中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状-SPRP-CN-Index.ppt

1、中国城镇基本养老保险制度财务可持续性研究 The Financial Sustainability of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System in China 中国社科院世界社保研究中心 Centre for International Social Security Studies(CISS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS),2016年北京,负责人：郑秉文 教授 Dir. by 2037, the retirement age for female will reach 60 years old, an

2、d the retirement age for male will be 65 years old. 6.账户基金制度累计结余的投资收益率为7%；Assuming rate of return of accumulated balance of Urban Basic Pension system is 7%.,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,（二）城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Demographics of enterpr

3、ise employees basic pension system 表1 2015-2050年城镇职工基本养老保险制度抚养比预测,资料来源：精算团队提供的数据。, Table1 Dependency Ratio of enterprise employees Pension system（prediction value, 2015 to 2050, %）,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Financial Sustainability Prediction of Enterprise Employee s Basic Pension System, 基金收入：持续增加，2020年以

4、前基金收入增长速度保持在14%左右，之后基金收入规模扩张速度放缓，占当期财政收入的比重从2020年的21.02%上升到2035年的23.87%，之后缓慢下降到2050年的22.97%。 Revenue. In the calculation period, the fund revenue will keep increasing. Before 2020, the growth rate of fund revenue will keep at 14% and then the growth is slow down. Fund revenue will account for 17% to

5、 24% of homochronous fiscal revenue. The ratio will increase from 21.02% in 2020 to 23.87% in 2035, and then gradually decrease to 22.97% in 2050. 基金支出： 2030年之前，基金支出占当年财政收入缓慢上升，之后制度赡养率上升并处于高位，基金支出规模开始扩大，其占当期财政收入的比例快速上升到2050年的24.13%。 Expenditure. Fund expenditures will account for 13%24% of homochron

6、ous fiscal revenue. Before 2030, the ratio increase gradually. And then the dependency ratio is at the high level, the fund expenditures begin to expand and the ration will increase to 24.13% in 2050.,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Financial Sustainability Prediction of Enterprise Employee s Basic Pension Syst

7、em,图1 2015-2050年城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支预测 资料来源：根据精算团队提供的数据。,Figure1 Fund Revenue and expenditure of Enterprise Employees Basic Pension System,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,（三）机关事业单位基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI( government or

8、gans and public institutions )Pension System Operation 表1 2015-2050年机关事业单位在职人员预测 单位：万人,资料来源：张盈华，机关事业单位“名义账户”制养老保险及其长期财务可持续性分析，载开发研究，2015年第3期，第8页。, Table 1 Demographic Prediction of GOPI（2015 to 2090, 10 thousand）,Source: Zhang Yinghua, Notional Defined Contribution Pension System of GOPI and Analysi

9、s on its Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, Research on Development, NO.3, 2015:p.8.,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,（三）机关事业单位基本养老保险制度运行的预测, 表2 2015-2050年机关事业单位和企业的养老保险制度赡养率比较,结论：因机关事业单位招募条件较严格，要求应征者具备较高学历水平，机关事业单位的内部赡养率明显高于企业,Prediction

10、and Evaluation to GOPI(government organs and public institutions )Pension System Operation, Table 2 Dependency Ratio of GOPI or Urban Enterprise Pension system,Conclusion：The dependency Ratio of GOPI is higher than enterprises employees old age insurance.,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluatio

11、n to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,(三)机关事业单位制度基金收支预测/Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI 基金收入：持续增加，各年基金收入占当年财政收入比在4-6%之间。2050年之前，机关事业单位在编人数扩增，基金收入规模扩张速度较快，占当年财政收入的比例从4%升至5.5%； Revenue. In the calculation period, the fund revenue will keep increasing, but the growth rate will increase

12、first and then decrease. The growth rate of fund revenue will be constant at 7% between 2040 and 2046, and it will decrease to 6.8% in 2050(see Figure 2). Besides, fund revenue will account for 4%6% of homochronous fiscal revenue. Before 2050, the ratio will rise from 4% to 5.5%, after 2050, it will

13、 rise slightly from 5.5% to 6%, primarily as a result of expectation that the permanent staff of GOPI will increase first and decrease. 基金支出：先减后增，各年基金支出占当年财政收入比在4-9%之间。在2035年之前，延退政策抑制领取待遇人数扩增的速度，基金支出占当年财政收入比重下降；2035年之后，延退过渡期结束，加之制度赡养率上升并处于高位，基金支出规模开始扩大； Expenditure. In the calculation period, fund e

14、xpenditure will decrease first and then increase, which will account for 4%9% of the homochronous fiscal revenue. The growth rate of fund expenditure will be about 7%, and after 2034, the rate will increase from 8.1% in 2034 to 11.4% in 2041.Before 2035, the delay retirement policy restrains the gro

15、wth in the number of beneficiaries, and the ratio of fund expenditure to homochronous fiscal revenue drops; after 2035, the transition period of delay retirement will be over, and the dependency ratio will rise and remain high, the scale of the fund expenditure will begin to,三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Pred

16、iction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation,资料来源：根据精算团队提供的数据绘制而成。,Figure 2 The fund revenue and fund expenditure of GOPI (%),图2 机关事业单位基金收支预测(%),三、中国城镇基本养老保险制度运行的预测 Prediction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation, 历史债务：即转轨成本，是原有制度下所积累的养老金权益的折现值，

17、包括“老人”的退休金和“中人”视同缴费的账户价值。各年分摊的历史债务占当年财政收入的比重逐年下降，大约每10年下降一个百分点； History Debts of the system. That is Transition Cost of pension system which equals to the current value of the pension rights and interests accumulated under the old system, including two parts of the “old workers” pension expenditure

18、and “transition workers” pension expenditure which is corresponding to deemed contribution. The history debts will be shared year by year, which declines by one percentage point approximately every 10 year.,Table3 The proportion of history debts in homochronous fiscal revenue（in 2015 to 2050, %） 图3

19、2015-2050年机关事业单位制度历史债务占同期财政收入的比重,样本国家：德国、瑞典、法国和西班牙 Sample Countries: Sweden、Germany、France and Spain （1）政府负责的DB制度待遇水平将合理下降 Pension Benefits of DB plan will reduce gradually （2）提高法定退休年龄，逐渐实现男女同龄退休 Raise retirement age, gradually realizing the equal retirement age of men and female （3）建立奖惩机制，通过惩罚提前退休、

20、奖励延迟退休，充分发挥人力资本作用。 Establish the Rewards and Punishments Mechanism linked with legal Retirement Age （4）运用精算技术修正制度参数，双重约束下引入人口老龄化因子建立财务自我反馈机制，增强财务可持续 Establish Financial Balance Mechanism via introducing the aging population factor （5）发挥市场机制作用，逐步从单一的公共养老金制度模式向多层次养老保险制度体系迈进 Make full use of market mec

21、hanism to push the pension system from a single mode to multiple-level pension system,四、欧盟国家公共养老金制度改革的经验借鉴,EU Public Pension System Reform and Its Experiences,（1）降低社会保险费率，合理确定缴费基数 Reduce the contribution rate of old age insurance and establish the reasonable contribution base （2）推进实现全国统筹，增强制度的便携性 Pr

22、omote National Pooling as soon as possible to Enhance the Portability of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System （3）坚持精算平衡原则，增强制度财务可持续性 Enhance the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension System via the principle of Actuarial Balance 采用长期精算技术，合理确定制度参数，例如，记账利率和计发月数 Taking long-term actuarial technology and use reasonable system parameters, such as, accounting rate 建立正常养老金调整机制，以适应新常态 Establish Normal Pension Adjustment Mechanism Adapting to Chinas New Normal 渐进式延迟退休年龄，构建奖惩机制 Delay Legal Retirement Age and Construct Rewards and Punishment Mechanism,五、完善城镇基本养老保险制度的政策建议 Policy Proposa