

Inthiscontext,netmeteringmeansnettingthedatacenter’sconsumptionagainst

associatedgenerationattherelevantgrid-facingmeteringorsettlementboundary.ERCOTdescribesitasreducingthecustomer’smeteredconsumptionfromthegrid;itisnot

necessarilytheretailrooftop-solararrangementthatcreditsexportsagainstconsumptionoverabillingcycle.

Freestoneisanexample:ERCOTreportsPUCTapprovalinMay2026ofanarrangementbetweena1,099MWgasplantanda760MWdatacenterinFreestoneCounty.

WhyExport-onlyisnotOff-grid

Thedatacenterdoesnotneedaseparategridfeedertoremainelectricallyconnected.Ifitssupplycircuitconnectsintotheplant’sgrid-connectedACsystem,itisconnectedtothe

gridthroughtheplant;thesiteparticipatesintheinterconnection’sfrequencydynamicsandsharedinertialresponseevenwhileexportingnetpower.Dependingonhowwellrunthe

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【价值目录】网整理：

gridisthisarrangementcanbebeneficialtothedatacenterwithimprovedelectricalreliabilityandquality.

Existinggenerationaddsaregulatorydistinction

Regulatorscanalsodistinguishnewgenerationfromaplantthatpreviouslysuppliedthegrid.TexasUtilitiesCode§39.169,“Co-locationofLargeLoadCustomerWithExistingGenerationResource,”coverscertainnet-meteringarrangementsinvolvinganoperatingfacilityregisteredasastand-alonegenerationresourceasofSeptember1,2025;it

requiresERCOTnotificationandPUCTreview,subjecttoexemptionsandadeemed-approvalprovision.

Divertingexistingoutputtoanewloadcanreducesupplyavailabletothewidergrid.

ERCOTsaysthetwonettingarrangementsapprovedbyMay2026requiredthe

datacenterstoreduceconsumptionorswitchtobackup,andtheplantstoreturntheirfulloutputtothegridwithin30minutesofanERCOTinstruction.

Operatingstatesanddeployment:island,bridgepower,gridasbackup

“Islanded”isanoperatingstate:agrid-connecteddatacenteropensthebreakerandrunsonitsowngeneration.Thenrelatedbutseparate,theDepartmentofEnergydefinesa

“Microgrid”as“agroupofinterconnectedloadsanddistributedenergyresourceswithin

clearlydefinedelectricalboundariesthatactsasasinglecontrollableentitywithrespecttothegrid,”anditsGridDeploymentOfficeaddsthatamicrogrid“canoperateineithergrid-connectedorinislandmode,includingentirelyoff-gridapplications”.Inthispiece,

“islandablemicrogrid”meansagrid-connectedsitethatcanseparate;“off-gridmicrogrid”meansasitewithnoconnectionatall.ManyBTMprojectsusethetermloosely,perhapsbecauseitavoidssaying“gas”.

Inpractice,thismaychangealotovertime.ManyBTMprojectsplanforagridconnectionanduseBTMasa“bridge”-oncetheutilitydeliverstheconnection,thegeneratorscanshiftintoabackuprole.Wedescribedthisindepththe

OnsiteGasDeepDive

asthemostpopularapproachbecauseelectricitysystemsbenefitfromsubstantialeconomiesofscaleinbothcostandreliability.xAI’sColossus1inMemphishastakenthisroute.

Otherprojectsplanforagridconnectionthatwillserveas“backup”,i.e.asanewenergyresourcethatwillhelpincreasetheexpecteduptime.We’veseenprojectsplanningfor2or3“nines”ofexpecteduptimewhileinfullislandmode,andaddinganadditional“nine”oncegrid-connected.We’llprovidemorethoughtsbehindpaywallonhowmanyBTMplantswillbecomegrid-connectedincomingyears.

WhyisBuildingBTMSoHard?

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Aturbineorderandanearbypipelinedonotmakeaproject.Betweenthepressreleaseandfirstpowerstandsixkeyhurdles:contract&bankability,permits,fuel,equipment,

is

workforce,andelectricalphysics.Ourpermit-leveltrackingshowsbookedcapacityfacingdifficultiesatnearlyeveryoneofthem.

semicnalys

PARTWHATHOLDSAPROJECTBACKEVIDENCETHATMATTERSWHOBENEFITS

Stage2NofirmdeliverablesupplyorFirmvolumeanddeliverypressure;transport,Midstreamandupstream

Gasexecutablepipelineroute.fuel-qualityandresilienceplan.

Stage4

Builders,specialisttradesoroperating

Constructionandcommissioningplan;staffing,

EPCs,modularsuppliersand

Construction,

coverageunavailable.

maintenanceandservicecoverage.

serviceproviders

commissioning

andworkforce

Stage5

Loadswings,instabilityorprotection

Validatedislandingdesign:loadresponse,stabilityand

ABB,ON.energyandthestability

lslandingphysies

thatcannotclearfaults.

faultprotection.

stack

Theseareinterdependenthurdles.Financing,design,procurementandpermitingoverlap.

Source:SemiAnalysisEnergyModel;sales@

Gate0:ContractandBankability

Below,we'ldiscussallthephysicalchallengesinbringingonlineGW-scaleislanded

datacenters.Butbeforegettingthere,there'sperhapsanevenbiggerchallenge:the

financialone.Traditionally,onecanconnecttothegridverycheaply,withboth

interconnectionrequestsandletterofcreditsbeingverymodest.Thiswasenoughto

developcrediblesites,evenatGW-scale,andledtoafranticsearchforpowerintheUSandworldwide.Itwaseasytoturnaquickprofitwithlimitedcapital,i.e.afewmillionatmost.WediscussedthisatlengthinourOnsiteGasDeepDive,andourUSGrid

Constraintsarticles

Islandeddatacentersarefundamentallydifferentbecausethereisnoexistinginfrastructuretoconnectto.Withpowerplantstypicallyat~5BperGWofITcapacity,andequipment

depositsincreasinglyexpensive,theupfrontcapitalexpenditureblocksmanyprojects.

ThisleadstotheclassicBTMchicken-and-eggproblem:lenderswantalong-termESA

withasolidofftaker,andclearSLAsandothercontractualterms.Offtakerswantacredibletimelineandprojectsystemdesign.Developersneedearlycapitaltopayforequipment

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depositstoprovidethatcredibletimelineanddesign.Andwiththeinsatiabledemandforgasgenerationequipment,nothavingthatcapitalmeansthattimelineskeepslipping.

THEBTMCHICKEN-AND-EGGPROBLEMCapital,contractsandequipmentslotsmustallarrivefirst

Source:SemiAnalysisEnergyModelsales@

LENDERSOFFTAKERS

Anexecutablesystemdesign

BTM

PROJECT

DEVELOPERS

Needearlycapital

Equipmentdeposits

Permittinganddesignspend

NODEPOSIT→NOEQUIPMENTSLOT→POWERDATESLIPS

Source:SemiAnalysis

Earlysuccesseshavecomeinthreeforms:

1.Fullverticalintegration,theMuskplaybook:asdiscussedatlengthinourColossus2article,xAlbuiltitsownpowerplantforselfuse,seeingitasthefastestwaytobuildcompute.Thiswasmostlikelyequity-funded.

2.Full-scopedatacenterdevelopers:certaindevelopershavebothconstructionand

energyintheircorecapabilities,andtakeresponsibilityfortheBTMpowerplantwhensellingtohyperscalers.InaYieldonCostmodel,theytypicallyincludetheonsite

powerinthecostenvelope-whichthencommonlycrossesthe$20M/MWmark.Fullsite-leveldetailsinourDatacenterIndustryModel

3.Datacenter+powerpartnership:datacenterdevelopersgo-to-markettogetherwith

powerdeveloperstosellasitetoahyperscaler.Butthehyperscalersignstwo

separatecontracts:oneforthedatacenter,oneforpower.CertainOracleStargate

sitesarebuiltonsucharrangements.Thejointgo-to-marketmeansthattheofftakerisofferedafull-stacksolution.Butthemaindrawbackisdealingwithmoreparties,andfacingariskofpayingstrandedexpensesifeitherthepowerorthedatacenterarelate

-giventhecontractsareindependentofeachother.

ForBTMpower,allofthatcomplexityhasledtothedevelopmentofanewtypeofserviceproviders:Energy-as-a-Service(EaaS)vendors.Thesearethenew“BTMutilities”.

CompaniessuchasVoltaGriddeliverpower,notjustequipment,underlong-termcontractswithguaranteedcapacityandup-timecommitments.EaaScandoeverythingfromleasing

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gensetstotruckingcompressednaturalgastositeas'virtualpipelines'whilepermanentpowerplantsandactualpipelinesarepermitted,built,andcommissioned.

VoltaGridhasprovedtobeoneofthewinnersofthattrend,landingmultiplegigawattsoforderswithtoptierdeveloperslikeVantageDatacenters.OtherslikeWiliams,Solarisarealsoontheriseandhavescoredmassivecontracts.Separately,somemanufacturersareincreasinglydoingthatthemselves,suchasBloomEnergyandEnchantedRock.Wetrackallofthesupplychain,EPCs,BESS/SynConandsuchforhundredsofprojectsinour

EnergyModel.

Source:VoltaGrid

DoesthiscapitalwallmeanthatBTMisstructurallydisadvantagedversusthegrid?Itusedto,butit'snotanymore.USGridconstraintsareplayingoutinreal-time,intwoways:

1.WithfirmUSgridheadroombeingexhausted,servinganewGW-scaledatacenter

requiresGW-scalegenerationpairedwithit.Capitalrequirementsarecommonlyinthemulti-billion-dollar-per-GWrangetoday.CheapGW-scaleinterconnectionsdonotexistanymore.

2.Mostutilitiesarenotoriouslyslowandunreliable,andgridESAstypicallyaren'tas

bindinganddon'thaveasmanypenaltiesasaBTMcontractsincaseoflatedeliveryoruptimeissues.Itmakessense,they'reverydifferentcontractsinnature.Assuch,forGW-scaleprojectswherespeedandcredibilityofexecutionmatters,BTMisanincreasinglycompetitiveplay.

Therefore,weviewthefinancingenvironmentincreasinglyfavorabletowardsBTM.In

addition,datacenterdevelopersaregettingmoresophisticatedonenergyandbuildingtheir

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【价值目录】网整理：

ownworld-classteams,andincreasinglyofferingafullturnkeyscopetoofftakers,includingtheBTMplant.

Stage1:Permits

TheStateDecides

Withthatsaid,let’snowtacklethephysicalchallenges,startingwithpermits.Wewarnedinthe

OnsiteGasDeepDive

thatgettinganairpermitforonsitegenerationcantakeayearormoreeveninthefasteststates,andthatpermitswerealreadydelayingsomeprojects.Inthissection,weoutlinethevaryingpermittingintensitybystate,andhowsome

developershavecomeupwithcreativesolutionstocircumventpermittingblockers.

Thefirstdecisionisthereforewheretofile.Findingfavorableregionsisparamount,andifyouarenotsurethenyoucanhedgeyourbetsbylocatingonaborder.Colossus2sitsonTulaneRoadinMemphis,Tennessee,afewhundredmetersnorthoftheMississippi

border.Itspowerplantsitsontheotherside,onaformerDukeEnergysiteinSouthaventhatanxAIaffiliateboughtinJuly2025.ThatmovedtheairpermitoutofShelbyCounty,whichhadpermittedtheColossus1turbines,andintoMississippi.Mississippiletthe

turbinesrunforupto12monthsas“temporary”unitswithnoairpermit,andinMarch2026itsPermitBoardunanimouslyapproveda41-turbine,1.2GWplanttomakethem

permanent.

Thewiderlessonisthatdevelopersnowchoosejurisdictionsalmostascarefullyastheychooseequipment.Thesameplantcanfaceastandardizedregistrationinonestate,acase-by-caseairpermitinanother,andseparateair,sitingandgenerationapprovalsinathird.

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TexasHoldsAbout17GWofBookedOnsiteGeneration

Another29GWofOrdersHasNoSiteChosenYet,SoNoPermitCanExistforItOnsitegenerationbookedforUSdatacentersbystateofthenamedsite,GWnameplate,batteriesexcluded

Sources:SemiAnalysisEnergyModel,BTMTracker,edition24Aug2026

sales@

Nositechosenyet

17GW

semicnalysis

Sources:SemiAnalysisEnergyModel;Sales@

Thatasymmetrybetweenstates,asmuchascheapgas,explainswhyTexasissettohostmoreoftheBTMfleetthananyotherstate.Thestatedetermineshowtheprocessplaysoutbutfederalrulessetmostoftheparameters.TheEnvironmentalProtectionAgency

(EPA)setsthecoreair-qualitystandards,emissionsdefinitionsandmajor-source

framework;stateandlocalauthoritiesusuallyadministerthoserules,issuethepermitsandaddtheirownauthorizationroutes.

HowtheAirPermitThresholdsWork

Potentialtoemit(PTE)isthetonnageaplantwouldemitrunningflatoutallyear,countedperpollutant.EveryUSairpermittestsPTE.Foragasgeneratorthetwopollutantsthat

matterarenitrogenoxides(NOx)andcarbonmonoxide(CO).Twofederallinesapply.A

plantwithPTEabove250tonsayearofanypollutantgoesthroughafullmajor-source

review:modeling,apublicprocess,andpotentiallyyearsaddedtothetimeline.AplantwithPTEabove100tonsalsoneedsaTitleVoperatingpermit,asecondlayeroffederal

oversight.Statessettheirownlinesbelowthefederalones.

Tiers:

1.Exemptasanonroadengine:Aportableenginethatstaysonsiteunder12months

1.Sitsoutsidestationary-sourcepermitting.Worksforreciprocatingenginesonly:

anyturbineof10millionBtuanhourormorefallsunderafederalemission

standard,confirmedbyEPA'sJanuary2026turbinerule.Mississippiexempted

XAI'strailer-mountedSouthaventurbinesunderastaterule;thatdecisionisbeingchallengedinfederalcourt;40CFR1068.30.

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【价值目录】网整理：

2.MinorNewSourceReview(NSR):PTEbeloweverymajorthreshold

1.Aconstructionpermitfromthestateorcounty,whichsetstheexemptioncutoffsandhowmuchmodelingisneeded.Publiccommentofatleast30days.Aplantthatacceptsanenforceablecaponhoursorfueltostayunderthelinesisa

“syntheticminor”;changingthatcaplatertriggersafullmajor-sourcereviewasiftheplantwerenew;

40CFR51.160to51.161

;

40CFR52.21(r)(4)

.

3.PreventionofSignificantDeterioration(PSD),themajor-sourcereview:PTEof250

tonsayearofanypollutant.100tonsfor28listedindustries;EPAreads“steam

electricplant”tocovercom