巴克莱-中国AI：从AI投资到落地应用-AI in China：From AI investment to adoption-20261009

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AIinChina

FromAIinvestmenttoadoption

China'sAIpushisshiftingfromambitiontoexecution.

Investmentsupport,andlimitedinfrastructureand

SustainableInvestingResearch

DaveDai,CFA(i)

+85229032655

dave.dai@

BarclaysBank,HongKong

ThematicInvesting

HannahGreenberg

+12125262457

hannah.greenberg@

BCI,US

WilliamThompson

+12125268641

william.s.thompson@

BCI,US

CreditResearch

RoannaChau(i)

+85229032625

roanna.chau@

BarclaysBank,HongKong

ChinaEconomicsResearch

YingkeZhou(ii)

+85229032653

yingke.zhou@

BarclaysBank,HongKong

regulatoryconstraints,aswellasearlysignalsofadoption,aredrivingvariedeconomiceffectsongrowth,FXandcredit.

WhatChinaaimstoachieve:China'sAIstrategyreflectsanationaldrivefortechnological

leadership,withpolicymakerstargetingAIadoptionacrossmorethan100industriesanda90%penetrationrateby2030.Thestrategyissupportedbyopen-modeleconomicsandarapid

buildoutofpublicandprivateAIinfrastructure.Whilemacroevidenceremainsfragmented,weseesignsofAIadoption,ledbymanufacturingandICT,especiallyamonglargercorporates.

Sustainability:nomajorconstraints:Sustainability-relatedfactorsaresettosupport,not

constrain,China'sAIexpansion.Adequatepower,fuelsupply,permittingandsparecapacity

shouldenablefurtherAIinfrastructureexpansion,whilewaterstressremainsalocalizedissue.Onadoption,policyprioritiesareshiftingtowardworkforcereskillingandAIcontent

governance.Bycontrast,ourthematicanalysisoftheUSsuggestsashiftfromAI

experimentationtowardexecutionandROI,alongsideaconvergenceofsupply-sideconstraints(eg,power,labor,permitting,andlocalopposition).

Credit:commercialisationandfunding:Atthesectorlevel,ChinaTMTsarenotonlyinvestingbutbeginningtoshowclearercommercialbenefits,mostdirectlyreportedbyAlibaba,Baidu,Tencent,KuaishouandLenovo.Meanwhile,morefundingisneededforinfrastructure-led

platforms,accordinglytoourliquiditywalks,andcouldbecomemorecomplexascomputedemandexpandsandasChineseTMTcompaniesextendbeyonddomesticprocurementintooverseasdatacentresandGPUcapacity.

YingZhang(ii)

+85229032652

ying.zhang3@

BarclaysBank,HongKong

FX&EMMacroStrategy

MitulKotecha(i)

+6563085439

mitul.kotecha@

BarclaysBank,Singapore

ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.

BarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

(i)ThisauthorisadebtresearchanalystintheFixedIncome,CurrenciesandCommoditiesResearchdepartmentandisneitheranequityresearchanalystnorsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletoanalystswhoproducedebtresearchreportsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.

(ii)ThisauthorisamemberoftheFixedIncome,CurrenciesandCommoditiesResearchdepartmentandisnotanequityordebtresearchanalyst.

FORANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)PLEASESEEPAGE30.

FORIMPORTANTEQUITYRESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE30.

FORIMPORTANTFIXEDINCOMERESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE31.

Completed:08-Oct-26,11:28GMTReleased:08-Oct-26,23:30GMTRestricted-External

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Macroeconomics:AI’smacroimpactcomesinseveralchannelsatdifferenthorizons.Whilethenear-termcontributionislikelytobeledbyexportsandAIinfrastructurecapex,wethinkthe

longer-termcontributiontogrowthwillcomethroughhighertotalfactorproductivity,asfirmsuseAItoimproveefficiencyacrossmanufacturingandservices.OurotherobservationsarethatthemostinflationaryphaseofChina'sAI-relatedinfrastructurebuildoutislikelybehindusandAIhasyettocreateenoughjobs,withdemandinsufficienttocounterthepropertydownturn

andautomation.

FX&rates:Giventhelimitednear-termgrowthimpactofAI-drivenproductivity,weseeFXandratesbeingdrivenmorebytheAIexportcyclethanbyproductivitygainsfromAI

adoption.China’sAIboomismoresupportiveoftheCNYthanitisbearishforCGBs.Forrates,AIshouldkeepthePBoCaccommodativeandCGByieldsrelativelylow.Thestrongergrowth

impulseismorerelevantforCNYNDIRS,whereitreduceseasingexpectationsandleavesthe5ysectormoreexposedthanthepolicy-anchoredfrontend.

UnderstandingChina'sAIroadmap

DaveDai,CFA(i)BarclaysBank,HongKong|YingkeZhou(ii)BarclaysBank,HongKong|RoannaChau(i)BarclaysBank,HongKong

China’sstate-ledAIpushaimsforbroadeconomy-wideadoption,butprogressreporting

remainsuneven.Tohelpinvestorsgaugethepaceofdeployment,wemapreportedadoptiontrendsagainstkeyindustryindicators.

China'sAIroadmap:Cleartargetsandwideindustrycoverage

China'sofficialpromotionofartificialintelligencedatesbacktoitsfirstpolicyin2016linkingAIwithInternet+

1

.InMarch2024,AI+developmentwasincludedingovernmentannualbudget

reportforthefirsttime.AndinAugust2025,ChinafurtheredtheAIadoptiondetailswithreleaseofthe"AI+ActionPlans",aneconomy-wideAIadoptionprogram,withexplicitpenetration

targetssetfor"newintelligentterminalsandagents–70%by2027thento90%by2030.Six

prioritiesarealsotargeted,includingscience&technology,industry,consumption,

livelihood,governanceandglobalcooperation.Theplanwasformallyincorporatedintothenationaldevelopmentplansofthe15thFive-YearPlan(2026-2030),inMarch2026.

Followingthenationalplans,numerousgovernmentagencies(eg,MIIT,MOFCOM,NEA)havepublishedopinionsoneachoftheprioritiesorsub-areas.Forexample,forindustryand

consumptionalone,wehavefoundnineindustrygroupsand>100targetedsectorsor

businessactivities(seeAppendix).Notably,notallthesectorscomewithnumericaltargetsandmanyarementionedinpolicydocumentsascasestudiesandpotentialscenarios.

AImodels:improvingopennessandcostadvantages

WhileChinadoesnotexplicitlydiscourageclosed-sourcemodels,theterm"openmodel"

appearsninetimesintheAI+ActionPlan,particularlyundertheAI+GlobalCooperationpillar.Bycontrast,referencestoclosed.sourcemodelsarelargelyabsentfrombothnationalandindustry-levelpolicydocuments.

Coupledwiththegovernment'spromotionofopenmodels,wealsoobservegrowing

"openness"inthelatestmodellaunchesacrossanumberofdevelopers.Since2024,manydevelopershaveshiftedtoApache2.0orMITlicenses,whichallowweightdownload,fine-tuning,commercialusage,modificationandself-service.

1“Internet+andArtificialIntelligenceThree-YearActionandImplementationPlan“,NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,MinistryofScienceandTechnology,MinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,Cyberspace

AdministrationofChina,May2016

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AclearinflectionpointcamewithDeepSeekR1,whichcombinedfrontier-levelperformancewithfullyopenweightsunderanMITlicense.Shortlythereafter,MoonshotAImadeadramaticshiftinstrategy,releasingKimiK2underamodifiedMITlicense2inJuly2025andmovingawayfromitspreviousAPI-centricapproach.Baidu,afteryearsofadvocatingclosed-source

development,alsopivotedbyopen-sourcingtheentireERNIE4.5modelfamilyunderApache2.0inearly2025.

FIGURE1.More"open"licensingforChinesemodels

Developer

2023

2024

2025

2026

Deepseek

Openweights

Openweights

MIT

MIT

Kimi

Closed

Closed

ModifiedMIT

ModifiedMIT

Alibaba

Custom

Mixed

Apache

Apache

ZhipuAI

Open

Open

MIT

MIT

Baidu

Closed

Closed

Apache

Apache

TencentClosedCommunityCommunityApache

Source:Companydata,BarclaysResearch

Chinesemodelscontinuedtomakerapidgainsinperformancealongsidegreateropenness.

ArtificialAnalysisdata(Figure2)showsthatmodelsreleasedin3Q2026postedanaverage

intelligencescoreof40,ledbyXiaomi’sMiMo-V2.6-Pro(46)andZ.AI’sGLM-5.3(45).Thismarksasharpimprovementfromtheaveragescoreof29formodelsreleasedin3Q2025and15forthoselaunchedayearearlier.

FIGURE2.IntelligenceofChinesemodelscontinuedtoimprove

3Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q26

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source:ArtificialAnalysis,BarclaysResearch

WhileleadingUSfrontiermodelsstillscorehigheronintelligencebenchmarks,withClaude

Fable5.1reaching53,manyChinesemodels(showninamber)offercomparableperformanceatsignificantlylowercost(Figure3).ThiscostadvantagecouldaccelerateAIadoptionacross

China.

2Kimi'smodifiedMIT:Ifacompanyorproductexceedscertainscalethresholds(reportedasmorethan100million

monthlyactiveusersormorethanUS$20millioninmonthlyrevenue),itmustprominentlydisplayattributiontoKimiinitsproduct.Insimpleterms,largecompaniescannotusethemodelinvisibly;theymustacknowledgethatKimitechnologyisbeingused.

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FIGURE3.IntelligenceIndexvs.Costpertask

Nemotron3Ultra

Gemini3.5Flash-Lite

MuseGlimmer(high)

MistralMedium3.5gpt-oss-120b(high)

0123

ClaudeFable5.1(maxwith

fallback)

ClaudeFable5.1(max)Qwen3.8Max(0902)

GPT-6Astra(max)

Grok4.7(xhigh)

Flash(high)

MiMo-V2.6-Pro

Step5Preview

KimiK3(max)GLM-5.3-Flash

GPT-5.6

(max)DeepSeekV4Pro0813(max)Gemini3.8InklingQwen3.827B(xhigh)

MuseSpark1.3(max)

GPT-5.6Sol(max)GLM-5.3

GPT-5.6Terra(max)

Grok4.6(high)

45678

DeepSeekV4.1Flash30

MiniMax-M3

60

50

40

20

10

0

Luna(max)

Amber=ChinesemodelsY-axis=IntelligenceIndex(higher,better);X-axis=USDpertask(lower,better)Source:ArtificialAnalysis,BarclaysResearch

Industrysize:TheCNY10trnAItarget

TheChinaAcademyofInformationandCommunicationsTechnology(CAICT)quantifiedthescaleofcoreAIindustryatCNY1.2trn(orUSD174billion)in2025,recording40%y/ygrowth.Andby2030,thetargetexpectsanear10-foldrisetoCNY10trnby2030

3

,ora53%CAGRover2026-2030.Notethatthisfigurecanbeunderstoodasvalue-addedrevenuewithoutspecifyingthetypeofAI(seetheMacroeconomicsectionforthedetailedanalysisandmacro

implications).

Capital:TheCNY2trndatacentreinvestmenttosupportcomputecapacity

ThesecondindicatorisBeijing’spushtorampupdata-centreinvestmentoverthenextfiveyears.AsthephysicalbackboneofAIcomputing,datacentresofferinvestorsacleargaugeofcomputingcapacity,capitaldeploymentandinfrastructurereadiness.Accordingtopress

reports,ChinaisdraftingaCNY2trnnationwidedata-centreinvestmentprogram.Theplancouldalsomandatethat80%ofprocurementbesourceddomestically,includingAIchips

4

.

Itisunclearifthisamountwillbesolelyallocatedtodatacentres,butasimpleestimate

assumingacostofCNY40mn/MWsuggestsanother50GWofdatacentrecapacityissettobebuilt.ThissupportssomeofthemarketforecastssuchasBNEF's45.5GWoperatingcapacityby2030(Figure4).

3"China'sAI-relatedindustriestotop10trlnyuanby2030:official",theSupremePeople'sProcuratorateofthePRC,6March2026

4"ChinapreparestwotrillionyuanplantofundnationwideAIbuild-out",9June2026,theBusinessTimes

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FIGURE4.China'sdatacentrecapacitymaymorethandoublereaching45GWindataby2030

MW

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

YangtzeRiverDeltaBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei

GreaterBayAreaNorthandNorthwest

SouthwestRestofChina

FIGURE5.Statusofdatacentrecapacities

39,857

6,373

EarlystageTotal

20,600

8,066

4,818

MW

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

LiveUnder

construction

Committed

Source:BNEF,BarclaysResearchSource:BNEF,BarclaysResearch

Adoptionrate:ManufacturingandICTadoptionlikelyahead

Whilecleargovernmenttargets,theexplicitgoalofreaching70%penetrationby2027and90%penetrationby2030arenotclearlydefinedgiventhelackofdetailsregarding

"penetration","agent"and"intelligentterminals".

Officialdatashowpenetrationsurpassed30%amongmanufacturerswithannualrevenue

aboveCNY20mnbyend-2025

5

.Fornon-manufacturing,earlierdataindicateadoptionratesof13%inretail,10%intelecommunicationsand7%inhealthcare

6

.Gartnerestimatesjust5%ofChineseenterpriseshadAIinproductionin2025,butexpectsthefiguretorisesharplyto50%by2027

7

.

Togainfurtherinsightontheadoptionrates,ouranalysisidentifiedover500largeChinese

companieswithnearly17,000mentionsofAIinfilingsorpublicdisclosures,ledbysoftwareandmanufacturingsub-sectors(Figure6).WhengroupedaccordingtotheninebroadsectorsundertheChina'sAI+ActionPlans(Figure7),manufacturingdominateswitha62%share,aheadofICT(19%)andcommercialservices(14%).Incomparison,basedonthesameexercisetrackingUScompanies'filings,thefindingpointstosimilardominancebythesoftwaresector,but

followedbymanyservicessectorssuchasfinancial,ITandprofessionalservices(Figure8).

5"China'scoreAIindustryscaletops1.2trlnyuanin2025:official",Xinhua,3March2026

6“China'sAIcomputingpowerdevelopmentisbooming,anditisbecominganewdrivingforceforthedevelopmentofthedigitaleconomy”,CCTVC,14December2023

7"GlobalCompaniestoAdoptChineseAIat50%Rateby2027",theChosunDaily,9August2026

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Energy

1%

ContributionofAImentionedincompanyfilingsSource:AlphaSense,BarclaysResearch

Commercial15%

ICT

18%

Agriculture0%

Transport1%

Manufacturing62%

Services

0%

Robots

0%

Goods

3%

FIGURE6.ChinesecompaniesmentioningAIarelargelysoftwareandmanufacturing…

FIGURE7.…intheformatofChina'sAI+classifications,manufacturingandICTleadinadoption

EntertainmentCommunicationsEquipmentCapitalMarkets

InteractiveMedia&ServicesDiversifiedConsumerServicesElectricalEquipment

Semiconductors&Machinery

ElectronicEquipment,…Software

0%5%10%15%20%

ContributionofAImentionedintotalcompanyfilingsSource:AlphaSense,BarclaysResearch

InvestorsshouldnotethatthisdatasetrepresentsonlyafractionofChina'smorethan55mnregisteredprivateenterprises

8

,suggestingAIadoptionremainsskewedtowardlargerfirms.ArecentWorldBankandPekingUniversitystudy,basedonjob-postinganalysis,foundAI

penetrationreached58%amonglistedcompaniesand21%forgenerativeAI,comparedwithjust2.3%and0.2%,respectively,amongnon-listedfirms

9

.

FIGURE8.UnlikeChina,UScompaniesmentioningAIaremoresoftwareandservicesthanmanufacturing

Biotechnology DiversifiedConsumerServices HealthCareTechnologyCommercialServices&Supplies

InteractiveMedia&Services

Semiconductors&

MediaProfessionalServices

ITServicesCapitalMarketsSoftware

0%10%20%30%40%

FIGURE9.Adoptionrates:listedvsnon.listedChinesefirms

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

AnyAIEarlierAIGenAI

ListedfirmsNon-listedfirms

ContributionofAImentionedincompanyfilings

Source:AlphaSense,BarclaysResearchSource:PekingUniversity,WorldBank,BarclaysResearch

AIapplicationdevelopmentandconsumeradoption

Additionally,investorscanalsotrackinnovationmomentum,withGenAImodelsand

applicationsseeingarisingshareinglobalAI-relatedpatents,from4.2%in2017to8.7%in2025(Figure10),drivenparticularlybyLLMs,diffusionmodelsandmulti-modalsystems

10

.China-

basedinventorspublishedover43,000GenAIpatentfamiliesin2024and2025.AndasofAugust

8"OverwhelmingmajorityofbusinessentitiesinChinafromprivatesector",XinhuaNews,6November2024

9"NowHiring:Firm-LevelAdoptionofGenerativeAIinChina"Li,Liu,Wang,WangandYuNationalSchoolofDevelopment,PekingUniversity,WorldBank,July29,2026

10"PatentTrendsUpdateinGenAI",WorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization,2026

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2026,totalregisteredAImodelservices

11

alreadyreached1,112,doubletheyear-earlierlevel,whilethenumberofregisteredGenAIapplicationsroseto731

12

(Figure11).

FIGURE10.GenAI'sgrowingshareinglobalAI.relatedpatents

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

4.2%6.1%8.7%

201720232025

Source:WorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization,BarclaysResearch

FIGURE11.GrowingdevelopmentofGenAIproducts

1,112

731

538

302263

Dec2024Aug2025Aug2026

GenAImodelservicesGenAIapplications

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Source:CyberspaceAdministrationofChina,BarclaysResearch

IntermsofGenAIpatentowners,10oftheworld'stop15companiesareheadquarteredin

China,ledbyTencent,PingAnInsuranceandBaidu.OutsideChina,Japan'sSoftBankGroupistheworld'slargest,followedbyAlphabet(7th),Microsoft(9th),IBM(10th)andSamsung

Electronics(13th).

FIGURE12.GenAIpatentsduring2014.2025:Chinesecompaniesdominate

ChinaSouthernPowerGrid(China)

TsinghuaUniversity(China)

Samsung(Korea)

ByteDance(China)

Alibaba(China)

IBM(US)

Microsoft(US)

ZhejiangUniversity(China)

Alphabet(US)

StateGrid(China)

ChineseAcademyofSciences(China)

Baidu(China)

PingAnInsurance(China)

Tencent(China)

SoftBank(Japan)

05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

Source:WorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization,BarclaysResearch

Lastly,whileChina'sAIambitionclearlyprioritizesindustryadoption,weconsiderconsumer-levelAIadoptionequallyimportant,asfinalconsumergoodsandservices(suchasAIPCandhumanoids)willdependheavilyonend-users'evolvingAIacceptanceanddependence.

AccordingtoChinaInternetNetworkInformationCenter(CNNIC),totalGenAIusersreached602mnpeopleasofDecember2025(249mninDecember2024and515mninJune2025),

11ReferstounderlyingAItechnology,modeltrainingandhosting,APIinterfaces,orcloudcomputingplatformsprovidedbytechnologyvendors.Examples:OpenAIAPI,AlibabaCloudBailian,GoogleCloudVertexAI,etc.

12ReferstoAIsoftwarewithanindependentproductformfactorandacompleteuserinterface(UI),specificallydesignedtomeetspecificneeds.Examples:ChatGPT,Kimi,Midjourney(standalonedrawingsoftware).

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covering42.8%ofpopulation(Figure13).ButthisdiffersfromthecalculationbyVisual

Capitalist

13

thatcoverstheworkingpopulation,whichsuggestsChina's16.4%penetrationrateislowerthantheUSandmanyAsianeconomies(Figure13).

FIGURE13.GenerativeAIusersinChina

AxisTitle

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Users

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

June2025Dec2025Penetration(RHS)

Dec2024Users

June2024

Source:CNNIC,BarclaysResearch

FIGURE14.AIadoptionrateofworkingpopulation

Thailand

Indonesia

China

Mongolia

India

Philippines

Malaysia

Japan

Vietnam

US

Taiwn

SouthKorea

Australia

NewZealand

Singapore

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1H20251Q2026

Source:VisualCapitalist,BarclaysResearch

SustainableInvesting:Power,water,labourandregulations

DaveDai,CFA(i)BarclaysBank,HongKong

Fromasustainabilityperspective,weexaminecriticalconstraintsonAIdeployment,includingpowerandwateravailability,socialconsequences,andregulatorypriorities.SeveralofthesechallengesdifferfromthoseintheUS(seeThematicsection),despitesimilarlyrapidAI

adoption.

Powersupply:Unlikelyabindingconstraint

Datacentresareenergyintensiveandwaterdependent.AccordingtoBNEF,datacentres

consumed131TWhofelectricityin2025(1.3%oftotalconsumption),andthatcouldexpandto329TWh(2.5%)by2030(Figure15),assuming5%ofannualpowerdemandgrowthduring

2026-30.Inamoreoptimisticcases,WoodMackenzieandtheNationalElectricity

Administrationforecast774TWhand800TWh,respectively,by2030,liftingtheirshareofpowerconsumptionto6.0%and6.2%,respectively(Figure16).

13Source:MicrosoftAIDiffusionReportQ12026.BasedonestimatesofMicrosoftusersthatuseAIatleast90minutespermonth,adjustedfortheworking-agepopulation(Age15-64).

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FIGURE15.Datacentres:risingelectricitysharebutstillatlowsingledigitsby2030...

11.2%

6.6%

2.5%

1.3%

20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

As%oftotalAs%ofservices

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration,BNEF,companydata,BarclaysResearch

FIGURE16....alternativeforecastspointto6%ofpowerdemandby2030

TWh

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

-

BNEFWoodMacNEA

DatacentreconsumptionAs%ofnationaldemand(RHS)

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Source:WoodMackenzie,NationalElectricityAdministration,BarclaysResearch

Toexamine'sChina'selectricitysupplysecurityandcapacitybuffers,thecountryisfirstfullyself-sufficientinthermalcoal,whichwasusedtogenerate54%ofpowergenerationin

2025.Renewables,hydro,andnuclearaccountedfor22%,14%and5%,respectively,whicharelargelydependentondomestictechnologieswithlimitedimportedmaterials.Oilandgas,

whichstillneedstobeimported,accountedforonly3-4%ofpowergeneration.

Onadditionalsupplies,the15thFive-YearPlan(2026-2030)publishedinearly2026includedasimultaneousexpansionofnon-fossilandcoalcapacities(Figure17).Thisisanimportant

playbookasChina'scoal-firedbuildoutusuallytakesonlytwotothreeyearswithalesscomplexpermittingprocess,whichcouldplayakeysupportingroleinthecaseofhigher-than-expecteddatacentrepowerdemand.Lastly,China'scurrentloadfactorofcoal-firedpowerhasbeen

under-utilised,leavingheadroomtosupportunexpecteddemand(Figure18).Theplanalsoincludeslargerinvestmentintransmissioncapex,whichshouldsupportmoretransmittedpowerfromWesterntoEasternChina,wherecomputingdemandislarger(WeeklySpotlight:

China’spowergridambition,2February2026).

FIGURE17.China'selectricitysecurityisnotanissuegivenself-sufficiencyincoalsupply

GW

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

20252030E

FossilfuelSolarandwindHydroNuclear

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration,BarclaysResearch

FIGURE18.Coalpowerloadfactorhastrendeddown

HuanengPowerasaproxy

Source:Companydata,BarclaysResearch

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Waterrisk:Morelocalthansystemic

Waterremainsahighlylocalisedconstraint.Weestimatedata-centrepowerconsumptionwillrequireapproximately194mnm³and493mnm³ofwaterin2025and2030,respectively,basedonawaterusageeffectiveness(WUE)of1.5

14

.Althoughthisaccountsforonly0.03%and0.08%ofnationalwatersupply(Figure19),significantlybelowmanyAsiandata-centremarkets,localwaterstressmaystillemergewheredemandisconcentratedandsupplyisconstrained.

AsdiscussedinChinaTMTs:Greeneffortswithroomtostrengthenamiddigitalboom(26

November2024),underChina'sEastDataWestComputing(EDWC)initiative,launchedin2022,10high-density,low-carbondata-centreclustersarebeingdevelopedacrosseighthubs.

Althoughwesternprovincesofferamplepowersupply,wateravailabilityremainsagrowingconstraintincertainregions,particularlyInnerMongoliaandNingxia(Figure20).

FIGURE19.Datacen